Sunday card has the 100% AFC North Game of the Year on Sunday night Football and 2 TOP Totals plays from a 32-1 Totals system one is a top 6*, we also have our Signature Executive Level TIER 1 play and any MLB Wild card Game 3 Power Systems,
At 4:25 eastern. The NFL Power System Play is on Arizona plus the points over Philadelphia. We note that since 1990 Non Division home dogs of more than 2 off a road dog win where they scored 23 r more and had 1 or no turnovers are a perfect 11-0 Ats in week 12 or earlier if the total is less than 50. The Eagles are 4-0 but have failed to cover the last after putting up 350+ yards and 1-5 to the spread after allowing less than 150 pass yards. The Eagles are 0-5 to the spread here in Arizona. Last week they rushed for 200+ yards over the Jags. This week they take on the 5th best Rush defense. Arizona has covered 15 of 20 October games and the host team has covered 8 of 11. Look for Arizona to get the cover. A big Sunday is up and has the AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Sunday night. We also have an Executive LEVEL TIER 1, a 6* Total from a 32-1 Totals system and any MLB Wild Card Game 3 Power systems. NFL on Fire this year. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the NFL Comp play. Go with Arizona. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 8-3-0
ATS: 11-0-0
Oct 07, 1990 view Sunday 5 1990 Oilers Fortyniners home 14-0 0-7 7-7 0-10 21-24 5.5 46.0 -3 2.5 -1.0 0.8 -1.8 L W U 0
Sep 22, 1991 view Sunday 4 1991 Falcons Raiders home 7-0 0-7 7-7 7-3 21-17 2.5 36.5 4 6.5 1.5 4.0 -2.5 W W O 0
Oct 15, 1995 view Sunday 7 1995 Colts Fortyniners home 3-0 3-7 9-7 3-3 18-17 10.0 46.0 1 11.0 -11.0 0.0 -11.0 W W U 0
Sep 15, 2002 view Sunday 2 2002 Saints Packers home 7-0 14-10 7-7 7-3 35-20 2.5 45.5 15 17.5 9.5 13.5 -4.0 W W O 0
Nov 23, 2003 view Sunday 12 2003 Texans Patriots home 3-0 0-10 7-0 10-10 20-23 5.5 37.0 -3 2.5 6.0 4.2 1.8 L W O 1
Nov 26, 2006 view Sunday 12 2006 Bills Jaguars home 7-0 10-14 7-0 3-10 27-24 3.0 36.0 3 6.0 15.0 10.5 4.5 W W O 0
Oct 10, 2010 view Sunday 5 2010 Commanders Packers home 0-7 3-3 0-3 10-0 16-13 2.5 45.5 3 5.5 -16.5 -5.5 -11.0 W W U 1
Oct 24, 2010 view Sunday 7 2010 Dolphins Steelers home 6-0 10-17 3-3 3-3 22-23 3.0 41.0 -1 2.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 L W O 0
Nov 28, 2010 view Sunday 12 2010 Bears Eagles home 14-3 7-10 10-0 0-13 31-26 3.0 43.0 5 8.0 14.0 11.0 3.0 W W O 0
Nov 27, 2016 view Sunday 12 2016 Buccaneers Seahawks home 14-0 0-5 0-0 0-0 14-5 5.0 45.5 9 14.0 -26.5 -6.2 -20.2 W W U 0
Sep 29, 2019 view Sunday 4 2019 Saints Cowboys home 0-3 9-0 0-7 3-0 12-10 2.5 46.0 2 4.5 -24.0 -9.8 -14.2 W W U 0
Oct 09, 2022 view Sunday 5 2022 Cardinals Eagles home 5.0 49.5
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 3-1 in the high participant Double-Ups. On a 3 Week winning streak!
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 12-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Tom Brady, QB: $6,000. Going back to the value well again this week at QB. This just seems like the spot the Bucs get going. Brady lit the scoreboard up playing from behind last week. I expect him to do the same at the start this week against the Falcons. This offense just hums different with Mike Evans and the rest of Brady’s weapons are getting healthy with the exception of Cameron Brate. The Falcons are currently 26th in the NFL against the pass.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB: $5,500. Wilson looks to be the lead back with 18 carries last week for the 49ers against the Rams. While Deebo will continue to get his I think Wilson is the look here for a possible grinder of a game against the Panthers. There’s also the possibility he gets a good chunk of carries holding onto a lead late in the game.
