Timberwolves -1 (-110), to win 1.5 units Both of these teams are coming off a game Sunday but one played considerably worse. The Timberwolves were blown off the floor by the Warriors but hey, at least they spared their starters a few minutes. Kuzma could be out of this contest and the Timberwolves match up well against a Wizards’ team that’s sturdy but not quick. I think Minnesota is too explosive for them – they get a nice win in response to Sunday’s letdown.
Hornets +11 (-110), to win 1 unit
Big time rest advantage for the Hornets. They haven’t played since Friday, while the Celtics battled hard and beat the Wizards on Sunday. Many of the Celtics’ starters didn’t play 30+ minutes in an effort to save some energy, but the Hornet should be able to tire out the Celtics, especially with Scary Terry back at the helm. The Hornets have looked better the last week– I’ll take a big dog here.
Pelicans -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Thunder are playing their 3rd game in five days Monday while the Pelicans are coming off 3 solid days of rest. At home, this is a smash spot for New Orleans. Even if McCollum or Ingram have to sit, this is a deep, playoff ready team that should easily handle the Thunder on their home floor.
This is the spot that Jacksonville has to get it right. I have to say that the Jaguars are looking pretty healthy here coming of the bye, and if this team can just hold on to their leads and start playing like winners, they have a good shot to cover this thing. The numbers on these teams are really closer than one might think. Baltimore is a net positive .1 yards per play while Jacksonville is dead even. The Ravens rank 9th in offensive EPA to Jacksonville ranking 11th. The Jaguars rank 18th in defensive EPA while the Ravens rank 17th. If the Jaguars can just keep the turnover margin equal or better in this game, I think that they cover this spread coming off the bye.
Jaguars +4 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Panthers to +8.5 with the Steelers to +8.5 – 2 stars
3-2 night, but I sure wish it was 4-1. I swear to God some bullshit happens on a nightly basis in the NBA. What in the fuck were the Hawks doing? Too much mashed taters and gravy in your system, little boys? Soft athletes these days. Anyway, a winning night. Onto the next, though there’s not much value today.
Also — I will have ZERO NBA picks tomorrow, FYI. My Sunday tradition.
Mavs -2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both these teams need a win and they’re both off extended rest. The Raptors are great at home but this feels like a Luka takeover game. And at their best, Dallas is a top 5-6 team from my purview. Toronto is awesome, but not quite there. A testier battle than people think, I got Dallas coming out the victor by 5 points.
Lakers/Spurs 1H over 112.5 (-110), to win 2 units
This total is way too low. Yea the Lakers defense is pretty good lately, but these two teams shot HORRENDOUSLY last night. Expect some regression from two teams who usually run at a fast pace. At least early, this should be closer to 120.
This is the best chance Michigan has had in a long time. Like I said, I think Ohio State is somewhat fake news. Idk if the Wolverines win, but this feels like a game that’ll come down to the end.
Penn State -19 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Michigan State is in turmoil right now after 7 of their players were charged in that gross melee that happened inside the locker room. Penn State is in a perfect spot to end their season with a bang. Take the Nittany Lions.
Texas A&M +9.5 (-102), to win 1 unit
College station will be rocking and LSU, who’s had a great year with Brian Kelly at the helm, are in a really tough spot against an A&M team that can play up to their competition in the right spots.
Notre Dame +4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Notre Dame is really good against air attacks (6.3 yards per pass allowed, top 20 in the country) and they should be able to run the ball all over USC. This feels like a closer game than people think.
Two lines instantly changed when we sent out our picks and I’m sure most of you are seeing those lines now, so we’ll make a slight edit, below in red.
We had a nice 5-2, +5 unit day with our Turkey teaser added to the mix. Not too shabby! Let’s get some more Ws today in the association we’ve owned for 2 years and running–
NBA Premiums, 11.25
Knicks -4 at Bovada, to win 1.5 units
This is a much better spot for a Knicks team, coming off a road win 4 days ago, which is excessive rest in the NBA, even though they weren’t playing their best basketball. They still scored 129 points and found a rhythm in their 2-point game. Lately the Blazers are sinking and their defensive efficiency has gone way down. I hate a road spot for a team that’s already declining, coming fresh off Thanksgiving and into this contest away from family. This is the 2nd to last leg of the Blazers’ east coast road trip, while the Knicks get to stay at home all weekend. I handicap this at Knicks -5.5 so there’s a very slight disparity but I’m pulling the trigger because of the spot.
Kings/Celtics 1H over 122 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is an inflated line for sure but it deserves to be there. The Kings finally had a down game offensively but we saw that coming the other night. Now they’re refreshed off the break and going up against the only other team that’s been as efficient and explosive as they have in November. The Kings and Celtics are the #3 and #1 scoring offenses in the first half and their tempo should each catalyze the other into a real “I can do it better than you” kind of situation. Full game could slow down again, so we take the first half.
