Week 9 CFB Plays(Part 2)

By

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October 28, 2022

I’ve released 6 CFB plays already and am back today with 4 more. Coming off a 5-3 Week 8, let’s break out this weekend!

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*CFB(1u): Notre Dame 1H +1 @ Syracuse–Saturday 11 AM CT

This is a bad spot for Syracuse coming off of last week’s heartbreaking loss at Clemson. Getting yourself up off the mat after a game like that is tough, and that’s especially true when you’re facing off with a physical team that is strong in the trenches.

Has Notre Dame been far too inconsistent this year? Yes. With that said, there is a lot to like about this football team. Defensively, they are quite good at all 3 levels. Getting pressure on the QB is a strength of this Notre Dame defense, and I expect that to be a big part of why they’re able to get stops in this matchup. Syracuse allowed 5 sacks against Clemson and 6 sacks vs Virginia earlier this season. I also think the Irish are quite solid within their back 7, specifically at that second level going up against the run. We know both QB Garrett Schrader and RB Sean Tucker are big factors in the run game, but I think Syracuse will have a tough time breaking much off with my expectation that they get beat up front. Perhaps Schrader can move the chains with his legs, but we’ve started to see him regress as a passer. He threw for just 6.4 Y/A against Clemson last week, and I have a tough time seeing him create explosive plays on this Irish defense.

The one thing I like about Syracuse’s defense is their ability to limit explosive plays over the top. However, do they really have a guy on that defense to account for Michael Mayer, the best TE in the nation? I expect that matchup to get exploited early and often. Additionally, I think Syracuse’s front 7 is overmatched going up against a physical Notre Dame OL. Notre Dame’s RB’s aren’t great, but I think they’re plenty solid enough to establish a run game in this matchup.

I want NO PART of this 2nd Half. Closing out games on the road is tough, and that’s especially true facing a team in Syracuse who has a comeback win over Purdue under their belt. With that said, early on, this road environment doesn’t scare me. Notre Dame has fared well on the road this year, and with their ability in the trenches, I expect them to come out fast and take a lead into the half.

*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Iowa State OVER 56.5–Saturday 11 AM CT

Throwing out a standard total in an Oklahoma game is a bold move by the oddsmakers. Oklahoma Overs have been money for us this year(Both TCU and Kansas games cashed early in the 3Q), and I’m going right back to the well with it for many of the same reasons.

I believe this Oklahoma defense has flaws that are going to take a lot more than a BYE Week to fix. Their pass rush has vanished in Big12 play, and blown assignments in the Back 7 have led to teams moving the ball at will against this defense. Even in their bounce back win against Kansas, they still allowed 42 points and over 9 Y/A to backup QB Jason Bean. This Iowa State offense has left a lot to be desired this year(mostly in the run game), but we saw them take a step forward in their last game. QB Hunter Dekkers threw for over 9 Y/A against Texas, a defense that hasn’t been beaten over the top in any other game; if not for 2 red zone turnovers, Iowa State very well may have gotten into the 30’s in that game. Why would I not expect that to carry over against an Oklahoma defense that has allowed over 9 Y/A each of the past 3 weeks?

For as poor as the Sooners defense is, they have a Top 5-10 offense in the country when Dillon Gabriel is healthy. Gabriel has thrown for over 9 Y/A this year, and RB Eric Gray is over 7 YPC running behind an offensive line that has been quite impressive. Iowa State is a team led by their defense, but I still think their vulnerable in this type of matchup. Both Baylor and Kansas State had no problem beating this secondary over the top, and their pass rush has been underwhelming this year. I think, however, my trust in Oklahoma’s offense has much more to do with their acumen. Consider this: In a similar type of matchup against Kansas State’s defense, they put up 550 yards of total offense and probably left over 100 yards on the field with missed open receivers. When they’re at full strength, it’s hard to see this offense not getting into the 30’s.

