The Raptors outplayed the Hornets and won by margin two nights ago but Charlotte still forced their style of play. It was faster paced, higher scoring, and at the end of the day Toronto still allowed the Hornets to drop 120 points. I think their emphasis is on defense tonight and the inefficiencies of the Charlotte Hornets reveal their head again.
Lakers 1Q +0.5 (-104), to win 1 unit
Lakers 1H +1.5 (-112), to win 1 unit
Lakers TT over 116.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Lakers aren’t a great team but lately their offense has played considerably better and they’ve been running fast up and down the court. With Lebron in the lineup tonight, who’s points prop I considered taking since he’ll have to shoulder such a huge workload, the Lakers should be able to create some unanticipated offense.
CBB (9-7, +1.43 units):
Michigan +5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Iowa’s inability to prevent scoring at the rim and their weaknesses on defense in general should allow the Wolverines a chance to hang in this game. Besides, except for a blip at the beginning of the season against Arizona State. The Wolverines haven’t lost by margin this season. I don’t see Iowa accomplishing that tonight, either.
Parlay: USC wins and Colorado/USC under 141.5 (+200), to win 2 units
USC is coming off two straight losses and will really want to get-right in this spot, but Colorado’s defense is superb. The Buffalo like to run at a faster pace but USC, who’s strength also lies in their defense, should be able to slow them down and make this a big-bodied defensive challenge in the paint. I think USC to muster a win in a closely fought, low-scoring SEC battle
Weber State/Montana over 134.5 (-110, to win 1.5 units
Nine out of fifteen Montana games have gone over the total and they’ve eclipsed 134 points 11 different times with their opponents this season. Montana is a good over-team because their defense is SO bad but they can find a lot of success from beyond the arc. I expect another over.
These lower level teams are more even than what people think and this is a big spot for UNC Wilmington at home. Charleston has a lightning pace but UNC Wilmington can bring the heat on defense at home. Both teams are on tremendously long winning streaks and they’re undefeated at home – I think this one ends closely.
Alabama wins (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Crimson Tide are on a tear right now, blitzing opposing defenses with their fast-paced offense and diverse ways they can score. They’re a much better 3-point shooting team and they defend it well, too, which could be the achilles heel for the Razorbacks tonight. Alabama’s strength of schedule has also way been more formidable. Sure, Arkansas has the home floor and this is a rivalry, but Bama is the better team. If they show up with energy, they win.
UCONN/Marquette under 147 (-110), to win 1 unit
This game is more evenly matched, especially since it’s on Marquette’s home floor, and while UCONN clearly has the better defense, I expect them to be feisty and more energized on that side of the floor. Marquette puts up points against the lowly defenses of the Big East but will not experience the same success tonight.
The unpredictable nature of sports continues– thank God we weren’t on the Warriors last night. The Heat were still the right side, they were the grown ups on Tuesday night and they proved it, but unfortunately they only won by 1 point. The Thunder are a young, athletic team and that was their first TV game in a very, very long time. Kudos to their energy. Onto the next:
NBA first, CBB coming next:
Timberwolves/Pistons over 229.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Timberwolves TT over 119 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pistons are a dead-nut over team: 60% ATS this season and an astounding 72% ATS to the over on their home floor (13-5-1). They’re tired off a bad loss to the 76ers but they were still able to put up points. We’ll see if Bogdonavic returns tonight and if he does, that’s a great thing for Detroit’s scoring potential. Either way, this is a better spot for Minnesota to find some offense and push up this score. Detroit just won’t have the energy for any defense.
Kings -9 (-110), to win 1.5 units
SG Parlay: Sabonis O19.5 pts + Sengun O6.5 Rebounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Sengun is averaging 8 rebounds per game and he’s a really important piece for the Rockets, who probably won’t do that well in this game but if they have a chance, he’ll need to be aggressive at the rim against Sabonis. His defense is light and often soft, and we’ve seen Sabonis absolutely torch similar defensive profiles in the paint. On the game itself, the Kings are starting to look like their old self– they’re the #1 offense over the last 7 games and they’re very healthy. The Rockets have covered 1 game since Dec 26th and they’ve won only 1 game since mid December. They’re a worse ATS team on the road, and they just don’t have the offensive talent to hang with a team like Sacramento. Better spot for the Kings to smash.
Spurs +13.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Grizzlies continue to own the Spurs but they don’t beat them by margin. This is the Grizzlies 5th game in 7 days and they’ll be happy to get some rest– they have a solid 3 day break ahead of them. There’s not much to love about San Antonio’s offense but their profile is that they’re an assist-dependent team who can score in the paint and in the mid-range, and with the right situation their energy can keep them competitive. This is that spot.
