Let Down Spots:
Get Up Spots:
Look Ahead Spots:
Toledo out-gained Bowling Green 482 to 456 yet lost 42-35. A 3-1 turnover Toledo Special difference was the culpret.
SMU’s yards were a lot of garbage.
UCF out-gained Navy 314 to 248 yet lost 17-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio as well as poor 3rd down efficiency killed the Knights.
Florida’s yards were mainly garbage time vs Vandy.
Baylor out-gained TCU 501 to 442 yet lost 29-28. Poor QB play for Baylor at the end of the game.
UCONN out-gained Army 370 to 320 yet lost 34-17. A 2-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone offense and defensive efficiency killed them.
Arizona’s yards vs WASU were garbage time.
Maryland out-gained Ohio State 402 to 401 yet lost 43-30. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone efficiency got them.
Western Kentucky out-gained Auburn 385 to 374 yet lost 41-17. A 2-0 turnover ratio burned them bad. This game was much closer until the end.
Iowa State out-gained Texas tech 422 to 246 yet lost 14-10. They won the turnover battle 1-0 yet horrible red zone efficiency on offense killed them.
Oklahoma State’s yards vs Oklahoma were mainly garbage time.
Ole Miss out-gained Arkansas 702 to 503 yet lost 42-27. A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
UNLV out-gained Hawaii 427 to 369 yet lost 31-25. They won the turnover battle 2-1 yet lost due to bad red zone efficiency.
The final week of the CFB regular season is upon us! I’ve locked in 6 plays for this weekend and will add additional plays to this post as we approach the weekend.
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*CFB(1u): Florida/Florida State OVER 58–Friday 6:30 PM CT
Florida State’s offense is playing at a championship level this year, and I think it’s quite sustainable. The OL has allowed just 1 sack/game this year and paved the way for Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward to run for over 6.5 YPC. QB Jordan Travis has thrown more than 5 times as many TD’s as INT’s, is a factor in the run game, and has more proficiency in the vertical passing game than given credit for(8.9 Y/A). Florida’s defense is incredibly mediocre, particularly within their Front 7. Even in the secondary, we saw the likes of Jayden Daniels and Haynes King(in the 1st Half) move the ball through the air pretty easily against the Gators. Given the multiplicity and effectiveness up front, I see FSU getting into the mid-to-upper-30’s.
Florida State’s defense is going to look much improved on paper, but who have they played in the last month? Good performances vs Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana is not enough to make me forget the cracks they showed against formidable offenses earlier in the season. Clemson RB Will Shipley ran for over 6 YPC on this defense, and Louisville found a way into the 30’s as well. Florida obviously laid a clunker in Nashville last week, but this offense has shown major strides throughout the season. Even in the loss, Anthony Richardson threw for 400 yards against Vanderbilt last week; we already know what he can do in the run game(6.6 YPC). Additionally, the Gators are stout up front and feature a pair of 6 YPC backs.
I see something along the likes of a 38-27 or 38-30 game; there is value on this Over when you contextualize Florida State’s recent defensive success.
*CFB(1u): Clemson 1H -7.5 vs South Carolina–Saturday 11 AM CT
Credit South Carolina for taking advantage of a clear weakness that was Tennessee’s secondary last week. With that said, we have to remember how inept this offense was for most of SEC play. They are still not healthy at RB and have been handled up front for most of the season; even including last week’s monster performance, QB Spencer Rattler is still under 8 Y/A on the season. Ever since the debacle against Wake Forest, Clemson’s secondary has really sharpened up to pair with what we knew was already a very stout Front 7. I expect South Carolina to revert right back to looking like a mediocre-below average offense.
I’m really not impressed with South Carolina’s defense, either. While they are pretty solid in their secondary, they routinely allow teams to establish the run given their relative weakness within their Front 7. Clemson RB Will Shipley has had a good sophomore campaign(5.6 YPC), and Phil Mafah has emerged as a solid complementary option. I’m not a big DJ Uiagaleilei guy, but with the way I think the run gets established in this matchup, I expect their to be opportunities for #5 in the vertical passing game.
