We have a massive slate tonight with ten games taking place across the NHL. I didn’t have any plays yesterday so today’s card will be slightly larger than normal. As always, I’m keeping it light for the first few weeks until we can fully analyze these teams.
Game Previews:
Detroit Red Wings (+190) @ Boston Bruins (-225)
Detroit’s had a strong start to the year but, have lost three of their last four games. They’ll look to turn things around against a strong opponent.
The Boston Bruins are red hot right now despite missing some of their core guys. Brad Marchand has returned to the ice and it looks like they’ll get him back sooner than expected. Boston’s unbeaten at home and 6-1 overall with their only loss coming in Ottawa.
DET: Ville Husso (expected)
BOS: Jeremy Swayman (expected)
Florida Panthers (-200) @ Philadelphia Flyers (+170)
The Panthers have started the season 4-2-1. In their last game, they lost to Chicago 4-2 on the road. They’ve been able to generate a ton of offense ranking 5th in xG% but have been unable to capitalize on their chances ranking 26th in Shooting %.
Philadelphia has had a surprising start going 4-2 under new head coach John Tortorella. They haven’t been able to generate a ton of offense but have gotten some great goaltending from Carter Hart who ranks 3rd in GSAx.
FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (expected)
PHI: Carter Hart (expected)
Montreal Canadiens (+140) @ Buffalo Sabres (-165)
Montreal currently sits at the bottom of the Atlantic Division with a 3-4 record. They’ve been above average defensively but have struggled to find the back of the net ranking 26th in GF/G.
Buffalo’s coming off a west coast road trip where they went 3-1 defeating the Flames, Oilers, and Canucks. They currently rank 2nd in GFPG and 3rd in GA/G. On top of that Craig Anderson and Eric Comrie have provided some above-average goaltending.
MTL: Jake Allen (expected)
BUF: Eric Comrie (expected)
Minnesota Wild (-120) @ Ottawa Senators (+100)
Minnesota has had a lackluster start to the year with a 2-3-1 record. They rank 6th in GF/G but dead last in the league in GA/G. Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t been great either with a 5.24 GAA through three starts.
Ottawa’s on a four-game win streak after dropping their first two games. All four of those games they won were at home and the two they lost were on the road. During that span, they’ve averaged over five goals for and less than three goals against.
MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury (expected)
OTT: Anton Forsberg (expected)
St. Louis Blues (+135) @ Nashville Predators (-155)
St. Louis is coming off a game against the Edmonton Oilers last night (Wednesday). They haven’t had the same offensive production as last year but have been fantastic defensively ranking 4th in GA/G.
Nashville is currently 7th in the Central Division with a 2-4-1 record. They haven’t been great in any area but more specifically on offense. Juuse Saros also hasn’t looked like a Vezina Finalist through four games with a GAA above 3.00.
STL: Thomas Greiss (expected)
NSH: Juuse Saros (expected)
Washington Capitals (+100) @ Dallas Stars (-120)
The Capitals enter this matchup on a two-game win streak knocking off the Kings and Devils. They’ll be playing their second game of a four-game road trip. Washington hasn’t been able to produce offensively but ranks 25th in GA/G.
Dallas has had a strong start to the season anchored by Jake Oettinger who has a 1.25 GAA and .959 SV%. They’ve also been great offensively ranking 7th in GF/G. However, they’re on a bit of a cold streak dropping their last two games.
WSH: Darcy Kuemper (expected)
DAL: Jake Oettinger (expected)
Edmonton Oilers (-210) @ Chicago Blackhawks (+180)
Edmonton’s coming off a game against the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday night. They’ve looked like a classic Oilers team so far with a solid offensive and lackluster defense. New goaltender Jack Campbell hasn’t been great either with a 3.61 GAA.
Just like the Flyers, the Blackhawks have had a surprising start to the season going 4-2, and are undefeated at home. They rank in the middle of the pack for GF/G and GA/G. Chicago doesn’t generate a ton of offensive scoring chances but have been great at capitalizing on the ones they do.
