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NFL DFS Week 7 – Walkering All The Way To The Bank

By
Shawn Knoche
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Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.

Our record this season is now 5-2 in the high participant Double-Ups. Had a nice no doubter entry last week led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. That won’t be happening this week. This lineup is a little more unconventional. Little different atmosphere for me this week doing research for Sunday’s action out by the pool in sunny Arizona with beers in hand.

I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 11-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.

P.J. Walker, QB: $5,200. Wait what? Is that correct? It sure is. Value QB time. Steve Wilks gave him the green light for this week and he gets the worst passing defense in the league in the Falcons. They can’t get to the quarterback and they can’t defend in the back end. The Dirty birds secondary is also getting worse not better allowing 368+ passing yards per game in their last three matchups against Burrow, Brady and Garoppolo. Walker isn’t on the same level as any of those QBs, but he has shown enough in limited action the last 2 weeks where I think he is a solid option against this secondary. Also the Panthers ran the ball well with Foreman and Hubbard against the Bucs who got gashed again on the ground last night. They won’t find the same success against this Falcons squad rushing. They only allow 101 yards per game on the ground and that’s with them trailing a bunch in garbage time.

Derrick Henry, RB: $8,400. The Titans rushing offense started slowly this season, but Henry has been ramping it up the last month. He missed week 6 with the Bye, but his last 4 starts have yielded an average of 25 carries for 108 YPG and 4 rushing TDs. His last two starts vs the Texans he has 56 carries for 462 yards and 4 TDs. And would you look, the Texans are dead last in the NFL in rushing defense allowing 164.7 YPG. Henry should feast on this Texans team again Sunday.

Kenneth Walker III, RB: $6,500. The Giants are winning football games. 6 out of 7 so far to be exact. Is it smoke and mirrors? Maybe. I think Daboll is the real deal as a football coach. I also think they’ve gotten some breaks because of the reason I am putting Walker in here. The rushing defense has struggled. They’ve allowed a 100 yard rusher in 4 of 7 games. They are 28th in total rushing defense allowing over 144 YPG. I think Jacksonville made a big mistake last week getting away from the ground game. How do you only hand it off 17 times in a game when you are averaging 8.2 yards per carry? Anyhoo….in the two and a half games since Walker has become the main back he has 52 carries for 352 yards and 4 touchdowns. That doesn’t suck. Geno Smith has proved he is enough of a threat to throw downfield that this rushing attack will continue to flourish.

DJ Moore, WR: $5,300. Here’s the guy P.J. Walker wants to go to. He had 10 targets with 7 catches for 69 yards and a score against the Bucs last week. With McCaffrey gone from this team and a solid rush defense opposing the Panthers this week I see a lot of targets coming his way again. I can’t believe I am saying this, but I like some Panthers stacks this week.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR: $7,400. Do you think Hopkins is a difference maker in the AZ offensive plan? In a game where the defense put them in a position to run the ball more Hopkins still had 14 targets. He reeled in 10 for 103 yards in his first game back from suspension. Guess which team is the worst in passing yards allowed per attempt in 2022? It’s the Vikings.

Adam Thielen, WR: $6,200. Thielen hasn’t had any huge yardage games up to this point and has only found the end zone twice this season. He is however averaging just under 8 targets a game since week 2. The Cardinals defense hasn’t been awful against secondary receivers thus far, but are 25th in total passing defense. I think coming off a Bye the Vikings will look to get Cousins going this week. Look for a big week for Jefferson also. He’s just too pricey for me.

Mike Gesicki, TE: $3,800. Gesicki has been feast or famine so far this season, but he does have 7 targets in each of his last two games. One with Tua and one without. The Lions are 29th in the league in defending the tight end allowing 5.5 catches and just over 62 yards per game to opposing TE1s.

