I realize this is a great turnaround spot for UCONN after their loss to Marquette but this number is too inflated for me. The Huskies really don’t blow out teams, especially formidable teams in their conference.
Michigan -4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Nice spot for the Wolverines, at home, to settle in and show they’re not on the same level as a mid-tier Big 10 team like Northwestern. I think they could win by double-digits if they’re motivated, although Northwestern’s defense is VERY good. Only 1 unit because of that.
Iowa 1H TT over 37.5 (+100), to win 1.5 units
Maryland is a growing team but they’re not quite there yet on defense and the Hawkeyes have been a high-powered offense very few teams can stop, especially at home. Like them to assert themselves early.
Well the nonsense of the NBA obliterated us again, it’s truly amazing, so I’ll be treading lightly until I really get a sense that this BS will end. Just two plays for me tomorrow:
Clippers -8.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I think this line is high b/c Vegas knows many teams mail it in on Sundays anyway and Houston isn’t too concerned with their season as a whole. This feels like the game where LAC puts it all together– they need to start caring.
OKC/Nets over 230.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Love this– OKC will force the Nets to run with pace and the Thunder will have no answer for how efficient Brooklyn can be, even without Durant.
Kentucky +10.5 (-110), to win 1 unit This line is dropping for a reason. The Wildcats still have an above average offense and I think they can hang. They’re desperate.
Oklahoma -3 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Sooners are surging right now and I don’t trust a WV team that’s overly dependent on their offense on a tough road spot.
Loyola Chicago wins (-105), to win 1 unit
Just think they’re the slightly better team and they won’t be intimidated by this spot on the road– they’ve been in harder/higher pressure situations before, unlike St. Joe’s.
Wisconsin +4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hoosiers have lost 5 of their last 7 and chemistry doesn’t just come from nowhere– Wisconsin’s exceptional defense should be able to keep them from finding it for the majority of this contest.
Lehigh (+135), to win 1.35 units
I watched American/Army, which is one of the worst college basketball games I’ve ever seen, and boy did American look AWFUL for stretches in that game. I think regression continues to come for AU.
Alabama -14.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Alabama has been amazing and at first glance I thought this way too many points, but this is a TOUGH spot for LSU on the road in a marquee time slot and Bama matches up perfectly against LSU’s offense, which is predicated on attacking the rim. The Crimson Tide defend that really well. Pace and points– lights out for the Tigers.
UVA/Florida State under 130.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
FSU’s offense isn’t good enough to overcome the vaunted UVA defense and the Cavaliers should keep this slow. As long as they control the pace, the under will hit.
Belmont -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The difference here will be from long distance– I don’t UNI can hang with Belmont on the road when they’re dropping 3s for 40 minutes.
Syracuse -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Notre Dame just isn’t the same this year, and Syracuse’s ability to run the floor with pace and just produce more scoring opportunities will overwhelm the Irish eventually, again.
Gotta be quick this morning. CBB picks still forthcoming:
Bucks/Heat over 213 (-110), to win 1.5 units
J. Holiday over 21.5 points (-105), to win 1 unit
If the Bucks have a chance, they’ll need Jrue. Giannis will not be playing, and both teams were terrific on defense in their first matchup. I like the over.
Celtics/Hornets over 232 (-110), to win 1 unit
Charlotte won’t have a chance to stop the Celtics’ offense and they’ll be running the floor at a lightning pace like always.
Raptors 1H -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Raptors -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Hawks/Raptors 1H under 119.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is way too high for the first half, especially for a Hawks’ team right off an intense game last night that they nearly lost, and the Raptors are finding their defense– they’re top 6 over the last week. Unders and Raptors.
Mavs/Blazers over 224.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I think Lillard will play tonight but even if he doesn’t these are two sharp 3 point shooting teams going at it and neither looks like they want to play defense right now.
The Dukies are back after a nice two game win streak beating 177th ranked Boston College by 1 point as well as handling number 64 Pittsburgh at home by 8 points. Something is wrong with this Duke team as you can see by their ranking on Kenpom at 26th. The Blue Devils do not shoot well only ranking 219th in effective field goal percentage and 262nd from downtown. They play ok defense ranking 35th in efficiency, but they tend to turn the ball over a lot ranking 202nd in the league in turnovers. The Tigers on the other hand do not turn the ball over nearly as much ranking 34th in that category. They rank 27th in effective FG% and 12th from deep. Clemson has been a very strong team at home in South Carolina being undefeated up to this point. The Tigers are hot ranking 70th in momentum to Duke ranking 344th. The Blue Devils play poorly on the road ranking 362nd in home road splits. They are also without one of their best players due to injury in Jeremy Roach. Take Clemson here to take care of business and shut the door on the Dukies.
