On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the two games for October 11th, 2022 along with several other topics.
Topics:
2022-23 NHL Season Hot Takes
NHL Futures
Hart Trophy
Vezina Trophy
James Norris Trophy
Calder Trophy
NHL Games – October 11th, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers
Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
The Firenze Open in Italy takes center stage and we have a pair of Americans set to do battle in Jenson Brooksby and MacKenzie McDonald. We will be back Brooksby here as has won 4 of the 5 sets between the two in the head to head series and has won both meetings, both of which were this year on hard courts. Brooksby is the more distinguished of the two and has has better results making it to the 3rd round at both Wimbledeon and The U.S. Open, as well as reaching 2 other finals this year. McDonald has had mixed results and lost in the 2nd round of the Japan Open last week. He has not been able to take advantage of the Brooksby serve in their matches and has lost most of the longer rallies. The Match should be close and may go 3 sets. However, we will back Brooksby here to advance. Rob Vinciletti
Monday night Football Game of the Year headlines. CFL Play below
The CFL Matinee Power System Play is on the Ottawa Red Blacks plus the 7 points at 1:00 eastern. Ottawa has covered 10 of 11 here and already Mauled Montreal here this year a few weeks ago. Today Ottawa Qualifies in this perfect 11-0 System that dates to 2004 and plays on road dogs off a road dog loss and a prior home loss and scored more than 10 in their last game and are taking on a Division opponent that scored less than 30 points in their last game. Montreal has failed to cover 5 of 6 on Mondays. Ottawa has covered 4 of 5 on the road. Take the points here. Our Highest rated Monday night Football play is up and has a perfect system and 5 power angles. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the CFL Play take the points with Ottawa. Rob V-
Here are some early looks at NBA lines for opening night, below. I also kinda like a preseason game tonight – but seriously, do NOT bet a lot on preseason NBA action. Good way to lose money if you’re not careful. Let’s get to it:
Nuggets +4.5 tonight (-110), to win 0.5 units
Two field goal underdogs at home to a Suns’ team that seems in disarray, nahh. Pure numbers play on Denver, who has yet to get a preseason win.
Opening Night, October 18
76ers/Celtics over 214 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two top Eastern Conference opponents faceoff in Week 1 and I think Boston is set for some regression after they lost Ime Udoka for the season – Ime brought an intensity and defensive-minded approach to Boston that hardened them and prepared them for more success last year. They’ll miss his gritty style, and the 76ers are still super talented and poised to prove something out the gate. We saw high totals last year in the openers and I expect the same here; defenses need a little time to adjust.
Don’t forget to lock in these UFC 280 bets! Two weeks away!
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units
Under 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw. for the win
CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 04: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the 33-25 win against Jacksonville Jaguars at Paul Brown Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
54% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 3.98% ROI
56% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.5% ROI
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 1% ROI
44% lifetime UFC On All Plays 7% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Chargers vs Browns +2 O/U 48
This should be a pretty good game to watch. The Chargers are laying road chalk against a team that has some talent. Last week, the Browns out-gained the Falcons by 70 yards in that loss and their perception went too low due to this. Believe it or not, Cleveland this year rank 7th in offensive EPA compared to the high flying Chargers ranking 11th. On the defensive side of the ball, the Browns do have a glaring weakness against the run, but the Chargers also have that weakness on offense ranking only 27th in rush EPA and 2.7 yards per rush. The Chargers give up 5.4 yards per rushing attempt, and I think that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will have a field day on Sunday. I also do not like the earlier game for the west coast team. Take the Brownies
Browns +2 – 2 stars
Bengals vs Ravens -3 O/U 48.5
