An 0-1 Monday brings me to 9-5 early in the CBB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Penn State +2 @ Clemson–6 PM CT
I think Penn State should be favored here even with home court advantage factored in. I’ve been high on the Nittany Lions since the back half of last season; Micah Shrewsberry returns the most experienced team in College Basketball that is dramatically improved offensively from a year ago. While their 42% 3-point rate won’t hold up, it gives you an indicator as to how improved the Nittany Lions are on that end of the floor. While Clemson has finally climbed into the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, I’m not ready to buy it considering they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point. Brad Brownell is notorious for doing less with more; I like this experienced Penn State team to win outright on the road.
*CBB(0.5u): Syracuse/Illinois OVER 144–6:30 PM CT
This is a horrible matchup for Syracuse’s defense. The Orange rank 300th in defensive rebounding percentage, while the Illini are a top 50 offensive rebounding team in the country. When you consider Illinois also shoots over 50% from the floor and runs at a Top 15 pace in the country, it’s pretty hard to imagine them not getting into the 80’s in this matchup. While sentiment is low on Syracuse right now, I think their offense’s best days lay ahead. The Orange have slowed their offense down significantly this year, but they simply can’t afford to do that tonight to keep up with Illinois. Syracuse is far better from deep than their current 33% 3pt would suggest, and this is a game where I expect their guards to step up. This one’s getting played in the 150’s.
*CBB(0.5u): Virginia/Michigan UNDER 129–8:30 PM CT
There are 363 teams in Division 1 College Basketball. Can you guess what Virginia ranks in adjusted pace? 362nd. Their scores against Illinois and Baylor are inflated because those are two teams that rank in the top quarter of the country in pace. Michigan, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom half of the country in pace and is going to center their offense in the halfcourt around Hunter Dickinson. The Wolverines are going to find their rhythm at some point, but is it really going to come against a Top 15 defense in the country this early in the season? Regardless, don’t let Virginia’s prior scores fool you; this is a team that wants to win games 62-57. I think that’s the type of result we get tonight.
Doubling down on our Warriors play. Full list, below:
PS – unfortunately we can’t handicap the Wizards shooting over 70% with 3 minutes left in the half. That was absurd. We also can’t take blame for Terry Rozier’s OUT designation an HOUR before game time against the Celtics. Teams are literally violating NBA rules by doing that. Just unfortunate shit all around lately for my NBA picks. Thankfully, I know all of you had to get Pacers TT under 116.5 because once I released the play, it wasn’t under that mark in any book I saw. That counts as a win for you, so, not the worst Monday overall.
Variance, regression, and better luck should be on our side moving forward. We’re due. No panic in this guy. Onto Tuesday, my friends.
Knicks -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m not sure why this line sits where it does and truly, that’s my only hesitation with this bet. I have the Knicks as 3 points better than an average team, which might be too high at this juncture, but I rate the Pistons as 6 points worse than an average team. New York is healthy and although it’s a weird one-stop road trip, it’s overreaching to assume that it’s a “bad spot.” Seems relatively easy to me. In any case, Detroit’s still without C Cunningham and other contributors and as long as the Knick’s don’t fall asleep, they should assert dominance over Detroit.
Warriors/Mavericks over 227.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Warriors TT over 114.5 (-108 at FanDuel), to win 1.5 units
The Warriors are starting to find a rhythm and I think they might win this showdown at Dallas. Problem is, the Mavericks have now lost four straight and this is a big motivational spot for them to correct their wrongs. In any event, I think Golden State will determine the tempo of this game. The Warriors are consistently putting up huge totals, and they’ve won six out of their last eight contests doing just that. In those 6 wins, they averaged 126.6 ppg. Dallas has slipped down to one of the worst defenses in the NBA over their last 5 games, and I don’t think this is the ideal spot for them to see regression. Win or lose, Golden State sets the tone and this is a high-scoring affair between two Western Conference giants.
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a wonderful thanksgiving weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend as well as his thoughts on the new Wisconsin Badger’s head coach Luke Fickell. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 14! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Warriors/Mavericks over 227.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Warriors are starting to find a rhythm and I think they might win this showdown at Dallas. Problem is, the Mavericks have now lost four straight and this is a big motivational spot for them to correct their wrongs. In any event, I think Golden State will determine the tempo of this game. The Warriors are consistently putting up huge totals, and they’ve won six out of their last eight contests doing just that. In those 6 wins, they averaged 126.6 ppg. Dallas has slipped down to one of the worst defenses in the NBA over their last 5 games, and I don’t think this is the ideal spot for them to see regression. Win or lose, Golden State sets the tone and this is a high-scoring affair between two Western Conference giants.
