Hey all! If you have been tailing my OB plays this season, you know that the last couple were on the losing side. Saying that, we are season at 46-35 (57%) this season in College Football and I have decided to give out one of my top plays this week instead of a lower tier play! Best of luck if you tail!
Get all of our Premium Picks HERE, including monthly all access and my Early Bird College Basketball Full Season Special here at The Odds Breakers!
The Texas State Bobcats travel to Alabama to take on the South Bama Jaguars on Saturday. The Bobcats enter 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS and 4-5 o/u while the Jags enter 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and 5-4 o/u. Texas State has been averaging just 4.5 yards per play offensively against defenses giving up an average of 5.5 YPP and there defense is giving up 5.3 YPP, which is the same number of their opponents offenses. On the other side of the field, South Alabama has been gaining 6 YPP against defenses giving up 5.8 YPP and are giving up just 4.9 YPP against offenses averaging 5.6 YPP. These are 2 of the slower paced teams in the conference, ranking 7th and 12th in tempo and have the same ranking for totals plays run in conference play. According to PFF, Texas State enters this contest as the 5th highest rated defense in the nation while South Bama is no slouch, ranking 40th. Big plays will come at a premium at this one with those defenses ranking 2nd and 3rd in the Sun Belt while the offenses rank 7th and 13th in accumulating plays of 30 yards or more. This will be a very similar matchup for South Alabama to when they played the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana. That game ended with the Jaguars coming out on top 20-17. Another comparable game for the Jags was against Troy, where the score ended up 10-6. I fully expect this game to be under 45 points in this one.
I have handed out 5 plays already and am back today with 2 more for you. I am waiting on a few key injury notes to decide if I will add anything tomorrow morning; to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -17.5 vs Northwestern–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Sentiment is higher on Northwestern than it should be after everybody saw them play Ohio State to a respectable 21-7 loss last week. The weather had a major impact on them game and ultimately kept a lethal Ohio State offense at bay. Let’s not forget: Northwestern is 1-8 on the year with losses Miami OH and Southern Illinois. 2 weeks ago, they went on the road and allowed 33 points to an Iowa offense that had looked inept in every facet until they played the Wildcats.
I am playing on the Gophers with the expectation that backup QB Athan Kaliakmanis gets the start. The freshman has seen the majority of his work come in 2 tough road environments(@ Penn State, @ Nebraska); I’d say 8.8 Y/A is beyond impressive all things considered. The youngster also brings an element of mobility that Minnesota doesn’t get out of senior QB Tanner Morgan. The identity of this Gophers offense, however, is the run game. Mohamed Ibrahim is a true workhorse that is well over 1,000 yards a 5 YPC on the season, and Minnesota’s OL has exceeded my expectations. Throw out what you saw last week from Northwestern when Ohio State was forced to be one-dimensional; the Wildcats have allowed 200+ rushing yards to Miami OH, Duke, and Maryland this year. With the way I expect Minnesota to win up front and establish the run, that’s going to open up quite a few opportunities in the vertical passing game.
Northwestern has seemingly moved away from Ryan Hilinski as their starting QB in favor of Brendan Sullivan. In my opinion, Sullivan’s 73% completion is incredibly misleading when you consider he’s throwing for less than 6 Y/A on the year. Minnesota does a good job of limiting explosion over the top, so I won’t hold my breath and expect this to be the spot where Northwestern strikes gold in the passing game. In addition, Northwestern has not gotten much explosion out of RB Evan Hull(4.2 YPC); Minnesota’s run defense has been strong this year and should be able to force the Wildcats into obvious passing downs.
This feels awfully similar to when I backed Minnesota at home a few weeks ago against Rutgers, and it’s probably even more favorable given Northwestern’s struggles in stopping effective rushing attacks. This number should start with a 2; I see something along the lines of a 34-10 win for Minnesota.
*CFB(1u): Maryland 1H +6.5 @ Penn State–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
As I handicap this matchup, I really don’t see a whole lot separating these two teams. Both QB’s are right at 8 Y/A, each team is solid but not spectacular in the trenches. Perhaps the biggest separating factor is Penn State’s secondary, but I think this is a matchup where they are going to get pushed.
Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa was quite ineffective at Wisconsin last week, but as was routine in the Big10 last week, weather played a major factor in that game. Tagovailoa is still completing 70% of his passes this year at an efficient 8 Y/A; he has quite the slew of WR’s to work with that I believe can go toe-to-toe with this Penn State secondary. Perhaps the most underrated part of this Maryland offense is their run game as both Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton are over 6 YPC this season. Penn State stepped up well in their run defense against Ohio State, but let’s not forget what Michigan did to this unit a few weeks ago. With the threat of a reliable passing game present, I think Maryland is able to establish the run here. Maryland’s OL has slipped a bit in Big10 play, but I haven’t seen enough out of Penn State’s pass rush to where I’m overly worried about the Terps getting beat up front.
