This one hurts. Chris Paul was one of my favorite players growing up, but his spiral is apparent. CP3 started the ’21-22 season(Oct-Feb16) averaging 14.9 PPG, on 11.5 attempts good for .487 FG% with a .330 3PT%. Paul had a shooting hand injury his in mid-February and never returned to form(also may have had a hamstring injury, that was a bit unclear but wildly speculated). CP3 was out roughly one calendar month. In his 7 regular season game return, he averaged 13.1 PPG on 9.9 attempts good for .551 FG% with a .176 3PT%(FG went up because he took less 3’s and more inside shots).
He was in line with his career True Shooting % average and down about 2 full attempts from career in ’21-22. This season in 3 games, (yes it is early but his game seems to have fallen off a cliff) his TS% is .386% and he is down almost 4 attempts a game. Not to mention he got benched.
This season, CP3 is 1/11 from deep. averaging 7.7 ppg. 6,10,7 are his point totals by game. His 10 point game, he had 8 points in regulation and 2 in OT. In regulation he is averaging 7 points good for 291 FG%. Paul’s per36 has him at 8.4 PPG. He just can’t score effectively anymore.
CP3 is still in the upper echelon of passers in the association (10.7 APG). His per36 is second best of his career. Monty Williams might just lean into him setting up passes for Booker at this point who is off to an insanely hot start (almost .100 better this year compared to last in both FG% and TS%). That will cool off mostly because he is shoot .529 % from deep, but I don’t think that changes vs the Warriors.
Warriors have given up the following to opposing starting *point guards this season:
Westbrook – 19 (shot .583% FG and as much hate as Russ gets he is still more athletic and better at getting to the rim than CP3, he just can’t shoot with any range)
Beverley – 3 (20% on 5 attempts)
KCP – 17 (shot 50% on 14 attempts, CP3 won’t get 14 attempts)
Fox – 26 (lowest total of the season on 20 attempts, high tempo game)
Take CP3 Under 13.5 Points -125 1 Unit (BetMGM) – I am already seeing this at 12.5 on other books. (Fanduel) You probably won’t get 13.5 again if he goes under again.
The Wizards are one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA in the 1Q, they’re at home, they’re trying to run the floor at a faster pace and I don’t think the Pistons will be able to slow them down. They have a better roster and a sneaky good defense so far and I think they’ll gain an early margin in this contest. Detroit likes to claw their way back into games so just going with this 1Q line.
Mavs -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Tough road game for the Mavs but they have 3 days of rest in between their last game and this one and if I was a betting man (oh wait, I am), I’d wager on Zion not playing today after suffering a hip contusion in his last contest. Brandon Ingram will also be out of this one, he’s under concussion protocol, while we witnessed the full potential of Christian Wood and a revamped Mavericks team last Saturday when they smashed the Grizzlies. The Pelicans are a growing team and they’re awesome when fully healthy but this ain’t it. Taking the Mavericks to get a win by margin on the road.
Warriors 1H ML (+115), to win 1.15 units
The Warriors are running the floor at a faster pace this season and they’re scoring an outlandish 67 ppg in the first half, easily #1 in the NBA. The Suns will experience some regression this year IMO and if they would have faced this well-oiled Warriors team in the playoffs last year, I think they would have been cooked real quick. The Warriors just match up well against a small Phoenix lineup that doesn’t have the same athleticism or energy that Golden State can bring on a game to game basis. Warriors get the early lead; avoiding full game.
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college, UFC and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 9! Finally, D-Nasy is back and the boys get into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. As always, I’m keeping it light for the first few weeks until we can fully analyze these teams.
Games to Avoid:
Carolina Hurricanes (-150) @ Vancouver Canucks (+130)
This game has trap written all over it. The Hurricanes have looked unbelievable to start the season, while the Canucks have looked horrendous. Vancouver’s goaltending has been sub-par and shown no signs of encouragement. For me, this line should be around -200 in Carolina’s favor so I’m completely avoiding it and I suggest you do the same.
