Over the course of the long 162-game regular season, it is possible to identify betting opportunities for certain clubs, based on the success of the starting pitchers, bullpen strategy and offensive production in certain situations. All of those factors can change in the postseason as teams usually shift to four-starter pitching rotations, which in turn impacts the dynamics of a club’s bullpen.
Momentum plays a huge role in how teams fare during the postseason. Baseball players are streaky, and sometimes the difference between winning and losing a series is which team is hotter. Certain top competitors and higher seeds might take their foot off the gas down the stretch. With a guaranteed playoff spot and home-field advantage secured, there’s little reason to exert 100% effort. Meanwhile, certain lower seeds are forced to scratch, claw, and fight their way into the playoffs. However, you also have to factor in that the higher seed has their guys on normal rest which could be an edge.
The significance of the starting pitching matchup, along with the strength of both bullpens cannot be overstated. A team that has a shaky bullpen is a major concern. It’s crucial to dive deeper into the pitching matchup, especially during the postseason. As I mentioned, many teams will cut a starting pitching rotation by one pitcher, many of its best arms will see more playing time. That means that certain players will see more wear and tear down the stretch of the postseason. Always check when the last time each starting pitcher took the mound.
When handicapping a postseason matchup, check to see if each team faced off in the regular season. While things change on a daily basis in the MLB, these past performances can provide a glimpse into the future. Also, having guys with postseason experience on the team who know how to handle themselves during this time can provide a big edge. Teams with postseason veterans on the team can give that squad better leadership.
During the playoffs, there are also certain scenarios to look for. Team A is up 3-1 in the 7-game series and saves their best arms in game 5 to set up the next 2 games of the series. Team A won the night before and threw their best arms out of the pen while Team B saved their best arms for the next game. Coaches don’t like to lose but great coaches know they have to mail in certain games to put them in better position for the next game(s). This is very important when playing totals. Watch coaches press conferences and read up on that team’s beat writers on Twitter to get a better idea of the game plan for the next game.
Bettors must also look for dramatic betting line movement on MLB postseason games. Playoff games see more action from the public and that can lead to wide and rapid swings in game betting lines. This might involve fading the public, following reverse line movement, and simply outworking other gamblers. There are far fewer games. The bookie has all his attention on just a few games. That results in tighter lines. Just as the teams themselves up the ante during this time of year, we need to also elevate the level of our handicapping. If there is not a desirable spot, we need to leave it alone.
The NHL is back!! The first game of the season takes place on October 7th in Prague, Czech Republic as part of the NHL Global Series. The Sharks and Predators will face off on back-to-back nights. While it isn’t the most glamorous matchup, it is regular-season hockey. Nashville will look to make the playoffs for the 9th consecutive season while the Sharks well….. we really don’t know what direction they’re heading.
These first few articles won’t be as long as we’re working with limited information. Also, to start the season I will be decreasing my unit size and I recommend you do the same as there’s more variance in October.
San Jose Sharks vs Nashville Predators
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
TV Coverage: ESPN+
San Jose Sharks: 0-0-0, — Pacific (0-0-0 Away)
Nashville Predators: 0-0-0, — Central (0-0-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
San Jose Sharks
+155
+165
+1.5 (-145)
o6.0 (-105)
Nashville Predators
-180
-195
-1.5 (+125)
u6.0 (-115)
Preview:
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks are one of the more interesting teams in the NHL and it’s not because of their on-ice talent. During the off-season, they made a bunch of leadership changes including a new GM and Head Coach. In terms of players, they traded Brent Burns to the Carolina Hurricanes. Burns had been with the organization since the 2011-12 season but was never able to recapture the great season he had in 2010-11. They did bring in a few new players such as Nico Sturm, Luke Kunin, Oskar Lindblom, Matt Benning, and Steven Lorentz who was part of the Brent Burns trade.
Last season, the Sharks struggled in all areas of the ice. Their offense wasn’t great outside of Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl who had solid seasons. On defense, they lacked depth, and even more so this season. In net, James Reimer, who has been rumored to be traded soon, was average with a +0.1 GSAx.