I’m not sure why this line sits where it does and truly, that’s my only hesitation with this bet. I have the Knicks as 3 points better than an average team, which might be too high at this juncture, but I rate the Pistons as 6 points worse than an average team. New York is healthy and although it’s a weird one-stop road trip, it’s overreaching to assume that it’s a “bad spot.” Seems relatively easy to me. In any case, Detroit’s still without C Cunningham and other contributors and as long as the Knick’s don’t fall asleep, they should assert dominance over Detroit.
We have a six-game slate tonight with a few marquee matchups taking place across the NHL. The Leafs face off against the Red Wings in an original-six matchup. New Jersey and New York square off in a rivalry matchup at MSG. Lastly, to end the night, we have the Panthers taking on the Oilers in what should be a high-scoring affair. I break down all the games and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Game Previews:
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Lightning: 12-7-1, 4th Atlantic (5-4-0 Away)
Buffalo Sabres: 9-12-0, 7th Atlantic (5-7-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
-175
-140
-1.5 (+165)
o6.5 (-125)
Buffalo Sabres
+150
+120
+1.5 (-195)
u6.5 (+105)
These two teams have already faced each other once this year back in November when the Lightning defeated the Sabres 5-3.
The Lightning are coming off a great 5-2 win at home against the St. Louis Blues. They had a few days off leading into that game after their four-game win streak was snapped at TD Garden. In Tampa Bay’s last six games, they have scored at least three goals, averaging 4.3 during that span.
Buffalo recently got over their eight-game losing streak by knocking off the Montreal Canadiens on the road. They followed that win up with an impressive win at home against the St. Louis Blues who were on a seven-game winning streak at that point. In their most recent matchup, they lost to the New Jersey Devils 3-1.
TBL: B. Elliott (4-1-0), 3.37 GAA, .891 SV%
BUF: U-P. Luukkonen (1-1-0), 3.50 GAA, .881 SV%
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Detroit Red Wings
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Toronto Maple Leafs: 13-5-5, 2nd Atlantic (6-3-2 Away)
Detroit Red Wings: 11-5-4, 3rd Atlantic (7-2-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Toronto Maple Leafs
-165
-145
-1.5 (+165)
o6.0 (-125)
Detroit Red Wings
+140
+125
+1.5 (-195)
u6.0 (+105)
The Leafs have won their last three games outscoring their opponents 10-5 during that span. After a slow start, they’ve figured things out and currently sit in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division. Historically the Leafs have owned this matchup winning their last seven games against the Detroit Red Wings.
Detroit’s been playing some great hockey as well, winning their last four games. Their offense has been clicking averaging 5 goals per game during that stretch. Before that, they had lost four straight.
TOR: M. Murray (4-1-1), 2.51 GAA, .921 SV%
DET: V. Husso (9-2-3), 2.39 GAA, .919 SV%
Vegas Golden Knights @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Vegas Golden Knights: 16-6-1, 1st Pacific (9-1-1 Away)
Columbus Blue Jackets: 7-12-1, 8th Metropolitan (6-8-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Vegas Golden Knights
-250
-315
-1.5 (-120)
o6.5 (-115)
Columbus Blue Jackets
+210
+260
+1.5 (+100)
u6.5 (-105)
Despite getting off to a great start this year, the Golden Knights have lost back-to-back games. They were outscored 9-3 in those two games with Logan Thompson and Adin Hill both struggling.
Columbus is also on a two-game losing streak dropping games to Montreal and New York (I). They rank dead last in the NHL in terms of goals allowed per game and will face a Vegas team who ranks 5th in goals for. Joonas Korpisalo has taken over the majority of starts with Merzlikins out. However, Daniil Tarasov has been confirmed for tonight.
