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NHL Preview & Picks – October 13th, 2022

We have 10 games taking place tonight across the NHL. There are a few great matchups that should provide some great hockey. As always, I’m keeping it very light to start the season.

 

Game Previews:

Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs

The Capitals and Maple Leafs are both coming off losses last night. Washington and Toronto were both favored in those matchups. The Bruins defeated the Capitals 5-2 while the Leafs lost 4-3 to the Canadiens. They’ll be changes in net for both teams with Charlie Lindgren and Ilya Samsonov expected to start.

Dallas Stars @ Nashville Predators

The Stars will open up their season tonight while Nashville has already played two games. Nashville defeated the Sharks in back-to-back games as part of the Global Series.

New York Rangers @ Minnesota Wild

The Rangers took down the Tampa Bay Lightning in their first game of the season. Minnesota will have their first game of the season.

New Jersey Devils @ Philadelphia Flyers

The Devils and Flyers will both start their season off tonight. Philadelphia is now under the direction of John Tortorella. Carter Hart and Mackenzie Blackwood are expected to be the starters.

Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames

The Avalanche opened their season up with a win against the Chicago Blackhawks last night. Calgary will play their first game of the season.

 

Pick(s):

  • Calgary Flames (-130) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.32 to win 0.25 Units

While this may be one of the only times all season you’ll see Colorado at plus money, I don’t think they’re the play here. Last night they were able to defeat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2. They now head to Calgary to take on a Flames team that has gotten better in the off-season. Colorado did defeat the Flames in two of their three matchups last season but given the spot, I like the Flames to win their home opener.

  • Buffalo Sabres/ Ottawa Senators over 6.5 (-116) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units

The Sabres didn’t make too many moves this off-season despite having a ton of cap room. Instead, they locked up part of the young core signing Tage Thompson and Mattias Samuelsson to long-term contracts. Ottawa made several moves trading for Alex Debrincat and Cam Talbot. They also acquired veterans, Claude Giroux and Tyler Motte.

Anton Forsberg has been confirmed as the starter while Craig Anderson is expected to get the start for the Sabres. Both the Senators and the Sabres have some offensive firepower that should be on display tonight. When you combine that with their sub-par goaltending, I like this game to go over.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Shea Theodore over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings
    • Last year, Shea Theodore recorded over 2.5 Shots on Goal in all three matchups against the Blackhawks. Chicago also allowed the 17th most shots on goal to defensemen last season.
  • Alex Tuch over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115) – BetMGM
    • Last year, Alex Tuch recorded over 2.5 Shots on Goal in all three matchups against the Senators. Ottawa also allowed the most shots on goal to right-wingers last season. Tuch is on the first Power Play unit for the Sabres which should get several opportunities tonight as the Senators took the 7th most penalties as a team in the 2021-22 season.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Betting Glossary

Sports betting legalization has exploded over the last few years. When I jumped into sports betting in 2015, there was no resources. Fortunately I stubbled into a group of famous handicappers and they gave me guidance. Taking it upon myself, I feel the need to give back to the next generation of handicappers. These are terms you must know to have any level of success in this industry.

Moneyline – taking a team to win the game outright. Very simple team A just needs to beat team B.   Example Line -125 Dodgers

Spread/Runline/Puckline – taking a team to win by or be within a certain amount of points set by Vegas. Runline (baseball and Puckline (hockey) will be set at -1.5 for all matches.
Example Line -4.5 Broncos +4.5 Cardinals

Total – total combined score of both teams.    Example Clemson vs. Oregon 62.5

Hook – the half point at the end of a line. When a line has a hook, bettors can not push.  Example -7.5 Grizzlies

Alternate Lines – odds that are lower or higher than the common line. The price adjusts according to the direction of the line change.

Action – odds that are higher or lower than the posted main lines

Laying the Points – this term is used in conjunction with the spread. This is used when you are taking the favorite to cover the spread.   Example “I’m laying points with the Broncos.”

Taking the Points – this term is used in conjunction with the spread. This is used when you are taking the dog to cover the spread.   Example “I’m taking the points with the Cardinals.”

