The BULLS have only lost one 3rd QTR all year and that was when they were WAY up on the Pacers a few games ago. Bet them LIVE -1.5 or less to cover the 3rd if they’re down. That’s an official 1 unit bet if/when that happens.
NBA Premiums, 11.1
These damn NBA plays going 50% for like 4 fucking days in a row and it’s starting to piss me off. Onto another day, cuz that’s all we can do.
Bulls 1H ML (anything -120 or less), to win 1.5 units
The Nets are at home, complete with STOP ANTISEMITISM signs right by Kyrie as he plays, and this Nets team just still isn’t showing me much. They could have easily lost last night’s game to the Pacers, nearly letting them come back and really only outplaying them in the 1st quarter. The Bulls are a full 3 days of rest and even though they’ve sucked on the road for quite some time now (including a 20-24 record last season), I think they can win this contest. I’d just rather take them in the first half. Chicago is one of the best first half scoring teams in the NBA, averaging 60 points a game. We’ll go with Chicago early.
Warriors/Heat under 227 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Heat’s pace drops even lower at home and it’s the same with Golden State on the road– they succumb to the other team’s tempo. The Heat are allowing teams to score too many points too often and after facing one fast-paced team after another, they’ll be looking to bring the clamps on defense and slow the Warriors’ pace in a revenge game. Miami hasn’t been great in areas where they’re usually sterling; things like defensive rebounds, defense in the paint, and creating turnovers. The Warriors players commented on how successfully they played defense in their matchup against Miami last Thursday and they’ll be comfortable again here today. If the Heat make the improvements we expect, we love the under.
Thunder -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Thunder are doing a few things really well right now. They’re not turning the ball over, their ball-movement has been pristine, they’re creating second-chance opportunities, and they’re playing some pretty damn good defense (52.7% opponent effective FG %). The Magic are very hurt and in another tough road spot, while OKC stays home until this weekend. There’s a lot to like about the Thunder here. Go OKC!
Podcast 73 – 22 – College Football Week 9 and NFL Week 8 Recap – Fantasy Football Week 9 – Sports Betting
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college, UFC and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 9! Finally, Kiev is solo today getting into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Halloween Prop Play
My man Nick Richards! If you haven’t followed me on twitter yet(@freecheesekid) you wouldn’t understand my undying love for this man so far this season.
Nick Richards is a 7’0″ freak athlete. He is currently on the bench for the Charlotte Hornets, but I suspect by the trade deadline, Mason Plumlee will be sent away and this will be his job. He is very solid in the pick and roll game. Mostly because for a 7’0″ true center, guys just don’t move like he does. He reminds me of Hassan Whiteside. It took him 3 NBA seasons to see the court but that 3rd year, he erupted (Richards is now in his 3rd season). Richards isn’t the defensive player Hassan was but he has the height and mobility to snag any board near him.
Anyways, he averages just a hair under 3 minutes less than Plumlee (21.7) so he is getting PT (26th for all centers). I can only imagine he might start creeping towards even minutes with Plumlee. Lamelo Ball and Richards will be a nice pick and roll combo when he returns, and I might look to add his points prop when he does.
Richards is averaging 7.5 REB/gme. His total is set at 5.5 tonight -130(BetMGM) and has been almost all season. I think it should be at least 6.5 around -115 odds. He has gone over 5 of the 6 games this year. The lone game he didn’t get 5 rebounds, both teams were on fire shooting in the 60% range until the end. There was minimal chances and he still was only 2 boards shy. He had 2 boards slip out of his hands and another taken, which would have netted him 7 on the night.
Sacramento is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league, 27th (8.2 Orbs/g). This should give Nick plenty of opportunity to get his boards on the defensive end.
He is also 1st in ORB% and 17th in True Rebound %. THIS GUY GET BOARDS.
His number on Oct. 29th was 5.5 for -105… Vegas is catching on but still give us the number we need to play it. There is Monday Night Football and NBA props are generally softer when there is primetime football.
