We have a great show for you today! Las Vegas Cris comes back on to break down a HUGE NFL week 5 slate of games! Kiev is on Vacation in Playa Del Carmen but hasn’t missed a beat when it comes to the huge weekend in sports! First, the guys talk a little bit about how the season is going. Next, Cris and Kiev @OBKiev get into the full NFL slate of games with some leans and FREE PLAYS for NFL week 5! After that, Kiev gives out some college football plays for week 6! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Big game for UCF with major motivation to give the home team something to get excited about in a state going through a lot right now. SMU had that article about all the transfers this week but that could be a good thing for the locker room with a team that has had a couple of tough losses so far this season. The Mustangs had a chance to win that game at UMD, which was a tough travel spot, and hung with a good TCU team. I like SMU to get this one as they have the rest advantage, a relentless offense, and market support bringing this line down to +2.5. SMU is in a tough spot again because of the motivation UCF will have in their conference home opener to give Floridians something to get excited about. So, I will look again to a standalone game, primetime under.
UCF’s defense can’t be ignored. The Knights held Louisville and FAU to less than 2 TD’s, that has me looking toward the under. Their offensive numbers also are worth considering as they come in as they come in 6th in rush yds/ game so they should be able to keep this SMU team off the field. We also have some reverse total movement as the majority of money is on the over (69% as of this article), yet the total has ticked down from 64.5. The under is a tough bet in any SMU game and if they do get a lead with their 9th ranked pass offense, we could see UCF open up their pass game and this thing could take off on us. Last year this was a 55-28 SMU win.
But, there is a trend in favor of the under… In the last two seasons, when SMU has a game totaled at 63 or higher, they are 4-8 O/U, 1-3 O/U in conference games and so far this season they are 1-3 O/U with that total parameter. UCF has gone under in their L2 games with the total at 63 or higher. This is a small contrarian look to the under for me, with two teams I have pretty evenly matched. The only shot in my opinion UCF has, is to look to control clock as much as possible. We are seeing some buy back to the over today, so waiting until closer to game time is not the worst idea if you also are willing to take a chance on this under.
Hi all! We had a great week in CFB Week 5 so looking for a repeat performance and, like I said, a steady flow of improvement from how we started. That should continue.
As far as the NBA goes, I’m not a big preseason bettor but I’m happy to give some lean considerations. I’ll also include a few futures if I see value but, again, it’s not my forte. The season is starting on October 18th and if you’re not signed on for the full season, you should be.
We won over 70 units last season and over 60 units the season before, hitting at 57% in over 800 plays. In case you’re unaware, that just doesn’t happen. Variance will happen, regression may hit at times, but we’ll thrive in the NBA again.
Onto Week 6 CFB Picks:
CFB Week 6 (22-24-2, -7.96 units):
Tennessee/LSU under 65 (-105), to win 1.5 units
No one can convince me that this game will be high scoring. This is a marquee rivalry game and although Tennessee can put up points, LSU is at home and they’ll be embattled to keep this close. Going with the under.
Liberty -24.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Nice friendly smash spot for Liberty, who needs to keep winning to stay in their conference race. If they don’t let down, they’ll roll.
Oklahoma St -9 (110), to win 1.5 units
The Cowboys are heavily favored but not enough, if you ask me. In a game that has a total of 70 against an opponent who’s worthy on offense but not so much on defense, I see Ok-St pulling ahead in the second half. I have them as -14.
Tulsa -5.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Navy has yet to score more than 17 pts in regulation this year– they’re very stingy on defense but I think Tulsa and their new dynamic QB will pull ahead in the passing game.
Alabama 1H -14 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Texas A&M just isn’t going in the right direction and in Tuscaloosa, this is a bad, bad setup for the Aggies in a spot that we all know Saban really cares about. I hate that the Aggies lost last week and maybe that means they fight hard overall, but I love Bama to take charge early in an aggressive fashion. Bryce Young or not, too much talent, too much fire.