Paris Campbell, FLEX: $4,600. Well this one will be a mystery with Matt Ryan being seemingly done with the Colts. Sam Ehlinger takes the reins, and from all reports has put in the time working with strength and throwing coaches to be able to make the throws all over the field needed to run this offense. Campbell had seemingly started too become a favorite intermediate target for Ryan when he actually had time to throw the ball. I am concerned that Ehlinger will be very heavy in slot targets to Pittman and then running backs in his first start this year, but I think at this price as a FLEX it’s worth a shot to play Paris as he will have to push the ball down field at some point and Campbell should get some looks. This was a coin flip for me between Campbell and Alec Pierce, but Campbell’s snap count has been much higher so far this year.

Commanders, DST: $2,600. Well the Commanders have been solid on Defense the last two weeks. The played the Packers and the Bears though so that’s not saying much. The do have the 7th most sacks in the NFL this season so they are getting some pressure on the opposing QB. They have only forced 4 total turnovers on the year so far though. Hoping against Ehlinger making his first start they can force some mistakes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Week 8 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of Wednesday October 26th

Sharp Money On:

  • Texans +4 to +2 – 33% tickets and 51% of the money.
  • Seahawks -2 to -3 hosting the Giants – 56% tickets and 71% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Broncos vs Jaguars under 46 to 39.5 – 78% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Titans vs Texans under 41 to 40.5 – 60% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Cardinals vs Vikings over 47.5 to 49 – 85% tickets and 91% of the money.

World Series Game 1 Play

By
Michael Fordham
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*MLB(0.74u): Astros -1.5(+135) vs Phillies–7:03 PM CT

Astros SP Justin Verlander has been phenomenal at Minute Maid Park this season, bringing a 1.64 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in this role into tonight’s start. I’m most impressed about Verlander’s ability to limit HR’s this year(0.4 HR/9 at home) after struggling in that facet the past few seasons. He was effective against an overvalued Yankees lineup the last time we saw him, and quite frankly, this might be a more favorable matchup. The Phillies do not handle righties well away from their home ballpark; they held a poor 79 wRC+ in this role over the final 2 months of the regular season, and it has carried over into the postseason. Braves SP Kyle Wright pitched a shutout against this lineup in the NLDS, and Yu Darvish allowed just 4 baserunners in 7 innings at Petco Park. The Phils are a whole different lineup on the road vs lefties, but this is a role they have proven to falter in.

There is a reason Phillies SP Aaron Nola held an ERA north of 3.00 this season despite carrying a sub-1.00 WHIP: He consistently has blowup innings. True to form, Nola allowed a 5 spot in the 5th inning in his last start at San Diego. Now, he’ll face an Astros lineup that mashed right-handed pitching at home down the stretch of the season and is filled with guys used to playing in the postseason. On a night where I don’t expect him to get much run support, I can’t trust Nola in this spot.

A HUGE part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. The Phillies ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in bullpen WHIP this season, while the Astros unequivocally had a Top 5 bullpen in the game. The Phillies ‘pen has improved over the postseason(1.11 WHIP), but they still lag far behind this Astros ‘pen(0.78 WHIP in postseason).

College Football Week 9 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of Wednesday October 26th

Sharp Money On:

  • Southern Miss +2.5 to -1.5 hosting Louisiana – 56% tickets and 91% of the money.
  • Florida State -20 to -24.5 hosting Georgia Tech – 56% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • Eastern Michigan hosting Toledo +9 to +6.5 – 77% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • USC -14.5 to -16 at Arizona – 78% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Tulsa +3 to +2.5 hosting SMU – 59% tickets and 86% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Utah vs Washington State under 56.5 to 54.5 – 38% tickets and 74% of the money.
  • Notre Dame vs Syracuse under 54.5 to 48 – 40% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Oregon vs California over 56.5 to 59 – 62% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • Kentucky vs Tennessee over 56 to 62.5 – 41% tickets and 57% of the money.
  • Ole Miss vs Texas A&M under 62.5 to 55.5 – 80% tickets and 97% of the money..

Week 9 CFB Plays(Part 2)

By
Michael Fordham
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I’ve released 6 CFB plays already and am back today with 4 more. Coming off a 5-3 Week 8, let’s break out this weekend!