Their outlook for this season remains similar to last year. They have a few terrible contracts on the books that are preventing them to make any major moves. Their current season point total is set at 75.5 (-115/-115) which would be a slight decrease from last season when they had 77 points. San Jose finished 6th in the Pacific last year and I think they finish below that this year given the improvements other teams in the division made.
21-22 Season
GF/GP
2.57
30th
GA/GP
3.18
21st
PP%
19.0%
22nd
PK%
85.2%
2nd
SF/GP
29.3
26th
SA/GP
32.0
18th
Projected Lines:
Timo Meier
Tomas Hertl
Luke Kunin
Oskar Lindblom
Logan Couture
Kevin Lebanc
Noah Gregor
Nick Bonino
Matthew Nieto
Steven Lorentz
Nico Strum
Jonah Gadjovich
Scott Harrington
Erik Karlsson
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Mario Ferraro
Radim Simek
Matt Benning
James Reimer
Kappo Kahkonen
Nashville Predators
The Predators have been good but not great for the last eight seasons. Since 2018, they have yet to make it past the first round. While they’ve made the playoffs continuously they just don’t seem to have the roster that can compete for a Stanley Cup. Nashville made a few off-season moves adding Nino Niederreiter and Ryan McDonagh. They also were able to secure Filip Forsberg for the next 8 years.
Last year, Nashville finished 5th in the Central Division with 98 points. In the first round, they were without their backbone Juuse Saros and they fell apart getting swept by Colorado. Their main weakness last season was their defense which they improved with the addition of McDonagh. Nashville now has a solid top-4 that can hopefully provide some stability for this team.
Their current team total is set at 96.5 is which pretty much the number of points they finished with last season. While they didn’t make a ton of moves, they did get better with the moves they made. To be clear, this team also did not need to make a ton of moves either. While they do have a relatively tough division, I think we see this team exceed their point total from last year.
21-22 Season
GF/GP
3.20
13th
GA/GP
3.05
17th
PP%
24.4%
6th
PK%
79.2%
18th
SF/GP
29.7
24th
SA/GP
32.3
20th
Projected Lines:
Filip Forsberg
Mikael Granlund
Matt Duchene
Nino Niederreiter
Ryan Johansen
Kiefer Sherwood
Yakov Trenin
Colton Sissons
Tanner Jeannot
Cole Smith
Cody Glass
Eeli Tolvanen
Roman Kosi
Alexandre Carrier
Ryan McDonagh
Mattias Ekholm
Jeremy Lauzon
Dante Fabbro
Juuse Saros
Kevin Lankinen
Pick:
Nashville Predators 60 Minute Line (-115) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 0.50 Units
The Nashville Predators are a better team than the San Jose Sharks in all areas. They should be able to win this game in regulation against a far inferior opponent. These two teams faced off three times last year with Nashville winning each matchup. They outscored the Sharks 12-1 in those three games. Given the off-season additions for each team, Nashville is the only side to have gotten better.
If you’re looking for a Shots on Goal Prop with playable odds, I would target Matt Duchene over 2.5 SOG (-130) on DraftKings. He went over this number in two of their three matchups last season. Last year, he hit this line at a 62% rate. The Sharks also allowed the 26th most shots on goal to right wingers last season as well.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I stood on an island last week when I faded LSU on the road against Auburn, and a lot of my reasoning was confirmed. LSU’s offensive line is not just subpar; that unit is a straight up liability. Their RB room is simply not very talented, and we saw their secondary get decimated in what should’ve been a pretty easy matchup. Now, you have to face one of the best offenses in the country that has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker is phenomenal in every sense of the word; in addition to throwing for over 10 Y/A on the young season and being a threat with his legs, Hooker has a beatiful 34:3 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Vol. Tennessee can create explosive plays in a multitude of ways, and I think over time, they’ll simply outmatch this LSU defense.