Washington -13.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Big time “get up” game for Washington after their let-down last week against UCLA.
BYU +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
An ugly win for BYU last week and they know it – they may lose but this should be close throughout. Notre Dame just isn’t very good, despite a good performance 2 weeks ago. I’ll be sprinkling on BYU winning, too.
UCLA +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Utah is a very dangerous team and could win, but this is a great setup for the Bruins, at home, with a very able run defense. Take out Utah’s star athlete and it’s a different game. I think it’s close throughout.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley goes over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for the weekend slate. Get ready for your Week 5 bets and oh yea, the NBA is around the corner, too!
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
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Wednesday card has the MLB Last home Game Play of the year (4-1 last 5Y) backed with a perfect Game 162 System, We also have the Triple Perfect CFB Top Play total. Champions League Pay below.
The Champions league comp play is on RB Leipzig at 12:45 eastern. Leipzig is a top level German team that has been exposed to much tougher competition than their counter parts from the Scottish league. Celtic is solid in league play but will be making a big jump here. Leipzig in unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home and they found the back of the net 12 times in those 5 matches. Celtic may be without one of their key defender, but even so, they have won just 1 of their last 6 European road matches. Look for RB Leipzig to emerge on top. On Hump Day Rob Brings the Bang with his Final Home game Play of the year in MLB a play which has hit in 4 of the last 5 years and is backed with a Game 162 specific system. There is also the Triple Perfect Top Play total in College Football. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on and get both now. For the Soccer Play. Go with RB Leipzig. Rob V- GC Sports
What a wild week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Mackenzie Hughes defeated Sepp Straka in a two-hole playoff capturing his 2nd career PGA Tour victory. With that win, Hughes ended his drought of 155 professional starts without a win. Sepp Straka on the other hand has now lost two playoffs in his last four PGA Tour starts.
This week, we have a better field with President’s Cup winners Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa competing. Speaking of the President’s Cup, Tom Kim will be making his first start of the season after a thrilling performance at Quail Hollow for the International Team. Sungjae Im, who was also on that International side, will look to defend his title at TPC Summerlin after winning by four strokes last year. This event has provided us with some fireworks in the past with three of the last five editions coming down to a playoff.
It’s very top-heavy in terms of odds providing some great value down the board. However, course history has proven to play a major role here making some of the favorites this week hard to pass up. Let’s get into the Shriners Children’s Open as we look to rebound from last week’s struggles.
No other greens have dominator bentgrass greens. They installed new greens and fairways this year. Previously, they had A1/A4 bentgrass greens and 419 bermudagrass fairways.
Comparable Average Green Size (7,400 sq. ft.):
Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – 7,500 sq. ft. – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Riviera Country Club – 7,500 sq. ft. – The Genesis Invitational
The Shiners Children’s Open was founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic. This event changed names throughout the years but since 2008, Shriner’s Children Hospitals has remained the official sponsor. When they took over the rights that year, TPC Summerlin also became the host course and the event has been held there every year since. Throughout the entirety of the event, it’s always been held in the Las Vegas surrounding area.
TPC Summerlin opened in 1991 and was originally designed by Booby Wood Throughout the years it’s undergone several minor renovations but last year, the greens and fairways were completely replaced. The course has been shut down since April 15th with the official re-opening of the course being this week’s event.
At the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open, the greens were A1/A4 bentgrass and the fairways were 419 bermudagrass. This year, the greens were changed to Dominator bentgrass and the fairways were changed to Bandera bermudagrass. Looking at the upcoming PGA Tour schedule, this is the only course that features this unique type of putting surface. Other courses have pure bentgrass greens but none that feature this specific seed of bermudagrass.
