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Week 13 CFB Best Bets

By
Michael Fordham
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The final week of the CFB regular season is upon us! I’ve locked in 6 plays for this weekend and will add additional plays to this post as we approach the weekend.

To receive a text when I add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Florida/Florida State OVER 58–Friday 6:30 PM CT

Florida State’s offense is playing at a championship level this year, and I think it’s quite sustainable. The OL has allowed just 1 sack/game this year and paved the way for Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward to run for over 6.5 YPC. QB Jordan Travis has thrown more than 5 times as many TD’s as INT’s, is a factor in the run game, and has more proficiency in the vertical passing game than given credit for(8.9 Y/A). Florida’s defense is incredibly mediocre, particularly within their Front 7. Even in the secondary, we saw the likes of Jayden Daniels and Haynes King(in the 1st Half) move the ball through the air pretty easily against the Gators. Given the multiplicity and effectiveness up front, I see FSU getting into the mid-to-upper-30’s.

Florida State’s defense is going to look much improved on paper, but who have they played in the last month? Good performances vs Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana is not enough to make me forget the cracks they showed against formidable offenses earlier in the season. Clemson RB Will Shipley ran for over 6 YPC on this defense, and Louisville found a way into the 30’s as well. Florida obviously laid a clunker in Nashville last week, but this offense has shown major strides throughout the season. Even in the loss, Anthony Richardson threw for 400 yards against Vanderbilt last week; we already know what he can do in the run game(6.6 YPC). Additionally, the Gators are stout up front and feature a pair of 6 YPC backs.

I see something along the likes of a 38-27 or 38-30 game; there is value on this Over when you contextualize Florida State’s recent defensive success.

*CFB(1u): Clemson 1H -7.5 vs South Carolina–Saturday 11 AM CT

Credit South Carolina for taking advantage of a clear weakness that was Tennessee’s secondary last week. With that said, we have to remember how inept this offense was for most of SEC play. They are still not healthy at RB and have been handled up front for most of the season; even including last week’s monster performance, QB Spencer Rattler is still under 8 Y/A on the season. Ever since the debacle against Wake Forest, Clemson’s secondary has really sharpened up to pair with what we knew was already a very stout Front 7. I expect South Carolina to revert right back to looking like a mediocre-below average offense.

I’m really not impressed with South Carolina’s defense, either. While they are pretty solid in their secondary, they routinely allow teams to establish the run given their relative weakness within their Front 7. Clemson RB Will Shipley has had a good sophomore campaign(5.6 YPC), and Phil Mafah has emerged as a solid complementary option. I’m not a big DJ Uiagaleilei guy, but with the way I think the run gets established in this matchup, I expect their to be opportunities for #5 in the vertical passing game.

I’m isolating this in the 1H because I do worry about a potential backdoor. Clemson has the ACC Championship to worry about next week, and I don’t trust their second-team secondary to hold South Carolina’s offense at bay. With 1’s on 1’s, however, I expect Clemson to take a double-digit lead into the Half.

*CFB(1u): Texas A&M +10 vs LSU–Saturday 6 PM CT

LSU is the most overrated team in College Football; it’s laughable to consider them a legitimate playoff contender(we won’t have to worry about that for much longer). Specifically, this team has looked anything but impressive on the road this season. Against Auburn, they were out-gained by 168 yards but forced 4 turnovers to escape with a win. Against Arkansas, they gained less than 300 yards vs a bottom 2 defense in the SEC; if KJ Jefferson plays that game, LSU loses by double-digits.

In both of those aforementioned road games, LSU QB Jayden Daniels threw for less than 100 yards in each and was sacked a combined 10 times. Say what you want about Texas A&M’s season, but the clear strength of that team is their pass defense, making this another tough matchup for Daniels. While pass rush is not a calling card of this A&M defense, I can’t overlook how bad LSU’s offensive line is; Daniels has been sacked 4+ times in OVER HALF of LSU’s games this season. Does this sound like a team you want to lay double-digits in a tough road environment with?

