Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 2-1 in the high participant Double-Ups
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 12-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Jared Goff, QB: $5,900. The top three options in Allen, Jackson, and Hurts are all over $8,000. Too much for my blood. So who to turn to here in week 4? How about the guy who hasn’t attempted less than 34 passes. How about the guy going up against the 31st ranked pass defense in DVOA? How about the guy playing in a game with a total up over 48 points? Vegas think someone is going to score in this game so why not Jared Goff? The downside here is some of his weapons are not likely to play in Amon-St. Brown, DJ Chark, and Deandre Swift. I don’t think there’s a lot of drop-off in Jamaal Williams. I also saw enough when Quintez Cephus was healthy last year to know he has a connection with Goff. Let’s take a shot here.
Jamaal Williams, RB:$6,100. As mentioned above it doesn’t look like Swift will play. If he does this pick will change. Williams went 20 times for 87 yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings last week once he had the backfield mostly to himself. Seattle is 27th vs the rush and injured on defense so like I said I like the Lions to score in this one.
Austin Ekeler, RB:$7,700. Ekeler and the Chargers have been awful rushing the ball up to this point. Ekeler only has 80 yards on 32 carries. He has however been a key cog in the passing game with 21 catches for 139 yards. I think the Houston defense, who is 32nd against the run, coupled with the still less than 100% Herbert is what will get the Chargers to commit to the run this week. My only concern here are injuries on the Chargers O-Line and the fact that they seemed to mail it in last week. Could this be indicative of the teams tolerance of Staley? We will see.
CeeDee Lamb, WR: $6,700. Cooper Rush and Lamb seem to be on the same page. He’s got 23 targets from Rush for 15 catches, 162 Yards and a score. He also dropped a sure 40 yard TD pass last week where he was wide open. The Commanders should pressure Rush more the Giants did, but the secondary can be had.
Richie James Jr., WR: $4,000. Richie was getting decent snap percentage and averaged over 5 targets per game before Sterling Shepard went down. It’s clear this coaching staff doesn’t trust Kenny Golladay, and he did nothing to help that narrative with drops Monday night. Richie’s playing time is only going to go up. He’s really Rick James Jr. Bitch! Big value on this Superfreak.
Stefon Diggs, WR: $8,400. With all these solid mid-level and value options, I had to get a top tier player in somewhere. Diggs couldn’t find the end zone last week against Miami, but he’s the top option on Sunday’s slate and gets the ball in his hands whether the Bills are ahead or behind. The Ravens have been so bad against the pass that even Joe Flacco put some points up against them. Tua put up 6 TDs, and even the Pats moved the ball through the air. Look for Diggs to approach 10 catches with a score and a decent handful of yards.
Tyler Conklin, TE: $3,600. The Tight End’s are one giant group of questionable choices and questionable injury reports. Conklin has been Joe Flacco’s safety net thus far, and I really like this play here if Wilson isn’t back under center. He’s averaging 6 catches on 8 targets for 46 yards over three games and did find the end zone back in Week 1. The Steelers are giving up 5 catches for 45 yards vs opposing Tight Ends so the opportunity is there.
Greg Dortch, WR: $5,000. Dortch will be in my lineup for a second time if he can work through the back injury he is currently dealing with. He should be the number 2 guy behind Hollywood Brown if he can as the Cards WR room is decimated or suspended. If he can’t go you might not find out until after the Noon games go off so have a backup plan in place. Kyle Pitts could be play here if Dortch is still questionable before the early games kick.
Commanders, DST: $2,600. The Commanders have managed to at least pressure the QB up to this point even though they’ve given up a fair number of points. I think the front four is good enough to dominate against a below average Cowboys O-Line. I took Lamb above because he’s going to get his either way, but It’s still a backup QB playing in Dallas. Rivera has to have something up his sleeve this week.
