We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from @BetSperts and The Deep Dive podcast comes on to break down a HUGE slate of NFL games! First, Kiev talks about the power ball as well as the College Football week 11 slate of games with some FREE PLAYS and leans! Next, Kiev quickly covers UFC 281 main card with a play on a big dog. Then, Andy comes on and the guys get into some of the coaches that could get fired soon in the NFL. After that, the guys get into the full slate of NFL week 10 games somehow with 100% agreement on all of the plays that they have made so far. Finally, Kiev gives out a teaser and talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Coming off a 6-2, +4.08u Week 10, we are really starting to hit a stride in CFB!
I expect to have another high-volume card here in Week 11, and I will roll all those plays out over the next few days. I have moved on 2 games that I want to go ahead and hand out and will follow up with more tomorrow morning.
*CFB(1u): Rutgers/Michigan State UNDER 40.5–Saturday 11 AM CT
Rutgers Unders have been a thing of beauty for us this year, and it’s not hard to see why. The Scarlet Knights rank 127th in the country in yards/play but actually feature a very solid defense. This is a secondary that held both CJ Stroud and JJ McCarthy to under 7 Y/A, and the run defense is more than capable of holding MSU at bay. The Spartans got somewhat of a spark on the ground last week Illinois, but that still only amounted to 112 rushing yards. Aside from that, this has been a putrid unit that fails to step up on a consistent basis. QB Payton Thorne has had to shoulder the entire load and, as you might expect, has seriously regressed as a passer(7.1 Y/A) from where he was last year when he shared the backfield with Kenneth Walker III.
Michigan State’s strength defensively is stopping the run, and they won’t face much of a threat in that facet with Rutgers’ RB1 on the shelf. That leaves the Scarlet Knights with a below average run game to pair with what’s been putrid QB play. It’s been a bit of a revolving door at QB for Greg Schiano, but he seems to be riding the high-upside youngster Gavin Wimsatt. Wimsatt brings some mobility to the table, but he gives it right back with a 43% completion, 5.1 Y/A, and 2 TD vs 6 INT. I know Michigan State’s secondary hasn’t been particularly stout since the arrival of Mel Tucker, but we’re talking about a legitimate dream matchup here facing a bottom 5 offense in the country.
There are a few other elements in this matchup that clearly point towards a play on the Under. Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in the country in pace, and each also ranks in the bottom 30 in red zone efficiency. I see this game playing out in the low-to-mid 30’s; think 21-10 or 24-10. I know this total is low, but anything at or above 38 presents a good opportunity to play this Under.
*CFB(1u): Wake Forest -3.5 vs North Carolina–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
North Carolina is on the second game of a tough back-to-back road stretch, while Wake Forest returns home after a tough road stretch of their own. Wake Forest is one of the most experienced teams in the country, while North Carolina is relying on 1st year players at a multitude of key positions.
In my opinion, one of the biggest stories in CFB should be that North Carolina is (somehow) 8-1 despite having one of the worst defenses in the country. This unit does nothing well and has been bailed out by having a superstar QB in Drake Maye. However, I believe this is the spot where UNC gets exposed for this glaring weakness. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman is a 5th year player that is having another very good year for the Demon Deacons(8.8 Y/A, 24 TD vs 9 INT). Paired with him are 4 separate WR’s that each have at least 25 catches and average over 14 yards/reception. I’ll concede that Wake Forest is mediocre in the run game and nothing to write home about along their OL, but once again, we have to consider how little resistance UNC’s defense provides. Appalachian State hung 61 on this unit, Notre Dame hung 45 on this unit, Miami totaled 496 passing yards on this unit, and even Virginia looked competent against the Tar Heels last week. I expect Sam Hartman to have a career day.
UNC QB Drake Maye has been incredible for the Tar Heels in his inaugural season; Maye has completed over 70% of his passes, thrown for over 9 Y/A, and holds a TD/INT ratio above 10. With all of this said, I wouldn’t exactly call the Tar Heels a balanced attack; RB health has been a major issue in Chapel Hill(Maye is the leading rusher), and the Tar Heels also struggle mightily to protect Maye(6 games with 3+ sacks). I wouldn’t call Wake Forest’s defense “good”, but I think they are solid along their Back 7 and should be able to win against UNC up front. For context, Wake Forest ranks 50th in defensive FEI, while North Carolina ranks 118th.
If UNC’s tactic of riding a 1st year QB was to ever burst into flames, it would be in a “second straight road game” spot at night against an arch rival that is riddled with experience. Both offenses are good, but I expect UNC’s defensive incompetence to finally catch up with them.
The Packers out-gained the Lions 389 to 254 yet lost 15-9. A 3-1 turnover ratio all in the Red zone destroyed them.
