Last year we released our picks here, at TheOddsBreakers where it all started, before every slate of NFL action. If you followed our picks, you would have hit at 68% ATS and you would have won a TON of money, no doubt.
Here’s the Week 2 selections from FarleyBets and BohBohBets, let’s gooo!!!
Entry 1:
Entry 2:
TNF was a rollercoaster ride, Chiefs were the wrong side…. Chargers let them hang around per usual. Feel like it should have cashed… but the backdoor was wide open and clearly that was more important for Staley than his Qb’s health. But I regress…that’s betting. Looking ahead to a MNF game that is close to my heart, but as always I bet with my brain and not my fandom.
Vikings +2 -105 2 units
Kirk Cousins is 2-9 on MNF, Oh no! We will hear that non-stop leading into Monday night and I am fading that angle hard. This is a Vikings team that is loaded; as they were last year… but now have the correct coaching with the talent involved. We saw Justin Jefferson running completely unchecked and free last week against Green Bay. Looked just like Cooper Kupp, completely wide open and doing whatever he wants. Let’s not forget where new head coach Kevin O’Connell came from…..the Rams. That was not a fluke situation last week, we are going to see that type of production all year. Now they are facing a team in Philadelphia who historically has been notorious for allowing Wr’s To go unchecked and having secondary issues giving up big plays and not making tackles. Specifically against, you guessed it Kirk Cousins. He balls out against Philly. He has 21 Td’s to only 6 Ints, a 67.2 completion percentage, and a rating of 104.9 on average for those 9 games. Let’s take it a step further and reduce the sample size to the last 3 match ups… 2 with Vikings 1 with the Redskins. He has 8 Td’s and 2 Ints, a 77.3 completion percentage average, and a rating of 119.5 on average for those 3 games. Like I said he BALLS OUT AGAINST PHILLY.
Now yes Philadelphia has their weapons and are certainly capable of moving the ball, specifically on the ground. This offense isn’t built to air the ball out downfield 40-50 yards… at least not yet. It’s a committee backfield focusing on the run, hitting short yard high percentage passes, keeping themselves out of long yardage situations, and being bailed out with Jalen Hurt’s running capability when plays break down. Now we saw it last season in the playoffs against Tampa, once the run game is stopped and they have to rely on Hurts arm… it falls apart, and it falls apart hard. This Eagles team is built to take a lead and control the game….. they do not do well playing from behind. Vikings will come to Philly Monday night take a lead and make Hurts beat them with his arm. That will not happen. Vikings +2.
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Oklahoma vs Nebraska +11.5 O/U 65
This play is not only situational, it is also based on straight power. Did Nebraska look terrible their last two games? Yes they did, but I also would like to ask who Oklahoma is exactly played themselves. As we know, Scott Frost was finally fired from Nebraska after losing to a hot Georgia Southern team under new coach Clay Helton. Southern found a weakness and exploited it. Now when a coach gets fired, it is a bet-on spot for the very next game. The reason for this is because the players on the team do not want to play bad, and show that their whole program losing was on them. We also have to look at the fact that Nebraska was at least in both games this year during their those losses. Each one came down to the last minute with luck being involved. What has Oklahoma done with a new coach in Brett Venebles to go on the road and lay double digits to a team that almost beat them last year? Well, the Sooners beat UTEP and Kent State both at home. Big freaking Deal! Last year I believe it was Casey Thompson that almost upset Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. He threw for 5 TDs that game. Now that he transferred to Nebraska, I believe he will once again rise up to the occasion. Last year, Nebraska kept this game close and out-gained Oklahoma in yards. My power ratings still have Nebraska high enough to only lose this game by about 5 points. Take the smelly dog here and they might even win outright.
Nebraska +11.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
SMU vs Maryland -3.5 O/U 73
If you like offense, you might want to tune into this game. Maryland is a team with some serious talent on offense with veteran Taulia Tagovailoa leading the way. This team is already averaging over 43 points per game, but their defense has always been suspect giving up over 30 last year. The same can be said about high flying SMU who also returns their quarterback in Tanner Mordecai. SMU ranks 4th in all of the FBS in tempo and they are averaging over 45 points per game and gave up over 28 per game in an easier conference last year. See what I am getting at? I think this is going to be a shootout for the ages. Last year, Maryland has scored over 35 points 5 times while SMU did it 8 times. Both of these teams will be playing at a fast pace and racking up the score. Both teams rank in the top 7 in yards per play. I do not think that it will take the full game to get to 73 so I am taking the over here and I would not be surprised if both teams get into the 40s.
