Eyyyy! We got a 5-1, +5.5 unit night Thursday. More of that, please! Like a few things on today’s slate, let’s keep it going for God’s sake!
More incoming, but getting this first email out so you can put in plays:
Hornets -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hornets win + under 237 parlay, 0.5 units to win 1.18 units
Hornets coach Steve Clifford sounded off in his press conference following Charlotte’s recent OT defeat at the hands of the Pistons, saying “NO ONE is playing defense right now, there’s not ONE bright spot.” Usually anticipating regression is really hard to do for any NBA team, but this is a great spot for the Hornets to practice better defense. The Hawks are a disparate mess right now and tonight is the last leg of their little road trip. Charlotte’s been at home and this is their final leg before they hit the road– ATL is more likely to give up, as we’ve seen from them, while the Hornets can snag a win and gain some confidence with LaMelo back before they leave the comforts of home. Charlotte saw an explosion of offense in their last contest, but I expect much better results from their defense tonight. Over their last 6 games, of which they only won 5, the Hawks are LAST in the NBA in offensive rating. Their most important components on defense: Collins, Murray, and now Capela will ALL be out today. Charlotte should be able to get ahead fast at home and if they play better defense, this shouldn’t even be close. This will be the Hawks 5th game in 7 days and it feels like Nate McMillan is losing his team. Go Hornets!
Kings 1Q -1.5 (-112 at FD), to win 1.5 units
Kings -5.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Sacramento Kings finally found their rhythm again in an impressive showing in Toronto two nights ago. I think they take that momentum into this game. The Pistons got a fortunate OT win against the Hawks but that had to tire out their most important players (Isaiah Stewart played 41 min, for example), but the Kings played Sabonis and Fox for 40 minutes in their recent game too, so maybe that’s not too much of an edge, but Detroit completely exhausted its bench, too. The Pistons are back home after a lot of road games the past week, which is never an ideal spot for a tired team, whereas the Kings will get off all weekend at home if they can come out the victor. And let’s face it, the Pistons are nowhere near the outfit that Sacramento is this year. The Kings have moved from one of the NBA’s worst defenses last year to a mid-tier unit and it’s been consistent. That’s huge, considering how explosive their offense can be. The Kings are too much for Detroit tonight, and I think they step up at the margins (1st QTR and end of game) as the better team and cover.
I’ll offer leans and more smaller plays, as well as props, to get us back in the black.
I’m also going to start looking at CBB. I’m not too proud to just scrap the NBA some days/weeks if this nonsense continues.
Pelicans/Jazz over 231 (-110), to win 2 units
These two teams just match up too well offensively. Interior ability of the Pels + the constancy of Utah’s healthy guards means more perimeter success. And a fast pace always in Utah.
Bucks/Grizzlies over 227 (-110), to win 2 units
Grizzlies -2.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Grizzlies are in hyper-speed at home, Bucks don’t play the same defense on the road, nor do they usually establish the pace. Memphis will do that and attack the rim nonstop, as they always do. Giannis is too physically imposing for Jaren Jackson and the Grizzlies, too. Offensive advantages on both ends. No Jrue Holiday (defensive star), too.
We’ll follow the line movement here. I already leaned Memphis and if I think they’ll control the pace, that means they’ll probably win it, too.
Steven Adams over 9.5 rebounds (+100), to win 1 unit
Adams usually wins the battle against Brook Lopez. He’s just a tad more athletic and versatile, and he’s the more physical player. Lopez has played really well this year, but at home, where Memphis likes to run with pace, I think he’ll have plenty to take care of at the rim. Adams has won the rebound battle in 10 out of 14 games between Lopez and he’s averaging over 10 per game this season.
CJ McCollum over 28.5 PAR (-115), to win 0.75 units
Zion over 40.5 PAR (-115), to win 0.75 units
Both of these guys had one of their most putrid games of the season against Utah 2 days ago. Now they get a rematch, and talented/smart players usually respond. The Pelicans have been riding high and much of that is because of the leadership and dominance from these two starters. I expect them to both go off tonight.
Leans:
Rockets +3.5 and over 219.5
Suns/Clippers under 217.5 (waiting on LAC injury report)
I’ll offer leans and more smaller plays, as well as props, to get us back in the black.
I’m also going to start looking at CBB. I’m not too proud to just scrap the NBA some days/weeks if this nonsense continues.
Pelicans/Jazz over 231 (-110), to win 2 units
These two teams just match up too well offensively. Interior ability of the Pels + the constancy of Utah’s healthy guards means more perimeter success. And a fast pace always in Utah.
