Cincinnati out-gained SMU 379 to 259 yet win 29-27. They also won the turnover battle but choked a spread winning TD at the end. 14 Penalties to 3 gave SMU a 10 + home field advantage.
Miami’s yards were garbage time vs Duke but they lost their QB earlier in the game. Miami had 8 turnovers. Yikes.
Toledo out-gained Buffalo 438 to 399 yet lost 34-27. A 6-1 turnover ratio killed them. They were up by double digits.
Rice out-gained Louisiana Tech 487 to 373 yet only won 42-41 in overtime. A 3-1 turnover ratio hurt bad.
Northern Illinois out-gained Ohio 377 to 354 yet lost 24-17. Equal turnovers and bad 3rd down got them. Also home field got them 6 penalties to 0.
Texas and Oklahoma State were close in yards but Texas had 14 penalties and Oklahoma state had none! They had a big home field advantage tonight.
Memphis out-gained Tulane 415 to 344 yet lost 38-28. A 4-0 turnover ratio and terrible red zone killed them.
Texas A&M out-gained South Carolina 398 to 286 yet lost 30-24. Equal turnovers and bad red zone efficiency hurt the Aggies. Some of those yards was a garbage drive at the end.
Pittsburgh out-gained Louisville 326 to 312 yet lost 24-10. A 4-1 turnover ratio did them in.
Adding one more and amending the Knicks/Hornets over:
Heat/Blazers under 222 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Blazers have a kushy schedule to start the season and somehow they’re finally playing some defense. Top 10 in DEF EFF and exceptional at limiting second-chance opportunities to their opponents, Portland has started off looking disciplined and stingy on the defensive side of the ball. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant have certainly helped in that regard, too. The Heat are typically good in these tough road spots and they lean on stellar defensive effort to get it done. I have this total ar 217– gotta take an under.
Hornets/Knicks over 226, to win 2.5 units
I don’t see this total out yet anywhere but when it does come out, take it if it’s anything at 232 or less. I have this total set at 240. The Knicks are running faster; Thibs made it clear that’s what they want to do and an aggressive Jalen Brunson only helps. The Hornets run even faster historically on the road and they’ll try to out-pace a more physical Knicks’ team. One hand feeds the other– love points here. This is why a flat-unit model doesn’t work; as handicappers we need to know when to pull the trigger on a bigger play. My disparity is too significant to not play big on this wager. It’s early so we won’t go 3 units or more, but 2.5 units feels right.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only loss the Jazz had this year? Against the piss-poor Rockets in their opener. The Jazz are8 apparently a formidable outfit and the Rockets are not, and this is a good spot for a little early revenge. Conley and Markennen in particular look like a comfortable duo. Jazz roll. This line could go down in favor of Houston so it’s up to you if you want to wait. I’m content with taking it for 1 unit now.
Nuggets -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The up and down Nuggets love to show their bipolar personality but this is a great spot, at home, against the God-awful Lakers to put on a show. One of the reasons why the Lakers just can’t sustain wins is that, despite how bad they are, teams never treat them like a bad team because of Lebron. A motivated Nuggets should easily handle LAL.
Rory McIlroy takes home the CJ Cup and moves to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. This is the first time he’s held this spot since July 2020. He also joins Tiger Woods as the only reigning FedEx Cup Champion to win his season debut.
The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. This is the first of two consecutive events held outside the United States. Next week, the World Wide Technology Championship will be held in Mexico.
The inaugural Butterfield Bermuda Championship was held in 2019, however, it was an alternate event back then. In 2020, this event started to offer 500 FedEx Cup points and became an official event on the Tour.
Port Royal Golf Course has played host to this event since its inauguration. It was founded in 1965 but didn’t open until 1970 under the design of Robert Trent Jones. Through the years, the course had underwent several renovations but, the last major renovation was by Roger Rulewich in 2008 in preparation for hosting the 2009 PGA Grand Slam of Golf.
72-Hole Record: 260, Brendon Todd (2019)
18-Hole Record: 61, Taylor Pendrith (Round 2, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that plays 6,828 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. It’s one of the shortest courses on Tour with the main defense being the wind. This week, accuracy is more important than distance off the tee given the narrow fairways and punishing rough.
The four Par 3’s range between 148 yards and 235 yards. At the 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, only one (No. 3), had a scoring average under par.
No. 16, is one of the most spectacular holes in world golf. Players will have to hit a solid tee shot across the ocean to an elevated green on its own peninsular. The green itself is surrounded by numerous bunkers. As if the hole wasn’t difficult enough the wind coming off the ocean is a major factor to consider.
Only four of the eleven Par 4’s are over 450 yards. No. 10 is the shortest Par 4’s listed at 350 yards with the longest being No. 4, at 458 yards.
