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We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil previews the 2022/2023 Big 10 Basketball season. We go over player transitions, ATS numbers, coaching changes and everything that matters in the betting market. We also have a few future plays that Kiev gives out.
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Well, last night didn’t start the weekend in the black as App St was a loser but we continue to have a solid season at 43-33 (57%) to start the season in College Football and we look to have a successful Saturday! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will be listening to Enter Sandman Saturday afternoon as the Hokies of Virginia Tech enter Lane Stadium. The Yellow Jackets come into this one 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS and 2-6 o/u while the Hokies are 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS and 2-6 o/u.
Both teams are gaining less yardage (4.7, 4.8) than their opponents defensive average (5.3, 5.8) and are scoring about 8 points lower than their opponents defensive points score average. In addition, both offenses are fairly balanced but are two of the worst offenses in the nation, ranking 120th and 128th in success rate. GA Tech plays a bit faster than VA Tech but rank 11th and 14th in YYP (4.21, 4.6) in conference play and GA Tech has only 5 plays of 30 yards or more (11th in ACC). VA Tech has the edge on defense as they own the 20th best success rate and both teams don’t give up many big plays. The Hokies have given up 14 plays of 30 yards or more (50th in nation) and the Yellow Jackets have given up just 13 (38th). And when these 2 teams do get into the red zone, they seem to struggle punching it in. GA Tech has scored just 8 RZ touchdowns (127th) this season while the Hokies have scored 5 more, earning them the 107th ranking for red zone TDs. This sets up for a game in the teens and will be a tough watch. Maybe bet this and tune into another game haha. Take Under 40.5
Oregon St/Washington St under 55 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both of these teams have better defenses than given credit for. They also have subpar offenses and this game will see 18 mph winds.
Ohio State/Northwestern under 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
We’ve seen the Buckeyes play down to their competition and we think this will be the quintessential example. It’s a sleepy, sleeeepy spot after a big win at Happy Valley and Northwestern is always a tough competitor. There will also be a 90+% chance of rain and over 20 mph winds blowing in. Under and the dog.
Iowa/Purdue under 41 (-110), to win 2 units
It’s an Iowa game and there’s gonna be upwards of 32 mph winds in this contest. Yea, that’s worth a 2 unit under play for this guy.
Maryland/Wisconsin under 50.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maryland can score points but there’s a 93% chance of rain and 20 mph winds will be ripping through Badger Stadium. Plus, have you seen Wisconsin’s offense function? Ugly.
LSU 1H +7 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Alabama -13.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Death Valley at night is a significant home field advantage. Jayden Daniels is a talented dude and he can keep the Tigers in this early. But the full game? Give me a hedge both ways and the Crimson Side, behind a way better coach and better QB, to pull ahead late after some defensive adjustments at halftime. Tide roll! LSU ain’t ready, but they’ll be in it early.
Nets/Wizards under 223.5 (-110), to win 1 unit The Nets are still in disarray among all the chaos and they don’t have a coach just yet. Kyrie is out, a major factor in their total offensive production. The Wizards are at home after a big win with plenty of rest, and they’re a bend-don’t-break defense that limits teams to 40 pts in the paint, under 50 rebounds per game, and 111 ppg (11th). I like this to be a slow moving, awkward game for Durant in DC. In Kevin’s home city, he’ll put too much on his shoulders and ISO ball will slow down the game, too.
Bucks/T-Wolves under 227.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Bucks are the #1 team in defensive efficiency so far this season. When the T-Wolves play at home, they’re a better defensive team. It’ll be strength against strength under the rim, as the length and size of Milwaukee rivals the big boys of Minnesota. Minnesota’s pace may create some high scoring at some point, but I think the Bucks can slow it down and make it a tough game. The Timberwolves also just got humbled by the Suns, who are proving to still be a titan in the West, and they’ll look to stifle the Bucks’ offense. The Bucks are relying on their defense to win and they’re a proud 7-0. Like a very competitive game and an under in this one.
