The rivalry continues in East Lansing today with two motivated teams trying to make some headwind in the big 10! Michigan State is looked at as the slightly better team who had a lull in their season when Malik Hall was out. This is why they are favored with home court and the hook. Sparty this year has slowed it down some ranking 249th in average possession length, and improving their defense to 49th. Michigan on the other hand still has their big lumberjack center in Hunter Dickenson who averages 18.7 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. He is the heart and soul of this team. Last year these two teams split in their games and each won at home by margin. Now the wolverines under Juwan Howard have a slightly faster pace ranking 98th in average possession length, but that doesn’t factor in that they have had a relatively easy non-conference schedule playing weak defenses in transition. I think the spread is good on this game so I will look at the total here. Sparty should be able to control the clock in this game with their slow pace and I also love the fact that both teams rank in the top 37 in turnovers and in the bottom 70 in forcing turnovers. Hunter Dickenson, being so large, sometimes can’t run the court for the full duration of the game so there will be times that Michigan will have to slow it down or sub him out. Malik Hall will be defending him and both players know each other quite well. Big 10 play means big defense. Take the under.
ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell speaks with the media before the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 28, 2021 in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Lions vs Packers -5 O/U 49
Lots can be said about this game being that the Lions will either have a shot at the playoffs by game-time if the Rams beat the Seahawks, or their hopes and dreams will be crushed and the Packers win by one million. Or…. Is Dan Campbell a coach that is going to have his team pissed off to take the sniveling packers out of playoff contention? I think the latter. We know that the Packers have been a good team when they got healthy ripping off four wins in a row, but lets be real. Beating Chicago, the beat up Rams, concussed Miami, and an over-rated Vikings team doesn’t do it for me. When looking at the numbers here, you have to also factor in that the Lions were very banged up earlier in the season as well. Now the Lions have an added weapon in Jameson Williams, which will help pick apart the Packers secondary. The Lions are number six in offensive EPA while the Packers are 12th. Detroit is number 31 in defensive EPA while the Packers are 25h, but over the past 5 weeks, the Lions are up to 25th in defensive EPA. I think the Lions are about equal in strength to this Packers team, and the spread should be 3 at best.
Lions +5 – 3 stars
Parlay: Jaguars -250 with Saints -165 – 2 stars – Jaguars are playing at home against a backup quarterback in Josh Dobbs. The Saints will want to finish the season well after being embarrassed all year.
Teaser: Bengals to -2.5 with the Browns to +8.5 – 2 stars
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More drudgery on Thursday, but we’re not giving up yet. Remember, this is how we did the last two seasons:
2020-21: 207-152 (58%), +55 units
2021-22: 283-223 (56%), +73.10 units
Regression is coming, eventually. Hang on–
NBA:
Bulls +4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The 76ers are a great team but the Bulls, holding my breath here, are indeed playing better basketball right now. This line fell with Embiid out and it’s reasonable to think the Bulls could win this game outright. Because of that, gotta love the +4. Chicago has a B2B tomorrow but they should care more about this game. Unless Harden goes off (eye roll), this should be a close game or a Bulls win.
Nets -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Unless Brooklyn completely shits the bed, the Pelicans will struggle keeping up with Nets; this is where Zion and Ingram’s absence really comes into play.
Raptors -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line doesn’t make sense at first glance. Toronto has struggled mightily this season and hasn’t seemed as much of a unit as they have in the past. But I really like how they played against Milwaukee the other night. The Knicks have no presence on their team like Giannis, and even though RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson are playing well, I expect a much healthier Raptors team to limit. They’re on a long home stand, too. Stickin ‘my neck out again for Toronto– this is their spot to win.
Hornets/Bucks 1Q over 59.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Bucks 1H -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Bucks -10 (-110), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen a lot of blow outs lately as great teams are starting to find their flow. The NBA Injury Report says Giannis and Jrue will both be available tonight, and that’s all we need to know. I don’t think the Hornets defense can stop Milwaukee for 1 second and the Bucks’ aren’t playing playoff defense yet. Like a fast start, and as long as some crazy NBA injury news doesn’t pull a fast one on us, this is a smash spot for the Bucks.