This is a fascinating game because there is a lot of disagreement in the Marketplace on which team is better. I happen to have the opinion that both teams are ranked pretty close, but I have the Bengals slightly better in my power ratings. This handicap has all to do with what the Bengals do well. Baltimore’s key to success is running the ball and the Bengals, last year, were able to slow Lamar and company down the last two matchups allowing less than 116 yards rushing. The Bengals rank 8th in passing yards at 257 per game while Baltimore ranks dead last allowing 315 per game. The Ravens also have a banged up offensive line and linebacking crew. I think that the Bengals cover this and have a chance to win outright
Bengals +3 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Commanders to +8.5 with the Chiefs to -1 – 2 stars
Sunday card has the 100% AFC North Game of the Year on Sunday night Football and 2 TOP Totals plays from a 32-1 Totals system one is a top 6*, we also have our Signature Executive Level TIER 1 play and any MLB Wild card Game 3 Power Systems,
At 4:25 eastern. The NFL Power System Play is on Arizona plus the points over Philadelphia. We note that since 1990 Non Division home dogs of more than 2 off a road dog win where they scored 23 r more and had 1 or no turnovers are a perfect 11-0 Ats in week 12 or earlier if the total is less than 50. The Eagles are 4-0 but have failed to cover the last after putting up 350+ yards and 1-5 to the spread after allowing less than 150 pass yards. The Eagles are 0-5 to the spread here in Arizona. Last week they rushed for 200+ yards over the Jags. This week they take on the 5th best Rush defense. Arizona has covered 15 of 20 October games and the host team has covered 8 of 11. Look for Arizona to get the cover. A big Sunday is up and has the AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Sunday night. We also have an Executive LEVEL TIER 1, a 6* Total from a 32-1 Totals system and any MLB Wild Card Game 3 Power systems. NFL on Fire this year. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the NFL Comp play. Go with Arizona. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 8-3-0
ATS: 11-0-0
Oct 07, 1990 view Sunday 5 1990 Oilers Fortyniners home 14-0 0-7 7-7 0-10 21-24 5.5 46.0 -3 2.5 -1.0 0.8 -1.8 L W U 0
Sep 22, 1991 view Sunday 4 1991 Falcons Raiders home 7-0 0-7 7-7 7-3 21-17 2.5 36.5 4 6.5 1.5 4.0 -2.5 W W O 0
Oct 15, 1995 view Sunday 7 1995 Colts Fortyniners home 3-0 3-7 9-7 3-3 18-17 10.0 46.0 1 11.0 -11.0 0.0 -11.0 W W U 0
Sep 15, 2002 view Sunday 2 2002 Saints Packers home 7-0 14-10 7-7 7-3 35-20 2.5 45.5 15 17.5 9.5 13.5 -4.0 W W O 0
Nov 23, 2003 view Sunday 12 2003 Texans Patriots home 3-0 0-10 7-0 10-10 20-23 5.5 37.0 -3 2.5 6.0 4.2 1.8 L W O 1
Nov 26, 2006 view Sunday 12 2006 Bills Jaguars home 7-0 10-14 7-0 3-10 27-24 3.0 36.0 3 6.0 15.0 10.5 4.5 W W O 0
Oct 10, 2010 view Sunday 5 2010 Commanders Packers home 0-7 3-3 0-3 10-0 16-13 2.5 45.5 3 5.5 -16.5 -5.5 -11.0 W W U 1
Oct 24, 2010 view Sunday 7 2010 Dolphins Steelers home 6-0 10-17 3-3 3-3 22-23 3.0 41.0 -1 2.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 L W O 0
Nov 28, 2010 view Sunday 12 2010 Bears Eagles home 14-3 7-10 10-0 0-13 31-26 3.0 43.0 5 8.0 14.0 11.0 3.0 W W O 0
Nov 27, 2016 view Sunday 12 2016 Buccaneers Seahawks home 14-0 0-5 0-0 0-0 14-5 5.0 45.5 9 14.0 -26.5 -6.2 -20.2 W W U 0
Sep 29, 2019 view Sunday 4 2019 Saints Cowboys home 0-3 9-0 0-7 3-0 12-10 2.5 46.0 2 4.5 -24.0 -9.8 -14.2 W W U 0
Oct 09, 2022 view Sunday 5 2022 Cardinals Eagles home 5.0 49.5
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 3-1 in the high participant Double-Ups. On a 3 Week winning streak!
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 12-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Tom Brady, QB: $6,000. Going back to the value well again this week at QB. This just seems like the spot the Bucs get going. Brady lit the scoreboard up playing from behind last week. I expect him to do the same at the start this week against the Falcons. This offense just hums different with Mike Evans and the rest of Brady’s weapons are getting healthy with the exception of Cameron Brate. The Falcons are currently 26th in the NFL against the pass.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB: $5,500. Wilson looks to be the lead back with 18 carries last week for the 49ers against the Rams. While Deebo will continue to get his I think Wilson is the look here for a possible grinder of a game against the Panthers. There’s also the possibility he gets a good chunk of carries holding onto a lead late in the game.
Damien Harris, RB: $5,600. With it looking like Bailey Zappe will start again at QB this week against Detroit, expect the Pats to commit to the ground game like they did against the Packers last week. While I think Zappe will throw more with first team snaps and a solid game plan to attack this porous Lions Defense, the offense will flow threw Harris. The Lions are allowing a league worst 5.6 Yards per attempt on the ground.