No. 18, is a long straight uphill par 4 requiring a precise tee shot onto a tiered fairway littered with bunkers. On their approach. players will have to hit into a raised green that slopes back to front.
The three Par 5’s are No. 2, 7, and 17. None of the Par 5’s are listed over 600 yards. All of the Par 5’s had a scoring average below par at the 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
No. 14, is a challenging Par 4 that emphasizes accuracy over distance off the tee. It’s a slight dogleg left where players will want to try and position themselves along the right side of the fairway to have an easier approach shot in. If players are along the left side, the green may not be completely visible. The green’s slightly elevated providing an additional challenge and slopes severely off the right side towards a bunker.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Driving Accuracy
Par 3 Scoring: 200-250 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Scrambling
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Denny McCarthy (+1400), has played in this event three times before finishing T15/ T4/ T39. He’s been pretty active to start the 2022-23 PGA Tour season playing in four events. During that span, he has three top-40 finishes and has only missed one cut (Shriners).
Thomas Detry (+1800), made his debut at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last year finishing T22. He’s been in great form recently to start the season with two top-12 finishes in three events.
Adrian Meronk (+1800), is 61st in the OWGR and normally plays on the DP (European) Tour where he’s 8th in the rankings. Last year, he played in two PGA Tour events finishing T42 at the Open and missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. This will be his first PGA Tour event of the 2022-23 season.
Mark Hubbard (+2500), has played in this event twice before finishing T41 and T22. Last week at the ZoZo Championship, he struggled finishing 66th in a 78-player field. However, before that he finished T28/ T5/ T21 in the three other events he competed in during the 2022-23 PGA Tour season.
Seamus Power (+2500), as played in this event three times before finishing T31/ T37/ T12. He’s played in three events to start the season, missing the cut once and finishing T30 and T49 in the other two events.
Previous Winners in the field: Brian Gay (2020)
Notable Withdraws: Vince Whaley, Anders Albertson, Davis Thompson, Boo Weekley, Peter Malnati
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses (’19/ ’20/ ’21):
Brian Gay: T3/ 1/ T12
Russell Knox: T11/ T16/ T12
David Hearn: T8/ T8/ T30
Kramer Hickok: T15/ T8/ T30
Denny McCarthy: T15/ T4/ T39
Peter Malnati: T21/ T21/ T7
Scott Piercy: T14/ T14/ –
Chesson Hadley: T16/ T16/ –
Donkeys for Courses (’19/ ’20/ ’21):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Michael Kim: MC/ MC/ MC
Tommy Gainey: MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Sims: MC/ MC/ MC
Charley Hoffman: MC/ MC/ –
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Lucas Herbert (-15)
Price: 80-1
2020: Brian Gay (-15)
Price: 200-1
2019: Brendon Todd (-24)
Price: 100-1
Picks (Outrights):
Patrick Rodgers (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Callum Tarren (+5500) – Bet365
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Chesson Hadley (+6000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Sam Ryder (+7000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Kevin Yu (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Scott Piercy (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Austin Smotherman (+10000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Chad Ramey (+13000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Mark Hubbard (+140) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Justin Lower (+160) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Nick Hardy (+170) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 3.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
C.T. Pan (+125) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: 5.03 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Getting some early picks in. If we get a 2-1 night by winning this Warriors 1H bet, it’ll feel lucky. Just one of those nights where it feels like our takes are off. Also– Warriors barely played Curry in the 1H (I called that shit coming on the BetUS show) and these refs are calling a shit ton of dumb fouls on Golden State. Feels shady. Anyway–
Hornets/Knicks anything over 232, to win 2 units
I don’t see this total out yet anywhere but when it does come out, take it if it’s anything at 232 or less. I have this total set at 240. The Knicks are running faster; Thibs made it clear that’s what they want to do and an aggressive Jalen Brunson only helps. The Hornets run even faster historically on the road and they’ll try to out-pace a more physical Knicks’ team. One hand feeds the other– love points here.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only loss the Jazz had this year? Against the piss-poor Rockets in their opener. The Jazz are8 apparently a formidable outfit and the Rockets are not, and this is a good spot for a little early revenge. Conley and Markennen in particular look like a comfortable duo. Jazz roll. This line could go down in favor of Houston so it’s up to you if you want to wait. I’m content with taking it for 1 unit now.
Nuggets -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The up and down Nuggets love to show their bipolar personality but this is a great spot, at home, against the God-awful Lakers to put on a show. One of the reasons why the Lakers just can’t sustain wins is that, despite how bad they are, teams never treat them like a bad team because of Lebron. A motivated Nuggets should easily handle LAL.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley goes over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for the weekend slate! Chris has a sensational week in betting, going 14-5 for +9 units in NBA and 8-3 for +7.55 units in NFL! He’ll look to keep it rollin’ in NFL Week 8 and beyond!
