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College Football 2022 Bowls December 19th – 23rd – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Monday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn vs. Marshall -12.5 O/U 40.5 

Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Brooks Stadium — Conway, S.C.

  • UConn:  Motivation – High – They finally got to a bowl but it’s fun to party in Myrtle Beach.
  • Marshall: Motivation – Medium Low – Bad opponent and might go out the night before.
  • Home Field – None
  • Charles Huff, Marshall – 0-1 ATS in Bowl Games.
  • Jim Mora Jr, UCONN – 2-2 ATS in Bowl Games
  • Marshall has a .87 yards per play advantage over the Huskies.
  • UCONN had a nice finish to their season winning 5 of their last 7 games including Boston College and Liberty.
  • Marshall’s defense ranks 2nd in success rate and number 1 in defensive EPA per play.
  • I have Marshall -11 so no play but a slight lean to UCONN.

Tuesday, Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan +4 O/U 54

Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Albertsons Stadium — Boise, Idaho

  • San Jose State:  Motivation – Low – They go to Boise all the time and probably was robbed or at least assaulted while they were there.
  • Eastern Michigan:  Medium Low – These kids got totally screwed.  Now they might drink to just block out the fact that they are in Boise Idaho.  (Kip)
  • Home Field:  None
  • Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan – 3-1 ATS in bowl games.
  • Brent Brennan, San Jose State – 0-1 ATS in bowl games.
  • I give San Jose credit for getting to a bowl game this year, but some of their wins are credit to the +12 turnovers ranking 5th in the nation in turnover ratio.
  • San Jose State has a +.82 yards per play advantage, but I would argue that the Eagles had the better finish to their season winning four of their last 5 games to San Jose State losing two out of their last three.
  • I have San Jose State -2 here so I think a small play on Eastern Michigan is warrented.
  • I played Eastern Michigan at +4.5 but I still like it over the 3.

Eastern Michigan +4 – 1.5 stars

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty +5 O/U 54

Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, Fla.

  • Toledo:  Motivation – Medium Low – They won the Mac and now it’s time to party.
  • Liberty: Motivation – Medium – This team lost their coach but they at least do get a very good one coming in.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Jason Candle, Toledo – 1-4 ATS in bowl games which is pretty bad.
  • Liberty lost Hugh Freeze to Auburn, but they know that they can look forward to Jamey Chadwell.
  • SOS is pretty equal at 128 for Toledo and 121 for Liberty.
  • Toledo has a .27 net yards per play advantage.
  • Toledo is a sloppy team ranking 116th in turnover ratio at -8 to Liberty at -3.
  • Both defenses are pretty solid here ranking top 10 in success rate and top 21 in EPA.
  • Barring any setbacks, I  could see this going under, but I also like Liberty some and I have this game a Pickem.

Under 54 points – 2 stars and Liberty +5 – 1 stars

Wednesday, Dec. 21

New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky +4.5 O/U 56

Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.

  • South Alabama:  Motivation – High – They haven’t went bowling in a while.
  • Western Kentucky:  Motivation – Medium – Decent matchup on a disappointing season.
  • Home Field:  South Alabama some at 260 miles way.
  • Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky – 1-1-1 ATS in bowl games.
  • SOS pretty close with South Alabama at 129th and Western Kentucky at 11th.
  • Western Kentucky has a .34 net yards per play advantage here, but the best unit on the field is South Alabama’s defense ranking 16th in success rate and 12th in defensive EPA par play.
  • My power ratings align with the market here, but I am honestly not sure why?  South Alabama has looked great this year while Western Kentucky has disappointed.
  • The Sun belt is better than Conference USA and Western Kentucky’s quarterback has been wishy washy with this bowl game.

South Alabama -4.5 – 2 stars

Thursday, Dec. 22

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor -4.5 O/U 50

Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, Texas

  • Air Force: Motivation – High – Get to play a power 5.
  • Baylor:  Motivation – Medium – Good coach in Aranda.
  • Home Field:  Baylor is only 108 miles away!
  • Troy Calhoun, Air Force – 7-4
  • Dave Aranda, Baylor – 1-0
  • There is a massive strength of schedule discrepancy here with Baylor at 15th and Air force at 116th.
  • Baylor has a .34 net yards per play advantage over Air Force.
  • I like how Baylor has three weeks to prepare for the option attack.
  • I have Baylor -7.75

Baylor -4.5 – 2 stars

Friday, Dec. 23

Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri vs. Wake Forest -1 O/U 60.5

Start Time: TBD

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.