I’m isolating this in the 1H because I do worry about a potential backdoor. Clemson has the ACC Championship to worry about next week, and I don’t trust their second-team secondary to hold South Carolina’s offense at bay. With 1’s on 1’s, however, I expect Clemson to take a double-digit lead into the Half.
*CFB(1u): Texas A&M +10 vs LSU–Saturday 6 PM CT
LSU is the most overrated team in College Football; it’s laughable to consider them a legitimate playoff contender(we won’t have to worry about that for much longer). Specifically, this team has looked anything but impressive on the road this season. Against Auburn, they were out-gained by 168 yards but forced 4 turnovers to escape with a win. Against Arkansas, they gained less than 300 yards vs a bottom 2 defense in the SEC; if KJ Jefferson plays that game, LSU loses by double-digits.
In both of those aforementioned road games, LSU QB Jayden Daniels threw for less than 100 yards in each and was sacked a combined 10 times. Say what you want about Texas A&M’s season, but the clear strength of that team is their pass defense, making this another tough matchup for Daniels. While pass rush is not a calling card of this A&M defense, I can’t overlook how bad LSU’s offensive line is; Daniels has been sacked 4+ times in OVER HALF of LSU’s games this season. Does this sound like a team you want to lay double-digits in a tough road environment with?
Texas A&M’s offense is expected to welcome back their leading rusher Devon Achane(5.6 YPC) and leading WR Evan Stewart for the season finale. QB Conner Weigman is still a true freshman that has taken his lumps, but I have been impressed with his ability to take care of the football(6 TD vs 0 INT this season). With 5 star QB’s, there is always the chance that the talent shines when you least expect it. LSU’s front 7 has impressed me this season, and the emergence of LB Harold Perkins adds to that strength. However, I think the Tigers secondary leaves some to be desired and is not unbeatable. Advantage is still towards LSU on this side of the matchup, but they won’t totally overwhelm Texas A&M to the degree many believe they will.
With A&M not going to a bowl, this becomes the Aggies’ pseudo bowl game. At night, at Kyle Field is not a desirable spot for anybody, and as such, I see this as a major step-up spot for the Aggies. Additionally, LSU is clearly looking ahead to their matchup with Georgia next weekend in Atlanta. LSU should win, but as history has shown, it won’t be in convincing fashion.
*CFB(1u): Syracuse/Boston College UNDER 47–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Boston College’s offense has been one of the most disappointing units in all of CFB this season. Right on cue, the Golden Eagles added to that disappointment by getting blanked at Notre Dame last week. With BC, it all starts up front; they’ve allowed 14 sacks over the last 3 games and provided no push in the run game, as leading RB Phil Garwo is averaging just 3 YPC on the season. I wouldn’t call Syracuse’s front 7 great, but the one thing I like about Syracuse’s defense is their ability to limit explosiveness through the air. Even teams like UCONN and Virginia Tech have outclassed this BC offense.
To a lesser degree, Syracuse faces some of these same issues. QB Garrett Schrader has been sacked 3 times/game over his last 4 starts, and he has regressed significantly in the vertical passing game over the course of the season. RB Sean Tucker’s numbers look fine, but when compared to his talent level and upside, it’s clear that Syracuse’s OL issues are holding back what could be a solid offense. I’m of the belief that Boston College’s defense is actually pretty solid; like Syracuse, they do an especially good job of limiting explosiveness through the air. Given the high floor of their pass rush, I think they will give Syracuse many of the same troubles they’ve experienced in recent weeks.
Anything above 45 presents a good opportunity to play on the Under here.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/Texas Tech OVER 63.5–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
I have some PTSD after seeing Oklahoma score 28 points in the 1Q last week only to get blanked the rest of the way, but I’m still of the belief that, when Dillon Dabriel is healthy, this is a trustworthy offense. Gabriel has left a ton of plays on the field this year, yet he still has thrown for over 8 Y/A and holds an 18:5 TD/INT ratio. The Sooners have impressed me along their OL all year, paving the way for RB Eric Gray to have a massive year(1200 yards, 6.5 YPC). Texas Tech is fairly physical up front, but with my expectation the Sooners win up front, the Red Raiders have proven to be leaky in their Back 7 in their tougher matchups.