Celtics -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
This number has been steady where it is and if we think the Celtics are still an elite team (I do), this is a fantastic response spot at home after a disappointing loss to the Cavs. Cleveland has bested Boston twice this year already, which should leave the defending Eastern Conference Champions feeling a little more vulnerable than they’re used to this early in the season. This is a classic spot for the Bulls to stumble and get blown out- we know they don’t play as well against elite teams or on the road. Give me Boston to rally in the second and overwhelm the Bulls at home. I wouldn’t take the Bulls in the 3rd QTR this time, either.
PS:My good buddies LOVE Grant Williams to go over his PAR prop. He’s gone over in all but one game this season and this sets up to be a testy game where they’ll need a very active Williams. Not official for me, but I like it!
Lakers -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Shockingly, there’s some positive news around the Lakers right now. Russell Westbrook has played really well the last two games and the Lakers are winning at home. They stay at home for a big game against Cleveland, but the Jazz are in the middle of a tough road stretch. The Lakers will want it more, in my opinion, and the Jazz are due for some regression. Let’s face it. Ugly, but I have to play on LAL tonight.
I released 4 Best Bets yesterday and am back with 3 more plays for you, including one for tonight. I expect to add a play or two more before Saturday; to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Oregon State 1H +3 @ Washington–Friday 9:30 PM CT
This is a contrast in styles type of game; Oregon State is a run-first team, while Washington almost exclusively creates explosiveness through the air. On a night where wind and rain will be a factor(particularly early in this game), I like the way Oregon State’s style matches up with what’s proven to be a pretty shoddy Washington defense.
Oregon State RB Damien Martinez has emerged as the Beavers’ #1 back, running for nearly 300 yards over his last 2 games and 6.5 YPC on the season. Washington has been solid within their front 7 this year, but they haven’t shown me enough to where I can trust them against this physical Oregon State rushing attack. If Oregon State is able to establish the ground game, that’s going to open up a massive opportunity in the passing game against a Huskies defense that has allowed 11 Y/A or more to guys like Jayden de Laura and Tanner McKee this year. I don’t particularly care whether it’s Chance Nolan or Ben Gulbranson at QB for OSU tonight; those guys have almost identical numbers, both throwing for over 8 Y/A on the year.
The Washington passing game is good, but this offense doesn’t feature much balance. RB1 Wayne Taulapapa’s numbers are skewed from massive games against Portland State and Stanford; he is not a difference-maker in the ground game. While Washington’s OL has finally started to live up to their potential, Penix has slowly started to regress here over the last month as the competition has ramped up. Oregon State’s defense is much improved this season, particularly in the secondary. They held Caleb Williams to under 50% completion and just 5 Y/A, a performance that’s aged very nicely. With the run defense being their strength, I expect them to make Washington one-dimensional tonight.
The conditions early in this game clearly favor Oregon State’s ground-and-pound attack, and I’ve seen enough from this defense to trust them against a very predictable offense. It’s still hard to close out games on the road, and we’re getting a more favorable number in the 1H; I’ll back the Beavers early in this ballgame.
*CFB(1u): Kentucky 1H PK(-110) @ Missouri–Saturday 11 AM CT
Sentiment on Kentucky is low after they were blown out at Tennessee in loud fashion last week. Meanwhile, Missouri is coming off a win at South Carolina where the defense looked impressive. While I don’t believe Mark Stoops will ever be able to match up with the blue bloods in the SEC given his conservative style, this is the exact type of game where he makes his money.
The main matchup advantage I like for Kentucky is in their run game. Chris Rodriguez Jr was a 6 YPC back a year ago and has slowly gotten back into form after missing the first month of the season. Missouri, on the other hand, can absolutely be had in the run game. This is one of the worst run defenses in America last year, and while they’ve improved slightly, it doesn’t mean I trust them against this level of RB. Missouri does do a good job of limiting explosiveness over the top in the passing game, but with the efficiency I expect Kentucky to be able to run the ball at, I expect the 1-on-1 matchups to be there for QB Will Levis. Despite last week’s monstrosity against Tennessee, Levis is still over 9 Y/A on the season.