  • Wake Forest:  Motivation – Medium – They probably wanted bigger and better things but at least they go on vacation.
  • Missouri: Motivation – Medium High – This team accomplished a lot this year compared to others.
  • Home Field:  None
  • Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
  • Dave Clawson, Wake Forest – 3-5 ATS in bowl games.
  • Missouri will be without their best WR in Dominic Lovett who had over twice the yards than the second best in the team.
  • This is basically Wake’s offense ranking 26th in success rate against Missouri’s defense ranking 20th in success rate.   Missouri though does give up a lot of explosive plays ranking 126th in the nation.
  • Missouri had the harder strength of schedule here ranking 29th to Wake Forest at 59th.
  • Missouri has a .15 net yard per play advantage.
  • Small lean to Wake Forest.

Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana +6.5 O/U 58

Start Time: TBD

TV Channel: ESPN

Location: Independence Stadium — Shreveport, La.

  • Houston: Motivation – Medium – Not the season that they hoped for.
  • Louisiana:  Motivation – Medium High – They step up slightly in class.
  • Home Field:  None – Same distance for both schools around 250 miles away.
  • Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
  • Dana Holgorsen, Houston – 2-7 ATS in bowl games.
  • Louisiana
    • QB Ben Wooldridge (Injury)
    • RB Terrence Williams (Injury)
    • WR Michael Jefferson (Opt-out)
  • Ben Wooldridge was knocked out with two games left and Michael Jefferson is Louisiana’s best WR.
  • Looks like Houston QB Clayton Tune will play in the game which is huge.
  • Louisiana has been Jeckyl and Hyde this year losing to Louisiana Monroe and beating Marshall and Georgia Southern.
  • This game is Clayton Tune’s last opportunity to impress and go out with a bang.
  • Houston has a .66 net yards per play advantage.
  • Houston has had the harder SOS ranking 68th to Louisiana ranking 102.
  • I have Houston -10 with the injury and opt outs, but I really find it hard to trust Dana Holgorsen in bowl games so I’ll make my play small.

Houston -7 – 1.5 stars

NBA Premiums, 12.18

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

This is the time of year that you can play on some Sunday NBA games, as teams need to start taking their seasons more seriously. January and beyond will be even more predictable and I can’t fookin wait.

We only seem to lose by BS lately. The Cavs faced Dallas without Luka and still couldn’t cover -4? The line moved to -8.5! The Wizards led against the Clippers for nearly the ENTIRE contest, and then they don’t cover +6.5? Unreal.
Anywho, onto more NBA and l expect the ball to bounce our way more today:
Pacers win (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is telling us to bet on Indiana. The Knicks have won 5 straight road games and finally get to head back home for a big game Tuesday night against Golden State. They’re probably exhausted, while the Pacers were able to get home before the weekend started and prepare for a big win. Sometimes you just have to follow the sportsbooks’ clues and this feels like one of those situations.
Nets/Pistons under 230 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is dropping for good reason. This is an uninteresting game for Brooklyn but they’ve been playing great basketball and, again, a lot of that is because of some stellar defensive effort lately. If they care, they should incredibly limit Detroit. If they don’t care, they won’t push the pace or be as efficient on offense. Either way, I like an under here. Detroit is due for negative regression of offense, too. I have it at 223.
Hornets/Nuggets 1H O120.5 (-112), to win 2 units
I’ll avoid the full game in case it’s a blowout and the score slows down, as we tend to see in many of these contests, but I don’t see how this isn’t a hyper-paced, super high-scoring affair. Denver is all about offense and Charlotte, even after their coach put them on blast, STILL showed how little they care about playing defense. Both fast paced teams and with LaMelo back, the Hornets run much faster.

NBA Premiums, 12.17 and UFC

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Well a 4-5 night wasn’t that awesome Friday but we were on some good sides. I don’t feel as annoyed by it as I usually am. I feel a better handle and rhythm for our betting future in the NBA and let’s keep riding it. More UFC below, too!

