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NHL Preview & Picks – November 7th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have a small slate tonight with only three games taking place across the NHL. I break down each game and offer my best bets of the night.

 

Game Previews:

St. Louis Blues (+165) @ Boston Bruins (-195)

The Blues started the season strong winning their first three games. However, they have lost their last six games being outscored 30-10 during that span.

Boston has had a great start to the season going 10-2 despite missing some key players. They’re 6-0 at home with their two losses coming on the road to Toronto and Ottawa.

STL: J. Binnington (confirmed)

BOS: L. Ullmark (confirmed)

 

Calgary Flames (-120) @ New York Islanders (+100)

The Calgary Flames started off the year strong going 5-1-0 but have been on a cold streak as of late losing their last four games. During that span, they’ve averaged 4 goals against per game. This is also just their second game on the road this year.

The Islanders have been great at home this year with a 4-2-0 record. They’re coming off a three-game road trip where they went 2-1. That lone loss was in their previous game against the Detroit Red Wings.

CGY: J. Markstrom (confirmed)

NYI: I. Sorokin (confirmed)

 

Edmonton Oilers (-165) @ Washington Capitals (+140)

The Oilers have dropped their last two games to New Jersey and Dallas. They’ll begin a four-game road trip tonight starting in the nation’s capital. On the year, they’re 7-5-0 and sit in 4th place in the Pacific Division.

Washington has been sub-par to start the year with a 5-6-2 record. They’re currently on a four-game losing streak. The good news for the Capitals is that they have a better record at home.

EDM: S. Skinner (confirmed)

WSH: C. Lindgren (confirmed)

 

Pick(s):

  • Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units

Both the Oilers and Capitals have been struggling as of late. The Oilers have dropped their last two games while Washington has lost four straight. However, the issues for these teams are slightly different.

While averaging 3.83 GF/G on the year, the Oilers’ offense has been performing at a below-average rate in their last two games. Edmonton’s defensive woes also continue as they’re allowing the 24th most GA/G. Part of that blame can be passed to Jack Campbell who hasn’t had an ideal start to the season.

Washington is riddled with injuries and has shown no signs of breaking out of the slump they’re in. Due to all of the injuries up front, they’re struggled to produce and capitalize on any scoring chances they do generate. Defensively, they’re 11th in GA/G but could be much worse if it wasn’t for the play of Darcy Kuemper. However, Charlie Lindgren will get the nod in net tonight. He hasn’t been bad by any means but also hasn’t played as well as their main guy.

This is a great spot for the Oilers to break out of their two-game skid. They face a banged-up Capitals team that seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Stuart Skinner will also get the start for the Oilers tonight who’s been the better goalie by far.

 

  • Boston Bruins/ St. Louis Blues over 6.0 (-112) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.28 to win 0.25 Units

The Blues will try to end their six-game skid against arguably the best team in the NHL tonight. Boston has been a force this year going 10-2-0 and undefeated on home ice. The Bruins rank 1st in GF/G  and 4th in GA/G. St. Louis on the other hand ranks dead last in GF/G and 28th in GA/G.

You may be asking, if the Blues can’t score and Boston has a great defense, why take the over? There’s no doubt that Boston will likely contribute most of the scoring. St. Louis has been horrendous on defense and has several players out. Jordan Binnington has also been confirmed as the starter for the Blues. In his last three games, he’s allowed at least four games and has a sub .800 SV%. Linus Ullmark will start for the Bruins who’s allowed at least two goals against per game in his last three starts. So while Boston is a great defensive team, they still allow a couple of goals against per game.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Zach Hyman over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
    • He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 SOG and over 7.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Washington ranks 16th in SOG allowed per game.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

November 7th College Basketball Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Happy Opening Day of CBB! To start out the season, all plays will be 0.5u and I won’t have as many plays as I do in January-February. With that said, given the sheer volume of today’s card, I do have 4 plays for you looking to come out of the gates fast!

To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CBB(0.5u): Morehead State TT UNDER 56.5 @ Indiana–6 PM CT

There is a lot of hype around Indiana this year as Mike Woodson enters his second year at the helm of this Hoosiers program. The offense was far too inconsistent last year, and you have to account for some wiggle room on that end of the floor early in the season. However, I feel quite confident in Indiana’s defense; Woodson instantly improved Indiana to a top 25 defense in his first season, and I have them power-rated as a Top 10 defense in the country heading into the season.