Bucks/Grizzlies over 227 (-110), to win 2 units
Grizzlies are in hyper-speed at home, Bucks don’t play the same defense on the road, nor do they usually establish the pace. Memphis will do that and attack the rim nonstop, as they always do. Giannis is too physically imposing for Jaren Jackson and the Grizzlies, too. Offensive advantages on both ends. No Jrue Holiday (defensive star), too.
Steven Adams over 9.5 rebounds (+100), to win 1 unit
Adams usually wins the battle against Brook Lopez. He’s just a tad more athletic and versatile, and he’s the more physical player. Lopez has played really well this year, but at home, where Memphis likes to run with pace, I think he’ll have plenty to take care of at the rim. Adams has won the rebound battle in 10 out of 14 games between Lopez and he’s averaging over 10 per game this season.
CJ McCollum over 28.5 PAR (-115), to win 0.75 units
Zion over 40.5 PAR (-115), to win 0.75 units
Both of these guys had one of their most putrid games of the season against Utah 2 days ago. Now they get a rematch, and talented/smart players usually respond. The Pelicans have been riding high and much of that is because of the leadership and dominance from these two starters. I expect them to both go off tonight.
Leans:
Rockets +3.5 and over 219.5
Suns/Clippers under 217.5 (waiting on LAC injury report)
Time Captioned Below: We have a HUGE show for you today! Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from Brad Powers Sports comes on to break down college bowl games from December 16th – December 23rd as well as the College Football Playoffs! First, Kiev talks about coach Mike Leach and what he meant to college football. Next, he gets into the FULL SLATE of NFL week 15 games with some FREE PLAYS as well as his refuse to lose teaser that is 8-5-1 so far for the year. Then, Brad comes on to talk about 2022 College Football bowl season! The guys get into some questions in how to handicap these bowls as well as the timing of your plays. Kiev and Brad go through all the bowl games before Christmas eve as well as the college football playoffs! Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
0 – 7:30 Intro and Mike Leach
7:31 – 45:35 – NFL info, Plays and leans
45:36 – 2:02:10 – Brad Powers and College Football Bowls
2:02:11 – 2:04:40 – Sharp Money Movement
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I’m personally very fascinated by what’s happening right now. I literally can’t pick the right side. But while my bankroll and record crumbles, you people don’t have to be my sounding board. Onto another day. Take the opposite sides if you want – no one’s forcing your hand here.
Pelicans/Jazz over 231 (-110), to win 2 units
These two teams just match up too well offensively. Interior ability of the Pels + the constancy of Utah’s healthy guards means more perimeter success. And a fast pace always in Utah.
Bucks/Grizzlies over anything at 233 or under, to win 2 units
Grizzlies are in hyper-speed at home, Bucks don’t play the same defense on the road, nor do they usually establish the pace. Memphis will do that and attack the rim nonstop, as they always do. Giannis is too physically imposing for Jaren Jackson and the Grizzlies, too. Offensive advantages on both ends. No Jrue Holiday (defensive star), too.
The betting line is telling us to take Buffalo. I think it’s way too many points, but I can’t justify betting on the Dolphins anymore given that the line hasn’t moved and, if anything, sharps are betting on Buffalo.
Since it’s back at +7, you should be able to get a full refund from your bet. If you can’t get a refund, stop using that fucking book- end of story.
I enjoyed a 5-1, +3.9u Conference Championship weekend in CFB. I went 13-3 in bowl season in 2020 and finished last year on an 8-0 run. To start us off, I’m rolling with 3 plays for this first set of games on Saturday.
Both Cincinnati and Louisville have interim HC’s leading the way after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin and Scott Satterfield left for… Cincinnati. Satterfield surely knows the strengths and weaknesses of this Cardinals crew which should give the Bearcats an edge. In addition, I think we have a mismatch from an interim coach standpoint. Cincinnati will be led by Kerry Coombs, a tenured and well respected defensive mind who was recently at Ohio State and even spent time in the NFL. On the other side, Louisville has promoted Deion Branch to coach this game; yes, former NFL WR Deion Branch. A totally inexperienced coach at any level, I saw this as a strange move for the Cardinals that sounds a lot better in theory than in practice.
Both teams are playing at far less than full strength. Cincinnati saw 4 of their top 5 receiving options either transfer or opt out, and they will be without QB1 Ben Bryant due to injury. Louisville had their QB1, WR1, CB1, and 2 rotational RB’s all opt out as well.
