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College Football Week 8 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Bowling Green vs Central Michigan -6.5 O/U 51

It’s time for some maction, even though the games are still on Saturdays and not on Tuesdays until week 10.  Bowling Green isn’t the pathetic team that they were over the past 10 years or so.  They have been upgraded to just bad.   In saying that, so is Central Michigan.  Both teams are 74th or worse in defensive success rate as well as EPA.  Bowling Green is a bad -1.3 net yards per play while Central Michigan is about even hence the -6.5 point spread.  If I could say anything nice about each team, they both average a little over 25 points per game counting some difficult non-conference games.   On the other side of the coin, Bowling green gives up 37 points per game while the Chippewas give up over 29.  I like the over in this game.  Both teams play at a higher pace with Central ranking 21st and Bowling Green ranking 37th.  Weather looks good as well.

Over 51 – 2.5 stars

Texas vs Oklahoma State +6.5 O/U 62

What have we learned about Texas.   Well they seem pretty resilient for one.  They should have beaten Alabama and they creamed Oklahoma without a quarterback.  The question is, what has Texas done on the road?   Wait, you mean to tell me they have had only one road game?  And they lost!?  This spread bugs the heck out of me.   Oklahoma State hasn’t quite played the schedule that Texas has played, but they at last went on the road last and choked the game to overtime against the TCU.  Oklahoma State also beat Big 12 champion Baylor a few weeks back.  I must admit, I was on TCU last week, but my mistake was assuming that just because the Pokes do not rank high in the advanced metrics, doesn’t mean that they deserve to be a big dog here at home.  Both of these teams are still in the hunt here for the Big 12 championship, and Oklahoma State will be able to get after Quinn Ewers ranking 21st in Sack margin and 11h in defensive adjusted line yards.  No real power rating has Texas more than a 3 point road favorite on the road here.  I assume that some think that Sanders won’t be playing, but I do not understand why that is when he finished the game just fine last week.  This handicap is more about Texas being on the road.  I feel that they underperform in these situations.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Oklahoma State +6.5 – 3 stars

 

NBA Premiums, 10.22 and Full Saturday List

By
Chris R. Farley
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Morning, people!

We’ve started off WHITE HOT in the NBA and I’m here for it. Appreciate all the kind messages. It won’t continue at this rate but you already know that. We’ll ride it for as long as we can, though!

Sunday Disclaimer: If you don’t read any other notes in this email, read this. Sundays are WEIRD in the NBA, and they’re especially weird during the NFL season. Last season I swear the most zany shit happened over and over again on the ol’ Sabbath. So, ergo, don’t expect many plays, if any, from me on Sundays in the NBA. I can give my leans and they’ll be sharp as hell, but you might as well wager on the insane happening because, it does. And it kind of makes sense. Sundays in America = rest. It’s a football day. Maybe NBA players really don’t want to be out there, idk. Anywho, don’t complain if/when I don’t release plays. We’ll be better off.
Onto the picks and my full card is below!
NBA Premiums, 10.22 (11-3, +8.25 units):
 
Rockets/Bucks over 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a rough travel spot for Houston and Milwaukee will probably smash them but I like the over a little more here. The Rockets can score and they like to go fast. Milwaukee historically runs faster at home and it’s a great opportunity for their offense to get in-rhythm, a scrimmage if you will, with little pressure. Neither team will want to play much defense. Take the over.
 
Thunder +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m higher on the Thunder than most people. Giddy, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dort are a formidable trio and they’ll surprise teams a lot this year. The Nuggets are fresh off a big road victory that they wanted after a bad opening loss. Really tough travel spot, even though they’re at home, and Denver has always been an up and down team. Idk if that’s a Jokic thing– other players just don’t go as hard b/c they have him and kinda let down– or if it’s a coaching thing. The Nuggets just aren’t consistent yet and I think OKC is a live dog today. Gotta take them with the points.
CFB Week 7 Picks ( 30-33-7, -9.46 units):

CFB Season is winding down in my brain since, firstly, we haven’t seen much success and I’,m wondering if I ever should have handicapped it in the first place. Just too much going on with the NFL and now with the NBA. I’ll probably have a few plays I like every week but I’m going light from now on.
UCLA +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UCLA/Oregon under 70.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two physical defenses coming off a bye and this is a huge Pac-12 game. Like the under, this total is a little too high, and UCLA can score and has a tough defense to keep Oregon in line. Yes, even in Eugene.
Notre Dame -27 (-110), to win 1 unit
One of CFB’s worst teams come to South Bend and after a piss-poor loss to Stanford, ifg the Irish can’t get up and look elite here, they have more issues than Marcus Freeman.
 
