Heyyyyy how about those Nuggets– NBA is almost here and I gotta say, trudging through the variance of the NFL makes me all-the-more-eager for more NBA action and more success betting on basketball. Here’s another one we like today:
Magic +7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a huge line for a home team in the preseason who already lost to Memphis in their first exhibition game. Obviously the Grizzlies will have an early edge but the young athletes of Orlando can keep it close down the stretch.
We’re on to the Division Series in MLB, and I’ve got 2 plays looking to start us off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-105) vs Padres–8:37 PM CT
Dodgers SP Julio Urias has had another brilliant year, bringing a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into tonight’s start. That WHIP improves to 0.89 at Dodger Stadium, and Urias has had quite a bit of success against this Padres lineup(4 ER in 24 innings this season). The Padres have only been slightly above average vs left-handed pitching since acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the Trade Deadline; in fact, Juan Soto is just 1-for-16 in his career vs Urias. At the end of the day, the Padres have too many weaklings in their order to where I would trust them in this sort of matchup.
Padres SP Mike Clevinger has been ATROCIOUS on the road this season, bringing a 5.46 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 1.5 HR/9 into tonight’s start. In addition, Clevinger is striking out hitters at a career-low rate and struggling with allowing hard contact. Does any of this sound like a formula success facing off against the deepest, most balanced, and best lineup in baseball? 4 separate Dodgers hold a career OPS at or above 1.000 in their past matchups with Clevinger, and this sets up as a great opportunity to start their Postseason off strong.
The Dodgers hold a pretty sizable advantage in the later innings considering this bullpen held the best bullpen WHIP in the league during the regular season.
The Phillies have been fantastic vs lefties away from their home ballpark this season, holding the 3rd best wRC+ in the league in this role since June 1st. Braves SP Max Fried obviously presents a tough challenge given his ability to limit homers at an elite rate, but the Phillies have proven he is not necessarily a dominant arm. In his 4 starts vs the Phillies this year, Fried held an unimpressive 1.26 WHIP. I like the depth of this Phillies order and think they can string together a few runs early in this game.
Phillies SP Ranger Suarez had his fair share of struggles pitching at Citizens Bank Park this year, but he showed much more consistency on the road and had a solid back half of the season. Of all the possible roles an offense can find themselves in, this is the role the Braves have struggled in the most. Since July 1st, the Braves hold a poor 87 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. While they have crushed lefties on the road, there is enough of a sample size(3 months) to where I put stock into that dropoff at home.
In no way, shape, or form would I ever play the Phillies over the full game. This bullpen is clearly the worst of any ‘pen remaining in the postseason. However, I do see quite a bit of value on the road dog early in this game.
Verlander’s had a remarkable season of pitching– he’s first in ERA and WHIP and has over 180 strikeouts on the year. The Seattle Mariners are coming off a shocking 2-game road sweep of the Mets, very impressive, but the Astros are tried and tested and they’ve been here plenty before. Aside from a slumping month of May, where Verlander saw the Mariners twice and allowed 8 runs in 12.2 innings, Verlander has dominated Seattle. In the other 4 games, he only permitted 3 total runs in over 29 innings. This is a great spot, off considerable rest, for the #1 seed in the AL to dominate at home.
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 7! Finally, Kiev gets into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Marshall is just one of those teams that isn’t very good but easily beats up on conference opponents because they have more talent. Good spot at home to do that against the Ragin Cajuns on Wednesday.
Michigan -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I admit I might just hate Penn State but this is another spot where I don’t think the Nittany Lions can hang with a team like Michigan at home. The Wolverines are growing as the year goes on and a late turnover or big defensive play should be the difference. They learned to take teams more seriously after some scares against MD and others.
Alabama -7 (-114), to win 1.5 units
Alabama/Tennessee under 65 (-105), to win 1 unit
Tennessee 1H +4 or more (-110), to win 1 unit
We haven’t seen a complete game from Alabama’s defense yet but this feels like a good spot. All seems fair until the Crimson Tide come to town and suddenly their athletes are bigger, faster, more explosive than yours. I’ll take the Volunteers early because they’re at home behind a raucous crowd and that’ll pay dividends early. But big plays and defensive stops down the stretch in favor of Bama will be the difference, IMO.
Michigan St +7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is the type of game Wisconsin loses.
LSU +2.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units
The LSU Tigers got completely embarrassed by Tennessee last weekend. It wasn’t a good look and it was a scathing indictment of Brian Kelly’s capabilities as a head football coach. I don’t like the guy so I’m a little biased. Either way, LSU should come out with fury while Florida really doesn’t have a mature enough team, just yet, to overcome the emotion LSU should have in this spot. In the swamp or not, we’ve seen this story before. I’ll probably bet more if it goes to 3.
