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After a 7-2 week in CFB, we are back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are now 29-19 60% (+$4,565) in College Football and 6 plays locked in and 1 more game on the radar for the weekend! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Nebraska Cornhuskers travel to Indiana to take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday night. The Cornhuskers enter with a 3-3 record (1-5 ATS) after pulling out a victory by 1 points at Rutgers last week while the Boilermakers enter with a better strength of schedule and are 4-2 (3-3 ATS) after beating Maryland last week 31-29. Nebraska has lost to Northwestern, Georgia Southern and were blown out by Oklahoma while Purdue has lost their 2 games to ranked Penn State and Syracuse but a combined 7 points. Both offenses are similar in success rate stats but the Nebraska defense ranks 107th in success rate while Purdue’s D ranks 13th. Nebraska runs the ball 56% of their plays and come in averaging 3.94 YPR (88th) but they will be up against the Boilermakers rush defense that gives up just 2.95 YPR (14th). On the other side, Purdue passes the football in 58.1% of their plays (9th most) and enter with 300.5 passing YPG (20th) and will have the honor of going against the Nebraska defense that gives up 263 passing yards per game (106th). Although Purdue has not beaten anyone this season by more than 10 (a ranked Minnesota squad), other than Indiana St, this shapes up to have the recipe of 2-3 touchdown victory for the Boilermakers. It is also worth mentioning that this will be the best defense that Nebraska will have faced all season to this point. Take Purdue -13.5
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What a great opening night! The NHL rolls on today with a six-game slate but features no real marquee matchups.
Game Previews:
Boston Bruins @ Washington Capitals
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens
Chicago Blackhawks @ Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Carolina Hurricanes
Official Picks:
I think we see a low-scoring affair between these depleted rosters. The Bruins are going with Swayman while the Capitals will have Kuemper in net. Both of these goaltenders were great last year ranking inside the top 23 in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Taylor Hall and T.J Oshie are also both game-time decisions that could limit each team’s offensive production. Last year, the Bruins and Capitals both ranked inside the top 13 in goals against. While two of their three meetings last year did go over, I believe it’s a different story tonight.
Leans:
Player Props to Target:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We’re 2-0 in preseason bets hey hey heyyyyyy!
Nevada out-gained Colorado State 358 to 253 yet lost 17-14. They won the turnover battle as well but just had very bad field position and red zone efficiency.
Kansas out-gained TCU 540 to 452 yet lost 38-31. Equal turnovers and just horrible tackling got Kansas. They also had some bs calls go against them.
Texas Tech out-gained Oklahoma State 527 to 434 yet lost 41-31. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams hurt them.
Northern Illinois yards were mainly garbage.
Central Michigan out-gained Ball State 340 to 250 yet lost 17-16. Equal turnovers and terrible red zone efficiency hurt the Chippewas.
Miami out-gained North Carolina 538 to 470 yet lost 27-24. Equal turnovers but bad 3rd and 4th down efficiency hurt Miami. Field position was bad.
Washington out-gained Arizona State 458 to 397 yet lost 45-38. Equal turnovers, but bad red zone efficiency hurt the Huskies.
Appalachian State’s yards were garbage after falling way behind to Texas State.
FIU’s yards were garbage vs UCONN.
Kansas State out-gained Iowa State 388 to 276 yet only won 10-9. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency hurt them.
USC only out-gained Washington State 369 to 316 yet won 30-14. Poor officiating and 5 nasty sacks taken by the Cougs hurt them. Bad 3rd down efficiency as well.
Florida State out-gained NC State 387 to 307 yet lost 19-17. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley goes over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for the weekend slate, and this week he’s joined by Michael Neubert! Michael is co-founder of Sports Wagering University and has a ticket in this year’s Circa Sports Million! Get ready for your Week 6 bets with Chris and Michael!
Want Chris’ premium picks – you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
Tom Kim rides the momentum from the Presidents Cup and wins the Shriners Children’s Open. He became the first player since Tiger Woods to win twice on the PGA Tour before turning 21. What’s even more impressive is that he failed to record a single bogey all tournament.