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
UCF +1 (-105), to win 1 unit I trust Guz Malzahn to make things right at home in what should be a raucous environment. Cincy is significantly less talented and has looked really poor in spots. The same could be said for UCF but they tripped last weekend in anticipation of this contest and I think they take care of business this go-round. UCF’s offense, which is 7th in the nation in yards per game, will be the difference.
Penn State +15.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
CJ Stroud has made some egregious mistakes lately and I don’t love that heading into Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions always play Ohio State hard and that’s especially true at home. I think it’s possible this line may fall before kickoff so let’s take it over 2 TDs now. Personally, I think the Buckeyes’ offense is overrated. Of course they’re really good; but they’re not historic.
Auburn +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is falling and falling so let’s take advantage of it while we can. Auburn is an explosive offense, top 5 in CFB in big plays, and all Arkansas does is ALLOW big plays to opposing offenses. At home and with historic ATS trends on their side, this feels like a FG game.
Coming off a profitable 5-3 Week 8, we turn the page to Week 9. I’ve locked in 2 plays so far, one for Thursday and one for Friday. I will start rolling out plays for Saturday in the coming days.
*CFB(1u): Louisiana/Southern Miss UNDER 43.5–Thursday 6:30 PM CT
Louisiana put up 38 points last week against a bottom 5 defense in College Football(Arkansas State), but in their prior 4 games, the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged less than 20 PPG. This is a major step up in competition facing a Southern Miss defense that has allowed just 20 PPG in Sun Belt play and held up well vs Miami and Tulane. I specifically like Southern Miss’s front 7; they’ve recorded 11 sacks in their three Sun Belt games and have proven to be stout against the run by G5 standards. Secondary play is not the strength of this Golden Eagles defense, but I’m not sure how much Louisiana can take advantage. QB Ben Wooldridge has pretty mediocre numbers(62%, 7.2 Y/A) and is still a 1st year starter. He’s played fine each of the past 2 weeks(including on the road at Marshall), but this is assuredly the toughest Front 7 he’ll have gone up against since taking over the starting role.
For as good as Southern Miss’ defense is, the offense is atrocious(less than 17 PPG in Sun Belt play). After losing QB Ty Keyes to a season ending injury early in the season, the Golden Eagles are now relying on QB2 Zach Wilcke to run the offense. Wilcke is throwing for just 6.5 Y/A and, more importantly, has really started to struggle with turnovers, throwing 7 INT’s over USM’s last 3 games. Now, he must face a Louisiana defense that has consistently held opposing QB’s to under 50% completion. The approach from Southern Miss in this game will be to pound the rock with bellcow RB Frank Gore Jr and rely on their defense for a win. Even with that approach, Gore Jr is still under 5 YPC on the season and will have a tough time breaking off chunk runs on this Louisiana defense that is particularly stout at the second level.
A major consideration in this play is pace; Louisiana runs at a below average pace, while Southern Miss runs at one of the slowest paces in CFB. This is a “first to 20 wins” type of game, and any total at or above 41 presents a good opportunity to play the Under. I would lean towards Louisiana winning this game, but I think Southern Miss can extend drives just well enough and force some mistakes from a 1st year starting QB. Under is the best way to play this game.
*CFB(1u): BYU -3 vs East Carolina–Friday 7 PM CT
BYU has endured a rough stretch, losing their last 3 games to Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Liberty. The Liberty loss this past weekend was particularly lopsided, but now, the Cougars return back home to one of the tougher places to play in the country. East Carolina is high-and-mighty after an upset win over UCF(we were on the Pirates), but now, they must travel across the country to play a superior talent roster.
While BYU’s defense has let them down recently(we’ll get to that in a sec), the offense has chugged along fine. QB Jaren Hall holds a TD:INT ratio north of 6:1 and should enjoy a career day against this ECU secondary. ECU has allowed more than 9 Y/A to Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, and Memphis already this year; hell, even Campbell moved the ball well through the air. This is far and away the best WR unit the Pirates will have seen this year, creating an absolute mismatch in the passing game on that side of the ball. BYU RB Chris Brooks has over-performed my expectations this year(6 YPC), and a lot of that can be credited to his stout offensive line. I’ve been impressed with ECU’s ability to get pressure on the QB this year, but this is a major step up in competition up front that I don’t think ECU is ready for.
