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World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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Seamus Power took home the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He struggled a bit on Sunday but was able to close it out. We just missed on our outright sections with Kevin Yu (80-1) and Patrick Rodgers (30-1) finished two off the lead.

The PGA Tour travels to Playa Carmen, Mexico this week. This event has been held here since 2007 so we do have some course history. However, we do not have any ShotLink data. It’s a decent field with Scheffler, Hovland, and Morikawa all making the trip so it should be an exciting event.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: November 3rd, 2022- November 6th, 2022
  • Location: Playa Carmen, Mexico
  • Course: El Camaleon GC at the Mayakoba Resort
  • Course Type: Coastal
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,017 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
  • Fairways: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
  • Rough: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum 2″
  • Bunkers: A lot
  • Water Hazards: A lot (canals run through the course, holes border the ocean)
  • Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 11  ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $8,200,000/$1,476,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2021: 69.10 (-1.90), Rank 40 of 50
    • 2020: 69.77 (-1.23), Rank 39 of 51
    • 2019: 70.09 (-0.91), Rank 21 of 41
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2021: -4
    • 2020: -1
    • 2019: -1

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Greg Norman (2006)
  • Renovations: N/A

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Corales Golf Course – Corales Puntacana Championship – (RESULTS)
    • Waialae Country Club – Sony Open in Hawaii – (RESULTS)
    • Pebble Beach Golf Links – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – (RESULTS)
  • Comparable Greens (Sea Isle 1 Paspalum):
    • Grand Reserve Golf Club – Sea Dwarf Paspalum – Puerto Rico Open
    • Corales Golf Course – Supreme paspalum .100” – Corales Puntacana Championship
    • Vidanta Vallarta – Paspalum – Mexico Open at Vidanta
  • Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cadence Bank Houston Open
    • PGA National Resort – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
    • Vidanta Vallarta – 7,000 sq. ft. – Mexico Open at Vidanta

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, November 3rd, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, November 4th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, November 5th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, November 6th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Thunderstorms 80 F, 11 mp/h E, 86% Humidity, 90% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Scattered Thunderstorms 81 F, 11 mp/h E, 77% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Partly Cloudy 79 F, 9 mp/h E, 73% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Mostly Sunny 79 F, 7 mp/h ENE, 68% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

In 2007, El Camaleon became the home of the Mayakoba Golf Classic, the first PGA Tour event to ever be held outside the US and Canada. The first six editions of this event were played in February however, in 2013, the event moved to November where it has remained.

This WWT Championship at Mayakoba was originally an alternate event being held the same week as the WGC Match Play event. However, when it was moved to November this tournament also became a primary event with the full FedEx Cup points offered.

Last year, World Wide Technology became the sponsor and will retain rights until 2027. The purse has also increased a million dollars from last year.

72-Hole Record: 261, Viktor Hovland (2021)

18-Hole Record: 61, Roland Thatcher (3rd round, 2008)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

El Camaleon is another coastal course that is relatively short but, will punish players off the tee if they miss the fairway. The course is lined with thick woods throughout the course so accuracy off the tee will be placed at a premium this week. In addition to the woods/ jungle surrounding most holes, the course also features a lot of water. The water hazards do not necessarily come into play every hole but, a miss right or left can mean trouble. Most holes also have bunkers surrounding the greens which again will mean approach shots need to be on. The wind we saw last week in Bermuda won’t be as bad but, it will need to be considered on holes that border the ocean. Given the previous winner’s scores, players will need to take advantage of every birdie opportunity. The three Par 5’s on the course are relatively short so players should have a few eagle looks deepening on their approach shot.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
  • Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
  • Scrambling
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

  • Scottie Scheffler (+900), is coming off a T45 at the CJ in South Carolina. He’s played here twice before finishing T18 in 2020 and 4th in 2021.
  • Viktor Hovland (+1100), has won the last two editions of the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. He’s been playing some great golf as of late with a T21 finish at the CJ Cup and a T5 finish at the ZOZO Championship.
  • Billy Horschel (+1800), enters this event off a T7 finish at the CJ Cup. He’s played at Mayakoba seven times before finishing inside the top 10 in two of his last three appearances here.
  • Collin Morikawa (+1800), will make his debut this week at Mayakoba. He’s been trending in the right direction finishing T45 at the ZOZO Championship and following that up with a  T29 finish at the CJ Cup.
  • Tony Finau (+1800), has three top-20 finishes at Mayakoba in his six appearances. He’ll be making his first start of the 2022-23 season this week.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Viktor Hovland (’21, ’20), Brendon Todd (’19), Matt Kuchar (’18), Patton Kizzire (’17), Charley Hoffman (’14), Harris English (’13), John Huh (’12)

