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College Basketball Coaching and Predicted Tempo Changes for 2022/2023

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Lamont Paris is the new coach for South Carolina

There are a lot of coaching changes this year.  As sports bettors, and/or college basketball fans, we all know how important these coaches are to predicting outcomes.  Pace is a massive factor when it comes to the point differential as well as the total amount of points that are scored in a game.   I categorize each team as either, Much Faster, Faster, No Change, Slower, Much Slower and NA for not enough information.  Keep in mind that these are all projections based on association, and past performance.  Here are the coaching changes with my predictions for 2022/2023 pace of play.  Follow me on twitter for more wagering content @OBKiev.

Alabama A&M: Dylan Howard / Otis Hughley, Jr. – Not enough information.  He previously served as the head coach of the Nigerian national team, where he guided the team to three AfroBasket Women championships and the 2020 Summer Olympics.  NA

Alabama State: Mo Williams / Tony Madlock – Tony was at South Carolina State and also had a fast pace of play ranking 44th in tempo to Alabama State last year ranking 62nd.   No changes here.  No change

Ball State: James Whitford / Michael Lewis – Ball state ranked 46th in tempo with James Whitford while Michael Lewis from UCLA ranked 277th in Tempo under head coach Mick Cronin.   I expect slow play. Much Slower

Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- One of the biggest tempo changes in the country. Lewis will focus more on defense and they will slow things down drastically.

Butler: LaVall Jordan / Thad Matta – Thad is back at Butler and will increase the pace from 326 to around the 200 area.   Faster

Chattanooga: Lamont Paris / Dan Earl – Going from 304th to 78th looks like a big step up on speed for the Mocs.  Much Faster

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- This will be one of the biggest tempo changes in the country. Earl’s teams consistently were also very efficient on offense.

The Citadel: Dugger Baucom / Ed Conroy – Ed Conroy from Vanderbilt takes the team from 34th to 130th in Tempo.  Being that the SEC played fast in general, this number could go down to the 200s.  Much Slower

Cleveland State: Dennis Gates / Daniyal Robinson – Most of Robinson’s assistant tenure was under fast paced Steve Prohm until Iowa State slowed it down last year, so not enough info here for me.  NA

Davidson: Bob McKillop / Matt McKillop – 307th in pace should stay the same with the father to the son here.  No Change

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Matt McKillop said he wants Davidson to look to score in transition more than they have in the past (almost none). I don’t think they will be fast, but I expect them to be a little faster.

Duke: Mike Krzyzewski / Jon Scheyer- Mentor to Mentee means no change, however I will say that Duke has slowed it down some over the past two years.  No Change

East Carolina: Joe Dooley / Michael Schwartz – 138th in tempo to a bit slower at around 180th-ish from Michael’s tenure as an assistant at Tennessee.  Great defense though!  Slower

Elon: Mike Schrage / Billy Taylor – 253rd in tempo to the 50s.   Billy Taylor was an assistant at Iowa.  Expect no D.  Much Faster

Evansville: Todd Lickliter / David Ragland – 329th in Tempo to roughly the same.   Ragland was an assistant at Butler – No Change

Fairleigh Dickinson: Greg Herenda / Tobin Anderson – 54th in Tempo to not sure.   Tobin was a Division 2 coach at Saint Thomas Aquinas – NA

Florida: Mike White / Todd Golden – 267th in Pace mainly slower due to decent defense.  Todd had the Dons at 82nd in pace last year, but that was an increase from average over the years.  Faster

Florida Gulf Coast: Michael Fly / Pat Chambers – 40th in pace to probably around 150th.  Pat Chambers played pretty fast in the Big 10 but much slower than Michael Fly last year.  Slower

Fordham: Kyle Neptune / Keith Urgo – Keith was Kyle’s mentee last year so no change from average pace.  No Change

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I expect Fordham to play faster under Urgo this year. Urgo said in the preseason that Fordham wanted to play a much faster pace last year, but injuries made them slow things down. He should be pushing the pace here. I still think their offense is weak though.

