We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 11! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a small slate tonight with only three games taking place across the NHL. I break down each game and offer my best bets of the night.
Game Previews:
St. Louis Blues (+165) @ Boston Bruins (-195)
The Blues started the season strong winning their first three games. However, they have lost their last six games being outscored 30-10 during that span.
Boston has had a great start to the season going 10-2 despite missing some key players. They’re 6-0 at home with their two losses coming on the road to Toronto and Ottawa.
STL: J. Binnington (confirmed)
BOS: L. Ullmark (confirmed)
Calgary Flames (-120) @ New York Islanders (+100)
The Calgary Flames started off the year strong going 5-1-0 but have been on a cold streak as of late losing their last four games. During that span, they’ve averaged 4 goals against per game. This is also just their second game on the road this year.
The Islanders have been great at home this year with a 4-2-0 record. They’re coming off a three-game road trip where they went 2-1. That lone loss was in their previous game against the Detroit Red Wings.
CGY: J. Markstrom (confirmed)
NYI: I. Sorokin (confirmed)
Edmonton Oilers (-165) @ Washington Capitals (+140)
The Oilers have dropped their last two games to New Jersey and Dallas. They’ll begin a four-game road trip tonight starting in the nation’s capital. On the year, they’re 7-5-0 and sit in 4th place in the Pacific Division.
Washington has been sub-par to start the year with a 5-6-2 record. They’re currently on a four-game losing streak. The good news for the Capitals is that they have a better record at home.
EDM: S. Skinner (confirmed)
WSH: C. Lindgren (confirmed)
Pick(s):
Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
Both the Oilers and Capitals have been struggling as of late. The Oilers have dropped their last two games while Washington has lost four straight. However, the issues for these teams are slightly different.
While averaging 3.83 GF/G on the year, the Oilers’ offense has been performing at a below-average rate in their last two games. Edmonton’s defensive woes also continue as they’re allowing the 24th most GA/G. Part of that blame can be passed to Jack Campbell who hasn’t had an ideal start to the season.
Washington is riddled with injuries and has shown no signs of breaking out of the slump they’re in. Due to all of the injuries up front, they’re struggled to produce and capitalize on any scoring chances they do generate. Defensively, they’re 11th in GA/G but could be much worse if it wasn’t for the play of Darcy Kuemper. However, Charlie Lindgren will get the nod in net tonight. He hasn’t been bad by any means but also hasn’t played as well as their main guy.
This is a great spot for the Oilers to break out of their two-game skid. They face a banged-up Capitals team that seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Stuart Skinner will also get the start for the Oilers tonight who’s been the better goalie by far.
Boston Bruins/ St. Louis Blues over 6.0 (-112) – Barstool
Risk 0.28 to win 0.25 Units
The Blues will try to end their six-game skid against arguably the best team in the NHL tonight. Boston has been a force this year going 10-2-0 and undefeated on home ice. The Bruins rank 1st in GF/G and 4th in GA/G. St. Louis on the other hand ranks dead last in GF/G and 28th in GA/G.
You may be asking, if the Blues can’t score and Boston has a great defense, why take the over? There’s no doubt that Boston will likely contribute most of the scoring. St. Louis has been horrendous on defense and has several players out. Jordan Binnington has also been confirmed as the starter for the Blues. In his last three games, he’s allowed at least four games and has a sub .800 SV%. Linus Ullmark will start for the Bruins who’s allowed at least two goals against per game in his last three starts. So while Boston is a great defensive team, they still allow a couple of goals against per game.
Player Props to Target:
Zach Hyman over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 SOG and over 7.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Washington ranks 16th in SOG allowed per game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Happy Opening Day of CBB! To start out the season, all plays will be 0.5u and I won’t have as many plays as I do in January-February. With that said, given the sheer volume of today’s card, I do have 4 plays for you looking to come out of the gates fast!