Morehead State runs a slow-paced style of offense(bottom 50 in CBB) that is not going to match up well against Indiana. KenPom has the Eagles ranked 248th on that end of the floor, which gives you a barometer as to how big of a mismatch this is. I expect Indiana to come out with their hair on fire defensively and possibly hold Morehead State into the 40’s.

*CBB(0.5u): Texas State TT UNDER 59.5 @ Washington State–6:30 PM CT

I’m not a huge believer in Washington State’s offense; I have them power-rated outside of the Top 100 in the country on that end of the floor. While that dissuades me from laying double-digits with the Cougars, I have very little doubt their defense will shine in this matchup.

Texas State is an EXTREMELY slow-paced team(335th last season) that could go even slower this year. Some key losses on the offensive end of the floor drops their offense outside of the Top 200 according to KenPom. We know Terrence Johnson is not going away from his slow-paced ways; am I really expecting this group to come out and hang 60 on the road against a Top 50 defense?

*CFB(0.5u): Iowa State 1H -16 vs IUPUI–7 PM CT

As I am writing this, I am currently watching Baylor take a 38-point lead into the half against Mississippi Valley State. It’s a good reminder that, when you’re talking about the bottom 10-or-so teams in College Basketball stepping up in competition, the oddsmakers really can’t make these lines high enough.

IUPUI is an utter train wreck of a program. In fact, this is the last year of the program’s existence. This team went 3-26 a year ago and very well may be the worst team in America once again.

We’ll see if TJ Otzelberger can sustain success in Ames after an incredible Sweet 16 run in his first year, but regardless, this is an absolute dream matchup for his Cyclones.

*CFB(0.5u): UT Arlington TT UNDER 57 @ Oklahoma State–8 PM CT

Common theme with these TT Under’s: Very slow-paced teams with poor scoring ability stepping up in competition against bruising defenses.

UT Arlington ranked in the bottom quarter of America in pace last season and likely brings a bottom 50 offense in the country into Stillwater tonight. I’m actually expecting a dramatic improvement from Oklahoma State’s offense this year, but I’m just going to need to see it before I believe it when you’re talking about laying 20 points. We do know the Cowboys had a Top 5 defense in the country a year ago that should (at the very least) finish in the Top 25 this season.

UTA put up just 45 points against these Cowboys last year in the season opener; This game screams 70-50.

Podcast 76 – 22 – College Basketball 2022/2023 Coaching & Tempo Changes

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Sports Betting
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping

We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil previews the 2022/2023 College Basketball Coaching & Tempo Changes. Which teams will be playing faster?  Which teams might play slower or not even change at all?  We also have a future play that Kiev gives out.

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Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply. 

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

NBA Premiums, 11.7

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Let’s keep churning and burning in the NBA, my friends.

Wizards/Hornets under 221 (-110), to win 1/5 units
Again these Hornets totals are too high and I don’t see that changing against the slow moving, defense-oriented Washington Wizards. Bradley Beal just entered COVID protocol 2 days ago so I doubt he’ll be back. And even with Terry Rozier, who played 36 min against the Nets, the Hornets only found 94 points. This is a team searching for an identity and lost on offense without their stars. The Wizards will only make that harder. We’ll look to see where team totals are tomorrow but we’ll probably play on that, too.
Pelicans -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line may move down but I like this as a smash spot for New Orleans. Even though the Pelicans are on a tough 4 game road stretch, it doesn’t mean they’re not going to win. Zion should play in this one but I think he’s questionable. Either way, especially if Chris Duarte remains out, the Pacers aren’t in the same league as the Pelicans and I don’t think they have the personnel to stop the physical offense they’ll face.
Suns -1.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Talk about two teams not in the same class: Something is iffy with this line but I’ll gladly take it at this number. With Embiid and Harden out, the Sixers ultimately struggled to sustain offense against the Knicks and that was the difference three nights ago. Now a disciplined defensive team comes to town in the Phoenix Suns and even though this is the Suns’ first real road stretch, they’re built for consistency. Eventually the young guns in Philly will have a big game and show out without their two veteran stars but this isn’t the spot. Love the Suns.
Knicks/Timberwolves over 229 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Rudy Gobert should be out of this contest and that’s a big deal for this angle. Rudy only slows down Minnesota but without one of their bigs and already the 4th fastest team in the NFL, I think they’ll be off to the races quick Monday night. The Knicks tend to go by the pace of the other team but they’re still moving fast overall (12th on the road) and they’re a solid offensive team so far. Jalen Brunson only catalyzes this entire narrative.
Kings/Warriors over 230 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The first game between these two resulted in 255 points. Normally I’d anticipate some regression or at least consider it, but this is a chance for the Warriors to put up a classic offensive show at home against a team that doesn’t like to play defense anyway. And I love the offensive efficiency and pace I’ve seen from SAC. Another over!
Cavs -1 (-105), to win 1 unit
Eventually regression has to hit and maybe the Clippers flex and play like an actual team in a good spot at home, why is this is only 1 unit, but the Cavs are buzzing and playing with incredible confidence right now. I’m not sure if the Clippers can hang; though this line is strange.