George Washington: Jamion Christian / Chris Caputo – 83rd to maybe around 150th.   A little slower for Caputo coming from Miami.  Slower

Georgia: Tom Crean / Mike White – 99th to 267th will certianly be slower for the former Florida coach.  Tom Crean used to lose very fast!  Much Slower

Georgia State: Rob Lanier / Jonas Hayes – 169th to about the same with the former assistant and interim head coach of Xavier Jonas Hayes.   No Change

High Point: Tubby Smith / G.G. Smith – Another Father to son transition.   250th-ish over Tubby’s career.   No Change

Illinois State: Dan Muller / Ryan Pedon – 119th in pace to 289th for the former assistant coach at Ohio State.  That’s slower for sure.  Much Slower

Jackson State: Wayne Brent / Mo Willliams – 337th to 62nd is a huge change.  Almost like Deon Sanders type speed!   Much Faster

Missouri Kansas City: Billy Donlon / Marvin Menzies – Donlon picked up the pace last year some but was known for slower play in the past.  Marvin was an assistant from Grand Canyon and will push it back to slow around 280th in pace.  Slower

Kansas State: Bruce Weber / Jerome Tang – Webber’s fastest year was last year at 213th, but Jerome Tang the former assistant at Baylor will keep it close.  No Change

La Salle: Ashley Howard / Fran Dunphy – 173rd to probably around 240th.   Fran Dunphy’s years at Temple gave him the most success when he played a slower pace.  Slower

Lafayette: Fran O’Hanlon / Mike Jordan –  From 303rd to about 150 ish-with the former Colgate and Drexel assistant coach.  Faster

LIU: Derek Kellogg / Rod Strickland – From 6th in pace to I am guessing average.  Not a lot of data on Rod Strickland, but as an assistant in 2014 to 2017 with South Florida, they played an average pace.   Slower

Louisiana Tech: Eric Konkol / Talvin Hester – from 102nd to 200 ish, Talvin Hester was an assistant coach at Louisiana Tech in the past, and Texas Tech just last year.  Slower

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Hester will likely slow things down some, and he has made it very clear his main focus is on making this a great defensive team.

Louisville: Chris Mack / Kenny Payne – 188th to about the same.   Chris Mack was gone last year mid-season and the team started to play faster.  Kenny Payne spent a lot of time as an assistant in Kentucky who played good D and an average pace.  No Change

LSU: Will Wade / Matt McMahon – 101st to 200th.  LSU slowed it down some last year but Matt McMahon from Murray State will slow it even more.  Slower

Maine: Richard Barron / Chris Markwood – 229th to around 290th.  Chris Markwood was a long time assistant at Northeastern.  Slower

Maryland: Mark Turgeon / Kevin Willard – 211th in pace will probably stay close to the same.  Kevin Willard was all over the place in pace at Seton Hall.  No Change

Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Hard to guess where Willard’s teams will finish in tempo, but I do think they will be improved on the defensive end over time.

UMass: Matt McCall / Frank Martin – 76th to probably around 10th.   Frank Martin is a speedster as a former head coach at South Carolina.  Faster

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- A faster pace for sure, but time will tell if their games will have more points or not. McCall’s teams were really bad on defense. Can Martin make them improve on defense?

Miami (OH): Jack Owens / Travis Steele – 132nd to about 170th for the former Xavier coach Travis Steele.  Not a big enough change for me.  No Change

Milwaukee: Pat Baldwin Sr. / Bart Lundy – 116th to maybe faster.   Bart Lundy was in a lower division for a long time and it’s been 10 years since his Marquette assistant coaching days.  NA

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I think Lundy is an excellent coach. He wants to pick up full court man to man constantly, and I would expect a faster pace here. The team should be better with time as well.

Mississippi State: Ben Howland / Chris Jans – 259th to probably around 290th.  Not a big change when Chris Jans was at New Mexico State.  No Change

Mississippi Valley State: Lindsey Hunter / George Ivory – Mentor to Mentee relationship here so I assume they keep the super fast pace that ranked 1st 3 years ago.  No Change

Missouri: Cuonzo Martin / Dennis Gates – 260th in pace to I am not sure.   Dennis Gates has played fast and slow at Cleveland State depending on personal.   No change

Murray State: Matt McMahon / Steve Prohm – 181st to 100th I predict.   Steve Prohm played faster at Iowa State and he is back to his old coaching gig.  Faster

New Mexico State: Chris Jans / Greg Heiar – 238th to 80th is what I forecast being that he was at LSU as an assistant under Will Wade from 2017 to 2020.  Much Faster

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- A really good under the radar find here by Kiev. I think this will be one of the biggest tempo change teams.