72-Hole Record: 260, Ryan Moore (2012), Webb Simpson (2013), Sungjae Im (2021)
18-Hole Record (TPC Summerlin): 60, J.J. Henry (Rd 1, 2013), Rod Pampling (Rd 1, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 that plays 7,255 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The length of the course along with drier conditions have allowed short hitters to thrive here. Water does come into play on four holes but it’s mainly on the closing stretch.
The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 239 yards. Last year, three of the four Par 3’s had a scoring average over par with No. 14 being the only outlier.
No. 17 is a challenging downhill Par 3 that has a green heavily guarded by bunkers and water. On this hole Par is a good score with more bogeys being recorded than birdies last year.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest listed at 341 with the longest being No. 3, just short of 500 yards (492).
No. 18 is a well-designed closing hole that forces players into hitting a difficult tee shot. They’ll have to carry a drive over a wash but be careful not to go too far as water does come into play. On their approach, players will face water short left and countless bunkers around the green. It’s a great way to end the tournament as players’ scores affect their approach to this hole.
The three Par 5’s are No. 9, 13, and 16. Only one of these Par 5’s is over 600 yards (No. 13). In terms of difficulty, they all had scoring averages below par with No 9 being the easiest. Last year, that was the only hole on the course to not have a double-bogey recorded on it.
No. 16 is the shortest of the three Par 5’s and is reachable with two good shots. It’s a little tight off the tee with trees lining both sides of the fairway. An accurate approach shot is crucial here as water does come into play short left and bunkers guarding the back of the green.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Patrick Cantlay (+750), has never finished worse than T8 at this event. He won the Shiners Children’s Open back in 2017, finished runner-up in 2018, and lost in a playoff in 2019. Cantlay skipped last year’s event but will look to pick up where he left off. He played fairly well at the President’s Cup and finished T7 at the TOUR Championship in his last official event.
Sungjae Im (+1400), is the defending champion and a player who’s had tremendous success here at TPC Summerlin. Outside of winning this event last year, he’s finished T13 and T15 in his two other appearances. The last time we saw Sungjae was at the President’s Cup. He had a rough start but was able to win with Munoz in Round 4 and defeat Cameron Young in the singles on Sunday. In his last official start on the PGA Tour, he finished T2 at the TOUR Championship.
Max Homa (+2000), is coming off an undefeated record at the President’s Cup. Before that, he successfully defended his title at the Fortinet Championship. The issue for Max Homa is his course history. In his four appearances at TPC Summerlin, he has never made it to the weekend.
Joohyung “Tom” Kim (+2200), put on an absolute show at the President’s Cup and is a budding superstar. He won his first PGA Tour event last year at the Wyndham Championship and has ridden that momentum since. Tom Kim will be making his debut at the Shiners Children’s Open this year but looks to be a great course fit.
Previous Winners in the field; Sungjae Im (’21), Martin Laird (’20, ’09), Patrick Cantlay (’17), Ben Martin (’14), and Ryan Moore (’12)
Notable Withdraws: Trey Mullinax, Davis Riley
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Patrick Cantlay (+700): 1/2/2/T8
Sungjae Im (+1400): T15/T13/1
Matthew NeSmith (+6600): T18/T8/T14
Adam Hadwin (+6600): T10/MC/T27/T4/T34/T6
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Max Homa (+2000): T30/MC/MC/MC/MC
Keith Mitchell (+6600): MC/MC/MC/MC
Zac Blair (+20000): T75/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Tyler Duncan (+25000): MC/MC/MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Sungjae Im (-24)
Price: 33-1
2020: Martin Laird (-23)
Price: 225-1
2019: Kevin Na (-23)
Price: 70-1
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
Price: 14-1
2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
Price: 20-1
Picks (Outrights):
Sungjae Im (+1400) – FanDuel
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
I’m usually not a fan of backing someone at these odds but as hard as I tried, I can’t leave Sungjae off the card this week. His course history speaks for itself and on top of that, he’s been in great form lately. In his last five starts on Tour, he’s finished T2 three times! We already had Homa win back-to-back events and Sungjae certainly looks to be able to keep that trend going.