The 4th edition Zozo Championship takes place this week at Narashino Country Club in Japan. Despite it being the 4th edition, this will only be the third time it’s held at this course. In 2020, the Zozo Championship took place in California due to the pandemic travel restrictions.
The TV Schedule is also a bit strange this week with the tournament taking place overseas. so get ready for those Saturday night/ Sunday morning sweats!!
Course Architect:
Comparable Courses & Greens:
TV Information:
Course/ Tournament History:
The Zozo Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Last year, with the restrictions lifted, it was held once again at Narashino Country Club.
Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Just three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.
72-Hole Record: 261, Tiger Woods (2019)
18-Hole Record: 63, Keegan Bradley (Round 1, 2019), Rory McIlroy (Round 3, 2019), Hiroshi Iwata (Round 1, 2021), Naoto Nakanishi (Round 4, 2021).
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. There have been two changes from last year in terms of yardage. Hole 5 has been increased from 191 yards to 205 yards and Hole 10 has been increased from 376 yards to 400 yards. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.
The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.
Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.
No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.
The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. It was also the only Par 5 to have a scoring average over par last year (+0.306).
No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
The Field/ Odds:
This week’s event will feature a 78-player field with no cut. The field is comprised of the top 60 PGA Tour players from the previous season’s FedEx Cup standings, the top 7 players on the Japan Golf Tour money list, the top 3 players at the Bridgestone Open, and 8 sponsor exemptions.
Previous Winners in the field: Hideki Matsuyama (’21)
Notable Withdraws: Aaron Wise
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses (2019/2021):
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
Picks (Outrights):
Sungjae Im has been trending towards a win for a while now and this event seems like a great spot for him to finally break through. He made his first start of the season last week at TPC Summerlin where he finished 7th. Im has played in the Zozo Championship twice before but only once at this course. In 2019, he finished T3.
While the official yardage of the course isn’t overly long, distance does play a huge factor here. Im’s great tee game combined with elite iron play makes him a great player to target this week.
In terms of course history, there’s no one better. In 2019, he finished 2nd in his debut. Last year, he won in dominating fashion by five strokes. He’s made one official start this season finishing T25 at the Fortinet Championship. Matsuyama also teed it up at Quail Hollow with the International team where he played fairly well.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.17 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Tom Kim will be making his Zozo Championship debut this week fresh off a victory at the Shriners Children’s Open. While his distance off the tee is a slight concern this week his elite level of iron play should make up for it. Based off his current form, he should be able to have success here.
Morikawa has played in the Zozo Championship in all three editions. He struggled in 2020 at Sherwood Country Club but finished T22 and T7 when it was hosted at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. He’ll be making his first official start on Tour this season but did play at the President’s Cup. His ball-striking ability makes him a prime target for this week.
Total Risk on Top 10 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
If there’s one thing this course requires, it’s a great iron game. Mito currently ranks 1st on Tour in SG Approach and top 5 in Proximity 150-175 Yards. Despite not playing this course before, he did play on a very similar course for the Olympics where he finished T3. He also enters in great form off a T4 at the Shriners Children’s Open. Given the strength of the field, he should be able to crack the top 20 this week.
Sam Ryder was a late addition to the field this week with Aaron Wise withdrawing. He’s made three starts this season and has been trending in the right direction. He missed the cut at the Fortinet, finished T45 at the Sanderson Farms, and then finished T28 at the Shriners. Ryder checks most of the boxes this week including ranking well on “short courses”, solid iron play, great course history, and putting well on bentgrass. Given the limited field and no cut, he’s worth a look at these odds.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Zozo Championship: 5.17 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The NHL kicks off in North America with a rematch of the 2021-22 Eastern Conference Finals. It was a tale of two stories last year as the Rangers went undefeated in their three matchups against the Lightning in the regular season but couldn’t handle them in the playoffs losing in 6. The Rangers will look to build off their surprising success last season while the Lightning aim to make it back to their fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ vs New York Rangers
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -110 | -105 | +1.5 (-240) | o5.5 (-105) |
| New York Rangers | -110 | -115 | -1.5 (+200) | u5.5 (-115) |
Preview:
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning salary cap issues forced them into letting Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh walk this offseason. However, they were able to keep a few key pieces this offseason re-signing Mikhail Sergachev, Eric Cernak, and Anthony Cerilli.
