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NHL Player Props to Target – January 9th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
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We only have four games taking place across the NHL tonight. I break down a few player props that you should target on the limited slate.

 

Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres

  • Alex Tuch over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-147) – Caesars

Alex Tuch has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 SOG and 5.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Flyers rank 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.9. On the road, that number increases to 33.1. They also give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.

 

  • Jeff Skinner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-168) – Caesars

Jeff Skinner has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 SOG and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Flyers rank 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.9. On the road, that number increases to 33.1. They also give up the most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers Wingers. Skinner seems to love playing against the Flyers as he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games against them.

 

Nashville Predators @ Ottawa Senators

  • Thomas Chabot over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115) – FanDuel

Thomas Chabot has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.6 SOG and 5.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Predators rank 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.1. On the road, that number increases to 34.8. They also give up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Defensemen. In their one game against the Predators’ this year, Thomas Chabot recorded 3 shots on goal on 7 attempts.

 

Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings

  • Kevin Fiala over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-152) – BetRivers

Kevin Fiala has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 SOG and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Oilers rank 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.5. On the road, that number increases to 33.6. They also give up the 23rd most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers. In Fiala’s last four games against the Oilers’, he’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of those matchups.

 

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-170) – DraftKings

Kevin Fiala has gone under this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 1.4 SOG and 3.6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded under 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Kings rank 6th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 28.7. At home, that number drops to 27.8. They also give up the 27th most shots on goal per game to Centers.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

One More NBA Pick

By
Chris R. Farley
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Bulls +8.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

I can’t get over the Bulls being +8.5, just doesn’t make sense to me with how Chicago’s played lately and now Boston doesn’t have Marcus Smart, so we’re adding Chicago. They’re the way better ATS team lately, too.

College Football National Championship Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We finish bowl seaon 24-12-1 up 31U!

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TCU vs Georgia -13 O/U 63.5

This will be the finish to the season that really none of us has been waiting for.  In saying that, Georgia didn’t show much of a pass rush Vs Ohio State and that worries me some.  Max Duggan is fantastic on his feat and that is the way that TCU will have to move the ball.  Call me crazy, but I might even give Duggen the quarterback edge in this game.  Strength of schedule favors TCU 21 to Georgia’s 34 on Sagarin but you can’t discount an SEC schedule.  Georgia has a .82 YPP advantage mainly due to TCU’s mediocre defense.  The big weakness for TCU is against the run.  They allow 4.2 yards per attempt with a success rate on defense only ranking 72nd.   The Frogs defensive line in the trenches are a bit undersized which could hinder them here against a massive Georgia offensive front.  The Bulldogs rank 7th in rushing success rate and 7th at yards per rush so they should be able to control the clock if they can get a good start in the game.  In saying all of that, I think that TCU can hang here.  The scary thing for Georgia is that they rank only 108th in explosiveness on offense while TCU ranks 5th on offense to Georgia ranking 32nd on defense allowing explosive plays.  This tells me that TCU has back door ability here if the going gets rough.  It is scary because if TCU somehow jumps Georgia, it could put the Bulldogs in a tough situation having to rely on a passing game to mediocre wide receivers minus Brock Bowers.  My power ratings have it at Georgia -11, but I think that TCU hangs and only loses by 9, but take a Georgia rushing props to be safe.   I believe that all three outcomes can happen.   Remember, it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, its about the size of fight in the frog.  Best of luck everyone!

TCU +13.5 – 2 stars 

Props:  Edwards over 49.5 rushing yards – 1 star
Kenny McIntosh over 65.5 rushing yards – 1 star

NBA Premiums, 1.9

By
Chris R. Farley
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Just NBA and the CFB title game to bet today; loaded day with reaction responsibilities in the NFL after yesterday and all my gigs.

More CBB coming this week– don’t want to give away plays without the needed prep.
Bucks TT over 110.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m not sure if the Bucks can win this game, but their offense needs to improve. Both teams have been average on defense in their last 10 games, but Milwaukee is shockingly among the worst offensive teams in that span. New York has comfortably figured out their offense again with Jalen Brunson back, and they’ll push the pace and look to continue putting up points tonight against a Bucks’ defense that clearly hasn’t found their footing. That will push the Bucks to turn towards offense again and historically, they’ve performed well against NYK- they’ve eclipsed 110 points in 4 out of their last 6 games against New York.
Spurs/Grizzlies under 238 (-110), to win 1 unit
I just think this is another case where we’ll see a blowout and therefore scoring will slow down in the second half. Memphis’ defense should be too much for San Antonio at home. If you like the over, I’d take it in the first half.
 