Damien Harris, RB: $5,600. With it looking like Bailey Zappe will start again at QB this week against Detroit, expect the Pats to commit to the ground game like they did against the Packers last week. While I think Zappe will throw more with first team snaps and a solid game plan to attack this porous Lions Defense, the offense will flow threw Harris. The Lions are allowing a league worst 5.6 Yards per attempt on the ground.
Cooper Kupp, WR: $9,600. Yes I am paying up for Kupp. Stafford is struggling to stay upright against teams with a solid pass rush which means he needs to get it out quick. Which means Kupp. He had 19 targets and 14 catches against the 49ers last week, and 15 targets and 13 catches against the Bills week 1 when Stafford was under pressure. (Also they were behind). It could be a little tougher with the Cowboys sitting at 5th in pass DVOA, but I don’t care. He’s getting the ball.
Mike Evans, WR: $6,900. If we’re gonna have Brady we should probably have some guys for him to throw to and cash in on some stacks. Evans had 6 catches for 103 yards and 2 scores last week and Evans is a beast in the Red Zone. He is tied for the league lead with 3 Red Zone TDs on 5 Targets despite missing a week.
Christian Kirk, WR: $6,600. Kirk only had 2 catches last week, but was still targeted 9 times. He is clearly Trevor Lawrence’s favorite option garnering 28% of the targets up to this point. I see a bounce back game here against the Texans. With the Jags struggling to rush the ball look for them to go to the air early and often to get up on Houston this week.
Cade Otton, TE: $2,500. It’s possible Kyle Rudolph plays a bigger role this week with Cameron Brate being out, but I think Otton endeared himself to Brady last week after taking over the top spot catching 3 of 4 balls thrown his way.
Tyler Allgeier, Flex: $4,700. It will be a tough test against the Bucs, so I’m not sure how many carries the Falcons will garner if they get behind. That being said Allgeier looked good last week when he was in the game rushing 10 times for 84 yards and catching one pass of 20. While he did split pretty much 50/50 with Caleb Huntley I think Allgeier starts to take the lions share of the work going forward with Patterson hitting the IR. The Falcons will try and keep the Bucs offense off the field by running the ball early.
Cowboys, DST: $2,500. I think the Cowboys are highly under valued here against the Rams. Yes, the Rams are the defending Super Bowl champs and have Cooper Kupp who we are taking, but they also can’t protect Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in Sack Percentage at 9.55%. Two of the teams ahead of them are the Bills and 49ers, and we saw what they did to the Rams. Also the Cowboys have yet to allow a team to score 20 points this season. With this total only sitting at 42 I think it could easily happen again.
Running back Demetric Felton #10 of the UCLA Bruins celebrates with teammates after running for a 75 yard touchdown against the Oregon State Beavers in the second half of a NCAA football game at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019 in Pasadena, California. Oregon State Beavers won 48-31. (Photo by Keith Birmingham, Pasadena Star-News/SCNG)
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Utah vs UCLA +4.5 O/U 65
This is probably the best game in the Pac 12. UCLA took care of Washington as a dog last week and now they are sitting pretty as a dog again to Utah. If you have watched Utah play football over the past 10 years, you would see that the Ute’s are a much better home team than on the road. UCLA has a good coach in Chip Kelly and a very strong offense ranking 10th in success rate. They are a positive 2.4 net yards per play compared to Utah at 1.78. UCLA’s defense could certainly use some work, but they at least were able to shut down Washington last week allowing only 65 yards rushing and forcing two interceptions. Utah just came off of a big game vs Oregon State and they might be looking ahead here to USC. Take the points.
UCLA +4.5 – 2.5 stars
Kansas State vs Iowa State +2 O/U 45
This is one heck of a low total! I don’t know why everyone likes Iowa State so much. The Clones beat a bad Iowa team and it took them all the way until the end of the game. Kansas State is a legit team this year and they already had their hiccup vs a 4-1 Tulane team. They have already beaten two very good Big 12 teams in Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State struggled mightily vs Kansas who is good this year, but not great. Iowa State’s loss vs Baylor isn’t aging to well with Baylor looking bad vs Oklahoma State last weekend. The Wildcats have a massive sack margin of seven, and are very stout in the trenches. Iowa State’s offensive line is very suspect and prone to giving up sacks and yards. The Wildcat’s also have a better red zone success rate both on offense and defense. I think they get the win so lay the small number.
