The Magic typically play at the pace of their opponent and that means they’ll be running up and down the floor chasing after a fast-paced Kings’ squad. The Magic also play at a faster pace at home (10th overall), and the Kings, for whatever reason, play exceptionally faster on the road (3rd overall). Sacramento is considerably more talented than Orlando offensively. Like the matchup, like the pace. I have this at 233.
Hornets TT under 109.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Lately the Hornets can’t score points. In their last 5 games they’re averaging only 101.6 ppg and they’re 22nd in OFF EFF at home. For whatever reason, they’re also ranked as a bottom 10 team in pace at home. Not sure what that’s all about. There’s a chance this is a spot for regression since Brooklyn just played last night, but the Nets are playing better defense recently. I also like that neither team is great at creating second-chance opportunities. The Hornets are just too injured and this is a sleepy spot for Brooklyn who won’t look to show out with any huge offensive performances. Get in, get out, sleepy, low scoring game and the Hornets don’t get close to 110, IMO. I have this game ending 109-101.
Pelicans ML (+110), to win 1.1 units
Atlanta has a massive rest advantage but I don’t care. Zion and most of the Pelicans’ starters didn’t play anywhere close to 30 minutes last night and Atlanta is a short drive. New Orleans has a lot of momentum right now; they’re just clicking as a young, exciting team. They’re what Atlanta wants to be but I don’t think the Hawks are there yet. The Pelicans’ length and interior offense should be a problem against a Hawks’ team that can rely too much on perimeter efficiency. Give me the Pels in a short upset.
Jokic over 46.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-110), to win 1 unit
I like this as an excellent setup for Jokic at home going up against a small Spurs’ squad. We’ve seen that with Siakam and Embiid when they went up against SAS and in general, the Spurs’ just aren’t playing great defense against anyone. It’s an ideal spot for Denver at home and while the line (-10) is probably slightly too big, this is an angle we can take advantage of. PS: Prop plays won’t count towards our ATS record- we’ll keep a separate record of how often these hit.
Bonus Play: UFC Fight Night
Mark Madsen (+180), to win 1.8 units
This is priced wrong. Mark Madsen is an elite, silver-medal-Olympian wrestler who hasn’t shown any flaws in his takedown offense or defense. Grant Dawson is the younger, sexier play with elite wrestling ability himself, but that shouldn’t make him the favorite. I think Madsen is better on the mat and I always side with the superior wrestler in these cases. It bodes well for us!
Seriously, what gives TCU? You keep overperforming your outlook, and covering spreads. What is it gonna take to end this non-sense? I think a look ahead game to Texas might be the answer. TCU’s offense has been incredible under coach Sonny Dykes and you have to give them a ton of credit for what they have accomplished but I am concerned for this defense that only ranks 84th in EPA per play. Texas Tech hasn’t had a great season by any means once Tyler Shough got hurt, but their defense has held them up rankings 22nd in success rate and 39th in EPA per play. The big thing here for me is something that we need to pay attention to. Tyler Shough should be back from his injury this game. He tinkered some last week with a few plays but didn’t start and the Red Raiders were all ready blown out. I also think that the look ahead to Texas might hurt the Horned Frogs in this spot. Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Texas Tech +9.5 – 2 stars
Alabama vs LSU +13.5 O/U 58.5
This game has become interesting over the past few weeks. Alabama has shown some venerability vs Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M while LSU started off a bit slow and then has been rolling over the past few weeks. Metrically, Alabama has a huge 2.11 yards per play advantage as well as top 5 in both offensive and defensive EPA, but LSU has been creeping up ranking 12th in offensive EPA and 43rd on defense. The big question here is if this spread is justified, and I do not think that it is. LSU is good against stopping the pass ranking 24th in opponent passing success rate and that is where Alabama gets their yards. The Tide’s rushing offense only ranks 60th in success rate, and they have become more of a mask for the pass. I think that the 3rd element to LSU’s offense is Jayden Daniels rushing the football. LSU should be able to pick up some big 1st downs being that Alabama only ranks 30th in opponent rushing success rate. This is a huge night game here in Death Valley, and both teams are coming off of the bye. Last year, a much worse LSU team played this Alabama team close. Take the points.