Like Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby, Texas Tech OC Zach Kittley runs his offense at a maniacally fast pace. While Texas Tech has played QB roulette this year, they have finally settled on Tyler Shough as their full time starter. Shough has never played a full season, but his past success within multiple systems(8.9 career Y/A) clearly elevates the floor of this offense that they didn’t have with Behren Morton or Donovan Smith. I worry about this offense facing good pass rushing teams, but that doesn’t apply in this matchup given Oklahoma’s mediocrity in that department. Give the Sooners credit for improving in their Back 7 over the course of the season, but I think last week’s “success” has a lot more to say about Oklahoma State’s ineptitude offensively. Quite frankly, I’m not sold the Sooners’ defense has put it all together.
With 2 fast-paced teams, you don’t need perfection from either side to cash the Over. I think this is a “first to 35 wins” kind of game with the potential to go much higher.
Added Wednesday Night
*CFB(1u): UCLA -10 @ California–Friday 3:30 PM CT
UCLA suffered a heartbreaking loss to USC last weekend and is now officially out of Pac12 title contention. While some teams could succumb to a “flat spot” in response, I’m betting on Chip Kelly to have his veteran-laden team ready to take the anger out on a clearly inferior opponent. California is out of bowl contention themselves and is probably content after beating rival Stanford last week. Unlike other conferences, I don’t believe the bottom half of the Pac12 is equipped to take advantage of even the best of spots when stepping up against the top half of the conference.
UCLA has one of the most balanced offenses in the country. RB Zach Charbonnet comes into this matchup over 7 YPC, and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a true dual threat, completing 70% of his passes at over 8 Y/A and being a major part of the Bruins run game. While the Cal run defense has stepped up well at times this year, do I really expect them to hold down Charbonnet and DTR for the full 60 minutes? From there, I expect DTR to take advantage of a pretty weak Cal secondary, a unit that is left hanging out to dry by the Golden Bears’ non-existent pass rush.
Cal’s offense is the definition of mediocre. QB Jack Plummer is throwing for under 7 Y/A at just a 62% completion rate, and he is often found under immense pressure in his tougher matchups. RB Jadyn Ott’s numbers don’t look bad on the surface, but if you take away one fluky performance vs Arizona which still accounts for over 30% of his yardage output, he has been mediocre as well. As we saw last week, UCLA’s defense is far from stellar. I was defintley expecting them to step up better than they did against the run, but to a certain degree, they got beat by a superior set of talent. That is something that simply doesn’t apply in this matchup, especially considering I’m expecting them to win up front vs this Golden Bears OL.
Perhaps I’d be more worried about UCLA getting themselves up off the mat if they hadn’t laid an egg vs Arizona the week before they played the Trojans. I’m expecting a good bounce back performance from this group and a 2 TD+ win.
We have a massive slate tonight with fifteen games taking place across the NHL. There will be no games taking place tomorrow with American Thanksgiving taking place. I offer my best bets of the night along with a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
These two teams will square off for the second time this season. In their first matchup, the Flames defeated the Penguins 4-1.
After losing their first six games in November, the Flames have won four of their last five. Their offense has come alive scoring five or more in three of those matchups. The Penguins have also been on a hot streak winning their last three games. During that span, Pittsburgh has outscored their opponents 14-7.
Both of these teams have had an offensive revitalization in the past few games while their defense has been lackluster. Jacob Markstrom and Tristan Jarry have been confirmed as the starters for tonight. On the year Markstrom has a 3.03 GAA and 0.889 SV% while Jarry has a 3.27 GAA and 0.904 SV%. In Markstrom’s last four starts he’s allowed three or more goals against in three of those games. Jarry has also been struggling allowing three or more goals against in four of his last five starts.
