NBA Premiums, 12.5

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December 4, 2022

Let’s take advantage of some good spots with these incorrect, early lines:

Raptors ML (even), to win 1.5 units

The Celtics are fresh off a tough battle with the Nets in Brooklyn and now they have to turn around, go over the border, and face a Raptors team that’s exceptionally healthy and in a much better spot at home. This is where the great can fall. The Celtics are good but they’re not a Warriors-like team of yesterday that can win 70 games. I think they lose Monday.

Heat +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Grizzlies played Sunday, while the Heat are coming off 3 days of rest from a big OT win against Boston. The injury report suggests this could be a game where a lot of Miami players sit but I think not. The important dudes- Strus, Vincent, Herro, Butler– should all be in. Since we think that’s the case, it’s unlikely Memphis will be able to deal with Miami at full strength, especially in a back to back. Since they’re at home and Ja is a superstar, I’ll take the points instead of the ML.

Pacers/Warriors over 241 (-110), to win 1 unit

This is a sky-high total but it should be. So far the Warriors are unable to play any brand of solid defense this season (it probably has to do with their constant rotations to work-in the young blood), and the Pacers play as fast as any team in the NBA and they’re an offense-first outfit. Two teams that should be chasing one another, I’ll take the over. Only 1 unit since my number has it close at 244.

NFL Week 13 Free Plays

By

Kiev O'Neil

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December 4, 2022

Jacksonville vs Detroit +1 O/U 51.5

I think that it is safe to say that Jacksonville is a better team than Detroit as it is right now, but it isn’t by a huge margin. Detroit was very unhealthy for a good stretch of the season, and now Dan Campbell has his guys locked and loaded here on extra thanksgiving rest to take on the jaguars. Let’s face it, the stats aren’t really showing the true power of this Lions team who ripped off three wins in their last four games and a close loss at home vs Buffalo. Jacksonville right now is dead even in net yards per play while Detroit is -.6 That is not a huge discrepancy here. The Jaguars on the other hand should not have lost a few of their games the way that they did this year, but They did just beat Baltimore and now have Tennessee on deck next week. This looks like a typical old sandwich spot to me where the team could let down some. I think the Lions can get the win here at home being that the stats are close enough to make a case. This one will be a sweat so prepare for that.

Lions +1 – 2 stars

Miami vs San Francisco -4 O/U 46.5

Lots of people look at San Francisco and think of defense, but they do not think of where the weakness lies and that is in the secondary. What people do not know is that two of their three cornerbacks would be second string on many other teams and they are getting by purely on pass rush ranking 8th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in pressure rate. When the 49ers (who rank 2nd to last in strength of schedule) actually paly an offense with a pulse like the Chiefs and the Falcons, this team gave up 44 and 28 points respectively. Last week the Saints and Andy Dalton blew 2 red zone opportunities. On the other side of the ball, the fish have a coach in Mike McDaniel that worked under Kyle Shanahan for years. He will know how to beat the 49ers defense as good as anyone else can. The big issues with the Dolphins is that their defense is quite suspect themselves. Miami only ranks 18th in defensive EPA per play and they give up 4.5 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per play. The Dolphins lost some key defensive contributors like CB Byron Jones, DE Emannuel Ogbah as well as a few others this year. The Fish are 3rd in offensive EPA per play at 29 points per game to the 49ers who, now with a healthy offense and CMC rank 5th in offensive EPA since week 9. I have the 49ers -5.5 in this game but I like the over even more.

Over 46 – 2.5 stars

Teaser: Seattle to -.5 with the Bengals to +8.5 – 2 stars

NBA Premiums, 12.3 and a UFC Parlay

By

Chris R. Farley

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December 3, 2022

One of those nights in the association. Can’t dwell on it- we move on with more picks in the NBA and a parlay in the UFC tonight: It’s kind of gross but we love a lot of favorites today. Hopefully the ball doesn’t bounce away from us in 101 different ways tonight.

Clippers -1.5 (-112), to win 1 unit

We’re taking this bet counting on Kawhi and PG returning for LAC, but just know that there’s a risk involved in doing that. These NBA injury reports are stupid as fuck, so it’s really hard to pull the trigger but if they both do play, this is tremendous value on the home team. The Clippers have been lock-down and big-time winners whenever Kawhi has been back in the lineup, and it looks like that might be the case tonight. Lord knows I love the Kings, but this is a bad spot for them if that’s the case. The Clippers can literally upend the way Sacramento likes to play basketball. Worth a 1 unit play.

Bucks 1H -3.5 (-106), to win 1.5 units

The Bucks were shocked by the Lakers’ charge early in last night’s game and found their rhythm later, but it was still too late to overcome AD and Lebron’s onslaught. The Hornets played over their head all night in a win against the Wizards Friday and then fizzled out late. They were lucky to win. Maybe the Bucks fizzle out later in this one, it’s a tough road spot. but with Middleton and their full crew back, they should dominate the Hornets in this contest. We’ll take ’em early in a spot where they’ll want to take out their anger on a much less talented and much softer Charlotte squad.