VGS: L. Thompson (11-3-0), 2.30 GAA, .925 SV%
CBJ: D. Tarasov (2-3-0), 3.46 GAA, .906 SV%
New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
New Jersey Devils: 18-4-0, 1st Metropolitan (9-1-0 Away)
New York Rangers: 10-8-4, 5th Metropolitan (4-4-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
New Jersey Devils
-105
-115
+1.5 (-285)
o6.0 (-105)
New York Rangers
-115
-105
-1.5 (+240)
u6.0 (-115)
New Jersey has been the most surprising team by far this season. The Devil’s thirteen-game win streak came to end last week in Toronto. Since then, they’ve followed that up with two wins against Buffalo and Washington.
Following a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, the Rangers have had a lackluster start to the year. Offensively, they rank in the bottom half of goals for per game, and with Igor Shesterkin not playing at the same level as last season, they’ve had issues.
NJD: V. Vanecek (9-2-0), 2.13 GAA, .917 SV%
NYR: I. Shesterkin (10-2-3), 2.38 GAA, .917 SV%
Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Dallas Stars: 12-6-4, 1st Central (6-4-2 Away)
St. Louis Blues: 11-10-4, 4th Central (5-4-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Dallas Stars
-105
-125
-1.5 (+205)
o6.0 (-110)
St. Louis Blues
-115
+105
1.5 (-245)
u6.0 (-110)
The Stars lead the Central Division with a 12-6-4 record. However, they’ve lost their last two games. Dallas’ offense has come alive this year under new head coach Peter DeBoer ranking 2nd in goals for per game. Their special teams have also been outstanding ranking 2nd in Power Play % and 3rd in Penalty Kill %.
St. Louis’ seven-game win streak was snapped in Buffalo on Wednesday of last week. following that loss, they’ve gone 1-1 losing to Tampa but taking down the Panthers in OT. Their schedule has been very tough as of late and have upcoming games against Carolina, Pittsburgh, New York, and Colorado.
The Oilers won 4-2 on the road in their previous matchup this year.
Florida’s in a bit of a skid losing four of their last five games. Their lone win during that stretch was against Boston on Wednesday of last week. Despite the recent downturn in play, they still have a 10-8-3 record.
After making it to the Western Conference Finals last season, the Oilers’ play has been inconsistent to start the season. One of the main reasons is Jack Campbell who has the fifth worst GSAX (-8.9). While the Oilers’ blue line isn’t great to begin with, he isn’t doing anything to help the issue.
FLA: S. Bobrovsky (4-5-1), 3.62 GAA, .888 SV%
EDM: S. Skinner (4-5-0), 2.78 GAA, .921 SV%
Pick(s):
New Jersey Devils (-105) – Caesars
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
Historically the New York Rangers have owned the New Jersey Devils winning nine of their last ten matchups. However, as you know, I don’t base any picks off trends or recent matchups. The Devils’ start to the year is something few, if none, could have predicted. Before the season started they were calling for Lindy Ruff’s head now they’re chanting “Sorry Lindy.” In the off-season, one of the major issues for the Devils was their goaltending. They acquired Vitek Vanecek from the Capitals who has been playing phenomenally. Their offense and defense are also clicking on all cylinders and are ranked inside the top three in the league.
New York, on the other hand, has been in a downward spiral to start the year. They recently traded away Ryan Reaves to Minnesota and while he may not contribute much besides his physical presence, they don’t have any grit to this team. Leon Draisaitl scored against them on Saturday and practically threw Trouba’s stick out of his hands without any repercussions. New York’s offense has not been great ranking 17th in GF/G and while they have been able to create chances, they haven’t been able to capitalize on them.
Given that it’s a rivalry game, both teams should get up for this game. However, the Devils are the overall better team and have been playing much better hockey as of late. While it’ll be a tough game, I believe the Devils can pull this one out at the mecca.
Vegas Golden Knights/ Columbus Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-112) – Barstool
Risk 0.28 to win 0.25 Units
In their last game, the Golden Knights were held to just one goal for the second time this season. The last time that happened this year, they scored 5 in the next game against the Seattle Kraken on the road. While the Kraken aren’t great defensively, the Columbus Blue Jackets are the worst team in the NHL in terms of goals against averaging 4.2. Their top goaltender Elvis Merzlikins is hurt so Daniil Tarasov is expected to start. On the year, Tarasov has a 3.46 GAA and -1.3 GSAx. The Golden Knights have one of the best offenses in the NHL and should be primed to take advantage of a weak Columbus team.