A major consideration in this play is pace. Oklahoma runs at a maniacally fast tempo under Jeff Lebby, and we’ve seen Iowa State increase their tempo considerably this year. I think this game gets played in the 60’s.

*CFB(1u): Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 46–Saturday 3 PM CT

This play really checks all the boxes I look for when betting Unders. First off, both teams run at a considerably slow tempo, and each coach has shown he’s willing to run a lot of clock down the stretch of tight games. Perhaps more importantly, these are two pretty stagnant offenses, and it just so happens that each team’s strength defensively is limiting explosiveness through the air. Both of these QB’s have had a tough time finishing drives, and that shows when you consider each has thrown more INT’s than TD’s.

Missouri is averaging just 17.5 PPG in SEC play this year, and I have zero worries about going up against QB Brady Cook. The Tigers’ run game has been solid, however, and this is a South Carolina defense you can establish the run on. Expect long drives from Mizzou with a heavy ground attack.

QB Spencer Rattler is a solid player, but he lacks much difference-making talent around him. South Carolina may have put up 30 last week against Texas A&M, but 14 of those points can be attributed to defense/special teams; the Cocks put up just 286 yards of total offense. MarShawn Lloyd has emerged as a solid RB option for South Carolina, but I don’t view him as a threat to break off a ton of chunk plays.

The theme of this game will be long drives, poor red zone execution, and ultimately, a low-scoring game.

*CFB(1u): Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 61–Saturday 6 PM CT

I don’t particularly understand why this total has dropped throughout the week. Tennessee is an incredibly fast-paced team that plays a ton of high-possession games, and their bigger games against Florida and Alabama both went sailing over the total.

The matchup people are talking about is Kentucky’s OL going up against Tennessee’s pass rush. While Kentucky’s OL has been poor this year, it’s not unfathomable to think they have improved coming off the BYE Week. Hell, just look at how far LSU’s OL has come this year. Additionally, I would say it’s quite impressive that Will Levis has thrown for 10 Y/A this year despite being under immense pressure. I’ve had my doubts about Levis, but 10 Y/A is 10 Y/A. This Tennessee back 7 is notorious for allowing explosive plays, and I expect Levis to thrive in that department in this matchup. People also assume that Tennessee’s run defense is going to dominate this game. I’m not saying Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr will run wild, but this is a guy who was over 1200 yards and 6 YPC in the SEC last year, making him perhaps the most underrated back in the country.

Tennessee’s offense is an absolute juggernaut. QB Hendon Hooker is hovering around the 11 Y/A attempt mark, the ground attack has proven to be complementary to what they do through the air, and they’ve had a ton of WR’s start to step up as game-changing pieces. Kentucky is a defensive-minded and defensive-coached team, but how much did that matter last year when the Vols hung up 45 in Lexington? I don’t like how many explosive runs this ‘Cats defense has yielded, and while the secondary is solid, it’s going to take a lot more than “solid” or even “good” to get stops against Tennessee’s balanced attack. Tennessee hung up 52 on ALABAMA; expecting them to score in the upper-30’s is very reasonable.

I would lean towards Kentucky over the full game because I think their offense is plenty capable of answering back with explosive games of their own. However, Tennessee is a high-variance team, and playing sides in their games is a risky proposition. This is an Over team through and through, and I think that’s once again the correct way to approach this.

NBA Premiums, 10.28

By

Chris R. Farley

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October 28, 2022

Quick email, on the run this morning:

Celtics -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

Tough road spot for the Cavs and they’re without Garland today. Great response spot for an elite Celtics team after a loss.

Knicks +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units

I love the way the Knicks are playing and they’re built to play competitively against a slower paced Bucks’ team. Bucks are due for a stumble, too.

Lakers/T-Wolves under 227.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

Despite LAL’s woes they’re still playing pretty good defense and their twin towers should be somewhat limited with Lebron and AD on the court.