Chalk – refers to the favorite. This team will be listed with – sign.

Underdog(Dog) – refers to the not favored. This team will be listed with a + sign.

Pick’em – neither side is favored. Odds are identical on either side.

Over – this term is used in conjunction with the total. Referring to the total points in a game above the line given.

Under – this term is used in conjunction with the total. Referring to the total points in a game going below the given line.

Parlay – a single bet that combines multiple bets inside. (All bets must win or push for parlay to cash)

Teaser – taking multiple games in a parlay and moving the line in a more favorable direction. Giving each team or total extra points. This does lower the odds.

ATS – Against the Spread, when a team covers or does not cover a spread.

Three-way Odds – odds that have three wagering options, including ties.

Bankroll –  the amount of funds that a person is willing dedicate to gambling.

VIG – Vigorish/Tax/Juice This is the “fee” you pay to place the wager. -110 the -010 on the end is the fee you are paying the book to place that wager. Vegas isn’t a charity. This is how they hold an edge over the bettor. The bigger the favorite the more VIG.

Unit – percent of your bankroll that a bettor uses to place on a bet. Traditionally a unit is 1% of the bankroll. Some will use between 2-5%

Implied Probability – Converting betting odds to a percentage. To calculate: (1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

Book – place that gives lines and accepts wagers.

Line – the odds given for each game.

Linemaker – Also known as an oddsmaker. These are the people who “set/decide” the line.

Handle – total amount of money accepted on a single game/event.

Push – also a tie. If a wager is on a whole -7 Packers or UGA vs BAMA Total 64, when the final score lands on that number, that wager is returned.

Sharp – A professional bettor who has resources and larger bankrolls than the common bettor.

SOS – Strength of Schedule

EPA – Expected points added is an advanced metric used to determine the true strength of a position group in football.   It values play by play success more than yards or points.

EV – Expected Value, what a bettor can expect to win/lose with the same odds over time per each wager +EV means long term positive value, -EV means long term negative value.   (Amount won per bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet * probability of losing)

Closing Line – final line before the game starts. After the closing line is given, you will only be able to bet live odds.

CLV – Closing Line Value, when a wager moves in the bettors favor.   Example Wager placed -120 Chargers, the line grows and closes at -170. The implied probability for 62.96% – 54.55% = 8.41%

Edge – having an advantage not publicly known, statistical or early news.

HFA – Home Field Advantage handicappers have to decide how much HFA is considered in the spread. NFL traditionally is worth -2 in the toughest stadiums. Not all HFA is equal.

Exotic Bets – any wager that is out of the 3 major lines, money line,spread, total. Parlays, player props or game props are common exotic wagers.

Live Betting – wagers placed once the game/event has started.

Middle – having a bet on both sides of the line that cash.

OFB – Off the Board, when a game is no longer able to take on money because of injuries, weather or other factors.

Rotation Number – number given to each wager on the board. When at a book, bettors need to use the rotation number to rather than the team name/s to place a wager.

Steam – odds that have rapid change based on large money from sharps coming in.

Arbitrage – having odds on two sides of the line to cover the wager or a positive outcome. These often are hard to find because the books typically move together.

YPP – Yards per play

YPPT – Yards per point

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday NHL Early Season Power System Play

Thursday card has a Pair of Powerful Division Series plays in MLB, The NFC Total of the Month and a BIG 12 Top play in CFB and a Perfect system total in the NHL. Comp play below.

The NHL Comp play for Thursday is on Calgary at 9:40 eastern. This game fits a nice opening game system that applies to Calgary as we play on home favorites in their opening game of the season. Home favorites in game 1 are 8-1 since 2013 vs a team that won their opener as a home favorite. Colorado opened up as a heavy favorite and as expected pasted a weak Chicago team. Now they travel into Calgary with a target on their backs against a Calgary team that will be all out to get their home opener. Look for the Flames to melt the Avalanche tonight. Play on Calgary. See the system below. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