Take Nick Richards o5.5 Rebound -130 (BetMGM)
-If you wait you may be able to get a better number, this is the only line I currently see. Typically his lie doesn’t come out until an hour before tip-off.
World Series Game 3 Play
The Astros scuffled down the stretch in Game 1 of the World Series(thanks, Verlander), and I didn’t hand out a play in Game 2. It’s been a profitable year for us in MLB, and I’m back tonight with a play in Game 3 of the World Series. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5(-135) vs Astros–7:03 PM CT
Is -135 a little more juice than I usually like laying? Sure. However, we should not be getting a 1.5 here, plain and simple.
The Phillies handled righties in their home ballpark better than any team in baseball over the final 2 months of the season(136 wRC+), and that has carried over into the postseason. The Phillies have crushed the likes of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove at Citizens Bank Park here in the month of October. Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr does have postseason pedigree, but a large chunk of that dates back to the 2017 ALCS. I’m not afraid to bet against McCullers because he has walked over 4.5 batters/9 on the road each of the past 2 seasons and looked shaky against the Yankees in his last start. McCullers is no more equipped to hold down this Phillies lineup than any of the other 4 aforementioned arms; I think Philadelphia puts up at least 2 in the F5.
I would lean towards the Phillies F5 ML as well given the Astros held below average numbers vs righties on the road over the final half of the regular season. Two factors are holding me off, however. The Astros did fare well against Gerrit Cole in Yankee Stadium the last time we saw them in this role and are in general a lineup I’m not comfortable going against in the postseason. And, do I really wanting to be trusting Noah Syndergaard in the World Series? He is not a main contributor to this club, and I wasn’t impressed with how he fared down the stretch after getting dealt over from the Angels. Of course, I could never play on the Phillies over the full game given they hold a massive bullpen disadvantage in the later innings.
Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5 is the play… best of luck to all who partake!
NBA Premiums, 10.31
Let’s try and forget about the insanity of this NFL weekend and move forward to a sport that at least makes more sense to us on a day-to-day basis, the NBA.
NBA Premiums (23-11-1, +12.23 units):
Hornets/Kings over 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
There’s a chance this line moves against us, what else is new, but it won’t make me like it any less. The last two games for the Hornets are a bit of an aberration– the Hornets played down to the Magic and shot VERY poorly, and then the Golden State Warriors tried to assert better defense on them in what was ultimately an OT loss. The Hornets have now shot poorly in two straight contests and they’re officially way overdue for a big scoring game. The Kings are exclusively in high scoring games and don’t play much defense. I like how these two teams match up, too, with bigger athletes on the Kings but more physical athletes for Charlotte. Offense wins and points win– we get an over.
Nets/Pacers under 237.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Although the Nets are certainly due for some positive regression of offense, it doesn’t mean they will blow the doors off the Pacers in this matchup. Something’s off in Brooklyn but it starts with their defense. Simmons needs to settle in and he’s an excellent defender when he does, and hopefully in a rematch there’s no way they let Haliburton and company completely dominate them again. The Nets played piss-poor, awful defense in that game and shouldn’t call themselves a pro basketball team after it. I think variance hits Indiana and the Nets get some good feels in this one, and starting with their defense.
Raptors -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors could be 4-2 or 5-1, they’re good and very well-coached. The Hawks are a fake-news-4-2 and easily could have been 0-6. They’re just not rounding into form yet and I think it shows against a team with a lot of chemistry, length, toughness, and in a great spot at home. All Raptors for me.
Grizzlies anything -4.5 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
I think Ja Morant might return in this game and even if he doesn’t, the Memphis Grizzlies are #1 in offensive efficiency and should answer the bell after a game where they just didn’t play any defense. Explosive and when motivated with high discipline, I expect the Grizzlies to overwhelm a Jazz squad that’s still playing over their heads.