Blazers -5 (-110), to win 1 unit

A resurgent Anfernee Simons and a feisty Blazers’ team will be just fine without Lillard today, in my opinion. Portland’s schedule is also really kushy, someone wanted them to win early, while the Rockets are on a horrific road trip.

Week 9 CFB Plays(Part 1)

By

Michael Fordham

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October 27, 2022

Coming off a 5-3 week, all eyes are ahead on this Week 9 slate. I’ve already released 2 weeknight plays(one for tonight) and am back with 4 plays for this Saturday slate. I expect to have more for you this evening/tomorrow morning as this very well could be my highest volume card of the season.

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*CFB(1u): Minnesota -14 vs Rutgers–Saturday 1:30 PM CT

Minnesota has lost its last 3 games, but I do think some context is needed. The Purdue loss at home was a poor performance without a doubt, but the Gophers were going toe-to-toe with Illinois(arguably the best defense in CFB) until QB Tanner Morgan suffered a head injury and had to leave the game. Backup Athan Kaliakmanis is clearly not ready to run this offense, as demonstrated in last week’s loss at Penn State. With Morgan expected back this week, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Gophers.

Morgan and OC Kirk Ciarrocca simply work well together. Morgan threw for over 10 Y/A in 2019 under Ciarrocca, leading the Gophers to a historic 11-win season. We saw Morgan regress these past 2 years under Mike Sanford, but with the old system back in place, Morgan has looked much like his 2019 self this season(9.4 Y/A). When you pair Morgan’s threat as a passer with a borderline elite RB room led by Mo Ibrahim(5.9 YPC), I think Minnesota’s best football lays ahead. Rutgers is clearly a team led by their defense, but at this point in the Greg Schiano rebuild, I don’t see them as physical enough up front to go toe-to-toe with a Minnesota OL that has exceeded my expectations. Rutgers has a pretty good secondary, but when the threat of the vertical pass is there(think Ohio State), their run defense has slipped up.

Rutgers’ offense is absolutely putrid. The Scarlet Knights rank in the bottom 10 in the country in yards/play, and quite frankly, I don’t like any aspect of this matchup going up against Minnesota’s defense. Much like the DL, I don’t think Rutgers’ OL is to a point where they can be trusted against this Minnesota front 7. Rutgers’ run game has proven to be extremely mediocre, and Greg Schiano has played a version of “QB Roulette” this season. We saw Noah Vedral deliver a win for Rutgers last week, so we can expect to see Schiano run it back with the senior this week. That would be best case scenario given Vedral clearly has the lowest ceiling in the Rutgers QB room and has thrown for just 6.2 Y/A throughout his career. Minnesota’s secondary has done a good job of limiting explosive plays through the air, so I won’t expect that to change in what’s a very favorable matchup.

Minnesota has had a rough October, but if you would’ve told me a few weeks ago I could get the Gophers at this number against a “low ceiling” team with issues in the trenches, I would’ve raced to the window. Getting Morgan back completely changes the dynamics of this matchup; I see something along the lines of a 35-13 Minnesota win, making this number far too short.

*CFB(1u): Cal +17 vs Oregon–Saturday 2:30 PM CT

As you might expect with a 17-point spread, the favorite is going to have clear matchups advantages. If you want to have success betting underdogs, get used to that. For a multitude of reasons, I view this as a “sell high” spot on Oregon.

Before we get into the matchups, I want to dig into some of the intangibles of this game. First, are we sure Oregon HC Dan Lanning deserves this much benefit of the doubt as a first-year HC? Coming off of last week’s win vs UCLA, this is a total “flat spot” for the Ducks; has Lanning proven he’ll have his team ready in these sorts of spots? Secondly, public sentiment is incredibly high on Oregon at the moment, which has pushed this line up from the 14.5 point open. You can never assume that any team can roll the ball out and win by 3 TD’s every week, especially when that team still has quite a few question marks defensively. Let’s not forget, they allowed 41 points to a mediocre Washington State offense on the road earlier in the year. The Ducks are struggling to get pressure on the QB and are allowing far too many explosive plays on the ground. While the consistency is not where you’d like it, Cal RB Jaydn Ott clearly has the explosiveness to take advantage of this Oregon run defense; he ran for 274 yards and 3 TD’s against Arizona earlier in the year.