Kansas State -2 – 2 stars
North Carolina vs Miami -4 O/U 65.5
After Miami’s performance against Middle Tennessee State, I do not know how this Miami team is laying chalk to a high powered offense like North Carolina. The Hurricanes haven’t played anyone except for Texas A&M and they lost that game out-right. The big mismatch here for me is against the pass. The Cane’s cannot stop the pass for the life ranking 95th in opponent Pass EPA where North Carolina ranks 8th in Pass EPA on offense. Miami’s strength of schedule only ranks 114th while having a net negative yards per play at -.34. North Carolina’s strength of schedule ranks 84th with a 1.28 net yards per play. The wrong team is favored here. I like the Tarheels to win outright.
Saturday MLB WILD CARD Round 100% Play of the Year + CFB American Athletics Conf. Game of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Side, CFB Top Total and 4 more best bets headline huge card. Comp play below.
The Saturday CFB Comp Play is on the Duke Blue Devils at 4:00 eastern. GA. Tech falls into a nasty system that has failed to cover 10 off times since 1990. We are playing against home dogs in this spread and totals range that are off a road dog win at +8 or more last week if they scored less than 21 in their prior game. The Yellow Jackets pulled a big upset last week. However, they take on a 4-1 Duke team that has covered 11 of 14 on the road vs a losing home team and 20 of 27 after allowing less than 100 rush yards. Tech has failed to cover 7 of 8 in this series and 11 of 12 off a win. They have also failed to cover 30 of 44 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Look for Duke to get the win and cover. On Saturday a Huge Card is up with the MLB Wild Card Round Play of the Year, the CFB American Athletic Conf. Play of the year,an Executive Level TIER 1 and many more powerful best bets. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the Comp play. Go with Duke. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU: 1-11-0
ATS: 1-10-1
Oct 07, 1989Saturday61989NAVYAIRhome7-3514.0-28-14.0LL
Oct 07, 1995Saturday71995NAVYVTCHhome0-1413.0-14-1.0LL
Oct 31, 1998Saturday101998NILTOLhome3-1613.0-130.0LP
Nov 21, 1998Saturday131998MARYNCSThome21-3510.0-14-4.0LL
Oct 30, 1999Saturday101999ILLPNSThome7-2716.0-20-4.0LL
Oct 13, 2001Saturday82001INDILLhome14-353.5-21-17.5LL
Oct 26, 2002Saturday102002KTKYGEOhome24-525.0-28-23.0LL
Oct 18, 2003Saturday92003NOTDUSChome14-458.0-31-23.0LL
Nov 03, 2007 Saturday 10 2007 COLO MIZ home 10-7 0-24 0-17 0-7 10-55 4.0 57.5 -45 -41.0 7.5 -16.8 24.2 L L O 0
Oct 17, 2009 Saturday 7 2009 WMCH CMCH home 3-10 10-17 3-0 7-7 23-34 7.0 57.5 -11 -4.0 -0.5 -2.2 1.8 L L U 0
Nov 05, 2016 Saturday 10 2016 BCOL LOU home 0-21 0-17 7-14 0-0 7-52 25.5 53.5 -45 -19.5 5.5 -7.0 12.5 L L O 0
Oct 13, 2018 Saturday 7 2018 IWST WVA home 13-7 7-7 0-0 10-0 30-14 4.5 54.5 16 20.5 -10.5 5.0 -15.5 W W U 0
Oct 08, 2022 Saturday 6 2022 GTCH DUKE home 3.5 55.0
After a 4-2 week last week we are back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are now 22-17 (+$1095, +1.3% CLV) in College Football and 6 plays locked in and 3 more games on the radar for the weekend! Best of luck if you tail!
Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!
The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Louisiana for a noon eastern kickoff against the LSU Tigers in Death Valley. Rocky top is off a bye after beating Florida 8-33 the week before and enter with a perfect 4-0 record while the Tigers come in with a 4-1 record after winning at Auburn last week 21-17. The key matchup in this game will be the potent Tennessee offense against the LSU defense. The Tigers weakness is throwing the football but they will be going up against Tennessee’s weakness on defense as they rank 128th while giving up 309.25 passing yards per game. Both teams look to run the ball first but could have some trouble as both defenses are stout against the run. This game will come down to red zone scoring and more specifically red zone touchdowns. Tennessee has scored 19 RZ TDs (9th in nation) and LSU has only given up 4 on D (6th). While LSU’s offense is not made up of many big plays, they will have the opportunity to compile yardage on the Vols defense that ranks 94th in the nation, allowing 407 yards per game. Overall, these teams are very evenly matched but in what should be a tight game, I would rather have Brian Kelly on my sideline than Josh Heupel. However, this is more of a situational play than anything. LSU at home is historically a tough place to play and Tennessee could easily be looking ahead to their matchup at home next week against Nick Saban and the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide. Getting a field goal here is too good to pass up and we played it earlier in the week for 2% of our bankroll. Take LSU +3
Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!