CBB (2-2, -0.2 units)
Oakland +7 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This checks out as a close game between two pretty evenly matched teams, and I love that Northern Kentucky is a bad 3 point defense and the Grizzlies are an above average team from beyond the arc. This should remain tight throughout.
Columbia ML (+500), to win 2.5 units
Columbia +11.5 (-110) to win 1.25 units
We’ve seen this story before in intra-divisional teams when a home opponent is a big dog. Five of Columbia’s wins have come at home, and while Princeton is clearly the better squad, they haven’t exactly faced the class of college basketball in their non-divisional games. Columbia shoots 3-pointers at a high rate, a rate Princeton might not be ready for, and if they start falling the momentum could build for the Lions at home.
We have a great show for you today! Justin Perri @JustinPerri8 joins us to talk about a big weekend of conference play college basketball!First, Kiev gets into a recap of his betting records for 2022. Kiev is 24-12-1 in college bowl season up 31U, 115-93-1 in NFL up 30U. Next, we talk about the College Football national championship with a FREE PLAY! Then, Kiev gets into the highly volatile NFL full slate of games with some more big plays and some more leans as well as his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-6-1 for the year. Next, Justin comes on to talk about some college basketball games and plays for the weekend. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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*CBB(1u): Maryland TT UNDER 63 @ Rutgers–5:30 PM CT
Rutgers is one of the easiest defenses to trust in all of CBB, and that’s especially true when they’re playing at home. The Scarlet Knights are allowing just 55.7 PPG on their home floor this year, including 57 to Wake Forest, 48 to Indiana, and 45 to Seton Hall. Maryland laid an egg in Ann Arbor the other day in a pitiful 46 point effort, but that has little to do with why I’m fading their offense here. Maryland is a team that struggles to hit the 3-ball(<31%) and holds a mere 1:1 assist/turnover ratio. We’ve seen them struggle when stepping up in competition this year, failing to surpass 60 vs Wisconsin, Tennessee, and UCLA. Additionally, they hold no edge on the glass against this staunch Rutgers frontcourt.
Neither of these teams are going to want to turn this into a track meet, so I’m a bit perplexed as to why this Maryland TT starts with a 6. The Terps are strong defensively which could keep them in this game, but I see them having little success offensively in this spot.
Back to back for both teams, and both teams have relied on their defense in tough spots all year. I have this at 222.
Taytum under 30.5 points (+100), to win 1 unit
Doncic over 52.5 PAR (-125), to win 1 unit
The Celtics are struggling a bit right now and their rotation is off because of RGIII returning. That doesn’t bode well for Tatyum’s rhythm against a Dallas’ defense that’s improving and I love Luka to always show out in spotlight games.
Rockets +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Rockets ML (+205), to win 1 unit
The Jazz may not be as interesting in winning for the second half of this season, we’ll see, but they’re a tired team back on the road and the Rockets are young, off 3 days rest, and these are the spots they can upset teams.
CBB (1-1, -0.1 units):
Maryland +5 (-110), to win 1 unit
MD/Rutgers under 131.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
The Terps are better on offense than they’ve shown and I think they positively regress tonight in another Big 10 contest. They can’t keep getting embarrassed in these big games and Rutgers, while they’ve been awesome defensively, is not a team that should be able to pull ahead easily like Michigan. Low scoring and the underdog.
Iowa State plays a staunch brand of defense, but this is an incredibly difficult road matchup. Oklahoma is DRAMATICALLY improved offensively from a year ago; they’re shooting over 50% from the floor and just under 40% from deep this season. The Sooners have come through on this end of the floor in even their toughest matchups to date(77 vs Seton Hall, 78 vs Arkansas).