The Titans out-gained the Jaguars 312 to 222 yet lost 20-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio did them in.
The Patriots out-gained the Bills 341 to 327 yet lost 35-23. Equal turnover at 3 but horrible special teams allowing two kickoff returns was the culprit.
The Saints out-gained Carolina 304 to 203 yet lost 10-7. They won the turnover battle 3-2 but horrible red zone and bad special teams missing a field goal got them.
Seattle out-gained the Rams 402 to 269 yet only won 19-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them some but they still barely won.
Jon Rahm captures the Sentry Tournament of Champions coming from seven strokes back on Sunday to overtake Collin Morikawa. He has now won on the PGA Tour in each of his last seven seasons. We missed on both of our outright selections and went one for two on our top-10 picks for a small loss.
We’re hopping islands this week and heading to Honolulu for the Sony Open. Nineteen players who participated in the Sentry Tournament of Champions will play in this week’s event as they’re already in Hawaii. Tom Hoge will be making a slight detour before heading back to Hawaii. He’s heading to Los Angeles to watch his alma mater, TCU, take place in the college football national championship.
The Sony Open will be the first full-field event of the 2023 season. It’s also the last tournament held in Hawaii as we begin the California swing next week. The American Express, Farmer’s Insurance Open, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will all take place out there in the coming weeks.
The Sony Open was inaugurated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open. It’s been held at Waialae Country Club ever since. It’s also the third oldest host course on the PGA Tour following only Colonial and Pebble Beach.
Waialae Country Club was founded 96 years ago in 1927. The course was originally built by the Territorial Hotel Company as part of a promotional program to encourage travel to Hawaii. Seth Raynor, the architect, incorporated several aspects from other major courses around the world including St. Andrews, North Berwick Golf Club, and the Biarritz Course.
The typical front and back nines are switched this week for the PGA Tour as the “9th” features a picturesque dog-leg creating a more exciting finish. This was done so to utilize the sun’s power setting in the west.
72-Hole Record: 253, Justin Thomas (2017)
18-Hole Record: 59, Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2017)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Waialae is completely different from what we saw last week at Kapalua. The course is about ~400 yards less and puts more emphasis on accuracy. The fairways are treelined and tight, while the greens are small with tough pin locations. The players will have shorter wedges into greens this week which is an advantage and something they’ll need to excel at as approach play has been a major key to victory here.
Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour and plays roughly 7,044 yards. It’s a Par 70 which means Par 4 Scoring will be placed at a premium this week as Waialae only features two Par 5’s. There are four Par 3’s on the course but all of them play roughly 200 yards or less. Last year, this was one of the easiest events in terms of Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring.
The main defense for the course is the wind but we are expected to have similar conditions as last week which means it won’t be a major factor. In addition to the wind, the tight fairways can punish inaccurate players off the tee putting them at a disadvantage on their approach shots.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 8, 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 125-150 Yards
Proximity: 150-175 Yards
Proximity: 175-200 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
144 Players will compete in the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club this week. 19 of the 39 players who competed in the Sentry Tournament of Champions will make the trip to Honolulu.
Tom Kim (+1100), will be making his Sony Open debut at Waialae Country Club this week. He has finished inside the top 25 in each of his last five starts on tour.
Sungjae Im (+1400), finished T13 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. He’ll be making his fifth appearance at Waialae Country Club making the cut in every edition besides last year. His best finish at this event was in his debut where he finished T16 back in 2019.
Jordan Spieth (+1400), has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last starts on the PGA Tour. He’s missed the cut in two of his four starts at Waialae Country Club including last year. In those two other appearances, he finished T18 and 3rd.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1800), is the defending champion of the Sony Open. He finished T21 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week after withdrawing at the Houston Open due to injury.
Brian Harman (+1800), has been in great form since finishing T21 at the Tour Championship. In his four starts on Tour following that, he’s finished T15/ T23/ 2/ T2/ T16. He posted four consecutive top-20 finishes at Waialae Country Club from 2015-2018 but has failed to crack the top-20 in his four appearances following that run.
Previous Winners in the field: Hideki Matsuyama (’22), Matt Kuchar (’19), Patton Kizzire (’18), Jimmy Walker (’15, ’14), Russell Henley (’13), Ryan Palmer (’10), and Zach Johnson (’09).
Notable Withdraws: Patrick Rodgers, James Hahn
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Keegan Bradley has been playing some great golf to start the 2022-23 season winning the ZOZO Championship three starts ago. Following that victory, he placed T21 at the CJ up and 34th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. In terms of course history, he finished T12 in 2020 and 2022. His putting can be worrisome at times but he ranks well in every other key category. However, we’ve seen him putt well on Bermuda earlier this year gaining strokes on the green at both the CJ Cup and Sanderson Farms Championship.