Pick(s):
Edmonton Oilers (-116) – Barstool
Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units
The Oilers are coming off a loss against the Blues on Saturday where they were shut out, 2-0. They’ve gotten off to a sub-par start going 2-3 but, haven’t had the easiest of schedules. Edmonton will have their work cut out tonight as they face a 4-0-1 Pittsburgh Penguins squad.
The Penguin’s lone loss was on the road against the Montreal Canadiens in OT. While the Penguins are the more dominant team on paper, I believe this spot favors the Oilers. As a slight home favorite, I like the Oilers to win tonight and move to .500.
Dallas Stars (+100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
The Senators are expected to start Magnus Hellberg tonight in net. Their other two options Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg are out. Ottawa dropped their first two games of the season but has since gone on a 3 game-winning streak.
Dallas has yet to lose a game in regulation to start the year. Their only loss was against the Maple Leafs in OT on Thursday last week. Scott Wedgewood is expected to get the start in net who is currently 12th in the NHL in GSAx. Given the mismatch in net and overall team form, I’ll take the Stars at plus money tonight.
Player Props to Target:
Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
Tkachuk has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in four of his first five games this season. At home, he has gone over this number in all three matchups. The Stars haven’t been great defensively this year, allowing the 21st most shots on goal against.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-125) – DraftKings
McDavid has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in four of his first five games this season. At home, he has gone over this number in four of five matchups. The Penguins haven’t been great defensively this year, allowing the 28th most shots on goal against.
Jack Hughes over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – DraftKings
Hughes has recorded over 3.5 Shots on Goal in four of his first five games this season. At home, he has gone over this number in all three matchups. The Capitals haven’t been great defensively this year, allowing the 18th most shots on goal against.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
What’s up everyone! We’re cruising to a 12-4 start in NBA picks! Let’s get more:
Knicks -7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I’m really impressed by what I’m seeing from the Knicks. They’re a top 7 OFF/EFF team through 2 games but it’s what I see on the screen that’s the difference. Jalen Brunson may be a better fit than I realized and I think he’s a real catalyst for their entire offense. He has a moxie and aggressive style of play, something none of the Knicks’ other offensive stars really have, and that frees up the rest of their offense to become more loose and confident. He also creates more space and takes attention away from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, who have looked good but not great and the Knicks’ offense is still looking better. I don’t think Orlando will be able to stop the Knicks and it’s a nice comfy spot at home for NY.
Celtics -4.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I just don’t think the Bulls are very good. The Celtics, on the other hand, are clearly one of the NBA’s premiere teams again and they’re immediately at the top of the association in net rating. They’ve been particularly efficient on offense. The Bulls look clumsy and without chemistry as a unit, which is kind of how they finished their season last year. They lost 10 of their last 15 games and just looked like a team without direction. Zach Lavine does something that disrupts their space, too. All Celtics for me.
Nets/Grizzlies over 228 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Grizz and Nets don’t look interested in playing much defense so far; both are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Memphis is allowing a staggering 123.7 ppg alone. The Nets are more finesse while the Grizzlies are more aggressive and downhill. I like both offenses to have an advantage on offense. I have this total at 234, so I’m taking an over.
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I am not going to rush into this one but I do like the Colts here and I have them winning this game outright. This team feels a lot like last year where they had to take the time to get going with a new quarterback. There is just too much talent on this team in my opinion to take lightly. The Colts have quietly moved to 16 in defensive EPA even without their leader in Shaquille Leonard. The are coming off of a bye which is good for them, but they are still quite injured on the offensive line without any quality receivers. Tennessee has a massive weaknesses on defense allowing 7.9 passing yards per attempt as well as 4.5 yards per rush. This puts them at a net negative yards per play at -1.4 while the Colts are close to even. Now that Pittman is healthy, the Colts have a better passing game, and they also should be getting stud running back Jonathan Taylor from injury. I think this will be a close game but I also have the Colts winning this by 1. Try and wait for a three here.