Clemson -1.5 – 2 stars
Bonus Play – TCU team total over 75.5 – 2 stars – Both Kansas State and TCU have really picked up the pace this year. TCU averages 77.8 points per game and 78.6 at home. Kansas State plays fast and hasn’t had a hard schedule as of yet. Spread is too large for me but I like the TT over.
The game of the non-deserving? Or maybe the Battle of the playoff teams that were out-scored by their opponents during the regular season. Both of these teams are net negative -.4 yards per play. Minnesota has a weakness against the pass allowing 7.3 yards per attempt. They aren’t great against the run either allowing 4.5 yards per rush. The NY Giants have a weakness against the run allowing 5.2 rushing yards per attempt. Will Dalvin Cook be able to exploit that? I am not so sure. The Vikings only average 4.1 rushing yards per attempt and they are very very banged up on the offensive line with four tackles and guards on injured reserve while their center Garrett Bradbury is questionable for this game. Saquon Barkley has been a beast this year and the Giants strength is running the football averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. The success for the Vikings rests on Kirk Cousins shoulders. I like how the Giants rested their guys last week before coming into the playoffs. What do we do when two bad teams play each other? We take the dog.
Giants +3 – 1.5 stars
Teaser: Jaguars to +8 with the Bengals to -2.5 (or Tampa to +8.5 if Cincy’s number is gone) – 2.5 stars – Both teams at home while the Jaguars have the better coach. Bengals playing with a chip on their shoulder.
Prop: Trevor Lawrence over 14 rushing yards – 1 star – Trevor loves running the football and this is a huge do or die game at home. Expect some legs!
Today Kyle @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev @OBKiev discuss the NFL Wildcard Weekend with some big plays as well as college basketball for the weekend. Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!
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Well, shame on me for betting on the Lakers. If anyone watched that game, the 1st QTR screwed it for us. That was some of the worst offense I’ve ever seen, and Dallas was giving them wide-open shots from the beginning. Terrible stuff.
Onto the next.
NBA:
Hawks -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Picking the Hawks on the road is hard, but I love the way they fought back in their last game against a Bucks’ team that felt desperate for a win. Not an easy gig. I expect that chemistry and momentum to carry into tonight’s game against an inferior team– the Pacers’ defense will feel like butter compared to the Bucks’ crew– and the absence of Haliburton opens a wide-open opportunity for a Hawks cover and win. Buddy Hield can’t do it all on his own.
Knicks -4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is right where I handicap the line but I’m still taking the Knicks, just for one unit. NYK is playing some of its best basketball right now– tops in the NBA on both offense and defense, and I really don’t think Kuzma and company can hold up against the melee of scorers NYK can bring night in and night out. Beal continues to sit and Kristaps Porzingis has a rib injury– night night DC.
Steph Curry over 26.5 points (-105), to win 1.5 units
Spurs TT under 117.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This total for the Spurs is too high– they average a solid 5 points less than where the line sits now, and the Warriors have been playing much better defense lately. I know they’re on the road, but the home/road splits have to thin out eventually. We’re officially at the midway point of the season and it’s time for Golden State to take things more seriously. After Curry’s clumsy first start back, I think he goes OFF tonight against a Spurs’ squad that’s barely capable of stopping even an average offense.
Rockets/Kings over 236.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I could try to be cute and not bet on this, expecting some regression, but where are the signs that the Kings will slow down or that the pace/offense won’t be absolutely constant between these two teams? The Rockets just can’t stop anyone, and it’s an opportunity for Sacramento to work on the fluidity of their offense and get another easy win. Unless the Kings fall asleep at the wheel, this is another over.
CBB (10-9, +0.68 units):
Utah State ML (+110), to win 1.1 units
Utah State’s high-octane offense will be too much for the Wolfpack tonight. Nevada just lost their big man KJ Hymes, an integral part of their interior offense/defense, and that should help Utah State attack the rim. They’re also a way better 3 point shooting team. I’ll take the road dog with value for a straight up win.
We have a great show for you today! Erik Haslam @Haslametrics joins us to talk about a huge weekend of conference play college basketball!First, Kiev talks about the Kevin Warren hire for the Chicago Bears and why it may or may not be the correct choice. Then, Kiev gets into NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND with some great plays and some leans! Next, Eric comes on to talk about Haslametrics as well as some college basketball games and plays for the weekend. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
NFL Plays. Giants +3, Chargers/Jags over 47.5, Trevor Lawrence over 13.5 rushing yards, Teaser, Jags to +8.5 with Buccaneers to +8.5. Potential Dallas buyback at PK or better before the game for half the size.
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @SpittinPicklets, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for January 13th along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction
Around the League
Mid-Season Awards
Teams
Players
NHL Preview/ Picks – January 13th, 2022
Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins
New Jersey Devils @ Anaheim Ducks
Edmonton Oilers @ San Jose Sharks
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Tyson : @SpittinPicklets
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