NBA (NO) Premiums, 11.6

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Anyone else a little woozy and fucked up because of the time change? Same. Feels like it’s noon and it’s not even close.

Anywho, we keep on winning in the NBA (35-18-1, +17.43 units) and we’re not unhappy about it. A sweet 5-1 day in CFB wasn’t too shabby, either. LSU was clearly the side.
Again I absolutely despise the Sunday slate of NBA action but in case you just can’t help but spend your money and feed your addiction (that’s probably what it is if you need to bet every day, FYI – it’s okay, we’ve all been through it), here are my thoughts. Aka – not official picks:
  • Good spot for LAL, but Cleveland has been elite
  • Much better spot for Toronto, but the Bulls have impressed recently
  • The Grizzlies shouldn’t be 10 point favorites but I think they matchup really well against Washington. Probably would have been a play if it was 6 or less.
  • Clippers? No thanks. Wouldn’t be shocked if the Jazz won another upset.
We’ll be back with more NBA plays tomorrow.
Chris 

NFL Week 9 Sunday Funday Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Miami vs Chicago +4 O/U 44.5

The Bears have traded some defensive guys away and its just part of the business of rebuilding.  The Market seemed to go Miami’s way by a half point or so after the Roquan Smith news, but later in the week, it went back down and even lower to 4.  Too be honest.  I am not so sure the Lions are better than the Chicago Bears and this line closed at -3.5.  The Bears defense stinks, but this team is quietly ranked 17th in offensive EPA margin and they have a top 3 rushing offense at 5.3 yards per rush.  Miami has improved some with Tua, but I do not like how his passes are soft and flutter in the air so long.   Plus it will be pretty windy in the city, and I think that leaves a lot of room for interceptions.  The Bears have a bad front seven, but they have a pretty good secondary.  I think the Bears have the ability with Justin Fields to back door if not win outright.  Miami believe it or not, only has a .6 net yards per play advantage over the Bears.   I don’t like how Miami is on back to back road games here and I think that they Bears could cause some disruption.  Take da Bears.

Bears +4 – 2 stars

Chargers vs Falcons +3 O/U 49.5

Did you see that huge Falcons win last week?   If you think by any means that the Panthers offense is better than the Chargers, then I have a bridge to sell you.  The Falcons are a good running team and they will get Patterson back this week.  The Chargers rank 27th in opponent rush EPA giving up a league worst 5.7 rushing yards per attempt.  The Falcons defense isn’t exactly good either giving up a league worst 307 passing yards per game ranking 30th in drop-back success rate.  You also can’t ignore the JC Jackson injury for the bolts which will hurt their passing defense as well as all of the secondary injured for the Falcons.  Taking the over.

