The market clearly isn’t down on SF after a poor performance in Denver last week as we have seen this spread on the game keep moving for SF now at -2. My system likes the Rams tonight so I will look to recommend a first half play to back SF as they are 4-1 in night games 1H ATS in this matchup since 2016 when both coaches took over as HC’s. The O/U in that spot is also 2-4 with an average total of 46, which may be part of the reason why we have seen this total come way down from the 48 open. Of note, in this spot, SF is 5-1 ATS for the full game and is also 4-1 in the 1st quarter ATS. A good plus price on their spread for the 1st quarter at -0.5 (+135) is available but likely that high with good reason, so proceed with caution.
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Coming off a profitable week in MLB, my season record sits at 162-148-6, +7.07u. The playoffs are just days away, but I do like 3 plays for tonight to get the week started. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Guardians F5 -0.5(-120) vs Royals–5:10 PM CT
This is a seismic pitching mismatch, particularly when you consider how bad Royals SP Zack Grienke has been on the road(5.68 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). I know Grienke is a veteran with a long track record of success, but we have successfully faded him repeatedly in his road starts this year. He’s allowing nearly 28% of balls to be hit 95+ mph and striking out less than 5 batters/9 innings… not a good combo to say the least. While the Guardians offense is not full of world beaters, they have proven plenty component in this role to take advantage of a washed up arm.
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has had a fantastic season, bringing a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP into tonight’s start. McKenzie’s one kryptonite this year has been allowing the HR ball; thankfully, weather is on our side with a moderate wind blowing in. More importantly, this is a dream matchup to put a bow on his regular season. Since August 1st, the Royals hold a poor 81 wRC+ on the road vs righties.
Given the Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, I would usually be on the run line here. However, the Guardians emptied out their bullpen in yesterday’s game, with many of those guys throwing 20+ pitches. With the postseason just days away, I don’t want to gamble with Terry Francona not putting his best relievers in there. I expect McKenzie to go 5 innings tonight like Shane Bieber did yesterday, so I’ll isolate the F5 here.
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(-120) vs Phillies–7:10 PM CT
Just because the Phillies “need” to win this game more than the Astros doesn’t mean they’re equipped to do so. Since August 1st, the Phillies have been HORRIBLE on the road vs right-handed pitching; their 81 wRC+ over the time period is good for 27th in baseball. Astros SP Lance McCullers can be a little shaky with his command, but he limits homers and hard contact at an All-Star rate. The Phillies consistently underperform in comparison to how much “talent” they have in their lineup; I won’t hold my breath expecting this to play out any differently.
Phillies SP Aaron Nola is deserving of a case study this offseason. Despite bringing a sub-1.00 WHIP into tonight’s start, Nola holds a 10-13 record on the season. Like clockwork(and similar to Robbie Ray), Nola has one blowup inning that seems to turn a seemingly strong start into a loss. This Astros lineup didn’t swing the bats great this weekend given the Rays starters they had to face, but since September 1st, they hold a 136 wRC+ at home vs righties. I think they’re more than equipped to put a crooked inning in this one.
A big part of this play is the bullpen disadvantage. Outside of Rafael Montero, every key arm will be available in this deep and effective Houston bullpen. The Phillies might have a “fresh” bullpen, but they are flat out terrible, ranking 24th in the league in bullpen WHIP.
*MLB(1u): Angels TT OVER 4.5(+115) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
We faded the Angels lineup routinely throughout the course of the summer, but since they gained Mike Trout back from the IL, this lineup has quietly shown lots of improvement. They held a respectable 107 wRC+ vs righties in the month of September, and now they enter a dream matchup. Athletics SP Adrian Martinez will be making his second straight start against this Angels lineup, a spot I absolutely hate for SP’s. That angle aside, there is simply not much to like about Martinez. His 6.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP makes the obvious, but he’s also allowing an astounding 2.2 HR/9. This is a spot where the Angels offense should absolutely pounce.
As insurance, the Athletics’ bullpen ranks 22nd in bullpen WHIP, is not at full strength, and is a unit we’ve had success fading all season.
Monday card starts the week off with the NFC WEST Game of the Month backed with an Undefeated system and a powerful 5* Diamond Cutter System in the National League Specific to game 160 of the season. Football overall ranked #1 this season. MLB Comp play below.
On Monday the MLB comp Play is on Tampa Bay at 7:10 eastern. The Rays fit a solid system that pertains to game 160 that plays on road favorites off a loss vs an opponent like Boston off a away dog loss. Tampa has Glasnow making his 2nd start back from Injury and he will take on E. Hill who has a 5>71 era at night and a 5+ era at home. Boston is 1-10 vs a starter with a 1.15 or less whip. Tampa has won 11 of 13 vs a lefty 16 of 23 vs a losing team and the last 4 in the series. Take Tampa Tonight. On Monday night Football our NFC West Play of the Month headlines with a Perfect system. We also have a 5* Diamond Cutter Also with a perfect system in MLB Action in the N.L. and it is specific to game 160 of the season. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue to Dominate on the diamond and on the big field. For the MLB Comp play. Take Tampa. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev talks about the firing of Wisconsin Badger’s coach Paul Chyst as well as the good, the bad, and the ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 6! Finally, Kiev gets into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Why are we so scared of the big bad Eagles? Yes they pounded some crappy teams as well as the Vikings who couldn’t score in the Red Zone but are they that much better than Jacksonville? What if we erase the Washington game week 1 off of the Jaguar’s history? What is the line on this game? Metrically, the Eagles have a nice yards per play advantage at net 1.9 compared to Jacksonville’s .2, but I also think that the strength of schedule favors the Jags shutting down the Colts, and the Chargers with 1 hiccup vs the Commanders is stronger compared to the Eagles beating the Vikings at home, Commanders, and Lions. Looking at EPA, the Jaguars are number 3 in defense compared to the Eagles being number 7, while on offense the Jags are number 7 and the Eagles are number 4. Both quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are about equal in quarterback rating. I think coaching-wise, the Jaguars know this is a huge game for Doug Peterson coming back to his old team, and will try to play out of their minds to win it.
Jaguars +6.5 – 3 stars
Chicago vs NY Giants -3 O/U 38.5
When you look at these lines, it is assumed that the Bears are still all about defense. Well, the way that they gave up yards on the ground vs the Texans, and the Packers tells me different. I think the Texans really beat themselves last week in Chicago giving the ball away in a tied game on their side of the field with 1 minute left in the clock. Dumb coaching move to throw the ball there. Justin Fields could turn out to be a good quarterback, but he still seems like a rookie to me having a new coach and a brand new system this year. He ranks second to last in EPA + CPOE thus far, and he is prone to throwing interceptions when scrambling. The Good fields can put up large chunks of yards with his legs and get the Bears into scoring range. Justin has a high variance of scoring and throwing bad interceptions to give up field position which is good for the over. The Giants are banged up at wide receiver, but they still have Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton who have some NFL experience. New York’s offense ranks 21st in EPA which is good and their stud running back Saquon Barkley is still healthy. I like the over in this game.