NBA:

Wizards +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I think Washington can be feisty today. Even if Beal doesn’t play, and I think he will, the Clippers had a hard time fending off Porzingis and Kuzma and other Washington scorers in their previous contest a week ago. Powell and Zubac are OUT for the Clippers– that’s a good thing for WAS, and Paul George might sit out this one, too. Kawhi isn’t quite comfortable enough to take on the full scoring load for his squad just yet. Washington keeps it close either way.
Cavs -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I just think the Cavs are a really bad matchup for Dallas. And now the Mavericks are without Kleber, which is low-key a huge miss for them since he plays such a key role in spacing on their offense and defense. The bigs of Cleveland are too much for Dallas and D. Mitchell is playing at a very high level with his supporting cast.
Pels/Suns over 228 (-110), to win 1 unit
These two offenses just match up really well against each other, and lately the Suns’ defense has been absolute garbage. New Orleans wants to beat the shit out of Phoenix every time and the Suns are seeking revenge after that controversial Zion dunk to finish the Pels’ last win. Animosity, fast pace, explosive scoring on both sides – if this was a playoff game I’d consider an under but, it’s not. The high totals continue in this series – I have it at 235.
UFC:
 
Cannnonier (-115), to win 1 unit
Both Strickland and Cannonier are seasoned tough guys and deservingly this is a very evenly matched battle. Strickland’s style is just a little too passive for me and Cannonier represents more explosive KO ability, the kind that’s caught Strickland before. Lately Jared’s only losses are to the most elite (aka Adesanya) but he’s more ready and more dangerous than Strickland, from my perspective.
Ismagulov (+160), to win 1.6 units
Ismagulov is a very smart fighter who picks apart his opponents and wins via decision over and over again. He’s only lost 1 bout because of that style and I think he out-classes Tsarukyan in this one, too.

NFL Week 15 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

NY Giants vs Washington -5 O/U 40

This is a weird back to back game for Washington being that they just had a bye week right after playing this Giants team.  Either way, what the heck is Washington doing here laying more than three points to a divisional opponent like the Giants?  Are the G-men overrated?   Yes,  but that doesn’t mean the Commies are a good football team either…  Over the last eight head to head matchups, the Giants are 6-2 ATS against this team.  The recent game that these two teams just played back on December 4th ending in a tie, and the Box score doesn’t tell me that it should have been all that different.  Looking at the metrics, the Giants are a net -.6 yards per play to Washington’s -.5.  The Giants rank 13th in offensive EPA to the Giants at 26th.  The Commander’s defense is certainly better ranking 7th in EPA to the Giants at 29th, but the Commies came off of that Giants game a bit banged up themselves, and I am not sure an extra week might be enough to get a couple of key guys back on defense such as DE Chase Young with a knee issue, DE Efe Obada with a finger, and Benjamin St Juste with an ankle injury as well.  The biggest loss for the Commanders is their center, and the leader of their offensive line in Tyler Larson hat just happened last game.  It will take a while to adjust.  Both of these teams are in the playoff hunt at 7-5-1 and both will be motivated to win this game.

Giants +5 – 3 stars

Indianapolis vs Minnesota -3.5 O/U 47.5

I guess it’s another fade the bye week situation here, but it isn’t hard to see that the Colts are pretty much out of playoff contention while the Vikings are fighting for 1st place and the bye.  After the Colts beat the Raiders following the firing of Frank Reich, everyone jumped on Jeff Saturday’s nuts thinking that he can actually fix this team.  The problem is that Saturday has the cards deeply stacked against him, and he doesn’t have a real offensive coordinator to help guide him.  Indy’s in-eptness started to show over the last few weeks losing at home to a bad Pittsburgh team and then getting blown out by the Eagles.  If you want a chance to compete with the Vikings, you have to be able to put up some points.  The Colts rank 31st in offensive EPA and 28th in passing yards per attempt.  Their offensive line is garbage, and they can’t seem to even run the ball with the best back in the whole league.  Michelangelo di Lodovico Buonarroti Simoni’s statue of Matt Ryan is quite immobile in the pocket.  His career is pretty much toast here and I can see some quit in this team.  As bad as the Vikings have shown on defense, they at least rank number 15th in defensive EPA per play while only allowing 4.1 yards per rush.  I think the Queens put the Ponies in a quitting situation in the second half.  Take Minnesota.  You like that?