*CBB(0.5u): Morehead State TT UNDER 56.5 @ Indiana–6 PM CT
There is a lot of hype around Indiana this year as Mike Woodson enters his second year at the helm of this Hoosiers program. The offense was far too inconsistent last year, and you have to account for some wiggle room on that end of the floor early in the season. However, I feel quite confident in Indiana’s defense; Woodson instantly improved Indiana to a top 25 defense in his first season, and I have them power-rated as a Top 10 defense in the country heading into the season.
Morehead State runs a slow-paced style of offense(bottom 50 in CBB) that is not going to match up well against Indiana. KenPom has the Eagles ranked 248th on that end of the floor, which gives you a barometer as to how big of a mismatch this is. I expect Indiana to come out with their hair on fire defensively and possibly hold Morehead State into the 40’s.
*CBB(0.5u): Texas State TT UNDER 59.5 @ Washington State–6:30 PM CT
I’m not a huge believer in Washington State’s offense; I have them power-rated outside of the Top 100 in the country on that end of the floor. While that dissuades me from laying double-digits with the Cougars, I have very little doubt their defense will shine in this matchup.
Texas State is an EXTREMELY slow-paced team(335th last season) that could go even slower this year. Some key losses on the offensive end of the floor drops their offense outside of the Top 200 according to KenPom. We know Terrence Johnson is not going away from his slow-paced ways; am I really expecting this group to come out and hang 60 on the road against a Top 50 defense?
*CFB(0.5u): Iowa State 1H -16 vs IUPUI–7 PM CT
As I am writing this, I am currently watching Baylor take a 38-point lead into the half against Mississippi Valley State. It’s a good reminder that, when you’re talking about the bottom 10-or-so teams in College Basketball stepping up in competition, the oddsmakers really can’t make these lines high enough.
IUPUI is an utter train wreck of a program. In fact, this is the last year of the program’s existence. This team went 3-26 a year ago and very well may be the worst team in America once again.
We’ll see if TJ Otzelberger can sustain success in Ames after an incredible Sweet 16 run in his first year, but regardless, this is an absolute dream matchup for his Cyclones.
*CFB(0.5u): UT Arlington TT UNDER 57 @ Oklahoma State–8 PM CT
Common theme with these TT Under’s: Very slow-paced teams with poor scoring ability stepping up in competition against bruising defenses.
UT Arlington ranked in the bottom quarter of America in pace last season and likely brings a bottom 50 offense in the country into Stillwater tonight. I’m actually expecting a dramatic improvement from Oklahoma State’s offense this year, but I’m just going to need to see it before I believe it when you’re talking about laying 20 points. We do know the Cowboys had a Top 5 defense in the country a year ago that should (at the very least) finish in the Top 25 this season.
UTA put up just 45 points against these Cowboys last year in the season opener; This game screams 70-50.
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We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil previews the 2022/2023 College Basketball Coaching & Tempo Changes. Which teams will be playing faster? Which teams might play slower or not even change at all? We also have a future play that Kiev gives out.
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Let’s keep churning and burning in the NBA, my friends.
Wizards/Hornets under 221 (-110), to win 1/5 units
Again these Hornets totals are too high and I don’t see that changing against the slow moving, defense-oriented Washington Wizards. Bradley Beal just entered COVID protocol 2 days ago so I doubt he’ll be back. And even with Terry Rozier, who played 36 min against the Nets, the Hornets only found 94 points. This is a team searching for an identity and lost on offense without their stars. The Wizards will only make that harder. We’ll look to see where team totals are tomorrow but we’ll probably play on that, too.
Pelicans -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line may move down but I like this as a smash spot for New Orleans. Even though the Pelicans are on a tough 4 game road stretch, it doesn’t mean they’re not going to win. Zion should play in this one but I think he’s questionable. Either way, especially if Chris Duarte remains out, the Pacers aren’t in the same league as the Pelicans and I don’t think they have the personnel to stop the physical offense they’ll face.