There is absolutely nothing special about Missouri’s offense. QB Brady Cook is under 7.5 Y/A and has thrown more INT’s than TD’s on the year. The Tigers offense lacks a consistent vertical passing game and rank 92nd in yards/play, a big reason why they can’t finish drives. The run game is perhaps slightly above average, but I don’t expect them to create much explosiveness against what’s been a pretty solid Kentucky run defense this year. I don’t worry about Kentucky’s defense despite them allowing 44 to Tennessee last week; they are clearly not built to step up in competition like that, but thankfully, they’re not being asked to in this matchup.
Why isolate Kentucky in the 1H? I have noticed(and been burned by) a trend where teams playing their 2nd straight road game tend to fade off considerably in the second half. In addition, it’s hard to close out games on the road, particularly in a tight matchup in this conference. With that said, I like the way Kentucky’s run first approach will fare in this matchup and think Missouri’s offense actually presents a favorable matchup for the Wildcats. 1H PK it is!
There are a lot of coaching changes this year. As sports bettors, and/or college basketball fans, we all know how important these coaches are to predicting outcomes. Pace is a massive factor when it comes to the point differential as well as the total amount of points that are scored in a game. I categorize each team as either, Much Faster, Faster, No Change, Slower, Much Slower and NA for not enough information. Keep in mind that these are all projections based on association, and past performance. Here are the coaching changes with my predictions for 2022/2023 pace of play. Follow me on twitter for more wagering content @OBKiev.
Alabama A&M: Dylan Howard / Otis Hughley, Jr. – Not enough information. He previously served as the head coach of the Nigerian national team, where he guided the team to three AfroBasket Women championships and the 2020 Summer Olympics. NA
Alabama State: Mo Williams / Tony Madlock – Tony was at South Carolina State and also had a fast pace of play ranking 44th in tempo to Alabama State last year ranking 62nd. No changes here. No change
Ball State: James Whitford / Michael Lewis – Ball state ranked 46th in tempo with James Whitford while Michael Lewis from UCLA ranked 277th in Tempo under head coach Mick Cronin. I expect slow play. MuchSlower
Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- One of the biggest tempo changes in the country. Lewis will focus more on defense and they will slow things down drastically.
Butler: LaVall Jordan / Thad Matta – Thad is back at Butler and will increase the pace from 326 to around the 200 area. Faster
Chattanooga: Lamont Paris / Dan Earl – Going from 304th to 78th looks like a big step up on speed for the Mocs. Much Faster
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- This will be one of the biggest tempo changes in the country. Earl’s teams consistently were also very efficient on offense.
The Citadel: Dugger Baucom / Ed Conroy – Ed Conroy from Vanderbilt takes the team from 34th to 130th in Tempo. Being that the SEC played fast in general, this number could go down to the 200s. Much Slower
Cleveland State: Dennis Gates / Daniyal Robinson – Most of Robinson’s assistant tenure was under fast paced Steve Prohm until Iowa State slowed it down last year, so not enough info here for me. NA
Davidson: Bob McKillop / Matt McKillop – 307th in pace should stay the same with the father to the son here. No Change
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Matt McKillop said he wants Davidson to look to score in transition more than they have in the past (almost none). I don’t think they will be fast, but I expect them to be a little faster.