Over the course of the long 162-game regular season, it is possible to identify betting opportunities for certain clubs, based on the success of the starting pitchers, bullpen strategy and offensive production in certain situations. All of those factors can change in the postseason as teams usually shift to four-starter pitching rotations, which in turn impacts the dynamics of a club’s bullpen.
Momentum plays a huge role in how teams fare during the postseason. Baseball players are streaky, and sometimes the difference between winning and losing a series is which team is hotter. Certain top competitors and higher seeds might take their foot off the gas down the stretch. With a guaranteed playoff spot and home-field advantage secured, there’s little reason to exert 100% effort. Meanwhile, certain lower seeds are forced to scratch, claw, and fight their way into the playoffs. However, you also have to factor in that the higher seed has their guys on normal rest which could be an edge.
The significance of the starting pitching matchup, along with the strength of both bullpens cannot be overstated. A team that has a shaky bullpen is a major concern. It’s crucial to dive deeper into the pitching matchup, especially during the postseason. As I mentioned, many teams will cut a starting pitching rotation by one pitcher, many of its best arms will see more playing time. That means that certain players will see more wear and tear down the stretch of the postseason. Always check when the last time each starting pitcher took the mound.
When handicapping a postseason matchup, check to see if each team faced off in the regular season. While things change on a daily basis in the MLB, these past performances can provide a glimpse into the future. Also, having guys with postseason experience on the team who know how to handle themselves during this time can provide a big edge. Teams with postseason veterans on the team can give that squad better leadership.
During the playoffs, there are also certain scenarios to look for. Team A is up 3-1 in the 7-game series and saves their best arms in game 5 to set up the next 2 games of the series. Team A won the night before and threw their best arms out of the pen while Team B saved their best arms for the next game. Coaches don’t like to lose but great coaches know they have to mail in certain games to put them in better position for the next game(s). This is very important when playing totals. Watch coaches press conferences and read up on that team’s beat writers on Twitter to get a better idea of the game plan for the next game.
Bettors must also look for dramatic betting line movement on MLB postseason games. Playoff games see more action from the public and that can lead to wide and rapid swings in game betting lines. This might involve fading the public, following reverse line movement, and simply outworking other gamblers. There are far fewer games. The bookie has all his attention on just a few games. That results in tighter lines. Just as the teams themselves up the ante during this time of year, we need to also elevate the level of our handicapping. If there is not a desirable spot, we need to leave it alone.
The NHL is back!! The first game of the season takes place on October 7th in Prague, Czech Republic as part of the NHL Global Series. The Sharks and Predators will face off on back-to-back nights. While it isn’t the most glamorous matchup, it is regular-season hockey. Nashville will look to make the playoffs for the 9th consecutive season while the Sharks well….. we really don’t know what direction they’re heading.
These first few articles won’t be as long as we’re working with limited information. Also, to start the season I will be decreasing my unit size and I recommend you do the same as there’s more variance in October.
San Jose Sharks vs Nashville Predators
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
TV Coverage: ESPN+
San Jose Sharks: 0-0-0, — Pacific (0-0-0 Away)
Nashville Predators: 0-0-0, — Central (0-0-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
San Jose Sharks
+155
+165
+1.5 (-145)
o6.0 (-105)
Nashville Predators
-180
-195
-1.5 (+125)
u6.0 (-115)
Preview:
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks are one of the more interesting teams in the NHL and it’s not because of their on-ice talent. During the off-season, they made a bunch of leadership changes including a new GM and Head Coach. In terms of players, they traded Brent Burns to the Carolina Hurricanes. Burns had been with the organization since the 2011-12 season but was never able to recapture the great season he had in 2010-11. They did bring in a few new players such as Nico Sturm, Luke Kunin, Oskar Lindblom, Matt Benning, and Steven Lorentz who was part of the Brent Burns trade.
Last season, the Sharks struggled in all areas of the ice. Their offense wasn’t great outside of Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl who had solid seasons. On defense, they lacked depth, and even more so this season. In net, James Reimer, who has been rumored to be traded soon, was average with a +0.1 GSAx.