Cal is a pretty mediocre team across the board, but there is reason to believe they will step up well in this spot. In the Golden Bears’ two toughest games this year(@ Notre Dame, vs Washington), they played each to a 7-point loss. For as untrustworthy as Justin Wilcox is as a favorite, Justin Wilcox as an underdog is a totally different animal. I like that this is Cal’s 2nd straight home game, and I like the identity of their team is stopping the run, something that is clearly a must facing off against Oregon. If Cal can put this game on the arm of Oregon QB Bo Nix… I like our chances.

Again, with a spread this big, there are going to be clear matchup advantages for the favorite. With that said, I HATE the spot for Oregon and am not as sold that they are a dominant force and/or a complete football team. I like Cal to keep this game close.

*CFB(1u): Kansas State ML(-120) vs Oklahoma State–Saturday 2:30 PM CT

Both teams come limping into this matchup at less than 100%, but clearly Oklahoma State is the more injured team. The Cowboys were without 5 key contributors against Texas last week, had a few more guys go down in that game, and are playing with a hurt QB in Spencer Sanders. K-State QB Adrian Martinez left last week’s game for the Wildcats, and I am making this play with the expectation that Martinez won’t play. With that said, K-State has clear matchup advantages across the board that make them a “play on” in a pick-em type of game.

Kansas State’s run game is light years ahead of Oklahoma State’s. K-State RB Deuce Vaughn(5.6 YPC) is one of the most slippery backs in the country, while Oklahoma State’s main RB has run for just 3.7 YPC this year. Mike Gundy has some younger guys with more explosiveness that he refuses to play more, and I think those moves will only be made after a loss. I would also give Kansas State the slight edge in the trenches given we’ve seen their pass rush improve in recent weeks while Oklahoma State’s OL has started to show cracks in protecting Sanders(7 sacks last 3 weeks). Sanders is an experienced player that is tough as nails, but he has also yet to throw for more than 7 Y/A on a Big12 opponent this season. When you combine the lack of explosiveness the Cowboys are getting out of their run game, I really don’t think as highly of their offense as many.

Oklahoma State is EXTREMELY fortunate to be 6-1 at this point. They have been out gained in 3 of their 4 Big12 games, and on average, they are getting out gained by over 70 yards in conference play. In addition to their offensive limitations, I am still not sold on their secondary. K-State QB Will Howard proved plenty capable of running this offense last week(11.3 Y/A), and with a full week to prepare and a slew of experienced WR’s to work with, I think this is a weakness that the Wildcats can exploit.

Oklahoma State is experiencing the gauntlet that is the Big12 schedule. With their (lack of) health, with this being their 2nd road game in 3 weeks, and with K-State’s matchup advantages across the board, I expect the Wildcats to get the job done regardless of who plays QB.

*CFB(1u): Baylor +2.5 @ Texas Tech–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

This is a true “contrast in styles” type of game. Some might call it “aggressive(Texas Tech) vs conservative(Baylor)”… I would call it “Reckless vs Smart”. Give Texas Tech credit for bringing a winning record into the latter portion of the season, but it’s clear to me that the formula first year HC Joey Maguire has chosen to deploy is not sustainable over time.

In their 4 Big12 games, Texas Tech has gone for it 25(!) times on 4th down. When it worked against Texas and West Virginia, it worked in a big way. When it didn’t work at Oklahoma State, it allowed the Cowboys to win by double digits despite TTU out gaining OSU by nearly 100 yards. Part of the reason Joey Maguire feels the need to go for it is because his offense lacks the ability to create explosive plays(bottom 30 in yards/play this season). We aren’t exactly sure who will play QB for the Red Raiders this week now that Tyler Shough is back healthy, but in this Air Raid system, don’t expect either QB to throw for over 7 Y/A. Baylor has limited explosive plays through the air well this year and have good players at the second-level, meaning Texas Tech is playing right into Baylor’s hand with their Air Raid style.