Hawks -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
Well I don’t understand this line. The Rockets haven’t played since Sunday, I get it, but this is still a bad situation for an injured team against a healthy Hawks squad. The Hawks should be able to take advantage of the fact that Houston’s big man, Alperen Sengun, is doubtful today. When the Hawks have an interior advantage it’s usually bad news for their opponent, especially with Trae’s perimeter ability and Murray’s short-range game at the top of the key. The Rockets also have a quick turnaround game tomorrow. Unless the Rockets have their game of the year, I don’t see them able to cover.Only 1 unit out of respect for a weird line – Atlanta beat this team by 10 early in the year when Houston was healthier and more competitive.
Bucks -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I get it, it’s tough to take Milwaukee after a disappointing loss against the Bulls at home, but this is a great setup for them to get some revenge. I love that Love and LaVert will be sitting out tonight, which should give the Bucks’ second unit a very solid advantage. Giannis didn’t play to his full capacity two nights ago but I’m sure he’ll be all-in and as aggressive as ever against a Cavs team that’s a real threat in the eastern conference. Jrue Holiday is probable, thank God, while this is the start of a tough road trip for Cleveland. All Bucks for me.
Pelicans/Grizzlies over 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
CJ McCollum out for the Pelicans should only make New Orleans run faster – he’s a great player obviously but he’s less likely to push the pace. The Grizzlies are running at a much faster tempo, top 10 over their last 5 games, and New Orleans should attack the basket with ferocity like they always do. The Grizzlies shot poorly in their first matchup and will look to correct those inefficiencies tonight, while the Pelicans are top 5 in OFF EFF lately and I trust that their chemistry will continue against a less able defense in Memphis.
We had a nice 5-2, +5 unit day with our Turkey teaser added to the mix. Not too shabby! Let’s get some more Ws today in the association we’ve owned for 2 years and running–
NBA Premiums, 11.25
Knicks -4 at Bovada, to win 1.5 units
This is a much better spot for a Knicks team, coming off a road win 4 days ago, which is excessive rest in the NBA, even though they weren’t playing their best basketball. They still scored 129 points and found a rhythm in their 2-point game. Lately the Blazers are sinking and their defensive efficiency has gone way down. I hate a road spot for a team that’s already declining, coming fresh off Thanksgiving and into this contest away from family. This is the 2nd to last leg of the Blazers’ east coast road trip, while the Knicks get to stay at home all weekend. I handicap this at Knicks -5.5 so there’s a very slight disparity but I’m pulling the trigger because of the spot.
Kings/Celtics 1H over 122 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is an inflated line for sure but it deserves to be there. The Kings finally had a down game offensively but we saw that coming the other night. Now they’re refreshed off the break and going up against the only other team that’s been as efficient and explosive as they have in November. The Kings and Celtics are the #3 and #1 scoring offenses in the first half and their tempo should each catalyze the other into a real “I can do it better than you” kind of situation. Full game could slow down again, so we take the first half.
Hawks -7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Well I don’t understand this line. The Rockets haven’t played since Sunday, I get it, but this is still a bad situation for an injured team against a healthy Hawks squad. The Hawks should be able to take advantage of the fact that Houston’s big man, Alperen Sengun, is doubtful today. When the Hawks have an interior advantage it’s usually bad news for their opponent, especially with Trae’s perimeter ability and Murray’s short-range game at the top of the key. The Rockets also have a quick turnaround game tomorrow. Unless the Rockets have their game of the year, I don’t see them able to cover.Only 1 unit out of respect for a weird line – Atlanta beat this team by 10 early in the year when Houston was healthier and more competitive.
Bucks -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I get it, it’s tough to take Milwaukee after a disappointing loss against the Bulls at home, but this is a great setup for them to get some revenge. I love that Love and LaVert will be sitting out tonight, which should give the Bucks’ second unit a very solid advantage. Giannis didn’t play to his full capacity two nights ago but I’m sure he’ll be all-in and as aggressive as ever against a Cavs team that’s a real threat in the eastern conference. Jrue Holiday is probable, thank God, while this is the start of a tough road trip for Cleveland. All Bucks for me.
Pelicans/Grizzlies over 229 (-110), to win 1.5 units
CJ McCollum out for the Pelicans should only make New Orleans run faster – he’s a great player obviously but he’s less likely to push the pace. The Grizzlies are running at a much faster tempo, top 10 over their last 5 games, and New Orleans should attack the basket with ferocity like they always do. The Grizzlies shot poorly in their first matchup and will look to correct those inefficiencies tonight, while the Pelicans are top 5 in OFF EFF lately and I trust that their chemistry will continue against a less able defense in Memphis.