Cooper Kupp, WR: $9,600. Yes I am paying up for Kupp. Stafford is struggling to stay upright against teams with a solid pass rush which means he needs to get it out quick. Which means Kupp. He had 19 targets and 14 catches against the 49ers last week, and 15 targets and 13 catches against the Bills week 1 when Stafford was under pressure. (Also they were behind). It could be a little tougher with the Cowboys sitting at 5th in pass DVOA, but I don’t care. He’s getting the ball.
Mike Evans, WR: $6,900. If we’re gonna have Brady we should probably have some guys for him to throw to and cash in on some stacks. Evans had 6 catches for 103 yards and 2 scores last week and Evans is a beast in the Red Zone. He is tied for the league lead with 3 Red Zone TDs on 5 Targets despite missing a week.
Christian Kirk, WR: $6,600. Kirk only had 2 catches last week, but was still targeted 9 times. He is clearly Trevor Lawrence’s favorite option garnering 28% of the targets up to this point. I see a bounce back game here against the Texans. With the Jags struggling to rush the ball look for them to go to the air early and often to get up on Houston this week.
Cade Otton, TE: $2,500. It’s possible Kyle Rudolph plays a bigger role this week with Cameron Brate being out, but I think Otton endeared himself to Brady last week after taking over the top spot catching 3 of 4 balls thrown his way.
Tyler Allgeier, Flex: $4,700. It will be a tough test against the Bucs, so I’m not sure how many carries the Falcons will garner if they get behind. That being said Allgeier looked good last week when he was in the game rushing 10 times for 84 yards and catching one pass of 20. While he did split pretty much 50/50 with Caleb Huntley I think Allgeier starts to take the lions share of the work going forward with Patterson hitting the IR. The Falcons will try and keep the Bucs offense off the field by running the ball early.
Cowboys, DST: $2,500. I think the Cowboys are highly under valued here against the Rams. Yes, the Rams are the defending Super Bowl champs and have Cooper Kupp who we are taking, but they also can’t protect Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in Sack Percentage at 9.55%. Two of the teams ahead of them are the Bills and 49ers, and we saw what they did to the Rams. Also the Cowboys have yet to allow a team to score 20 points this season. With this total only sitting at 42 I think it could easily happen again.
Running back Demetric Felton #10 of the UCLA Bruins celebrates with teammates after running for a 75 yard touchdown against the Oregon State Beavers in the second half of a NCAA football game at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019 in Pasadena, California. Oregon State Beavers won 48-31. (Photo by Keith Birmingham, Pasadena Star-News/SCNG)
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Utah vs UCLA +4.5 O/U 65
This is probably the best game in the Pac 12. UCLA took care of Washington as a dog last week and now they are sitting pretty as a dog again to Utah. If you have watched Utah play football over the past 10 years, you would see that the Ute’s are a much better home team than on the road. UCLA has a good coach in Chip Kelly and a very strong offense ranking 10th in success rate. They are a positive 2.4 net yards per play compared to Utah at 1.78. UCLA’s defense could certainly use some work, but they at least were able to shut down Washington last week allowing only 65 yards rushing and forcing two interceptions. Utah just came off of a big game vs Oregon State and they might be looking ahead here to USC. Take the points.
UCLA +4.5 – 2.5 stars
Kansas State vs Iowa State +2 O/U 45
This is one heck of a low total! I don’t know why everyone likes Iowa State so much. The Clones beat a bad Iowa team and it took them all the way until the end of the game. Kansas State is a legit team this year and they already had their hiccup vs a 4-1 Tulane team. They have already beaten two very good Big 12 teams in Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State struggled mightily vs Kansas who is good this year, but not great. Iowa State’s loss vs Baylor isn’t aging to well with Baylor looking bad vs Oklahoma State last weekend. The Wildcats have a massive sack margin of seven, and are very stout in the trenches. Iowa State’s offensive line is very suspect and prone to giving up sacks and yards. The Wildcat’s also have a better red zone success rate both on offense and defense. I think they get the win so lay the small number.
Kansas State -2 – 2 stars
North Carolina vs Miami -4 O/U 65.5
After Miami’s performance against Middle Tennessee State, I do not know how this Miami team is laying chalk to a high powered offense like North Carolina. The Hurricanes haven’t played anyone except for Texas A&M and they lost that game out-right. The big mismatch here for me is against the pass. The Cane’s cannot stop the pass for the life ranking 95th in opponent Pass EPA where North Carolina ranks 8th in Pass EPA on offense. Miami’s strength of schedule only ranks 114th while having a net negative yards per play at -.34. North Carolina’s strength of schedule ranks 84th with a 1.28 net yards per play. The wrong team is favored here. I like the Tarheels to win outright.