Alabama -21 (-110), to win 2 units
Response spot for Alabama at home, and now every game needs a few more exclamation points for the Crimson Tide. They roll.
 
Purdue ML (+115), to win 0.57 units
Wisconsin is soft, end of explanation.
Army -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UL Monroe literally can’t stop anyone and Army is coming off 3 wins and I think they get UP for this one against a very beatable foe with an offense that can be stymied.
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):


Main Event
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units

Over 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
 
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw. for the win

NFL Week 7 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of 10/19/22

Sharp Money On:

  • Jets +3.5 to +1 at the Broncos – 88% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Texans +8 to +7 at the Raiders – 36% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Seahawks +8 to +6 at the Chargers – 87% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • Miami -6 to -7 hosting the Steelers – 55% tickets and 74% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Saints vs Cardinals under 46 to 44 – 46% tickets and 80% of the money.
  • Packers vs Commanders under 43.5 to 41.5 – 69% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Falcons vs Bengals over 44.5 to 47.5 – 83% tickets and 98% of the money.

College Football Week 8 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of 10/19/22

Sharp Money On:

  • Georgia State +10.5 to +9.5 at Appalachian State – 57% ticket and 84% of the money.
  • Rutgers -1 to -3 hosting Indiana – 66% tickets and 91% of the money.
  • Louisiana Monroe +9 to +6.5 at Army – 63% tickets and 89% of the money.
  • Texas tech -4 to -7 hosting West Virginia – 39% tickets and 80% of the money.
  • Kansas State +5 to + 3.5 at TCU – 53% tickets and 84% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Vanderbilt vs Missouri under 56.5 to 52.5 – 82% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • Minnesota vs Penn State under 48.5 to 44.5 – 38% tickets and 96% of the money.
  • Kansas State vs TCU under 63.5 to 54 – 58% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Rice vs LA Tech under 59 to 57.5 – 19% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • West Virginia vs Texas Tech under 72 to 65.5 – 47% tickets and 66% of the money.

NFL DFS Week 7 – For Never Was A Story Of More Woe Than This Of Aaron And His Romeo

By
Shawn Knoche
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Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.

Our record this season is now 4-2 in the high participant Double-Ups. I thought we had a big winner coming our way after the early games last week, but we ended up just barely holding on in our double-up and missed out on tournament $.

I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 11-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.

Joe Burrow, QB: $6,900. Yup going back to the well again. For only $1,000 more than the likes of Derek Carr, Burrow is a value even being near the top of the QB pay scale. Burrow got back on track against the Saints simply due to better protection. Now he’ll look to continue momentum against a Falcons defense that only has 8 sacks so far on the year. Since the opener against Pittsburgh Burrow has produced 14 total Touchdowns to only 1 turnover. They dirty birds are also 31st in the NFL allowing over 280 passing yards per game. I think the Bengals air it out and get up big early against this Falcons D on Sunday and I expect them to roll.

Kenneth Walker III, RB: $5,800. In two games as the starter for the Seahawks Walker has scored 14.8 and 19 points in DFS so far and has found the end zone in both contests. He is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and gets the Chargers Sunday who are allowing over 125 yards per game on the ground. The Bolts committed to stopping the run on Monday night, but Wilson and the Broncos had no answers through the air. If they try and stuff the run vs Seattle Lockett and Metcalf should make them pay. I think Walker is the key cog in this offense again however and is a great value at this price.

Kenyan Drake, RB: $5,100. The Ravens backfield is a mystery. Dobbins is out. Justice Hill is likely still out. Mike Davis has been ineffective in limited action. Gus Edwards has to be activated from IR for Sunday or he has to sit out the rest of the season. I think Drake gets most of the action even if Edwards is active. Drake was highly effective after Dobbins exit last week going for 119 yards and a TD on only 10 carries. The Browns have been surprisingly poor against the run, but that was with injuries on the D-Line to Clowney and Garrett for a few games. Drake looks like another nice value to load up on some pass catchers.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR: $8,200. Yup Back to back for Chase as well. The Falcons CBs, AJ Terrell and Isaiah Oliver have gotten taken to school by Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp already this year allowing over 75 yards receiving to all of them. Oh and 114 Yards to Jarvis Landry. There’s no reason to believe they contain Chase on Sunday.