Thursday card has NFL, College Football and MLB Headlining. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the LA. Angels on the run line at 9:40 eastern. Oakland fits a powerful late season system that plays on home favorites of -200 or higher in the last game of a series in game 150 or later if they are off a home favored win and the total is less than 8. LA has won 8 of 9 at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 and 4 straight here vs a lefty., Oakland has lost 6 straight on Thursdays and the last 5 here. Oakland has Irvin going and he has a 5+ road Era, He takes on Ohtani who has a 2>00 Home Era and has allowed just a pair of runs in his last 2 starts vs Oakland. He has been superb overall of late allowing 2 or less runs in his last 5 starts. Look for LA To take the finale. On Thursday a Powerful card is up with TOP Plays in the NFL, College Football and MLB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we Continue to dominate the leader boards in multiple sports. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Angels on the run line. Rob Vinciletti
Coming off a 6-5, -0.73u Week 4, I hold a mediocre season record of 19-20, -2.87u in CFB. I hit at a 55% clip and netted +27.35u in CFB last year, and I’m confident a breakout week is ahead. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
A FEW NOTES
Team Totals don’t become widely available until Saturday, but I will be on quite a few this week. I will have write-ups for those out on Saturday morning when I lock them in, but to give you an idea:
Iowa State TT OVER has the chance to be my heaviest wager of the week. If we get that at 31 or lower, it will be 2u play. At anything above 31, it will be a 1.5u play.
Texas Tech TT UNDER will be a 1u play anything at or above 24.
Texas A&M TT UNDER is likely to be a play. Would love to get at 21 or higher.
Oregon TT OVER or Oregon 1H TT OVER is under heavy consideration as well.
Many games in the southeast region have major question marks around them given the Hurricane. Weather could be a major factor in a lot of these games, maybe none moreso than NC State vs Clemson(projected winds of 25+ mph at the moment). Rather than guess multiple days in advance what the weather will look like, I’ll wait closer to Saturday to play any of these games.
I gave this out on Wednesday night, but I would still encourage a play on UTSA despite this moving to -4.5/5.
We’ve seen the market react greatly to Middle Tennessee State’s upset win over Miami last week; give the Blue Raiders credit for consistently exposing Miami’s poor defensive game plan(Chase Cunningham was over 25 yards/completion). However, I still think MTSU’s offense ranks in the bottom 30 of College Football. UTSA is not going to be as arrogant as Miami was last week in their secondary, meaning the likelihood of a repeat performance for Chase Cunningham is unlikely. For MTSU to move the ball efficiently, they’re going to need to establish the run. I don’t see them being able to do so given RB1 Frank Peasant holds a career 4.2 YPC and has only had success this year vs Tennessee State. UTSA’s defensive numbers are skewed given the level of competition they’ve played(Houston, @ Army, @ Texas); I think they’ll be able to win up front vs this vulnerable UTSA O-Line and stimmy the Blue Raiders from an effective night.
I love this UTSA offense, specifically their passing offense. QB Frank Harris holds a 5:1 TD/INT ratio over the last 2 seasons and is moving the offense at an efficient clip(8.5 Y/A). Unlike Miami, UTSA is very solidified at the WR position. While UTSA’s run game has declined since losing Sincere McCormick, this is an offense that’s looked good despite it. MTSU has a pretty solid front 4, but I have a hard time seeing them get home on a mobile Harris given this UTSA system is predicated on getting the ball out quick. The mismatch on the outside is stark; much like James Madison did earlier this season in a 44-7 win over MTSU, I think an experienced Roadrunners attack will be able to take advantage of this edge consistently.
*CFB(1u): Washington/UCLA OVER 64.5–Fri 9/30; 9:30 PM CT
I leaned towards the Over when this opened at 66.5, so getting 2 more points of cushion was enough for me to fire on this as an official play.
Washington HC Kalen DeBour has completely changed the dynamics around this Huskies offense in quick fashion. He had worked with QB Michael Penix back in 2019 when they were at Indiana(Penix had a career best season), and up to this point, they have moved the ball at will vs both Michigan State and Stanford. This should be another matchup where they can take advantage. UCLA has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, yet they still rank 67th in my defensive efficiency power ratings. This is a secondary that got exposed routinely in their tougher matchups last year, and even against inferior competition, teams have found a way to consistently establish the run on this Bruins defense. Washington’s OL is finally starting to live up to the massive expectations we had for them a year ago, not having allowed a sack in either of their last 2 games.