To receive a text if I make any more additions, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Notre Dame 1H +1 @ Syracuse–Saturday 11 AM CT

This is a bad spot for Syracuse coming off of last week’s heartbreaking loss at Clemson. Getting yourself up off the mat after a game like that is tough, and that’s especially true when you’re facing off with a physical team that is strong in the trenches.

Has Notre Dame been far too inconsistent this year? Yes. With that said, there is a lot to like about this football team. Defensively, they are quite good at all 3 levels. Getting pressure on the QB is a strength of this Notre Dame defense, and I expect that to be a big part of why they’re able to get stops in this matchup. Syracuse allowed 5 sacks against Clemson and 6 sacks vs Virginia earlier this season. I also think the Irish are quite solid within their back 7, specifically at that second level going up against the run. We know both QB Garrett Schrader and RB Sean Tucker are big factors in the run game, but I think Syracuse will have a tough time breaking much off with my expectation that they get beat up front. Perhaps Schrader can move the chains with his legs, but we’ve started to see him regress as a passer. He threw for just 6.4 Y/A against Clemson last week, and I have a tough time seeing him create explosive plays on this Irish defense.

The one thing I like about Syracuse’s defense is their ability to limit explosive plays over the top. However, do they really have a guy on that defense to account for Michael Mayer, the best TE in the nation? I expect that matchup to get exploited early and often. Additionally, I think Syracuse’s front 7 is overmatched going up against a physical Notre Dame OL. Notre Dame’s RB’s aren’t great, but I think they’re plenty solid enough to establish a run game in this matchup.

I want NO PART of this 2nd Half. Closing out games on the road is tough, and that’s especially true facing a team in Syracuse who has a comeback win over Purdue under their belt. With that said, early on, this road environment doesn’t scare me. Notre Dame has fared well on the road this year, and with their ability in the trenches, I expect them to come out fast and take a lead into the half.

*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Iowa State OVER 56.5–Saturday 11 AM CT

Throwing out a standard total in an Oklahoma game is a bold move by the oddsmakers. Oklahoma Overs have been money for us this year(Both TCU and Kansas games cashed early in the 3Q), and I’m going right back to the well with it for many of the same reasons.

I believe this Oklahoma defense has flaws that are going to take a lot more than a BYE Week to fix. Their pass rush has vanished in Big12 play, and blown assignments in the Back 7 have led to teams moving the ball at will against this defense. Even in their bounce back win against Kansas, they still allowed 42 points and over 9 Y/A to backup QB Jason Bean. This Iowa State offense has left a lot to be desired this year(mostly in the run game), but we saw them take a step forward in their last game. QB Hunter Dekkers threw for over 9 Y/A against Texas, a defense that hasn’t been beaten over the top in any other game; if not for 2 red zone turnovers, Iowa State very well may have gotten into the 30’s in that game. Why would I not expect that to carry over against an Oklahoma defense that has allowed over 9 Y/A each of the past 3 weeks?

For as poor as the Sooners defense is, they have a Top 5-10 offense in the country when Dillon Gabriel is healthy. Gabriel has thrown for over 9 Y/A this year, and RB Eric Gray is over 7 YPC running behind an offensive line that has been quite impressive. Iowa State is a team led by their defense, but I still think their vulnerable in this type of matchup. Both Baylor and Kansas State had no problem beating this secondary over the top, and their pass rush has been underwhelming this year. I think, however, my trust in Oklahoma’s offense has much more to do with their acumen. Consider this: In a similar type of matchup against Kansas State’s defense, they put up 550 yards of total offense and probably left over 100 yards on the field with missed open receivers. When they’re at full strength, it’s hard to see this offense not getting into the 30’s.

A major consideration in this play is pace. Oklahoma runs at a maniacally fast tempo under Jeff Lebby, and we’ve seen Iowa State increase their tempo considerably this year. I think this game gets played in the 60’s.