Stanford +16.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Way too many points for Notre Dame, who’s improving but not a titan just yet. Things have gone their way a bit.
Utah -3 (-119), to win 1.5 units
This is a really tough spot for USC. THe Trojans haven’t faced much adversity yet this year, ending up on the winning side of a few games that could have gone either way. Utah is off a very disappointing loss and now their playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. They have nothing to lose in this spot. I like Utah to expose USC’s running game and cover.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the two games for October 11th, 2022 along with several other topics.
Topics:
2022-23 NHL Season Hot Takes
NHL Futures
Hart Trophy
Vezina Trophy
James Norris Trophy
Calder Trophy
NHL Games – October 11th, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers
Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
The Firenze Open in Italy takes center stage and we have a pair of Americans set to do battle in Jenson Brooksby and MacKenzie McDonald. We will be back Brooksby here as has won 4 of the 5 sets between the two in the head to head series and has won both meetings, both of which were this year on hard courts. Brooksby is the more distinguished of the two and has has better results making it to the 3rd round at both Wimbledeon and The U.S. Open, as well as reaching 2 other finals this year. McDonald has had mixed results and lost in the 2nd round of the Japan Open last week. He has not been able to take advantage of the Brooksby serve in their matches and has lost most of the longer rallies. The Match should be close and may go 3 sets. However, we will back Brooksby here to advance. Rob Vinciletti
Monday night Football Game of the Year headlines. CFL Play below
The CFL Matinee Power System Play is on the Ottawa Red Blacks plus the 7 points at 1:00 eastern. Ottawa has covered 10 of 11 here and already Mauled Montreal here this year a few weeks ago. Today Ottawa Qualifies in this perfect 11-0 System that dates to 2004 and plays on road dogs off a road dog loss and a prior home loss and scored more than 10 in their last game and are taking on a Division opponent that scored less than 30 points in their last game. Montreal has failed to cover 5 of 6 on Mondays. Ottawa has covered 4 of 5 on the road. Take the points here. Our Highest rated Monday night Football play is up and has a perfect system and 5 power angles. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the CFL Play take the points with Ottawa. Rob V-
Here are some early looks at NBA lines for opening night, below. I also kinda like a preseason game tonight – but seriously, do NOT bet a lot on preseason NBA action. Good way to lose money if you’re not careful. Let’s get to it:
Nuggets +4.5 tonight (-110), to win 0.5 units
Two field goal underdogs at home to a Suns’ team that seems in disarray, nahh. Pure numbers play on Denver, who has yet to get a preseason win.
Opening Night, October 18
76ers/Celtics over 214 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two top Eastern Conference opponents faceoff in Week 1 and I think Boston is set for some regression after they lost Ime Udoka for the season – Ime brought an intensity and defensive-minded approach to Boston that hardened them and prepared them for more success last year. They’ll miss his gritty style, and the 76ers are still super talented and poised to prove something out the gate. We saw high totals last year in the openers and I expect the same here; defenses need a little time to adjust.
Don’t forget to lock in these UFC 280 bets! Two weeks away!
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units
Under 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw. for the win
CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 04: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the 33-25 win against Jacksonville Jaguars at Paul Brown Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
54% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 3.98% ROI
56% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.5% ROI
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 1% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Chargers vs Browns +2 O/U 48
This should be a pretty good game to watch. The Chargers are laying road chalk against a team that has some talent. Last week, the Browns out-gained the Falcons by 70 yards in that loss and their perception went too low due to this. Believe it or not, Cleveland this year rank 7th in offensive EPA compared to the high flying Chargers ranking 11th. On the defensive side of the ball, the Browns do have a glaring weakness against the run, but the Chargers also have that weakness on offense ranking only 27th in rush EPA and 2.7 yards per rush. The Chargers give up 5.4 yards per rushing attempt, and I think that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will have a field day on Sunday. I also do not like the earlier game for the west coast team. Take the Brownies
Browns +2 – 2 stars
Bengals vs Ravens -3 O/U 48.5
This is a fascinating game because there is a lot of disagreement in the Marketplace on which team is better. I happen to have the opinion that both teams are ranked pretty close, but I have the Bengals slightly better in my power ratings. This handicap has all to do with what the Bengals do well. Baltimore’s key to success is running the ball and the Bengals, last year, were able to slow Lamar and company down the last two matchups allowing less than 116 yards rushing. The Bengals rank 8th in passing yards at 257 per game while Baltimore ranks dead last allowing 315 per game. The Ravens also have a banged up offensive line and linebacking crew. I think that the Bengals cover this and have a chance to win outright
Bengals +3 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Commanders to +8.5 with the Chiefs to -1 – 2 stars
