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Week 9 CFB Weeknight Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a profitable 5-3 Week 8, we turn the page to Week 9. I’ve locked in 2 plays so far, one for Thursday and one for Friday. I will start rolling out plays for Saturday in the coming days.

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*CFB(1u): Louisiana/Southern Miss UNDER 43.5–Thursday 6:30 PM CT

Louisiana put up 38 points last week against a bottom 5 defense in College Football(Arkansas State), but in their prior 4 games, the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged less than 20 PPG. This is a major step up in competition facing a Southern Miss defense that has allowed just 20 PPG in Sun Belt play and held up well vs Miami and Tulane. I specifically like Southern Miss’s front 7; they’ve recorded 11 sacks in their three Sun Belt games and have proven to be stout against the run by G5 standards. Secondary play is not the strength of this Golden Eagles defense, but I’m not sure how much Louisiana can take advantage. QB Ben Wooldridge has pretty mediocre numbers(62%, 7.2 Y/A) and is still a 1st year starter. He’s played fine each of the past 2 weeks(including on the road at Marshall), but this is assuredly the toughest Front 7 he’ll have gone up against since taking over the starting role.

For as good as Southern Miss’ defense is, the offense is atrocious(less than 17 PPG in Sun Belt play). After losing QB Ty Keyes to a season ending injury early in the season, the Golden Eagles are now relying on QB2 Zach Wilcke to run the offense. Wilcke is throwing for just 6.5 Y/A and, more importantly, has really started to struggle with turnovers, throwing 7 INT’s over USM’s last 3 games. Now, he must face a Louisiana defense that has consistently held opposing QB’s to under 50% completion. The approach from Southern Miss in this game will be to pound the rock with bellcow RB Frank Gore Jr and rely on their defense for a win. Even with that approach, Gore Jr is still under 5 YPC on the season and will have a tough time breaking off chunk runs on this Louisiana defense that is particularly stout at the second level.

A major consideration in this play is pace; Louisiana runs at a below average pace, while Southern Miss runs at one of the slowest paces in CFB. This is a “first to 20 wins” type of game, and any total at or above 41 presents a good opportunity to play the Under. I would lean towards Louisiana winning this game, but I think Southern Miss can extend drives just well enough and force some mistakes from a 1st year starting QB. Under is the best way to play this game.

*CFB(1u): BYU -3 vs East Carolina–Friday 7 PM CT

BYU has endured a rough stretch, losing their last 3 games to Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Liberty. The Liberty loss this past weekend was particularly lopsided, but now, the Cougars return back home to one of the tougher places to play in the country. East Carolina is high-and-mighty after an upset win over UCF(we were on the Pirates), but now, they must travel across the country to play a superior talent roster.

While BYU’s defense has let them down recently(we’ll get to that in a sec), the offense has chugged along fine. QB Jaren Hall holds a TD:INT ratio north of 6:1 and should enjoy a career day against this ECU secondary. ECU has allowed more than 9 Y/A to Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, and Memphis already this year; hell, even Campbell moved the ball well through the air. This is far and away the best WR unit the Pirates will have seen this year, creating an absolute mismatch in the passing game on that side of the ball. BYU RB Chris Brooks has over-performed my expectations this year(6 YPC), and a lot of that can be credited to his stout offensive line. I’ve been impressed with ECU’s ability to get pressure on the QB this year, but this is a major step up in competition up front that I don’t think ECU is ready for.

BYU’s defense has stunk the last 3 weeks. However, some context is needed. Notre Dame really just isolated the nation’s best TE, Michael Mayer, in the passing game, a strategy BYU had no answers for. Arkansas is clearly a superior team with one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the country. Liberty is led by Hugh Freeze, one of the best offensive minds in College Football. There are things to like about ECU’s offense(hell, I backed them the last 2 weeks), but this is BYU’s most favorable matchup in about a month. There’s no doubt that BYU must improve in stopping the run, because ECU RB Keaton Mitchell(6.8 YPC) is truly a game changing back. However, with the amount of explosive plays/points I expect BYU to be able to put up, this game will fall on the arm of QB Holton Ahlers. Ahlers is a 5th year starter that has completed 70% of his passes here in his senior year, but he has clearly benefited from some easy matchups as well as having a dynamic run game. I still feel pretty good about BYU’s secondary; we have to remember, they held Baylor QB Blake Shapen to just 4.9 Y/A earlier this season. ECU’s offense scored just 9 points in their only other tough road game this season @ Tulane; I think the Cougars are plenty capable of stepping up in this spot.