EDM: Jack Campbell (expected)
CHI: Alex Stalock (expected)
Vancouver Canucks (+105) @ Seattle Kraken (-125)
The Canucks are winless to start the year going 0-5-2. They’ve blown leads in nearly all of their games. Thatcher Demko hasn’t been great with a 4.06 GAA and .872 SV%.
Seattle has started the season off 3-3 defeating the Sabres in their last game 5-1. They haven’t been great in any particular category but have been able to find ways to win in a few games.
VAN: Thatcher Demko (expected)
SEA: Martin Jones (expected)
Toronto Maple Leafs (-210) @ San Jose Sharks (+180)
Toronto is 4-3 on the season coming off a loss against the Golden Knights on Monday. They’ve been great at home but have struggled on the road. Newly acquired Ilya Samsonov has provided them with some stable goaltending ranking 4th in GSAx.
San Jose hasn’t had a great start to the year going 2-7. They’ve struggled to produce offensively ranking dead last in GF/G. Their goaltending has also been sub-par with the combination of Reimer and Kahkonen.
TOR: Erik Kallgren (expected)
SJS: Kaapo Kahkonen (expected)
Winnipeg Jets (+125) @ Los Angeles Kings (-145)
The Winnipeg Jets snapped their two-game losing streak against the Blues on Monday defeating them 4-0. They’ve been great defensively ranking 9th in GA/G but have struggled to find the back of the net ranking 26th in GF/G.
Los Angeles has started the season off 4-4 and sits in 4th place in the Pacific division. Jonathan Quick has gotten off to a slow start after having an unbelieve season last year.
WPG: Connor Hellebuyck (expected)
LAK: Jonathan Quick (expected)
Pick(s):
Dallas Stars (-120) – FanDuel
Risk 0.30 to win 0.25 Units
The Stars are coming off back-to-back road losses against the Senators and Bruins. They return home and will face a Washington team that’s won their last two. This will be the first game of a three-game road trip for the Capitals.
In those last two games, Dallas struggled to produce offensively. However, if we look at the home and away split for them, they’ve been immensely better on home ice. Washington on the other hand, has struggled on the road.
Dallas is expected to have Oettinger in net who ranks 1st in the NHL in GSAx with a +7.2. Washington is likely to have Darcy Kuemper in the net who ranks 41st in that category.
Buffalo Sabres in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
The Sabres are coming off their worst performance of the year in Seattle. To be fair, it was the last game of a four-game road trip so I’m sure exhaustion played a role. Despite that loss, they’ve been great to start the season ranking 2nd in GF/G and 3rd in GA/G.
Montreal has dropped their last two games and will begin a four-game road trip tonight. They’ve been above average at home but have looked like a different team on the road. In their two road games, they’ve averaged 0.50 GF/G and 3.00 GA/G.
While I’m sure Montreal will improve on the road eventually, the Sabres have shown that they can rebound from a disappointing performance. Earlier this season, they lost 7-1 to Pittsburg and bounced back the next game with a 4-1 win upsetting Ottawa.
Eric Comrie is expected to start for Buffalo while Jake Allen is the likely starter for Montreal. Allen does have the advantage in terms of GSAx but Comrie isn’t far behind.
Edmonton Oilers/ Chicago Blackhawks over 6.5 (-125) – Caesars
Risk 0.31 to win 0.25 Units
The Oilers are coming off a game last night where they took down the Blues 3-1. Tonight they’ll face off against the Blackhawks in their second game of a three-game road trip. Edmonton’s been clicking offensively behind the usual combination of McDavid and Draisaitl. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zack Hyman have also been averaging a point per game which is some much-needed depth scoring for this squad. Defensively, they’ve continued to struggle ranking 22nd in the NHL in GA/G and 23rd in SOGA/G.
Chicago ranks 15th in GF/G and has been getting some solid depth production offensively. At home, they’ve also been better with a 4.33 GF/G compared their average of 3.33 GF/G overall. Defensively, they’ve been above average ranking 13th in GA/G.
I believe this game goes over the total for a bunch of reasons. The first is offense, both of these teams have been able to produce this season and face weaker defenses. The Oilers and Chicago rank near the bottom in terms of SOGA/G.