Texas A&M’s offense is expected to welcome back their leading rusher Devon Achane(5.6 YPC) and leading WR Evan Stewart for the season finale. QB Conner Weigman is still a true freshman that has taken his lumps, but I have been impressed with his ability to take care of the football(6 TD vs 0 INT this season). With 5 star QB’s, there is always the chance that the talent shines when you least expect it. LSU’s front 7 has impressed me this season, and the emergence of LB Harold Perkins adds to that strength. However, I think the Tigers secondary leaves some to be desired and is not unbeatable. Advantage is still towards LSU on this side of the matchup, but they won’t totally overwhelm Texas A&M to the degree many believe they will.

With A&M not going to a bowl, this becomes the Aggies’ pseudo bowl game. At night, at Kyle Field is not a desirable spot for anybody, and as such, I see this as a major step-up spot for the Aggies. Additionally, LSU is clearly looking ahead to their matchup with Georgia next weekend in Atlanta. LSU should win, but as history has shown, it won’t be in convincing fashion.

*CFB(1u): Syracuse/Boston College UNDER 47–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

Boston College’s offense has been one of the most disappointing units in all of CFB this season. Right on cue, the Golden Eagles added to that disappointment by getting blanked at Notre Dame last week. With BC, it all starts up front; they’ve allowed 14 sacks over the last 3 games and provided no push in the run game, as leading RB Phil Garwo is averaging just 3 YPC on the season. I wouldn’t call Syracuse’s front 7 great, but the one thing I like about Syracuse’s defense is their ability to limit explosiveness through the air. Even teams like UCONN and Virginia Tech have outclassed this BC offense.

To a lesser degree, Syracuse faces some of these same issues. QB Garrett Schrader has been sacked 3 times/game over his last 4 starts, and he has regressed significantly in the vertical passing game over the course of the season. RB Sean Tucker’s numbers look fine, but when compared to his talent level and upside, it’s clear that Syracuse’s OL issues are holding back what could be a solid offense. I’m of the belief that Boston College’s defense is actually pretty solid; like Syracuse, they do an especially good job of limiting explosiveness through the air. Given the high floor of their pass rush, I think they will give Syracuse many of the same troubles they’ve experienced in recent weeks.

Anything above 45 presents a good opportunity to play on the Under here.

*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Texas Tech OVER 63.5–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

I have some PTSD after seeing Oklahoma score 28 points in the 1Q last week only to get blanked the rest of the way, but I’m still of the belief that, when Dillon Dabriel is healthy, this is a trustworthy offense. Gabriel has left a ton of plays on the field this year, yet he still has thrown for over 8 Y/A and holds an 18:5 TD/INT ratio. The Sooners have impressed me along their OL all year, paving the way for RB Eric Gray to have a massive year(1200 yards, 6.5 YPC). Texas Tech is fairly physical up front, but with my expectation the Sooners win up front, the Red Raiders have proven to be leaky in their Back 7 in their tougher matchups.

Like Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby, Texas Tech OC Zach Kittley runs his offense at a maniacally fast pace. While Texas Tech has played QB roulette this year, they have finally settled on Tyler Shough as their full time starter. Shough has never played a full season, but his past success within multiple systems(8.9 career Y/A) clearly elevates the floor of this offense that they didn’t have with Behren Morton or Donovan Smith. I worry about this offense facing good pass rushing teams, but that doesn’t apply in this matchup given Oklahoma’s mediocrity in that department. Give the Sooners credit for improving in their Back 7 over the course of the season, but I think last week’s “success” has a lot more to say about Oklahoma State’s ineptitude offensively. Quite frankly, I’m not sold the Sooners’ defense has put it all together.

With 2 fast-paced teams, you don’t need perfection from either side to cash the Over. I think this is a “first to 35 wins” kind of game with the potential to go much higher.

Added Wednesday Night

*CFB(1u): UCLA -10 @ California–Friday 3:30 PM CT

UCLA suffered a heartbreaking loss to USC last weekend and is now officially out of Pac12 title contention. While some teams could succumb to a “flat spot” in response, I’m betting on Chip Kelly to have his veteran-laden team ready to take the anger out on a clearly inferior opponent. California is out of bowl contention themselves and is probably content after beating rival Stanford last week. Unlike other conferences, I don’t believe the bottom half of the Pac12 is equipped to take advantage of even the best of spots when stepping up against the top half of the conference.