Vikings -3.5 – 2 stars

Teaser:   Ravens to +9 with the Packers to -1 – 2 stars

 

College Football Week 15 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of 12/14/22

Sharp Money On:

  • Troy at PK to -2 vs UTSA – 70% tickets and 93% of the money.
  • Fresno State +4.5 to -3.5 vs Washington State – 68% tickets and 79% of the money.
  • BYU -1 to +3.5 vs SMU – 47% tickets and 89% of the money.
  • Air Force +7 to +5.5 vs Baylor – 61% tickets and 98% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Cincinnati vs Louisville under 44.5 to 39.5 – 71% tickets and 93% of the money.
  • Washington State vs Fresno State under 57.5 to 52 – 60% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • North Texas vs Boise State over 54 to 59.5 – 53% tickets and 76% of the money.

DFS Week 15 – Insert Some Bolts Of Energy Into Your Lineup For Moore Wins

By
Shawn Knoche
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We are back with our new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.

Our record this season is now 7-4 in the high participant Double-Ups. I apologize I’ve had to take a break for the last few weeks. I’ve been busy with some personal stuff and baseball rankings for 2023. There’s only so many hours in a day. We’re all caught up on that stuff so let’s get a nice DFS Double-up this NFL Sunday.

I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.

Justin Herbert, QB: $7,200. The Chargers skill position players are finally getting healthy. The line is blocking better, and if the Chargers want to make a playoff run they have to keep getting wins. The best way for the Bolts to do that is to throw the ball. They’ve won 2 of the last 3 and Herbert has attempted 47 or more passes in all 3 of those games. He gets the Titans this week who over the last 6 games are allowing 329 YPG passing to opposing QBs.

Derrick Henry, RB: $8,000. Derrick Henry had one problem last week against the Jags. Holding onto the football. While the Titans were still in the game he racked up most of his 155 yards and 2 scores. He should roll again on the fast track in LA against the team allowing a league worst 5.52 yards per attempt to opposing QBs.

Isiah Pacheco, RB: $5,400. Jerick McKinnon was the big scoring back last week for the Chiefs, but Pacheco continues to be the main option on first and second down. If the Chiefs get up early on the Texans which they should, look for him to carry the rock a bunch in the second half. The Texans are last in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.

Keenan Allen, WR: $6,800. Allen’s salary has been creeping up every week since his return, but it is still too low here. He has 14 targets each of the last two weeks and the Chargers, as stated above look committed to throwing their way to victory. While Williams is certainly the better red zone option I prefer Allen if you can’t stack both.

Mike Williams, WR: $6,300. But we can stack both. The game last week was the first game all season that Williams and Allen have finished together without one getting injured in the game or already watching from the sidelines. Combined they had 20 targets, 18 catches 208 yards a touchdown. Look for big things this week as well.

Chris Moore, WR: $4,200. Moore thrived without Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks last week against the Cowboys. He caught 10 balls on 11 targets for 124 yards. With Cooks and Collins out again this Sunday he will be the top option once again. The Texans will likely be playing from behind and he should benefit from plenty of garbage time action.

Garrett Wilson, WR: $6,000. He’s been getting open and seeing targets with Mike White under center. Did Zach Wilson learn anything while riding the bench the last few week? I’m guessing he learned to get rid of the ball quickly to Wilson. The Lions have allowed the 3rd most DFS points to opposing receivers so hopefully that continues even with Wilson getting the snaps. Wilson to Wilson for the win.

Cade Otton, TE: $2,900. Otton has returned to his roll as Tom Brady’s safety blanket garnering 10 catches for 56 yards and a score over the last two weeks. The Bengals are middle of the pack against opposing tight ends, but did struggle last week with David Njoku. I think Brady will look to Otton often this week again.

Broncos, DST: $2,700. The Broncos defense kept them in the game in the 2nd half against KC. They have 5 picks and 6 sacks their last two games and will face Colt Mccoy who spent the majority of Monday night on his back.