*3 Star Free Play on Boise State* The Boise State offense has been much better since Taylen Green took over at quarterback and Dirk Koetter was hired as the offensive coordinator for the Broncos. If you only look at the last three games, this Broncos offense really has it clicking. The run game is much improved with Green as a running threat at quarterback and Jeanty beside him in the backfield.
Boise State has had a top defense all year. Their advanced metrics are top ten in the country across the board. I like the matchup with their defensive line against this offensive line of BYU.
BYU’s Jarren Hall is playing while banged up, and he is without multiple of his best weapons. The BYU offense is a shell of its former self. On defense, BYU ranks as one of the ten worst defenses in the country when looking at only the last three games. I don’t have any confidence in their ability to get stops here.
Boise State was beaten by BYU 51-17 the last time they met in Boise two years ago. I like Boise’s chances of beating BYU handily in this one. Take Boise State.
Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Keeneland for the third time after its debut there in 2015 and only with a one year layoff since it’s last inception in Lexington in 2020.
I am including picks for all 12 races on the card, The Breeders’ Cup races are numbers 3-11. The weather could get a little sloppy Saturday afternoon and it will certainly be windy. So keep an eye on the track, and if you can I’d recommend waiting to see how the track shapes up with the 2 pre-races. The races get started early so tune into Gameday and the races at the same time. I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you.
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)– Purse: $150,000 – Post Time: 9:30 CDT
Lots of 2 year olds without history in this one. I landed on the 5 Encendido. Not going to have much of a wager here.
WIN: 5 Encendido
Top 4 if playing exotics: 5-6-4-1
Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt) Purse: $195,000 Post Time – 10:05 CDT
I am going with the hot horse here in the 4 Silk Trade. Joseph Talamo gets the ride and has either won or put this horse in position to win in three straight trips. Right inside him is the main competition in the 3 Messier. Messier will move back significantly in length in his first run since the Kentucky Derby.
WIN: 4 Silk Trade
Top 4 if playing exotics: 4-3-6-10
Race 3 – The Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (DIRT) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 10:50 CDT
When I say a race is wide open in my opinion, Race 3 is the definition. There’s a ton of pace on both the inside here at the rail with the 1 Slammed, and on the outside with the 12 Lady Rocket and 13 Echo Zulu. Because of horses sprinting out of the gates from both ends I have to look at the closers here. The 4 Ce Ce won this race last year, but has been bested at this distance in the Grade I Balrina at a fast pace in August by both the 7 Obligatory and the 8 Goodnight Olive. I am going with the 8 Goodnight Olive who won that race.
WIN: 8 Goodnight Olive
Top 4 if playing exotics: 8-4-7-1
Race 4 The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade I – 5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: – 11:29 CDT
I said this last year in the Breeder’s Cup preview and in other Turf sprints where trainer Wesley Ward teams up with Irad Ortiz Jr. on a horse. Just bet it. Well that’s the case here with the 8 Golden Pal. That being said Ward is also entering the 4 Campanelle and the 7 Arrest Me Red. All of these horses seem to bust out of the gate and not look back. I’m on the favorite 8 Golden Pal who has won 8 of 11 starts and is 4 for 4 at Keeneland. Don’t be shocked however if Johnny V works some magic on 7 Arrest Me Red.
Win: 8 Golden Pal
Top 4 if playing exotics: 8-7-4-6
Race 5 The Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time: 12:10 CDT
Gotta love this race sponsor. The 7 Cody’s Wish is the play here. This horse hasn’t lost at this distance even though it’s had a close call in July from the 11 Three Technique. Bob Baffert has a solid entry in the 6 Laurel River who has won the last three. The best recent time outside of those comes from the 10 Senor Buscador who could post an upset attempt.
Win: 7 Cody’s Wish
Exotics: 7-10-6-3
Race 6 The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – Grade I – 1 3/16 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 12:50 CDT
Wide open race here, a lot depends on track condition. John Gosden brings the favorite over in the 3 Nashwa. I am fading that horse here due to what I think we be potentially softer course if any rain starts moving in around post-time. If it does I think the horse that could compete on either track is the 5 Tuesday. The Aiden O’Brien entry lost some steam at the end last trip out, but has bested Nashwa earlier in the year.