Over 49.5 – 2 stars

Teaser:  Bengals to -1 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars

NBA Premiums, 11.5

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

NBA Picks (33-17-1, 65%, +15.93U):

Kings/Magic over 225 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Magic typically play at the pace of their opponent and that means they’ll be running up and down the floor chasing after a fast-paced Kings’ squad. The Magic also play at a faster pace at home (10th overall), and the Kings, for whatever reason, play exceptionally faster on the road (3rd overall). Sacramento is considerably more talented than Orlando offensively. Like the matchup, like the pace. I have this at 233.
Hornets TT under 109.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Lately the Hornets can’t score points. In their last 5 games they’re averaging only 101.6 ppg and they’re 22nd in OFF EFF at home. For whatever reason, they’re also ranked as a bottom 10 team in pace at home. Not sure what that’s all about. There’s a chance this is a spot for regression since Brooklyn just played last night, but the Nets are playing better defense recently. I also like that neither team is great at creating second-chance opportunities. The Hornets are just too injured and this is a sleepy spot for Brooklyn who won’t look to show out with any huge offensive performances. Get in, get out, sleepy, low scoring game and the Hornets don’t get close to 110, IMO. I have this game ending 109-101.
Pelicans ML (+110), to win 1.1 units
Atlanta has a massive rest advantage but I don’t care. Zion and most of the Pelicans’ starters didn’t play anywhere close to 30 minutes last night and Atlanta is a short drive. New Orleans has a lot of momentum right now; they’re just clicking as a young, exciting team. They’re what Atlanta wants to be but I don’t think the Hawks are there yet. The Pelicans’ length and interior offense should be a problem against a Hawks’ team that can rely too much on perimeter efficiency. Give me the Pels in a short upset.
Jokic over 46.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-110), to win 1 unit
I like this as an excellent setup for Jokic at home going up against a small Spurs’ squad. We’ve seen that with Siakam and Embiid when they went up against SAS and in general, the Spurs’ just aren’t playing great defense against anyone. It’s an ideal spot for Denver at home and while the line (-10) is probably slightly too big, this is an angle we can take advantage of. PS: Prop plays won’t count towards our ATS record- we’ll keep a separate record of how often these hit.
 
Bonus Play: UFC Fight Night
Mark Madsen (+180), to win 1.8 units
This is priced wrong. Mark Madsen is an elite, silver-medal-Olympian wrestler who hasn’t shown any flaws in his takedown offense or defense. Grant Dawson is the younger, sexier play with elite wrestling ability himself, but that shouldn’t make him the favorite. I think Madsen is better on the mat and I always side with the superior wrestler in these cases. It bodes well for us!

College Football Week 10 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Texas Tech vs TCU -9.5 O/U 69.5

Seriously, what gives TCU?   You keep overperforming your outlook, and covering spreads.  What is it gonna take to end this non-sense?   I think a look ahead game to Texas might be the answer.  TCU’s offense has been incredible under coach Sonny Dykes and you have to give them a ton of credit for what they have accomplished but I am concerned for this defense that only ranks 84th in EPA per play.  Texas Tech hasn’t had a great season by any means once Tyler Shough got hurt, but their defense has held them up rankings 22nd in success rate and 39th in EPA per play.  The big thing here for me is something that we need to pay attention to.  Tyler Shough should be back from his injury this game.  He tinkered some last week with a few plays but didn’t start and the Red Raiders were all ready blown out.  I also think that the look ahead to Texas might hurt the Horned Frogs in this spot.  Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Texas Tech +9.5 – 2 stars

Alabama vs LSU +13.5 O/U 58.5

This game has become interesting over the past few weeks.  Alabama has shown some venerability vs Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M while LSU started off a bit slow and then has been rolling over the past few weeks.  Metrically, Alabama has a huge 2.11 yards per play advantage as well as top 5 in both offensive and defensive EPA, but LSU has been creeping up ranking 12th in offensive EPA and 43rd on defense.  The big question here is if this spread is justified, and I do not think that it is.  LSU is good against stopping the pass ranking 24th in opponent passing success rate and that is where Alabama gets their yards.  The Tide’s rushing offense only ranks 60th in success rate, and they have become more of a mask for the pass.  I think that the 3rd element to LSU’s offense is Jayden Daniels rushing the football.  LSU should be able to pick up some big 1st downs being that Alabama only ranks 30th in opponent rushing success rate.  This is a huge night game here in Death Valley, and both teams are coming off of the bye.  Last year, a much worse LSU team played this Alabama team close.  Take the points.