The Avalanche have won three straight, all on the road I might add. They’ll travel home to take on the Canucks who are coming off a loss against the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite going .500 through the first few games, Colorado has seemed to right the ship. While Vancouver was horrendous to start the year, they have also been playing some better hockey as of late. Both of these teams can score but the biggest mismatch comes in net. Thatcher Demko is likely to get the start for the Canucks who has the 2nd worst GSAx in the NHL (-9.1) Alexandar Georgiev is expected to get the nod for the Avalanche who ranks 8th with a +8.0 GSAx. To make matters worse for Vancouver, they’ve struggled on the road this year scoring fewer goals and allowing more than at home. Despite Colorado’s injury woes, they still have a superior lineup and should be able to win this game in regulation.
(Only if Jaroslav Halak is confirmed for NYR)
New York’s coming off a game last night where they defeated the Los Angeles Kings on the road 5-3. Igor Shesterkin started for the Rangers against the Kings so it’ll likely be Jaroslav Halak tonight. While Shesterkin hasn’t looked like he did last season, he’s still been much better than his backup. In Halak’s five starts, he has a 3.22 GAA, .883 SV%, and -3.1 GSAx. The Ducks have confirmed John Gibson as their starting goaltender tonight. He also hasn’t had a great start to the year with a 4.15 GAA, .891 SV%, and -5.8 GSAx.
While the Rangers rank 20th in GF/G, their offense has recently shown some signs of life. Oddly enough, they’ve been better on the road averaging 3.50 GF/G compared to 2.60 GF/G at MSG. Anaheim’s offense on the other hand has remained stagnant. However, given the goaltender situation for the Rangers, they should be able to get a few by Halak. The Ducks also average half a goal more at home. With this total only sitting at 6.0 and the expected goaltender matchup, these teams should be able to reach this number.
Player Props to Target:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Annoying, anticlimactic 2-2 Tuesday. Adding one play in red, below:
Hornets -3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Really tough spot for the 76ers. Coming off a nice win where they expended almost all of their bench’s energy, they’ll have to turn around and head to Charlotte a day before Thanksgiving to take on a Hornets team just waiting to pound. They’re still without LaMelo Ball but they’re healthy otherwise off 3 days of rest. Not a great team yet but this is a nice situation for them to take advantage and feel good about themselves. Hornets roll.
We have a great show for you today! Bryan Leonard @BLeonardSports from WagerTalk.com @WagerTalk comes on to discuss a wonderful holiday full of HUGE games! First, Kiev talks about the College Football week 13 rivalry week slate of games with some FREE PLAYS and leans! Next, Bryan comes on and the guys talk about the 5 most overrated and underrated things about Thanksgiving. After that, the guys get into the full slate of NFL week 12 games including the three for Thursday! Finally, Kiev gives out a teaser that is now 6-4-1 and talks about the sharp line movements in NFL and College football throughout the week. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Hornets -3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Really tough spot for the 76ers. Coming off a nice win where they expended almost all of their bench’s energy, they’ll have to turn around and head to Charlotte a day before Thanksgiving to take on a Hornets team just waiting to pound. They’re still without LaMelo Ball but they’re healthy otherwise off 3 days of rest. Not a great team yet but this is a nice situation for them to take advantage and feel good about themselves. Hornets roll.
Bye Weeks: None
Key Injuries:
Waiver Wire:
Non-Starters Trending Up for Week 12
Busts:
Nasty Sleeper:
RB Jeff Wilson vs the horrible Texans D.
Contest-winner and pro handicapper Chris Farley is back to talk the Thanksgiving NFL slate and some of his favorite NBA plays on the November 22nd card. Tune in for this quick, amped up podcast from FarleyBets!
Want Chris’ premium picks? Well, you should probably consider it. Chris started off his NBA season white hot, up nearly 7 units and hitting at 58% out the gate. He also had a big week in NFL Week 10 and historically, the second half of the season is where he does best! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
Coming off a 3-1 night in CBB to start the week, I’m back today with 4 more plays for you. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Akron TT UNDER 65.5 vs LSU–12:30 PM CT
*CBB(0.5u): Rider TT UNDER 61 @ Rutgers–6 PM CT
*CBB(0.5u): Northwestern -3 vs Liberty–7:30 PM CT
*CBB(0.5u): Arizona State -18.5 vs Grambling State–8 PM CT
No write-ups for today… I’ll be back later this evening with my weeknight CFB action
