Hornets -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hornets are going to win this game– they can attack the rim at will against Houston. I think it’s an easy cover.
CBB Premiums, 1.18
CBB (20-15, +4.47 units):
West Virginia -2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Mountaineers really need this win and back on their home floor, I expect the better offense to settle in and take advantage. TCU is overly reliant on efficient defense but that could falter severely in a tough road spot.
Lafayette +4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I’ll keep fading American here. Yes, they’re back at home, but trust me (I went there for grad school), there’s nothing impressive about that home court. Lafayette is starting to find a little rhythm on offense, they shoot a lot of 3s, and lately they’ve been winning through solid defense. This should be another close game.
St. Louis 1H over 34.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
The Billikens play with an attacking mentality and they’ll look to catch a bad Ramblers’ team off guard from the jump. Their pace and shooting ability should be too much early, but maybe Loyola-Chicago makes halftime adjustments and settles in late. We’ll take an early scoring melee from the away team.
NBA Premiums, 1.18
Another nice day– 5-2 overall with NBA and CBB, so at least that combo is starting to work! We’re actually 18-6 overall the last few days, not too shabby!
Onto more! CBB Picks will be out later today, if I have time, and I’m starting to look at the Australian Open, too. Not that I have any time (lol), but we won a lot last summer.
NBA:
Hawks ML (+114), to win 1.14 units
Hawks/Mavs under 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks are playing good basketball right now, believe it or not. When they need to win by defense, they can win by defense. When they need to outshoot their opponent, they’ve been able to do that, too. John Collins warmed up and back in his normal rotation certainly helps, and D. Murray has been fantastic the last 5 games. Trae Young has found his range too, and seems to have turned a corner in his mentality. Dallas will get Dorian Finney Smith and Jeff Green tonight, but both are coming off missing 20+ games. They’ll be cold, and probably won’t have the wind to hang with a Hawks’ team that’s been aggressive and confident. The Mavs go at a slow pace and their defense has been horrendous recently– I think they tick it up tonight, while the Hawks have been formidable on that side of the court. Like the under, like the Hawks.
Hornets/Rockets over 237 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Yea it’s just hard to not play an over here. These are two of the worst defenses in the NBA and they’re just not improving. The Hornets have allowed 122 points over their last 10 games, while the Rockets have allowed a staggering 123.7 ppg. When two bad teams face each other, it’s usually a showcase of offense since neither team has much to play for this season. The Rockets have been a good offensive rebounding team, while the talent of LaMelo Ball means the Hornets utilize ball movement and assists more than most teams. The staple of a bad defense is when they don’t defend the rim, and neither of these teams are doing this in an adequate fashion. Neither is defending the 3-ball, either. High pace, over.
Cavs +7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Too many points for the Grizzlies here. This is an unfamiliar matchup for both teams but what the Grizzlies do best, attack the rim, is what the Cavs defend best. Even without D. Mitchell today, the interior defense of Cleveland should fend off the explosive offense of Memphis for much of this game. And seven points is just too much for a team that’s deeper than most outfits in the NBA.
CBB Premiums, 1.17
CBB (18-15, +1.97 units):
Alabama/Vanderbilt under 154.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Stackhouse will have his team ready against the Crimson Tide– they always play Bama well and while the Tide are rollin’, I expect some better defense from the home team on the weird, lifted court of the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Belmont 1H -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has gone up too much but Belmont is really comfortable on their home floor and they’ve been lights out lately. They also have revenge on their mind after losing twice last season to a much better version of Murray St. Take them early.
The American Express – Preview & Picks
Si Woo Kim (50-1) captures the Sony Open as we hit our first outright of the season! He also won the American Express back in 2021 so he could be worth another look this week. In terms of the rest of the card, Corey Connors managed to finish inside the top 20 while both of our top 40 placements finished T41 unfortunately.
We begin the California Swing with a unique event, the American Express. The Farmer’s Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am also held in California, will take place in the coming weeks. Something to note is that 12 of the last 13 winners of the American Express played in at least one of the two Hawaiian events.