NBA Thoughts, 10.30
What’s up everyone!
Taking a break from the NBA again on Sunday and that’s probably a good decision. Too many games with competing narratives:
- The Celtics (-9) need to get-right but the Wizards are good enough to hang in
- The Clippers should handle the Pelicans and they also need to get more Ws but the Pelican have been feisty in almost every situation
- The Mavericks (-9.5) are in the same situation as Boston
- The Spurs and T-Wolves over is a look but that line feels right
- I want to bet on the Nuggets (duh), but I think this might be the spot where LAL finally gets a win.
Lots of tough games to call and Sunday ain’t my day historically. Enjoy your bets, if you have any; we’ll be back Monday!
NFL Week 8 Not-So-Scary Free Plays – Sports Betting
Washington vs Indianapolis -3 O/U 39.5
This line moved pretty quickly to -3 when Matt Ryan was announced as benched. I think that it is hard to determine how good Sam Ehlinger is, but what we do know is that young quarterbacks add more variance to the game. The Colts are stacked at the skill positions with their weakness at the offensive line. As long as Frank Reich designs some plays where he can have his young quarterback get rid of the ball quickly, I think that they should be ok. The Commies rank 29th in pass DVOA having a bad secondary. On the flip side, the Commies are not as bad as some people may think, I had to upgrade them 3 points on their offense after Taylor Heinicke was announced in. The Colts are exactly great against the pass themselves ranking 20th in pass DVOA and I can see Washington have some success throwing to Brown, Samuel and McLaurin. Not enough defense and too much offense on both sides of the ball can spell chaos in this game.
Over 39.5 – 2 stars
San Francisco vs LA Rams +1 O/U 42.5
This game isn’t hard for me to handicap. Is the Rams coming off of a bye? Yes they are, but they are also coming off of a win before that bye against Carolina. San Francisco has been banged up this year, especially in their secondary. It showed badly for them last week vs a dominant Chiefs team but the good news is that the 49ers should be getting Jason Verrett back. Both of these coaches know each other quite well, but let’s face it, Kyle Shanahan owns this matchup winning 7 of their last 8 games, and covering 7 out of the last 8. I have the 49ers as a better team than the Rams, and I think that they pull it together for a big division game still in revenge mode from last year in the playoffs. Metrically, the 9ers have a big advantage offensively and defensively ranking 15th to 31st in offensive EPA and 8th to the Rams 9th in defense. The Rams have a terrible offensive line and that is where the 49ers should feast and get to Matt Stafford. Now I know that Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszcyzuk is out, but that just gives the 49ers more opportunity to get their new weapon in CMC going. The Rams should not have a big home field advantage here due to the shear number of 49er fans that live in the LA area. Take the fighting Shanahan’s to win and cover the small number.
49ers -1 – 2 stars
Teaser: Broncos to +8 with the Jets to +8.5 – 2 stars
Saturday Full Card (UFC, CFB, NBA), 10.29
NBA Premiums, 10.29 (22-10, +12.45 units)
Warriors/Hornets over 233 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a game the Warriors should win and they need to start stacking up Ws in spots where it’s feasible, especially since they’re deciding to play a lot of their young bucks. The Hornets won’t want to play defense tonight after a tough loss last night and the Warriors haven’t played much consistent defense yet this season. Both teams run at a top 10 pace– love the over.
Nets 1H -6 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The Pacers are a second half team and the clumsy Nets NEED a big win here. Their offense should go HAM in the first 24 minutes; I could see them, in all their flaws, allowing the Pacers back in this late. Taking the first half only.
Bucks -5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hawks have looked very inconsistent and I think they’ll be fake news early, especially against great teams. They’re also not built for back-to-backs on the road; this is no big deal for an elite Milwaukee squad who’s been through far worse together.