Raptors -10.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

It’s ugly but we have to take it. Both off a game last night, the Raptors are a different animal at home and they were EMBARRASSED by the Nets last night. Perfect smash spot for them to get-right. No overanalysis needed.

Rockets/Warriors over 232 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Warriors -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

Neither team will want to play defense tonight after playing last night, and neither squad has played good defense so far this season anyway. Two teams that like to run fast and the Warriors should be able to pile up points at will – only way we can bet this is high-scoring and Warriors.

UFC Parlay: 2 units to win 2.46 units

Kevin Holland Wins + Pavlovich/Tuivasa under 1.5 rounds

College Football Championship Week Free Plays Galore – Sports Investing

By

Kiev O'Neil

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December 3, 2022

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Kansas State vs TCU -2.5 O/U 62

Kansas state feels somewhat like a public dog here although TCU got lucky and maybe should not have beaten them earlier this season when K-State was forced to play with a backup quarterback. TCU has a very efficient offense that finds explosive plays while Kansas State is more of a grind you out. The Horned Frogs is at a nice 1.46 net yards per play to Kansas State at 1.03. Kansas State has the better defense ranking 31st in explosive plays to 39th for TCU, but they also only allow 19.4 points per game to TCU’s 24. I have TCU -.5 in this game so no play on the side. I think that being these two teams rarely get to this position, I could see both of these teams start out a bit slow. Both of these teams have solid defenses and Kansas State, who ranks 99th in Tempo will not want to get into a shootout early. I like the 1st half under here.

1st half under 30.5 – 2 stars

Coastal Carolina vs Troy -8.5 O/U 48.5

This is a home game for Troy. Sadly, Troy would have been a 2.5 favorite here with Grayson McCall healthy at QB for Coastal. He is worth about 8-9 points to the line, and even if he plays, he could be hobbled. The line is correct where it is now, but I see upside on the under. Both teams rank in the 100s in tempo while Troy has a very solid defense and Coastal will be trying to run the ball being that they are on a backup QB Jarrett Guest who only through the ball 23 times last game. I think there is a chance that Coastal can’t put up many points in this game, yet it is a huge game for Troy who only ranks 66th in offensive success rate and 76th in offensive EPA. The weather is calling for maybe a little rain and I am calling for the under.

Under 48.5 – 2 stars

UCF vs Tulane -3 O/U 57

This game is in Tulane, but we also saw it before. UCF went to Tulane on November 12th and beat the Green Wave 38-31. Basically, USC ran all over this team for 336 yards, and the fact that Tulane ranks 55th in opponent rushing success rate giving up four yards per rush, doesn’t bode well for the Green Wave when the Black Knights rank 14th in rushing success rate at 5.51 yards per rush. Tulane has been fortunate at +7 turnovers and they will need them to win this game. Yards per play is about equal here at 1.2 ish. I took the +4 but I still like it enough at +3.5.

UCF +3.5 – 2.5 stars

Fresno State vs Boise State -3 O/U 54

So there is about 4 (1/3rd) games that Jake Haener hasn’t played in which makes many of the stats worthless. Even with the skewed stats, Fresno still has an offensive success rate of 17th to Boise State at 62. Fresno has had the harder schedule IMO having to go to USC as well as Boise without their QB after a trip across the country to UCONN. You have to love the way Fresno State finished the season with Haener back ripping 7 wins in a row while Boise has struggled a few games such as at Wyoming, at Air Force and a home loss vs BYU. I think Fresno is poised to stop the run this game and confuse Freshman quarterback Taylen Green enough to at least cover this spread if not win outright. I have +4.5 in my pocket but +3 is also good IMO.

Fresno +3 – 2.5 stars

College Football Conference Championship Week Free Play – Sports Investing

By

Kiev O'Neil

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December 2, 2022

Utah vs USC -2.5 O/U 67

For all of you that may have been following me before the season, you know that I have a Utah to win the PAC 12 at +250 in my pocket. I have had a full season to watch these teams and I have to say that USC is better team. Caleb Williams is a Heisman finalist and I might give him the win if it ended today. He ranks 3rd in QBR to Cameron Rising ranking 24th. On Paper, USC has the better offense and they rank 55th in explosive plays to Utah ranking 115th, but Utah has the much better defense with a caveat. In Saying that, Utah’s defense feels a little more fake to me when they leave the friendly confines of home and venture out into the world. When Utah was away from home, they went 3-3 as well as almost losing to Washington State. Utah’s opponent’s yards per point goes down from 18.2 at home to 14.1 on the road. These are similar to USC’s numbers. USC is at a monstrous 7.27 yards per play to Utah’s 6.57. When these two teams played back in mid-October, I thought that USC got the short end of the officiating stick at twelve total penalties to five in Salt Lake City making them lose to Utah by only one point. This game may be the PAC 12’s chance to get a team into the playoffs. I have USC winning this game by four points.