NHL Preview & Picks – December 16th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
-

We only have three games taking place across the NHL tonight. I break down all of the games and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Game Previews:

Chicago Blackhawks @ Minnesota Wild

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Chicago Blackhawks: 7-16-4, 8th Central (3-7-2 Away)
  • Minnesota Wild: 16-11-2, 3rd Central (9-6-1 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Chicago Blackhawks +310 +330 +1.5 (+125) o6.0 (-110)
Minnesota Wild -380 -410 -1.5 (-145) u6.0 (-110)

 

These teams have already faced off once before this season with the Wild defeating the Blackhawks 4-3 in a shootout. In that matchup, the Blackhawks were also coming off a game on the previous night as well.

The Blackhawks have now lost thirteen of their last fourteen games including their last five. Their most recent loss was last night when they faced the Golden Knights. They rank near the bottom of every category and haven’t shown any signs of life. Chicago has also yet to win a Division game going 0-6-1.

The Minnesota Wild have turned things around after a rough start winning their last three games. They’ve outscored opponents 7-2 during that span. Their goaltending has been great recently which had been an issue earlier in the season. Historically, Minnesota has dominated Chicago winning their last six games against them.

CHI: P. Mrazek (2-6-1), 4.37 GAA, .873 SV%

MIN: M. Fluery (10-7-1), 3.05 GAA, .895 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

 

St. Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • St. Louis Blues: 13-15-1, 6th Central (7-8-0 Away)
  • Calgary Flames: 13-11-6, 5th Pacific (10-5-2 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
St. Louis Blues +170 +190 +1.5 (-145) o6.0 (+105)
Calgary Flames -200 -225 -1.5 (+125) u6.0 (-125)

 

The Blues began a five-game road trip last night with a comeback win against the Oilers. Despite that, they’ve been struggling as of late losing six of their last nine games. However, St. Louis has historically done well against Calgary winning six of their last seven matchups.

Just like the Blues, the Flames are in a slump themselves losing their last four games. The good news for them is that they’ve been great at home going 6-2 in their last 8 games and 10-5-2 overall.

STL: T. Greiss (3-4-0), 3.69 GAA, .889 SV%

MIN: J. Markstrom (8-7-4), 2.82 GAA, .897 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

New York Islanders @ Arizona Coyotes

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • New York Islanders: 17-12-1, 4th Metropolitan (8-6-1 Away)
  • Arizona Coyotes: 9-14-4, 7th Central (3-2-1 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New York Islanders -180 -180 -1.5 (+140) o5.5 (-120)
Arizona Coyotes +155 +155 +1.5 (-165) u5.5 (+100)

 

These teams have already faced off once before this season with the Coyotes defeating the Islanders 2-0 back in November.

The Islanders have lost their last two games but faced some pretty tough opponents in Boston and Carolina. They’ve been solid defensively but have struggled with offensive production.

The Coyotes will play their sixth home game of the year tonight. In their first five home games, they have a decent record going 3-2-1. Arizona has been on a bit of a hot streak winning two of their last three games.

NYI: I. Sorokin (10-9-0), 2.36 GAA, .925 SV%

ARI: K. Vejmelka (5-4-2), 3.07 GAA, .913 SV% [CONFIRMED]

 

Picks(s):

  • NYI/ ARI Race to 4 Goals – Neither (+125) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.31 Units

I’ll have the writeup for this posted on the Twitter later (@GatorBetting).

 

Player Prop(s):

  • Anders Lee over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-137) – BetRivers
    • He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and 6.0 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Coyotes also rank 30th in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
  • Mats Zuccarello over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-118) – BetRivers
    • He’s gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.4 SOG and 5.4 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blackhawks rank 30th in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 8th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.
  • Patrick Kane over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – BetRivers
    • He’s gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.8 SOG and 7.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Wild rank 8th in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Adding 2 Plays: NBA, 12.16