North Carolina A&T: Will Jones/Phillip Shumphert (interim) – Not an ideal situation after Jones got fired just in August.  Same average pace around 159th.   No Change

Northwestern State: Mike McConathy / Corey Gipson – 18th to probably around 180th as Corey Gipson is coming from his assistant role at Missouri State.  Much Slower

Omaha: Derrin Hansen / Chris Crutchfield – 50th to around 100th so slightly slower.    Crutchfield has been an assistant at many programs like Oklahoma, TCU and Oregon.  They all trended a bit faster than average.   Slower

Rhode Island: David Cox / Archie Miller – 171st to 230th.   Archie Miller played a little slower at Indiana but he might not be extreme here.  Slower

Sacramento State: Brandon Laird (interim) / David Patrick – 324th to about 290th.   David Patrick was an assistant at speedy Arkansas and then to slower Oklahoma.   No Change

Saint Peter’s: Shaheen Holloway / Bashir Mason 247th to 270th.   Bashir Mason started out fast at Wagner and slowed it down.   No Change

San Diego: Sam Scholl / Steve Lavin – 262nd to 80th is my prediction.  Steve Lavin coached at UCLA and Saint Johns before broadcasting.   His kids played at a high tempo.  Much Faster

San Francisco: Todd Golden / Chris Gerlufsen – Internal promotion from assistant.  Remains 82nd in pace.  No Change

Seton Hall: Kevin Willard / Shaheen Holloway – 167th to around 250th.  Shaheen was a bit slower at St Peters.  What a run last year!   Slower

South Carolina: Frank Martin / Lamont Paris – 33rd to 300th.   Lamont Paris at Chattanooga had a very slow pace of play.   Much Slower

*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Paris is a good coach and he is excellent at getting his team to control the pace of the game. They will slow things down to a crawl.

South Carolina State: Tony Madlock / Erik Martin – 44th to maybe 120th.  Erik Martin was an assistant at Press Virginia under Huggy Bear.  Slower

South Dakota: Todd Lee / Eric Peterson- 256th to around 220.   Eric Peterson bounced around Utah for a while.   No Change

SMU: Tim Jankovich / Rob Lanier – 107th to about 70th.  Rob Lanier from Georgia State plays a little faster than Tim Jankovich did.   Faster

Tulsa: Frank Haith / Eric Konkol – 214th to 102nd is a bit faster for sure.  Erik Konkol was good at LA Tech.  Faster

Villanova: Jay Wright / Kyle Neptune – I still can’t believe he is gone!  340th to about the same.   Kyle Neptune was Jay Wright’s protégé for a while.  He however did play faster last year coaching for Fordham.  No Change

Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I think they will play a little bit faster under Neptune, but Villanova has been so efficient on offense under Wright that I’m not sure they will score more even with a slightly faster pace.

VMI: Dan Earl / Andrew Wilson – – 67th to 80th.   Andrew Wilson came from James Madison where he was an assistant.  No Change

Wagner: Bashir Mason / Donald Copeland- 217th to 167th isn’t significant where Donald Copeland came from Seton Hall.  No Change

Weber State: Randy Rahe / Eric Duft – Eric was Randy’s assistant all the way back dating to 2006.  The 60th in pace stays the same.  No Change

Western Michigan: Clayton Bates / Dwayne Stephens – 331st to about 185th.   Dwayne Stephens was an assistant to Tom Izzo dating back to 2003!  Faster

Xavier: Travis Steele / Sean Miller – 100th to about 220th.  Sean Miller didn’t play all that fast in Arizona for most of his years.   Slower

Kyle Hunter’s Added Teams To Watch for Tempo Changes

Eastern Washington- Coach Riley says it is his goal to make his Eastern Washington team to play “much faster” in the year ahead. They were already quick, but it sounds like they want to be top 20 in tempo.

FIU- Jeremy Ballard’s team slowed things down a lot from their break neck pace from a couple years ago, but Ballard says his team is about to ramp up the tempo once again. Much faster.

 

 

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

https://Kenpom.com

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/33400256/men-college-basketball-coaching-changes-2022-23

NFL DFS Week 9 – Time To Tee Up The TDs With Taylor And Terry

By
Shawn Knoche
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Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.

Our record this season is now 6-2 in the high participant Double-Ups. We won this last week thanks to the P.J. Walker to DJ Moore bomb. I don’t care that he took his helmet off at all. Got us more stats in OT. We hit more BYEs this week making the available player pool tighter.

I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.

Taylor Heinicke, QB: $5,400. Josh Allen is the clear number one play, but at $8,500 he’s just too rich to build a solid lineup around without getting lucky. The Vikings are 9th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, but 31st in passing yards per attempt allowed at 7.7. Outside of Aaron Rodgers week 1, every QB has had a solid game against this defense. Even Justin Fields had 9.9 yards per attempt in their match-up. Heinicke has thrown the ball over 30 times in both his starts so far and I don’t see any reason the Commanders don’t attack this defense downfield on Sunday.