The worst unit on the floor in this matchup(and it’s not close) is Iowa State’s offense. The Cyclones shoot a very mediocre 33.5% from deep and less than 70% from the foul line. The Cyclones do have some marquee wins this year(UNC, Baylor, Villanova), but none of those have come in true road matchups. Oklahoma is clearly the more balanced team, and ultimately, I can trust them to get points in multiple ways down the stretch of this game.
Iowa State will hang tough, but ultimately, I like Porter Mosier’s crew to pull away.
The Cardinals out-gained the Falcons 339 to 298 and lost 20-19. They won the turnover battle 1-0 but was bad in the red zone.
The Dolphins out-gained the Patriots 333 to 249 yet lost 23-21. A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them.
The Saints and Eagles tied at 313 yards yet the Saints won 20-10. Equal turnover ratio but horrible filed position and time of possession killed the Birds.
The Vikings out-gained the Packers 346 to 315 yet lost 41-17. A 4-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams got the Queens.
The Raiders out-gained the 49ers 500 – 454 yet lost 37-34. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.
I’m not mad about last night because, IMO, that was the right handicap, although we should watch and see just how motivated Utah is for the rest of the season. They might be less incentivized to win as the season goes on, hoping for better players in the draft.
On that note, I just feel much more comfortable with who these NBA teams are right now, so if I were you I’d start to express less caution in my plays. I know December was rough but things will and are turning around.
On another note, I’m going to start cherry picking CBB games to give you more plays and to diversify our bankroll risk on a daily basis. Can’t promise I’ll always have CBB plays but I’ll at least take a gander every day. My priority and expertise is still the NBA.
Onto hump day picks!
NBA:
Hawks ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Kings under 244 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maybe this moves more on the Kings’ side but I can’t predict this weird ass marketplace these days and it shouldn’t, I’ll tell ya that. This is an ideal spot for the Hawks to take care of business. The Kings are gonna be playing their 6th game in 8 days AND they’re on a back to back. That’s as bad as it gets. Atlanta needs to get right. Even on the road, this is the opportunity. Betting the under for the same reason we bet it today, and because the Kings’ will be even more tired. This is a Dejounte Murray game, aka more defense from Atlanta.
Ja Morant over 27.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Yea I don’t see ANY WAY that Charlotte can stop Ja. His style of play is not something the soft interior defense of Charlotte can contain, and he’ll need to do even more with the Grizzlies’ slew of injuries currently.
Knicks TT over 118.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m only playing this for 1 unit since I have the Knicks scoring 121 points in this, but there’s plenty of reasons to believe they can get even higher in this game. The Knicks are starting to focus more on offense again, and in their last battle against SAS a few games ago, they lost without Jalen Brunson. As usual, without Brunson their offense was clumsy and inefficient. This is a revenge spot, and SAS’s defense is among the worst in the NBA recently. In fact, they’re THE worst this season on the road. Opportunities abound for the Knicks to smash tonight.
Pacers TT under 111.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Pacers have been running hard and looking very efficient on offense lately, but that was mostly against teams in turmoil (the Hawks) or good teams in really tough spots (LAC). Plus, anomalies tend to happen more often around the holidays. Now that thing’s have settled down, one of the NBA’s best defenses in the 76ers will host Indiana in an attempt to slow them down. I think they’ll be successful. Philadelphia is healthy, they run at a very slow pace, and this total is too high for a Pacers’ team that averages only 106 ppg against above average defenses (like Philly, Miami, Boston, LAC, etc.). One unit out of respect for their momentum.
CBB:
Villanova 1H -5 (-115), to win 1 unit
The Hoyas are really struggling this year and especially against Big East. A more talented, experienced Nova squad, fresh off a bad loss, will come into this extra motivated to pour it on Georgetown early. I think they cover, maybe by double-digits, early.
Belmont/UIC over 144 (-110), to win 1 unit
This total is too low. UIC is not a good shooting team but they’re at home and Belmont’s tempo and demanding offensive efficiency should push them to play aggressively on offense. They’ll need to if they want to compete. Belmont’s defense has been trash, allowing over 71 ppg. Like the over.