Duke: Mike Krzyzewski / Jon Scheyer- Mentor to Mentee means no change, however I will say that Duke has slowed it down some over the past two years. No Change
East Carolina: Joe Dooley / Michael Schwartz – 138th in tempo to a bit slower at around 180th-ish from Michael’s tenure as an assistant at Tennessee. Great defense though! Slower
Elon: Mike Schrage / Billy Taylor – 253rd in tempo to the 50s. Billy Taylor was an assistant at Iowa. Expect no D. Much Faster
Evansville: Todd Lickliter / David Ragland – 329th in Tempo to roughly the same. Ragland was an assistant at Butler – No Change
Fairleigh Dickinson: Greg Herenda / Tobin Anderson – 54th in Tempo to not sure. Tobin was a Division 2 coach at Saint Thomas Aquinas – NA
Florida: Mike White / Todd Golden – 267th in Pace mainly slower due to decent defense. Todd had the Dons at 82nd in pace last year, but that was an increase from average over the years. Faster
Florida Gulf Coast: Michael Fly / Pat Chambers – 40th in pace to probably around 150th. Pat Chambers played pretty fast in the Big 10 but much slower than Michael Fly last year. Slower
Fordham: Kyle Neptune / Keith Urgo – Keith was Kyle’s mentee last year so no change from average pace. No Change
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I expect Fordham to play faster under Urgo this year. Urgo said in the preseason that Fordham wanted to play a much faster pace last year, but injuries made them slow things down. He should be pushing the pace here. I still think their offense is weak though.
George Washington: Jamion Christian / Chris Caputo – 83rd to maybe around 150th. A little slower for Caputo coming from Miami. Slower
Georgia: Tom Crean / Mike White – 99th to 267th will certianly be slower for the former Florida coach. Tom Crean used to lose very fast! Much Slower
Georgia State: Rob Lanier / Jonas Hayes – 169th to about the same with the former assistant and interim head coach of Xavier Jonas Hayes. No Change
High Point: Tubby Smith / G.G. Smith – Another Father to son transition. 250th-ish over Tubby’s career. No Change
Illinois State: Dan Muller / Ryan Pedon – 119th in pace to 289th for the former assistant coach at Ohio State. That’s slower for sure. Much Slower
Jackson State: Wayne Brent / Mo Willliams – 337th to 62nd is a huge change. Almost like Deon Sanders type speed! Much Faster
Missouri Kansas City: Billy Donlon / Marvin Menzies – Donlon picked up the pace last year some but was known for slower play in the past. Marvin was an assistant from Grand Canyon and will push it back to slow around 280th in pace. Slower
Kansas State: Bruce Weber / Jerome Tang – Webber’s fastest year was last year at 213th, but Jerome Tang the former assistant at Baylor will keep it close. No Change
La Salle: Ashley Howard / Fran Dunphy – 173rd to probably around 240th. Fran Dunphy’s years at Temple gave him the most success when he played a slower pace. Slower
Lafayette: Fran O’Hanlon / Mike Jordan – From 303rd to about 150 ish-with the former Colgate and Drexel assistant coach. Faster
LIU: Derek Kellogg / Rod Strickland – From 6th in pace to I am guessing average. Not a lot of data on Rod Strickland, but as an assistant in 2014 to 2017 with South Florida, they played an average pace. Slower
Louisiana Tech: Eric Konkol / Talvin Hester – from 102nd to 200 ish, Talvin Hester was an assistant coach at Louisiana Tech in the past, and Texas Tech just last year. Slower
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Hester will likely slow things down some, and he has made it very clear his main focus is on making this a great defensive team.
Louisville: Chris Mack / Kenny Payne – 188th to about the same. Chris Mack was gone last year mid-season and the team started to play faster. Kenny Payne spent a lot of time as an assistant in Kentucky who played good D and an average pace. No Change
LSU: Will Wade / Matt McMahon – 101st to 200th. LSU slowed it down some last year but Matt McMahon from Murray State will slow it even more. Slower
Maine: Richard Barron / Chris Markwood – 229th to around 290th. Chris Markwood was a long time assistant at Northeastern. Slower
Maryland: Mark Turgeon / Kevin Willard – 211th in pace will probably stay close to the same. Kevin Willard was all over the place in pace at Seton Hall. No Change
Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Hard to guess where Willard’s teams will finish in tempo, but I do think they will be improved on the defensive end over time.