We all know who Penn State QB Sean Clifford is: a serviceable but unspectacular QB. He has consistently found himself under 8 Y/A across the past 3 seasons. Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton’s numbers are still inflated from blowup games early in the season against Ohio and Auburn; he has been held to 4.5 YPC or below against Purdue, Central Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana. Penn State’s OL has exceeded expectations this year, but that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable(especially in the run blocking category). I view both Penn State’s offense and Maryland’s defense as solid but not great; I think the path to stops is there for the Terps.
Why Maryland 1H vs full game? I have been burned by teams playing their 2nd straight road game flaming out in the 2nd Half on multiple occasions this season, and we are getting a better number in the 1H. I would’ve made this 1H number closer to 4, so I see value backing Maryland early in this game.
NBA Premiums, 11.11 (40-25-1, 60.6%, +13.89 units):
Suns -7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Phoenix is good in these spots and they’re learning how to win without Chris Paul, which will be more and more a thing as their court-general ages. The Magic can be feisty but as long as the Suns do what they do best, running the floor efficiently and playing lock-down defense, they should win with ease. They’ll probably party over the weekend before their next road game at Miami – we all know South Florida can be a fun time – but this is a good spot for them to take care of business before a more challenging contest.
Nuggets/Celtics under 231.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This checks out as a slow-moving game. The Nuggets are moving a little faster down the court but in general, this is an offense run by Jokic at the top of the key. The Celtics are very adept at playing against that sort of offense as they can lock down in the half court and settle in. The length of Denver could also disrupt the comfort of Boston’s shooters. Slower tempos, contrasting styles that create advantage for both defenses from where I’m sitting. I would take this as low as 228.
Knicks 1H -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
No team comes out flatter than the Detroit Pistons and this is a really tough spot for the road team. The Pistons return home tomorrow to take on the mighty Celtics while the Knicks are fresh off a bad loss to Brooklyn and seeking instant revenge. The Knicks are also one of the stingiest 1st quarter defenses and highest scoring 1H offenses in the NBA. I’ll take the Knickerbockers to get right nice and early – who knows if they’ll finish the job.
Timberwolves/Grizzlies over 234.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Much unlike the above game, this game opened at a huge number and I’m guessing it only goes up. We saw these two teams create some explosive offense against each other in the playoffs last year and I think this spot may be even more ideal for production. The Grizzlies tend to go at the tempo of who they face, which is a good thing for the over since Minnesota is top 5 in that regard. Memphis also tends to run faster at home and the matchup (small and quick Memphis vs. long and explosive Minnesota) is a perfect storm for points. I’d take this up to 236.5 for two units.
We’ve made some strides in CFB lately. Our record is now a winning one and we’re almost in the black. What a ride, ha. Like our picks a lot this week since I was able to dedicate some extra time to CFB, we’re willing to put a few more units on our plays. Let’s keep rollin! Happy Veteran’s Day to anyone who’s served!
CFB Week 11 Picks (39-38-7, -4.05 units):
Caleb Williams (Colorado/USC, Friday) over 309.5 passing yards (-120), to win 1.5 units
The USC quarterback is a legitimate Heisman contender and USC is in a great spot to flex on a bad Colorado defense. The Buffaloes allow over 40 ppg and categorize as one of the worst defenses in so many different categories. That’s especially true against the pass. Caleb lights ’em up in another strong effort for the Trojans and for his season.
Army 1H under 9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Army goes up against one of the best defenses in the nation, at Troy, and even though the Black Knights found success against lower level teams that can’t defend a high school team, the Troy Trojans aren’t that. Army’s inability to score points against above average defenses has been stark, scoring only 7 points against AF and 10 points against Wake Forest. I’m not sure if the Knights will get close to the endzone in this contest; that’s the reality we’re dealing with. I’ll take the Army TT under early, in case somehow they figure it out for the full game.
Marshall ML (EVEN), to win 1.5 units Marshall only recently joined the Sunbelt conference but since they started facing App State, each team has won on their home field. It’s Marshall’s turn this year. The Thundering Herd are exceptional on defense, particularly against the run. They’re 4th nationally against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry. App State still prefers to be a run-first team. Like most Sunbelt offenses, the Mountaineers have limitations and they need the run game to ignite their passing attack. I don’t think the Herd lets them get comfortable. Marshall can control the ball on the ground, they run the ball on 59% of their plays, and keep the game low scoring and close. We know that these home-field advantages can be deadly and this will be a tough crowd for the Mountaineers to overcome. Give me the Herd for 1.5 units.