LSU QB Jayden Daniels has been able to mask a lot of the Tigers’ issues with his ability as a runner, but he showed major flaws last week as a passer. In fact, Daniels has thrown for less than 6 Y/A in his 3 games vs Power 5 competition this season. He does not enter this game at 100% health after having to leave last week’s game which could hurt his abilities as a runner. I don’t always love Tennessee’s manically fast tempo because I think it extends games unnecessarily, but I actually think that works in their favor. Ultimately, I like the Vols to pull away and win this game by at least 7.
*CFB(1u): Washington State +12.5 @ USC–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
All offseason, the only thing this USC team heard was that Utah was their only real threat in the Pac12 race. Not only is that not true(the Trojans might not even be the best team in their own city), but that has the potential to make this an extreme “look ahead” spot. USC is an overrated commodity that will eventually expose themselves as their season plays out, and this could very well be their first crack.
Washington State is no slouch, plain and simple. The Cougars already have an outright road win at Wisconsin this year and played a clearly superior Oregon team down to the wire. Coming off a dominant win against Cal, it is clear that Washington State’s defense is far superior to USC’s. Specifically, the Cougars have been quite stout in their Front 7. USC has dominated inferior defenses like Stanford and Arizona State, but in their one true test on the road against Oregon State(who’s still not great defensively), that offense sputtered. RB Travis Dye is going to get his, but Caleb Williams has proven to be quite inconsistent early in his college career.
What ultimately gets me on this play is my utter disgust of USC’s defense. They’ve forced turnovers at an elite rate this year, but that’s about all you can really compliment them on. While they can take advantage of poor OL units, their back 7 is extremely vulnerable. I worry less about USC’s pass rush having an impact on this game given Washington State sticks to Air Raid tendencies and likes to get the ball out quick. Wazzu QB Cameron Ward has translated well to the P5 level after dominating the FCS ranks, and this is a matchup I expect him to take advantage of USC’s lack of discipline defensively.
*CFB(1u): BYU/Notre Dame UNDER 51–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
*CFB(1u): BYU +3.5 vs Notre Dame–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
This is obviously a neutral-site game being played in Las Vegas. BYU played in LV last year and is one of the oldest teams in the country, while Notre Dame has to make the cross-country trip led by their unproven 1st year HC. While the matchup sets up well for BYU as well, this is an element to the handicap I think is worth putting stock into.
BYU QB Jaren Hall is clearly the superior QB in this matchup(8.5 Y/A over the last 2 seasons). Additionally, Hall has far more playmakers to work with on the outside than Drew Pyne. While we did see Notre Dame get their offense going in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago(I was on the Irish that game), I think that has far more to say about the Tar Heels’ defensive issues and ND’s massive advantage in the trenches in that particular matchup. This is still only Drew Pyne’s 3rd career start; outside of TE Michael Mayer, I think the weapons he has at his disposal are incredibly mediocre.
I respect Notre Dame’s acumen in the trenches on both sides of the ball and think it will keep this a neck-and-neck game. Ultimately, I think each team will struggle to establish much of a run game, but BYU is more seasoned as far as creating explosive plays through the air. If you’re going to give me 3.5 points with the Cougars in this spot, I’ll take it all day. Still, I think this game is played in the low-20’s.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Boston College UNDER 48.5–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
On paper, this is not a good scheduling spot for Clemson. They just won a huge game against NC State but also have a tough road matchup in Tallahassee against the Noles next weekend. Not only that, but Boston College has hung neck-and-neck with Clemson each of the past 2 seasons, with the Golden Eagles holding Clemson to just 19 points in Death Valley last year. Ultimately, I expect this to be a very low-possession game. Boston College is well below average in the pace department despite playing from behind most of the season, and Clemson will be trying to get out of Chestnut Hill in quick order.
I know Boston College broke out of their funk with a win against Louisville last week, but they do not match up well with Clemson’s defense. Specifically, Boston College’s offensive line has been a train wreck this season; if you’re struggling to beat Rutgers and Virginia Tech up front, I have no confidence that they’ll step up against a borderline elite Clemson front 4. As a result of their issues up front, they’ve regressed in virtually every offensive department this year.