Goaltending is another reason, Campbell has been poor to start the year. The Blackhawks should be able to get at least 2-3 by him. Stalock has played pretty well to start the year but has shown he can have a blowup game. In his last two games, he faced offenses worse than Edmonton’s and allowed two or more goals in both matchups. Edmonton’s speed should also provide Chicago’s defense with some issues. Chicago also ranks 30th in Penalty minutes which will provide the Oiler’s PP, which ranks 3rd, several opportunities against Chicago’s PK which ranks 17th.
Player Props to Target:
Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-105)
Tkachuk has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in six of the first seven games. Last year when he was on the Flames, he went over this number in two of three matchups. This year on the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of four games.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saints out-gained the Cardinals 494 to 326 yet lost 42-34. A 3-0 turnover ratio killed them along with 8 penalties. Andy Dalton lost the game.
The Lions were out-gained only 330 to 312 yet lost 24-6. A 5-1 turnover ratio did them in. Goff regressing bad.
The Colts out-gained the Titans 292 to 254 yet lost 19-10. A 3-1 turnover ratio in horrible spots killed it for the Colts. Matt Ryan lost the game.
The Panthers only out-gained the Buccaneers 343 to 322 yet won 21-3. Equal turnovers and horrible red zone efficiency hurt the Bucs.
The Jaguars out-gained the Giants 452 to 436 yet lost 23-17. A 1-0 turnover ratio, 13 penalties and and poor coaching did the Jaguars in. Also time of possession was only 25:50.
The Browns out-gained the Ravens 336 to 254 yet lost 23-20. A 2-1 turnover ratio and horrible 2/11 3rd down killed them.
The Broncos out-gained the Jets 324 to 260 yet lost 16-9. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 3/16 3rd down hurt bad.
Lots of the Texans yard vs the Raiders were garbage.
Cincinnati out-gained SMU 379 to 259 yet win 29-27. They also won the turnover battle but choked a spread winning TD at the end. 14 Penalties to 3 gave SMU a 10 + home field advantage.
Miami’s yards were garbage time vs Duke but they lost their QB earlier in the game. Miami had 8 turnovers. Yikes.
Toledo out-gained Buffalo 438 to 399 yet lost 34-27. A 6-1 turnover ratio killed them. They were up by double digits.
Rice out-gained Louisiana Tech 487 to 373 yet only won 42-41 in overtime. A 3-1 turnover ratio hurt bad.
Northern Illinois out-gained Ohio 377 to 354 yet lost 24-17. Equal turnovers and bad 3rd down got them. Also home field got them 6 penalties to 0.
Texas and Oklahoma State were close in yards but Texas had 14 penalties and Oklahoma state had none! They had a big home field advantage tonight.
Memphis out-gained Tulane 415 to 344 yet lost 38-28. A 4-0 turnover ratio and terrible red zone killed them.
Texas A&M out-gained South Carolina 398 to 286 yet lost 30-24. Equal turnovers and bad red zone efficiency hurt the Aggies. Some of those yards was a garbage drive at the end.
Pittsburgh out-gained Louisville 326 to 312 yet lost 24-10. A 4-1 turnover ratio did them in.
Adding one more and amending the Knicks/Hornets over:
Heat/Blazers under 222 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Blazers have a kushy schedule to start the season and somehow they’re finally playing some defense. Top 10 in DEF EFF and exceptional at limiting second-chance opportunities to their opponents, Portland has started off looking disciplined and stingy on the defensive side of the ball. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant have certainly helped in that regard, too. The Heat are typically good in these tough road spots and they lean on stellar defensive effort to get it done. I have this total ar 217– gotta take an under.
Hornets/Knicks over 226, to win 2.5 units
I don’t see this total out yet anywhere but when it does come out, take it if it’s anything at 232 or less. I have this total set at 240. The Knicks are running faster; Thibs made it clear that’s what they want to do and an aggressive Jalen Brunson only helps. The Hornets run even faster historically on the road and they’ll try to out-pace a more physical Knicks’ team. One hand feeds the other– love points here. This is why a flat-unit model doesn’t work; as handicappers we need to know when to pull the trigger on a bigger play. My disparity is too significant to not play big on this wager. It’s early so we won’t go 3 units or more, but 2.5 units feels right.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only loss the Jazz had this year? Against the piss-poor Rockets in their opener. The Jazz are8 apparently a formidable outfit and the Rockets are not, and this is a good spot for a little early revenge. Conley and Markennen in particular look like a comfortable duo. Jazz roll. This line could go down in favor of Houston so it’s up to you if you want to wait. I’m content with taking it for 1 unit now.