Kansas City out-gained the Titans 499 to 229 yet only won 20-17. A 1-0 turnover ratio, 10 penalties and poor red zone efficiency hurt them. The Titans worked hard against Kelcey.
Western Michigan out-gained Bowling Green 318 to 291 yet lost 13-9. They won the turnover battle 2-3 yet were bad in the Red Zone.
Rice out-gained UTEP 502 to 313 yet only won 37-30. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt their margin.
Boston College’s yards vs Duke were garbage time.
UMASS’s yards vs UCONN were mainly garbage time.
Air Force out-gained Army 324 to 134 yet only won 13-7. Equal turnovers and bad red zone hurt Air Force’s margin.
Northwestern out-gained Ohio State 285 to 283 yet lost 21-7. This might be kind of a throw out game though because the wind was so darn bad. I still had to adjust Ohio State down some.
Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 499 to 413 yet lost 38-35. A 3-1 turnover ratio killed them.
Illinois out-gained Michigan State 441 to 294 yet lost 23-15. Equal turnovers at 1-1 but horrible 4th down efficiency at 1-6. Bad Red Zone as well.
UAB out-gained UTSA 553 to 494 yet lost 44-38. A 1-0 turnover ratio and 10 penalties hurt bad.
Arkansas out-gained Liberty 428 to 315 yet lost 21-19. A 2-1 turnover ratio and being asleep the 1st half killed them.
Alabama out-gained LSU 465 to 367 yet lost 32-21. A 1-0 turnover ratio, bad field position and 9 penalties hurt bad. They also lost on a phantom 2 point conversion.
Houston out-gained SMU 710 to 642 yet lost 77-63. A 3-0 turnover ratio hurt them bad.
UNLV out-gained San Diego State 325 to 314 yet lost 14-10. A 4-1 turnover ratio hurt.
Wake Forest out-gained NC State 414 to 325 yet lost 30-21. A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.
Colorado State out-gained San Jose State 468 to 355 yet lost 28-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio, 9 sacks and 13 penalties did them in.
Some of Cal’s yards were garbage yards to back door cover.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the two games for November 2nd along with several other topics.
Topics:
Around the League
NHL Underachievers/ Overachievers
NHL Preview/ Picks – November 9th, 2022
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens
Minnesota Wild @ Anaheim Ducks
NHL Preview/ Picks – November 10th, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights @ Buffalo Sabres
Philadelphia Flyers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Ottawa Senators @ New Jersey Devils
Arizona Coyotes @ New York Islanders
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Congrats to everyone who backed Russell Henley last week at the World Wide Technologies Championship at Mayakoba. He had a massive lead heading into the final round and was able to hold on finishing 23 under. This was his fourth career PGA Tour victory with his last one coming back in 2017 at this week’s event, the Houston Open.
We went even in terms of the placement market last week but finished down slightly as we failed to cash on the winner. Taylor Montgomery, Collin Morikawa, and Nick Hardy all finished inside the top 21 but none could catch Henley.
The Houston Open debuted on Tour over 75 years ago, back in 1946. However, this will only be the third time it’s held at the current venue, Memorial Park Golf Course. The course has ranked near one of the toughest on Tour so it should be a great test for the players in the field. Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Sam Burns are the main headliners this week with all of them having some solid course history here.
Saturday: AM Showers 53 F, 12 mp/h NNE, 53% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
Sunday: PM Showers 51 F, 11 mp/h E, 54% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Houston Open will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course for just the third time. In 2019 the Astros Foundation donated $34 million to revamp Memorial Park under the leadership of Tom Doak.
Before 2020, this tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston. Two years ago this tournament took place a week before the Masters due to the COVID-19 schedule changes. However this year, it’s the second to last PGA Tour Event in the Fall season.
This is also the first year that Cadence Bank will take over the sponsorship rights. The prize pool has been increased to $8.4 Million from $7.5 Million.
72-Hole Record (Memorial Park): 267, Carlos Ortiz (2020)
18-Hole Record (Memorial Park): 62, Scottie Scheffler (Round 2, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
After a couple of weeks of short courses, we finally arrive at Memorial Park Golf Course. Memorial is a particularly long course that plays just over 7,400 yards and places an emphasis on Strokes Gained Off the Tee. We always talk about how the long hitters have an advantage but they especially do here. Memorial played as the 9th toughest venue on tour last year which correlates to the scoring average.
This is a municipal course so if you’re ever in the Houston area, feel free to go check it out. When describing the course, it’s fairly open off the tee with generous fairways. The fairways are tree-lined however, they are a ways back. The rough is fairly penalizing and can bury the ball forcing a less-than-ideal approach shot. Memorial only has 19 bunkers that don’t play much of a factor. Most of the bunkers were eliminated during the 2019 renovation.