Over 73 – 2 stars
BYU vs Oregon -3.5 O/U 58
I don’t care that Oregon beat Eastern Washington 70-14, all I remember is how Bo Nix looked vs Georgia, and now he has to face a BYU team that has returned all their talent and is looking for a big statement. It wasn’t long ago when BYU rose up to the Pac-12 and beat Utah and ASU just last year. The big matchup advantage here is the passing game for BYU. This Cougars team ranks 29th in passing play success rate while Oregon ranks 125th in defense against the pass. I also like the fact that BYU can step it up on defense when needed. I think that this will be another close game. Even without the talent, BYU is the better team right now and I am not a big believer in Oregon QB Bo Nix. My power number in this game is Pick-em, but I will give Oregon a little boost for BYU going to overtime vs Baylor. I think -2 is the appropriate spread here.
BYU +3.5 for 2 stars
Saturday card is Loaded with our CFB Dog of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Side, the Unsurpassed “TOTALS” Collection Total, and 3 Top TV 5* Sides all from early season systems. We also have The National League Game of The Month and Soccer. Comp play below.
The College Football Comp play for Saturday is on Notre Dame at 2:30 eastern. The Irish were stunned last week losing at home to Marshall and as a result now qualify in the rare system below which plays on Home favorites off a previous home favored loss at -19 or higher and a loss prior to the game. These teams are a perfect 6-0 to the spread since 2000. Notre Dame was down just 4 on the road at Ohio St just 2 weeks ago and have plenty of fire power to roll a Cal team that has just 9 returning starters and has failed to cover 5 of 6 on the road vs a team off a favored loss. The Irish has covered 8 of 10 in Non conference and also 8 of 10 after allowing 170 or less pass yards. Look for Notre Dame to get the cover. On Saturday we look to continue our hot run in CFB with the Underdog Game Of The Year headlining a card that has an Executive Level TIER 1 Side and our Unsurpassed Collection TOP Totals play. There are also 3 more top 5* System Plays, the N.L. Game of the Month and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue to cash in all sports. For the Free play. Lay it with the Irish. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 6-0-0
ATS: 6-0-0
Team 31.0
Opp 15.7
Oct 14, 2000 pro Saturday 8 2000 MIAO BOWL home 24-10 -13.5 14 0.5 W W
Oct 13, 2007 pro Saturday 7 2007 SMIS SMU home 0-0 21-0 0-0 7-7 28-7 -10.0 55.5 21 11.0 -20.5 -4.8 -15.8 W W U 0
Sep 18, 2010 pro Saturday 3 2010 VTCH ECAR home 7-10 14-14 14-3 14-0 49-27 -20.0 60.5 22 2.0 15.5 8.8 6.8 W W O 0
Sep 17, 2011 pro Saturday 3 2011 MIN MIAO home 3-3 10-7 3-6 13-7 29-23 -4.5 47.0 6 1.5 5.0 3.2 1.8 W W O 0
Sep 14, 2019 pro Saturday 3 2019 INST EKY home 3-0 7-0 0-7 9-0 19-7 -10.5 53.0 12 1.5 -27.0 -12.8 -14.2 W W U 0
Nov 09, 2019 pro Saturday 11 2019 PRVW AKPB home 0-0 16-0 7-7 14-13 37-20 -15.5 70.0 17 1.5 -13.0 -5.8 -7.2 W W U 0
Sep 17, 2022 pro Saturday 3 2022 NOTD CAL home
As of Wednesday 9/14/22
Sharp money on:
Sharp NFL Totals:
Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer. Our record this season so far is 0-1
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 13-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Matt Ryan, QB: $5,500. While I don’t think the Colts will throw quite as much as they did in Week 1, Ryan is a solid value here against a Jacksonville team the Colts always seem to be in a battle with. This Jags defense got torched for 313 and 4 TDs by Carson Wentz last week. I think the potential is there for a solid day from the savvy veteran as long as the Colts aren’t blowing them out by the end of the first half.
Saquon Barkley, RB: $7,300. Maybe this is my version of Week 1 overreactions playing into this pick, but I was all over him where he was going in fantasy drafts also. Barkley when healthy is the most difficult running back to prepare for in the NFL. He had 194 all-purpose yards last week and now gets a Panthers defense who gave up 187 yards and 2 TDs to Browns RBs in Week 1. How could you not want Saquon this week.