Suns -1.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Talk about two teams not in the same class: Something is iffy with this line but I’ll gladly take it at this number. With Embiid and Harden out, the Sixers ultimately struggled to sustain offense against the Knicks and that was the difference three nights ago. Now a disciplined defensive team comes to town in the Phoenix Suns and even though this is the Suns’ first real road stretch, they’re built for consistency. Eventually the young guns in Philly will have a big game and show out without their two veteran stars but this isn’t the spot. Love the Suns.
Knicks/Timberwolves over 229 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Rudy Gobert should be out of this contest and that’s a big deal for this angle. Rudy only slows down Minnesota but without one of their bigs and already the 4th fastest team in the NFL, I think they’ll be off to the races quick Monday night. The Knicks tend to go by the pace of the other team but they’re still moving fast overall (12th on the road) and they’re a solid offensive team so far. Jalen Brunson only catalyzes this entire narrative.
Kings/Warriors over 230 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The first game between these two resulted in 255 points. Normally I’d anticipate some regression or at least consider it, but this is a chance for the Warriors to put up a classic offensive show at home against a team that doesn’t like to play defense anyway. And I love the offensive efficiency and pace I’ve seen from SAC. Another over!
Cavs -1 (-105), to win 1 unit
Eventually regression has to hit and maybe the Clippers flex and play like an actual team in a good spot at home, why is this is only 1 unit, but the Cavs are buzzing and playing with incredible confidence right now. I’m not sure if the Clippers can hang; though this line is strange.
Anyone else a little woozy and fucked up because of the time change? Same. Feels like it’s noon and it’s not even close.
Anywho, we keep on winning in the NBA (35-18-1, +17.43 units) and we’re not unhappy about it. A sweet 5-1 day in CFB wasn’t too shabby, either. LSU was clearly the side.
Again I absolutely despise the Sunday slate of NBA action but in case you just can’t help but spend your money and feed your addiction (that’s probably what it is if you need to bet every day, FYI – it’s okay, we’ve all been through it), here are my thoughts. Aka – not official picks:
Good spot for LAL, but Cleveland has been elite
Much better spot for Toronto, but the Bulls have impressed recently
The Grizzlies shouldn’t be 10 point favorites but I think they matchup really well against Washington. Probably would have been a play if it was 6 or less.
Clippers? No thanks. Wouldn’t be shocked if the Jazz won another upset.
The Bears have traded some defensive guys away and its just part of the business of rebuilding. The Market seemed to go Miami’s way by a half point or so after the Roquan Smith news, but later in the week, it went back down and even lower to 4. Too be honest. I am not so sure the Lions are better than the Chicago Bears and this line closed at -3.5. The Bears defense stinks, but this team is quietly ranked 17th in offensive EPA margin and they have a top 3 rushing offense at 5.3 yards per rush. Miami has improved some with Tua, but I do not like how his passes are soft and flutter in the air so long. Plus it will be pretty windy in the city, and I think that leaves a lot of room for interceptions. The Bears have a bad front seven, but they have a pretty good secondary. I think the Bears have the ability with Justin Fields to back door if not win outright. Miami believe it or not, only has a .6 net yards per play advantage over the Bears. I don’t like how Miami is on back to back road games here and I think that they Bears could cause some disruption. Take da Bears.
Bears +4 – 2 stars
Chargers vs Falcons +3 O/U 49.5
Did you see that huge Falcons win last week? If you think by any means that the Panthers offense is better than the Chargers, then I have a bridge to sell you. The Falcons are a good running team and they will get Patterson back this week. The Chargers rank 27th in opponent rush EPA giving up a league worst 5.7 rushing yards per attempt. The Falcons defense isn’t exactly good either giving up a league worst 307 passing yards per game ranking 30th in drop-back success rate. You also can’t ignore the JC Jackson injury for the bolts which will hurt their passing defense as well as all of the secondary injured for the Falcons. Taking the over.
Over 49.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Bengals to -1 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars
The Magic typically play at the pace of their opponent and that means they’ll be running up and down the floor chasing after a fast-paced Kings’ squad. The Magic also play at a faster pace at home (10th overall), and the Kings, for whatever reason, play exceptionally faster on the road (3rd overall). Sacramento is considerably more talented than Orlando offensively. Like the matchup, like the pace. I have this at 233.