UCLA has one of the most balanced offenses in the country. RB Zach Charbonnet comes into this matchup over 7 YPC, and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a true dual threat, completing 70% of his passes at over 8 Y/A and being a major part of the Bruins run game. While the Cal run defense has stepped up well at times this year, do I really expect them to hold down Charbonnet and DTR for the full 60 minutes? From there, I expect DTR to take advantage of a pretty weak Cal secondary, a unit that is left hanging out to dry by the Golden Bears’ non-existent pass rush.

Cal’s offense is the definition of mediocre. QB Jack Plummer is throwing for under 7 Y/A at just a 62% completion rate, and he is often found under immense pressure in his tougher matchups. RB Jadyn Ott’s numbers don’t look bad on the surface, but if you take away one fluky performance vs Arizona which still accounts for over 30% of his yardage output, he has been mediocre as well. As we saw last week, UCLA’s defense is far from stellar. I was defintley expecting them to step up better than they did against the run, but to a certain degree, they got beat by a superior set of talent. That is something that simply doesn’t apply in this matchup, especially considering I’m expecting them to win up front vs this Golden Bears OL.

Perhaps I’d be more worried about UCLA getting themselves up off the mat if they hadn’t laid an egg vs Arizona the week before they played the Trojans. I’m expecting a good bounce back performance from this group and a 2 TD+ win.

NHL Preview & Picks – November 23rd, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have a massive slate tonight with fifteen games taking place across the NHL. There will be no games taking place tomorrow with American Thanksgiving taking place. I offer my best bets of the night along with a few player props to target.

 

Pick(s):

  • Calgary Flames/ Pittsburgh Penguins over 6.5 (-118) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units

These two teams will square off for the second time this season. In their first matchup, the Flames defeated the Penguins 4-1.

After losing their first six games in November, the Flames have won four of their last five. Their offense has come alive scoring five or more in three of those matchups. The Penguins have also been on a hot streak winning their last three games. During that span, Pittsburgh has outscored their opponents 14-7.

Both of these teams have had an offensive revitalization in the past few games while their defense has been lackluster. Jacob Markstrom and Tristan Jarry have been confirmed as the starters for tonight. On the year Markstrom has a 3.03 GAA and 0.889 SV% while Jarry has a 3.27 GAA and 0.904 SV%. In Markstrom’s last four starts he’s allowed three or more goals against in three of those games. Jarry has also been struggling allowing three or more goals against in four of his last five starts.

 

  • Colorado Avalanche in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units

The Avalanche have won three straight, all on the road I might add. They’ll travel home to take on the Canucks who are coming off a loss against the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite going .500 through the first few games, Colorado has seemed to right the ship. While Vancouver was horrendous to start the year, they have also been playing some better hockey as of late. Both of these teams can score but the biggest mismatch comes in net. Thatcher Demko is likely to get the start for the Canucks who has the 2nd worst GSAx in the NHL (-9.1) Alexandar Georgiev is expected to get the nod for the Avalanche who ranks 8th with a +8.0 GSAx. To make matters worse for Vancouver, they’ve struggled on the road this year scoring fewer goals and allowing more than at home. Despite Colorado’s injury woes, they still have a superior lineup and should be able to win this game in regulation.

 

  • New York Rangers/ Anaheim Ducks over 6.0 (-108) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.27 to win 0.25 Units

(Only if Jaroslav Halak is confirmed for NYR)

New York’s coming off a game last night where they defeated the Los Angeles Kings on the road 5-3. Igor Shesterkin started for the Rangers against the Kings so it’ll likely be Jaroslav Halak tonight. While Shesterkin hasn’t looked like he did last season, he’s still been much better than his backup. In Halak’s five starts, he has a 3.22 GAA, .883 SV%, and -3.1 GSAx. The Ducks have confirmed John Gibson as their starting goaltender tonight. He also hasn’t had a great start to the year with a 4.15 GAA, .891 SV%, and -5.8 GSAx.