Memorial has five Par 3’s that are relatively long with the most difficult playing 237 yards (Hole #11). Last year, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average under par (Hole #15).
No. 15 is a short Par 3 that’s proclaimed as the “loudest hole in Texas.” While it only plays 156 yards, it is a fairly tough hole. It has a small green so there’s not a lot of room to land the ball safely. If players do miss right there is a small run-off area but, a miss left can mean trouble as water does come into play.
The length is the main factor here with eight of the ten Par 4’s playing over 440 yards. Out of these eight Par 4’s, two of them are over 500 yards (Holes #1 and #18).
No. 17 is one of the most unique holes on the course. The fairway runs along the retention pond and almost forms an “S” shape. While it is a short Par 4, two precise shots are required to hit the green in regulation. Any approach shot that misses right of the green can mean trouble as it slopes towards the pond.
All three of the Par 5’s are very long and provide a scoring advantage for long players. Like last year, birdie opportunities will be hard to come by and must be taken advantage of.
No. 16 is a long Par 5 that forces players into weighing the risk-reward of going for this tough green in two. Off the tee, players will try to use the downslope to their advantage making their approach shot easier. The green itself is surrounded by water on three sides with no room for error. Even if players hit the green on their approach, the ball can find the water given the false front on the left side.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Driving Distance
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Proximity: 200-225 Yards
Scrambling
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
132 Players will compete in the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park GC this week. Nine of the world’s top 50 players will be in the field.
Scottie Scheffler (+550), has played twice this year finishing T45 at the CJ Cup and T3 at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. At the Houston Open, he’s finished T28/ T32/ T2.
Sam Burns (+1200), has played twice so far this season finishing T7 at the CJ Cup and T30 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. This will be his fourth appearance at the Houston Open. He missed the cut in his debut but finished T7 in the past two years.
Tony Finau (+1600), will make his first start of the PGA Tour season. His last unofficial start was at the President’s Cup. Last year at the Houston Open he missed the cut but before that, he finished T24 in back-to-back years.
Aaron Wise (+1600), has made three starts this year finishing T64/ 6/ T15. He’s made three starts at the Houston Open finishing T32/ T11/ T26.
Previous Winners in the field: Russell Henley (’17), Jim Herman (’16)
Notable Withdraws: Brendon Todd, Vince Whaley, Nate Lashley, Sam Ryder
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses (@ Memorial Park – 2020, 2021):
Maverick McNealy: T20/ T19
Sam Burns: T7/ T7
Adam Long: T11/ T11
Scottie Scheffler: T32/ T2
Aaron Wise: T11/ T26
Sepp Straka: T5/ MC
Denny McCarthy: T38/ T11
Russell Henley: T29/ T7
Scott Piercy: T32/ T19
Donkeys for Courses (@ Memorial Park – 2020, 2021):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Jason Dufner: MC/ MC
Martin Laird: MC/ MC
Sam Ryder: MC/ MC
Stewart Cink: MC/ MC
Jimmy Walker: MC/ MC
Danny Willett: WD/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10) @ Memorial Park
Price: 50-1
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13) @ Memorial Park
Price: 160-1
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14) @ Redstone Golf Course
Price: 60-1
2018: Ian Poulter (-19) @ Redstone Golf Course
Price: 100-1
2017: Russell Henley (-20) @ Redstone Golf Course
Price: 40-1
Previous Winners Recent Form going into the Houston Open:
2021: Jason Kokrak
Recent Form: T54/ MC/ T11/ T15/ MC
2020: Carlos Ortiz
Recent Form: T35/ T48/ MC/ MC/ T46
Picks (Outrights):
Sam Burns (+1400) – Caesars
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Sam ‘Bermuda’ Burns has finished T7 in his last two appearances at Memorial Park GC. Burn’s also seems to love Texas golf as he won the Charles Schwab Challenge and finished runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson last year. He’s played twice so far this season finishing T30 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T7 at the CJ cup.
Burns has everything you’re looking for in an outright this week outside his ball-striking ability. I’m hoping his putting can make up for his sub-par approach play. However, he’s shown that when he does gain strokes in this category he can compete with anyone. Burns’ has also seemed to thrive on these tougher golf courses as well. His distance off the tee should also provide him with an advantage this week. As I mentioned above, if he can gain strokes on approach, he should be in contention come Sunday.
Taylor Montgomery (+2900) – FanDuel
Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units
Taylor Montgomery will make his debut at Memorial Park this week. Despite not laying here before, he’s a great course fit. It feels like he’s so close to a win given his recent performances. In his first five starts of the season, he’s finished 3/ T9/ T15/ T13/ T10.