*CFB(1u): Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 46–Saturday 3 PM CT

This play really checks all the boxes I look for when betting Unders. First off, both teams run at a considerably slow tempo, and each coach has shown he’s willing to run a lot of clock down the stretch of tight games. Perhaps more importantly, these are two pretty stagnant offenses, and it just so happens that each team’s strength defensively is limiting explosiveness through the air. Both of these QB’s have had a tough time finishing drives, and that shows when you consider each has thrown more INT’s than TD’s. 

Missouri is averaging just 17.5 PPG in SEC play this year, and I have zero worries about going up against QB Brady Cook. The Tigers’ run game has been solid, however, and this is a South Carolina defense you can establish the run on. Expect long drives from Mizzou with a heavy ground attack.

QB Spencer Rattler is a solid player, but he lacks much difference-making talent around him. South Carolina may have put up 30 last week against Texas A&M, but 14 of those points can be attributed to defense/special teams; the Cocks put up just 286 yards of total offense. MarShawn Lloyd has emerged as a solid RB option for South Carolina, but I don’t view him as a threat to break off a ton of chunk plays.

The theme of this game will be long drives, poor red zone execution, and ultimately, a low-scoring game.

*CFB(1u): Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 61–Saturday 6 PM CT

I don’t particularly understand why this total has dropped throughout the week. Tennessee is an incredibly fast-paced team that plays a ton of high-possession games, and their bigger games against Florida and Alabama both went sailing over the total.

The matchup people are talking about is Kentucky’s OL going up against Tennessee’s pass rush. While Kentucky’s OL has been poor this year, it’s not unfathomable to think they have improved coming off the BYE Week. Hell, just look at how far LSU’s OL has come this year. Additionally, I would say it’s quite impressive that Will Levis has thrown for 10 Y/A this year despite being under immense pressure. I’ve had my doubts about Levis, but 10 Y/A is 10 Y/A. This Tennessee back 7 is notorious for allowing explosive plays, and I expect Levis to thrive in that department in this matchup. People also assume that Tennessee’s run defense is going to dominate this game. I’m not saying Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr will run wild, but this is a guy who was over 1200 yards and 6 YPC in the SEC last year, making him perhaps the most underrated back in the country.

Tennessee’s offense is an absolute juggernaut. QB Hendon Hooker is hovering around the 11 Y/A attempt mark, the ground attack has proven to be complementary to what they do through the air, and they’ve had a ton of WR’s start to step up as game-changing pieces. Kentucky is a defensive-minded and defensive-coached team, but how much did that matter last year when the Vols hung up 45 in Lexington? I don’t like how many explosive runs this ‘Cats defense has yielded, and while the secondary is solid, it’s going to take a lot more than “solid” or even “good” to get stops against Tennessee’s balanced attack. Tennessee hung up 52 on ALABAMA; expecting them to score in the upper-30’s is very reasonable.

I would lean towards Kentucky over the full game because I think their offense is plenty capable of answering back with explosive games of their own. However, Tennessee is a high-variance team, and playing sides in their games is a risky proposition. This is an Over team through and through, and I think that’s once again the correct way to approach this.

NBA Premiums, 10.28

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Quick email, on the run this morning:

Celtics -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Tough road spot for the Cavs and they’re without Garland today. Great response spot for an elite Celtics team after a loss.
 
Knicks +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I love the way the Knicks are playing and they’re built to play competitively against a slower paced Bucks’ team. Bucks are due for a stumble, too.
Lakers/T-Wolves under 227.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Despite LAL’s woes they’re still playing pretty good defense and their twin towers should be somewhat limited with Lebron and AD on the court.
Blazers -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
A resurgent Anfernee Simons and a feisty Blazers’ team will be just fine without Lillard today, in my opinion. Portland’s schedule is also really kushy, someone wanted them to win early, while the Rockets are on a horrific road trip.

Week 9 CFB Plays(Part 1)

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 5-3 week, all eyes are ahead on this Week 9 slate. I’ve already released 2 weeknight plays(one for tonight) and am back with 4 plays for this Saturday slate. I expect to have more for you this evening/tomorrow morning as this very well could be my highest volume card of the season.

