We have a MEGA show for you today! Lou Finocchiaro @GambLou and Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from VSIN joins us for a massive UFC 280 and NFL Week 7 card! First, Kiev talks about some college football and NFL ATS trends so far for the year. Next, Kiev gives out some college football FREE PLAYS! Then, Will comes on and the guys talk some baseball as well as New York football. Next, Will and Kiev @OBKiev get into the full NFL week 7 slate of games with some plays! After that, Lou comes on and the guys get right into a MASSIVE UFC 280 card with a lot of agreement and some slight disagreement on the main event. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp money movement from the week. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Clippers/Lakers under 223.5 (-105), to win 1 unit Even with a CLEAR size advantage, the Lakers couldn’t muster any significant offense last night against Golden State. 38 garbage-time fourth quarter points helped them eclipse the century mark, but they probably shouldn’t have. Westbrook (LOL) and LeBron were efficient from the floor, but the rest of this clumsy LAL mix only shot 35% on Tuesday night. That should only get worse against Ty Lue’s LA Clippers. Last year they were one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and a top 10 defense for most of the year. And now Kawhi is back. The Claw and his supporting cast should be able to limit the lake-show throughout this game and in the battle of L.A., it’s usually pretty contentious. Give me the under.
After another solid week (5-2) in CFB, we are back for free lean for Saturday!! We are now 34-21 62% (+$7,065) in College Football and look to have another big weekend starting Thursday night! Best of luck if you tail!
Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!
The Minnesota Golden Gophers head to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions this Saturday at Beaver Stadium. This will be PSU’s white out game this season and it may be the best atmosphere in sports but they are just 9-8 in these games and we have an unranked Gophers team coming in for the prime time game a week ahead of the matchup between the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes. Penn State has not covered in the past 3 years the week before playing Ohio State and lost their last 2 outright! Minnesota ranks in the top 5 in running the football and they will be up against a PSU defense that ranks 111th in defending the run and 113th in tackling. The Gophers are the better overall team in my opinion and specifically will run all over Penn State to cover this spread and wont be surprised if they win this one outright. If you like it, grab it now because I see it closing right on the key number of 3.
This is mainly for new premium customers: make sure you add these plays to your UFC card this Saturday; love these angles!
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):
Main Event
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units
Over 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw. for the win
The Padres weren’t able to come through for us last night, but I’m back today with a play in Game 1 of the ALCS. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+125) vs Yankees–6:37 PM CT
This is a terrible spot for the Yankees; their ALDS series with the Guardians went the distance, and due to the postponement of Monday night’s game, concluded last night. This is a quick turnaround facing a well-rested Astros team that quite frankly dominated the Yankees throughout the regular season.
Not only that, the Yankees must face a truly elite arm in Astros SP Justin Verlander. While Verlander struggled against the Mariners last week, he held impeccable numbers throughout the regular season(1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) and is one of the easiest arms to back in baseball. Perhaps most impressive is that Verlander allowed HR’s at the lowest rate since 2010 after struggling with the long ball in past seasons. In addition to the potential “hangover” spot, the Yankees were underwhelming in this role down the stretch of the season, holding a poor 90 wRC+ vs righties on the road since August 1st.
Yankees SP Jameson Taillon is not a “postseason” caliber arm and will be starting today out of necessity. He struck out nearly 2 batters less on the road this year and allowed a staggering 1.7 HR/9 on the road this year as well. 5 separate projected starters for Houston hold an OPS above 1.000 off of Taillon, and this should be a spot where a consistent Astros lineup can take the top off of a vulnerable arm.
The Astros bullpen is clearly more rested for this game, but they also proved to be more reliable and deep down the stretch run of the season. The stars align for a play on the Astros -1.5 getting a solid +125 return.
Hi All! One hell of a start eh? We go 3-0 on opening night and that’s a good sign for our handle and assertions in the ol’ association. Always treating cautiously and not trying to get overexposed by night two, I’m adding just one more play (in red) and a parlay tonight. Let’s keep stacking units early!
October 19
Heat 1H -3 or less, to win 1 unit
The Bulls won’t start off as hot this year, in my opinion, while the Heat are already getting discredited and underestimated by NBA “experts.” Miami is at home and we’ve seen Chicago crawl back into these games– I’d rather take a 1st half line on a Heat team that’s just waiting to bounce on a softie like Chicago.
Hawks -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks won’t have to be that impressive to win by double digits here, in my opinion. The Rockets are one of the least talented teams in the NBA since they lost Christian Wood and the line is heading in our direction.
Hornets ML (-105), to win 1 unit
Maybe this is a home-court love kinda line but Popovich has been adamant that they’re in a rebuilding phase and even though the Hornets and without L. Ball to start the season, I still think they have a much better roster. Popovich will coach up his young studs and won’t make it easy but I like Charlotte to get the W.
Mavericks +4.5 (110), to win 1.5 units
This line is crazy, if you ask me. Even at home, there are all kinds of sell-signs on the Suns’ right now. The debacle with their owner, they’re trying to trade a key piece in Jae Crowder, Ayton seems like he’s barely interested in playing basketball. No thanks. I love the addition of Christian Wood for Dallas and I think the Mavericks are quietly building one of the most effective lineups in the NBA. They bested Phoenix in the postseason and that wasn’t a fluke.