 

Notable Withdraws: Webb Simpson, Taylor Moore, Denny McCarthy, Nicholas Lindheim, Vince Whaley, Kelly Kraft

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

  • Viktor Hovland: MC/ MC/ 1/ 1
  • Adam Long: T2/ T3/ T22
  • Scottie Scheffler: T18/ 4
  • Matt Kuchar: T18/ T3/ T68/ 1/ T14/ T22
  • Maverick McNealy: T26/ T12/ T11
  • Brendon Todd: MC/ T49/ MC/ 1/ T8/ T11
  • Billy Horschel: T13/ T30/ MC/ T21/ T8/ T5/ T33
  • Aaron Wise: T55/ MC/ T10/ MC/ 2/ T15
  • Danny Lee: WD/ MC/ T3/ WD/ 2T5/ 2/ T26/ T7
  • Emiliano Grillo: T10/ T9/ 15/ T41/ T8/ MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

  • Michael Gligic: MC/ MC
  • Sebastian Vazquez: MC/ MC/ MC
  • Joseph Bramlett: T65/ MC/ MC
  • An Byeong-Hun: MC/ MC
  • Juan Sebastian Munoz: T64/ MC/ MC
  • Michael Kim: T51/ MC/ MC/ MC
  • David Lingmerth: MC/ MC/ WD

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23)
    • Price: 18-1
  • 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
    • Price: 22-1
  • 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
    • Price: 110-1
  • 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
    • Price: 60-1
  • 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
    • Price: 70-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

My apologies for no writeups this week, my laptop crashed halfway through the article and I lost all progress.

  • Collin Morikawa (+1800) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
  • Tom Hoge (+3000) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
  • Taylor Montgomery (+4000) – Caesars
    • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
  • Nick Hardy (+8000) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.02 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Emiliano Grillo (+125) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Grillo has been trending upwards as of late finishing inside the top 45 in four of his last five starts. During that span, he finished T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 4th at the ZOZO Championship. He has solid course history here finishing inside the top 10 three times in his six appearances. Grillo has also played well at a course comp this week, the Puerto Rico Open.

He’s not long off the tee but given the short course and tight fairways, accuracy is more important. He currently ranks 53rd in Driving Accuracy, 17th in GIR %, and 73rd in SG: Approach. Grillo’s also gained strokes on this course five of six times with last year being the only outlier. This course fits him well and if he can gain strokes on approach, he should fair well here.

  • Brendon Todd (+170) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units

Todd’s been in great form as of late with two top-10 finishes in his last four starts on Tour. He has some impressive course history here as well winning in 2019 and finishing 8th and 11th in the following years. In each of his last three starts at El Camaleon GC, he’s gained over 1.75 total strokes total.

He ranks 44th in Driving Accuracy which is important this week given the tight fairways. His approach game has also been trending upwards ranking 32nd in strokes gained. A few weeks ago at the CJ Cup, he nearly gained two strokes on approach. His putting has also been good gaining strokes in each of his last four starts. Given his recent play and course history, I like him to finish inside the top 20 for a fourth consecutive year.

Just Missed: Matt Kuchar, Adam Long

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Harris English (+100) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Harris English has been in good form finishing inside the top 40 in three of his last four starts. His best finish during that span was at Silverado Resort and Spa where he finished T9. In terms of course history, he’s had success here finishing T5 in back-to-back appearances and winning this event in 2013.

He ranks well in most of the key categories this week with his tee game being the only area of concern. He’s not long off the tee by any means and as we saw at the CJ Cup, he wasn’t accurate at all. Despite all of that, he still managed to finish T40.

  • Joel Dahmen (+100) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Joel Dahmen has finished inside the top 40 in each of his last three starts on Tour. At El Camaleon GC he’s finished no higher than T45 in his six appearances. He ranks well in each of the key categories this week outside of putting. He’s lost strokes on the green in each of his three starts but has still placed well. This is the lone outlier this week as it is a bit of an unknown for him. However, if he can putt well this week, I like him even more. Dahmen also won the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021 which has a similar green complex.