Aaron Jones, RB: $7,400. Jones quietly racked up a big game last week in the loss to Buffalo. He had 20 carries for 143 yards and caught 4 passes out of the backfield. While he will still split time with A.J. Dillon in the backfield, Jones gets the Lions share of the snaps. Speaking of the Lions, they are allowing 5.1 yards per rushing attempt. That’s not going to get it done against a Packers team that will continue to lean on the ground game while Aaron Rodgers and his receivers lack continuity.

Kenneth Walker III, RB: $6,200. Walker hits the lineup again as he continues to get carries and find the end-zone. Against the Cardinals in Week 6 he had 97 yards on 21 carries and scored. He has 5 scores in 4 games since becoming the main guy in the Seahawks backfield. I also like Eno Benjamin or James Conner on the other side of this match-up depending on who plays.

Terry McLaurin, WR: $5,900. Heinicke becomes the starting QB again and McLaurin becomes relevant. He has 11 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown with Heinicke back at the helm. Going up against this pass defense that’s 31st in yards per attempt we have to stack him here with Heinicke.

Deandre Hopkins, WR: $7,900. Just put Hopkins in every lineup until they get his price up where Jefferson and Kupp are at. 27 targets in his two games back with 22 catches, 262 yards and a score. Seattle held Murray in check in Week 6 sacking him 6 times and holding him to 222 yards passing. Hopkins changes the complexion of this offense however and if Seattle brings pressure that means Hopkins is likely facing solo coverage. I think he gets to 100 yards again on Sunday.

Tee Higgins, WR: $7,300. Higgins should be Joe Burrow’s main target with Chase out. He struggled on Monday night, but so did the Bengals offensive line. When Burrow gets protection, his receivers have big days. It should happen again here versus the Panthers who are 30th in the NFL in sacks getting just 1.5 per game.

Robert Tonyan, TE: $3,600. Tonyan led the Packers in targets on Sunday night against Buffalo and is one of the few people I think Rodgers trusts at the moment. He also had a TD called back for offensive PI so he should be in play near the goal line. The Lions allow over 5 catches and 59 yards per game to opposing tight ends so this is a juicy match-up for Tonyan.

Laviska Shenault Jr., FLEX: $3,300. With P.J. Walker at the helm opposing defenses will have to respect the pass and deal with D’onta Foreman on the ground. This offense has looked much better the last few games and been very well balanced. That being said I expect them to be playing from behind against the Bengals on Sunday and they will need to pass to stay in the game. Shenault was third on the team in targets behind DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall. He is also finally healthy so should continue to be the #3 guy in Carolina and I expect another 3-5 catches and maybe he can snag a score.

Colts, DST: $2,700. The Colts will face the Patriots offense and Matt Patricia and Joe Judge and Mac Jones and maybe Bailey Zappe. The Jets held the Pats to under 300 yards last week, and the Colts are 7th in points allowed per game at 19.6. This has been a solid unit that has kept the subpar Colts offense in games up to this point. They just haven’t created a bunch of turnovers up to this point. I think this could be the week that changes.

 

 

NHL Preview & Picks – November 3rd, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have a massive slate tonight with thirteen games taking place across the NHL. I’ll break down my picks and offer a few player props to target.

 

Pick(s):

  • Winnipeg Jets in Regulation (-135) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.34 to win 0.25 Units

The Jets have looked reinvigorated after a disappointing season last year. They’ve started 5-3-1 and are currently 2nd in the Central Division. Winnipeg was outplayed in their last game against the Vegas Golden Knights but thanks to the play of Connor Hellebuyck, they were able to salvage a point.

Montreal has gone 5-5 to start the year with the majority of their wins coming on home ice. Head coach Martin St. Louis has been able to inspire some of their young talents, specifically Cole Caufield.

Winnipeg has struggled to generate and capitalize on scoring chances. They rank 24th in GF/G (2.89) and 23rd in SOG/G (29.7). However, Winnipeg has been much better at home this season averaging 3.00 GF/G and 36.0 SOG/G. Kyle Connor who had 93 points last season has gotten off to a slow start with only four points through their first nine games.

Just like the Jets, Montreal hasn’t been great at producing offense. They’re 26th in GF/G (2.80) and 21st in SOG/G (29.80). On the road, their production worsens averaging 2.40 GF/G and 29.0 SOG/G. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack averaging 3.1 GA/G with that number moving to 3.2 away from home.