LSU +13.5 – 2.5 stars

Kyle Hunter CFB Free Play for 11/5

By
Kyle Hunter
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Boise State -8

*3 Star Free Play on Boise State* The Boise State offense has been much better since Taylen Green took over at quarterback and Dirk Koetter was hired as the offensive coordinator for the Broncos. If you only look at the last three games, this Broncos offense really has it clicking. The run game is much improved with Green as a running threat at quarterback and Jeanty beside him in the backfield.

Boise State has had a top defense all year. Their advanced metrics are top ten in the country across the board. I like the matchup with their defensive line against this offensive line of BYU.

BYU’s Jarren Hall is playing while banged up, and he is without multiple of his best weapons. The BYU offense is a shell of its former self. On defense, BYU ranks as one of the ten worst defenses in the country when looking at only the last three games. I don’t have any confidence in their ability to get stops here.

Boise State was beaten by BYU 51-17 the last time they met in Boise two years ago. I like Boise’s chances of beating BYU handily in this one. Take Boise State.

Best Weekend in Racing! The 2022 Breeders’ Cup – Saturday Racing Free Picks

By
Shawn Knoche
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Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Keeneland for the third time after its debut there in 2015 and only with a one year layoff since it’s last inception in Lexington in 2020.

I am including picks for all 12 races on the card, The Breeders’ Cup races are numbers 3-11. The weather could get a little sloppy Saturday afternoon and it will certainly be windy. So keep an eye on the track, and if you can I’d recommend waiting to see how the track shapes up with the 2 pre-races. The races get started early so tune into Gameday and the races at the same time. I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you.

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)– Purse: $150,000 – Post Time: 9:30 CDT

Lots of 2 year olds without history in this one. I landed on the 5 Encendido. Not going to have much of a wager here.

WIN: 5 Encendido

Top 4 if playing exotics: 5-6-4-1

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt) Purse: $195,000 Post Time – 10:05 CDT

I am going with the hot horse here in the 4 Silk Trade. Joseph Talamo gets the ride and has either won or put this horse in position to win in three straight trips. Right inside him is the main competition in the 3 Messier. Messier will move back significantly in length in his first run since the Kentucky Derby.

WIN: 4 Silk Trade

Top 4 if playing exotics: 4-3-6-10

Race 3  – The Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (DIRT) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 10:50 CDT

When I say a race is wide open in my opinion, Race 3 is the definition. There’s a ton of pace on both the inside here at the rail with the 1 Slammed, and on the outside with the 12 Lady Rocket and 13 Echo Zulu. Because of horses sprinting out of the gates from both ends I have to look at the closers here. The 4 Ce Ce won this race last year, but has been bested at this distance in the Grade I Balrina at a fast pace in August by both the 7 Obligatory and the 8 Goodnight Olive. I am going with the 8 Goodnight Olive who won that race.

WIN: 8 Goodnight Olive

Top 4 if playing exotics: 8-4-7-1

Race 4 The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade I – 5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: – 11:29 CDT

I said this last year in the Breeder’s Cup preview and in other Turf sprints where trainer Wesley Ward teams up with Irad Ortiz Jr. on a horse. Just bet it. Well that’s the case here with the 8 Golden Pal. That being said Ward is also entering the 4 Campanelle and the 7 Arrest Me Red. All of these horses seem to bust out of the gate and not look back. I’m on the favorite 8 Golden Pal who has won 8 of 11 starts and is 4 for 4 at Keeneland. Don’t be shocked however if Johnny V works some magic on 7 Arrest Me Red.

Win: 8 Golden Pal

Top 4 if playing exotics: 8-7-4-6

Race 5 The Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time: 12:10 CDT

Gotta love this race sponsor. The 7 Cody’s Wish is the play here. This horse hasn’t lost at this distance even though it’s had a close call in July from the 11 Three Technique. Bob Baffert has a solid entry in the 6 Laurel River who has won the last three. The best recent time outside of those comes from the 10 Senor Buscador who could post an upset attempt.

Win: 7 Cody’s Wish

Exotics: 7-10-6-3

Race 6 The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – Grade I – 1 3/16 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 12:50 CDT

Wide open race here, a lot depends on track condition. John Gosden brings the favorite over in the 3 Nashwa. I am fading that horse here due to what I think we be potentially softer course if any rain starts moving in around post-time. If it does I think the horse that could compete on either track is the 5 Tuesday. The Aiden O’Brien entry lost some steam at the end last trip out, but has bested Nashwa earlier in the year.