SU: 8-1

Oct 04, 2013 Friday 2013 Hurricanes Red Wings home 3-0 1-1 2-3 6-4 103 5.5 2 W O 1
Oct 09, 2014 Thursday 2014 Red Wings Bruins home 0-1 2-0 0-0 2-1 -105 5.5 1 W U 1
Oct 15, 2016 Saturday 2016 Avalanche Stars home 2-2 3-2 1-1 6-5 106 5.5 1 W O 1
Oct 07, 2017 Saturday 2017 Canucks Oilers home 2-1 1-0 0-1 3-2 136 5.5 1 W U 1
Oct 04, 2018 Thursday 2018 Penguins Capitals home 2-3 3-1 1-2 7-6 -165 6.0 1 W O 1
Oct 04, 2019 Friday 2019 Blue Jackets Maple Leafs home 0-1 1-1 0-2 1-4 140 6.5 -3 L U 1
Jan 15, 2021 Friday 2020 Senators Maple Leafs home 1-1 3-1 1-1 5-3 170 6.5 2 W O 1
Oct 14, 2021 Thursday 2021 Senators Maple Leafs home 3-0 0-0 0-2 3-2 155 6.5 1 W U 1
Oct 14, 2021 Thursday 2021 Kings Golden Knights home 2-1 2-0 2-1 6-2 135 5.5 4 W O 1

Oct 13, 2022 Thursday 2022 Flames Avalanche home -125 6.5

Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, October 15th

Last night we started the week by cashing our biggest play of the week (ULL/Marsh U47.5) to add to our 7-2 last week and are now 30-19 60% (+$5,465) in College Football and 5 more plays locked in and 1 more game on the radar for the weekend! I gave out one of them yesterday and have another for you today! Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The best rivalry in sports collide on Saturday night for a basketb….I mean football game. The North Carolina Tar Heels will stay in state to take on familiar foe Duke Blue Devils. Carolina comes in as a touchdown favorite and are 5-1 after beating Miami FL last week while the Blue Devils enter 4-2 after losing to GA Tech in OT last week. The Tar Heels like to play fast, ranking 26th in tempo, and enter this contest with a top 25 passing attack while ranking 36th in the country in offensive success rate. Carolina is a balanced offense but they will look to throw it more in this game to take advantage of Duke’s weakness on defense. A defensive that ranks in the bottom 40 of the nation in coverage, 113th in 3rd down conversion rate (44.05%) and is one of the worst tackling team in the nation (111th). Lets stroll over to the other side of the ball. Duke owns the 35th best offensive success rate in the county and will look to break a couple big runs on this bad Tar Heels defense to add to their 15 plays of 30 yards or more (28th most). UNC defense ranks 107th in yards per play (6.08 YPP), 107th in PPG (32), 122nd in total plays against (459) and 125th in defensive success rate (48.83%). This is a high total but it is high for a reason. As mentioned above, both teams will be able to take advantage of their offensive strengths against the other teams defensive weakness. This should be a track meet. Take Over 66 points

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

October 13th MLB Play

A 2-0, +2u Tuesday in MLB has me back into the green for the Postseason! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Yankees F5 -0.5(+110) vs Guardians–6:37 PM CT

There’s a chance this game gets postponed due to weather, but as long as these two SP’s match up in Yankee Stadium during this series, I will like the Yankees early in the game.

Yankees SP Nestor Cortes has been nothing short of phenomenal at Yankee Stadium this season(1.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP). Perhaps most impressive is that he has allowed just 0.5 HR/9 in the Bronx despite the dimensions of that park and his fly-ball nature; he really does produce weak contact at an elite rate. The Guardians hit the 2nd fewest HR’s in baseball this season and have far too many weaklings to be trusted in this spot. More importantly, they have particularly struggled against left-handed pitching; since June 1st, this lineup ranks 27th in baseball with a measly 83 wRC+ vs lefties.

Guardians SP Shane Bieber looked good on Friday against the Rays, but I still feel as if he is getting priced for the pitcher he was a few years ago. Bieber is striking out hitters at a career-low rate in 2022 and has seen his velocity drop considerably. Most alarming, Bieber is allowing nearly 29% of balls to be hit 95+ mph. I don’t like how any of that translates against this dangerous Yankees lineup and in this “little league” ballpark.