To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Minnesota -14 vs Rutgers–Saturday 1:30 PM CT

Minnesota has lost its last 3 games, but I do think some context is needed. The Purdue loss at home was a poor performance without a doubt, but the Gophers were going toe-to-toe with Illinois(arguably the best defense in CFB) until QB Tanner Morgan suffered a head injury and had to leave the game. Backup Athan Kaliakmanis is clearly not ready to run this offense, as demonstrated in last week’s loss at Penn State. With Morgan expected back this week, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Gophers.

Morgan and OC Kirk Ciarrocca simply work well together. Morgan threw for over 10 Y/A in 2019 under Ciarrocca, leading the Gophers to a historic 11-win season. We saw Morgan regress these past 2 years under Mike Sanford, but with the old system back in place, Morgan has looked much like his 2019 self this season(9.4 Y/A). When you pair Morgan’s threat as a passer with a borderline elite RB room led by Mo Ibrahim(5.9 YPC), I think Minnesota’s best football lays ahead. Rutgers is clearly a team led by their defense, but at this point in the Greg Schiano rebuild, I don’t see them as physical enough up front to go toe-to-toe with a Minnesota OL that has exceeded my expectations. Rutgers has a pretty good secondary, but when the threat of the vertical pass is there(think Ohio State), their run defense has slipped up.

Rutgers’ offense is absolutely putrid. The Scarlet Knights rank in the bottom 10 in the country in yards/play, and quite frankly, I don’t like any aspect of this matchup going up against Minnesota’s defense. Much like the DL, I don’t think Rutgers’ OL is to a point where they can be trusted against this Minnesota front 7. Rutgers’ run game has proven to be extremely mediocre, and Greg Schiano has played a version of “QB Roulette” this season. We saw Noah Vedral deliver a win for Rutgers last week, so we can expect to see Schiano run it back with the senior this week. That would be best case scenario given Vedral clearly has the lowest ceiling in the Rutgers QB room and has thrown for just 6.2 Y/A throughout his career. Minnesota’s secondary has done a good job of limiting explosive plays through the air, so I won’t expect that to change in what’s a very favorable matchup.

Minnesota has had a rough October, but if you would’ve told me a few weeks ago I could get the Gophers at this number against a “low ceiling” team with issues in the trenches, I would’ve raced to the window. Getting Morgan back completely changes the dynamics of this matchup; I see something along the lines of a 35-13 Minnesota win, making this number far too short.

*CFB(1u): Cal +17 vs Oregon–Saturday 2:30 PM CT

As you might expect with a 17-point spread, the favorite is going to have clear matchups advantages. If you want to have success betting underdogs, get used to that. For a multitude of reasons, I view this as a “sell high” spot on Oregon.

Before we get into the matchups, I want to dig into some of the intangibles of this game. First, are we sure Oregon HC Dan Lanning deserves this much benefit of the doubt as a first-year HC? Coming off of last week’s win vs UCLA, this is a total “flat spot” for the Ducks; has Lanning proven he’ll have his team ready in these sorts of spots? Secondly, public sentiment is incredibly high on Oregon at the moment, which has pushed this line up from the 14.5 point open. You can never assume that any team can roll the ball out and win by 3 TD’s every week, especially when that team still has quite a few question marks defensively. Let’s not forget, they allowed 41 points to a mediocre Washington State offense on the road earlier in the year. The Ducks are struggling to get pressure on the QB and are allowing far too many explosive plays on the ground. While the consistency is not where you’d like it, Cal RB Jaydn Ott clearly has the explosiveness to take advantage of this Oregon run defense; he ran for 274 yards and 3 TD’s against Arizona earlier in the year.

Cal is a pretty mediocre team across the board, but there is reason to believe they will step up well in this spot. In the Golden Bears’ two toughest games this year(@ Notre Dame, vs Washington), they played each to a 7-point loss. For as untrustworthy as Justin Wilcox is as a favorite, Justin Wilcox as an underdog is a totally different animal. I like that this is Cal’s 2nd straight home game, and I like the identity of their team is stopping the run, something that is clearly a must facing off against Oregon. If Cal can put this game on the arm of Oregon QB Bo Nix… I like our chances.