Win: 5 Tuesday

Exotics: 5-3-2-4

Race 7 The Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade I – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time 1:30 CDT

The 2 Kimari with Wesley Ward training on this sprint looks like a great horse on the inside, but gets a new jockey in Jose Ortiz. The big time favorite will be the 9 Jackie’s Warrior, but I can’t play those odds here. 9 Jackie’s Warrior struggled in this race last year, but bounced backed to form since then only losing to Cody’s Wish his last trip out at a longer distance. The 9 has to be in all plays on Pick 3/4s, but I think there’s a pair of value horses in the field also.  Those are the 4 American Theorem who dazzled with a 1:08.3 6F Trip at Del Mar at the end of July. 11 Flash of Mischief also showed sub 1:09 speed at this distance his last trip out and opens at 30-1. Those two horses could pull the upset and definitely make for some nice exotics.

Win: 4 American Theorem

Exotics: 4-11-9-2

Race 8 The Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 2:10 CDT

The 13 Kinross comes into this contest winner of his last 4 races. The 4 Modern Games won the Juvenile Turf last year, but only has 2 wins in 6 tries in 2022. One of those was the Woodbine Mile in the states. I worry that the 4 has made too many trips across the pond in the last 3 months however. Longshot 7 Beyond Brilliant also makes my card with a 1:32.3 mile win his last time out.

Win: 13 Kinross

Exotics: 13-4-7-14

Race 9 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $2,000,000  Post Time 2:55 CDT

The 6 Nest will be a big favorite here. Winner of her last 3 races it’s hard to pick against her. That being said I am leaning towards the 4 Clairiere who struggled out of the gate last time out,  but has the speed late to stay with Nest at the line.  She came from 11th after a poor start to finish 4th in this race last year. With Joel Rosario on board I think she pulls the upset here.

Win: 4 Clairiere

Exotics: 4-6-1-7

Pick 3: – I’ll have some in for this here for sure. Hit me up @thegreatknoche on twitter if you’re interested in how I’m playing the late Pick 3 for the remaining Breeder’s Cup Races

Race 10 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade I – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $4,000,000  Post Time: 3:40 CDT

Another wide open race for me. The horses I like best here are the 7 Nation’s Pride. This horse has two wins and a second in US races since coming over and won at this distance by margin. I think the main competition will be the 2 War Like Goddess who is the best closer in the field. If the pace doesn’t get away she could pull it off no issues at all. She’s won against the boys recently and seems to excel at this longer distance. If that happens look for the 8 Master Piece to be right there with her. For a longshot I like the 13 Highland Chief if he can find a decent trip. This horse can close as well.

Win: 2 War Like Goddess

Exotics: 2-7-8-6-13

Race 11 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I -1 1/4 Miles (Dirt)  Purse $6,000,000 – Post Time 4:40 CDT

Six Million in the Purse. Yowza. Well everyone and their Uncle is on the 4 Flightline, opening at 3-5 as a favorite. Can’t really blame them with his speed figure of 128 when winning the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in September. Flightline is a perfect 5-0 lifetime in finding the Winner’s Circle. However, I think there’s some decent competition in 2 Life is Good who posted a 125 at the Whitney Stakes in August and has won 6 of his last 7 races and 9 of 11 overall.  Both these horses like clean air, the lead and going wire to wire. With Life is Good inside of Flightline I think he takes the lead early. Flightline while posting great marks hasn’t faced this level of competition. Another solid factoid that I trust is that Life is Good‘s Sire Mischief produced the 2020 winner of this race at this distance in Authentic. Can any other horses make some noise? Sure this is the best of the best. Kentucky Derby runner up 6 Epicenter and the 7 Olympiad would be my next two choices. Also with the right trip the 1 Taiba has shown great improvement since the Derby.

Win: 2 Life Is Good

Exotics: 2-4-6-7

Race 12 The Fall Harvest Stakes Presented By Mint Hall Gaming– -1 Mile (Turf)  Purse $350,000 – Post Time 5:20 CDT

We finish up with this one. The cool down race on the turf. Let’s be honest, unless you’re holding a late multi-race bet…. My picks below.

Win: 1 Stolen Holiday

Exotics: 1-4-5-7

 

 

 

 

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