The Over is not a bad look, but given we’ve already seen it steamed up 4 points from open, I’ll hold off. BYU TT OVER is another good look if you aren’t sold on BYU’s defense, but I really think we see the Cougars put it all together here. It can’t be stated how hard of a spot this is for ECU having to travel cross-country and play in altitude on a short week. I think BYU is able to score with ease, take ECU’s offense out of their game plan, and win this game comfortably.

Fantasy Football Week 8

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Bye Weeks:  Chargers & Chiefs

Key Injuries:

  • RB Breece Hall with an ACL injury.
  • RB Chubba Hubbard with an ankle.
  • TE David Njoku with an ankle.
  • RB Mike Boone with an ankle.
  • WR Amon-Ra St. Brown with a concussion.
  • WR Alan Lazard went out with a shoulder injury.
  • WR Nico Collins with a groin injury.
  • WR Mike Williams with an ankle.
  • WR DK Metcalf injured his knee.
  • QB Ryan Tannehill might miss time time with an ankle.

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Michael Carter for the Breece Hall injury.
  • RB Ty Johnson for the Breece Hall injury if desperate.
  • QB Sam Ellinger for the Colts will start the rest of the year.
  • QB Malik Willis for the Tannehill injury.
  • RB D’Onta Foreman for the Hubbard injury.
  • WR Josh Reynolds for the Amon Ra-St Brown injury.
  • WR Sammy Watkins for the Lazard injury.
  • RB Kyren Williams for the Rams.
  • RB Latavius Murray for the Boone Injury.
  • RB Gus Edwards for the Ravens.
  • WR Paris Campbell is finally getting targets for the Colts.
  • QB Bailey Zappe for the Patriots.

Non-Starters trending up for week 8:

  • RB Michael Carter will be huge vs the Patriots.
  • QB Sam Ellinger has a good matchup vs the Washington Commies.
  • RB D’Onta Foreman has a good matchup vs the Falcons.
  • QB for the Titans vs the Texans is a nice matchup.
  • RB Raheem Mostert vs the Lions is a great matchup.
  • WR DJ Moore vs a bad Falcons D.
  • WR Brandon Cooks vs a bad Titans pass D.
  • WR DeVonta Smith vs a bad Pittsburgh defense.
  • WR Adam Thielen vs a bad Cardinals D.
  • WR Gabriel Davis vs Packers

Busts:

  • WR Rashad Bateman vs the Buccaneers D.
  • QB Trevor Lawrence vs the Broncos is ugly too.
  • RB David Montgomery vs the Cowboys is bad.
  • RB Najee Harris vs the Eagles is ugly.
  • RB Josh Jacobs vs the Saints is a tough matchup.
  • RB Darrell Hendersen vs the 49ers is rough.

Nasty Sleeper:  WR Brandon Cooks will have a big game vs the Titans

NBA Prop Play October 25th, 2022

By
Michael N
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This one hurts. Chris Paul was one of my favorite players growing up, but his spiral is apparent. CP3 started the ’21-22 season(Oct-Feb16) averaging 14.9 PPG, on 11.5 attempts good for .487 FG% with a .330 3PT%. Paul had a shooting hand injury his in mid-February and never returned to form(also may have had a hamstring injury, that was a bit unclear but wildly speculated). CP3 was out roughly one calendar month. In his 7 regular season game return, he averaged 13.1 PPG on 9.9 attempts good for .551 FG% with a .176 3PT%(FG went up because he took less 3’s and more inside shots).