Lakers/Nuggets over 239.5 (-110), to win 2 units

This line will only rise, and Lakers’ totals are still sky high. Denver is lights out at home and LAL isn’t playing a lick of defense on the road.

CFB National Championship Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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I’m 13-8, +4.75u in the CFB Postseason and am looking to finish strong with another winner tonight.

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*CFB(1u): Georgia -13 vs TCU–6:30 PM CT

None of what I’m about to say is to take away from all TCU has done to make it to this point. With that said, last week’s win over Michigan featured yet another string of improbable results that led to the win. Michigan’s JJ McCarthy threw 2 pick sixes, and the Wolverines turned the ball over inside TCU’s 5 yard-line on 2 separate occasions(one fumble on the one, one turnover on downs). Going up against this Georgia offense and a group of guys who have won on this stage, I don’t see the Horned Frogs being able to repeat that formula.

Contrary to popular belief, Georgia is a pass-first offense that is quite explosive; the Bulldogs rank 2nd in the nation in yards/play, and Stetson Bennett attempted 34 passes(for nearly 400 yards) vs Ohio State. I think this matches up quite well going against a TCU secondary that has shown cracks all season. Despite the mistakes, JJ McCarthy still threw for over 10 Y/A on this TCU secondary, and prior to that, the Horned Frogs had allowed over 11 Y/A to KSU’s Will Howard as well as 9 Y/A to Baylor’s Blake Shapen. They’ve had quite a bit of success in confusing younger QB’s(think Quinn Ewers), but that’s obviously not the role they find themselves in tonight. I’m not all that high on Georgia’s run game and actually think TCU could put up a pretty good fight against the run, but I don’t see any edge for TCU going up against a borderline elite Georgia OL. While the run defense has been mostly good, explosive runs continue to be an issue for this unit.

I’ve always described TCU’s offense as more “explosive” than “consistent”. I think that’s exemplified by how Max Duggan has played this postseason; against both Kansas State and Michigan, Duggan completed 50% or less of his passes but was able to generate some big plays down the field. If you look at Georgia’s last 2 games, perhaps you could believe that Duggan should have no problem creating downfield explosion against this Georgia secondary. Personally, I haven’t forgotten how silly this Georgia secondary made two of the best offenses in CFB(Oregon, Tennessee) look throughout various portions of the season. As a Buckeye bettor last week, I simply believed Ohio State had the horses in their passing game to match up with a very good defense. Regardless of your concern level with this UGA secondary, it’s undeniable that this is a Top 2 run defense in CFB. TCU’s #1 RB Kendre Miller will be playing at far less than 100%, and while you have to account for an explosive run or two, I don’t see TCU finding much consistency in establishing the run. While I wouldn’t call Georgia’s pass rush the staple of their defense, I do think the Bulldogs hold a pretty clear edge in the trenches. They sacked CJ Stroud 4 times last week despite facing a very good OL, and TCU has allowed 4 or more sacks on 4 separate occasions this year.

Other plays that just missed my card were Georgia 1H -7.5 and Georgia TT OVER 38/38.5. I know TCU has fought their way back into games all season, but they also haven’t faced the perfect storm of experienced QB, explosive passing game, staunch run defense, elite OL/DL like they will tonight. I’ve backed Georgia in their biggest moments all season(expect last week) and think they pull away and win this comfortably.

CFB Title Game Pick

By
Chris R. Farley
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TCU/Georgia alt total over 64.5 (+105), to win 2.5 units

I see the narrative of this game going in one direction. The Bulldogs have been able to score readily on average to bad defenses. In games against teams with defenses that fit such a description, Georgia has cranked out totals in the 40s over and over again, mostly in big games too, including a 50 burger on LSU. I think the lowest possible score is something like 42-24, which would still put us over our needed total. TCU will get their points eventually, probably after Georgia goes up and they chase. Or even if TCU creates margin first, Georgia will absolutely create points to keep up. Either way, this game is all about offense, although the big bad Bulldogs will probably make the right stops when it matters. Lean Georgia -12.5, but love our total.

