Grizzlies/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hey- I got some good news. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses in the NBA. It’s literally how Memphis scores (because their shooting efficiency isn’t actually that great), they just drive and fly up the court and draw fouls. The Nuggets have adopted a much faster pace recently and they’re in a comfortable spot at home. Both of these high-octane offenses should fuel each other, and they have good matchups, too. Jokic and the Denver size can thrive on offense, but we all know that Denver doesn’t like to play much defense. Memphis will take advantage and even though they’re the better defensive team, I like the Nuggets’ recent offensive rhythm and I expect it to go unchanged Tuesday night. I like a game closer to 240.
Put in some knee-deep WORK today to recapture my understanding of the ol association. I thought I already had a fine perspective, I’ve certainly put in the work, but it’s important to keep iterating. On that bright note, I give you some early premiums.
Jazz -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Jazz treated their game against the Cavs like we thought they would, barely putting for a full effort in the process and only playing most of their key guys (Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen) around 30 minutes or less. We don’t know if they’ll rest players tomorrow but indications suggest not, considering. The Pistons are only off one extra day of rest and while they can be feisty, they’re mostly 5-6 scale roster shouldn’t be enough to overcome a 6-8 scale roster on Utah. The Jazz get a nice reprieve at home for a Thursday game and then a long break to pair with it (they don’t play all weekend), so plenty of reason to finish their road trip with a bang.
Warriors/Knicks over 224 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this number; I have it at 234. The Warriors looked good without Curry at Toronto, and I love that boost in momentum for Jordan Poole. Dude hasn’t looked great but one thing he’s good at and continues to be: high paced, assist-laden drives where he can spark an offense. Of course if he drops 43 points, even better. The Warriors may experience more chemistry knowing they need to come together and pick up the slack without Curry. James Wiseman returned from the G-league against Philly and gave the team a good burst of energy, too. This is why Kerr practiced so much with his bench early; it’s as if he knew they would need to adjust during the season. The Knicks have been red-hot and while their defense has been elite, their offense is also top 10. They’ve slowed down a little, but like any team they have the proclivity to play faster against a team like Golden State. I think the pace will be high, the game will be full of beautiful passing, and we’ll see a high-scoring battle. The Knicks’ efficiency is set to digress, too, IMO, and I think Golden State can force them out of their comfort zone (which will only mean turnovers, fouls, and more points). OVER.
I have no idea why St Bonaventure is a favorite tonight. The Bonnies are 0-4 straight up on the road this year; that includes a loss at Canisius and a 17 point loss at Buffalo. After losing a boatload of experience from last year’s team, the Bonnies rank just 358th in “Continuity” according to KenPom. While this is a fade of the Bonnies given the spot, Siena is no slouch this year either. The Saints have outright wins over Florida State(won by 17) and Seton Hall, and they led Ole Miss at Halftime. Siena will have the edge on the boards tonight as well as at the Free Throw line(74.5% FT percentage). I have seen no reason to expect St Bonaventure to hold up well on the road, and I think they fall once again tonight.
*CBB(0.5u): Oral Roberts TT OVER 83.5 vs South Dakota State–7 PM CT
Oral Roberts averages over 85 PPG, shoots 36.5% from beyond the arc, and turns the ball over less than 10 times per game. To top it all off, they run at a Top 30 pace in the country, making this an offense you want to back. While South Dakota State has held high-flying offenses like Arkansas and Alabama into the 70’s, it took extreme measures to do so; Arkansas turned the ball over 20 times, and Alabama shot less than 40% from the floor. Let’s not forget that the Jackrabbits allowed 93 to Stephen F Austin and 81 to Montana; this is not a Top 200 defense in the country. Knowing that pace will be on our side and ORU takes tremendous care of the basketball, I expect the Golden Eagles to get into the upper-80’s.
I always give out free picks on the Bet US NBA show Mon-Wed at 2:30 so check me out there if I don’t offer much here the next 2 weeks. Let’s get to our few picks today:
Hornets/Kings 1H O119.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Parlay: 1H O119.5 + Kings 1H -5.5 (+240), to win 1.2 units
I don’t see how this doesn’t go over. The Hornets don’t play defense, they’re off a back to back, even worse. Scary Terry only played 19 min last night so he should bring some juice/speed for Charlotte, while the Kings are back in-rhythm in a comfy spot at home where they can blow anyone out. I don’t see how Charlotte, a team I can’t play on right now, can keep up. They’re too undisciplined right now.