Kyoung-Hoon (KH) Lee (+4000) – PointsBet
Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Keith Mitchell (+4500) – PointsBet
Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Keith Mitchell seems to love playing at Waialae finishing T25 or better in four of his five appearances here. He didn’t play last week so his last start was back in November at the RSM Classic where he finished T39. Before that, he placed T9 at the Houston Open, which is his best finish this season. His approach play can be inconsistent at times but as we saw earlier this year at the Houston Open he was fantastic with his approach shots gaining 1.42 strokes over the field. Mitchell’s putting has also been trending in the right direction and he gained strokes at Waialae in 2021 and 2022.
Si Woo Kim (+5000) – BetRivers
Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Gary Woodland (+6000) – Caesars
Risk: 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Mackenzie Hughes (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Hughes won earlier this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Since then he has made the cut in three of his last four events. In the events he made the cut, he’s finished T23, T16, and T21. Last year at Waialae he gained 1.49 strokes putting, placing T19. He’s a great ball striker with a short game to match making him a great fit this week.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Corey Conners (+120) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Corey Conners has been in great form lately finishing inside the top 25 in each of his last five events. He also has a great course history Waialae finishing T39/ T3/ T12/ T11 in his four appearances. Conners’ accuracy off the tee should set him up nicely as he is a great ball striker ranking 45th in strokes gained on approach. While his putting can be inconsistent, he has gained strokes on the green in two of his last three starts and each time at Waialae. He’s a great course fit as seen by his previous finishes and when you add in his recent form, he’s set up for success this week.
Tom Hoge (+130) – FanDuel
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Tom Hoge played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week finishing T3 but made a slight detour before heading to Honolulu. He went to Los Angeles to see TCU, his alma mater, play in the college football national championship. Safe to say, he’s probably not in a great mood after TCU lost 65-7. Hoge had missed the cut twice in a row before his finish at Kapalua. However, before that, he had a great run finishing T13 or better in five consecutive events. Hoge ranks well in most categories besides strokes gained around the green. However, he’s shown his approach play and putting can propel him past that weakness in his game. This course sets up nicely for Hoge who finished 3rd here back in 2018.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Adam Svensson (+110) – BetRivers
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Adam Svensson won the RSM Classic before the break and finished 37th last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In his last three events, he’s finished inside the top 40. He’s played at Waialae twice before, finishing T43 in his debut (2019) and T7 last year. Svensson seems to fit the course nicely given his accuracy off the tee, ball-striking, and short game. The issue for him seems to come on the greens. He currently ranks 95th in strokes gained putting and was horrific last week at Kapalua. However, he has gained strokes on the green in both of his previous appearances at this course. If he continues that trend, he has a great shot to compete this week.
Nick Hardy (+150) – FanDuel
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Nick Hardy has played in six tournaments during the 2022-23 season making the cut in five of them. His last event, the RSM Classic, was the lone event he didn’t end up making it to the weekend. He struggled on the greens while gaining strokes in every other category. This has been an issue for him as he’s lost strokes putting in each of his last six events. However, when we look at his two previous performances at Waialae, he’s gained strokes putting both times. Hardy has a great approach game, ranking 8th in strokes gained, and also ranks 20th in strokes gained tee to green. If he can putt well, like he’s done his last two times here, he should be able to finish inside the top 40.
Just Missed: Brendan Steele (Concerned about his back injury), Hayden Buckley (His approach play has been trending in the wrong direction)
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sony Open: 5.24 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
St John’s is off to a rough 1-5 start in Conference play, but they have had to endure a front-loaded schedule early in Big East play. Butler enjoyed the luxury of beating up on DePaul and Georgetown but have otherwise been BLITZED in Big East play; UCONN beat them by 22, Creighton beat them by 22, Providence beat them by 20, and Seton Hall just beat them by 25. St John’s battled Providence hard this past Saturday and have also put up respectable showings vs Xavier and Marquette.
The main edge I see with the Johnnies tonight is on the glass. St John’s is a Top 30 offensive rebounding team in America and above average on the defensive glass, while Butler ranks outside of the Top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding %(they are a bottom 30 offensive rebounding team in America). St John’s will use their fast-paced style to jump out to a hot start, but because Butler holds a stark edge at the Foul line, I’ll isolate this as a 1H play.
Nice 4-1 night in premium picks– more of that incoming. Just sticking with Wisconsin today in CBB.