Cincinnati will turn to Evan Prater at QB, a much more dual-threat option than what they had with Bryant for most of the season. Prater is not an established passer yet, but as exemplified in the Tulane game, he makes a pretty dangerous combination with Cincinnati’s plethora of RB’s in the run game. I haven’t been all that impressed with Louisville’s run defense this year; when we saw them last, a weak Kentucky OL consistently won up front and had their way against the Cardinals. The Cardinals will have success against pass-first teams with shaky OL’s, but neither applies to this matchup. I think Cincinnati will come out with a run-first approach, and with a mobile QB + multiple established RB options, I think this strategy can yield success.
It can’t be understated how much losing WR Tyler Hudson hurts this Louisville offense. He accounted for 69 catches and over 1,000 yards this year; the next Louisville WR only had 31 catches for 421 yards, and the Cards don’t have much quality depth at that position. Jawhar Jordan is a fine RB, but with the transfers at that position, he’s really the only viable option for Louisville at the moment. QB Brett Domann filled in on numerous occasions with Malik Cunningham in-and-out of the lineup and mostly struggled, throwing 2 more INTs than TDs and completing less than 54% of his passes. I really like this Cincinnati defense at all 3 levels. I think they can contain Jordan in the run game, get pressure on the immobile Domann, and handle what is a depleted group of Louisville WR’s.
I like the dynamics of this matchup for Cincinnati on multiple fronts and think the wrong team is favored here.
*CFB(1u): Florida/Oregon State UNDER 53–1:30 PM CT
Florida is in dire straits offensively right now. QB Anthony Richardson and 1st team All-American OL O’Cyrus Torrence both opted out to prepare for the NFL draft, and it is a total mystery as to which set of WR’s will be healthy enough to play. With their backup QB being dismissed from the team, the Gators will turn to Jack Miller(no snaps this season) to run the show. While Miller is a former Ohio State QB that certainly has the tools to be a Power 5 starter, his inexperience combined with the mystery at WR makes this a less than ideal situation for Billy Napier. It would be logical for Florida to turn to the run game given that they have a good 1-2 punch at that position(6 YPC between the two), but that plays right into Oregon State’s strength defensively. Oregon State is also dramatically improved in their secondary this year and should, at the very least, be competent enough to handle their own in this favorable matchup.
Oregon State is a run first offense that is very physical up front. We know Florida’s run defense hasn’t held up well this year, but this is where I think nuance comes into play. Oregon State enjoyed the luxury of playing against some historically bad defenses this season such as Stanford, Colorado, and Arizona State. Hell, even Washington, Oregon, and USC are below average defenses. Whatever Florida throws out there is going to be better than what Oregon State has seen for most of this season. I don’t see Jonathan Smith deviating much from his run-first approach given QB Ben Gulbranson is a true freshman and Florida is stronger in their secondary than against the run. With offenses like Oregon State, even efficient days aren’t going to yield huge dents in the scoreboard.
These are two very slow-paced teams; in fact, Oregon State is one of the slowest-paced teams in all of CFB. I see possessions being at a premium here, and any number above 52 gives us a lot of leeway on the Under.
*CFB(1u): Fresno State -3 vs Washington State–2:30 PM CT
We know one thing about Fresno State Football: They want nothing more than to beat Pac-12 teams. We saw them take down UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year and take 9-3 Oregon State to the wire this year. Whereas Washington State had two of their Top 3 WR’s and their star LB enter the transfer portal, Fresno State is at full strength and treating this as their Super Bowl. Another intangible in our favor: Jeff Tedford is 7-3 SU in bowl season, while Washington State just had both of their coordinators hired away.
I view Washington State’s offense as quite mediocre. Cameron Ward is a serviceable QB that isn’t going to put the ball in harm’s way, but 6.7 Y/A is nothing to write home about. We know about the attrition the Cougars have suffered at WR, but what’s probably most important to note entering this matchup is that Washington State’s OL is relatively weak. Ward has been sacked 4 or more times on 6 separate occasions this year, and their struggles have come against even mediocre DL’s. Fresno State is extremely good against the run and has also featured a tremendously improved pass defense over the course of their 8 game win streak. Washington State has struggled all year at creating explosive plays, and I think that’ll continue in this matchup.
Jake Haener is clearly the better QB in this matchup; a 3 year starter and notable “big game” player, Haener has thrown for 8.5 Y/A over the past 3 years and holds a 6:1 TD/INT ratio here in 2022. Fresno State is not going to create a ton of explosive plays on the ground, but simply put, this is a better, more efficient version of Washington State’s offense. In addition, I don’t think Washington State is going to feature anything more difficult than what Fresno State had to endure in the Mountain West this year. We talked about Washington State’s attrition at LB, but the Cougars have also had their fair share of struggles against the pass in some of their tougher matchups(it’s inexcusable to look as bad as they did vs Washington).