Bucks -1 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Pels are playing some sloppy basketball right now, committing 57 fouls in their last 2 games. They can’t do that against the Bucks, who draw the 2nd most fouls in the NBA (over 18 per game) and will continuously drive to the basket at will on you. The Pelicans are a great team but they’re slumping right now and the Bucks will take pride in showing little brother how to play proper basketball tonight. Love Giannis to win battles against Zion, too.
Leans:
Cavs -6: Jazz on a back to back tomorrow but CLE has some big lookahead games this week. CLE is the better team, by far, and I like how they matchup. They’re also 11-4-1 ATS at home. Lookaheads have me off it.
Blazers -7.5: Everyone’s out for OKC but this could be one of those games where weird shit happens. They’re still at home and just beat Memphis with a shallow roster, so I’m off it.
The NBA continues to be really insane and I’m just not willing to put everyone’s money on the line this often anymore. I’ll be splitting my NBA season into two parts, Oct-Dec and then Jan-June, knowing that the second half will be way less ridiculous.
For those on a terminal premium package, I’ll extend your subscription for two weeks. For the next two weeks, I’ll always give out leans but my NBA plays will be sparse until January.
Got a pregnancy appt. with my wife this morning so any plays/leans this Monday will be delayed. Thanks all,
Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn vs. Marshall -12.5 O/U 40.5
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Brooks Stadium — Conway, S.C.
UConn: Motivation – High – They finally got to a bowl but it’s fun to party in Myrtle Beach.
Marshall: Motivation – Medium Low – Bad opponent and might go out the night before.
Home Field – None
Charles Huff, Marshall – 0-1 ATS in Bowl Games.
Jim Mora Jr, UCONN – 2-2 ATS in Bowl Games
Marshall has a .87 yards per play advantage over the Huskies.
UCONN had a nice finish to their season winning 5 of their last 7 games including Boston College and Liberty.
Marshall’s defense ranks 2nd in success rate and number 1 in defensive EPA per play.
I have Marshall -11 so no play but a slight lean to UCONN.
Tuesday, Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan +4 O/U 54
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Albertsons Stadium — Boise, Idaho
San Jose State: Motivation – Low – They go to Boise all the time and probably was robbed or at least assaulted while they were there.
Eastern Michigan: Medium Low – These kids got totally screwed. Now they might drink to just block out the fact that they are in Boise Idaho. (Kip)
Home Field: None
Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan – 3-1 ATS in bowl games.
Brent Brennan, San Jose State – 0-1 ATS in bowl games.
I give San Jose credit for getting to a bowl game this year, but some of their wins are credit to the +12 turnovers ranking 5th in the nation in turnover ratio.
San Jose State has a +.82 yards per play advantage, but I would argue that the Eagles had the better finish to their season winning four of their last 5 games to San Jose State losing two out of their last three.
I have San Jose State -2 here so I think a small play on Eastern Michigan is warrented.
I played Eastern Michigan at +4.5 but I still like it over the 3.
Eastern Michigan +4 – 1.5 stars
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty +5 O/U 54
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, Fla.
Toledo: Motivation – Medium Low – They won the Mac and now it’s time to party.
Liberty: Motivation – Medium – This team lost their coach but they at least do get a very good one coming in.
Home Field: None
Jason Candle, Toledo – 1-4 ATS in bowl games which is pretty bad.
Liberty lost Hugh Freeze to Auburn, but they know that they can look forward to Jamey Chadwell.
SOS is pretty equal at 128 for Toledo and 121 for Liberty.
Toledo has a .27 net yards per play advantage.
Toledo is a sloppy team ranking 116th in turnover ratio at -8 to Liberty at -3.
Both defenses are pretty solid here ranking top 10 in success rate and top 21 in EPA.
Barring any setbacks, I could see this going under, but I also like Liberty some and I have this game a Pickem.
Under 54 points – 2 stars and Liberty +5 – 1 stars
Wednesday, Dec. 21
New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky +4.5 O/U 56
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.
South Alabama: Motivation – High – They haven’t went bowling in a while.
Western Kentucky: Motivation – Medium – Decent matchup on a disappointing season.
Home Field: South Alabama some at 260 miles way.
Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky – 1-1-1 ATS in bowl games.
SOS pretty close with South Alabama at 129th and Western Kentucky at 11th.
Western Kentucky has a .34 net yards per play advantage here, but the best unit on the field is South Alabama’s defense ranking 16th in success rate and 12th in defensive EPA par play.