CFB Week 7 Picks ( 32-37-7, -10.21 units):
UCF +1 (-105), to win 1 unit
I trust Gus Malzahn to make things right at home in what should be a raucous environment. Cincy is significantly less talented and has looked really poor in spots. The same could be said for UCF but they tripped last weekend in anticipation of this contest and I think they take care of business this go-round. UCF’s offense, which is 7th in the nation in yards per game, will be the difference.
Penn State +15.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
CJ Stroud has made some egregious mistakes lately and I don’t love that heading into Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions always play Ohio State hard and that’s especially true at home. I think it’s possible this line may fall before kickoff so let’s take it over 2 TDs now. Personally, I think the Buckeyes’ offense is overrated. Of course they’re really good; but they’re not historic.
Auburn +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is falling and falling so let’s take advantage of it while we can. Auburn is an explosive offense, top 5 in CFB in big plays, and all Arkansas does is ALLOW big plays to opposing offenses. At home and with historic ATS trends on their side, this feels like a FG game.
UFC Fight Night, (13-14, +11.38 units in 2022):
Arnold Allen (-110), to win 2 units
Much like Island last week, Allen just seems to be built differently. Normally, against an elite opponent like Kattar, I’d be looking the other direction. But this dude has made a statement in the featherweight division and the power behind his punches should be the difference.
College Football Free Plays
Ohio State vs Penn State +14.5 O/U 61
This will be the biggest game of the weekend and this line is in Limbo between the 14 and the 17. Since the Notre Dame game, Ohio State hasn’t scored less than 45 points. They are number 1 on offensive EPA and number 12th in defense. Penn State on the other hand has had just one difficult game vs Michigan and lost pretty badly, but they at least redeemed themselves last week after the bye smoking the Wolverines thus affecting this spread some. Penn State is only 67th in offensive EPA and 23rd on defense. Both schedules are pretty equal up to this point. If the Nittney Lions have any shot of covering this spread, it lies with their secondary who is pretty loaded with Talent. The problem is that Ohio State can also attack them with Miyan Willams and TreVeyon Henderson. Penn State got gashed against the run vs Michigan and they rank 50th in opponent rush EPA. My power number on this game is Ohio State -14 here but I do not want to go against them here. Instead, I might take the Buckeyes team total over 37.5 under the key number of 38.
Ohio State TT over 37.5 -120 – 1.5 stars
Florida vs Georgia -22.5 O/U 56
The World’s largest cocktail party continues in Jacksonville Florida, but this spread certainly doesn’t warrant a close game. The day is supposed to be rainy with a little wind, but I don’t know how that stops Georgia from scoring 1000 points here. The Dawgs rank 1st in offensive rushing play success rate while Florida ranks 107th on defense. The big question is if Florida can put up 17 points to hit this over. I think that they can just due to Richardson’s mobility. Florida has one of the best rushing games in football themselves, and Richardson has shown that he can rise up in big games vs Utah and Tennessee. I also like that both teams are coming off the bye and should look sharp on offense. The Bulldogs average 42 points per game and Florida has a below average defense.
Over 56 for 2 stars and Georgia TT over 39 – 1 star
USC vs Arizona -15 O/U 75
Big Pac 12 matchup here and I have to imagine that the Trojans are salivating to get back on the field after that Utah loss. Both teams are coming off of the bye here but let’s face it, USC has a lot more to play for coming into this game. Remember when I talked about turnover margin and that USC has only lost 1 this year? Well sometimes it’s something that you can use for regression, but USC is number 1 in turnover margin, and I think that they are just being very smart with the ball. Arizona ranks 99th in turnover margin and could cough it up at any point this game. The condoms have a 1.25 positive net yards per play while Arizona is -.46. I just do not see how the Wildcats stop USC from scoring here. When I looked at this stat, I was shocked to see the Wildcat’s rank 131st in opponent rushing success rate and 130th in opponent passing success rate. I think USC names their final score here.
USC -15 – 2.5 stars