Call me crazy, but I think Boston College can get stops here. While they are unlikely to get much pressure on DJ Uiagalelei, I like BC at the second and third levels defensively. Clemson RB Will Shipley has run for less than 5 YPC against Power 5 competition, and even with Uiagaleilei’s improvements, he is still far from a world beater with his arm.
I envision a quick, 27-10 type of game that stays under the total.
We have a great show for you today! Las Vegas Cris comes back on to break down a HUGE NFL week 5 slate of games! Kiev is on Vacation in Playa Del Carmen but hasn’t missed a beat when it comes to the huge weekend in sports! First, the guys talk a little bit about how the season is going. Next, Cris and Kiev @OBKiev get into the full NFL slate of games with some leans and FREE PLAYS for NFL week 5! After that, Kiev gives out some college football plays for week 6! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Big game for UCF with major motivation to give the home team something to get excited about in a state going through a lot right now. SMU had that article about all the transfers this week but that could be a good thing for the locker room with a team that has had a couple of tough losses so far this season. The Mustangs had a chance to win that game at UMD, which was a tough travel spot, and hung with a good TCU team. I like SMU to get this one as they have the rest advantage, a relentless offense, and market support bringing this line down to +2.5. SMU is in a tough spot again because of the motivation UCF will have in their conference home opener to give Floridians something to get excited about. So, I will look again to a standalone game, primetime under.
UCF’s defense can’t be ignored. The Knights held Louisville and FAU to less than 2 TD’s, that has me looking toward the under. Their offensive numbers also are worth considering as they come in as they come in 6th in rush yds/ game so they should be able to keep this SMU team off the field. We also have some reverse total movement as the majority of money is on the over (69% as of this article), yet the total has ticked down from 64.5. The under is a tough bet in any SMU game and if they do get a lead with their 9th ranked pass offense, we could see UCF open up their pass game and this thing could take off on us. Last year this was a 55-28 SMU win.
But, there is a trend in favor of the under… In the last two seasons, when SMU has a game totaled at 63 or higher, they are 4-8 O/U, 1-3 O/U in conference games and so far this season they are 1-3 O/U with that total parameter. UCF has gone under in their L2 games with the total at 63 or higher. This is a small contrarian look to the under for me, with two teams I have pretty evenly matched. The only shot in my opinion UCF has, is to look to control clock as much as possible. We are seeing some buy back to the over today, so waiting until closer to game time is not the worst idea if you also are willing to take a chance on this under.
Hi all! We had a great week in CFB Week 5 so looking for a repeat performance and, like I said, a steady flow of improvement from how we started. That should continue.
As far as the NBA goes, I’m not a big preseason bettor but I’m happy to give some lean considerations. I’ll also include a few futures if I see value but, again, it’s not my forte. The season is starting on October 18th and if you’re not signed on for the full season, you should be.
We won over 70 units last season and over 60 units the season before, hitting at 57% in over 800 plays. In case you’re unaware, that just doesn’t happen. Variance will happen, regression may hit at times, but we’ll thrive in the NBA again.
Onto Week 6 CFB Picks:
CFB Week 6 (22-24-2, -7.96 units):
Tennessee/LSU under 65 (-105), to win 1.5 units
No one can convince me that this game will be high scoring. This is a marquee rivalry game and although Tennessee can put up points, LSU is at home and they’ll be embattled to keep this close. Going with the under.
Liberty -24.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Nice friendly smash spot for Liberty, who needs to keep winning to stay in their conference race. If they don’t let down, they’ll roll.
Oklahoma St -9 (110), to win 1.5 units
The Cowboys are heavily favored but not enough, if you ask me. In a game that has a total of 70 against an opponent who’s worthy on offense but not so much on defense, I see Ok-St pulling ahead in the second half. I have them as -14.
Tulsa -5.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Navy has yet to score more than 17 pts in regulation this year– they’re very stingy on defense but I think Tulsa and their new dynamic QB will pull ahead in the passing game.