UMass: Matt McCall / Frank Martin – 76th to probably around 10th. Frank Martin is a speedster as a former head coach at South Carolina. Faster
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- A faster pace for sure, but time will tell if their games will have more points or not. McCall’s teams were really bad on defense. Can Martin make them improve on defense?
Miami (OH): Jack Owens / Travis Steele – 132nd to about 170th for the former Xavier coach Travis Steele. Not a big enough change for me. No Change
Milwaukee: Pat Baldwin Sr. / Bart Lundy – 116th to maybe faster. Bart Lundy was in a lower division for a long time and it’s been 10 years since his Marquette assistant coaching days. NA
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I think Lundy is an excellent coach. He wants to pick up full court man to man constantly, and I would expect a faster pace here. The team should be better with time as well.
Mississippi State: Ben Howland / Chris Jans – 259th to probably around 290th. Not a big change when Chris Jans was at New Mexico State. No Change
Mississippi Valley State: Lindsey Hunter / George Ivory – Mentor to Mentee relationship here so I assume they keep the super fast pace that ranked 1st 3 years ago. No Change
Missouri: Cuonzo Martin / Dennis Gates – 260th in pace to I am not sure. Dennis Gates has played fast and slow at Cleveland State depending on personal. No change
Murray State: Matt McMahon / Steve Prohm – 181st to 100th I predict. Steve Prohm played faster at Iowa State and he is back to his old coaching gig. Faster
New Mexico State: Chris Jans / Greg Heiar – 238th to 80th is what I forecast being that he was at LSU as an assistant under Will Wade from 2017 to 2020. Much Faster
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- A really good under the radar find here by Kiev. I think this will be one of the biggest tempo change teams.
North Carolina A&T: Will Jones/Phillip Shumphert (interim) – Not an ideal situation after Jones got fired just in August. Same average pace around 159th. No Change
Northwestern State: Mike McConathy / Corey Gipson – 18th to probably around 180th as Corey Gipson is coming from his assistant role at Missouri State. Much Slower
Omaha: Derrin Hansen / Chris Crutchfield – 50th to around 100th so slightly slower. Crutchfield has been an assistant at many programs like Oklahoma, TCU and Oregon. They all trended a bit faster than average. Slower
Rhode Island: David Cox / Archie Miller – 171st to 230th. Archie Miller played a little slower at Indiana but he might not be extreme here. Slower
Sacramento State: Brandon Laird (interim) / David Patrick – 324th to about 290th. David Patrick was an assistant at speedy Arkansas and then to slower Oklahoma. No Change
Saint Peter’s: Shaheen Holloway / Bashir Mason 247th to 270th. Bashir Mason started out fast at Wagner and slowed it down. No Change
San Diego: Sam Scholl / Steve Lavin – 262nd to 80th is my prediction. Steve Lavin coached at UCLA and Saint Johns before broadcasting. His kids played at a high tempo. Much Faster
San Francisco: Todd Golden / Chris Gerlufsen – Internal promotion from assistant. Remains 82nd in pace. No Change
Seton Hall: Kevin Willard / Shaheen Holloway – 167th to around 250th. Shaheen was a bit slower at St Peters. What a run last year! Slower
South Carolina: Frank Martin / Lamont Paris – 33rd to 300th. Lamont Paris at Chattanooga had a very slow pace of play. Much Slower
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Paris is a good coach and he is excellent at getting his team to control the pace of the game. They will slow things down to a crawl.
South Carolina State: Tony Madlock / Erik Martin – 44th to maybe 120th. Erik Martin was an assistant at Press Virginia under Huggy Bear. Slower
South Dakota: Todd Lee / Eric Peterson- 256th to around 220. Eric Peterson bounced around Utah for a while. No Change
SMU: Tim Jankovich / Rob Lanier – 107th to about 70th. Rob Lanier from Georgia State plays a little faster than Tim Jankovich did. Faster
Tulsa: Frank Haith / Eric Konkol – 214th to 102nd is a bit faster for sure. Erik Konkol was good at LA Tech. Faster
Villanova: Jay Wright / Kyle Neptune – I still can’t believe he is gone! 340th to about the same. Kyle Neptune was Jay Wright’s protégé for a while. He however did play faster last year coaching for Fordham. No Change
Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I think they will play a little bit faster under Neptune, but Villanova has been so efficient on offense under Wright that I’m not sure they will score more even with a slightly faster pace.