My power ratings align with the market here, but I am honestly not sure why? South Alabama has looked great this year while Western Kentucky has disappointed.
The Sun belt is better than Conference USA and Western Kentucky’s quarterback has been wishy washy with this bowl game.
South Alabama -4.5 – 2 stars
Thursday, Dec. 22
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor -4.5 O/U 50
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, Texas
Air Force: Motivation – High – Get to play a power 5.
Baylor: Motivation – Medium – Good coach in Aranda.
Home Field: Baylor is only 108 miles away!
Troy Calhoun, Air Force – 7-4
Dave Aranda, Baylor – 1-0
There is a massive strength of schedule discrepancy here with Baylor at 15th and Air force at 116th.
Baylor has a .34 net yards per play advantage over Air Force.
I like how Baylor has three weeks to prepare for the option attack.
I have Baylor -7.75
Baylor -4.5 – 2 stars
Friday, Dec. 23
Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri vs. Wake Forest -1 O/U 60.5
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
Wake Forest: Motivation – Medium – They probably wanted bigger and better things but at least they go on vacation.
Missouri: Motivation – Medium High – This team accomplished a lot this year compared to others.
Home Field: None
Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
Dave Clawson, Wake Forest – 3-5 ATS in bowl games.
Missouri will be without their best WR in Dominic Lovett who had over twice the yards than the second best in the team.
This is basically Wake’s offense ranking 26th in success rate against Missouri’s defense ranking 20th in success rate. Missouri though does give up a lot of explosive plays ranking 126th in the nation.
Missouri had the harder strength of schedule here ranking 29th to Wake Forest at 59th.
Missouri has a .15 net yard per play advantage.
Small lean to Wake Forest.
Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana +6.5 O/U 58
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Independence Stadium — Shreveport, La.
Houston: Motivation – Medium – Not the season that they hoped for.
Louisiana: Motivation – Medium High – They step up slightly in class.
Home Field: None – Same distance for both schools around 250 miles away.
Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
Dana Holgorsen, Houston – 2-7 ATS in bowl games.
Louisiana
QB Ben Wooldridge (Injury)
RB Terrence Williams (Injury)
WR Michael Jefferson (Opt-out)
Ben Wooldridge was knocked out with two games left and Michael Jefferson is Louisiana’s best WR.
Looks like Houston QB Clayton Tune will play in the game which is huge.
Louisiana has been Jeckyl and Hyde this year losing to Louisiana Monroe and beating Marshall and Georgia Southern.
This game is Clayton Tune’s last opportunity to impress and go out with a bang.
Houston has a .66 net yards per play advantage.
Houston has had the harder SOS ranking 68th to Louisiana ranking 102.
I have Houston -10 with the injury and opt outs, but I really find it hard to trust Dana Holgorsen in bowl games so I’ll make my play small.
This is the time of year that you can play on some Sunday NBA games, as teams need to start taking their seasons more seriously. January and beyond will be even more predictable and I can’t fookin wait.
We only seem to lose by BS lately. The Cavs faced Dallas without Luka and still couldn’t cover -4? The line moved to -8.5! The Wizards led against the Clippers for nearly the ENTIRE contest, and then they don’t cover +6.5? Unreal.
Anywho, onto more NBA and l expect the ball to bounce our way more today:
Pacers win (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is telling us to bet on Indiana. The Knicks have won 5 straight road games and finally get to head back home for a big game Tuesday night against Golden State. They’re probably exhausted, while the Pacers were able to get home before the weekend started and prepare for a big win. Sometimes you just have to follow the sportsbooks’ clues and this feels like one of those situations.
Nets/Pistons under 230 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is dropping for good reason. This is an uninteresting game for Brooklyn but they’ve been playing great basketball and, again, a lot of that is because of some stellar defensive effort lately. If they care, they should incredibly limit Detroit. If they don’t care, they won’t push the pace or be as efficient on offense. Either way, I like an under here. Detroit is due for negative regression of offense, too. I have it at 223.
Hornets/Nuggets 1H O120.5 (-112), to win 2 units
I’ll avoid the full game in case it’s a blowout and the score slows down, as we tend to see in many of these contests, but I don’t see how this isn’t a hyper-paced, super high-scoring affair. Denver is all about offense and Charlotte, even after their coach put them on blast, STILL showed how little they care about playing defense. Both fast paced teams and with LaMelo back, the Hornets run much faster.