This is really a “stars align” sort of spot for Fresno State. I’d try to grab this while you can in case this shoots above Fresno State -4 and becomes too rich.
A 1-1 Tuesday brings me to 20-17-1 on the CBB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out in loud fashion. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Cincinnati TT OVER 82.5 vs Miami OH–6 PM CT
While Cincinnati is vulnerable defensively, their offense is pretty easy to trust. The Bearcats run at an above average pace, are solid from beyond the arc, and probably most importantly, take care of the basketball(1.4 assist/turnover ratio). Any team with a pulse should be able to score at will against a Miami OH defense that ranks 344th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom; the likes of Marshall, Indiana, and Indiana State approached or surpassed 90 with ease. Miami OH runs at a pretty average pace offensively, but even that would mean there should be ample chances for the Bearcats to get 85+ in this one.
*CBB(0.5u): Florida TT OVER 78 vs Ohio–6 PM CT
I’m not sure why this TT doesn’t start with an 8. Florida is a great 3-point shooting and free-throw shooting team, and probably most importantly, they run at a Top 30 pace in College Basketball. Ohio features a bottom 100 defense in the country that has specifically struggled on the road, allowing 88 at Detroit Mercy, 83 at Marshall, and 79 at Youngstown State. The Bobcats will try to slow this game down considerably, but Florida’s fast-paced nature will give them plenty of chances to get into the 80’s.
*CBB(0.5u): UCF/Ole Miss 1H UNDER 60.5–6:30 PM CT
Both the Knights and the Rebs feature Top 40 defenses in the country but leave some to be desired on the offensive end of the floor. Additionally, each team runs at a very slow pace, with UCF in particular running at a bottom 10 pace in all of CBB. UCF has shot the 3-ball better than Ole Miss this year, but they give that advantage back by struggling with turnovers(0.9 assist/turnover ratio). Ole Miss is pretty mediocre in virtually every offensive category.
When UCF has stepped up in competition this year, they’ve hung in games by mucking them up. Their battles with Oklahoma State and Santa Clara both failed to reach 120 points, and hell, they found a way to keep the Miami game to just 130.
Why 1H Under? I think UCF has a pretty good shot of keeping this game tight in the final minutes and making this a FT battle. To avoid that scenario, I’ll stick with the 1H Under.
Betting is a comedy. The fact that we’re not already 3-0 is absolutely unfathomable.
Warriors shit the bed, that wasn’t surprising, but Giannis didn’t have to play a full game. He still got 5 assists. We bet over 5.5.
Maybe our worst beat of the season yet, the Kings/76ers scored 135 points in the first half. Our handicap was correct. The game ended on 226. We bet over 228.
We move on, middle fingers in the air.
Important note: I have to be in the office tomorrow so I won’t be able to send out any picks in the morning. I may have more later in the afternoon.
Hawks -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hawks seem like a team to fade right now. The Magic seem to like a team to bet on right now. It’s tough to pick a spot for regression, but now that Trae sat out a game, he should be back with time to think about his transgressions. And how yea, he’s OWNED the Magic his whole career. Capela and other important pieces who took off on Monday should also be back. Fired up after a loss, I like ATL.
Raptors -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Kings/Raptors under 227 (-110), to win 1 unit
Something’s wrong in Sacramento, DeAaron Fox doesn’t look like himself, and now they’re on a back to back at one of the hardest places to play– Toronto. The Raptors are off 3 days rest, at home, and even though there’s no O.G. Anunoby, Siakam and company should be able to take care of business. Their length can clamp down on a smaller Kings’ team, too. The Raptors have dominated this series– they’ll continue to do so Wednesday in a low-scoring affair.
Play on Nuggets -6.5 or less, to win 1.5 units
This line isn’t out yet but the Wizards are very banged up, their offense has been clunky, and the place to get-right isn’t against a Denver offense finding its rhythm. The Nuggets should be able to just out-shoot and out-class the Wizards in production. Take this at anything less than 7.
Cavs/Mavs over 213.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Mavs are a top 10 offense at home, and while this may have a playoff feel in the sense that it’s two above average playoff teams, they’re not in the same conference. I like how Cleveland’s paint offense matches up against Dallas and I like how Dallas’ perimeter offense stacks up against the Cavs’ guards. They’re much bigger, in short. This total is about 6 points too low.