Again, with a spread this big, there are going to be clear matchup advantages for the favorite. With that said, I HATE the spot for Oregon and am not as sold that they are a dominant force and/or a complete football team. I like Cal to keep this game close.

*CFB(1u): Kansas State ML(-120) vs Oklahoma State–Saturday 2:30 PM CT

Both teams come limping into this matchup at less than 100%, but clearly Oklahoma State is the more injured team. The Cowboys were without 5 key contributors against Texas last week, had a few more guys go down in that game, and are playing with a hurt QB in Spencer Sanders. K-State QB Adrian Martinez left last week’s game for the Wildcats, and I am making this play with the expectation that Martinez won’t play. With that said, K-State has clear matchup advantages across the board that make them a “play on” in a pick-em type of game.

Kansas State’s run game is light years ahead of Oklahoma State’s. K-State RB Deuce Vaughn(5.6 YPC) is one of the most slippery backs in the country, while Oklahoma State’s main RB has run for just 3.7 YPC this year. Mike Gundy has some younger guys with more explosiveness that he refuses to play more, and I think those moves will only be made after a loss. I would also give Kansas State the slight edge in the trenches given we’ve seen their pass rush improve in recent weeks while Oklahoma State’s OL has started to show cracks in protecting Sanders(7 sacks last 3 weeks). Sanders is an experienced player that is tough as nails, but he has also yet to throw for more than 7 Y/A on a Big12 opponent this season. When you combine the lack of explosiveness the Cowboys are getting out of their run game, I really don’t think as highly of their offense as many.

Oklahoma State is EXTREMELY fortunate to be 6-1 at this point. They have been out gained in 3 of their 4 Big12 games, and on average, they are getting out gained by over 70 yards in conference play. In addition to their offensive limitations, I am still not sold on their secondary. K-State QB Will Howard proved plenty capable of running this offense last week(11.3 Y/A), and with a full week to prepare and a slew of experienced WR’s to work with, I think this is a weakness that the Wildcats can exploit.

Oklahoma State is experiencing the gauntlet that is the Big12 schedule. With their (lack of) health, with this being their 2nd road game in 3 weeks, and with K-State’s matchup advantages across the board, I expect the Wildcats to get the job done regardless of who plays QB.

*CFB(1u): Baylor +2.5 @ Texas Tech–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

This is a true “contrast in styles” type of game. Some might call it “aggressive(Texas Tech) vs conservative(Baylor)”… I would call it “Reckless vs Smart”. Give Texas Tech credit for bringing a winning record into the latter portion of the season, but it’s clear to me that the formula first year HC Joey Maguire has chosen to deploy is not sustainable over time.

In their 4 Big12 games, Texas Tech has gone for it 25(!) times on 4th down. When it worked against Texas and West Virginia, it worked in a big way. When it didn’t work at Oklahoma State, it allowed the Cowboys to win by double digits despite TTU out gaining OSU by nearly 100 yards. Part of the reason Joey Maguire feels the need to go for it is because his offense lacks the ability to create explosive plays(bottom 30 in yards/play this season). We aren’t exactly sure who will play QB for the Red Raiders this week now that Tyler Shough is back healthy, but in this Air Raid system, don’t expect either QB to throw for over 7 Y/A. Baylor has limited explosive plays through the air well this year and have good players at the second-level, meaning Texas Tech is playing right into Baylor’s hand with their Air Raid style.

On the other hand, Baylor QB Blake Shapen does have the ability to create explosive plays(9.4 Y/A in Big12 play this season). Shapen didn’t look great in his first game back from injury last week, but he’s proven enough to me where I feel comfortable saying Baylor has the QB advantage here. Baylor’s run game is not as explosive as it was a year ago, but they have a slew of high-floor RB’s that should be able to establish the run in this matchup. I’ll give Tech’s defense credit; they have been pretty solid across the board this year. However, I think they are still vulnerable against a true vertical passer, and their offensive philosophy(which leaves the opponent short fields) is sometimes their own worst enemy.