Win: 5 Tuesday
Exotics: 5-3-2-4
Race 7 The Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade I – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time 1:30 CDT
The 2 Kimari with Wesley Ward training on this sprint looks like a great horse on the inside, but gets a new jockey in Jose Ortiz. The big time favorite will be the 9 Jackie’s Warrior, but I can’t play those odds here. 9 Jackie’s Warrior struggled in this race last year, but bounced backed to form since then only losing to Cody’s Wish his last trip out at a longer distance. The 9 has to be in all plays on Pick 3/4s, but I think there’s a pair of value horses in the field also. Those are the 4 American Theorem who dazzled with a 1:08.3 6F Trip at Del Mar at the end of July. 11 Flash of Mischief also showed sub 1:09 speed at this distance his last trip out and opens at 30-1. Those two horses could pull the upset and definitely make for some nice exotics.
Win: 4 American Theorem
Exotics: 4-11-9-2
Race 8 The Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 2:10 CDT
The 13 Kinross comes into this contest winner of his last 4 races. The 4 Modern Games won the Juvenile Turf last year, but only has 2 wins in 6 tries in 2022. One of those was the Woodbine Mile in the states. I worry that the 4 has made too many trips across the pond in the last 3 months however. Longshot 7 Beyond Brilliant also makes my card with a 1:32.3 mile win his last time out.
Win: 13 Kinross
Exotics: 13-4-7-14
Race 9 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $2,000,000 Post Time 2:55 CDT
The 6 Nest will be a big favorite here. Winner of her last 3 races it’s hard to pick against her. That being said I am leaning towards the 4 Clairiere who struggled out of the gate last time out, but has the speed late to stay with Nest at the line. She came from 11th after a poor start to finish 4th in this race last year. With Joel Rosario on board I think she pulls the upset here.
Win: 4 Clairiere
Exotics: 4-6-1-7
Pick 3: – I’ll have some in for this here for sure. Hit me up @thegreatknoche on twitter if you’re interested in how I’m playing the late Pick 3 for the remaining Breeder’s Cup Races
Race 10 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade I – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $4,000,000 Post Time: 3:40 CDT
Another wide open race for me. The horses I like best here are the 7 Nation’s Pride. This horse has two wins and a second in US races since coming over and won at this distance by margin. I think the main competition will be the 2 War Like Goddess who is the best closer in the field. If the pace doesn’t get away she could pull it off no issues at all. She’s won against the boys recently and seems to excel at this longer distance. If that happens look for the 8 Master Piece to be right there with her. For a longshot I like the 13 Highland Chief if he can find a decent trip. This horse can close as well.
Win: 2 War Like Goddess
Exotics: 2-7-8-6-13
Race 11 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I -1 1/4 Miles (Dirt) Purse $6,000,000 – Post Time 4:40 CDT
Six Million in the Purse. Yowza. Well everyone and their Uncle is on the 4 Flightline, opening at 3-5 as a favorite. Can’t really blame them with his speed figure of 128 when winning the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in September. Flightline is a perfect 5-0 lifetime in finding the Winner’s Circle. However, I think there’s some decent competition in 2 Life is Good who posted a 125 at the Whitney Stakes in August and has won 6 of his last 7 races and 9 of 11 overall. Both these horses like clean air, the lead and going wire to wire. With Life is Good inside of Flightline I think he takes the lead early. Flightline while posting great marks hasn’t faced this level of competition. Another solid factoid that I trust is that Life is Good‘s Sire Mischief produced the 2020 winner of this race at this distance in Authentic. Can any other horses make some noise? Sure this is the best of the best. Kentucky Derby runner up 6 Epicenter and the 7 Olympiad would be my next two choices. Also with the right trip the 1 Taiba has shown great improvement since the Derby.
Win: 2 Life Is Good
Exotics: 2-4-6-7
Race 12 The Fall Harvest Stakes Presented By Mint Hall Gaming– -1 Mile (Turf) Purse $350,000 – Post Time 5:20 CDT
We finish up with this one. The cool down race on the turf. Let’s be honest, unless you’re holding a late multi-race bet…. My picks below.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil previews the 2022/2023 Big 10 Basketball season. We go over player transitions, ATS numbers, coaching changes and everything that matters in the betting market. We also have a few future plays that Kiev gives out.
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Well, last night didn’t start the weekend in the black as App St was a loser but we continue to have a solid season at 43-33 (57%) to start the season in College Football and we look to have a successful Saturday! Best of luck if you tail!
Get all of our Premium Picks HERE, including monthly all access and my Early Bird College Basketball Full Season Special here at The Odds Breakers!