He was in line with his career True Shooting % average and  down about 2 full attempts from career in ’21-22. This season in 3 games, (yes it is early but his game seems to have fallen off a cliff) his TS% is .386% and he is down almost 4 attempts a game. Not to mention he got benched.

This season, CP3 is 1/11 from deep. averaging 7.7 ppg. 6,10,7 are his point totals by game. His 10 point game, he had 8 points in regulation and 2 in OT. In regulation he is averaging 7 points good for 291 FG%. Paul’s per36 has him at 8.4 PPG. He just can’t score effectively anymore.

CP3 is still in the upper echelon of passers in the association (10.7 APG). His per36 is second best of his career. Monty Williams might just lean into him setting up passes for Booker at this point who is off to an insanely hot start (almost .100 better this year compared to last in both FG% and TS%). That will cool off mostly because he is shoot .529 % from deep, but I don’t think that changes vs the Warriors.

Warriors have given up the following to opposing starting *point guards this season:
Westbrook – 19 (shot .583% FG and as much hate as Russ gets he is still more athletic and better at getting to the rim than CP3, he just can’t shoot with any range)
Beverley – 3 (20% on 5 attempts)
KCP – 17 (shot 50% on 14 attempts, CP3 won’t get 14 attempts)
Fox – 26 (lowest total of the season on 20 attempts, high tempo game)

Take CP3 Under 13.5 Points -125 1 Unit (BetMGM)
      – I am already seeing this at 12.5 on other books. (Fanduel) You probably won’t get 13.5 again if he goes under again.

Follow me on twitter @FreeCheeseKid

NBA Premiums, 10.25

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Let’s keep cruising!

NBA Premium Picks, 10.25 (14-5, +9.5 units):
Wizards 1Q -2 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Wizards are one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA in the 1Q, they’re at home, they’re trying to run the floor at a faster pace and I don’t think the Pistons will be able to slow them down. They have a better roster and a sneaky good defense so far and I think they’ll gain an early margin in this contest. Detroit likes to claw their way back into games so just going with this 1Q line.
Mavs -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Tough road game for the Mavs but they have 3 days of rest in between their last game and this one and if I was a betting man (oh wait, I am), I’d wager on Zion not playing today after suffering a hip contusion in his last contest. Brandon Ingram will also be out of this one, he’s under concussion protocol, while we witnessed the full potential of Christian Wood and a revamped Mavericks team last Saturday when they smashed the Grizzlies. The Pelicans are a growing team and they’re awesome when fully healthy but this ain’t it. Taking the Mavericks to get a win by margin on the road.
Warriors 1H ML (+115), to win 1.15 units
The Warriors are running the floor at a faster pace this season and they’re scoring an outlandish 67 ppg in the first half, easily #1 in the NBA. The Suns will experience some regression this year IMO and if they would have faced this well-oiled Warriors team in the playoffs last year, I think they would have been cooked real quick. The Warriors just match up well against a small Phoenix lineup that doesn’t have the same athleticism or energy that Golden State can bring on a game to game basis. Warriors get the early lead; avoiding full game.

Podcast 71 – 22 – College Football Week 8 and NFL Week 7 Recap – Fantasy Football Week 8 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Podcast Clean
The OddsBreakers Sports

We have a great but short show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college, UFC and NFL football!  First, Kiev get’s into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from the weekend.  Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots.  Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 9!  Finally, D-Nasy is back and the boys get into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend!  Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag?  Or just want us to break down a game?  Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NHL Preview & Picks – October 24th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. As always, I’m keeping it light for the first few weeks until we can fully analyze these teams.

 

Games to Avoid:

  • Carolina Hurricanes (-150) @ Vancouver Canucks (+130)
    • This game has trap written all over it. The Hurricanes have looked unbelievable to start the season, while the Canucks have looked horrendous. Vancouver’s goaltending has been sub-par and shown no signs of encouragement. For me, this line should be around -200 in Carolina’s favor so I’m completely avoiding it and I suggest you do the same.