Notre Dame -15.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some people will say “Navy always plays Notre Dame close” but this is a neutral site game and the Irish should be able to control the ball with their defense and a growing offensive attack led by a dynamic rushing attack. Notre Dame has put up 40 ppg against better defenses than Navy the last 3 weeks and I’m not sure the Midshipmen will be able to score many points on ND’s defense. They’re starting to look more like the unit we saw in Week 1 against the Buckeyes. All ND for me.
TCU +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should probably be the the reckoning for TCU and I don’t think they’re the true #4 team in the country, but they should be feisty on Saturday. Texas is a better defensive team against the run which means the Horned Frogs potent passing attack should be able to stretch the field and free up some quick passes and trick-runs. Now that this is at +7.5, it’s passing into disrespectful territory and TCU will be plenty motivated to prove they can hang with a big dog like Texas.
Like that number, 11.11, and we got exactly 1 win last night. Kinda slick.
Let’s get more Friday:
NBA Premiums, 11.11 (40-25-1, 60.6%, +13.89 units):
Nuggets/Celtics under 231.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This checks out as a slow-moving game. The Nuggets are moving a little faster down the court but in general, this is an offense run by Jokic at the top of the key. The Celtics are very adept at playing against that sort of offense as they can lock down in the half court and settle in. The length of Denver could also disrupt the comfort of Boston’s shooters. Slower tempos, contrasting styles that create advantage for both defenses from where I’m sitting. I would take this as low as 228.
Timberwolves/Grizzlies over 234.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Much unlike the above game, this game opened at a huge number and I’m guessing it only goes up. We saw these two teams create some explosive offense against each other in the playoffs last year and I think this spot may be even more ideal for production. The Grizzlies tend to go at the tempo of who they face, which is a good thing for the over since Minnesota is top 5 in that regard. Memphis also tends to run faster at home and the matchup (small and quick Memphis vs. long and explosive Minnesota) is a perfect storm for points. I’d take this up to 236.5 for two units.
I released 2 Early Best Bets last night and am back today with 3 more plays for you. I am organizing how I want to approach the rest of this card and will be back tomorrow morning with one last wave of plays. Coming off a 6-2 Week 10, let’s carry it over into Week 11!
*CFB(1u): Memphis TT OVER 34.5 vs Tulsa–Thursday 6:30 PM CT
Memphis is in the middle of a tough 4 game skid where they blew a 4Q lead to Houston, lost in 4OT at East Carolina, and lost by 7 to UCF last week. A bounce of the ball here and there would have this team in much higher regard in the betting markets, and I believe this is an extremely favorable matchup for their offense.
Tulsa’s defense is atrocious. Allowing 27 points to Tulane last week might not look bad on the surface, but the Golden Hurricanes allowed 357 yards on the ground in that matchup. That is on the heels of allowing 53 points to Navy. Memphis RB Asa Martin averages 5.8 YPC and brings explosiveness out of the backfield that I believe Tulsa won’t be able to contain. I like Memphis QB Seth Henigan; he’s completing 65% of his passes on the year and has thrown for 8.3 Y/A throughout his career. Tulsa’s secondary isn’t as porous as their run defense, but with the way I believe the run game gets established tonight, that’s going to open quite a few opportunities for Henigan in the vertical passing game. Memphis’s OL has not held up well against competent pass rushes, but Tulsa’s inability to get after the QB is too clear to ignore.
I don’t want to have to worry about the other side of this matchup. Tulsa QB Davis Brin is a game-time decision, and I don’t have a great feel as to how freshman Braylon Braxton would fare against this Memphis defense. Each of these teams like to use pace to their favor, so we should get a high-possession game here. I would’ve made this Memphis TT at 38 or 38.5, so I see quite a bit of value in backing the Tigers offense tonight.
*CFB(1u): Florida -8 vs South Carolina–Saturday 3 PM CT
Florida has had their fair share of ups-and-downs this season, but I saw a lot of life out of this group last week. After falling behind on the road at Texas A&M, Florida rattled off a 21-0 run and blanked the Aggies in the 2nd Half. South Carolina might’ve gotten their 6th win last week, but I believe their record is quite misleading; they faced Kentucky without Will Levis, scored multiple defense/special teams TD’s vs Texas A&M, and got to play Vandy last week. This is the same team that lost by 13 to Missouri a few weeks ago and allowed 44 points at Arkansas earlier in the season. Here in their second straight road game, I think we see exactly why the Gamecocks are sizable ‘dogs in this matchup.