General Tournament Information:
- Dates: January 19th, 2023- January 22nd, 2023
- Location: La Quinta, California, United States
- Format: 72-hole stroke play
- Thursday-Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
- PGA West Stadium Course
- PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course
- La Quinta CC
- Sunday: PGA West Stadium Course
- Thursday-Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
- Field/ Cut: 156 Pros & 156 Amateurs | Top 65 and Ties – 54 Holes
- Purse/ Winner: $8,000,000 /$1,440,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Historic Cut Line:
- 2022: -7
- 2021: -4 (36 Holes)
- 2020: -9
PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course (2 Rounds)
- Course: PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course
- Course Architect: Pete Dye (1986)
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,187 yards
- Greens: Tifdwarf bermudagrass os/w Poa .110”
- Fairways: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda os/w ryegrass .400”
- Overseeded Rough: 1”
- Non-overseeded Rough: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda 2”
- Stimpmeter: 11.0 feet
- Bunkers: 90-plus
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,187 Yards):
- Harbour Town Golf Links – 7,191 Yards – RBC Heritage
- Colonial Country Club – 7,209 Yards – Charles Schwab Challenge
- Comparable Greens (Tifdwarf bermudagrass os/w Poa .110”):
- TPC Scottsdale – TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa/ perennial rye .100” – WM Phoenix Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
- Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship
PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (1 Round)
- Course: PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course
- Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus (1987)
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,147 yards
- Greens: TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa .110”
- Fairways: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda os/w rye .400”
- Rough: Forman bermudagrass 2’
- Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
- Bunkers: 90-plus
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 5 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,147 Yards):
- Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) – 7,123 Yards – Fortinet Championship
- PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,125 Yards – The Honda Classic
- Harbour Town Golf Links – 7,191 Yards – RBC Heritage
- Comparable Greens (TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa .110”):
- TPC Scottsdale – TifEagle bermuda os/w Poa/ perennial rye .100” – WM Phoenix Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
- El Camaleón Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – WWT Championship at Mayakoba
- Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cadence Bank Houston Open
- PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
La Quinta CC (1 Round)
- Course: La Quinta CC
- Course Architect: Lawrence Hughes (1959)
- Renovation: Damian Pazcuzzo (1999)
- Course Type: Desert/ Parkland
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,060 yards
- Greens: Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed .105”
- Fairways: 328/common bermudagrass .400’
- Rough: Common bermudagrass 1.75’ (last cut is 3 days before tournament start).
- Stimpmeter: 11.5 feet
- Bunkers: 82
- Water Hazards: — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 4,773 sq. ft.
- Comparable Courses:
- Comparable Yardage (7,060 Yards):
- Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 7, 041 Yards – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 7, 041 Yards – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Sea Island Golf Club (Plantation Course) – 7, 060 Yards – The RSM Classic
- Comparable Greens (Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed .105”):
- TPC Scottsdale – TifEagle Bermuda os/w Poa/ perennial rye .100” – WM Phoenix Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (4,773 sq. ft.):
- Albany – 4,500 sq. ft. – Hero World Challenge
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, January 19th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 2: Friday, January 20th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 3: Saturday, January 21st, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Round 4: Sunday, January 22nd, 2023
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
- Thursday: Mostly Sunny 51 F, 8 mp/h SW, 52% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 51 F, 9 mp/h NNW, 35% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Sunny 53 F, 6 mp/h NNW, 30% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 52 F, 5 mp/h ENE, 35% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
This is a unique tournament for several reasons but let’s start with the obvious, the 3-course rotation. The players will play a different course for the first three days rotating between the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta CC. The PGA West facility will host three of the four rounds as the Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course are both on the grounds. La Quinta Country Club is roughly a 5-mile drive from that facility and will be the only travel required for players during this event.
Given that the first three days are at different courses, the lone cut for the event will be made after 54 Holes and not the typical 36 Holes. In 2021, this event only took place at just two courses, so the cut was made after 36 which has skewed the cut line data. The historical cut line for this event has been around -8 after 54 Holes.
Another interesting variation is the incorporation of the Pro-Am structure. Each pro will be paired up with an amateur for the first three rounds. So the groupings for the first three days will feature two pros and two amateurs. Given the format, the pin positions will be in easier locations for the first three days.