I love this UCLA offense. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a 5th year starter at this point that has shown consistent progression throughout his college career. He’s completing 75% of his passes this year and is also a MAJOR threat with his legs. Washington’s secondary has proven to be pretty attackable this season; they allowed Michigan State’s Payton Thorne to storm a major comeback a few weeks ago and yielded 11 Y/A to Stanford’s Tanner McKee last week. While the Huskies have been stout against the run for most of this season, this is by far the toughest test their Front 7 will face this year. Aside from the threat of DTR in the run game, the Bruins have a true bruiser in the form of RB Zach Charbonnet(5.6 YPC and 1137 yards in 2021, 6.8 YPC in 2022).
When you factor in that both of these teams like to run fast(UCLA in particular is running at a manically fast tempo this year), I don’t understand why this isn’t in the High 60’s. Given the experience/effectiveness of both QB’s and the acumen of both HC’s, I felt this was worth a play.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma/TCU OVER 69–Sat 10/1; 11 AM CT
We cashed a best bet on the TCU Over last week; for many of the same reasons, I’m running it back this week.
Oklahoma has a Top 5 offense in CFB, plain and simple. Jeff Lebby’s veer-and-shoot system is somewhat of a cheat code. I felt like the Sooners left a lot of plays on the field last week vs a Top 10 defense in Kansas State, yet they still put up 34 points and 550 yards of offense. TCU’s front 4 will not provide the same level of resistance that the Wildcats did, and to a much greater degree, TCU’s secondary is far more attackable than Kansas State’s. Dillon Gabriel(67%, 9.3 Y/A, 11 TD vs 0 INT) is a perfect fit for this offense, and the plethora of playmakers he has on the outside will provide a pretty clear mismatch in this matchup.
For as low as I am on TCU’s defense, I really do like their offense. QB Max Duggan is a 4th year starter that has developed into a good college QB(over 9 Y/A each of the past 2 seasons). Moreover, TCU has proven that they can create explosive plays in multiple ways. RB Kendre Miller has run for over 7 YPC in his career, and the Frogs are loaded at both the WR and TE position. I liked how Oklahoma’s front 7 looked in their easier matchups, but as last week vs Kansas State showed, this is not a very good unit when stepping up in competition. Brent Venables will change that over time, but the jimmies-and-joes on this defense just aren’t there. While Adrian Martinez had quite a bit of success against the Sooners last week, I still don’t think this secondary(which I was low on coming into the season) has been tested the way they’ll be in this matchup.
With totals, pace is a critical component of the handicap. Oklahoma runs at an extremely fast pace, and Sonny Dykes will not be afraid to turn this into a track meet to keep up with this explosive OU attack. The Big12 has morphed into a better defensive league than people think, but you won’t think that after watching these two teams match up.
*CFB(1u): Memphis -19 vs Temple–Sat 10/1; 11 AM CT
Temple is truly one of the worst teams in the FBS and an absolute fade for me, especially on the road. We saw them lose by 30 at Duke in their only other road game this year, and this one could be just as ugly.
Memphis is clearly not where they were at the end of the Mike Norvell era, but there is a lot to like about this Tigers squad. QB Seth Henigan has made strides from his freshman season, bringing a 67% completion, 8.9 Y/A, and 8:1 TD/INT ratio into this matchup. I also think there is plenty of talent at both RB and WR to be able to put up a crooked number here. The one thing that has plagued Memphis at times this year is their O-Line. Thankfully, Temple’s pass rush is non-existent, and in general, their Front 7 looked overmatched in both of their Power 5 matchups. Temple had a good secondary a year ago, but as that Duke game proved, if you can’t make an impact up front, even mediocre passing offenses will pick you apart. I think Henigan is much better than “mediocre”.