Alabama 1H -14 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Texas A&M just isn’t going in the right direction and in Tuscaloosa, this is a bad, bad setup for the Aggies in a spot that we all know Saban really cares about. I hate that the Aggies lost last week and maybe that means they fight hard overall, but I love Bama to take charge early in an aggressive fashion. Bryce Young or not, too much talent, too much fire.
Washington -13.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Big time “get up” game for Washington after their let-down last week against UCLA.
BYU +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
An ugly win for BYU last week and they know it – they may lose but this should be close throughout. Notre Dame just isn’t very good, despite a good performance 2 weeks ago. I’ll be sprinkling on BYU winning, too.
UCLA +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Utah is a very dangerous team and could win, but this is a great setup for the Bruins, at home, with a very able run defense. Take out Utah’s star athlete and it’s a different game. I think it’s close throughout.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley goes over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for the weekend slate. Get ready for your Week 5 bets and oh yea, the NBA is around the corner, too!
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
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Wednesday card has the MLB Last home Game Play of the year (4-1 last 5Y) backed with a perfect Game 162 System, We also have the Triple Perfect CFB Top Play total. Champions League Pay below.
The Champions league comp play is on RB Leipzig at 12:45 eastern. Leipzig is a top level German team that has been exposed to much tougher competition than their counter parts from the Scottish league. Celtic is solid in league play but will be making a big jump here. Leipzig in unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home and they found the back of the net 12 times in those 5 matches. Celtic may be without one of their key defender, but even so, they have won just 1 of their last 6 European road matches. Look for RB Leipzig to emerge on top. On Hump Day Rob Brings the Bang with his Final Home game Play of the year in MLB a play which has hit in 4 of the last 5 years and is backed with a Game 162 specific system. There is also the Triple Perfect Top Play total in College Football. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on and get both now. For the Soccer Play. Go with RB Leipzig. Rob V- GC Sports
What a wild week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Mackenzie Hughes defeated Sepp Straka in a two-hole playoff capturing his 2nd career PGA Tour victory. With that win, Hughes ended his drought of 155 professional starts without a win. Sepp Straka on the other hand has now lost two playoffs in his last four PGA Tour starts.
This week, we have a better field with President’s Cup winners Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa competing. Speaking of the President’s Cup, Tom Kim will be making his first start of the season after a thrilling performance at Quail Hollow for the International Team. Sungjae Im, who was also on that International side, will look to defend his title at TPC Summerlin after winning by four strokes last year. This event has provided us with some fireworks in the past with three of the last five editions coming down to a playoff.
It’s very top-heavy in terms of odds providing some great value down the board. However, course history has proven to play a major role here making some of the favorites this week hard to pass up. Let’s get into the Shriners Children’s Open as we look to rebound from last week’s struggles.
No other greens have dominator bentgrass greens. They installed new greens and fairways this year. Previously, they had A1/A4 bentgrass greens and 419 bermudagrass fairways.
Comparable Average Green Size (7,400 sq. ft.):
Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – 7,500 sq. ft. – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Riviera Country Club – 7,500 sq. ft. – The Genesis Invitational
The Shiners Children’s Open was founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic. This event changed names throughout the years but since 2008, Shriner’s Children Hospitals has remained the official sponsor. When they took over the rights that year, TPC Summerlin also became the host course and the event has been held there every year since. Throughout the entirety of the event, it’s always been held in the Las Vegas surrounding area.
TPC Summerlin opened in 1991 and was originally designed by Booby Wood Throughout the years it’s undergone several minor renovations but last year, the greens and fairways were completely replaced. The course has been shut down since April 15th with the official re-opening of the course being this week’s event.
At the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open, the greens were A1/A4 bentgrass and the fairways were 419 bermudagrass. This year, the greens were changed to Dominator bentgrass and the fairways were changed to Bandera bermudagrass. Looking at the upcoming PGA Tour schedule, this is the only course that features this unique type of putting surface. Other courses have pure bentgrass greens but none that feature this specific seed of bermudagrass.