This handicap is one of the simplest ones in the book. The big question is, how many points in Hendon Hooker worth to the team? Looking at how bad the Vol’s defense is, I have to say at least 8. This is a very strange spot and the Vols are probably trying to keep their heads up with backup Quarterback Joe Milton who used to play for Michigan and failed miserably. There is a reason why Milton is the backup here and I do not think he has had any aspirations of being a starter since he left Michigan. In saying that, My power ratings have this a 13.5 point spread, but it is very hard for me to imagine how this team picks themselves up after losing their chances of being in the college football playoffs. If this team picks themselves up, beats a bowl hungry Commodores and covers this large spread, I will tip my cap to them. In the mean time I will take the points.
Vandy +14 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Middle Tennessee vs FIU +19.5 O/U 55
This game is disgusting and I advise you not to watch it. In saying that I think that we should bet on it. FIU is one of the worst teams in football and their season is certainly over, but here they are playing a defense that gives up 5.47 yards per play and ranks 75th in explosiveness. Both teams play fast ranking top 25 in tempo which really favors the over. Middle Tennessee State has a pretty good offense averaging 29 points per game and should have no trouble scoring against a defense that gives up 38 points per game. I think that I can get 21 points out of FIU here at home and according to this spread, the Blue Raiders should then get at least 40. Take the over.
Over 55 – 2 stars
Michigan vs Ohio State -8 O/U 57
The big game is finally here and Ohio State has been waiting all year for this. Before last week when Tennessee lost, this was looked at as a potential playoff game but now I am not so sure about that. Ohio State for the year is number 1 in EPA margin while Michigan is number 3. I think that bodes well for a middle of the road total of 57 barring any bad weather. Looking at how these two teams match up, Michigan is number 5 on both offensive and defensive success rate while Ohio State is 8th and 7th respectively. Ohio State has the net yards per play advantage at 2.86 to 2.29 and they are playing at home. The weather so far looks decent in the lower 50s with no wind. This should help Ohio State out being that they have the flashier and more explosive offense. From an injury note, Michigan is coming into this game pretty banged up, but they really dodged a bullet last week with Blake Corum leaving the game, yet seen walking around ok. Michigan is hopeful to be getting their tight end Luke Schoonmaker back and Ohio State might get Jaxson Smith Njigba finally to finish off the season in style. From a matchup perspective, there isn’t any huge advantages minus that Ohio State ranks higher in explosive plays at 30th to Michigan’s 122nd. Michigan has a slight turnover advantage. Both teams do not have a great strength of schedule. I have to say that before last week, Michigan looked the more resilient team, but now I have questions on both sides of the ball. What I will say is that my power number on this game Is Ohio State -6.5 giving them 3 for home field advantage. I have Ohio State the better team due to their yards per play and scoring efficiencies, but it certainly doesn’t warrant a spread past the seven, and that is where I think that there is some value on the Wolverines here. Ohio State is a second half team which showed last week, the 1st week vs Notre dame, at Penn State, and of course the stinker against Northwestern. Take Michigan +8, but wait and make sure that Corum is playing. I also would consider a buy back in the second half for a middle.
Fake changing to fact with wooden cubes. ( 3d render )
The Bears out-gained the Falcons 288 to 280 yet lost to the Falcons 27-24. They won the turnover battle 2-1 but had bad special teams giving up a TD and too many called penalties.
Cleveland’s yards were mainly garbage time vs the Bills.
The Giants out-gained the Lions 413 to 325 yet lost 31-18. A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
I think that Tony Pollard just scored another touchdown. Man did the Cowboys man-handle the Vikings last week. Now they faced a well coached division rival in the 7-3 NY Giants. Why is this a huge spread for both teams late in the season at 7-3? Well, that is because of luck and schedule. The Giants are a very lucky team ranking top 3 in the luck factor and ranking dead last in strength of schedule. The Giant’s best win was against an injured Baltimore team this year, and an overrated Titans team. The Cowboys rank a huge 3rd in defensive EPA while the Giants rank 22nd. The Giants give up a massive 5.3 rushing yards per attempt while the Cowboys average 4.7 themselves on the ground. The G-Men are also a net-negative -.6 yards per play to the Cowboys at +.5, and that is counting the Cooper Rush games as well. Finally, the Giants have cluster injuries now at their receiver positions with their best in WanDale Robinson going out for the season just last week. new York is also very banged up on the offensive line. Take the Cowboys in a snoozer and go eat some Pumpkin Pie!