Grizzlies -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has come down too much. Memphis is ready to pounce and the 2022-23 season, according to Grizzlies’ hopefuls, could be their year. Jalen Brunson’s addition to the Knicks is a big deal but he’s not an easy player to incorporate into your gameplan. Even on the Mavericks, Dinwiddie and Brunson and Luka were often a more disparate group than a group with obvious chemistry, and the Knicks aren’t a team that can figure things out quickly. Perhaps over time they will, but this line dropping to 6 has me auto-betting on Memphis. They attack with such ferocity and speed and I don’t think the Knicks can hang late.
Keegan Bradley takes the Zozo Championship capturing his fifth win on the PGA Tour. He’s been playing some great golf as of late. Rickie Fowler has also seemed to turn his game around with back-to-back top-6 finishes. He has another sponsors exemption, so he’ll be teeing it up at Congaree this week.
The 6th edition CJ Cup takes place this week at Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina. Despite it being the sixth edition, this will be the first time it’s been held at this course.
The CJ Cup was first established during the 2017-28 season. For the first three years, it was held at Nine Bridges Golf Course in South Korea. Then in 2020, it was shifted to Shadow Creek Golf Course before being moved again in 2021 to the Summit Club. This year, it will be held at Congaree Golf Club for the first time. Oddly enough, Tom Fazio designed Shadow Creek, the Summit Club, and Congaree Golf Cub.
Congaree Golf Club is one of the newer courses on Tour being established in 2017. It was founded by two billionaires Dan Friedkin and Bob McNair. After McNair passed, the course experienced a lack of memberships. They took an interesting approach to the solution and now have roughly 250 “ambassadors” instead of members. These “ambassadors” are very prominent individuals that help promote the course.
With the cancellation of the RBC Canadian Open in 2021, the PGA needed an event to fill that spot. The Palmetto Championship was created and Congaree Golf Club was elected to play host. Back in 2019, Congaree also made a pitch to host the 2025 President’s Cup but were unsuccessful.
72-Hole Record (Congaree GC): 273, Garrick Higgo (2021, The Palmetto Championship)
18-Hole Record (Congaree GC): 64, Wes Roach (First round, 2021), Ryan Armour (Fourth round, 2021), Will Gordon (Fourth round, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Congaree Golf Club is a Par 71 that plays 7,655 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. Tom Fazio modeled this layout after courses of the Australian Sandbelt. There’s virtually no rough with over 130 acres of sand/ waste areas. Water also comes into play on over half of the holes.
The four Par 3’s range between 170 yards and 230 yards. At the 2021 Palmetto Championship, all four of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 14 is the longest Par 3. Players will have a fairly straightforward shot onto one of the largest greens on the course. The only worry is the waste area along the front right of the green.
There are three Par 4’s that are over 500 yards. No. 3 and 15 are the shortest Par 4’s listed at 360 yards with the longest being No. 8, at 540 yards.
No. 8 is the signature hole of Congaree. It’s the longest Par 4 on the course playing 540 yards. Off the tee, players will have to hit over a body of water onto a narrow fairway. They’ll hit into an elevated green that’s surrounded by bunkers on all sides. If they miss short right, that same body of water they faced off the tee will come into play.
The three Par 5’s are No. 2, 4, and 12. No 4 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. All of the Par 5’s had a scoring average below par at the 2021 Palmetto Championship.
No. 4 is the longest Par 5 listed at 645 yards. It’s fairly straight with the off-the-tee with no real issues. As players approach the green, water does come into play off the right side along with several bunkers.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 8
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Sand Saves
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
This week’s event will feature a 78-player field with no cut. Six of the top 10 in world rankings will tee it up at Congaree Golf Club. The field is comprised of the top 60 PGA Tour players from the previous season’s FedEx Cup standings, winners of the KPGA Championship and Genesis Championship on the Korean Tour, the top 3 players on the Korean Tour money list, the top available player from the Asian Tour, the top available Korean player from the Asian Tour, the top next 3 available Korean players from the Official World Golf Ranking, and 8 sponsor exemptions.
Rory McIlroy (+700), is the defending champion winning the 2021 CJ Cup at Summit. He’ll be making his first start on the PGA Tour this season. He did not play in the 2021 Palmetto Championship so this will be his first appearance at Congaree Golf Club.
Jon Rahm (+900), is coming off a win at the Spanish Open. He’ll be making his first start of the 2022-23 season. Rahm finished 17th at the CJ Cup back in 2020 and did not play in the 2021 Palmetto Championship.
Scottie Scheffler (+1200), will be making his first start of the 2022-23 season. We last saw him at Quail Hollow where he had a disappointing President’s Cup performance. He’s played in two CJ Cup’s finishing T52 in 2020 and T38 in 2021. He also did not play in the 2021 Palmetto Championship.