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will be listening to Enter Sandman Saturday afternoon as the Hokies of Virginia Tech enter Lane Stadium. The Yellow Jackets come into this one 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS and 2-6 o/u while the Hokies are 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS and 2-6 o/u.
Both teams are gaining less yardage (4.7, 4.8) than their opponents defensive average (5.3, 5.8) and are scoring about 8 points lower than their opponents defensive points score average. In addition, both offenses are fairly balanced but are two of the worst offenses in the nation, ranking 120th and 128th in success rate. GA Tech plays a bit faster than VA Tech but rank 11th and 14th in YYP (4.21, 4.6) in conference play and GA Tech has only 5 plays of 30 yards or more (11th in ACC). VA Tech has the edge on defense as they own the 20th best success rate and both teams don’t give up many big plays. The Hokies have given up 14 plays of 30 yards or more (50th in nation) and the Yellow Jackets have given up just 13 (38th). And when these 2 teams do get into the red zone, they seem to struggle punching it in. GA Tech has scored just 8 RZ touchdowns (127th) this season while the Hokies have scored 5 more, earning them the 107th ranking for red zone TDs. This sets up for a game in the teens and will be a tough watch. Maybe bet this and tune into another game haha. Take Under 40.5
Oregon St/Washington St under 55 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both of these teams have better defenses than given credit for. They also have subpar offenses and this game will see 18 mph winds.
Ohio State/Northwestern under 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
We’ve seen the Buckeyes play down to their competition and we think this will be the quintessential example. It’s a sleepy, sleeeepy spot after a big win at Happy Valley and Northwestern is always a tough competitor. There will also be a 90+% chance of rain and over 20 mph winds blowing in. Under and the dog.
Iowa/Purdue under 41 (-110), to win 2 units
It’s an Iowa game and there’s gonna be upwards of 32 mph winds in this contest. Yea, that’s worth a 2 unit under play for this guy.
Maryland/Wisconsin under 50.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maryland can score points but there’s a 93% chance of rain and 20 mph winds will be ripping through Badger Stadium. Plus, have you seen Wisconsin’s offense function? Ugly.
LSU 1H +7 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Alabama -13.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Death Valley at night is a significant home field advantage. Jayden Daniels is a talented dude and he can keep the Tigers in this early. But the full game? Give me a hedge both ways and the Crimson Side, behind a way better coach and better QB, to pull ahead late after some defensive adjustments at halftime. Tide roll! LSU ain’t ready, but they’ll be in it early.
Nets/Wizards under 223.5 (-110), to win 1 unit The Nets are still in disarray among all the chaos and they don’t have a coach just yet. Kyrie is out, a major factor in their total offensive production. The Wizards are at home after a big win with plenty of rest, and they’re a bend-don’t-break defense that limits teams to 40 pts in the paint, under 50 rebounds per game, and 111 ppg (11th). I like this to be a slow moving, awkward game for Durant in DC. In Kevin’s home city, he’ll put too much on his shoulders and ISO ball will slow down the game, too.
Bucks/T-Wolves under 227.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Bucks are the #1 team in defensive efficiency so far this season. When the T-Wolves play at home, they’re a better defensive team. It’ll be strength against strength under the rim, as the length and size of Milwaukee rivals the big boys of Minnesota. Minnesota’s pace may create some high scoring at some point, but I think the Bucks can slow it down and make it a tough game. The Timberwolves also just got humbled by the Suns, who are proving to still be a titan in the West, and they’ll look to stifle the Bucks’ offense. The Bucks are relying on their defense to win and they’re a proud 7-0. Like a very competitive game and an under in this one.
Celtics -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
This number has been steady where it is and if we think the Celtics are still an elite team (I do), this is a fantastic response spot at home after a disappointing loss to the Cavs. Cleveland has bested Boston twice this year already, which should leave the defending Eastern Conference Champions feeling a little more vulnerable than they’re used to this early in the season. This is a classic spot for the Bulls to stumble and get blown out- we know they don’t play as well against elite teams or on the road. Give me Boston to rally in the second and overwhelm the Bulls at home. I wouldn’t take the Bulls in the 3rd QTR this time, either.
PS:My good buddies LOVE Grant Williams to go over his PAR prop. He’s gone over in all but one game this season and this sets up to be a testy game where they’ll need a very active Williams. Not official for me, but I like it!