While the Rangers rank 20th in GF/G, their offense has recently shown some signs of life. Oddly enough, they’ve been better on the road averaging 3.50 GF/G compared to 2.60 GF/G at MSG. Anaheim’s offense on the other hand has remained stagnant. However, given the goaltender situation for the Rangers, they should be able to get a few by Halak. The Ducks also average half a goal more at home. With this total only sitting at 6.0 and the expected goaltender matchup, these teams should be able to reach this number.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Brent Burns over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-110)
    • He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 SOG and over 8.0 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Coyotes rank 30th in SOG allowed per game and allow the 2nd most SOG to Defensemen.
  • Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120)
    • He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 SOG and over 5.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Islanders rank 20th in SOG allowed per game and allow the 2nd most SOG to Centers.
  • Jason Robertson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
    • He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.4 SOG and over 7.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blackhawks rank 29th in SOG allowed per game and allow the 12th most SOG to Left Wingers.
  • Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-134)
    • He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Ducks rank 32nd in SOG allowed per game and allow the most SOG to Centers.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NBA Premiums, Full List 11.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Annoying, anticlimactic 2-2 Tuesday. Adding one play in red, below:

Hornets -3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Really tough spot for the 76ers. Coming off a nice win where they expended almost all of their bench’s energy, they’ll have to turn around and head to Charlotte a day before Thanksgiving to take on a Hornets team just waiting to pound. They’re still without LaMelo Ball but they’re healthy otherwise off 3 days of rest. Not a great team yet but this is a nice situation for them to take advantage and feel good about themselves. Hornets roll.

Timberwolves/Pacers 1H over anything 121.5 or lower (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should be a very fast-paced game between two teams who are top 10 in OFF EFF and pace over their last 5 games. I like how they matchup, too. Pacers play small ball and try to tire out their competition, while the T-Wolves can use their own energy and length advantage throughout the contest. Both proficient shooting and scoring, I like a quick start and a ton of points. We’re seeing some totals die in the second half so just take the 1st half when it comes out. I’m guessing this comes out around 119.5 and probably right before lunch.
Kings/Hawks under 239 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line is a bit too high. All of the Kings’ main scorers played for over 33 minutes in a tough game at Memphis last night. Even Malik Monk put in over 20 minutes off the bench, one of their more reliable 2nd unit scorers. The Hawks have been moving fast at home, that’s true, but they’re also a top 11 defense and their offensive efficiency has waned as of late. When a team like the Hawks can’t obliterate a team offensively, they turn to their defense. Lately Atlanta has allowed too many points in losses, too, including 114 to Cleveland, 126 to Boston, 121 to Philly, and 125 to Utah. The emphasis should be on slowing down the Kings and making life difficult for their surging offense on their home floor. Going under this time.
Heat/Wizards over 211.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Tyler Herro should be back to support Bam Adebayo tomorrow. Dedmon, Strus, and Vincent could also be back. Bradley Beal is questionable but I suspect he’ll compete. It’s a game before Thanksgiving, so a showcase game of sorts, and both teams shot TERRIBLY when they met a few days ago. This will go higher than expected as both squads recalibrate and focus on offense.
 
Bucks -7 (-110), to win 1.5 units
If this line gets lower, we may double down.
The Bucks have the Bulls number. Last year they swept Chicago in the regular season and then correspondingly knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round. They won those playoff games by an average of 16.75 points. Maybe this could be considered a “revenge spot” for Chicago but they’re fresh off a shocking win against the Celtics so it’s very likely they’re thinking a little too much of themselves right now. That’s not a good perspective to have when you’re going up against my #1 power rated team when healthy. And besides Middleton, they are healthy. I think we see the best Bucks unit we’ve seen so far this season and they throttle the Bulls at home.
Jazz 1H -6.5 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Another line that isn’t out yet but should be right before lunch tomorrow, maybe earlier. I imagine the Jazz will be 5-6 point favorites at the half. This is what Utah does– they SMASH bad teams at home, they’re healthy, and this is a terrible turnaround spot for the worst team in the NBA. They’re also very injured, I might add. We’ll look to take the Jazz full game if this line drops at all. Either way, love Utah early.