Josh Jacobs, RB: $5,800. I fully believe the Cardinals are in trouble. It started with the Murray contract controversy. It’s now grown with a lack of player respect toward Kingsbury. It’s accelerated with the injuries. This defense is going to give up a bunch of points to solid offenses. Jacobs only hauled the rock 10 times, but gained 57 yards in Week 1. With the Raiders expected to be in front his role should be more front and center against Arizona.
Jerry Jeudy, WR: $5,600. Jeudy hauled in 4 of 7 targets for 102 yards and a TD against the SeaTurkeys in Week 1. Russell Wilson and the Broncos moved the ball with ease until they got to the goal line and I expect Wilson and his receiving core to have a big day again Sunday against the Texans and the defense that just let Matt Ryan throw for 352.
Curtis Samuel, WR: $4,600. Samuel played a versatile role lining up in both the slot and the backfield for the Commanders on Sunday. He led the team with 11 targets and hauled in 8 of them for 55 yards and a touchdown. He should continue to be Carson Wentz’s possession receiver of choice Sunday against a Lions defense that got dominated by AJ Brown. Look for McLaurin for some big plays, but Samuel will be the focus of moving the football.
Cooper Kupp, WR: $9,900. Yes the price is outrageous and it means I wont have Colts WRs to pair with Ryan, but I think the rest of this lineup is strong enough where I’ll be ok without the mini stack. Let’s see, Kupp caught 13 of 15 targets for 128 and a score. The Falcons gave up 7 for 114 and 5 for 57 to Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas last week with 2 scores. Kupp is gonna feast again.
Darren Waller, TE: $5,600. The total for this game is at 51.5 so there should be plenty of points to go around. Adams will be the primary target, and the Raiders will likely run some more as I said with the Jacobs selection, but I think they will try and get Waller some more looks as well. 4 catches for 79 is nothing to sneeze at, but how about 6 for 101 and a score??
Greg Dortch, Flex: $3,500. Back to the same game, but on the other side. Looking for plenty of come from behind pass plays late from the Cards. Dortch will benefit again from Hopkins’ and Rondale Moore’s absences. He’s the number two behind Hollywood Brown right now, and he’s getting the softer coverage of the two. With 7 catches on 9 targets in Week 1 this is a huge potential value.
Bengals, DST: $2,200. While the Bengals defense was not overly impressive against the Steelers recording only 1 sack and not forcing any turnovers, they are cheap this week. They held the Steelers mostly in check. This is going to be a DST used in likely around 50+% of all lineups. And that’s ok. At this price against the Cowboys and backup Cooper Rush we want them in there. The Boys couldn’t move the ball when Prescott was in the game as the line is banged up and the weapons are older and fewer. Rush us really gonna struggle. I’m all in on the Bengals to blast the Boys. I’d be shocked if Dallas finds a way to 17 points. Plus, Rush is gonna turn it over.
I bring a MLB record of 157-144-6, +6.57u into this Friday night slate and have 3 selections to kick off the weekend. To receive a text if I make any additions to Week 3 CFB card, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Red Sox -1.5(-105) vs Royals–6:10 PM CT
Red Sox SP Michael Wacha has been phenomenal at Fenway Park this year, bringing a 1.79 ERA and 0.90 WHIP into tonight’s start. This is a very favorable matchup facing a Royals offense that looked lifeless while getting swept in Minnesota earlier this week. Since July 1st, KCR holds a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties away from their home park. I see a clear path for Wacha to continue his home success tonight.
It has clearly been a disappointing year for the Red Sox, but I still think there is enough firepower in their lineup to take advantage of favorable matchups. Royals SP Jonathan Heasley is utterly atrocious, holding a 1.59 WHIP and 1:1 K/BB ratio on the road this year. Heasley has also allowed 1.9 HR/9 this season, something that likely won’t play well at Fenway Park.
The Royals have far-and-away the worst bullpen in baseball. With the Sox coming on an off day, they’ll have a major advantage in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Rangers/Rays F5 OVER 3.5(-120)–6:10 PM CT
Rays SP Corey Kluber is well past his prime and has been very hit-or-miss for the Rays this season. His velocity is down over 4 mph from what is was during his prime in Cleveland, and he’s allowing more HR’s than at any other point in his career. This Rangers offense is sneaky, holding a 112 wRC+ vs righties on the road since July 1st. They have scored 35 runs over their last 6 games, making this anything but an easy matchup for Kluber.