72-Hole Record: 260, Ryan Moore (2012), Webb Simpson (2013), Sungjae Im (2021)
18-Hole Record (TPC Summerlin): 60, J.J. Henry (Rd 1, 2013), Rod Pampling (Rd 1, 2016)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 that plays 7,255 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The length of the course along with drier conditions have allowed short hitters to thrive here. Water does come into play on four holes but it’s mainly on the closing stretch.
The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 239 yards. Last year, three of the four Par 3’s had a scoring average over par with No. 14 being the only outlier.
No. 17 is a challenging downhill Par 3 that has a green heavily guarded by bunkers and water. On this hole Par is a good score with more bogeys being recorded than birdies last year.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest listed at 341 with the longest being No. 3, just short of 500 yards (492).
No. 18 is a well-designed closing hole that forces players into hitting a difficult tee shot. They’ll have to carry a drive over a wash but be careful not to go too far as water does come into play. On their approach, players will face water short left and countless bunkers around the green. It’s a great way to end the tournament as players’ scores affect their approach to this hole.
The three Par 5’s are No. 9, 13, and 16. Only one of these Par 5’s is over 600 yards (No. 13). In terms of difficulty, they all had scoring averages below par with No 9 being the easiest. Last year, that was the only hole on the course to not have a double-bogey recorded on it.
No. 16 is the shortest of the three Par 5’s and is reachable with two good shots. It’s a little tight off the tee with trees lining both sides of the fairway. An accurate approach shot is crucial here as water does come into play short left and bunkers guarding the back of the green.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Patrick Cantlay (+750), has never finished worse than T8 at this event. He won the Shiners Children’s Open back in 2017, finished runner-up in 2018, and lost in a playoff in 2019. Cantlay skipped last year’s event but will look to pick up where he left off. He played fairly well at the President’s Cup and finished T7 at the TOUR Championship in his last official event.
Sungjae Im (+1400), is the defending champion and a player who’s had tremendous success here at TPC Summerlin. Outside of winning this event last year, he’s finished T13 and T15 in his two other appearances. The last time we saw Sungjae was at the President’s Cup. He had a rough start but was able to win with Munoz in Round 4 and defeat Cameron Young in the singles on Sunday. In his last official start on the PGA Tour, he finished T2 at the TOUR Championship.
Max Homa (+2000), is coming off an undefeated record at the President’s Cup. Before that, he successfully defended his title at the Fortinet Championship. The issue for Max Homa is his course history. In his four appearances at TPC Summerlin, he has never made it to the weekend.
Joohyung “Tom” Kim (+2200), put on an absolute show at the President’s Cup and is a budding superstar. He won his first PGA Tour event last year at the Wyndham Championship and has ridden that momentum since. Tom Kim will be making his debut at the Shiners Children’s Open this year but looks to be a great course fit.
Previous Winners in the field; Sungjae Im (’21), Martin Laird (’20, ’09), Patrick Cantlay (’17), Ben Martin (’14), and Ryan Moore (’12)
Notable Withdraws: Trey Mullinax, Davis Riley
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Patrick Cantlay (+700): 1/2/2/T8
Sungjae Im (+1400): T15/T13/1
Matthew NeSmith (+6600): T18/T8/T14
Adam Hadwin (+6600): T10/MC/T27/T4/T34/T6
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Max Homa (+2000): T30/MC/MC/MC/MC
Keith Mitchell (+6600): MC/MC/MC/MC
Zac Blair (+20000): T75/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Tyler Duncan (+25000): MC/MC/MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Sungjae Im (-24)
Price: 33-1
2020: Martin Laird (-23)
Price: 225-1
2019: Kevin Na (-23)
Price: 70-1
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
Price: 14-1
2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
Price: 20-1
Picks (Outrights):
Sungjae Im (+1400) – FanDuel
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
I’m usually not a fan of backing someone at these odds but as hard as I tried, I can’t leave Sungjae off the card this week. His course history speaks for itself and on top of that, he’s been in great form lately. In his last five starts on Tour, he’s finished T2 three times! We already had Homa win back-to-back events and Sungjae certainly looks to be able to keep that trend going.