USC -2.5 – 3 stars

2nd half over 34 if the number is correct by halftime – 1.5 stars

College Football Week 14 Championship Week Sharp Money Movement

By

Kiev O'Neil

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December 2, 2022

As of Wednesday 11/30/22

Sharp Money On:

Ohio +4.5 to +1.5 vs Buffalo – now there is buyback so money isn’t equal
Troy -4.5 to -8.5 vs Coastal Carolina and now there is some buyback so money isn’t equal.
Georgia -16.5 to -17.5 vs LSU – 37% tickets and 72% of the money.
Fresno State +5 to +3.5 at Boise State — 50% tickets and 83% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

North Texas vs UTSA over 66.5 to 69 – 82% tickets and 99% of the money.
Coastal Carolina vs Troy under 49 to 48 – 38% tickets and 77% of the money.
Clemson vs UNC under 65.5 to 63.5 – 19% tickets and 83% of the money.
Michigan vs Purdue over 48.5 to 51.5 – 52% tickets and 77% of the money.

NFL Week 13 Sharp Money Movement

By

Kiev O'Neil

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December 2, 2022

As of Wednesday 11/30/22

Sharp Money On:

Patriots +5.5 to +4 hosting the Bills – 42% tickets and 72% of the money.
Packers -2 to -4.5 at the Bears – 66% tickets and 98% of the money.
Commanders from PK to -2.5 at the Giants – 30% tickets and 62% of the money.
Seahawks -3 to -7.5 at the Rams – Money has flipped due to buyback.
Saints +6.5 to +4 at the Buccaneers – 61% tickets and 83% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Bills vs Patriots under 45.5 to 43.5 – 41% tickets and 94% of the money.
Browns vs Texans over 44 to 47.5 – 46% tickets and 79% of the money.
Commanders vs Giants under 42 to 40.5 – 80% tickets and 98% of the money.

NFL Week 12 Misleading Final Scores

By

Kiev O'Neil

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December 2, 2022

Dallas out-gained the NY Giants 430 to 300 yet only won 28-20. A 2-0 turnover ratio and poor officiating hurt the spread.

The Patriots out-gained the Vikings 409 to 358 yet lost 33-26. They won the turnover battle 1-0, but poor red zone efficiency hurt the Pats.

The Ravens out-gained the Jaguars 415 to 332 yet lost 28-27. A 2-1 turnover ratio did them in.

NBA Premiums, Full List: 12.2

By

Chris R. Farley

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December 2, 2022

Guess we should’ve taken the Pistons last night, eh?

I want to play on the Bucks tonight against LAL, but we’ll hit pause for now. Khris Middleton returns in his first game back so we’ll wait for him to get warmed up and back in rhythm with his team. It’s also a really weird, one-spot home game for Milwaukee and we never like those situations. In any case, we’ll look to play on the Bucks more moving forward. When healthy, the Bucks are our #1 power rated team and they have a very convenient schedule over the next 1-2 weeks.

A few adds below, and we changed our bet on the Warriors early since the first half was -4.5. I’ll take the first QTR instead. Here’s the full list for Friday. LFG!

Wizards -3 (-110), to win 1 unit

There’s not a lot to like about the Hornets right now, whereas the Wizards seem to be growing exponentially as a team. They should be able to shut down Charlotte’s clunky offense, one that’s 30th in its last 5 games, and the Wizards’ offense is blossoming behind some Kuzma-confidence and burgeoning young players. Beal is pretty nice, too. Go Wiz!

Nuggets/Hawks over 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

John Collins is OUT tonight for Atlanta and that’s a good thing for over bets. He’s an important piece of their defense and it should afford Denver some better looks. The Hawks have been running with a top 10 tempo and they’re even faster at home, rated #3 in pace on their own floor. I think Atlanta can establish that pace and force Denver to play their brand of basketball, which should mean plenty of points. Two talented offenses battling on a Friday and let’s face it, Denver’s defense is never quite up to par. I have this at 235, like the over.

Raptors +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Beautiful spot for the Raptors, who already lost twice to the Nets, off a big loss. Their responses are typically always really strong and since they’ve fallen to Brooklyn already, this game will be circled. Oh yea, and they’re as healthy as they’ve ever been heading into this matchup. The Nets have talent, we know (eye roll), but they’re soft as fuck. Toronto out-toughens Brooklyn in NYC through a lot of paint points and interior talent.

Grizzlies -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

I never like the way Philly matches up against Memphis, even when they’re at full strength. Without Maxey and potentially Tobias Harris, I like them even less. We saw how pedestrian the 76ers can be, particularly on offense, in their Wednesday matchup against the Cavs. The Grizzlies are a top ten net rating team at home in November. They also run faster and tend to be more explosive at home. Philly can go on these runs where they look elite and other runs where they look piss-poor; I think we’re about to see an example of the latter as they sift through injuries. Go Grizz!

Warriors 1Q -2.5 (-110), to the 1.5 units

Warriors -7 (-110), to win 1 unit

The first half line isn’t out yet but hit it when it comes out (prob tomorrow morning). Golden State is really good early, especially at home, and big-time regression is coming for the Bulls, who are on a brutal road stretch right now. This is a great spot for the Warriors to go off and look fantastic after a tough loss to the Mavericks. The Bulls will want this game MUCH less than the Mavericks wanted their win the other night– this should feel easy for the home team. All Warriors for this guy.