Just Missed: Justin Lower, Nick Taylor

Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the WWT Championship at Mayakoba: 5.02 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

November 2nd MLB Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

We cashed the F5 Over in Game 3 of the World Series, and I’m right back at it tonight with another play in Game 4. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(0.83u): Phillies to score 1st(+120) vs Astros–7:03 PM CT

This is a bit of an unconventional play, but I think it’s a good way to avoid a scenario that has become too prevalent to ignore.

There is a lot to like about Phillies SP Aaron Nola; he has held a WHIP at or below 1.00 at Citizens Bank Park each of the past 3 seasons. However, Nola consistently struggles to finish starts, often sputtering in his 2nd/3rd turn through the order. It was a theme throughout the regular season, and it has bit him in each of his past 2 starts this postseason. With that said, I do expect him to look good early in this start. The Astros have really sputtered vs righties on the road down the stretch of this season; since August 1st, they hold a measly 83 wRC+ in this role(100 is league average).

The Phillies have been an absolute juggernaut vs right-handed pitching at home for months now; they hold the highest wRC+ in this role since August 1st. They came into last night having already gotten after Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove this postseason, and then they erupted with 5 HR’s(!) off of righty Lance McCullers Jr. Astros SP Christian Javier had a breakout 2022 season, but I worry about a few aspects of this matchup for him. First off, this is just Javier’s 2nd postseason start here in 2022; contrastly, Aaron Nola will be making his 5th start of the postseason. Secondly, Javier is a heavy fly-ball pitcher, producing twice as many fly balls as ground balls. While his ability to limit hard contact has allowed him to limit HR’s to just 1/9 innings this year, I don’t expect this style to translate well to hitter-friendly ballpark against this slew of Phillies power hitters. Given the Phillies’ current form offensively and acumen in this role down the stretch, I’m expecting another hot start from them in this game.

If you like the Phillies in this game, ISOLATE THEM IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS. They still hold a major bullpen disadvantage.

NBA Play Corrections

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hi All! Not seeing many books that have the number we wanted in the Knicks/Hawks 1H so I’m fading that play. I’ll still take the Bucks at 1Q -4, however.

Corrections below:
Hawks/Knicks over 118 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Knicks over 228.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks and Knicks are among the highest scoring teams in the 1st half. They’re also both in the top half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency. I also think Trae Young vs. Jalen Brunson is a battle where both players can win offensively on a regular basis. I like this even more since both teams are overdue for positive regression on offense; each are coming off losses where they scored way under their average. Overs!
Bucks 1Q -4 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Bucks 1H -7 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
We saw in the last game and I think we’ll see it again here. The Bucks allowed Detroit to get way too close to a win in their first matchup on Monday. It felt like Giannis kind of took it easy on ’em in that contest; he just wasn’t as active. Still, the Bucks won the last first half by 8 points and the Pistons are among the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the first 24 minutes of play. Guess who’s among the best– Milwaukee. Taking the Bucks early.

Typo: Knicks/Hawks 1H Over

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hawks/Knicks 1H over 118 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Knicks over 228.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks and Knicks are among the highest scoring teams in the 1st half. They’re also both in the top half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency. I also think Trae Young vs. Jalen Brunson is a battle where both players can win offensively on a regular basis. I like this even more since both teams are overdue for positive regression on offense; each are coming off losses where they scored way under their average. Overs!

NBA Premiums, 11.2

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Another winning night in the NBA has us at nearly +14 units through 2 weeks. That’s pretty incredible. Could this be our biggest winning NBA season to date?

Let’s not go that far just yet. Gotta stay humble, onto the next day.