18-Hole Record (Stadium Course): 61, Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021)
18-Hole Record (Nicklaus Tournament): 61, Will Zalatoris (Round 2, 2022)
18-Hole Record (La Quinta CC): 59, Adam Hadwin (Round 3, 2017)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
As previously mentioned, this is a unique format with three courses coming into play. Another added difficulty this week is that we only have Strokes Gained data for one of the courses, the PGA West Stadium course. That’s the only course that we’ll see twice so it’ll be the main point of emphasis this week.
Let’s start with the Nicklaus Tournament Course, it’s a Par 72 that’s roughly 7,147 yards in length. As seen by the yardage, it is one of the shortest and easiest courses on Tour.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 8, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
La Quinta is the easiest course on Tour. It’s a Par 72 that’s 7,060 yards which is extremely short. If any player wants to have a chance this week, they’ll need to take advantage of all the birdie opportunities this course offers.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Lastly, let’s look at the PGA West Stadium course which is the host course for the week. It’s a Par 72 that’s roughly 7,187 yards in length. This is the most difficult course that these players will face this week. In addition to difficulty, PGA West is also the longest course of the three.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
The three possible course rotations will be as follows:
- R1: PGA West Stadium -> R2: La Quinta -> R3: Nicklaus Tournament
- R1: La Quinta -> R2: Nicklaus Tournament -> R3: PGA West Stadium
- R1: Nicklaus Tournament -> R2: PGA West Stadium -> R3: La Quinta
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
- Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards
- Proximity: 75-100 Yards
- Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
156 Players will compete in the American Express this week. 5 of the top 10 players in the world are in the field. Last year’s winner, Hudson Swafford will not be defending his title as he has joined the LIV Tour.
- Jon Rahm (+650), returns from a week break after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In two other starts this year, Rahm finished T8 (Hero World Challenge) and T4 (CJ Cup). He won his event back in 2018 when it was called the CareerBuilder Challenge. In his two other appearances at this event, he finished 6th (2019) and T14 (2022).
- Patrick Cantlay (+1100), has had a great start to the year finishing T2 and T16 in his two starts. He has some great course history finishing inside the top 10 in his last three starts at this event.
- Scottie Scheffler (+1100), has finished inside in the top 10 in his last four starts on Tour. His best finish during that span was 2nd at the Hero World Challenge. Scheffler has competed in this event three times before finishing 3rd/ MC/ T25.
- Tony Finau (+1200), won the Cadence Bank Houston Open back in November and has finished inside the top 10 in his last two starts since then. His best finish at The American Express was back in 2021 when he finished 4th.
- Will Zalatoris (+2000), finished T11 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in his lone start of the season. He made his debut at the American Express last year where he finished T6.
Previous Winners in the field: Si Woo Kim (’21), Andrew Landry (’20), Adam Long (’19), Jon Rahm (’18), Jason Dufner (’16), Bill Hass (’15, ’10), Brian Gay (’13), Jhonattan Vegas (’11), Charley Hoffman (’07)
Notable Withdraws: Chad Ramey, Chris Stroud, Kyle Stanley, Brian Gay, Joel Dahmen
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
- Patrick Cantlay: MC/ T9/ 2/ 9
- Adam Hadwin: T48/ T6/ 2/ T3/ T2/ T32/ T25
- Jon Rahm: T34/ 1/ 6/ T14
- Sungjae Im: T12/ T10/ T12/ T11
- Cameron Davis: T28/ T29/ 3
- Andrew Putnam: MC/ T17/ T34/ T10/ T21/ T14
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
- Beau Hossler: T20/ MC/ MC/ MC
Joel Dahmen: MC/ MC/ MC- Michael Block: MC/ MC/ MC
- Juan Sebastian Munoz: MC/ MC/ MC
- Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
- Danny Lee: T66/ MC/ T64/ T41/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
- Price: 175-1
- 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
- Price: 66-1
- 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
- Price: 200-1
- 2019: Adam Long (-26)
- Price: 600-1
- 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
- Price: 10-1
Picks (Outrights):
- Tony Finau (+1500) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.54 to win 8.10 Units
Tony Finau has been playing some of the best golf in his life. He won the Houston Open earlier this season then followed that up with top-10 finishes at the Hero World Challenge and Sentry Tournament of Champions. Finau ranks 2nd in SG: Total, 9th in SG: Tee to Green, 12th in SG: Approach, 12th in SG: Off the Tee, and 7th in SG: Putting. He’s also extremely accurate off the tee which should benefit this week. His best finish at the American Express was in 2021 when he finished 4th. Outside of that, he placed T40 in 2022 and T14 in 2019.