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hornets -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hornets win + under 237 parlay, 0.5 units to win 1.18 units
Hornets coach Steve Clifford sounded off in his press conference following Charlotte’s recent OT defeat at the hands of the Pistons, saying “NO ONE is playing defense right now, there’s not ONE bright spot.” Usually anticipating regression is really hard to do for any NBA team, but this is a great spot for the Hornets to practice better defense. The Hawks are a disparate mess right now and tonight is the last leg of their little road trip. Charlotte’s been at home and this is their final leg before they hit the road– ATL is more likely to give up, as we’ve seen from them, while the Hornets can snag a win and gain some confidence with LaMelo back before they leave the comforts of home. Charlotte saw an explosion of offense in their last contest, but I expect much better results from their defense tonight. Over their last 6 games, of which they only won 5, the Hawks are LAST in the NBA in offensive rating. Their most important components on defense: Collins, Murray, and now Capela will ALL be out today. Charlotte should be able to get ahead fast at home and if they play better defense, this shouldn’t even be close. This will be the Hawks 5th game in 7 days and it feels like Nate McMillan is losing his team. Go Hornets!
 
Kings 1Q -1.5 (-112 at FD), to win 1.5 units
Kings -5.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Sacramento Kings finally found their rhythm again in an impressive showing in Toronto two nights ago. I think they take that momentum into this game. The Pistons got a fortunate OT win against the Hawks but that had to tire out their most important players (Isaiah Stewart played 41 min, for example), but the Kings played Sabonis and Fox for 40 minutes in their recent game too, so maybe that’s not too much of an edge, but Detroit completely exhausted its bench, too. The Pistons are back home after a lot of road games the past week, which is never an ideal spot for a tired team, whereas the Kings will get off all weekend at home if they can come out the victor. And let’s face it, the Pistons are nowhere near the outfit that Sacramento is this year. The Kings have moved from one of the NBA’s worst defenses last year to a mid-tier unit and it’s been consistent. That’s huge, considering how explosive their offense can be. The Kings are too much for Detroit tonight, and I think they step up at the margins (1st QTR and end of game) as the better team and cover.
Magic 1H +7.5 (-102), to win 0.5 units
A low-level play but the Magic should be getting more respect right now. They can be really feisty and they’re playing cohesive basketball, while Boston will need to reintegrate Robert Williams III early in this contest, who’s returning for his first game back. I like Orlando to keep it competitive early.
Warriors TT under 107.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
It’s always tough betting against the Warriors high-octane offense but obviously it has a few wrinkles these days. The Warriors will be without Steph Curry for a few weeks and they could continue to be without Wiggins. He practiced yesterday but TBD if Kerr wants to throw him to the wolves tonight. Philly has been playing sensational defense and it’s been a point of emphasis for them to limit opponent’s fast-break opportunities. I love that it’s their focus heading into this week, because this is a game where Jordan Poole will push the pace and try to upend Philly’s slow pace, methodical style. I think Philly wins that battle. With Embiid back, their defense is even better and in their first game without Curry on the road, I think Golden State could look real clunky. Give me their under for a humble 1 unit.
Nets at Raptors under 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nic Claxton over 19.5 PAR (-120), to win 1 unit
Let’s not overthink this. The Nets are quietly on an 8-2 tear right now and a lot of that is because of how they’re playing defense. Claxton, O’Neal and Ben Simmons have been really important in that regard. The Raptors just allowed a melee of scoring from Sacramento, especially in the 2nd half, and that recency bias/feeling will give Toronto more incentive to limit the Nets at home in a correction spot. Two slow paced teams, I have this at 219, and none of their only 3 games have come close to eclipsing 226. Under. Taking a Claxton prop because of his length and perennial importance to the team.
Lakers win 1H (-102), to win 1 unit
The Nuggets are coming off a huge Jokic performance and offensive showcase but the Lakers match up well against the joker and his supporting cast. The Lakers also keep covering, and it’ll be a pride-battle for AD to prove that he can hang with the Nuggets’ big man early. Jokic usually sits for the majority of the 2nd QTR and he might need to after the run they’ve been on. Like the Lake-show early at home.

December 16th CBB Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

A 2-1 Wednesday brings me to 22-18-1 on the CBB season! We have another short slate to work with tonight, but I am rolling with 1 play looking to start the weekend off strong!

ICYMI: I released 3 CFB Best Bets for Saturday’s CFB Bowl action.