Podcast 82 – 22 – Happy Thanksgiving With Bryan Leonard – NFL Week 12 Plays – College Football Week 13 Rivalry Week – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Bryan Leonard @BLeonardSports from WagerTalk.com @WagerTalk comes on to discuss a wonderful holiday full of HUGE games!  First, Kiev talks about the College Football week 13 rivalry week slate of games with some FREE PLAYS and leans!  Next, Bryan comes on and the guys talk about the 5 most overrated and underrated things about Thanksgiving.  After that, the guys get into the full slate of NFL week 12 games including the three for Thursday!  Finally, Kiev gives out a teaser that is now 6-4-1 and talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week.  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Early NBA Premiums, 11.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hornets -3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Really tough spot for the 76ers. Coming off a nice win where they expended almost all of their bench’s energy, they’ll have to turn around and head to Charlotte a day before Thanksgiving to take on a Hornets team just waiting to pound. They’re still without LaMelo Ball but they’re healthy otherwise off 3 days of rest. Not a great team yet but this is a nice situation for them to take advantage and feel good about themselves. Hornets roll.

Timberwolves/Pacers 1H over anything 121.5 or lower (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should be a very fast-paced game between two teams who are top 10 in OFF EFF and pace over their last 5 games. I like how they matchup, too. Pacers play small ball and try to tire out their competition, while the T-Wolves can use their own energy and length advantage throughout the contest. Both proficient shooting and scoring, I like a quick start and a ton of points. We’re seeing some totals die in the second half so just take the 1st half when it comes out. I’m guessing this comes out around 119.5 and probably right before lunch.
Heat/Wizards over 211.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Tyler Herro should be back to support Bam Adebayo tomorrow. Dedmon, Strus, and Vincent could also be back. Bradley Beal is questionable but I suspect he’ll compete. It’s a game before Thanksgiving, so a showcase game of sorts, and both teams shot TERRIBLY when they met a few days ago. This will go higher than expected as both squads recalibrate and focus on offense.
 
Bucks -7 (-110), to win 1.5 units
If this line gets lower, we may double down.
The Bucks have the Bulls number. Last year they swept Chicago in the regular season and then correspondingly knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round. They won those playoff games by an average of 16.75 points. Maybe this could be considered a “revenge spot” for Chicago but they’re fresh off a shocking win against the Celtics so it’s very likely they’re thinking a little too much of themselves right now. That’s not a good perspective to have when you’re going up against my #1 power rated team when healthy. And besides Middleton, they are healthy. I think we see the best Bucks unit we’ve seen so far this season and they throttle the Bulls at home.
Jazz 1H -6.5 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Another line that isn’t out yet but should be right before lunch tomorrow, maybe earlier. I imagine the Jazz will be 5-6 point favorites at the half. This is what Utah does– they SMASH bad teams at home, they’re healthy, and this is a terrible turnaround spot for the worst team in the NBA. They’re also very injured, I might add. We’ll look to take the Jazz full game if this line drops at all. Either way, love Utah early.

Fantasy Football Week 12

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bye Weeks:  None

Key Injuries:

  • TE Kyle Pitts Torn MCL and needs surgery.
  • QB Justin Fields with a left shoulder but day to day.
  • RB Joe Mixon with a concussion.
  • WR Kadarious Toney with a hammy.
  • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire with an ankle.
  • WR Wandale Robinson torn his ACL.
  • WR Mike Williams with an ankle.
  • RB Jaylen Warren with a hammy.

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Samaje Perine for the Mixon injury.
  • QB Taylor Heinickie vs Atlanta.
  • RB Traveon Williams for the Mixon Injury.
  • WR Richie James for the WanDale Robinson Injury.
  • WR Demarcus Robinson had 9 targets for the Ravens.
  • RB Latavius Murray for the Broncos.
  • QB Trevor Simeon for the Fields injury potentially.
  • WR Skyy Moore for the Toney Injury.
  • WR Justin Watson

Non-Starters Trending Up for Week 12

  • WR Alec Pierce vs the horrible Steelers pass D.
  • WR Jakobi Meyers vs the Vikings D.
  • TE Logan Thomas vs Atlanta’s bad pass D.
  • QB Taylor Heinicke vs a bad Atlanta D.
  • WR Gabe Davis vs the Lions bad D.
  • WR Allen Robinson vs the Chiefs D.
  • RB Jeff Wilson vs the horrible Texans D.
  • RB Trestan Ebner vs the Jets is interesting.