Temple’s offense is clearly the worst unit on the field in this matchup. Their numbers vs Lafayette and UMASS are meaningless to me; they were shut out at Duke and put up just 264 yards vs Rutgers. In particular, Temple has shown no semblance of a run game against any team with a pulse this year. Freshman QB EJ Warner will be making his first ever road start, and aside from his performance vs Lafayette, he too has looked terrible. I don’t worry about Memphis winning up front in this caliber of matchup. The Tigers will force Temple into obvious passing downs which, as shown throughout the year, is not a recipe for success for the Owls. I know Memphis’s D didn’t loom great vs either Arkansas State or North Texas, but this is a considerably easier matchup facing what could be a bottom 5 offense in the country.
When you throw in the major revenge angle after Memphis laid an egg against Temple last year, I think the Tigers can name their score here.
*CFB(1u): Auburn +8.5 vs LSU–Sat 10/1: 6 PM CT
This line is giving LSU’s offense far too much credit. QB Jayden Daniels’ mobility has been able to hide this somewhat, but LSU’s offensive line is TERRIBLE. Even with his mobility, Daniels has still been sacked 12 times this season, including 4 times last week vs New Mexico. I haven’t given up on Auburn’s defense yet; while they didn’t make as big of an impact vs above average OL’s like Penn State and Missouri, I see this as a matchup where they can dominate LSU’s OL. Daniels has been efficient through the air this year but hasn’t been allowed the time to strike consistently in the vertical passing game. LSU’s run game had a strong 4th quarter vs Mississippi State but have otherwise looked average vs Power 5 competition. Are we just going to forget how LSU looked against a similar level of defense in Florida State earlier this year?
It looks like QB Robby Ashford will run the show for Auburn once again this week, and quite honestly, I think he gives Auburn a better chance than TJ Finley. Ashford is a much bigger threat in the QB run game and has actually looked better as a passer than people would give him credit for(7.9 Y/A). Auburn has a solid set of RB’s led by a bruiser in Tank Bigsby that will be utilized greatly in this matchup. LSU’s defense has looked better than I thought it would, and clearly they have a physical front 4. However, I do think LSU’s back 7 is attackable. Auburn will be playing more of a “ball control” or “keep away” type of game, but given what I think they’ll get from their defense, I think that will prove to be effective.
LSU has glaring holes that I believe will be exposed throughout the rest of the season. In addition, Brian Kelly is dealing with many of the same issues from a team building standpoint that many 1st year HC’s deal with. To assume LSU can roll the ball out and win on the road, at Jordan-Hare, at night by double-digits is insane to me. Auburn clearly should’ve lost to Missouri last week and were gifted that game. However, with new life, this is a major step-up spot for Auburn, and I think they will respond accordingly.
We have a Fantastic show for you today! Adam Chernoff @AdamChernoff from Covers.com comes on to break down a HUGE NFL week 4 slate of games! First, Kiev talks the agenda for next week while he is on Vacation in Playa Del Carmen. Next, Adam comes on and the guys talk about why totals are down so low as well as how to adjust for some big injuries. Then, Adam and Kiev @OBKiev get into the full NFL slate of games with some leans and FREE PLAYS for NFL week 4! After that, Kiev gives out some college football plays for week 5! Finally, we get into College and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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An 0-1 start to the week brings my MLB record to 160-148-6, +4.97u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 -0.5(-110) vs Cardinals–6:40 PM CT
This is a far bigger pitching mismatch than this line would let on. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff has been utterly dominant at home this year(2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and held a sub-1.00 WHIP in both 2020 and 2021. The Cardinals have had a great second half offensively, but they’ve regressed a bit as of late. If you take away one 11-run performance in LA last weekend, the Red Birds have scored less than 2 runs/game over their last 8 games. When you consider they clinched the NL Central last night, it is unlikely they will throw out their “A” lineup in this matchup.
Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has had massive struggles on the road this year(4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), including in Milwaukee back in July(4 ER in 4 innings). The Brewers have 4 projected starters with a career OPS above 1.000 vs Quintana. I know Quintana’s season ERA at 3.03 looks very good, but a WHIP at 1.22 is proof that he has escaped his fair share of damage.