Well a 4-5 night wasn’t that awesome Friday but we were on some good sides. I don’t feel as annoyed by it as I usually am. I feel a better handle and rhythm for our betting future in the NBA and let’s keep riding it. More UFC below, too!
NBA:
Wizards +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I think Washington can be feisty today. Even if Beal doesn’t play, and I think he will, the Clippers had a hard time fending off Porzingis and Kuzma and other Washington scorers in their previous contest a week ago. Powell and Zubac are OUT for the Clippers– that’s a good thing for WAS, and Paul George might sit out this one, too. Kawhi isn’t quite comfortable enough to take on the full scoring load for his squad just yet. Washington keeps it close either way.
Cavs -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I just think the Cavs are a really bad matchup for Dallas. And now the Mavericks are without Kleber, which is low-key a huge miss for them since he plays such a key role in spacing on their offense and defense. The bigs of Cleveland are too much for Dallas and D. Mitchell is playing at a very high level with his supporting cast.
Pels/Suns over 228 (-110), to win 1 unit
These two offenses just match up really well against each other, and lately the Suns’ defense has been absolute garbage. New Orleans wants to beat the shit out of Phoenix every time and the Suns are seeking revenge after that controversial Zion dunk to finish the Pels’ last win. Animosity, fast pace, explosive scoring on both sides – if this was a playoff game I’d consider an under but, it’s not. The high totals continue in this series – I have it at 235.
UFC:
Cannnonier (-115), to win 1 unit
Both Strickland and Cannonier are seasoned tough guys and deservingly this is a very evenly matched battle. Strickland’s style is just a little too passive for me and Cannonier represents more explosive KO ability, the kind that’s caught Strickland before. Lately Jared’s only losses are to the most elite (aka Adesanya) but he’s more ready and more dangerous than Strickland, from my perspective.
Ismagulov (+160), to win 1.6 units
Ismagulov is a very smart fighter who picks apart his opponents and wins via decision over and over again. He’s only lost 1 bout because of that style and I think he out-classes Tsarukyan in this one, too.
This is a weird back to back game for Washington being that they just had a bye week right after playing this Giants team. Either way, what the heck is Washington doing here laying more than three points to a divisional opponent like the Giants? Are the G-men overrated? Yes, but that doesn’t mean the Commies are a good football team either… Over the last eight head to head matchups, the Giants are 6-2 ATS against this team. The recent game that these two teams just played back on December 4th ending in a tie, and the Box score doesn’t tell me that it should have been all that different. Looking at the metrics, the Giants are a net -.6 yards per play to Washington’s -.5. The Giants rank 13th in offensive EPA to the Giants at 26th. The Commander’s defense is certainly better ranking 7th in EPA to the Giants at 29th, but the Commies came off of that Giants game a bit banged up themselves, and I am not sure an extra week might be enough to get a couple of key guys back on defense such as DE Chase Young with a knee issue, DE Efe Obada with a finger, and Benjamin St Juste with an ankle injury as well. The biggest loss for the Commanders is their center, and the leader of their offensive line in Tyler Larson hat just happened last game. It will take a while to adjust. Both of these teams are in the playoff hunt at 7-5-1 and both will be motivated to win this game.
Giants +5 – 3 stars
Indianapolis vs Minnesota -3.5 O/U 47.5
I guess it’s another fade the bye week situation here, but it isn’t hard to see that the Colts are pretty much out of playoff contention while the Vikings are fighting for 1st place and the bye. After the Colts beat the Raiders following the firing of Frank Reich, everyone jumped on Jeff Saturday’s nuts thinking that he can actually fix this team. The problem is that Saturday has the cards deeply stacked against him, and he doesn’t have a real offensive coordinator to help guide him. Indy’s in-eptness started to show over the last few weeks losing at home to a bad Pittsburgh team and then getting blown out by the Eagles. If you want a chance to compete with the Vikings, you have to be able to put up some points. The Colts rank 31st in offensive EPA and 28th in passing yards per attempt. Their offensive line is garbage, and they can’t seem to even run the ball with the best back in the whole league. Michelangelo di Lodovico Buonarroti Simoni’s statue of Matt Ryan is quite immobile in the pocket. His career is pretty much toast here and I can see some quit in this team. As bad as the Vikings have shown on defense, they at least rank number 15th in defensive EPA per play while only allowing 4.1 yards per rush. I think the Queens put the Ponies in a quitting situation in the second half. Take Minnesota. You like that?
Vikings -3.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Ravens to +9 with the Packers to -1 – 2 stars