VMI: Dan Earl / Andrew Wilson – – 67th to 80th. Andrew Wilson came from James Madison where he was an assistant. No Change
Wagner: Bashir Mason / Donald Copeland- 217th to 167th isn’t significant where Donald Copeland came from Seton Hall. No Change
Weber State: Randy Rahe / Eric Duft – Eric was Randy’s assistant all the way back dating to 2006. The 60th in pace stays the same. No Change
Western Michigan: Clayton Bates / Dwayne Stephens – 331st to about 185th. Dwayne Stephens was an assistant to Tom Izzo dating back to 2003! Faster
Xavier: Travis Steele / Sean Miller – 100th to about 220th. Sean Miller didn’t play all that fast in Arizona for most of his years. Slower
Kyle Hunter’s Added Teams To Watch for Tempo Changes
Eastern Washington- Coach Riley says it is his goal to make his Eastern Washington team to play “much faster” in the year ahead. They were already quick, but it sounds like they want to be top 20 in tempo.
FIU- Jeremy Ballard’s team slowed things down a lot from their break neck pace from a couple years ago, but Ballard says his team is about to ramp up the tempo once again. Much faster.
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 6-2 in the high participant Double-Ups. We won this last week thanks to the P.J. Walker to DJ Moore bomb. I don’t care that he took his helmet off at all. Got us more stats in OT. We hit more BYEs this week making the available player pool tighter.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Taylor Heinicke, QB: $5,400. Josh Allen is the clear number one play, but at $8,500 he’s just too rich to build a solid lineup around without getting lucky. The Vikings are 9th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, but 31st in passing yards per attempt allowed at 7.7. Outside of Aaron Rodgers week 1, every QB has had a solid game against this defense. Even Justin Fields had 9.9 yards per attempt in their match-up. Heinicke has thrown the ball over 30 times in both his starts so far and I don’t see any reason the Commanders don’t attack this defense downfield on Sunday.
Aaron Jones, RB: $7,400. Jones quietly racked up a big game last week in the loss to Buffalo. He had 20 carries for 143 yards and caught 4 passes out of the backfield. While he will still split time with A.J. Dillon in the backfield, Jones gets the Lions share of the snaps. Speaking of the Lions, they are allowing 5.1 yards per rushing attempt. That’s not going to get it done against a Packers team that will continue to lean on the ground game while Aaron Rodgers and his receivers lack continuity.
Kenneth Walker III, RB: $6,200. Walker hits the lineup again as he continues to get carries and find the end-zone. Against the Cardinals in Week 6 he had 97 yards on 21 carries and scored. He has 5 scores in 4 games since becoming the main guy in the Seahawks backfield. I also like Eno Benjamin or James Conner on the other side of this match-up depending on who plays.
Terry McLaurin, WR: $5,900. Heinicke becomes the starting QB again and McLaurin becomes relevant. He has 11 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown with Heinicke back at the helm. Going up against this pass defense that’s 31st in yards per attempt we have to stack him here with Heinicke.
Deandre Hopkins, WR: $7,900. Just put Hopkins in every lineup until they get his price up where Jefferson and Kupp are at. 27 targets in his two games back with 22 catches, 262 yards and a score. Seattle held Murray in check in Week 6 sacking him 6 times and holding him to 222 yards passing. Hopkins changes the complexion of this offense however and if Seattle brings pressure that means Hopkins is likely facing solo coverage. I think he gets to 100 yards again on Sunday.
Tee Higgins, WR: $7,300. Higgins should be Joe Burrow’s main target with Chase out. He struggled on Monday night, but so did the Bengals offensive line. When Burrow gets protection, his receivers have big days. It should happen again here versus the Panthers who are 30th in the NFL in sacks getting just 1.5 per game.