NBA:
Heat -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Heat -4 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Thunder are actually pretty good– they facilitate the ball well, they rebound well, they have a true star in SGA, and they have sneaky good contributors at the rim. They’re also not a very good shooting team. They’re just not, and they’re the perfect team for the Heat to expose at home, especially after a loss at home against Brooklyn. With that still on their minds, I expect Miami to take it out on OKC. Jimmy, Tyler, and Bam should all play, even though that sneaky injury report is always annoyingly unpredictable. Doubling down on the Heat play– I love Jimmy Butler’s call to action after the Nets’ debacle. Miami will take care of business.
Pistons 1Q under 26.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Pistons TT under 107.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Pistons will play tomorrow night back at home, which creates a really tough travel spot. They faced this same Sixers team on Sunday, now they’re at Philly, and then they have to go back home to face the Timberwolves. With injuries riddling their lineup and not much to play for, it’s likely they’ll have to face Joel Embiid tonight, too, who just got upgraded to questionable. Detroit is in a tough spot and they’re among the lower scoring 1st quarter teams in the NBA. I like a slow start and a slower overall scoring day from a bad Detroit offense.
Lean, Raptors -7.5
The Raptors are playing much better defensively but let’s watch and see how they compete against the Hornets tonight. Charlotte isn’t a good team but they obviously found a rhythm against the Bucks the other night and Toronto has struggled with teams that fit the same profile as CHA (fast paced, small, transition attackers like IND/GS/MEM).
Donovan Mitchell PAR over 36.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Mitchell’s points and PAR have cooled down since his insane 71 point performance against the Bulls. Mitchell was given one game off in between that huge game and his PAR has been lower recently as the Cavs were working Darius Garland back into the lineup. Mitchell will care not about Garland as he returns to his ex-team in Utah and I think he’ll take advantage of a banged up Jazz team on the road. Tougher spot for Cleveland, too, so ancillary players may not have the same motivation, meaning more will be put on his shoulders for the win.
CBB:
Wisconsin -1 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a much better spot for the Badgers, off a bad loss to a high-octane Illinois offense, coming back home to face a familiar and similar foe. Both of these squads are slow paced and they win with defense. This game should proceed nice and slow, which will be an advantage for Wisconsin. Michigan State just finished a gritty defensive game against Michigan. Two of those in a row- that’s rough. Wisconsin takes it.
Return of the MAC is on tonight with two decent basketball teams. Kent State will be hosting this game sitting pretty at 12-3. Now when they stepped up in competition, they failed but you have to give them credit for not losing to Houston, Gonzaga and Charleston by more than 7 points. Kent State has a decent defense ranking 37th in efficiency but they are quite bad a rebounding the basketball. The Golden Flashes play at a faster pace ranking 86th in adjusted Tempo. Kent State is very fast in transition ranking in the top 25 in breakway points. Toledo on the other hand has a wonderful offense ranking 17th in offensive efficiency but they have a terrible defense ranking 290th respectively. Toledo plays at a very fast pace ranking 15th in ajusted Tempo. Toledo can rebound the ball somewhat on offense ranking 126th, but they can’t rebound on defense only ranking 325th which means that Kent State should be able to clean up their boards and score. Due to all of this discrepancy, I am not really interested in a side, but I would love to take this short total over. I see fast pace and many points on transition due to the big issues that both of these teams present from an offensive rebounding perspective, and based on the fact that both of these teams play very fast. Over the last five games, Toledo hasn’t scored less than 83 points. Kent State hasn’t scored less than 76 points at home all year. Take the over.
Over 152.5 – 2 stars
Quick Hitter: Nebraska +3.5 – 2 stars –
Illinois ranks 10th worst in away from home rating in college basketball while Nebraska ranks 16th at home rating found on haslametrics.com. Illinois lost their top Freshman in Sky Clarke last week due to transfer. I also do not like how Illinois only ranks 306th from the charity line.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev talks about some craziness in last weekend in football. Then, we get into some NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL Wildcard Week! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Nice night across all sports– I’m not gonna say it… but I think you know what I want to say. Anyway, 4-0 so far. Onto some earlies for tomorrow:
NBA:
Heat -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Thunder are actually pretty good– they facilitate the ball well, they rebound well, they have a true star in SGA, and they have sneaky good contributors at the rim. They’re also not a very good shooting team. They’re just not, and they’re the perfect team for the Heat to expose at home, especially after a loss at home against Brooklyn. With that still on their minds, I expect Miami to take it out on OKC. Jimmy, Tyler, and Bam should all play, even though that sneaky injury report is always annoyingly unpredictable.
CBB:
Wisconsin -1 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a much better spot for the Badgers, off a bad loss to a high-octane Illinois offense, coming back home to face a familiar and similar foe. Both of these squads are slow paced and they win with defense. This game should proceed nice and slow, which will be an advantage for Wisconsin. Michigan State just finished a gritty defensive game against Michigan. Two of those in a row- that’s rough. Wisconsin takes it.