Connor Hellebuyck and Sam Montembeault have been confirmed as the starters for tonight’s matchup. As I mentioned above, Hellebuyck has had a rebound year ranking 3rd in GSAx (+7.4). Montembeault has been the worse of Montreal’s goaltending duo but has still played well ranking 17th in GSAx (+3.2).

The Jets have been a different team on home ice this season while Montreal hasn’t been as sharp on the road. I think the Jets rebound after a tough performance in Vegas. Also, this total shouldn’t be at 6.5. I think this game finishes 3-1 or 4-2 Jets, so I lean the under.

 

  • Calgary Flames in Regulation (-130) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.33 to win 0.25 Units

The Flames have had a slow start to the year when you compare it to their preseason expectations. They’re 5-3-0 sitting in 5th place in the Pacific Division. In their last game, they collapsed and blew a 4-2 lead in the 3rd period to the Seattle Kraken. There’s no doubt they’ll be looking to move on quickly from that loss.

The Predators have had a bizarre start to their season. They played their first two games in Prague, where they won both against an inferior opponent. Since then, they’ve lost seven of their last eight games.

Calgary generates a ton of scoring opportunities ranking 3rd in SOG/G and 8th in xGoal %. They’ve had issues capitalizing on these chances ranking 22nd in Shooting % but even with that, they still rank 8th in GF/G (3.50).

Nashville has struggled to produce offensively ranking 27th in GF/G averaging 2.60. Defensively, they rank 23rd averaging 3.50 GA/G but away from home that number jumps to 4.75 GA/G.

Jacob Markstrom is the confirmed starter for Calgary tonight with Juuse Saros expected to get the nod for Nashville. Markstrom has looked good through his first six games with a +3.5 GSAx while Saros has struggled with a -0.2 GSAx.

While the Flames haven’t looked stellar at home this season, they’ve faced some good teams. Nashville hasn’t looked great away from home either with a 1-3-0 record on the year. From all the local reporters, Flames head coach Darryl Sutter wasn’t too happy after their most recent loss. Calgary dominated that game but sloppy play lead to scoring chances for the Kraken which they took advantage of. I’m guessing we see an inspired Flames team tonight against an inferior opponent.

 

  • Seattle Kraken/ Minnesota Wild over 6.5 (-110) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.28 to win 0.25 Units

Seattle ranks 10th in GF/G averaging 3.45. On the road, that number jumps to 4.00 GF/G. Defensively, they average 3.45 GA/G (22nd) but away from home that number decreases slightly to 3.40.

Minnesota averages 3.40 GF/G ranking 10th. At home, they have been even better averaging 4.00 GF/G. Defensively, they rank 25th in the NHL giving up an average of 3.60 GA/G. However, at home, they’ve been even worse with a 4.80 GA/G.

Martin Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury have been confirmed as tonight’s starting goalies. Jones has a 3.09 GAA and sub .900 SV%. He currently ranks 39th in the terms of GSAx with a -1.1. Fleury has also had a rough start to the season with a 3.33 GAA and .894 SV%. He’s been even worse than Jones in terms of goals saved above expected with a -2.5.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Anders Lee over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3 SOG and over 3.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. St. Louis ranks 12th in SOG allowed per game. The Blues also allow the 7th most SOG per game to Left Wingers.
  • Brendan Gallagher over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and over 4.2 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five games. Winnipeg ranks 23rd in SOG allowed per game. The Jets also allow the 19th most SOG per game to Right Wingers.
  • Nazem Kadri over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4 SOG and over 7.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Nashville ranks 19th in SOG allowed per game. The Predators also allow the 9th most SOG per game to Centers.
  • Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.8 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. Arizona ranks 31st in SOG allowed per game. The Coyotes also allow the most SOG per game to Defensemen in the NHL.
  • Frank Vatrano over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4 SOG and over 5.8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Vancouver ranks 21st in SOG allowed per game. The Canucks also allow the 5th most SOG per game to Right Wingers.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Thursday, November 11th

By
Nick Hub
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Whos ready for a big night?! We have the World Series, NHL and NBA but we are headed to the Sun Belt! 43-32 (57%) to start the season in College Football and we look to have a big weekend starting tonight!  Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of our Premium Picks HERE, including monthly all access and my Early Bird College Basketball Full Season Special here at The Odds Breakers!