Wizards +8 (-110), to win 1 unit
The 76ers beat the Wizards two days ago because of a surge in the 3rd quarter but I love the Wizards in a rematch. They’re one of the best defenses in the NBA out the gate, just like they were last season, and I don’t think they’ll lose that luster in game two against a 76ers team that’s already playing poorly at home (1-2 ATS) and we all know has real struggles on offense. The Wizards can be competitive and in the last game they were just overdependent on Kristaps Porzingis. I think they keep this one much closer– Philly is one of the lowest scoring second half teams and the Wiz shouldn’t let that surge happen again.
Hawks/Knicks over 118 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Knicks over 228.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks and Knicks are among the highest scoring teams in the 1st half. They’re also both in the top half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency. I also think Trae Young vs. Jalen Brunson is a battle where both players can win offensively on a regular basis. I like this even more since both teams are overdue for positive regression on offense; each are coming off losses where they scored way under their average. Overs!
Bucks 1Q -3.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Bucks 1H -7.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
We saw in the last game and I think we’ll see it again here. The Bucks allowed Detroit to get way too close to a win in their first matchup on Monday. It felt like Giannis kind of took it easy on ’em in that contest; he just wasn’t as active. Still, the Bucks won the last first half by 8 points and the Pistons are among the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the first 24 minutes of play. Guess who’s among the best– Milwaukee. Taking the Bucks early.
Raptors -7 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Toronto’s length should be a huge problem for the Spurs and there’s a real chance that Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell could sit out against the Raptors, which is bad news for San Antonio. That tandem has combined for 43.7 points per game, approximately 37% of their nightly scoring production. Yikes. I’m taking the Raptors to annihilate San Antonio on their home turf.

CFB Week 10 Weather Plays

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Lots of inclement weather will interfere in this week’s games and here are a few contests where I think the under should (easily) hit. Jinxes aren’t real, don’t worry.

Oregon St/Washington St under 55 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both of these teams have better defenses than given credit for. They also have subpar offenses and this game will see 18 mph winds.
Ohio State/Northwestern under 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
We’ve seen the Buckeyes play down to their competition and we think this will be the quintessential example. It’s a sleepy, sleeeepy spot after a big win at Happy Valley and Northwestern is always a tough competitor. There will also be a 90+% chance of rain and over 20 mph winds blowing in. Under and the dog.
 
Iowa/Purdue under 41 (-110), to win 2 units
It’s an Iowa game and there’s gonna be upwards of 32 mph winds in this contest. Yea, that’s worth a 2 unit under play for this guy.
Maryland/Wisconsin under 50.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maryland can score points but there’s a 93% chance of rain and 20 mph winds will be ripping through Badger Stadium. Plus, have you seen Wisconsin’s offense function? Ugly.

Expected Bets For – Episode 25 – November 1st, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
-

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the two games for November 2nd along with several other topics.

 

Topics:

  • Around the League
  • NHL Underachievers/ Overachievers
    • Players
    • Teams
  • NHL Preview/ Picks – November 2nd, 2022
    • Philadelphia Flyers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
    • Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres

 

Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
  • Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
  • Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

NHL Preview & Picks – November 1st, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
-

We have a massive slate tonight with twelve games taking place across the NHL. I’ll break down my picks and offer a few player props to target.

 

Pick(s):

  • Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units

We have a rematch of the 2018 Cup Final as the Golden Knights take on the Washington Capitals.

The Golden Knights have gone 8-2-0 to start the season under new head coach Bruce Cassidy. They’ll begin a four-game road trip tonight starting in the nation’s capital.

Washington has been plagued by injuries to start the season. They’ve gone 5-4-1 and lost last night to the Hurricanes 3-2 in a Shootout.

Vegas has looked strong in all areas but especially on defense. The Golden Knights lead the league in GA/G averaging just 1.7. Offensively, they rank 14th in GF/G and 4th in xG%. Logan Thompson has also stepped up and solidified himself as the permanent starter for this squad with a +5.1 GSAx through 6 games.

As I previously mentioned Washington has several key players injured including John Carlson and T.J. Oshie. Connor Brown, Nick Backstrom, and Tom Wilson are also out on IR. Washington ranks 22nd in GF/G but has been solid defensively ranking 10th in GA/G. Charlie Lindgren is expected to get the start for tonight who’s been great to start the year. In his two starts, he has a +3.3 GSAx.

This spot heavily favors the Golden Knights with the Capitals coming off a hard-fought battle against the Hurricanes last night. While Washington has been better at home, I believe Vegas can take this game on the road. I also like the over here. Vegas Golden Knights/ Over 6.5 is +215 on DraftKings, just saying.

 

  • Boston Bruins/ Pittsburgh Penguins over 6.0 (-125) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.31 to win 0.25 Units

The Boston Bruins are currently tied for the most points in the NHL with the Golden Knights but have a game in hand. They’ve been red hot starting off the year 8-1 under new head coach Jim Montgomery.