Colts +3 -120 – 2 stars
Atlanta vs Cincinnati -6 O/U 47.5
What have we heard all year? Atlanta will have regression. Atlanta will have regression. Well, lots of burnt up tickets this year from that. I regret buying back some last week on the 49ers, but I was also quite happy to see the Falcons as another big dog here. The Bengals are a good team, but certainly not great. They were out-gained last week against the Saints, and might have lost the game without one huge play to Jamar Chase late in the 4th quarter. Atlanta is relatively healthy thus far and they have some big targets for Mariota to throw to in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Marcus has been great with his legs so far this year and the Bengals have struggled against mobile quarterbacks such as Mitch Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson. The big thing for me here is that both teams seem to play a lot of close games. Four of the Bengals 6 games were decided by 4 points or less while the Falcons haven’t lost a game by more than six points themselves. I think that Atlanta could once again make a little noise here. The Falcons perform well as a dog and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 games. Take the dirty birds here to cover.
Huge Sunday game led by an Executive Level TIER 1 the AFC Game of the Year and an early 6*. We also have a Perfect NBA Game 3 system and League Championship Baseball. Comp play below.
The NFL comp Play is on the UNDER in the NY. Jets at Denver game at 4:05 eastern. This game fits the Powerful totals system below that plays Under for home teams like Denver that are coming off a Monday night game where they were an underdog and are taking on a team that is off a road dog win like the Jets and the total is between 35.5 and 43.5. These games average just 32 points per game since 1989. Denver will be without Wilson and are now a slight home dog. The Jets are 8 of 9 under off a win by 14 or more and 4 of 5 after a spread win. They have a top 10 defense in yards allowed and the 18th ranked offense in total yards gained. Denver has gone under 21 of 28 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4 of the last 5 here. They have the 32nd ranked offense and the #3 defense. Look for a lower scoring grind it out game that stays under. On Sunday 4 big NFL Plays headline with the AFC Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, An early 6* and a Big Total. We have League Championship Historical system as well as a Perfect Game 3 Specific NBA Power system. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the NFL Comp play. Play the Under in the NY at Denver game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
I have both of these guys ranked pretty closely as tier 2 fighers. Volkan has the edge standing up from a technical perspective while Krylov is the better grappler, and I think that is why Krylov is the favorite here. I feel that Volkan has shown a lot of maturity against Paul Craig in his last fight being able to back off him on the ground. I also feel that Krylov’s last win against Gustafson doesn’t really move the needle much for me. Volkan has the opportunity to move back up in the Ranks and he has had the harder schedule up to this point. The reason I am betting Volkan Oosdemir is because of his defense. His Takedown defense is 86% while Krylov’s accuracy is only 35%. I also like how Volkan beat other ground guys such as Latifi and OSP. I honestly have this fight more of a pick-em. When there is a dog of this size in a pick-em fight, you always take the dog.
Volkan +150 – 1.5 stars
Islam Makachev vs Chales Oliveira +150
I have been waiting for this matchup since Khabib Nurmagomedov retired. If you like Charles this fight, it is certainly because of how he has performed against some of the greatest competition in the light weight class. But my question is, who is he best grappler that Charles has beaten? Most Chuck’s best wins were stand up fighters such as Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje. Islam will have the advantage on the ground who has a better take down average at 3.41 to 2.46, better take down accuracy at 65% to 40%, and better take down defense at 88% to 57%. Minus Oliveira’s nasty rear naked choke move, we really haven’t had to see Charles do a lot on the mat and that could be a big challenge for him against a guy from Eagle’s MMA. Islam is the best pound for pound fighter that I have seen who is currently active thus far. He is a freight train and I compare him to Georgia in football. Strength of Schedule matters less if you are absolutely throttling your opponents. Getting Islam under the -200 is a bargain to me, and I do not think that it will happen again for a long time.
It’s time for some maction, even though the games are still on Saturdays and not on Tuesdays until week 10. Bowling Green isn’t the pathetic team that they were over the past 10 years or so. They have been upgraded to just bad. In saying that, so is Central Michigan. Both teams are 74th or worse in defensive success rate as well as EPA. Bowling Green is a bad -1.3 net yards per play while Central Michigan is about even hence the -6.5 point spread. If I could say anything nice about each team, they both average a little over 25 points per game counting some difficult non-conference games. On the other side of the coin, Bowling green gives up 37 points per game while the Chippewas give up over 29. I like the over in this game. Both teams play at a higher pace with Central ranking 21st and Bowling Green ranking 37th. Weather looks good as well.