Robert Tonyan, TE: $3,600. Tonyan led the Packers in targets on Sunday night against Buffalo and is one of the few people I think Rodgers trusts at the moment. He also had a TD called back for offensive PI so he should be in play near the goal line. The Lions allow over 5 catches and 59 yards per game to opposing tight ends so this is a juicy match-up for Tonyan.
Laviska Shenault Jr., FLEX: $3,300. With P.J. Walker at the helm opposing defenses will have to respect the pass and deal with D’onta Foreman on the ground. This offense has looked much better the last few games and been very well balanced. That being said I expect them to be playing from behind against the Bengals on Sunday and they will need to pass to stay in the game. Shenault was third on the team in targets behind DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall. He is also finally healthy so should continue to be the #3 guy in Carolina and I expect another 3-5 catches and maybe he can snag a score.
Colts, DST: $2,700. The Colts will face the Patriots offense and Matt Patricia and Joe Judge and Mac Jones and maybe Bailey Zappe. The Jets held the Pats to under 300 yards last week, and the Colts are 7th in points allowed per game at 19.6. This has been a solid unit that has kept the subpar Colts offense in games up to this point. They just haven’t created a bunch of turnovers up to this point. I think this could be the week that changes.
We have a massive slate tonight with thirteen games taking place across the NHL. I’ll break down my picks and offer a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
Winnipeg Jets in Regulation (-135) – DraftKings
Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units
The Jets have looked reinvigorated after a disappointing season last year. They’ve started 5-3-1 and are currently 2nd in the Central Division. Winnipeg was outplayed in their last game against the Vegas Golden Knights but thanks to the play of Connor Hellebuyck, they were able to salvage a point.
Montreal has gone 5-5 to start the year with the majority of their wins coming on home ice. Head coach Martin St. Louis has been able to inspire some of their young talents, specifically Cole Caufield.
Winnipeg has struggled to generate and capitalize on scoring chances. They rank 24th in GF/G (2.89) and 23rd in SOG/G (29.7). However, Winnipeg has been much better at home this season averaging 3.00 GF/G and 36.0 SOG/G. Kyle Connor who had 93 points last season has gotten off to a slow start with only four points through their first nine games.
Just like the Jets, Montreal hasn’t been great at producing offense. They’re 26th in GF/G (2.80) and 21st in SOG/G (29.80). On the road, their production worsens averaging 2.40 GF/G and 29.0 SOG/G. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack averaging 3.1 GA/G with that number moving to 3.2 away from home.
Connor Hellebuyck and Sam Montembeault have been confirmed as the starters for tonight’s matchup. As I mentioned above, Hellebuyck has had a rebound year ranking 3rd in GSAx (+7.4). Montembeault has been the worse of Montreal’s goaltending duo but has still played well ranking 17th in GSAx (+3.2).
The Jets have been a different team on home ice this season while Montreal hasn’t been as sharp on the road. I think the Jets rebound after a tough performance in Vegas. Also, this total shouldn’t be at 6.5. I think this game finishes 3-1 or 4-2 Jets, so I lean the under.
Calgary Flames in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings
Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units
The Flames have had a slow start to the year when you compare it to their preseason expectations. They’re 5-3-0 sitting in 5th place in the Pacific Division. In their last game, they collapsed and blew a 4-2 lead in the 3rd period to the Seattle Kraken. There’s no doubt they’ll be looking to move on quickly from that loss.
The Predators have had a bizarre start to their season. They played their first two games in Prague, where they won both against an inferior opponent. Since then, they’ve lost seven of their last eight games.
Calgary generates a ton of scoring opportunities ranking 3rd in SOG/G and 8th in xGoal %. They’ve had issues capitalizing on these chances ranking 22nd in Shooting % but even with that, they still rank 8th in GF/G (3.50).