Their outlook for this season remains similar to last year. They have a few terrible contracts on the books that are preventing them to make any major moves. Their current season point total is set at 75.5 (-115/-115) which would be a slight decrease from last season when they had 77 points. San Jose finished 6th in the Pacific last year and I think they finish below that this year given the improvements other teams in the division made.
21-22 Season
GF/GP
2.57
30th
GA/GP
3.18
21st
PP%
19.0%
22nd
PK%
85.2%
2nd
SF/GP
29.3
26th
SA/GP
32.0
18th
Projected Lines:
Timo Meier
Tomas Hertl
Luke Kunin
Oskar Lindblom
Logan Couture
Kevin Lebanc
Noah Gregor
Nick Bonino
Matthew Nieto
Steven Lorentz
Nico Strum
Jonah Gadjovich
Scott Harrington
Erik Karlsson
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Mario Ferraro
Radim Simek
Matt Benning
James Reimer
Kappo Kahkonen
Nashville Predators
The Predators have been good but not great for the last eight seasons. Since 2018, they have yet to make it past the first round. While they’ve made the playoffs continuously they just don’t seem to have the roster that can compete for a Stanley Cup. Nashville made a few off-season moves adding Nino Niederreiter and Ryan McDonagh. They also were able to secure Filip Forsberg for the next 8 years.
Last year, Nashville finished 5th in the Central Division with 98 points. In the first round, they were without their backbone Juuse Saros and they fell apart getting swept by Colorado. Their main weakness last season was their defense which they improved with the addition of McDonagh. Nashville now has a solid top-4 that can hopefully provide some stability for this team.
Their current team total is set at 96.5 is which pretty much the number of points they finished with last season. While they didn’t make a ton of moves, they did get better with the moves they made. To be clear, this team also did not need to make a ton of moves either. While they do have a relatively tough division, I think we see this team exceed their point total from last year.
21-22 Season
GF/GP
3.20
13th
GA/GP
3.05
17th
PP%
24.4%
6th
PK%
79.2%
18th
SF/GP
29.7
24th
SA/GP
32.3
20th
Projected Lines:
Filip Forsberg
Mikael Granlund
Matt Duchene
Nino Niederreiter
Ryan Johansen
Kiefer Sherwood
Yakov Trenin
Colton Sissons
Tanner Jeannot
Cole Smith
Cody Glass
Eeli Tolvanen
Roman Kosi
Alexandre Carrier
Ryan McDonagh
Mattias Ekholm
Jeremy Lauzon
Dante Fabbro
Juuse Saros
Kevin Lankinen
Pick:
Nashville Predators 60 Minute Line (-115) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 0.50 Units
The Nashville Predators are a better team than the San Jose Sharks in all areas. They should be able to win this game in regulation against a far inferior opponent. These two teams faced off three times last year with Nashville winning each matchup. They outscored the Sharks 12-1 in those three games. Given the off-season additions for each team, Nashville is the only side to have gotten better.
If you’re looking for a Shots on Goal Prop with playable odds, I would target Matt Duchene over 2.5 SOG (-130) on DraftKings. He went over this number in two of their three matchups last season. Last year, he hit this line at a 62% rate. The Sharks also allowed the 26th most shots on goal to right wingers last season as well.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I stood on an island last week when I faded LSU on the road against Auburn, and a lot of my reasoning was confirmed. LSU’s offensive line is not just subpar; that unit is a straight up liability. Their RB room is simply not very talented, and we saw their secondary get decimated in what should’ve been a pretty easy matchup. Now, you have to face one of the best offenses in the country that has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker is phenomenal in every sense of the word; in addition to throwing for over 10 Y/A on the young season and being a threat with his legs, Hooker has a beatiful 34:3 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Vol. Tennessee can create explosive plays in a multitude of ways, and I think over time, they’ll simply outmatch this LSU defense.
LSU QB Jayden Daniels has been able to mask a lot of the Tigers’ issues with his ability as a runner, but he showed major flaws last week as a passer. In fact, Daniels has thrown for less than 6 Y/A in his 3 games vs Power 5 competition this season. He does not enter this game at 100% health after having to leave last week’s game which could hurt his abilities as a runner. I don’t always love Tennessee’s manically fast tempo because I think it extends games unnecessarily, but I actually think that works in their favor. Ultimately, I like the Vols to pull away and win this game by at least 7.