On the other hand, Baylor QB Blake Shapen does have the ability to create explosive plays(9.4 Y/A in Big12 play this season). Shapen didn’t look great in his first game back from injury last week, but he’s proven enough to me where I feel comfortable saying Baylor has the QB advantage here. Baylor’s run game is not as explosive as it was a year ago, but they have a slew of high-floor RB’s that should be able to establish the run in this matchup. I’ll give Tech’s defense credit; they have been pretty solid across the board this year. However, I think they are still vulnerable against a true vertical passer, and their offensive philosophy(which leaves the opponent short fields) is sometimes their own worst enemy.

This a total coaching mismatch in my opinion, and I think it proves to be the difference in the game. Baylor wins a close win in Lubbock.

Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Thursday, October 27th

By

Nick Hub

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October 27, 2022

We took a small step back last week going 4-5 but have been solid this season going 39-27 in College Football this season! We look to bounce back and have another big weekend starting tonight! See below for tonight’s free play! Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The Hokies of VA Tech travel south to take on the NC State Wolfpack tonight at Carter-Finley Stadium. Virginia Tech is 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS and 1-6 O/U while the Wolfpack come in 5-2 U, 2-5 ATS and 3-4 O/U. This game sets up to be a slower paced game with VA Tech ranking 6th in the ACC in tempo and NC St ranking 12th in the ACC. Both teams have also struggled on offense in conference play ranking 12th and 14th in YPP with just over 4 yards per play and they will be going up against the 12th and 19th ranked defenses in the nation in success rate. The Hokies have been playing defenses that average giving up 28.6 PPG and are only scoring 19.1 PPG against them. Enter the NC St defense who has only been giving up 16.9 PPG this season and that has been against teams averaging 27.5 points per game. We may not see many, if any, big plays tonight as these teams rank 123rd and 130th in the nation with plays of 30 yards or more and both offenses struggle to score in the red zone, scoring TDs in just 61% and 50% of their RZ possessions this season (75th and 110th). We have a low total for this one but she’s low for a reason. I have a final score of 24-10 in favor of the Wolfpack. Take Under 39.5

WHITE HOT in the NBA- Premiums, 10.27

By

Chris R. Farley

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October 27, 2022

Starting off hot in any given sport is tough to do with early-season variance but you won’t see any complaints from this guy. A 19-7 and nearly +14 unit start is what dreams are made of. We’ll only settle in and get better as the season progresses so this is a great sign.

Some obvious plays today but not a ton of value overall. Proceeding with caution but pulling the trigger on two wagers:

Grizzlies/Kings over 236 (-110), to win 1 unit

The only thing that makes this result in an under is pure human variance, and that’s why data-dorks won’t ever win consistently long term in NBA betting. Predicting the human element is what we do best and it’s what models and other data points can’t account for. Rant over. Anyway, neither of these teams are playing any defense thus far, Memphis is actually last place in DEF EFF, and a lot of that is because Jaren Jackson Jr. will be OUT until Nov/Dec. He was a force in the paint and Memphis will miss him, but that only opens things for a Kings’ squad that’s already running at the 4th fastest pace in the association. Oh yea, and they’re also bottom third in DEF EFF. This sets up as another game where neither team will care to play defense– Memphis is too physical for the Kings and this isn’t an important spot for the Grizz. We’ll take the over for a light 1 unit.