Romeo Doubs, WR: $5,000. Parting is such sweet sorrow for Aaron Rodgers who lost his old reliable in Randall Cobb. He’s out several weeks due to an ankle injury. Someone has to step up for the Packers and I think Doubs is the ball catcher Rodgers trusts most of his remaining options. He has averaged 7.5 targets per game in his last 4 contests while grabbing 20 balls for 170 yards and 2 scores. The Commanders left plenty of receivers running open for the Bears last week, and if Justin Fields didn’t suck the Bears could have put up some passing stats. The Packers are in a get right game in a get right spot after getting swept by the NYC football teams and Rodgers needs to get this passing game figured out. If they get going he may just bite his thumb at the naysayers.

Ceedee Lamb, WR: $6,800. Lamb is averaging ten targets per game and is relishing his new role this year as the Cowboys #1 Option. Whether Dak plays or not, I like the Cowboys to score some points against the sieve of a group masquerading as an NFL defense in Detroit. They are the worst overall defense in the league allowing 428 yards per game and are 26th against the pass. Coming off the bye week I have faith in the Lions offense keeping this game close so the Cowboys shouldn’t turn to simply rushing the ball too early.

Gerald Everett, TE: $4,000. The Seahawks are awful against opposing Tight Ends. Top tight ends are averaging 8 targets, 5 catches, 88 yards and .67 Touchdowns per game. Enter Everett who has 3 solid showings in the 6 contests so far. He has 22 catches for 242 Yards and 2 scores on the year. I think he gets at least 5 grabs and hopefully a score in this one.

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR: $5,600. JSS finally had a breakout game for the Chiefs against the Bills last week. I normally wouldn’t play against the SF pass defense, but the 49ers defense is still not at full strength. Without their full pass rush being healthy this isn’t the same team that’s allowing only 5.5 Yards per passing attempt. Plus Patrick Mahomes isn’t like going up against Baker Mayfield. I’m gonna see if JSS and Mahomes put together a connection.

DST, Jets: $2,600. The Broncos offense is a mess. Nathaniel Hackett might not survive one year as a head coach. He’s starting to lose the team and the drama with Melvin Gordon didn’t help. Are you ready for this next stat? The Jets are 9th in total defense. Yup 9th. They are also tied for 5th with 1.7 Turnovers per game. With Russell Wilson being hobbled by a hamstring even if he plays, I highly doubt his effectiveness level will be high in this one.

 

 

Free CFB Pick with Analysis for Friday, October 21st

By
Nick Hub
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We have started the week on a positive note after cashing our first play last night (VA/GT under) and are now 13-4 in our last 17 plays and 35-21 63% (+$8,065) YTD in College Football and look to have another big weekend!  See below for tonight’s play! Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The UAB Blazers head to Western Kentucky to take on the Hilltoppers on tonight. UAB is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS while the Hilltoppers are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS. These offenses play with contrasting styles as the Blazers look to run the ball 65% of their plays (8th most in nation) while playing at a slower tempo and Western Kentucky passes the ball on 59% of their plays (5th most) and ranks 23rd in tempo. Both teams rank in the 130s in SOS but it will be more challenging for the Hilltoppers to move the ball on this UAB defense who ranks in the top 5 nationally, top 3 in passing defense and only give up 17 points per game. That will be the big matchup in this game as Western Kentucky averages 40 PPG, ranks 28th in passing and owns a 21st best offensive passing success rate this season. However, the game will come down to if the Hilltoppers can limit the Blazers run game enough to win this game. The big weakness on defense for Western Kentucky is their tackling as they rank 95th in the nation in that stat. This should be a good game tonight but I am looking for UAB to make plays on the defensive side and run through the Hilltoppers to win this one outright.

Take UAB ML +105

Pels/Hornets Total

By
Chris R. Farley
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NO/CHA over 231.5 (-110), 1 unit
NO/CHA over 226.5 (-110), 1 unit

Somehow their total moved down to 226.5, wtf, so I’m putting another unit on it. Sometimes we get burned in these situations but I think it ends around 237.