Nuggets -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The up and down Nuggets love to show their bipolar personality but this is a great spot, at home, against the God-awful Lakers to put on a show. One of the reasons why the Lakers just can’t sustain wins is that, despite how bad they are, teams never treat them like a bad team because of Lebron. A motivated Nuggets should easily handle LAL.
Rory McIlroy takes home the CJ Cup and moves to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. This is the first time he’s held this spot since July 2020. He also joins Tiger Woods as the only reigning FedEx Cup Champion to win his season debut.
The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. This is the first of two consecutive events held outside the United States. Next week, the World Wide Technology Championship will be held in Mexico.
The inaugural Butterfield Bermuda Championship was held in 2019, however, it was an alternate event back then. In 2020, this event started to offer 500 FedEx Cup points and became an official event on the Tour.
Port Royal Golf Course has played host to this event since its inauguration. It was founded in 1965 but didn’t open until 1970 under the design of Robert Trent Jones. Through the years, the course had underwent several renovations but, the last major renovation was by Roger Rulewich in 2008 in preparation for hosting the 2009 PGA Grand Slam of Golf.
72-Hole Record: 260, Brendon Todd (2019)
18-Hole Record: 61, Taylor Pendrith (Round 2, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that plays 6,828 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. It’s one of the shortest courses on Tour with the main defense being the wind. This week, accuracy is more important than distance off the tee given the narrow fairways and punishing rough.
The four Par 3’s range between 148 yards and 235 yards. At the 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, only one (No. 3), had a scoring average under par.
No. 16, is one of the most spectacular holes in world golf. Players will have to hit a solid tee shot across the ocean to an elevated green on its own peninsular. The green itself is surrounded by numerous bunkers. As if the hole wasn’t difficult enough the wind coming off the ocean is a major factor to consider.
Only four of the eleven Par 4’s are over 450 yards. No. 10 is the shortest Par 4’s listed at 350 yards with the longest being No. 4, at 458 yards.
No. 18, is a long straight uphill par 4 requiring a precise tee shot onto a tiered fairway littered with bunkers. On their approach. players will have to hit into a raised green that slopes back to front.
The three Par 5’s are No. 2, 7, and 17. None of the Par 5’s are listed over 600 yards. All of the Par 5’s had a scoring average below par at the 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
No. 14, is a challenging Par 4 that emphasizes accuracy over distance off the tee. It’s a slight dogleg left where players will want to try and position themselves along the right side of the fairway to have an easier approach shot in. If players are along the left side, the green may not be completely visible. The green’s slightly elevated providing an additional challenge and slopes severely off the right side towards a bunker.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Driving Accuracy
Par 3 Scoring: 200-250 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Scrambling
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Denny McCarthy (+1400), has played in this event three times before finishing T15/ T4/ T39. He’s been pretty active to start the 2022-23 PGA Tour season playing in four events. During that span, he has three top-40 finishes and has only missed one cut (Shriners).
Thomas Detry (+1800), made his debut at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last year finishing T22. He’s been in great form recently to start the season with two top-12 finishes in three events.
Adrian Meronk (+1800), is 61st in the OWGR and normally plays on the DP (European) Tour where he’s 8th in the rankings. Last year, he played in two PGA Tour events finishing T42 at the Open and missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. This will be his first PGA Tour event of the 2022-23 season.
Mark Hubbard (+2500), has played in this event twice before finishing T41 and T22. Last week at the ZoZo Championship, he struggled finishing 66th in a 78-player field. However, before that he finished T28/ T5/ T21 in the three other events he competed in during the 2022-23 PGA Tour season.