Florida is clearly a run-first team. We know what QB Anthony Richardson can do in the run game(6.6 YPC), but I’ve been beyond impressed from what Florida has gotten out of their RB room; their top 2 backs are each over 5.8 YPC. Florida is able to win up front consistently on this side of the ball, having allowed more than 1 sack just once this season. South Carolina, on the other hand, has some pretty clear struggles within their Front 7. Aside from their inability to get pressure on the QB, the Gamecocks have struggled to match up well against the run this year; last week, Vanderbilt’s Ray Davis ran for over 8 yards a pop on 20 carries. With the effectiveness and multiplicity of this Florida rushing attack, I think that makes Richardson’s life that much easier in the vertical passing game.
South Carolina’s offense is simply not where it needs to be by SEC standards in what is just Year 2 for Shane Beamer. QB Spencer Rattler is figuring out that he doesn’t have Oklahoma-level skill talent at his new stop, and as a result, his numbers have plummeted(7.3 Y/A, 8 TD vs 9 INT). The Gamecocks’ run game is above average with MarShawn Lloyd healthy, but he is not a certainty to go in this game after missing last week. Even with Lloyd in there, South Carolina’s mediocrity up front limits the rushing attack from being overly explosive. Aside from a 65 yard run by Devon Achane, I thought Florida played the run pretty well last week, and aside from a blowup performance vs LSU, the secondary has held up fine. This is not an overly difficult matchup for Florida’s DL in the trenches.
With first year head coaches, you have to account for improvement in the month of November. Billy Napier has done a good job of weeding out the distractions in that locker room, and I thought we saw an inspired performance in response last week. This line should tell you everything you need to know; Florida wins this one by double digits.
*CFB(1u): Washington/Oregon OVER 72.5–Saturday 6 PM CT
I don’t see a path to stops for Washington. The Huskies rank outside the Top 100 in defensive efficiency this season and now have to travel to take on the most balanced/multiple offense in the country. It all starts up front for Oregon; the Ducks have allowed just 1 sack this season(1!). In the run game, they’ve paved the way for 3 separate Oregon rushers(including Nix) to run for over 6 YPC. This is the best OL in CFB. I don’t see Washington providing much of a resistance in their Front 7, but the true weakness of this defense is their secondary. Both Jayden de Laura and Tanner McKee threw for over 11 Y/A on this unit, and Bo Nix(9.1 Y/A) is more than capable of doing the same. Nix is a product of his environment; with the OL and skill players he has, it’s not hard to see why a middling player at Auburn is able to come in and lead an elite offense. Oregon very well put up 50 on Saturday.
Washington runs at one of the fastest paces in College Football and features a pass-first(maybe pass-only?) offense. The Huskies also have a really good OL, having allowed just 5 sacks this season. People think of Oregon as a physical team in the trenches; while that is mostly true against the run, they have not impressed me in the pass rushing department this season. Additionally, the pass defense is not so good to where I think they’ll shut down Michael Penix and co; Stetson Bennett and Cameron Ward both threw at will on this Oregon defense. Washington cannot run the football, but I think that actually plays to our favor on this play. The Huskies are almost certain to be playing from behind in this matchup, and I expect Kalen DeBour to rely almost exclusively on his senior QB Michael Penix to produce points.
With Washington’s pace and Oregon’s ability to create explosive plays in a multitude of ways, I see this game being played in the upper-70’s. Think 48-30.
3-2 yesterday for + units yesterday. Onward and upward; only one play we like today.
Mavs/Wizards over 207.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Normally this is a slow game between two good defenses but this isn’t the spot. The Mavs had a HORRIBLE shooting night against the Magic Wednesday and their defense will be tired heading into this. Meanwhile the Wizards aren’t as defensively efficient as they were to start the season. Luka and a Dallas team in get-right-mode should push the points and the pace. I like this to go uncharacteristically over.
We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from @BetSperts and The Deep Dive podcast comes on to break down a HUGE slate of NFL games! First, Kiev talks about the power ball as well as the College Football week 11 slate of games with some FREE PLAYS and leans! Next, Kiev quickly covers UFC 281 main card with a play on a big dog. Then, Andy comes on and the guys get into some of the coaches that could get fired soon in the NFL. After that, the guys get into the full slate of NFL week 10 games somehow with 100% agreement on all of the plays that they have made so far. Finally, Kiev gives out a teaser and talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