NBA Premiums, 10.21

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Adding a few more, in red.

NBA Premiums, 10.21 (7-2, +4.75 units overall):
Bulls ML (+105), to win 1.05 units
I think the wrong team is favored here. The Wizards aren’t all that bad but they got their first win against a team that’s likely in the Wembanyama sweepstakes and won’t have much interest or capability to win games this year in Indiana. If you look at the box score, nothing jumps out as overly impressive in the Wiz’s performance. The Bulls were impressive, on the other hand. They responded, on the road, in a comeback victory against the Heat. Their starters were responsible for 7 steals between the five of them, playing feisty defense and showing discipline in their assignments. The Bulls won 8 out of their last 10 and their last three in a row against Washington- take Chicago.
 
Pelicans/Hornets over 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hornets and Pelicans were both top 3 in offensive efficiency and while I don’t expect much from the Nets’ defense, so that was hardly surprising for New Orleans, that’s a good sign for the Hornets. Even in a down year I’d expect the Spurs to be feisty in game one– didn’t happen. Charlotte has had more time without LaMelo Ball and scary Terry can run the offense well. They run at a fast pace and I think they’ll want to do that even more in their first game at home. I also like the matchup of both offenses; small quick guards on Charlotte vs. big rangy players on New Orleans– both should have offensive advantages. The Pelicans’ look like they could be a juggernaut this season and while I lean their way tomorrow night, I can’t take them at -6. That’s too much and too soon. I’ll go with the over.
Nets -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I really like the Raptors and think they’ll be a problem for a lot of teams this season in the right spots, but the Nets are still superiorly talented and this is a great response spot for the Nets after that embarrassing opening loss. The Raptors gave it all they had in a comeback win and they’re no slouches, but Durant and Kyrie take over in this one.
Grizzlies -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is lined like the Rockets can put up a fight here and I just don’t see it. Especially after nearly blowing their opener against the Knicks, this is a nice smash spot for a Memphis team that’s far more physical and far more talented. Their 2nd unit should feast on Houston, too. Both of these teams have games tomorrow, too, which isn’t ideal, but at least Memphis can stay local in Texas (they face Dallas Saturday. The Rockets gotta head to Milwaukee and odds are we’ll bet against them there, too. Comeback blowout opportunity for Memphis.

Week 8 CFB Plays(Part 2)

By
Michael Fordham
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I locked in 4 plays for this Week 8 slate earlier today and have since added 2 more. I am likely not finished, so if you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1u): Indiana/Rutgers UNDER 48–Saturday 11 AM CT

Rutgers HC Greg Schiano is not afraid to make games ugly, and the makeup of his team sets up perfectly to be able to do so. While Rutgers might have a bottom 10 offense in all of the country, their defense is quite impressive at all 3 levels. Indiana’s offense has somehow been worse than Rutgers’, racking up just 4 yards/play this season; for reference, that’s less than teams like Iowa, Colorado, and Temple. QB Connor Bazelak has nowhere near the amount of weapons he did at Missouri, and it shows in his regression this season(55%, 5.6 Y/A). The Hoosiers have a very mediocre run game and are not good along their OL, something that bodes horribly facing a physical and effective Rutgers front 4.

I’m a bit higher on this Indiana defense than most and think they’ve fallen victim to a tough early season schedule, already having had to face off against Cincinnati, Michigan and Maryland. To say this is a step down in competition would be the understatement of the century. We aren’t exactly sure who will be leading this Rutgers offense coming out of the BYE Week, and I don’t particularly think it matters given what we’ve seen from each of the 3 options. Expect little threat in the vertical passing game and a commitment to the ground game from Schiano. Rutgers’ OL is still a work in progress and, as such, the results will continue to be underwhelming playing in this conference.

Whatever Indiana gains by running a lot of plays, they give right back with their inability to create explosive plays. I expect Rutgers’ defense to set the tone, for Greg Schiano to slow this game down considerably, and for this game to stay Under the total. 

*CFB(1u): Oregon State -23.5 vs Colorado–Saturday 7 PM CT

Colorado finally got off the schneid with an upset win over Cal last week. The Buffs are back, right!? Wrong. Colorado is a terrible, terrible football team that has little to do hang their hat on. Prior to last week, they had lost their previous 5 games by an average of 30 PPG. We constantly see teams “get up” for their new interim HC only to regress back to who they actually are the following week.