Pittsburgh on the other hand has had a mediocre start going 4-4-1 through their first nine games. The good news for them is that they’ve been much better at home with a 3-0-0 record.

Boston currently ranks 1st in GF/G averaging 4.22, mainly thanks to David Pastrnak who’s averaging nearly two points per game. Brad Marchand has also returned to the lineup sooner than most expected tallying three points in his season debut. On the road, Boston improves offensively averaging 4.67 GF/G. While they only average 2.33 GA/G overall, away from home that number jumps up to 3.00.

Pittsburgh has also been good up front averaging 3.56 GF/G ranking 7th. Shockingly, Sidney Crosby leads their team in points but they’ve also had some depth production from Carter, Guentzel, Heinen, and Zucker. I mentioned this above but Pittsburgh has been much better at home where they average 6.00 GF/G.

Given each team’s home/away splits, I like the over here. While Ulmark has been great to start the year, I still believe Pittsburgh will be able to get a few by him. Jarry on the other hand has struggled in his six starts and will face the number one offense tonight.

 

  • Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units

The Predators have had a bizarre start to their season. They played their first two games in Prague, where they won both against an inferior opponent. Since then, they’ve lost six of their last seven games.

Edmonton seems to be clicking on all cylinders at the moment and is coming off a 3-0 road trip where they defeated St. Louis, Chicago, and rival Calgary.

Nashville has struggled to produce offensively ranking 29th in GF/G averaging 2.44. On the road, that number drops to 2.33 GF/G. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack averaging 3.11 GA/G but away from home that number jumps to 4.00 GA/G.

Edmonton’s offense has been red hot lately and on the year averages 3.78 GF/G. That number slightly drops at home but is not large enough to warrant concern. Defensively, they’ve improved since the start of the year and average 3.11 GA/G.

Nashville relies heavily on Juuse Saro’s and when you combine his lackluster play with their inability to produce offensively, it’s not a great combination. Edmonton has looked more like the team we thought they would be and is getting depth production from their second and third lines up front. While goaltending remains an issue for the Oilers with Jack Campbell struggling, I still like the Oilers to put together a solid performance tonight and win at home.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
    • He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and over 7 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Philadelphia also ranks 30th in SOG Allowed per game.
  • Jake DeBrusk over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and 6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in SOG Allowed per game.
  • Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-150)
    • He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.6 SOG and over 8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Arizona also ranks 31st in SOG Allowed per game.
  • Vincent Trocheck over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190)
    • He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 SOG and over 7 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five games. Philadelphia also ranks 30th in SOG Allowed per game.
  • Nicholas Paul over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-200)
    • He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 SOG and over 3 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 SOG in four of his last five. Ottawa also ranks 26th in SOG Allowed per game.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

November 1st MLB Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

I handed out a play in this matchup yesterday, but the postponement gives us a different pitching matchup today. As such, I am on a new(but similar) play for Game 3 of the World Series. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Astros/Phillies F5 OVER 4(-120)–7:03 PM CT

I initially played the Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5, but upon last night’s postponement and today’s pitching change, I like the Astros offense equally as much as I do Philadelphia’s early in this game.

The Phillies handled righties in their home ballpark better than any team in baseball down the final 2 months of the season(136 wRC+), and that has carried over into the postseason. The Phillies have crushed the likes of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr does have postseason pedigree, but a large chunk of that dates back to the 2017 ALCS. I’m not afraid to bet against McCullers because he has walked over 4.5 BB/9 on the road each of the past 2 seasons and looked shaky against the Yankees in his last start. McCullers is no more equipped to hold down this Phillies lineup than any of the other 4 aforementioned arms; I think Philadelphia puts up at least 2 in the F5.

The Astros struggled vs righties on the road down the stretch of the season(which is why I was hesitant to back them last night), but the same can’t be said about how they’ve fared vs lefties. Over the final 2 months of the season, Houston held the best wRC+ in baseball(137) on the road vs left-handed pitching. Phillies SP Ranger Suarez had an inconsistent 2022 season, especially at Citizens Bank Park(4.27 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). While he still does a good job of producing ground-balls, he allowed more than double the amount of HR’s this year than he did in 2021. I like the way Houston matches up with this “pitch-to-contact” lefty. 

With two fresh bullpens, I really don’t want any part of the later innings. Both of these SP’s are vulnerable in this particular matchup, and I expect both offenses to be able to take advantage.

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