The Appalachian State Mountaineers travel south east to Conway, SC to take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at James C. Benton Field at Brooks Stadium tonight. The Mountaineers enter 5-1 SU, 3-5 ATS and 4-4 o/u while the Chanticleers are 71 SU, 3-4-1 ATS and also 4-4 o/u. This sets up as a revenge spot for Coastal since App St beat them last season 30-27 in Boone. These are 2 teams that average over 30 points per game, over 430 yards and over 6 yards per play on offense. Coastal has the advantage through the air but will that be slowed by the Mountaineers pass rush? The Chanticleers rank 91st in the nation in pass blocking and App State’s 19th ranked pass rush will look to get to Grayson McCall before he can throw the ball and keep him on the ground more than he is used to. Defensive is where we see the biggest difference between these 2 squads. Against FBS teams, Coastal ranks 113th in the nation by allowing 6.23 yards per play and it has increased a bit in conference play (6.55), ranking them 13th in in Sun Belt. The Mountaineers have played better in their last 3 games, ranking 30th in the nation in YPP (4.7) and rank 18th nationally by allowing just 310.25 yards per game this season. This line opened at 2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers and due to 54% of bets and 81% of the money is on App State tonight, the line moved up to the key number of -3. And that’s where we locked it in. Take App State -3

Week 10 CFB Best Bets(Part 1)

By
Michael Fordham
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October was a profitable month for me in CFB, and I’ll look to carry it over into the final month of the regular season.

I have 4 early best bets on this Week 10 slate for you but will be back with another slew of games by tomorrow morning. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Georgia -8 vs Tennessee–Saturday 2:30 PM CT

Tennessee has played at an elite level over the past few weeks, but I want to get a few things clear. First of all, did you know that Georgia averages more yards/play offensively than Tennessee this year? The narrative around this game would lead me to believe you probably didn’t. Secondly, regardless of what we saw last week, Tennessee’s defense is CLEARLY the worst unit on the field in this matchup and very vulnerable in their secondary.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett has had more put on his plate this year and has responded well. Bennett has thrown for 8.8 Y/A and turned the ball over just 3 times despite throwing 268 times on the season. We saw Kedon Slovis(Pitt), Bryce Young(Alabama), and Anthony Richardson(Florida) expose this Vols secondary; one step-up performance against Kentucky is not enough to make me forget that. The clear strength of Tennessee’s defense is going against the run, but I’m not conceding that will carry over into this matchup. Georgia features a pair of 6 YPC RB’s that closed out last week’s game in loud fashion, and this far and away the best OL Tennessee has faced this season.

Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker presents a scary matchup; hell, I bet him at 60:1 to win the Heisman before the season. Hooker has thrown for nearly 11 Y/A this season, just 1 INT, and is a major threat with his legs. Once again, though, this is far-and-away his toughest matchup of the season. 2021 Georgia was known for their dominant front 7, but I think 2022 Georgia will remembered for what is an elite secondary. Hooker is going to get his, but I think Georgia will do enough to limit him over time(more on this in the last paragraph). Tennessee’s run game is solid, but it’s not to the level it needs to be facing off with what’s still a very good Georgia front 7. I think Georgia can force the Vols into a lot of obvious passing downs; Hooker will get his, but can he do it for 60 minutes?

Tennessee runs at one of the fastest paces in CFB, and there are certain matchups where I expect that to work in their favor. This is not one of them. The amount of “big time” throws Hendon Hooker is going to have to make in this game given the amount of possessions I expect is insurmountable, in my opinion. Georgia’s defense is going to do enough to contain Hooker, and from there, Stetson Bennett, Brock Bowers, and the rest of this Georgia passing game will expose Tennessee’s secondary for what it is. Any line in the single-digits presents a good opportunity to back the ‘Dawgs.

*CFB(1u): Pittsburgh -3.5 vs Syracuse–Saturday 2:30 PM CT

Syracuse started the year 6-0 but has been exposed these past 2 weeks playing teams that are far superior in the trenches. Now, they go on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks and play… a team that is superior in the trenches.

Pitt sits at just 4-4 and is in the heels of a 2 game road losing streak, but I have not thrown in the towel on this Panthers team. The Panthers feature a physical running game led by Israel Abanikanda(5.9 YPC this year) and don’t have a glaring hole defensively. Stylistically, they are very similar to Notre Dame, a team that whipped up Syracuse in every facet last week. QB Kedon Slovis is certainly not a world beater, and you have to give Syracuse’s secondary credit for their ability to limit explosiveness over the top. However, the Orangemen have been outmatched up front and in the run game each of the past 2 weeks, and I expect that to carry over into this matchup. Syracuse also had their top corner Garrett Williams go down last week(for the second straight week), a loss I think allows Slovis just enough room to have an efficient day through the air.

Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader was taken out of last week’s game in the 3Q vs Notre Dame for reasons that are still not clear. Speculation aside, it is clear that Dino Babers is aware how outmatched his OL is in some of the Cuse’s tougher matchups. Already this season, they have allowed 5 sacks vs Clemson, 6 sacks vs Virginia, and 4 sacks last week vs Notre Dame. Pitt’s pass rush is an area of that defense I like, and personally, I don’t think they’ve scratched the surface of what they are capable of. Syracuse RB Sean Tucker is a very talented back, but he has received just 21 carries over these past 2 weeks given Syracuse knows they are outmatched up front. Pitt has been solid against the run this season, and the strength of their defense lies within the secondary. I expect many of the reasons Syracuse has struggled offensively these past 2 weeks to remain true in this matchup.

We’ve seen that Syracuse’s early season success and formula is not sustainable as they start to face physically superior teams. Sentiment may be low on Pitt, but this line is clearly short.

*CFB(1u): Utah 1H -10 vs Arizona–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

Arizona put up a good fight at home vs USC last week, but going on the road to Salt Lake City at night is an environment I don’t think this roster is ready for. Additionally, Utah is on a long week after winning short-handed at Washington State last Thursday night. 

Arizona’s defense is truly wretched; there’s absolutely nothing to like about this unit. Their pass rush has been non-existent in even the best of spots, which has led to an already bad secondary looking even worse. If that wasn’t bad enough, their run defense has been putrid as well. Oregon, Washington, USC, and CAL(!) have put up 45+ on the Wildcats already this season; Utah should fare similarly. I’ll admit that Utah is still not at peak health offensively; I don’t expect leading receiver Dalton Kincaid to play, and the Utes could be without both Tavion Thomas and Micah Bernard at RB. However, coming off a long week, Utah should get QB Cam Rising back, which is more than enough to get me on the Utes. Even if Utah has to settle with their lesser RB options, let’s not forget that CAL(!) ran for 354 yards on this Arizona defense.

Utah’s defense has underperformed this season, but I have seen signs of improvement in recent weeks. They have recorded 4 sacks in each of their past 2 games, and the pieces at the second and third levels are clearly there as well. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura is over 8 Y/A this year and is certainly a capable QB, but I think too much will fall on his shoulders in this matchup. Arizona’s run game has been solid on an aggregate basis, but they have also been bottled up in some of their tougher matchups. With my expectation that Utah will win up front on this side of the ball, I can’t trust de Laura to single-handedly carry Arizona’s offense against a superior defense.

Why isolate the 1H? Like I said, Utah is a beat up team that does not want to extend this game unnecessarily. If they were to build a comfortable lead, I could see them playing this one conservative down the stretch and rotating a lot of younger depth pieces in the game. Arizona’s offense could certainly move the ball on some of Utah’s lesser pieces, creating a “back door” opportunity for the Wildcats. We know we’re getting Utah’s best early, so I’ll isolate this one in the 1H.

*CFB(1u): NC State +4 vs Wake Forest–Saturday 7 PM CT

Wake Forest will hit the road for the 2nd straight week after getting run off the field at Louisville last week. Conversely, NC State is at home for the second straight week and have 2 extra days to prepare after a thrilling comeback win vs Virginia Tech last week.

NC State’s offense has underperformed this season; there’s no two ways around that. However, there’s reason to believe we see a good showing from the Pack on this side of the ball. After QB1 Devin Leary was ruled out for the season, Dave Doeren inexcusably turned to Jack Chambers to take over the offense. Chambers was a below average player at the FCS ranks across multiple seasons, and unsurprisingly, he was horrific for the Wolfpack this year. Out of desperation, Doeren turned to freshman MJ Morris last week; all Morris did was go 20/29 for 265 yards and 3 TD’s, leading the Wolfpack to a comeback win. While young, Morris is a clear upgrade for NC State at the QB position, and I really don’t view this as an overly tough matchup for the young QB. Wake Forest is not physical along their front 4 and has been leaky in their Back 7 as well. We saw all of this against Louisville last week, but it’s really been a common theme throughout the season. With NC State set to welcome back RB1 Demie Sumo-Karngbaye(5.8 YPC) on Saturday and already knowing how good they are along the OL, I don’t see why we can’t get a winning performance from the Pack offense.