Early NBA Premium, 1.9

By
Chris R. Farley
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Lakers/Nuggets over 239.5 (-110), to win 2 units

This line will only rise, and Lakers’ totals are still sky high. Denver is lights out at home and LAL isn’t playing a lick of defense on the road.

No Basketball Picks Today

By
Chris R. Farley
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CBB goes 4-2 for +2 units Saturday, that was fun, and we’ll have more and more CBB plays as we continue to experience insanity in the NBA.

I mean why would we expect the Warriors to win, at home, off 3 days rest, with a renewed roster, when they’ve been immaculate at the Chase Center? How dumb of us. Eye roll.
No picks today – see ya’ll tomorrow!

Premiums, 1.7

By
Chris R. Farley
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The Bucks allowed 50 points in the 1st QTR, at home, completely healthy, to one of the league’s worst teams in the Charlotte Hornets. Milwaukee lost 138-109. That’s all you need to know about this NBA season so far.

Did a bunch of research this morning, exhausted, so here are my picks with little explanation. Sorry about that – gotta get the day going:
NBA:
Warriors 1H -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Magic/Warriors under 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Warriors -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The return of Iguodala is a nice leadership spark for a Warriors team that’s starting to gain some steam. The Magic are a much better team this year but this is a tough spot against Golden State, off 3 days rest. Warriors defense has been great at home, Wiggins is back– time for the Warriors to roll from the jump.
CBB (3-4, -0.57 units):
 
Creighton +7 (-110), to win 1 unit
Creighton is a really good basketball team in good spots and in their conference, just not against unfamiliar teams. UCONN is familiar– I think they give them all they can handle.
Alabama -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Bama’s pace at home will be too much for Kentucky, who’s just not built with the same pedigree as they had in the past.
George Mason -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Loyola isn’t the same brand this year either and they’ve been really struggling in rebounding, one area that could kill them today. Mason’s ball movement is elite and I see them overwhelming the Ramblers at home.
Michigan/Michigan St. under 139.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I love Kiev’s handicap at TheOddsBreakers in this game and I tend to agree; even more so between two big rivals. This will have a testy, raucous mid-season feel with a lot of defense.
Villanova -1.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Just the better team, at home, with more experience and pedigree, even though Xavier has been on a white-hot-run– this is the time for it to falter.
Green Bay +13 (-110), to win 1 unit
Cleveland State just isn’t used to being this heavy of a favorite, especially in-conference– they failed to cover on Nov 18th the last time they were this big of a favorite– last year Cleveland State got the better of them twice by margin, too. Significant motivation for the dog.

Saturday, January 7th CBB Free Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1u): Nebraska/Minnesota UNDER 129.5–11 AM CT

Both teams rank in the bottom quarter of the country in pace, and neither are trustworthy offensively. Nebraska shoots less than 30% from 3, and while the Golden Gophers are a bit better from deep, they shoot less than 43% overall from the floor. Both also hold a 1.0-1.1 assist/turnover ratio; that could be worse, but it’s not good enough to overcome their struggles in the shotmaking department.

A HUGE factor in me playing the full game Under is how bad these teams are from the foul line. Minnesota shoots just 59% from the charity stripe, good for 361st out of 363 teams. Nebraska’s 63.5% mark might seem substantially better, but that’s still a bottom 20 mark in the country. This one’s staying Under.

*CBB(1u): Xavier 1H +1 @ Villanova–3:30 PM CT

Villanova has simply lost a step in its first year following Jay Wright’s departure. We had seen the defense slip before, and that remains true this season(I do not have this power rated as a Top 100 defense). But, in my opinion, their offense is not what people think it is. If you’re going to play at the slow pace Villanova likes to play at, you have to rely on the ability to make jumpers. Well, Villanova has regressed in that area. In particular, the ‘Cats are shooting less than 34% from beyond the arc this season. That’s a concern given they also rank 319th in offensive rebounding %, providing little chance for second chance points.

I really like the makeup of this Xavier team. They’re an experienced group that is shooting nearly 51% from the floor and holds a borderline elite 1.5 assist/turnover ratio. The defense lags behind a bit, but I think they’ll be bailed out by Villanova’s lack of presence inside. In addition, the Musketeers are in great current form fresh off a double-digit win over UCONN.

Villanova is still the best free-throw shooting team in America, so out of respect for that, I’ll isolate this in the 1H. With that said, there’s plenty pointing me towards a play on Xavier here, especially as a ‘dog.

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