Nashville has struggled to produce offensively ranking 27th in GF/G averaging 2.60. Defensively, they rank 23rd averaging 3.50 GA/G but away from home that number jumps to 4.75 GA/G.
Jacob Markstrom is the confirmed starter for Calgary tonight with Juuse Saros expected to get the nod for Nashville. Markstrom has looked good through his first six games with a +3.5 GSAx while Saros has struggled with a -0.2 GSAx.
While the Flames haven’t looked stellar at home this season, they’ve faced some good teams. Nashville hasn’t looked great away from home either with a 1-3-0 record on the year. From all the local reporters, Flames head coach Darryl Sutter wasn’t too happy after their most recent loss. Calgary dominated that game but sloppy play lead to scoring chances for the Kraken which they took advantage of. I’m guessing we see an inspired Flames team tonight against an inferior opponent.
Seattle Kraken/ Minnesota Wild over 6.5 (-110) – FanDuel
Risk 0.28 to win 0.25 Units
Seattle ranks 10th in GF/G averaging 3.45. On the road, that number jumps to 4.00 GF/G. Defensively, they average 3.45 GA/G (22nd) but away from home that number decreases slightly to 3.40.
Minnesota averages 3.40 GF/G ranking 10th. At home, they have been even better averaging 4.00 GF/G. Defensively, they rank 25th in the NHL giving up an average of 3.60 GA/G. However, at home, they’ve been even worse with a 4.80 GA/G.
Martin Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury have been confirmed as tonight’s starting goalies. Jones has a 3.09 GAA and sub .900 SV%. He currently ranks 39th in the terms of GSAx with a -1.1. Fleury has also had a rough start to the season with a 3.33 GAA and .894 SV%. He’s been even worse than Jones in terms of goals saved above expected with a -2.5.
Player Props to Target:
Anders Lee over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3 SOG and over 3.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. St. Louis ranks 12th in SOG allowed per game. The Blues also allow the 7th most SOG per game to Left Wingers.
Brendan Gallagher over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and over 4.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five games. Winnipeg ranks 23rd in SOG allowed per game. The Jets also allow the 19th most SOG per game to Right Wingers.
Nazem Kadri over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4 SOG and over 7.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Nashville ranks 19th in SOG allowed per game. The Predators also allow the 9th most SOG per game to Centers.
Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. Arizona ranks 31st in SOG allowed per game. The Coyotes also allow the most SOG per game to Defensemen in the NHL.
Frank Vatrano over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Vancouver ranks 21st in SOG allowed per game. The Canucks also allow the 5th most SOG per game to Right Wingers.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Whos ready for a big night?! We have the World Series, NHL and NBA but we are headed to the Sun Belt! 43-32 (57%) to start the season in College Football and we look to have a big weekend starting tonight! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Appalachian State Mountaineers travel south east to Conway, SC to take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at James C. Benton Field at Brooks Stadium tonight. The Mountaineers enter 5-1 SU, 3-5 ATS and 4-4 o/u while the Chanticleers are 71 SU, 3-4-1 ATS and also 4-4 o/u. This sets up as a revenge spot for Coastal since App St beat them last season 30-27 in Boone. These are 2 teams that average over 30 points per game, over 430 yards and over 6 yards per play on offense. Coastal has the advantage through the air but will that be slowed by the Mountaineers pass rush? The Chanticleers rank 91st in the nation in pass blocking and App State’s 19th ranked pass rush will look to get to Grayson McCall before he can throw the ball and keep him on the ground more than he is used to. Defensive is where we see the biggest difference between these 2 squads. Against FBS teams, Coastal ranks 113th in the nation by allowing 6.23 yards per play and it has increased a bit in conference play (6.55), ranking them 13th in in Sun Belt. The Mountaineers have played better in their last 3 games, ranking 30th in the nation in YPP (4.7) and rank 18th nationally by allowing just 310.25 yards per game this season. This line opened at 2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers and due to 54% of bets and 81% of the money is on App State tonight, the line moved up to the key number of -3. And that’s where we locked it in. Take App State -3