*CBB(0.5u): Dartmouth TT UNDER 60.5 @ South Florida–6 PM CT

I have Dartmouth’s offense power rated significantly lower than their 71 PPG would indicate they should be. They’ve played one of the 30 easiest schedules in the country; while South Florida is not a tournament team, this is surely the Big Green’s toughest matchup of the season. I have zero interest in backing USF’s offense, but I do view them as a feisty unit defensively. Specifically, they will hold a major edge on the boards; Dartmouth ranks 324th in offensive rebounding %. As indicated by their #354 “Luck” rating on KenPom, USF has allowed many inferior offenses to have season-best days from 3-point land, and even then many of those teams barely eclipsed 60. I’m going to play against the fact that this is sustainable, especially considering Dartmouth is poor in virtually every offensive category.

South Florida ranks in the bottom quarter of the country in pace and will not extend this game unnecessarily. This Dartmouth TT should not start with a 6.

NBA Premiums, 12.16 (in Full)

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hornets -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hornets win + under 237 parlay, 0.5 units to win 1.18 units
Hornets coach Steve Clifford sounded off in his press conference following Charlotte’s recent OT defeat at the hands of the Pistons, saying “NO ONE is playing defense right now, there’s not ONE bright spot.” Usually anticipating regression is really hard to do for any NBA team, but this is a great spot for the Hornets to practice better defense. The Hawks are a disparate mess right now and tonight is the last leg of their little road trip. Charlotte’s been at home and this is their final leg before they hit the road– ATL is more likely to give up, as we’ve seen from them, while the Hornets can snag a win and gain some confidence with LaMelo back before they leave the comforts of home. Charlotte saw an explosion of offense in their last contest, but I expect much better results from their defense tonight. Over their last 6 games, of which they only won 5, the Hawks are LAST in the NBA in offensive rating. Their most important components on defense: Collins, Murray, and now Capela will ALL be out today. Charlotte should be able to get ahead fast at home and if they play better defense, this shouldn’t even be close. This will be the Hawks 5th game in 7 days and it feels like Nate McMillan is losing his team. Go Hornets!
 
Kings 1Q -1.5 (-112 at FD), to win 1.5 units
Kings -5.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Sacramento Kings finally found their rhythm again in an impressive showing in Toronto two nights ago. I think they take that momentum into this game. The Pistons got a fortunate OT win against the Hawks but that had to tire out their most important players (Isaiah Stewart played 41 min, for example), but the Kings played Sabonis and Fox for 40 minutes in their recent game too, so maybe that’s not too much of an edge, but Detroit completely exhausted its bench, too. The Pistons are back home after a lot of road games the past week, which is never an ideal spot for a tired team, whereas the Kings will get off all weekend at home if they can come out the victor. And let’s face it, the Pistons are nowhere near the outfit that Sacramento is this year. The Kings have moved from one of the NBA’s worst defenses last year to a mid-tier unit and it’s been consistent. That’s huge, considering how explosive their offense can be. The Kings are too much for Detroit tonight, and I think they step up at the margins (1st QTR and end of game) as the better team and cover.
Warriors TT under 107.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
It’s always tough betting against the Warriors high-octane offense but obviously it has a few wrinkles these days. The Warriors will be without Steph Curry for a few weeks and they could continue to be without Wiggins. He practiced yesterday but TBD if Kerr wants to throw him to the wolves tonight. Philly has been playing sensational defense and it’s been a point of emphasis for them to limit opponent’s fast-break opportunities. I love that it’s their focus heading into this week, because this is a game where Jordan Poole will push the pace and try to upend Philly’s slow pace, methodical style. I think Philly wins that battle. With Embiid back, their defense is even better and in their first game without Curry on the road, I think Golden State could look real clunky. Give me their under for a humble 1 unit.
Nets at Raptors under 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nic Claxton over 19.5 PAR (-120), to win 1 unit
Let’s not overthink this. The Nets are quietly on an 8-2 tear right now and a lot of that is because of how they’re playing defense. Claxton, O’Neal and Ben Simmons have been really important in that regard. The Raptors just allowed a melee of scoring from Sacramento, especially in the 2nd half, and that recency bias/feeling will give Toronto more incentive to limit the Nets at home in a correction spot. Two slow paced teams, I have this at 219, and none of their only 3 games have come close to eclipsing 226. Under. Taking a Claxton prop because his length and
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