Saturday MLB WILD CARD Round 100% Play of the Year + CFB American Athletics Conf. Game of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Side, CFB Top Total and 4 more best bets headline huge card. Comp play below.
The Saturday CFB Comp Play is on the Duke Blue Devils at 4:00 eastern. GA. Tech falls into a nasty system that has failed to cover 10 off times since 1990. We are playing against home dogs in this spread and totals range that are off a road dog win at +8 or more last week if they scored less than 21 in their prior game. The Yellow Jackets pulled a big upset last week. However, they take on a 4-1 Duke team that has covered 11 of 14 on the road vs a losing home team and 20 of 27 after allowing less than 100 rush yards. Tech has failed to cover 7 of 8 in this series and 11 of 12 off a win. They have also failed to cover 30 of 44 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Look for Duke to get the win and cover. On Saturday a Huge Card is up with the MLB Wild Card Round Play of the Year, the CFB American Athletic Conf. Play of the year,an Executive Level TIER 1 and many more powerful best bets. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the Comp play. Go with Duke. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU: 1-11-0
ATS: 1-10-1
Oct 07, 1989Saturday61989NAVYAIRhome7-3514.0-28-14.0LL
Oct 07, 1995Saturday71995NAVYVTCHhome0-1413.0-14-1.0LL
Oct 31, 1998Saturday101998NILTOLhome3-1613.0-130.0LP
Nov 21, 1998Saturday131998MARYNCSThome21-3510.0-14-4.0LL
Oct 30, 1999Saturday101999ILLPNSThome7-2716.0-20-4.0LL
Oct 13, 2001Saturday82001INDILLhome14-353.5-21-17.5LL
Oct 26, 2002Saturday102002KTKYGEOhome24-525.0-28-23.0LL
Oct 18, 2003Saturday92003NOTDUSChome14-458.0-31-23.0LL
Nov 03, 2007 Saturday 10 2007 COLO MIZ home 10-7 0-24 0-17 0-7 10-55 4.0 57.5 -45 -41.0 7.5 -16.8 24.2 L L O 0
Oct 17, 2009 Saturday 7 2009 WMCH CMCH home 3-10 10-17 3-0 7-7 23-34 7.0 57.5 -11 -4.0 -0.5 -2.2 1.8 L L U 0
Nov 05, 2016 Saturday 10 2016 BCOL LOU home 0-21 0-17 7-14 0-0 7-52 25.5 53.5 -45 -19.5 5.5 -7.0 12.5 L L O 0
Oct 13, 2018 Saturday 7 2018 IWST WVA home 13-7 7-7 0-0 10-0 30-14 4.5 54.5 16 20.5 -10.5 5.0 -15.5 W W U 0
Oct 08, 2022 Saturday 6 2022 GTCH DUKE home 3.5 55.0
After a 4-2 week last week we are back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are now 22-17 (+$1095, +1.3% CLV) in College Football and 6 plays locked in and 3 more games on the radar for the weekend! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Louisiana for a noon eastern kickoff against the LSU Tigers in Death Valley. Rocky top is off a bye after beating Florida 8-33 the week before and enter with a perfect 4-0 record while the Tigers come in with a 4-1 record after winning at Auburn last week 21-17. The key matchup in this game will be the potent Tennessee offense against the LSU defense. The Tigers weakness is throwing the football but they will be going up against Tennessee’s weakness on defense as they rank 128th while giving up 309.25 passing yards per game. Both teams look to run the ball first but could have some trouble as both defenses are stout against the run. This game will come down to red zone scoring and more specifically red zone touchdowns. Tennessee has scored 19 RZ TDs (9th in nation) and LSU has only given up 4 on D (6th). While LSU’s offense is not made up of many big plays, they will have the opportunity to compile yardage on the Vols defense that ranks 94th in the nation, allowing 407 yards per game. Overall, these teams are very evenly matched but in what should be a tight game, I would rather have Brian Kelly on my sideline than Josh Heupel. However, this is more of a situational play than anything. LSU at home is historically a tough place to play and Tennessee could easily be looking ahead to their matchup at home next week against Nick Saban and the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide. Getting a field goal here is too good to pass up and we played it earlier in the week for 2% of our bankroll. Take LSU +3
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