Columbus averages 2.9 GF/G but at home, that number jumps to 3.07. The Golden Knights have also struggled defensively on the road, allowing 3.18 GA/G compared to 2.17 GA/G at home. While Logan Thompson has played well this season stepping into that number one goalie role, he’s had some issues lately. In his last five starts, he’s averaging 3.2 goals against.
Leans(s):
Edmonton Oilers team total over 3.5 (+108) – Caesars
Given the total for this matchup opened at 7, it should be a high-scoring affair. The Panthers have been awful defensively allowing five or more goals against in four of their last five games. Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to get the start tonight who’s allowed 4/5/2/5 goals against in his previous four starts. The Oilers have been much better offensively at home averaging 3.55 goals for. In Edmonton’s previous matchup against Florida, they put up 4 goals on the road.
Player Props to Target:
Jason Robertson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – Caesars
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.8 SOG and 10.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five games. The Blues rank 23rd in SOG Allowed per game and give up the 13th most SOG per game to Left Wingers.
Brandon Montour over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130) – FanDuel
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.8 SOG and 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five games. The Oilers rank 28th in SOG Allowed per game and give up the 3rd most SOG per game to Defensemen.
Shae Theodore over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-139) – Caesars
He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 SOG and 4.6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in his last two games. The Blue Jackets rank 32nd in SOG Allowed per game and give up the most SOG per game to Defensemen.
Jeff Skinner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-157) – BetRivers
He’s gone over this number in each last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five games. The Lightning rank 11th in SOG Allowed per game and give up the 6th most SOG per game to Left Wingers.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I’m off to a crisp 9-4 start in CBB early in the season. With not a lot of great games to work with, I’m sticking with one play for tonight looking to start the week off strong!
*CBB(0.5u): Pittsburgh 1H TT UNDER 28 @ Northwestern–8 PM CT
Pittsburgh hits the road for the first time this season after a shaky start to the season. On the surface, it would appear this team has hit a stride on their current 3 game winning streak; I would counter with the fact that Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson, and William & Mary are all bottom 50ish teams in College Basketball. Northwestern has their limitations offensively, but this is a top 10 defense in the country; they held Auburn to just 43 last Wednesday. Neither one of these teams is eager to run their offense with pace, so with Northwestern’s defense clearly being the best unit on the floor, I expect them to suffocate a very mediocre Pitt offense.
Why isolate this in the 1H? Pitt has shown that they will throw caution to the wind when they’re down in the 2nd Half; we saw this a few weeks ago in a near comeback win against VCU.
Timberwolves -1 (-110), to win 1.5 units Both of these teams are coming off a game Sunday but one played considerably worse. The Timberwolves were blown off the floor by the Warriors but hey, at least they spared their starters a few minutes. Kuzma could be out of this contest and the Timberwolves match up well against a Wizards’ team that’s sturdy but not quick. I think Minnesota is too explosive for them – they get a nice win in response to Sunday’s letdown.
Hornets +11 (-110), to win 1 unit
Big time rest advantage for the Hornets. They haven’t played since Friday, while the Celtics battled hard and beat the Wizards on Sunday. Many of the Celtics’ starters didn’t play 30+ minutes in an effort to save some energy, but the Hornet should be able to tire out the Celtics, especially with Scary Terry back at the helm. The Hornets have looked better the last week– I’ll take a big dog here.
Pelicans -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Thunder are playing their 3rd game in five days Monday while the Pelicans are coming off 3 solid days of rest. At home, this is a smash spot for New Orleans. Even if McCollum or Ingram have to sit, this is a deep, playoff ready team that should easily handle the Thunder on their home floor.
This is the spot that Jacksonville has to get it right. I have to say that the Jaguars are looking pretty healthy here coming of the bye, and if this team can just hold on to their leads and start playing like winners, they have a good shot to cover this thing. The numbers on these teams are really closer than one might think. Baltimore is a net positive .1 yards per play while Jacksonville is dead even. The Ravens rank 9th in offensive EPA to Jacksonville ranking 11th. The Jaguars rank 18th in defensive EPA while the Ravens rank 17th. If the Jaguars can just keep the turnover margin equal or better in this game, I think that they cover this spread coming off the bye.
Jaguars +4 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Panthers to +8.5 with the Steelers to +8.5 – 2 stars