 

Pick(s):

  • Edmonton Oilers (-116) – Barstool
    • Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units

The Oilers are coming off a loss against the Blues on Saturday where they were shut out, 2-0. They’ve gotten off to a sub-par start going 2-3 but, haven’t had the easiest of schedules. Edmonton will have their work cut out tonight as they face a 4-0-1 Pittsburgh Penguins squad.

The Penguin’s lone loss was on the road against the Montreal Canadiens in OT. While the Penguins are the more dominant team on paper, I believe this spot favors the Oilers. As a slight home favorite, I like the Oilers to win tonight and move to .500.

  • Dallas Stars (+100) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units

The Senators are expected to start Magnus Hellberg tonight in net. Their other two options Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg are out. Ottawa dropped their first two games of the season but has since gone on a 3 game-winning streak.

Dallas has yet to lose a game in regulation to start the year. Their only loss was against the Maple Leafs in OT on Thursday last week. Scott Wedgewood is expected to get the start in net who is currently 12th in the NHL in GSAx. Given the mismatch in net and overall team form, I’ll take the Stars at plus money tonight.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
    • Tkachuk has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in four of his first five games this season. At home, he has gone over this number in all three matchups. The Stars haven’t been great defensively this year, allowing the 21st most shots on goal against.
  • Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125) – DraftKings
    • McDavid has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in four of his first five games this season. At home, he has gone over this number in four of five matchups. The Penguins haven’t been great defensively this year, allowing the 28th most shots on goal against.
  • Jack Hughes over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – DraftKings
    • Hughes has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in four of his first five games this season. At home, he has gone over this number in all three matchups. The Capitals haven’t been great defensively this year, allowing the 18th most shots on goal against.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NBA Premiums, 10.24

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up everyone! We’re cruising to a 12-4 start in NBA picks! Let’s get more:

Knicks -7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

I’m really impressed by what I’m seeing from the Knicks. They’re a top 7 OFF/EFF team through 2 games but it’s what I see on the screen that’s the difference. Jalen Brunson may be a better fit than I realized and I think he’s a real catalyst for their entire offense. He has a moxie and aggressive style of play, something none of the Knicks’ other offensive stars really have, and that frees up the rest of their offense to become more loose and confident. He also creates more space and takes attention away from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, who have looked good but not great and the Knicks’ offense is still looking better. I don’t think Orlando will be able to stop the Knicks and it’s a nice comfy spot at home for NY.
Celtics -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I just don’t think the Bulls are very good. The Celtics, on the other hand, are clearly one of the NBA’s premiere teams again and they’re immediately at the top of the association in net rating. They’ve been particularly efficient on offense. The Bulls look clumsy and without chemistry as a unit, which is kind of how they finished their season last year. They lost 10 of their last 15 games and just looked like a team without direction. Zach Lavine does something that disrupts their space, too. All Celtics for me.
Nets/Grizzlies over 228 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Grizz and Nets don’t look interested in playing much defense so far; both are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Memphis is allowing a staggering 123.7 ppg alone. The Nets are more finesse while the Grizzlies are more aggressive and downhill. I like both offenses to have an advantage on offense. I have this total at 234, so I’m taking an over.

NFL Week 7 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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Colts vs Titans -2.5 O/U 43.5

I am not going to rush into this one but I do like the Colts here and I have them winning this game outright.  This team feels a lot like last year where they had to take the time to get going with a new quarterback.   There is just too much talent on this team in my opinion to take lightly.  The Colts have quietly moved to 16 in defensive EPA even without their leader in Shaquille Leonard.  The are coming off of a bye which is good for them, but they are still quite injured on the offensive line without any quality receivers.  Tennessee has a massive weaknesses on defense allowing 7.9 passing yards per attempt as well as 4.5 yards per rush.  This puts them at a net negative yards per play at -1.4 while the Colts are close to even.  Now that Pittman is healthy, the Colts have a better passing game, and they also should be getting stud running back Jonathan Taylor from injury.  I think this will be a close game but I also have the Colts winning this by 1.   Try and wait for a three here.