Seamus Power (+2500), as played in this event three times before finishing T31/ T37/ T12. He’s played in three events to start the season, missing the cut once and finishing T30 and T49 in the other two events.
Previous Winners in the field: Brian Gay (2020)
Notable Withdraws: Vince Whaley, Anders Albertson, Davis Thompson, Boo Weekley, Peter Malnati
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses (’19/ ’20/ ’21):
Brian Gay: T3/ 1/ T12
Russell Knox: T11/ T16/ T12
David Hearn: T8/ T8/ T30
Kramer Hickok: T15/ T8/ T30
Denny McCarthy: T15/ T4/ T39
Peter Malnati: T21/ T21/ T7
Scott Piercy: T14/ T14/ –
Chesson Hadley: T16/ T16/ –
Donkeys for Courses (’19/ ’20/ ’21):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Michael Kim: MC/ MC/ MC
Tommy Gainey: MC/ MC/ MC
Michael Sims: MC/ MC/ MC
Charley Hoffman: MC/ MC/ –
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Lucas Herbert (-15)
Price: 80-1
2020: Brian Gay (-15)
Price: 200-1
2019: Brendon Todd (-24)
Price: 100-1
Picks (Outrights):
Patrick Rodgers (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Callum Tarren (+5500) – Bet365
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Chesson Hadley (+6000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Sam Ryder (+7000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Kevin Yu (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Scott Piercy (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Austin Smotherman (+10000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Chad Ramey (+13000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Mark Hubbard (+140) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Justin Lower (+160) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Nick Hardy (+170) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 3.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
C.T. Pan (+125) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: 5.03 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Getting some early picks in. If we get a 2-1 night by winning this Warriors 1H bet, it’ll feel lucky. Just one of those nights where it feels like our takes are off. Also– Warriors barely played Curry in the 1H (I called that shit coming on the BetUS show) and these refs are calling a shit ton of dumb fouls on Golden State. Feels shady. Anyway–
Hornets/Knicks anything over 232, to win 2 units
I don’t see this total out yet anywhere but when it does come out, take it if it’s anything at 232 or less. I have this total set at 240. The Knicks are running faster; Thibs made it clear that’s what they want to do and an aggressive Jalen Brunson only helps. The Hornets run even faster historically on the road and they’ll try to out-pace a more physical Knicks’ team. One hand feeds the other– love points here.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only loss the Jazz had this year? Against the piss-poor Rockets in their opener. The Jazz are8 apparently a formidable outfit and the Rockets are not, and this is a good spot for a little early revenge. Conley and Markennen in particular look like a comfortable duo. Jazz roll. This line could go down in favor of Houston so it’s up to you if you want to wait. I’m content with taking it for 1 unit now.
Nuggets -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The up and down Nuggets love to show their bipolar personality but this is a great spot, at home, against the God-awful Lakers to put on a show. One of the reasons why the Lakers just can’t sustain wins is that, despite how bad they are, teams never treat them like a bad team because of Lebron. A motivated Nuggets should easily handle LAL.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley goes over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for the weekend slate! Chris has a sensational week in betting, going 14-5 for +9 units in NBA and 8-3 for +7.55 units in NFL! He’ll look to keep it rollin’ in NFL Week 8 and beyond!
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
UCF +1 (-105), to win 1 unit I trust Guz Malzahn to make things right at home in what should be a raucous environment. Cincy is significantly less talented and has looked really poor in spots. The same could be said for UCF but they tripped last weekend in anticipation of this contest and I think they take care of business this go-round. UCF’s offense, which is 7th in the nation in yards per game, will be the difference.
Penn State +15.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
CJ Stroud has made some egregious mistakes lately and I don’t love that heading into Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions always play Ohio State hard and that’s especially true at home. I think it’s possible this line may fall before kickoff so let’s take it over 2 TDs now. Personally, I think the Buckeyes’ offense is overrated. Of course they’re really good; but they’re not historic.
Auburn +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is falling and falling so let’s take advantage of it while we can. Auburn is an explosive offense, top 5 in CFB in big plays, and all Arkansas does is ALLOW big plays to opposing offenses. At home and with historic ATS trends on their side, this feels like a FG game.