Busts:

  • Travis Etienne vs Baltimore is scary.
  • RB Nick Chubb vs Tampa isn’t a great proposition.
  • RB Isaiah Pacheco vs the Rams D isn’t a great Idea.
  • WR Kenny Goliday vs the Cowboys isn’t fun.
  • WR Christian Watson vs the Eagles could bust.
  • RB D’Onte Forman vs the Broncos isn’t fun.
  • WR DJ Moore vs the Broncos is dangerous.

Nasty Sleeper:

RB Jeff Wilson vs the horrible Texans D.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets: Free Thanksgiving Picks, NBA Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Contest-winner and pro handicapper Chris Farley is back to talk the Thanksgiving NFL slate and some of his favorite NBA plays on the November 22nd card. Tune in for this quick, amped up podcast from FarleyBets!

Want Chris’ premium picks? Well, you should probably consider it. Chris started off his NBA season white hot, up nearly 7 units and hitting at 58% out the gate. He also had a big week in NFL Week 10 and historically, the second half of the season is where he does best! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:

  • 2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
  • Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
  • 2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
  • Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
  • Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency

November 22nd CBB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 3-1 night in CBB to start the week, I’m back today with 4 more plays for you. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(0.5u): Akron TT UNDER 65.5 vs LSU–12:30 PM CT

*CBB(0.5u): Rider TT UNDER 61 @ Rutgers–6 PM CT

*CBB(0.5u): Northwestern -3 vs Liberty–7:30 PM CT

*CBB(0.5u): Arizona State -18.5 vs Grambling State–8 PM CT

No write-ups for today… I’ll be back later this evening with my weeknight CFB action

Adding Ben Simmons PAR Prop

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

So lord knows I haven’t been a Ben Simmons fan; he’s someone I can bet against in big game and high-pressure moments, but I think he may get some revenge tonight.

The 76ers will be without Harden, Embiid, and Maxey. This checks out as a game where the Nets will lead and lead big throughout. It also checks out as a game where since the Nets should be ahead, they can work-in more of their bench players and feature Simmons throughout the contest.
Holding my breath a bit but hey – Simmons is averaging 30.3 PAR (points, rebounds, assists) in his last 3 games. So we’ll take:
Simmons PAR over anything 25 or less, to win 1 unit

NBA Premiums, 11.22

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Well, we can’t take last night’s results too personally. We just happened to pick the two games where there was massive regression. This happens from time to time in the NBA and it sucks that it ended our hot streak, but it is what it is.

  • The Celtics were on a 9 game winning streak and virtually flawless on offense. They faced one of the NBA’s most inconsistent defenses and only put up 50 pts at the half. That ruined both of our wagers.
  • The Bucks were off a ton of rest and playing Portland without Lillard. The Bucks have been one of the best 1Q teams in the NBA since the season started, too. Two teams that are predicated on defense and slower paced and it didn’t matter– the opposite occurred and we paid the price.
We move on!
NBA Premiums, 11.22 
 
Kings -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Kings/Grizzlies over 233 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Ja Morant is doubtful and we know the Grizz continue to play without Desmond Bane. The Kings have absolutely no reason to change their style of play– it’s working! They’re running fast, they’re the #1 offense in the NBA right now, they’re healthy, and this is a game they can win by margin. Their approach should be the same as always– tire out a Grizzlies team that likes to go fast at home too. In this case, we like that for the over, but the Grizz probably don’t have the personnel to keep up offensively. Go Kings!
 
Suns 1Q -2.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Suns 1H -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I think there’s a chance the Lakers itch their way back into this game so I’d rather not take the full game, plus the number sits very close to where I would put it (-8), but the Suns start fast and efficient at home and I don’t think LAL can keep up early. In general, the Lakers are a slower, older team who falls to teams like Phoenix. The Suns are starting to figure things out without CP3 and even though they miss their leader in tougher spots (namely on the road), they’ve been lights-out at home. The Suns assist ratio, rebounding, offensive and defensive efficiency are all top 7 marks at home over the last 2 weeks. The Lakers run at the fastest pace in the NBA when they’re on the road and oh, PS – their offensive efficiency is dead last when away from the Staples Center, too. The Suns do what they do and they hurt LAL early, and by margin.
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