Lakers -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Shockingly, there’s some positive news around the Lakers right now. Russell Westbrook has played really well the last two games and the Lakers are winning at home. They stay at home for a big game against Cleveland, but the Jazz are in the middle of a tough road stretch. The Lakers will want it more, in my opinion, and the Jazz are due for some regression. Let’s face it. Ugly, but I have to play on LAL tonight.
I released 4 Best Bets yesterday and am back with 3 more plays for you, including one for tonight. I expect to add a play or two more before Saturday; to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Oregon State 1H +3 @ Washington–Friday 9:30 PM CT
This is a contrast in styles type of game; Oregon State is a run-first team, while Washington almost exclusively creates explosiveness through the air. On a night where wind and rain will be a factor(particularly early in this game), I like the way Oregon State’s style matches up with what’s proven to be a pretty shoddy Washington defense.
Oregon State RB Damien Martinez has emerged as the Beavers’ #1 back, running for nearly 300 yards over his last 2 games and 6.5 YPC on the season. Washington has been solid within their front 7 this year, but they haven’t shown me enough to where I can trust them against this physical Oregon State rushing attack. If Oregon State is able to establish the ground game, that’s going to open up a massive opportunity in the passing game against a Huskies defense that has allowed 11 Y/A or more to guys like Jayden de Laura and Tanner McKee this year. I don’t particularly care whether it’s Chance Nolan or Ben Gulbranson at QB for OSU tonight; those guys have almost identical numbers, both throwing for over 8 Y/A on the year.
The Washington passing game is good, but this offense doesn’t feature much balance. RB1 Wayne Taulapapa’s numbers are skewed from massive games against Portland State and Stanford; he is not a difference-maker in the ground game. While Washington’s OL has finally started to live up to their potential, Penix has slowly started to regress here over the last month as the competition has ramped up. Oregon State’s defense is much improved this season, particularly in the secondary. They held Caleb Williams to under 50% completion and just 5 Y/A, a performance that’s aged very nicely. With the run defense being their strength, I expect them to make Washington one-dimensional tonight.
The conditions early in this game clearly favor Oregon State’s ground-and-pound attack, and I’ve seen enough from this defense to trust them against a very predictable offense. It’s still hard to close out games on the road, and we’re getting a more favorable number in the 1H; I’ll back the Beavers early in this ballgame.
*CFB(1u): Kentucky 1H PK(-110) @ Missouri–Saturday 11 AM CT
Sentiment on Kentucky is low after they were blown out at Tennessee in loud fashion last week. Meanwhile, Missouri is coming off a win at South Carolina where the defense looked impressive. While I don’t believe Mark Stoops will ever be able to match up with the blue bloods in the SEC given his conservative style, this is the exact type of game where he makes his money.
The main matchup advantage I like for Kentucky is in their run game. Chris Rodriguez Jr was a 6 YPC back a year ago and has slowly gotten back into form after missing the first month of the season. Missouri, on the other hand, can absolutely be had in the run game. This is one of the worst run defenses in America last year, and while they’ve improved slightly, it doesn’t mean I trust them against this level of RB. Missouri does do a good job of limiting explosiveness over the top in the passing game, but with the efficiency I expect Kentucky to be able to run the ball at, I expect the 1-on-1 matchups to be there for QB Will Levis. Despite last week’s monstrosity against Tennessee, Levis is still over 9 Y/A on the season.
There is absolutely nothing special about Missouri’s offense. QB Brady Cook is under 7.5 Y/A and has thrown more INT’s than TD’s on the year. The Tigers offense lacks a consistent vertical passing game and rank 92nd in yards/play, a big reason why they can’t finish drives. The run game is perhaps slightly above average, but I don’t expect them to create much explosiveness against what’s been a pretty solid Kentucky run defense this year. I don’t worry about Kentucky’s defense despite them allowing 44 to Tennessee last week; they are clearly not built to step up in competition like that, but thankfully, they’re not being asked to in this matchup.
Why isolate Kentucky in the 1H? I have noticed(and been burned by) a trend where teams playing their 2nd straight road game tend to fade off considerably in the second half. In addition, it’s hard to close out games on the road, particularly in a tight matchup in this conference. With that said, I like the way Kentucky’s run first approach will fare in this matchup and think Missouri’s offense actually presents a favorable matchup for the Wildcats. 1H PK it is!