Aaron Wise (+3100) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 8.06 Units
Wise has competed at TPC Summerlin six times with three top-15 finishes during that span. He’ll be making his first start of the season but look to be primed for a hot start based on his last few finishes. We know he’s great off the tee and has an iron game to match. The issue with Wise has been his short game and ability to putt. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in five of his six starts here. His play around the green also seems to thrive at TPC Summerlin gaining strokes in four of his six appearances. If Wise can keep it in the fairway off the tee, he has shown he has everything else needed to win.
Emiliano Grillo (+4000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Emiliano Grillo has been playing some great golf as of late finishing T25 and T5 in the first two events of the season. The only issue with him has been his play around the green. If we look at past winners we’ve seen that their short game hasn’t been the key to victory. He has everything you’re looking for this week ranking well in every key category. In terms of course history, it’s not great, but he has shown he can putt well here gaining strokes in his last two starts at TPC Summerlin. He usually has one or two “blowup” rounds that take him out of contention so if he can avoid that, I like his chances. Also, I’m fully aware that backing Grillo can be an absolute nightmare so I apologize in advance.
Andrew Putnam (+9000) – Bet365
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Putnam has been trending upwards finishing T43 and T30 in his first two starts of the season. He has a great course history as well finishing inside the top 20 in two of his last three starts at this event. Overall, he ranks well in nearly every category besides one, off the tee. Putnam has not gained strokes off the tee in his last two events and has never gained strokes off the tee at this course. The one positive is his accuracy but his lack of distance compared to other players is significant. Given that it is a short course and the importance of accuracy over distance this week, he should have a better chance to compete.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.13 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tom Kim (+140) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Tom Kim enters this event primed for a breakout season. He’s been in great form finishing 7/1/T13/T54 in his last four starts on Tour. Kim has yet to compete at TPC Summerlin but appears to be a great course fit on paper. In his last seven events, he’s gained strokes on approach, and in eight of his last nine has gained strokes off the tee. His putting can be his downfall as we saw in the BMW Championship losing 1.31 strokes. If he can putt even moderately well and lose less than half a stroke on the green, he should do well.
Tom Hoge (+220) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Tom Hoge is a veteran of the Shriners Children’s Open competing in his event six times. He struggled in the begging at TPC Summerlin finishing T67 in his first two starts. However, in his last four starts here he seems to have figured out the course a bit finishing T7/MC/T24/T14. In his lone start of the season, he finished T12 at the Fortinet Championship. He gained strokes in every major category besides around the green. Hoge’s short game has always been an issue for him so it’s nothing out of the ordinary. If we look at Hoge’s profile he ranks well in approach and tee to green which is the two big stats this week. His putting is inconsistent, to say the least, but he’s gained strokes on the green in three of his last four appearances at TPC Summerlin and three of his last four starts on Tour.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Adam Hadwin (+100) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Just like Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin is a veteran of TPC Summerlin. Based off his finishing positions, he seems to thrive here. In his six appearances at the Shriners Children’s Open, he had three top 10s. Last week, he made his first start of the season finishing T45 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. His tee game was out of sorts which is a little unusual for him and slightly worrisome coming into the week. Despite that, his approach play has been fantastic ranking 26th on Tour. His putting has also been great at TPC Summerlin gaining strokes on the green in every start here.
Matthew Nesmith (+120) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
I was looking at playing him as a T20 but at plus money odds, I’ll take him to finish T40 instead. This may come back to haunt me but I feel much safer with this positioning. Last week, Matthew Nesmith made his first appearance of the season finishing T9 at the Country Club of Jackson. His ball-striking ability was on full display last week gaining 1.49 strokes on approach. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in his last four events which is crucial this week. Nesmith also has a great course history here finishing T18/T8/T14 in his three starts at TPC Summerlin.
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Shriners Children’s Open: 5.13 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