Warriors 1H TT over 59.5 (-115), to win 1 unit

All the Warriors do is boat-race teams in the first two quarters and I think they’ll come out on fire against Miami at home. The Heat just played in a tough, physical game last night against Portland and this is another rough road spot. The Warriors are coming off a fiery loss against the Suns and they’ll look to reorient tonight in a comfortable spot. The Heat’s defense may step up eventually but I love the Warriors to come out on fire and to score over 60 points in the first half. They’re averaging 67 ppg thru the first 24 minutes.

Podcast 72 – 22 – Happy Halloween with Brad Powers – Bad Beats & Good Treats – NFL Week 8 Plays – College Football Week 9 – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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October 27, 2022

We have a great show for you today that should SCARE THE DAYLIGHTS out of the books! Brad Powers @BradPowers7 comes on to break down College Football Week 9! First, Kiev talks about some NFL week 8 going over the full slate of games with some leans and some plays! Then, Brad comes on and the guys talk about the scariest scenario for the college football playoff committee. Next, Brad and Kiev discuss some of their spookiest bad beats and some of their tastiest good treats! Then, the guys get into the biggest games in college football with some big leans and Free Plays with some slight disagreement. Finally, Kiev talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

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NFL Week 8 Betting Spots

By

Kiev O'Neil

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October 27, 2022

Let Down Spots:

Commies at the Colts after beating the Packers might be one.
Panthers at the Falcons after beating Tampa is one for sure.
Giants at Seattle is one after winning again as a dog.
Seahawks might be in the same boat letting down after the Chargers win.

Get Up Spots:

Tampa hosting the Ravens is one for sure.
Packers at the Bills is one.
Browns hosting the Bengals is a big spot for them.
Both Saints and Raiders playing each other.

Look Ahead Spots:

Titans could be looking past the Texans to the Chiefs.

NHL Preview & Picks – October 27th, 2022

By

Patrick Gates

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October 26, 2022

We have a massive slate tonight with ten games taking place across the NHL. I didn’t have any plays yesterday so today’s card will be slightly larger than normal. As always, I’m keeping it light for the first few weeks until we can fully analyze these teams.

Game Previews:

Detroit Red Wings (+190) @ Boston Bruins (-225)

Detroit’s had a strong start to the year but, have lost three of their last four games. They’ll look to turn things around against a strong opponent.

The Boston Bruins are red hot right now despite missing some of their core guys. Brad Marchand has returned to the ice and it looks like they’ll get him back sooner than expected. Boston’s unbeaten at home and 6-1 overall with their only loss coming in Ottawa.

DET: Ville Husso (expected)

BOS: Jeremy Swayman (expected)

Florida Panthers (-200) @ Philadelphia Flyers (+170)

The Panthers have started the season 4-2-1. In their last game, they lost to Chicago 4-2 on the road. They’ve been able to generate a ton of offense ranking 5th in xG% but have been unable to capitalize on their chances ranking 26th in Shooting %.

Philadelphia has had a surprising start going 4-2 under new head coach John Tortorella. They haven’t been able to generate a ton of offense but have gotten some great goaltending from Carter Hart who ranks 3rd in GSAx.

FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (expected)

PHI: Carter Hart (expected)

Montreal Canadiens (+140) @ Buffalo Sabres (-165)

Montreal currently sits at the bottom of the Atlantic Division with a 3-4 record. They’ve been above average defensively but have struggled to find the back of the net ranking 26th in GF/G.

Buffalo’s coming off a west coast road trip where they went 3-1 defeating the Flames, Oilers, and Canucks. They currently rank 2nd in GFPG and 3rd in GA/G. On top of that Craig Anderson and Eric Comrie have provided some above-average goaltending.

MTL: Jake Allen (expected)

BUF: Eric Comrie (expected)

Minnesota Wild (-120) @ Ottawa Senators (+100)

Minnesota has had a lackluster start to the year with a 2-3-1 record. They rank 6th in GF/G but dead last in the league in GA/G. Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t been great either with a 5.24 GAA through three starts.

Ottawa’s on a four-game win streak after dropping their first two games. All four of those games they won were at home and the two they lost were on the road. During that span, they’ve averaged over five goals for and less than three goals against.

MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury (expected)

OTT: Anton Forsberg (expected)

St. Louis Blues (+135) @ Nashville Predators (-155)

St. Louis is coming off a game against the Edmonton Oilers last night (Wednesday). They haven’t had the same offensive production as last year but have been fantastic defensively ranking 4th in GA/G.

Nashville is currently 7th in the Central Division with a 2-4-1 record. They haven’t been great in any area but more specifically on offense. Juuse Saros also hasn’t looked like a Vezina Finalist through four games with a GAA above 3.00.

STL: Thomas Greiss (expected)

NSH: Juuse Saros (expected)

Washington Capitals (+100) @ Dallas Stars (-120)

The Capitals enter this matchup on a two-game win streak knocking off the Kings and Devils. They’ll be playing their second game of a four-game road trip. Washington hasn’t been able to produce offensively but ranks 25th in GA/G.

Dallas has had a strong start to the season anchored by Jake Oettinger who has a 1.25 GAA and .959 SV%. They’ve also been great offensively ranking 7th in GF/G. However, they’re on a bit of a cold streak dropping their last two games.

WSH: Darcy Kuemper (expected)

DAL: Jake Oettinger (expected)

Edmonton Oilers (-210) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+180)

Edmonton’s coming off a game against the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday night. They’ve looked like a classic Oilers team so far with a solid offensive and lackluster defense. New goaltender Jack Campbell hasn’t been great either with a 3.61 GAA.

Just like the Flyers, the Blackhawks have had a surprising start to the season going 4-2, and are undefeated at home. They rank in the middle of the pack for GF/G and GA/G. Chicago doesn’t generate a ton of offensive scoring chances but have been great at capitalizing on the ones they do.

EDM: Jack Campbell (expected)

CHI: Alex Stalock (expected)

Vancouver Canucks (+105) @ Seattle Kraken (-125)

The Canucks are winless to start the year going 0-5-2. They’ve blown leads in nearly all of their games. Thatcher Demko hasn’t been great with a 4.06 GAA and .872 SV%.

Seattle has started the season off 3-3 defeating the Sabres in their last game 5-1. They haven’t been great in any particular category but have been able to find ways to win in a few games.

VAN: Thatcher Demko (expected)

SEA: Martin Jones (expected)

Toronto Maple Leafs (-210) @ San Jose Sharks (+180)

Toronto is 4-3 on the season coming off a loss against the Golden Knights on Monday. They’ve been great at home but have struggled on the road. Newly acquired Ilya Samsonov has provided them with some stable goaltending ranking 4th in GSAx.

San Jose hasn’t had a great start to the year going 2-7. They’ve struggled to produce offensively ranking dead last in GF/G. Their goaltending has also been sub-par with the combination of Reimer and Kahkonen.

TOR: Erik Kallgren (expected)

SJS: Kaapo Kahkonen (expected)

Winnipeg Jets (+125) @ Los Angeles Kings (-145)

The Winnipeg Jets snapped their two-game losing streak against the Blues on Monday defeating them 4-0. They’ve been great defensively ranking 9th in GA/G but have struggled to find the back of the net ranking 26th in GF/G.

Los Angeles has started the season off 4-4 and sits in 4th place in the Pacific division. Jonathan Quick has gotten off to a slow start after having an unbelieve season last year.

WPG: Connor Hellebuyck (expected)

LAK: Jonathan Quick (expected)

Pick(s):

Dallas Stars (-120) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.30 to win 0.25 Units

The Stars are coming off back-to-back road losses against the Senators and Bruins. They return home and will face a Washington team that’s won their last two. This will be the first game of a three-game road trip for the Capitals.

In those last two games, Dallas struggled to produce offensively. However, if we look at the home and away split for them, they’ve been immensely better on home ice. Washington on the other hand, has struggled on the road.