Aaron Wise (+3100) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 8.06 Units
Wise has competed at TPC Summerlin six times with three top-15 finishes during that span. He’ll be making his first start of the season but look to be primed for a hot start based on his last few finishes. We know he’s great off the tee and has an iron game to match. The issue with Wise has been his short game and ability to putt. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in five of his six starts here. His play around the green also seems to thrive at TPC Summerlin gaining strokes in four of his six appearances. If Wise can keep it in the fairway off the tee, he has shown he has everything else needed to win.
Emiliano Grillo (+4000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Emiliano Grillo has been playing some great golf as of late finishing T25 and T5 in the first two events of the season. The only issue with him has been his play around the green. If we look at past winners we’ve seen that their short game hasn’t been the key to victory. He has everything you’re looking for this week ranking well in every key category. In terms of course history, it’s not great, but he has shown he can putt well here gaining strokes in his last two starts at TPC Summerlin. He usually has one or two “blowup” rounds that take him out of contention so if he can avoid that, I like his chances. Also, I’m fully aware that backing Grillo can be an absolute nightmare so I apologize in advance.
Andrew Putnam (+9000) – Bet365
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Putnam has been trending upwards finishing T43 and T30 in his first two starts of the season. He has a great course history as well finishing inside the top 20 in two of his last three starts at this event. Overall, he ranks well in nearly every category besides one, off the tee. Putnam has not gained strokes off the tee in his last two events and has never gained strokes off the tee at this course. The one positive is his accuracy but his lack of distance compared to other players is significant. Given that it is a short course and the importance of accuracy over distance this week, he should have a better chance to compete.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.13 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tom Kim (+140) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Tom Kim enters this event primed for a breakout season. He’s been in great form finishing 7/1/T13/T54 in his last four starts on Tour. Kim has yet to compete at TPC Summerlin but appears to be a great course fit on paper. In his last seven events, he’s gained strokes on approach, and in eight of his last nine has gained strokes off the tee. His putting can be his downfall as we saw in the BMW Championship losing 1.31 strokes. If he can putt even moderately well and lose less than half a stroke on the green, he should do well.
Tom Hoge (+220) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Tom Hoge is a veteran of the Shriners Children’s Open competing in his event six times. He struggled in the begging at TPC Summerlin finishing T67 in his first two starts. However, in his last four starts here he seems to have figured out the course a bit finishing T7/MC/T24/T14. In his lone start of the season, he finished T12 at the Fortinet Championship. He gained strokes in every major category besides around the green. Hoge’s short game has always been an issue for him so it’s nothing out of the ordinary. If we look at Hoge’s profile he ranks well in approach and tee to green which is the two big stats this week. His putting is inconsistent, to say the least, but he’s gained strokes on the green in three of his last four appearances at TPC Summerlin and three of his last four starts on Tour.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Adam Hadwin (+100) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Just like Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin is a veteran of TPC Summerlin. Based off his finishing positions, he seems to thrive here. In his six appearances at the Shriners Children’s Open, he had three top 10s. Last week, he made his first start of the season finishing T45 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. His tee game was out of sorts which is a little unusual for him and slightly worrisome coming into the week. Despite that, his approach play has been fantastic ranking 26th on Tour. His putting has also been great at TPC Summerlin gaining strokes on the green in every start here.
Matthew Nesmith (+120) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
I was looking at playing him as a T20 but at plus money odds, I’ll take him to finish T40 instead. This may come back to haunt me but I feel much safer with this positioning. Last week, Matthew Nesmith made his first appearance of the season finishing T9 at the Country Club of Jackson. His ball-striking ability was on full display last week gaining 1.49 strokes on approach. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in his last four events which is crucial this week. Nesmith also has a great course history here finishing T18/T8/T14 in his three starts at TPC Summerlin.
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Shriners Children’s Open: 5.13 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