*CFB(1u): Washington State +12.5 @ USC–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
All offseason, the only thing this USC team heard was that Utah was their only real threat in the Pac12 race. Not only is that not true(the Trojans might not even be the best team in their own city), but that has the potential to make this an extreme “look ahead” spot. USC is an overrated commodity that will eventually expose themselves as their season plays out, and this could very well be their first crack.
Washington State is no slouch, plain and simple. The Cougars already have an outright road win at Wisconsin this year and played a clearly superior Oregon team down to the wire. Coming off a dominant win against Cal, it is clear that Washington State’s defense is far superior to USC’s. Specifically, the Cougars have been quite stout in their Front 7. USC has dominated inferior defenses like Stanford and Arizona State, but in their one true test on the road against Oregon State(who’s still not great defensively), that offense sputtered. RB Travis Dye is going to get his, but Caleb Williams has proven to be quite inconsistent early in his college career.
What ultimately gets me on this play is my utter disgust of USC’s defense. They’ve forced turnovers at an elite rate this year, but that’s about all you can really compliment them on. While they can take advantage of poor OL units, their back 7 is extremely vulnerable. I worry less about USC’s pass rush having an impact on this game given Washington State sticks to Air Raid tendencies and likes to get the ball out quick. Wazzu QB Cameron Ward has translated well to the P5 level after dominating the FCS ranks, and this is a matchup I expect him to take advantage of USC’s lack of discipline defensively.
*CFB(1u): BYU/Notre Dame UNDER 51–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
*CFB(1u): BYU +3.5 vs Notre Dame–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
This is obviously a neutral-site game being played in Las Vegas. BYU played in LV last year and is one of the oldest teams in the country, while Notre Dame has to make the cross-country trip led by their unproven 1st year HC. While the matchup sets up well for BYU as well, this is an element to the handicap I think is worth putting stock into.
BYU QB Jaren Hall is clearly the superior QB in this matchup(8.5 Y/A over the last 2 seasons). Additionally, Hall has far more playmakers to work with on the outside than Drew Pyne. While we did see Notre Dame get their offense going in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago(I was on the Irish that game), I think that has far more to say about the Tar Heels’ defensive issues and ND’s massive advantage in the trenches in that particular matchup. This is still only Drew Pyne’s 3rd career start; outside of TE Michael Mayer, I think the weapons he has at his disposal are incredibly mediocre.
I respect Notre Dame’s acumen in the trenches on both sides of the ball and think it will keep this a neck-and-neck game. Ultimately, I think each team will struggle to establish much of a run game, but BYU is more seasoned as far as creating explosive plays through the air. If you’re going to give me 3.5 points with the Cougars in this spot, I’ll take it all day. Still, I think this game is played in the low-20’s.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Boston College UNDER 48.5–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
On paper, this is not a good scheduling spot for Clemson. They just won a huge game against NC State but also have a tough road matchup in Tallahassee against the Noles next weekend. Not only that, but Boston College has hung neck-and-neck with Clemson each of the past 2 seasons, with the Golden Eagles holding Clemson to just 19 points in Death Valley last year. Ultimately, I expect this to be a very low-possession game. Boston College is well below average in the pace department despite playing from behind most of the season, and Clemson will be trying to get out of Chestnut Hill in quick order.
I know Boston College broke out of their funk with a win against Louisville last week, but they do not match up well with Clemson’s defense. Specifically, Boston College’s offensive line has been a train wreck this season; if you’re struggling to beat Rutgers and Virginia Tech up front, I have no confidence that they’ll step up against a borderline elite Clemson front 4. As a result of their issues up front, they’ve regressed in virtually every offensive department this year.
Call me crazy, but I think Boston College can get stops here. While they are unlikely to get much pressure on DJ Uiagalelei, I like BC at the second and third levels defensively. Clemson RB Will Shipley has run for less than 5 YPC against Power 5 competition, and even with Uiagaleilei’s improvements, he is still far from a world beater with his arm.
I envision a quick, 27-10 type of game that stays under the total.
We have a great show for you today! Las Vegas Cris comes back on to break down a HUGE NFL week 5 slate of games! Kiev is on Vacation in Playa Del Carmen but hasn’t missed a beat when it comes to the huge weekend in sports! First, the guys talk a little bit about how the season is going. Next, Cris and Kiev @OBKiev get into the full NFL slate of games with some leans and FREE PLAYS for NFL week 5! After that, Kiev gives out some college football plays for week 6! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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