Hornets TT under 109.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Lately the Hornets can’t score points. In their last 5 games they’re averaging only 101.6 ppg and they’re 22nd in OFF EFF at home. For whatever reason, they’re also ranked as a bottom 10 team in pace at home. Not sure what that’s all about. There’s a chance this is a spot for regression since Brooklyn just played last night, but the Nets are playing better defense recently. I also like that neither team is great at creating second-chance opportunities. The Hornets are just too injured and this is a sleepy spot for Brooklyn who won’t look to show out with any huge offensive performances. Get in, get out, sleepy, low scoring game and the Hornets don’t get close to 110, IMO. I have this game ending 109-101.
Pelicans ML (+110), to win 1.1 units
Atlanta has a massive rest advantage but I don’t care. Zion and most of the Pelicans’ starters didn’t play anywhere close to 30 minutes last night and Atlanta is a short drive. New Orleans has a lot of momentum right now; they’re just clicking as a young, exciting team. They’re what Atlanta wants to be but I don’t think the Hawks are there yet. The Pelicans’ length and interior offense should be a problem against a Hawks’ team that can rely too much on perimeter efficiency. Give me the Pels in a short upset.
Jokic over 46.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-110), to win 1 unit
I like this as an excellent setup for Jokic at home going up against a small Spurs’ squad. We’ve seen that with Siakam and Embiid when they went up against SAS and in general, the Spurs’ just aren’t playing great defense against anyone. It’s an ideal spot for Denver at home and while the line (-10) is probably slightly too big, this is an angle we can take advantage of. PS: Prop plays won’t count towards our ATS record- we’ll keep a separate record of how often these hit.
Bonus Play: UFC Fight Night
Mark Madsen (+180), to win 1.8 units
This is priced wrong. Mark Madsen is an elite, silver-medal-Olympian wrestler who hasn’t shown any flaws in his takedown offense or defense. Grant Dawson is the younger, sexier play with elite wrestling ability himself, but that shouldn’t make him the favorite. I think Madsen is better on the mat and I always side with the superior wrestler in these cases. It bodes well for us!
Seriously, what gives TCU? You keep overperforming your outlook, and covering spreads. What is it gonna take to end this non-sense? I think a look ahead game to Texas might be the answer. TCU’s offense has been incredible under coach Sonny Dykes and you have to give them a ton of credit for what they have accomplished but I am concerned for this defense that only ranks 84th in EPA per play. Texas Tech hasn’t had a great season by any means once Tyler Shough got hurt, but their defense has held them up rankings 22nd in success rate and 39th in EPA per play. The big thing here for me is something that we need to pay attention to. Tyler Shough should be back from his injury this game. He tinkered some last week with a few plays but didn’t start and the Red Raiders were all ready blown out. I also think that the look ahead to Texas might hurt the Horned Frogs in this spot. Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Texas Tech +9.5 – 2 stars
Alabama vs LSU +13.5 O/U 58.5
This game has become interesting over the past few weeks. Alabama has shown some venerability vs Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M while LSU started off a bit slow and then has been rolling over the past few weeks. Metrically, Alabama has a huge 2.11 yards per play advantage as well as top 5 in both offensive and defensive EPA, but LSU has been creeping up ranking 12th in offensive EPA and 43rd on defense. The big question here is if this spread is justified, and I do not think that it is. LSU is good against stopping the pass ranking 24th in opponent passing success rate and that is where Alabama gets their yards. The Tide’s rushing offense only ranks 60th in success rate, and they have become more of a mask for the pass. I think that the 3rd element to LSU’s offense is Jayden Daniels rushing the football. LSU should be able to pick up some big 1st downs being that Alabama only ranks 30th in opponent rushing success rate. This is a huge night game here in Death Valley, and both teams are coming off of the bye. Last year, a much worse LSU team played this Alabama team close. Take the points.