*MLB(1u): Angels -1.5(+110) vs Athletics–8:40 PM CT
Angels SP Michael Lorenzen has been atrocious on the road this year, but at Angel Stadium, he has fared quite well(3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). In 2 starts vs the A’s this year, Lorenzen has allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings. This A’s offense has been unbackable all season, and they present virtually no threat to slug off of Lorenzen in a role he’s settled into nicely.
Athletics SP Adrian Martinez is clearly in the big leagues out of necessity, not because he deserves to be. In 10 starts this year, Martinez holds an ugly 1.52 WHIP and is allowing an alarmingly high 2.2 HR/9. The Angels were a lineup to fade when Mike Trout was on the IL, but since he’s rejoined the club, this offense has shown signs of life. They scored 18 runs in Minnesota this weekend and followed that up with a 12-hit performance last night.
A big part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. The Angels might hold only modest bullpen numbers, but that still means they hold a sizable edge over an Oakland bullpen that ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP this year and has been an easy fade all season. If more stock were put into bullpen metrics and Lorenzen were being priced according to his home numbers, we wouldn’t be getting this at plus-money.
Missouri out-gained Auburn 311 to 217 yet lost 17-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and horrible kicking on special teams killed them.
Toledo out-gained San Diego State 376 to 282 yet lost 17-14. A 4-1 turnover ratio and bad D hurt them at the end of the game.
North Texas out-gained Memphis 473 to 334 yet lost 44-34. A 3-1 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency killed them.
Georgia Tech out-gained UCF 452 to 333 yet lost 27-10. Equal turnovers but horrible Red zone and 4th down efficiency continues to kill Georgia Tech and that offense.
Arkansas State out-gained Old Dominion 397 to 330 yet lost 29-26. A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them.
Rutgers out-gained Iowa 361 to 277 yet lost 27-10. A 3-0 turnover ratio which 2 of them were scored and bad efficiency hurt them at home.
Utah State out-gained UNLV 421 to 320 yet lost 34-24. A 6-0 turnover ratio hurt bad.
Arkansas out-gained Texas A&M 415 to 343 yet lost 23-21. A 1-0 turnover ratio which was a 14 point swing KILLED THEM. KJ Jefferson fumbled on the A&M 3 yard line that went for 97 yards and a TD.
Tulane out-gained Southern Miss 451 to 253 yet lost 27-24. A 1-0 turnover ratio was all. Bad red zone efficiency hurt.
Northwestern out-gained Miami OH 364 to 216 yet lost 17-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone killed them.
FAU out-gained Purdue 419 to 354 yet lost 28-26. Equal turnovers and bad efficiency hurt them.
Oklahoma out-gained Kansas State 550 to 509 yet lost 41-34. Equal turnovers and bad 3rd down efficiency killed the Sooners 3 for 14.
Back for Week 5!! We are 18-15 (55%, +$360, +1.3% CLV) in College Football and 6 plays locked in for this weekend! Below is one of them. Best of luck if you tail!
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In their Conference USA debut this season, the UTSA Road Runners head to Tennessee to take on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. The Road Runners enters with a strength of schedule that ranks 55th in the nation after beating Texas Southern last week and playing the likes of Houston and Texas while the Blue Raiders are coming off their high of the year after beating a ranked Miami Hurricanes squad. However, they come in with a 111th ranked strength of schedule and have lost to James Madison 44-7 in their first game of the season. Although both teams have similar defense ratings, there is a clear advantage for UTSA on offense, ranking 15th in the nation in success rate and compiling 479 yards per game on 6.4 yards per play (MTS offensive success rate is 105th). The Mid Tennessee defense has been playing against offenses that average 5.1 yards per play and 340 total yards. This will be a step up and sets up as an excellent spot for the Road Runners in a let down spot for the Blue Raiders. Another advantage for the UTSA squad is their 3rd down conversation rate which is 50.98% and 14th in the country. Both teams will accumulate most of their yardage through the air and I am expecting the Road Runners to come out with a game plan to execute the edge on 10-20 yard plays (a stat which they rank 13th in NCAA in) and win by a touchdown. Take UTSA -4 for 0.5% of your bankroll.
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