The Guardians(on paper at least) have a better bullpen than the Yankees and will absolutely unload their best arms regardless of score in this must-win game. I don’t want to mess with that; I’ll isolate the matchup I feel best about and play the Yankees F5 -0.5 at a plus-price.

NFL Week 7 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Giants in a let down spot hosting the Ravens after beating the Packers outright.
  • Jets are in a let down spot at Green Bay next week after beating Miami outright.

Get Up Spots:

  • Miami in a big get up spot vs the Vikings.  Hope Tua is back.
  • Green Bay vs the Jets after losing in London.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • The 49ers could be looking past the Falcons to the Chiefs.

NBA Opening Week Plays, 10.18 and 10.19

 

Opening Night, October 18
76ers/Celtics over 214 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two top Eastern Conference opponents faceoff in Week 1 and I think Boston is set for some regression after they lost Ime Udoka for the season – Ime brought an intensity and defensive-minded approach to Boston that hardened them and prepared them for more success last year. They’ll miss his gritty style, and the 76ers are still super talented and poised to prove something out the gate. We saw high totals last year in the openers and I expect the same here; defenses need a little time to adjust.
Warriors 1Q -2 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Just a 1 unit play since it’s the first game of the season and that creates more volatility, but Lebron can be predictably overconfident in these spots and I don’t think that’s going to work against the defending champs. Draymond will play for Golden State and the Russ/Beverly combo looks like it’ll be a real show; one that should create some real inefficiencies immediately for the Lakers. If they’re going to be good this year, it won’t be on opening night, and it won’t be in the opening quarter. I like the Warriors to ransack the Lakers early– this probably isn’t out as most books yet but look for it as we get closer to Tuesday.
October 19
Heat 1H -3 or less, to win 1 unit
The Bulls won’t start off as hot this year, in my opinion, while the Heat are already getting discredited and underestimated by NBA “experts.” Miami is at home and we’ve seen Chicago crawl back into these games– I’d rather take a 1st half line on a Heat team that’s just waiting to bounce on a softie like Chicago.
Hawks -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks won’t have to be that impressive to win by double digits here, in my opinion. The Rockets are one of the least talented teams in the NBA since they lost Christian Wood and I see their defense being considerably better this season.
Mavericks +4.5 (110), to win 1.5 units
This line is crazy, if you ask me. Even at home, there are all kinds of sell-signs on the Suns’ right now. The debacle with their owner, they’re trying to trade a key piece in Jae Crowder, Ayton seems like he’s barely interested in playing basketball. No thanks. I love the addition of Christian Wood for Dallas and I think the Mavericks are quietly building one of the most effective lineups in the NBA. They bested Phoenix in the postseason and that wasn’t a fluke.

Podcast 68 – 22 – With Brian Edwards – NFL Week 6 Plays – College Football Week 7 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards is back to break down some serious college football games for week 7!  First, Kiev talks about NFL week 6 by breaking down almost every game on the slate with some leans and FREE PLAYS!  Then, Brian comes on and the guys talk about what to look for when betting college football mid-season.  Next, Brian and Kiev @OBKiev get into six massive games with some leans and more free plays for college football week 7!  After that, Brian and Kiev talk a little more NFL and preview a massive UFC 280 coming next weekend.  Finally, Kiev gets into sharp money movement from the week.  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Alabama vs Tennessee – Penn State vs Michigan – USC vs Utah and more!

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Week 7 CFB Early Best Bets

Coming off a 4-3-1, +1.25u Week 6, all eyes are ahead to Week 7!

I currently have 3 plays locked in for this Week 7 slate but will follow up with more plays in another post tomorrow. I’ll more than likely add more on Friday night/Saturday morning. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Baylor -3.5 @ West Virginia–Thursday 6 PM CT

I released this on Tuesday night and made a complementary video on YouTube for my analysis.

*CFB(1u): Memphis/East Carolina OVER 58–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

With the pace each of these teams run at, the defensive issues on each side, as well as the history of these QB’s, I have a hard time seeing this game stay Under the total.