The Wake Forest passing game is good, but the Demon Deacon offense lacks balance in a major way. Wake features a slew of mediocre backs that have even been stuffed by the likes of Liberty this year; NC State’s strength defensively is going up against the run. Wake’s OL is also very shaky, having allowed 7 sacks vs Louisville last week and 3+ sacks on three other occasions this season. Sam Hartman is an experienced QB having a good season, but I view this as a really tough matchup for him. NC State’s secondary held both DJ Uiagalelei and Jordan Travis to under 7 Y/A, and with the lack of balance in Wake’s offense, I don’t think they’ll be caught on their heels in this spot.

I think NC State wins this game outright, but I’ll take the points.

No NBA Premiums Today

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Unfortunately we have a really shitty slate of NBA games tonight, all two of them, and I can’t choose a side. I’ll take a deeper look at props and some other stuff during the day again, but I doubt I’ll have any plays. Here are my thoughts on the two contests:

Warriors at Magic (+8)
The Warriors are in the midst of a brutal road stretch to start the season. They can’t get away from the East Coast and they haven’t been faring well on this side of the country. Golden State is 2-6 ATS so far this season and 0-3 ATS and straight up on the current road trip. This might be a nice spot to take the Magic, who will treat this like one of the bigger games of their season. Plus they’re at home again and they’ll be staying in Orlando for the next SEVEN games. This is a big-time spot advantage for the Magic but the Warriors could also put together a pristine performance tonight and regress back to their championship average. For that reason, I have no play.
Nuggets at Thunder (+5.5)
My instinct is to take the Thunder– all they do is keep covering ATS and winning games that people don’t think they can. The Nuggets are also one of those teams that blow games like this. That said, Denver is learning how to play with more chemistry and on paper they’re a way better team. This line is right and I’d rather just observe how each team handles the other.

Podcast 74 – 22 – With Kelley Ford – NFL Week 9 Plays – College Football Week 8 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Kelley Ford @KFordRatings from @WeHateYourTeam comes on to discuss a huge slate of college football week 10 games!   First, Kiev talks about some big NFL trades as well as the smaller week 9 slate of games with some FREE PLAYS and leans!  Then, Kelley comes on and the guys talk about the difference between resume and power ratings for the college football playoffs.  After that, the guys get into some of the biggest games in college football with some more Big plays.  Finally, Kiev talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week.  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NFL Week 8 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The Jets out-gained the Patriots 387 to 288 yet lost 22-17.  A 3-1 turnover ratio and couldn’t stop the run hurt them.

The Packers yards were mainly garbage.

 

College Football Week 10 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Let Down Spots:

  • UCF at Memphis after beating Cincinnati outright.
  • Louisville hosting James Madison after beating Wake Forest

Get Up Spots:

  • Nebraska hosting Minnesota after losing to Illinois at home.
  • LA Tech hosting MTSU is in danger of missing a bowl.
  • ULM hosting Texas State in danger of missing a bowl.
  • Any team with 6 losses here on out.
  • LSU can prove something vs Alabama.  They are coming off the bye.  It is a night game.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Louisville hosting James Madison in sandwich looking to Clemson is one.
  • TCU looking past Texas Tech to Texas is one for sure.
  • Arkansas looking past Liberty to LSU is real.

 

College Football Week 9 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Louisiana Tech out-gained FIU 440 to 378 yet lost 42-34.  Equal turnovers and bad red zone efficiency hurt the Bulldogs.

Iowa State out-gained Oklahoma 373 to 332 yet lost 27-13.  A 3-1 turnover ratio and bad red zone hurt bad.

Penn State out-gained Ohio State 482 to 452 yet lost 44-31.  A nasty 4-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Akron out-gained Miami OH 396 to 268 yet lost 27-9.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and horrible red zone got the RedHawks.

Boston College out-gained UCONN 335-280 yet lost 13-3.  A 5-0 turnover ratio smoked them.

Louisville only outgained Wake Forest 410 to 400 yet won 48-21.   A massive 8-1 turnover ratio and horrible 1st half coaching killed Wake.

Marshall out-gained Coastal Carolina 416 to 271 yet lost 24-13.  A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them along with bad red zone efficiency at home.

UAB out-gained FAU 473 to 360 yet lost 24-17.  Equal turnovers at 0, but bad 4th down conversions and red zone hurt them.

San Diego State out-gained Fresno State 449 to 391 yet lost 32-28.  A 4th quarter meltdown and a 5-2 turnover ratio killed them.

 

 

 

 

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