- Will Zalatoris (+2000) – BetMGM/ DraftKings/ Caesars
- Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Will Zalatoris made his debut at The American Express last season where he finished T6. He gained strokes in every category besides putting (-0.72). He’s only played in one event this season as he was recovering from a back injury. Two weeks ago at the Sentry Tournament of Champions he finished T11 struggling a bit with his irons. However, I think that could have been a little rust as when he’s dialed with his irons, he’s one of the best ball strikers on Tour. We’ve seen his putting improve at the end of last year and it seems to have carried over to this year. If he continues that into this week, he should have a great shot to win this event.
- Brian Harman (+4000) – BetMGM/ PointsBet
- Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Brian Harman has been close to winning this event before. He finished T3 last year and back in 2017 when it was named the CareerBuilder Challenge. Harman also finished inside the top 10 here in 2021. He’s been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 32 in each of his five starts on Tour this year. In two of those events, he finished runner-up. Harman’s a bit inconsistent with his putter but has gained strokes on the green in each of his last two starts at this event. His accuracy off the tee should set him up nicely to highlight his ball-striking ability. If he can putt well this week, he should be in contention come Sunday.
- Cameron Davis (+5000) – BetMGM
- Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Cam Davis will make his fourth appearance at the American Express this week. In his three previous starts here he’s finished T28th, T29th, and 3rd. Davis has played in five events to start the season making the cut in four of those events. Last week at the Sony Open he was great off the tee and on approach but struggled with the flat stick. However, if we look at his course history he’s gained strokes putting in each of his past three appearances here.
- Andrew Putnam (+6600) – PointsBet
- Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Andrew Putnam has made the cut in each of his nine starts on Tour this season. He’s also gained strokes putting in each of those events as well. Last week at the Sony Open, he finished T4 gaining over two strokes on the green. His best finish of the season was back in October at the ZOZO Championship where he placed T2. Putnam has played in this event six times before finishing inside the top 34 in each appearance outside of his debut back in 2015. The issue for Putnam has been his play off the tee where he ranks 183rd in strokes gained this season. However, he is accurate off the tee which is more important than distance this week given the short tracks.
- David Lipsky (+13000) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
David Lipsky is coming off a T4 finish at the Sony Open gaining 1.42 strokes on approach. Before that, he withdraw from the RSM Classic for an undisclosed reason, finished T22 at the Houston Open, and T10 at the WWT Championship. Last season, he made his debut at the American Express finishing T14 gaining strokes in every category besides off the tee. He’s struggled on the greens in the past but has been trending in the right direction in that category as of late.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.50 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Cameron Young (+130) – DraftKings
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Cameron Young had a great rookie year with 5 second-place finishes. He’s still searching for his first PGA Tour victory but based on his recent form, he’s not far off. In his five starts this season he’s finished T53/ T23/ 3/ T7/ T13. Young made his debut at the American Express last year placing T40. In that debut he lost strokes in every major category besides one, putting. He’s a great fit for this course and his ball striking has only improved since the last time he was here.
- Si Woo Kim (+175) – BetRivers
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Si Woo Kim is coming off his first PGA Victory since winning the 2021 American Express. We’re going back to him this week given how well he fits this course. He’s great with his approach game ranking 3rd in strokes gained and also ranks 6th in strokes gained tee to green. Off the tee, he’s extremely accurate which has been a path to victory here. He struggles putting but has gained strokes on the green in each of his four appearances at this event.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Adam Hadwin (+100) – Bet365
- Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Adam Hadwin has finished inside the top 40 in six of his seven appearances at the American Express. Hadwin’s putting has been phenomenal at this event gaining strokes on the green every time he’s played here. His approach game is trending in the right direction and has been great at this event in the past. He’s coming off a bit of a layoff with his last start coming back in November at the Houston Open where he finished T7. Hadwin’s game fits this event very well and given his recent form, he should have success here again.