This a total coaching mismatch in my opinion, and I think it proves to be the difference in the game. Baylor wins a close win in Lubbock.

Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Thursday, October 27th

By
Nick Hub
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We took a small step back last week going 4-5 but have been solid this season going 39-27 in College Football this season! We look to bounce back and have another big weekend starting tonight!  See below for tonight’s free play! Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The Hokies of VA Tech travel south to take on the NC State Wolfpack tonight at Carter-Finley Stadium. Virginia Tech is 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS and 1-6 O/U while the Wolfpack come in 5-2 U, 2-5 ATS and 3-4 O/U. This game sets up to be a slower paced game with VA Tech ranking 6th in the ACC in tempo and NC St ranking 12th in the ACC. Both teams have also struggled on offense in conference play ranking 12th and 14th in YPP with just over 4 yards per play and they will be going up against the 12th and 19th ranked defenses in the nation in success rate. The Hokies have been playing defenses that average giving up 28.6 PPG and are only scoring 19.1 PPG against them. Enter the NC St defense who has only been giving up 16.9 PPG this season and that has been against teams averaging 27.5 points per game. We may not see many, if any, big plays tonight as these teams rank 123rd and 130th in the nation with plays of 30 yards or more and both offenses struggle to score in the red zone, scoring TDs in just 61% and 50% of their RZ possessions this season (75th and 110th). We have a low total for this one but she’s low for a reason. I have a final score of 24-10 in favor of the Wolfpack. Take Under 39.5

WHITE HOT in the NBA- Premiums, 10.27

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Starting off hot in any given sport is tough to do with early-season variance but you won’t see any complaints from this guy. A 19-7 and nearly +14 unit start is what dreams are made of. We’ll only settle in and get better as the season progresses so this is a great sign.

Some obvious plays today but not a ton of value overall. Proceeding with caution but pulling the trigger on two wagers:
Grizzlies/Kings over 236 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only thing that makes this result in an under is pure human variance, and that’s why data-dorks won’t ever win consistently long term in NBA betting. Predicting the human element is what we do best and it’s what models and other data points can’t account for. Rant over. Anyway, neither of these teams are playing any defense thus far, Memphis is actually last place in DEF EFF, and a lot of that is because Jaren Jackson Jr. will be OUT until Nov/Dec. He was a force in the paint and Memphis will miss him, but that only opens things for a Kings’ squad that’s already running at the 4th fastest pace in the association. Oh yea, and they’re also bottom third in DEF EFF. This sets up as another game where neither team will care to play defense– Memphis is too physical for the Kings and this isn’t an important spot for the Grizz. We’ll take the over for a light 1 unit.
Warriors 1H TT over 59.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
All the Warriors do is boat-race teams in the first two quarters and I think they’ll come out on fire against Miami at home. The Heat just played in a tough, physical game last night against Portland and this is another rough road spot. The Warriors are coming off a fiery loss against the Suns and they’ll look to reorient tonight in a comfortable spot. The Heat’s defense may step up eventually but I love the Warriors to come out on fire and to score over 60 points in the first half. They’re averaging 67 ppg thru the first 24 minutes.

Podcast 72 – 22 – Happy Halloween with Brad Powers – Bad Beats & Good Treats – NFL Week 8 Plays – College Football Week 9 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today that should SCARE THE DAYLIGHTS out of the books!  Brad Powers @BradPowers7 comes on to break down College Football Week 9!  First, Kiev talks about some NFL week 8 going over the full slate of games with some leans and some plays!  Then, Brad comes on and the guys talk about the scariest scenario for the college football playoff committee.  Next, Brad and Kiev discuss some of their spookiest bad beats and some of their tastiest good treats!  Then, the guys get into the biggest games in college football with some big leans and Free Plays with some slight disagreement.   Finally, Kiev talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week.  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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