He’s got the distance off the tee, and his putting has been phenomenal, specifically on Bermudagrass, with the only real downside coming with his iron play. Despite ranking 139th on SG: Approach this year, he does have some upside. If we look deeper into the number’s he’s great from 200+ yards out which they’ll be playing from a lot this week given the length of this course. Montgomery is also 10th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 36th in Par 5 Scoring Average. If he can dial in those irons this week he should have a great shot.
Jason Day (+3300) – BetMGM/ Caesars
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
If I’m not mistaken this is my first time backing Jason Day. While he is a five-time PGA Tour winner, his last victory was back in 20188 at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, he’s seemed to have a resurgence in his game finishing T8, T11, and T21 in his last three starts. Last year at the Houston Open he finished T54 but the year before he placed T7.
The major concern for Day this week is his ability on the green. He currently ranks 108th in SG: Putting. Despite that, he has gained strokes on the green at Memorial Park in his last two appearances. Day also had his best-putting performance of the year at the CJ Cup which is also bermudagrass. His approach play has been the biggest difference from last year. He ranks 6th on Tour and has gained over a stroke in that category in each of his last three starts. While this number may be a little low, this seems like a great time to back given everything I mentioned.
Just Missed: Russell Henley, Adam Long, Denny McCarthy, Davis Riley, Alex Smalley
Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 5):
Scottie Scheffler (+180) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
In all honesty, this is Scottie Scheffler’s tournament to lose. If he can win the Houston Open, he’ll overtake Rory McIlroy as the number-one player in the world. The only issue I have is I just can’t play him outright at that number (+550). So consider this a little “hedge” situation where we can capitalize on him even if he does end up winning.
Last week, he finished T3 at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. In his only other start this season, he finished T45 at the CJ Cup. He’s played at Memorial Park GC twice, placing T32 in 2020 and T2 in 2021. Scheffler’s also been unbelievable in Texas where he went to school finishing 2nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T15 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and winning the WGC-Dell technologies match play event last year.
He has everything you’re looking for this week with his putting being the only real concern. However, as we saw last year plenty of times he doesn’t necessarily need to putt well to have a great finishing position. If he does gain strokes on the green, he should win this event by three to four shots. Given the semi weak field and everything I just mentioned, he seems like he should be able to grab a top-5 finish this week.
Total Risk on Top 5 Placements: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Aaron Wise (+105) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Aaron Wise’s lone PGA Tour win came in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2017-18. This year he’s played well finishing 6th and T15 in his last two starts. In terms of course history, he finished T11 in 2020 and T26 in 2021.
His distance off the tee will certainly give him an advantage this week. Overall, he ranks 85th in SG: Off the Tee this year. His approach play can be worrisome at times but his short game and putting have been fantastic through his first three starts of the season. However, he’s seemed to play well here with his irons gaining strokes on approach in his last two visits to Memorial Park GC. Wise also gained nearly a stroke over the field on approach at the CJ Cup. He’s had success at this course in the past and it seems to suit his game so he should have another great finish this week.
Maverick McNealy (+137) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.37 Units
Maverick McNealy is still in search of his first career PGA Tour victory but based on his recent form, that looks to be just around the corner. He started the season missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship but has rebounded nicely. Since that missed cut, he’s finished T10/ T12/ T18/ T10 in his last four starts on Tour. He’s played at Memorial Park GC twice before in this event finishing T11 and T26. McNealy also has some impressive course history in Texas as well finishing inside the top 40 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Valero Texas Open, and WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last season.
He’s one of the longest hitters off the tee ranking 54th in driving distance on Tour this year. While his approach game and play around the green isn’t near the top of the leaderboard, he’s fantastic with the flat stick. McNealy currently ranks 4th on Tour in SG: Putting. He’s gained strokes on the green in each of the past two years at Memorial. Even more surprising is that he’s gained strokes off the tee and on approach in those previous two starts as well. Given his recent form and great course history, he seems primed to grab his third consecutive top-20 finish at this course.
Just Missed: Joel Dahmen
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Sepp Straka (+110) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
We caught Sepp Straka last year at the Honda Classic where he won his first PGA Tour event. Since that victory, his play has been trending in the right direction. Last week, he did miss the cut at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. In his three other starts this season he’s finished 2/ T45/ T62. He has some decent course history here as well finishing 4th back in 2020.
This year he ranks 82nd in SG: Off the Tee, 57th in SG: Approach, 46th in SG: Putting, and 66th in SG: Tee to Green. He seems to enjoy the bermudagrass gaining strokes on the green at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Tour Championship, and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Last year when he missed the cut at this event it was mainly due to his putting. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore based on his recent play.
Just Missed: Dean Burmester, Wyndham Clark
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Cadence Bank Houston Open: 5.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley is back to talk some NFL action! This week he’s joined by sports betting content creator, Matt Landes! Check out their conversation about sports betting, this wild year in the NFL, and some of their takes on the Week 10 slate of NFL action!
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
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