Dallas is expected to have Oettinger in net who ranks 1st in the NHL in GSAx with a +7.2. Washington is likely to have Darcy Kuemper in the net who ranks 41st in that category.

Buffalo Sabres in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units

The Sabres are coming off their worst performance of the year in Seattle. To be fair, it was the last game of a four-game road trip so I’m sure exhaustion played a role. Despite that loss, they’ve been great to start the season ranking 2nd in GF/G and 3rd in GA/G.

Montreal has dropped their last two games and will begin a four-game road trip tonight. They’ve been above average at home but have looked like a different team on the road. In their two road games, they’ve averaged 0.50 GF/G and 3.00 GA/G.

While I’m sure Montreal will improve on the road eventually, the Sabres have shown that they can rebound from a disappointing performance. Earlier this season, they lost 7-1 to Pittsburg and bounced back the next game with a 4-1 win upsetting Ottawa.

Eric Comrie is expected to start for Buffalo while Jake Allen is the likely starter for Montreal. Allen does have the advantage in terms of GSAx but Comrie isn’t far behind.

Edmonton Oilers/ Chicago Blackhawks over 6.5 (-125) – Caesars
- Risk 0.31 to win 0.25 Units

The Oilers are coming off a game last night where they took down the Blues 3-1. Tonight they’ll face off against the Blackhawks in their second game of a three-game road trip. Edmonton’s been clicking offensively behind the usual combination of McDavid and Draisaitl. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zack Hyman have also been averaging a point per game which is some much-needed depth scoring for this squad. Defensively, they’ve continued to struggle ranking 22nd in the NHL in GA/G and 23rd in SOGA/G.

Chicago ranks 15th in GF/G and has been getting some solid depth production offensively. At home, they’ve also been better with a 4.33 GF/G compared their average of 3.33 GF/G overall. Defensively, they’ve been above average ranking 13th in GA/G.

I believe this game goes over the total for a bunch of reasons. The first is offense, both of these teams have been able to produce this season and face weaker defenses. The Oilers and Chicago rank near the bottom in terms of SOGA/G.

Goaltending is another reason, Campbell has been poor to start the year. The Blackhawks should be able to get at least 2-3 by him. Stalock has played pretty well to start the year but has shown he can have a blowup game. In his last two games, he faced offenses worse than Edmonton’s and allowed two or more goals in both matchups. Edmonton’s speed should also provide Chicago’s defense with some issues. Chicago also ranks 30th in Penalty minutes which will provide the Oiler’s PP, which ranks 3rd, several opportunities against Chicago’s PK which ranks 17th.

Player Props to Target:

Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105)
- Tkachuk has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in six of the first seven games. Last year when he was on the Flames, he went over this number in two of three matchups. This year on the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of four games.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NFL Week 7 Misleading Final Scores

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 26, 2022

Saints out-gained the Cardinals 494 to 326 yet lost 42-34. A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them along with 8 penalties. Andy Dalton lost the game.

The Lions were out-gained only 330 to 312 yet lost 24-6. A 5-1 turnover ratio did them in. Goff regressing bad.

The Colts out-gained the Titans 292 to 254 yet lost 19-10. A 3-1 turnover ratio in horrible spots killed it for the Colts. Matt Ryan lost the game.

The Panthers only out-gained the Buccaneers 343 to 322 yet won 21-3. Equal turnovers and horrible red zone efficiency hurt the Bucs.

The Jaguars out-gained the Giants 452 to 436 yet lost 23-17. A 1-0 turnover ratio, 13 penalties and and poor coaching did the Jaguars in. Also time of possession was only 25:50.

The Browns out-gained the Ravens 336 to 254 yet lost 23-20. A 2-1 turnover ratio and horrible 2/11 3rd down killed them.

The Broncos out-gained the Jets 324 to 260 yet lost 16-9. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 3/16 3rd down hurt bad.

Lots of the Texans yard vs the Raiders were garbage.