Colts +3 -120 – 2 stars

Atlanta vs Cincinnati -6 O/U 47.5

What have we heard all year?  Atlanta will have regression.  Atlanta will have regression.  Well, lots of burnt up tickets this year from that.  I regret buying back some last week on the 49ers, but I was also quite happy to see the Falcons as another big dog here.  The Bengals are a good team, but certainly not great.   They were out-gained last week against the Saints, and might have lost the game without one huge play to Jamar Chase late in the 4th quarter.  Atlanta is relatively healthy thus far and they have some big targets for Mariota to throw to in Kyle Pitts and Drake London.  Marcus has been great with his legs so far this year and the Bengals have struggled against mobile quarterbacks such as Mitch Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson.  The big thing for me here is that both teams seem to play a lot of close games.   Four of the Bengals 6 games were decided by 4 points or less while the Falcons haven’t lost a game by more than six points themselves.  I think that Atlanta could once again make a little noise here.  The Falcons perform well as a dog and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 games.  Take the dirty birds here to cover.

Falcons +6 – 2 stars

 

Rob V: Sunday NFL Totals play + AFC GAME OF THE YEAR info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Huge Sunday game led by an Executive Level TIER 1 the AFC Game of the Year and an early 6*. We also have a Perfect NBA Game 3 system and League Championship Baseball. Comp play below.

The NFL comp Play is on the UNDER in the NY. Jets at Denver game at 4:05 eastern. This game fits the Powerful totals system below that plays Under for home teams like Denver that are coming off a Monday night game where they were an underdog and are taking on a team that is off a road dog win like the Jets and the total is between 35.5 and 43.5. These games average just 32 points per game since 1989. Denver will be without Wilson and are now a slight home dog. The Jets are 8 of 9 under off a win by 14 or more and 4 of 5 after a spread win. They have a top 10 defense in yards allowed and the 18th ranked offense in total yards gained. Denver has gone under 21 of 28 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4 of the last 5 here. They have the 32nd ranked offense and the #3 defense. Look for a lower scoring grind it out game that stays under. On Sunday 4 big NFL Plays headline with the AFC Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, An early 6* and a Big Total. We have League Championship Historical system as well as a Perfect Game 3 Specific NBA Power system. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the NFL Comp play. Play the Under in the NY at Denver game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

UFC 280 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Volkan Oesdemir vs Nikita Krylov -180

I have both of these guys ranked pretty closely as tier 2 fighers.  Volkan has the edge standing up from a technical perspective while Krylov is the better grappler, and I think that is why Krylov is the favorite here.  I feel that Volkan has shown a lot of maturity against Paul Craig in his last fight being able to back off him on the ground.  I also feel that Krylov’s last win against Gustafson doesn’t really move the needle much for me.  Volkan has the opportunity to move back up in the Ranks and he has had the harder schedule up to this point.  The reason I am betting Volkan Oosdemir is because of his defense.  His Takedown defense is 86% while Krylov’s accuracy is only 35%.  I also like how Volkan beat other ground guys such as Latifi and OSP.  I honestly have this fight more of a pick-em.  When there is a dog of this size in a pick-em fight, you always take the dog.

Volkan +150 – 1.5 stars

Islam Makachev vs Chales Oliveira +150

I have been waiting for this matchup since Khabib Nurmagomedov retired.  If you like Charles this fight, it is certainly because of how he has performed against some of the greatest competition in the light weight class.  But my question is, who is he best grappler that Charles has beaten?  Most Chuck’s best wins were stand up fighters such as Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje.  Islam will have the advantage on the ground who has a better take down average at 3.41 to 2.46, better take down accuracy at 65% to 40%, and better take down defense at 88% to 57%.  Minus Oliveira’s nasty rear naked choke move, we really haven’t had to see Charles do a lot on the mat and that could be a big challenge for him against a guy from Eagle’s MMA.  Islam is the best pound for pound fighter that I have seen who is currently active thus far.  He is a freight train and I compare him to Georgia in football.  Strength of Schedule matters less if you are absolutely throttling your opponents.  Getting Islam under the -200 is a bargain to me, and I do not think that it will happen again for a long time.

Lay it with Islam -175 – 3 stars

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