- Callum Tarren (+210) – Bet365
- Risk: 0.50 to win 1.05 Units
Callum Tarren is coming off a T2 finish at The RSM Classic where he gained 1.84 strokes on approach. His putting has also been trending in the right direction gaining strokes in the last five* events. He made his debut at The American Express last year and missed the cut struggling on the greens. Tarren ranks well in most categories besides his short game but gained strokes around the green in his last two events. He fits the course well and given the recent form of his putting and short game, he should fair much better in his second appearance at this event.
Just Missed: Rickie Fowler (+110), Wyndham Clark (+115), Luke List (+150)
Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.50 Units
Total Risk on the American Express: 5.00 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
January 17th CBB Free Play
*CBB(1u): Rhode Island TT UNDER 63.5 @ Richmond–6 PM CT
Rhode Island is a putrid offense, plain and simple. The Rams shoot less than 40% overall from the field and just 29% from distance, both bottom 20 marks in the country. They haven’t been totally exposed in A-10 play yet due to a relatively easy start to conference play, but that will change as they start to play the Richmond’s, Dayton’s, and VCU’s of this conference.
Richmond has a tournament-level defense that’s easily the best unit on the floor in this matchup. As a bonus, the Spiders rank 300th in adjusted tempo, meaning they’ll look to slow this game down and limit possessions for URI. Given this is URI’s second straight road game and a step up in competition, I don’t expect free throws and late-game shenanigans to interfere with this play.
Rhode Island turns the ball over nearly 14 times per game in addition to their shooting struggles. Quite frankly, I have a hard time seeing why this TT starts with a 6.
College Basketball 1/17/22 Tuesday Two-Pack – Sports Betting
Kansas vs Kansas State +2 O/U 147.5
This is going to be a wonderful game with the Jayhawks 15-1 going to Manhattan against their in state rival Wildcats at 15-2. Something has to give! I am going to start by saying that I STILL think Kansas State is overrated here. I love what Jerome Tang has done with this program and all, but now they play their in-state rivals that look very solid on the court and do not have a lot of weaknesses. One thing that I have noticed is that Kansas plays defense this year ranking 12th in efficiency 33rd in opponent field goal percentage. Kansas State ranks 40th and 73rd in each category. Looking at each team’s strength of schedule, Kansas has had it tougher playing teams like Tennessee and with wins against West Virginia, Iowa State, Indiana and Duke. The Cats also have had some great wins vs Texas and Baylor, but they were also fortunate to get those teams when injured. Kansas State’s biggest weakness is finishing at the rim only ranking 133rd in near proximity shots. If they aren’t hitting the three, then they could get into some serious troubles. Kansas ranks 4th in adjusted three point percentage while Kansas State has trouble rebounding the ball only ranking 154th on defense. Kansas is 5-0 their last 5 games in Manhattan. Take the JHawks with the short number.
Kansas -2 – 2 stars
Penn State vs Wisconsin -3.5 O/U 129.5
Wisconsin has been in free fall mode since they lost their best player in Tyler Wahl. The lost at home to Michigan State while only scoring 65 points while choking on the road at Indiana over the weekend scoring a total of 45 points. The good news for the Badgers is that Wahl will be back this game and this is why you are seeing the hook over this three. In saying that, Penn State has played some good ball themselves beating teams like Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. Penn State can be a very efficient team when going, but when they face a tough defense they tend to struggle. The Lions when playing Michigan State and Purdue only put up a maximum of 63 points. Wisconsin’s offense is terrible, but their defense ranks 24th in efficiency with a slow pace ranking 343rd in the nation. Due to all of this, I like the under in this game. I think Wisconsin keeps that slow pace going today while Penn State themselves only rank 247th in average possession length.
Under 129.5 – 1.5 stars
NBA Premiums, 1.17
Winning day in basketball Monday, let’s get some more. Will send CBB if I have time to handicap it later today.