Playing in Corvallis, Oregon at night against this Beavers squad is no easy test. The Beavers are a physical team that is notorious for their ground game, and both QB’s(Chance Nolan and Ben Gulbranson) have proven plenty capable to strike in the play-action game after the run is established. The Buffs defense was bailed out by Cal inexplicably electing to throw the ball 52 times last week, but run-first teams(Air Force and Minnesota specifically) have crushed the Buffs defense this year.

Colorado’s RB1 was carted off the field with an injury last week and is unlikely to return just a week later. Their new starting QB, Owen McCown, is also not 100% entering this matchup. McCown is still only throwing for 6 Y/A, but if he is unable to go, that leaves the offense in the hands of JT Shrout(sub-50% completion throughout his career). Oregon State’s defense allowed just 10 points to Washington State last week and are certainly physical enough at the point of the attack to mop the floor with this Colorado OL. Their back 7 isn’t flawless, but they’ve stepped up quite well against inferior competition this year(and even against a lethal offense like USC).

Oregon State can really name their number here. If anything, Colorado’s fluky win last week is getting us a more favorable number. I like the Beavers to win this by 4+ TD’s.

Early NBA Premiums, 10.21 and CFB Week 8 Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi All!

I’ve been getting a lot of questions about the NBA, wondering if I have a few more plays for tonight. One area where every handicapper can improve (because we’re all probably addicts somewhat) is limiting our exposure to bets we don’t feel strongly about. Trust me, if I have another play that I like, I’ll send you the pick ASAP.
Sometimes, that might mean I fade an 8-game NBA slate. That’s not likely, but it’s possible. As I continue to grow and hone this craft, it’ll only mean more profit for all of us and less money wasted or less on wagers with less inherent value. My goal is to not simply win you money, but to teach you the tactics of a judicious professional handicapper so that you can repeat the same tactics and do it on your own.
That said, let’s fucking go with a few picks!
NBA Premiums, 10.21 (6-2, +3.75 units overall):
Pelicans/Hornets over 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hornets and Pelicans were both top 3 in offensive efficiency and while I don’t expect much from the Nets’ defense, so that was hardly surprising for New Orleans, that’s a good sign for the Hornets. Even in a down year I’d expect the Spurs to be feisty in game one– didn’t happen. Charlotte has had more time without LaMelo Ball and scary Terry can run the offense well. They run at a fast pace and I think they’ll want to do that even more in their first game at home. I also like the matchup of both offenses; small quick guards on Charlotte vs. big rangy players on New Orleans– both should have offensive advantages. The Pelicans’ look like they could be a juggernaut this season and while I lean their way tomorrow night, I can’t take them at -6. That’s too much and too soon. I’ll go with the over.
Nets -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I really like the Raptors and think they’ll be a problem for a lot of teams this season in the right spots, but the Nets are still superiorly talented and this is a great response spot for the Nets after that embarrassing opening loss. The Raptors gave it all they had in a comeback win and they’re no slouches, but Durant and Kyrie take over in this one.
CFB Week 7 Picks ( 30-33-7, -9.46 units):

CFB Season is winding down in my brain since, firstly, we haven’t seen much success and I’m wondering if I ever should have handicapped it in the first place. Just too much going on with the NFL and now with the NBA. I’ll probably have a few plays I like every week but I’m going light from now on.
UCLA +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UCLA/Oregon under 70.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two physical defenses coming off a bye and this is a huge Pac-12 game. Like the under, this total is a little too high, and UCLA can score and has a tough defense to keep Oregon in line. Yes, even in Eugene.
Notre Dame -27 (-110), to win 1 unit
One of CFB’s worst teams come to South Bend and after a piss-poor loss to Stanford, ifg the Irish can’t get up and look elite here, they have more issues than Marcus Freeman.
 
Alabama -21 (-110), to win 2 units
Response spot for Alabama at home, and now every game needs a few more exclamation points for the Crimson Tide. They roll.
 
Purdue ML (+115), to win 0.57 units
Wisconsin is soft, end of explanation.
Army -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UL Monroe literally can’t stop anyone and Army is coming off 3 wins and I think they get UP for this one against a very beatable foe with an offense that can be stymied.
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