Rangers SP Martin Perez has somehow skated by with a sub-3.00 ERA this year despite holding a 1.23 WHIP. Give him credit for escaping damage, but that WHIP shows that the potential for damage is pretty prevalent. The Rays put up 11 runs in Toronto yesterday and have actually been quite good in this role; since July 1st, they hold a stunning 142 wRC+ vs lefties at the Trop.
F5 totals at 3.5 should be reserved for top-of-the-line pitching matchups and/or putrid offensive matchups. We’re not getting either of those situations here.
*MLB(0.62u): Phillies F5 ML(+160) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Max Fried is a top-of-the-line arm that limits homers at an elite rate, but the Phillies have handled him well this year. In 2 starts(12 innings), Fried has yielded 5 ER and 16 baserunners to this Phillies lineup. Despite a loss in Miami yesterday, I would say this Phillies lineup is in good current form having scored over 5 runs/game over their last 7 games. Since July 1st, the Phils also rank 3rd in baseball with a 126 wRC+ vs lefties away from their home ballpark. I like Fried in a lot of spots, but this is not one of them.
Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has struggled at home this year, but his road numbers are quite stout(2.76 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9). Suarez produces over twice as many ground balls as fly balls and limits hard contact quite well. The Braves offense deteriorated greatly on their recent 8 game road trip, and since July 1st, they hold a pretty pedestrian 103 wRC+ vs lefties at home.
This is a lot more competitive of a matchup than many would be willing to admit. Given the Braves’ massive edge in the bullpen, however, this will remain a F5 sprinkle.
As of Wednesday 9/14/22
Sharp money on:
Sharp Totals:
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Key Numbers In College Football by Nick Hub
If your handicapping and betting without factoring in key numbers, your doing it wrong and working at a disadvantage. Key numbers are a very important part of betting college football as they refer to the most common margin of victory and game total scoring (as seen in the charts below). The most significant numbers are 3 and 7. It’s why there’s such a perceived value when you get a team at -2.5 or -6.5 when betting a favorite and +3.5 and +7.5 when betting the dog. Keep this in mind when placing your bets. Getting a number below the key number as a favorite or a number above as a dog could be the difference between a win or loss. It is also worth noting that it takes more money/bets for books to move off a key number.
In the second chart below are the key numbers in total game scoring. If you play totals in college football, this chart is very important and will tell you whether to fire on a bet or wait. If your number doesn’t get there, then pass! If you are betting college football, print this article and hang these charts at your desk or wherever you do you betting. I hope this helps you beat the books!
Margin of victory, by frequency (2005-2022)
| Margin | Occurrence | Pct. |
| 3 | 1118 | 8.98% |
| 7 | 937 | 7.53% |
| 14 | 525 | 4.22% |
| 10 | 521 | 4.19% |
| 21 | 446 | 3.58% |
| 4 | 423 | 3.4% |
| 1 | 420 | 3.38% |
| 17 | 406 | 3.26% |
| 6 | 361 | 2.9% |
| 24 | 346 | 2.78% |
| 5 | 320 | 2.57% |
| 28 | 315 | 2.53% |
| 2 | 312 | 2.51% |
| 18 | 309 | 2.48% |
| 8 | 287 | 2.31% |
| 11 | 275 | 2.21% |
| 31 | 244 | 1.96% |
| 20 | 239 | 1.92% |
| 25 | 227 | 1.82% |
| 35 | 208 | 1.67% |
| 13 | 207 | 1.66% |
| 27 | 193 | 1.55% |
*courtesy of cleanuphitter.com
Game total scoring, by frequency (2005-2022)
| Total | Occurrence | Pct. |
| 55 | 429 | 3.45% |
| 51 | 352 | 2.83% |
| 45 | 330 | 2.65% |
| 41 | 325 | 2.61% |
| 48 | 325 | 2.61% |
| 52 | 325 | 2.61% |
| 58 | 315 | 2.53% |
| 59 | 307 | 2.47% |
| 44 | 305 | 2.45% |
| 65 | 270 | 2.17% |
| 37 | 260 | 2.09% |
| 47 | 254 | 2.04% |
| 69 | 248 | 1.99% |
| 49 | 246 | 1.98% |
| 62 | 241 | 1.94% |
| 61 | 234 | 1.88% |
| 66 | 227 | 1.82% |
| 38 | 223 | 1.79% |
| 54 | 218 | 1.75% |
| 63 | 209 | 1.68% |
| 34 | 204 | 1.64% |
| 57 | 204 | 1.64% |
| 56 | 190 | 1.53% |
*courtesy of cleanuphitter.com
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