Since 2020, Tampa Bay has represented the Eastern Conference in the finals each year. Given their current roster, they look to be poised to make another run this season. The biggest issue for them has been their inability to stay healthy. Brayden Point will return to the lineup after suffering an injury forcing him to miss the majority of the postseason last year. He’ll be playing on their top line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov who’ve had injury issues themselves.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will once again look to anchor this team with his play in net. Over the past three season’s he’s been incredible and the main reason for their success.
| 21-22 Season | ||
| GF/GP | 3.48 | 8th |
| GA/GP | 2.78 | 6th |
| PP% | 23.9% | 8th |
| PK% | 80.6% | 11th |
| SF/GP | 30.9 | 17th |
| SA/GP | 29.8 | 7th |
Projected Lines:
| Steven Stamkos | Brayden Point | Nikita Kucherov |
| Brandon Hagel | Nick Paul | Alex Killorn |
| Cole Koepke | Vladislav Namestnikov | Ross Colton |
| Patrick Maroon | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | Corey Perry |
| Victor Hedman | Cal Foote |
| Mikhail Sergachev | Erik Cernak |
| Hayden Fleury | Philippe Meyers |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy |
| Brian Elliot |
New York Rangers
The Rangers are coming off a somewhat unexpected season. Igor Shesterkin was able to provide some stable goaltending propelling them to the Eastern Conference Finals. They also had Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Chris Kreider all record season highs providing offensive support as well.
This offseason they did lose a few pieces including Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome, Alexander Georgiev, and Andrew Copp. Some of those guys were trade deadline acquisitions so it was unlikely that they would have resigned anyway. They did make a few acquisitions such as Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Carpenter, Jimmy Vesey, and Jaroslav Halak.
Their success this season depends on a few factors but mainly the play of last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin. If their top six can continue to produce, they should be able to make a run at the Eastern Conference Finals again.
| 21-22 Season | ||
| GF/GP | 3.05 | 17th |
| GA/GP | 2.49 | 2nd |
| PP% | 25.2% | 8th |
| PK% | 80.6% | 11th |
| SF/GP | 30.9 | 17th |
| SA/GP | 30.8 | 11th |
Projected Lines:
| Chris Kreider | Mika Zibanejad | Kaapo Kakko |
| Artemi Panarin | Vincent Trocheck | Vitali Kravtsov |
| Alexis Lafreniere | Filip Chytil | Barclay Goodrow |
| Jimmy Vesey | Ryan Carpenter | Ryan Reaves |
| Ryan Lindgren | Adam Fox |
| K’Andre Miller | Jacob Trouba |
| Zac Jones | Braden Schneider |
| Igor Shesterkin |
| Jaroslav Halak |
Pick:
For the first few weeks of the regular season, I’m sticking with half-unit plays. We’ve seen the Lightning struggle out of the gate after making a deep postseason run. The Rangers were able to shut this team down during the regular season last year and are looking for revenge. If we look at the home/away splits from last season, the Rangers were much better at home while Tampa Bay struggled on the road.
Leans:
Player Props to Target:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Giving out a Member Play for Free today. MLB Member Plays are 35-19 last 54. Pick History
San Diego at LA Dodgers 9:37 pm
Clevinger vs Urias
PICK: Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
2 stars
15 of last 16 wins by LA against SD have covered -1.5
LA has covered -1.5 in all 3 starts against Clevinger in Dodger Stadium
LA has covered -1.5 in 7 of last 9 starts by Urias against SD
Urias 4-0, 1.16 ERA last 5 vs SD
SD roster batting .165 career vs Urias
LA roster batting .314, slg .547 vs Clevinger
Clevinger 5.46 ERA on the road this season
Clevinger 0-2, 11.25 ERA career at Dodger Stadium
SD bullpen 5.02 ERA last 10 games
SD batting .208 vs LHP last 10 games
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Bye Weeks: – Lions, Texans, Raiders and Titans
Key Injuries:
Waiver Wire:
Non-Starters trending up for week 6.
Busts:
Nasty Sleeper: RB Eno Benjamin vs the Seahawks will have a huge game.