BYU’s defense has stunk the last 3 weeks. However, some context is needed. Notre Dame really just isolated the nation’s best TE, Michael Mayer, in the passing game, a strategy BYU had no answers for. Arkansas is clearly a superior team with one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the country. Liberty is led by Hugh Freeze, one of the best offensive minds in College Football. There are things to like about ECU’s offense(hell, I backed them the last 2 weeks), but this is BYU’s most favorable matchup in about a month. There’s no doubt that BYU must improve in stopping the run, because ECU RB Keaton Mitchell(6.8 YPC) is truly a game changing back. However, with the amount of explosive plays/points I expect BYU to be able to put up, this game will fall on the arm of QB Holton Ahlers. Ahlers is a 5th year starter that has completed 70% of his passes here in his senior year, but he has clearly benefited from some easy matchups as well as having a dynamic run game. I still feel pretty good about BYU’s secondary; we have to remember, they held Baylor QB Blake Shapen to just 4.9 Y/A earlier this season. ECU’s offense scored just 9 points in their only other tough road game this season @ Tulane; I think the Cougars are plenty capable of stepping up in this spot.
The Over is not a bad look, but given we’ve already seen it steamed up 4 points from open, I’ll hold off. BYU TT OVER is another good look if you aren’t sold on BYU’s defense, but I really think we see the Cougars put it all together here. It can’t be stated how hard of a spot this is for ECU having to travel cross-country and play in altitude on a short week. I think BYU is able to score with ease, take ECU’s offense out of their game plan, and win this game comfortably.
This one hurts. Chris Paul was one of my favorite players growing up, but his spiral is apparent. CP3 started the ’21-22 season(Oct-Feb16) averaging 14.9 PPG, on 11.5 attempts good for .487 FG% with a .330 3PT%. Paul had a shooting hand injury his in mid-February and never returned to form(also may have had a hamstring injury, that was a bit unclear but wildly speculated). CP3 was out roughly one calendar month. In his 7 regular season game return, he averaged 13.1 PPG on 9.9 attempts good for .551 FG% with a .176 3PT%(FG went up because he took less 3’s and more inside shots).
He was in line with his career True Shooting % average and down about 2 full attempts from career in ’21-22. This season in 3 games, (yes it is early but his game seems to have fallen off a cliff) his TS% is .386% and he is down almost 4 attempts a game. Not to mention he got benched.
This season, CP3 is 1/11 from deep. averaging 7.7 ppg. 6,10,7 are his point totals by game. His 10 point game, he had 8 points in regulation and 2 in OT. In regulation he is averaging 7 points good for 291 FG%. Paul’s per36 has him at 8.4 PPG. He just can’t score effectively anymore.
CP3 is still in the upper echelon of passers in the association (10.7 APG). His per36 is second best of his career. Monty Williams might just lean into him setting up passes for Booker at this point who is off to an insanely hot start (almost .100 better this year compared to last in both FG% and TS%). That will cool off mostly because he is shoot .529 % from deep, but I don’t think that changes vs the Warriors.
Warriors have given up the following to opposing starting *point guards this season:
Westbrook – 19 (shot .583% FG and as much hate as Russ gets he is still more athletic and better at getting to the rim than CP3, he just can’t shoot with any range)
Beverley – 3 (20% on 5 attempts)
KCP – 17 (shot 50% on 14 attempts, CP3 won’t get 14 attempts)
Fox – 26 (lowest total of the season on 20 attempts, high tempo game)
Take CP3 Under 13.5 Points -125 1 Unit (BetMGM) – I am already seeing this at 12.5 on other books. (Fanduel) You probably won’t get 13.5 again if he goes under again.
The Wizards are one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA in the 1Q, they’re at home, they’re trying to run the floor at a faster pace and I don’t think the Pistons will be able to slow them down. They have a better roster and a sneaky good defense so far and I think they’ll gain an early margin in this contest. Detroit likes to claw their way back into games so just going with this 1Q line.
Mavs -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Tough road game for the Mavs but they have 3 days of rest in between their last game and this one and if I was a betting man (oh wait, I am), I’d wager on Zion not playing today after suffering a hip contusion in his last contest. Brandon Ingram will also be out of this one, he’s under concussion protocol, while we witnessed the full potential of Christian Wood and a revamped Mavericks team last Saturday when they smashed the Grizzlies. The Pelicans are a growing team and they’re awesome when fully healthy but this ain’t it. Taking the Mavericks to get a win by margin on the road.
Warriors 1H ML (+115), to win 1.15 units
The Warriors are running the floor at a faster pace this season and they’re scoring an outlandish 67 ppg in the first half, easily #1 in the NBA. The Suns will experience some regression this year IMO and if they would have faced this well-oiled Warriors team in the playoffs last year, I think they would have been cooked real quick. The Warriors just match up well against a small Phoenix lineup that doesn’t have the same athleticism or energy that Golden State can bring on a game to game basis. Warriors get the early lead; avoiding full game.