NBA:
Nets/Spurs 1H over 119.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nets/Spurs over 232 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Astoundingly, the 13 of the last 15 Spurs games have gone over, and they’ve gone over by an average margin of 10 ppg. That’s incredible. San Antonio, who’s playing the worst defense in the NBA for the last month, is giving up a ton of points every game, and that’s exactly what the Nets need right now. We’re benefitting from an underwhelming number because Durant is out, but this should still skyrocket over that total. Brooklyn can easily score in the 120s against the Spurs’ porous defense, and San Antonio’s pace and facilitating on the offensive end usually means enough efficiency to keep up and catalyze the game. San Antonio may cover early, but the Nets need to keep winning. I think they cover in a very high scoring affair.
Nuggets 1H over 59.5 pts (-120), to win 1 unit
Nuggets 1H -4 (-110), to win 1 unit
Jokic over 46.5 PAR (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m undecided about the line on this game but I want to find ways to play on the Nuggets. Taking them in the 1H because they’ve been beating teams by more than 10 points in the first half the last 5 games, and any team visiting Denver at altitude seems to be taken aback by their efficiency lately. They also play better defense at home. Denver is simply one of the best if not the best team in the NBA right now, and two good performances by the Blazers against a bad Dallas defense doesn’t exactly impress me. Portland lives and dies by the 3-ball and the Nuggets aren’t that terrible at defending it, either. This is a divisional game where Jokic will probably be heavily involved, so give me a big game from him, while Bones Hyland and other supplementary contributors may not play tonight. Points from Denver should come often, especially against a Portland defense that’s been very average lately.
College Basketball Free Play – Back The Knights of FDU
I apologize, I haven’t had too much time to write articles. Coaching youth basketball and handicapping, especially Saturday’s College Basketball slate takes a lot of time. I’ll try and get better at it here as football finishes up and before baseball gets into full swing. That being said we are cruising so far this season in College Hoops. Just shy of 20 Units of profit after a nice 10-3 weekend. We’re hoping to keep it rolling as we have three plays on the docket for tonight.
My Free play features the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (11-8 Overall, 4-0 NEC) traveling to Easton, Massachusetts to take on the Stonehill Skyhawks (7-12 Overall, 3-2 NEC). They will tip it off at 7:00 ET.
The SkyHawks dropped their last contest on Saturday at home vs Merrimack 59-47. Stonehill only managed to shoot 33.3 percent from the field and turned the ball over 18 times on their way to defeat. They are led in scoring on the season by Senior 6’6″ Forward Andrew Sims at 15.5 ppg. The Knights are winners of their last 5 contests, all by 8 points or more including an 88-80 victory over Central Connecticut St. on Saturday. The Knights feature four different players averaging in double digits on the offensive end and have been getting better on the offensive end in conference play.
Even with FDU having one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the country, they are still in a similar boat as Stonehill who only ranks around 60 spots ahead of them on defense. With both defenses being suspect and both teams leaning toward pushing tempo I think this one comes down to who takes care of the ball and who finishes on the offensive end. The FDU Knights rank at 138th in AdjO according to KenPom which is very good when your playing in the 32nd ranked conference in the land. (That’s dead last excluding independents) They also rank 50th in the country in Turnover% meaning they take care of the ball very well and on defense they are 53rd in the country in turning their opponents over. Stonehill on the other hand has had trouble taking care of the ball as they turn it over on 19.8% of their possessions. Couple that with the Skyhawks ranking 326th in AdjO, and you’ve got a recipe that leans toward the Knights being tough to stop when they have the rock and the Knights picking up some extra possessions along the way. These small conference games also seem to mean less when it comes to home court advantage, and FDU has actually been better on the road than at home while Stonehill has been worse statistically on their home floor. I’ve got this one at 78-71 for the Knights.
Fairleigh Dickinson +1 for 2 Units
Podcast 5 – 23 – NFL Wildcard Recap – NFL Divisional Week Play – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports going 8-4 in the NFL, 5-4 in college hoops, and 3-0 in the UFC! First, Kiev talks about some craziness in last weekend in football. Then, we get into some NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL Divisional Week! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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