Over 51 – 2.5 stars
Texas vs Oklahoma State +6.5 O/U 62
What have we learned about Texas. Well they seem pretty resilient for one. They should have beaten Alabama and they creamed Oklahoma without a quarterback. The question is, what has Texas done on the road? Wait, you mean to tell me they have had only one road game? And they lost!? This spread bugs the heck out of me. Oklahoma State hasn’t quite played the schedule that Texas has played, but they at last went on the road last and choked the game to overtime against the TCU. Oklahoma State also beat Big 12 champion Baylor a few weeks back. I must admit, I was on TCU last week, but my mistake was assuming that just because the Pokes do not rank high in the advanced metrics, doesn’t mean that they deserve to be a big dog here at home. Both of these teams are still in the hunt here for the Big 12 championship, and Oklahoma State will be able to get after Quinn Ewers ranking 21st in Sack margin and 11h in defensive adjusted line yards. No real power rating has Texas more than a 3 point road favorite on the road here. I assume that some think that Sanders won’t be playing, but I do not understand why that is when he finished the game just fine last week. This handicap is more about Texas being on the road. I feel that they underperform in these situations. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
We’ve started off WHITE HOT in the NBA and I’m here for it. Appreciate all the kind messages. It won’t continue at this rate but you already know that. We’ll ride it for as long as we can, though!
Sunday Disclaimer: If you don’t read any other notes in this email, read this. Sundays are WEIRD in the NBA, and they’re especially weird during the NFL season. Last season I swear the most zany shit happened over and over again on the ol’ Sabbath. So, ergo, don’t expect many plays, if any, from me on Sundays in the NBA. I can give my leans and they’ll be sharp as hell, but you might as well wager on the insane happening because, it does. And it kind of makes sense. Sundays in America = rest. It’s a football day. Maybe NBA players really don’t want to be out there, idk. Anywho, don’t complain if/when I don’t release plays. We’ll be better off.
Onto the picks and my full card is below!
NBA Premiums, 10.22 (11-3, +8.25 units):
Rockets/Bucks over 231.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a rough travel spot for Houston and Milwaukee will probably smash them but I like the over a little more here. The Rockets can score and they like to go fast. Milwaukee historically runs faster at home and it’s a great opportunity for their offense to get in-rhythm, a scrimmage if you will, with little pressure. Neither team will want to play much defense. Take the over.
Thunder +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I’m higher on the Thunder than most people. Giddy, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dort are a formidable trio and they’ll surprise teams a lot this year. The Nuggets are fresh off a big road victory that they wanted after a bad opening loss. Really tough travel spot, even though they’re at home, and Denver has always been an up and down team. Idk if that’s a Jokic thing– other players just don’t go as hard b/c they have him and kinda let down– or if it’s a coaching thing. The Nuggets just aren’t consistent yet and I think OKC is a live dog today. Gotta take them with the points.
CFB Week 7 Picks ( 30-33-7, -9.46 units):
CFB Season is winding down in my brain since, firstly, we haven’t seen much success and I’,m wondering if I ever should have handicapped it in the first place. Just too much going on with the NFL and now with the NBA. I’ll probably have a few plays I like every week but I’m going light from now on.
UCLA +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UCLA/Oregon under 70.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two physical defenses coming off a bye and this is a huge Pac-12 game. Like the under, this total is a little too high, and UCLA can score and has a tough defense to keep Oregon in line. Yes, even in Eugene.
Notre Dame -27 (-110), to win 1 unit
One of CFB’s worst teams come to South Bend and after a piss-poor loss to Stanford, ifg the Irish can’t get up and look elite here, they have more issues than Marcus Freeman.
Alabama -21 (-110), to win 2 units
Response spot for Alabama at home, and now every game needs a few more exclamation points for the Crimson Tide. They roll.
Purdue ML (+115), to win 0.57 units
Wisconsin is soft, end of explanation.
Army -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
UL Monroe literally can’t stop anyone and Army is coming off 3 wins and I think they get UP for this one against a very beatable foe with an offense that can be stymied.
UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):
Main Event
Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units
Over 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw. for the win