Memphis had last week’s game against Houston all but wrapped up before yielding a late comeback to the Cougars. Even so, they put up 33 points in that spot and worked around a brutal matchup facing arguably the best pass rushing unit in the American Athletic. QB Sean Henigan is over 8 Y/A throughout his young career; while the consistency hasn’t been where you’d want it to be this year, he is more than capable of taking advantage of this ECU defense. The Pirates might’ve only allowed 24 points last week to Tulane, but Michael Pratt really picked on their secondary to the tune of 9.6 Y/A. Old Dominion QB Hayden Wolff put up a similar figure vs ECU earlier this season, and even Campbell’s QB threw for 7.9 Y/A. Memphis’s OL will have a much easier time protecting Henigan in this matchup which should allow the talented sophomore to shine.

East Carolina’s offense thrives off of balance. QB Holton Ahlers has already thrown for 16 TD’s on the young season, but it really starts with the ECU run game. Keaton Mitchell has had another phenomenal season, running for 7.6 YPC here in ‘22 after running for 6.5 YPC last season. Mitchell faced a tough matchup against Tulane last weekend(look at what the Green Wave did to Kansas State’s rushing attack), but this is the exact type of matchup where Mitchell makes his money. Memphis’s front 4 has been particularly concerning here in 2022; they’ve allowed offenses like Arkansas State and North Texas to have their way and get into the 30’s. Ahlers is a 5th year player that will thrive in this matchup once the run game is established.

*CFB(1u): Utah -3.5 vs USC–Saturday 7 PM CT

USC remains undefeated, but I still have some pretty big concerns about this team, mainly on the defensive side of the ball. Sentiment is low on Utah after they lost in the Rose Bowl last week, but that has not swayed how I view this matchup. Utah QB Cam Rising is a great fit for their system, holding a 4:1 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Ute. Still, Utah’s offense is predicated on establishing the ground game with Tavion Thomas. While the Utah rushing attack has taken a step back this year, I was encouraged to see Thomas stay above 5 YPC against UCLA last week. USC’s clear strength defensively is their pass rush, but I don’t think that will be showcased as well in this matchup as it would be facing an offense that features more slow developing plays. USC has routinely allowed inferior competition to establish the run, and I have little faith their secondary will consistently come out on top against an experienced Utah WR/TE core that has a lot of continuity within this offense.

There aren’t very many players in CFB with more upside than Caleb Williams. With that said, the sophomore is far from consistent. He played losing football in his only other true road test this season(44%, 5 Y/A at Oregon State) and didn’t play particularly well against a good Washington State defense last week(52%, 6.5 Y/A). This is clearly the toughest matchup of the season for him, and I think we see Williams make quite a few mistakes. USC RB Travis Dye is the best player week-in and week-out Lincoln Riley has right now, but ultimately, this game will fall on Williams’ arm. I know how much talent USC has out wide(although Jordan Addison is not 100% entering this matchup), but Utah’s strength of their defense is their secondary. This will also be the biggest test to date for USC’s OL.

Playing on the road in Salt Lake City is a challenge I believe a team of “ringers” like USC is not suited well for. This is truly a clash of styles matchup between a team built through the Transfer Portal and an experienced team that’s been developed in the same program for years. I’m not concerned as to how Utah’s 2 losses figure into this matchup; quite frankly, I think this is a game the Utes pull away in and win by 2 scores.

NFL Week 5 Misleading Final Scores

The Broncos out-gained the Colts 375 to 306 yet lost 12-9.  Equal turnovers and just an ugly game right there.  All field goals.

The Lions were only outgained 364 to 312 yet lost 29-0.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible red zone got them.

The Buccaneers outgained the Falcons 420 to 261 yet only won 21-15.  No turnovers just clunking out and taking big sacks hurt them.

Washington out-gained the Titans 385 to 241 yet lost 21-17.  Horrible red zone and a turnover killed the Commanders.

The Jaguars out-gained the Texans 422 to 248 yet lost 13-6.   A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad 4th down efficiency killed them.

The Rams out-gained the Cowboys 323 to 239 yet lost 22-10.  A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them.