Justin Thomas (+1400), has won the CJ Cup twice before. Both times when it was hosted at Nine Bridges. JT will be making his first start of the season after playing at the President’s Cup. He did not play in the 2021 Palmetto Championship so this will be his first appearance at Congaree Golf Club.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200), will be making his first start of the 2022-23 season. He has a great course history finishing T10 in the 2021 Palmetto Championship.
Previous Winners in the field (CJ Cup): Rory McIlroy (’21), Justin Thomas (’19,’17)
Notable Withdraws: None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Unlike most of the field, Fitzpatrick has played here before finishing T10 at the 2021 Palmetto Championship. He made a name for himself last year winning the U.S. Open at the Country Club. Following that victory, he finished T6/T21/T5/T48/T15 to end the year. Since the finish of the 2020-21 PGA Tour season, Fitzpatrick has played several times on the European Tour. In those four Euro Tour events, he played moderately well. The highlight of those events was his 2nd place finish at the Italian Open.
He was 70th in Driving Distance, 48th in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Off the Tee, and 6th in Sand Save % on the Tour last year. We saw him take a major step forward with his game last season. While he isn’t the longest off the tee his ball-striking and sand play should make up for it.
Viktor Hovland (+2800) – DraftKings
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Last year on Tour, he finished the season strong with T4/T20/T35/T15 placements. In his last three professional starts, he finished T5 at the BMW PGA Championship, T34 at the Italian Open, and T5 at the Zozo Championship. His last win on Tour was at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba and based on his recent strokes gained numbers he looks to be primed for a win soon.
Hovland is one of the best iron players on Tour with his short game being his Achilles heel. As of late, he has been trending upwards in that category gaining strokes in each of his last two professional events.
Sam Burns (+2800) – DraftKings
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Sam Burns struggled to stay the least at the Presidents Cup going (0-3-2). However, he rebounded nicely with a T30 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He gained strokes off the tee and on approach but lost stokes putting. Last year, he finished 120th in SG: Putting but has gained strokes in that category in nearly each of his last eleven starts. If he is able to have a decent week with the flat stick, I like him to contend.
Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Tyrell Hatton has been in great form as of late with back to back top-10 finishes on the European Tour. Last year he was horrendous in terms of SG: Off the Tee but in the one event that did have Shotlink data, he gained nearly a stroke in that category.
Last year, he finished T2 at the Palmetto Championship held here at Congaree. He gained strokes in every category besides putting. If we look at his recent putting performances, he’s gained strokes in that category in seven of his last eight professional starts. He’s shown he has the game to do well here so if he can stay hot with the flat stick, I think he’s on the front page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Just Missed: Collin Morikawa (+3300)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Jon Rahm (+110) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Jon Rahm has yet to make a start on the PGA Tour this year but just won his third Spanish Open. He joins Seve Ballesteros as the only player to win that event three times. Before that win, he finished T2 at the BMW PGA Championship.
Rahm has never played at Congaree so we’ll have to look at his finishes at course comps. He finished 2nd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T8 at the 2021 PGA Championship.
It was a down year for Rahm who entered the season as the Number 1 golfer in the world. His only victory was at the Mexico Open with an extremely weak field. However, he did finish the year strong with three top-20 placements. His distance off the tee should allow him a significant advance as we saw with Garrick Higgo. Based on his recent play, he’s been trending in all the right directions and looks to be more comfortable with the flat stick than ever. I wouldn’t be shocked if wins this event but I like him to finish inside the top-10 even more at plus money.
Justin Thomas (+150) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
JT will be making his first start of the season this week at Congaree. He’s won this event twice before (’17,’19) but has never played at this course. If we look at his course comp history finished T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
In terms of key stats, Justin Thomas ranks highly in nearly every category. He was 14th in Driving Distance, 8th in SG: Approach, 16th in SG: Off the Tee, and 8th in Sand Save % on the Tour last year. In his career he’s also seemed to favor the bermudagrass putting surface which is another plus.
Total Risk on Top 10 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Shane Lowry (+105) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Shane Lowry has played in the CJ Cup twice before finishing T28 in 2020 and T54 in 2021. He did not play in the 2021 Palmetto Championship so he does not have any course history here. If we look at course comps he finished 2nd at The Honda Classic and T4 at the 2021 PGA Championship. He’ll be making his first start of the season since finishing T12 at the BMW Championship.
Lowry won the BMW PGA Championship recently on the European Tour, so we know he’s in good form. When you combine his play off the tee with his elite ball-striking ability, Shane should be in contention come Sunday.
Max Homa (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Max Homa has been on an absolute heater as of late. Earlier this year, he successfully defended his title at the Fortinet Championship. Following that win, he hopped on a plane and helped the US defeat the International team in the President’s Cup. Most recently, he finished T20 at the Shriners Children’s Open. He has not played at Congaree before but does have some solid performances at course comps. Homa finished T15 in the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua.
Homa ranks 51st in SG: Approach, 22nd in SG: Off the Tee, 10th in SG: Tee to Green, and 39th in Driving Distance. The lone worry for Max this week is his ability out of the sand. He doesn’t rank highly in that category which could get him in some trouble. However, his overall form and course comps still render him a good play this week. Remember, we don’t need him to win, just to finish inside the top-20.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the CJ Cup in South Carolina: 5.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
