Home Blog Page 271

September 12th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

We enjoyed a 4-1 week in MLB, bringing my season record to 152-141-6, +4.57u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(-120) @ Tigers–5:40 PM CT

Framber Valdez vs Eduardo Rodriguez is a total pitching mismatch, as is the offensive matchup between these two teams. Valdez has been absolutely fantastic for the ‘Stros this year, and he’s actually been sizably better on the road each of the past two seasons. Comerica Park is very pitcher-friendly, and Valdez will get the luxury of facing one of the worst lineups in baseball tonight that is on the heels of getting shutout yesterday. What I like most about Valdez is his unreal 5.18 groundball/flyball rate; this helps explain why he’s only allowed 0.47 HR/9 this season.

Tigers SP Eduardo Rodriguez has had a strange calendar year. He made 8 starts earlier this year before getting injured and completely cutting off contact from the team. He has drawn some favorable matchups in his 4 starts since returning, but this is the type of matchup where his regression will get punished. Rodriguez has lost 2 mph of velocity from his career average and is allowing more fly-balls and HR’s than at any other point in his career. The Astros have been steady against left-handed pitching all year and can be trusted in this spot.

Detroit’s bullpen has been a pleasant surprise this year, but the Astros still hold the edge in the later innings. Aside from Will Smith, this ‘Stros bullpen should have every other key arm available.

*MLB(1u): Braves F5 TT UNDER 1.5(+110) @ Giants–8:45 PM CT

We haven’t faded this Braves offense much this year, but this is a matchup I expect them to struggle in. Giants SP Alex Cobb has been utterly phenomenal at Oracle Park this year, bringing a 2.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into tonight’s start. Much like the aforementioned Valdez, Cobb produces ground balls(3.44 GB/FB rate) and limits HR’s(0.66 HR/9) at an elite rate. This Braves lineup has been elite vs left-handed pitching on the road, but the same can’t be said about how they’ve fared against righties. Since July 1st, Atlanta holds a pedestrian 107 wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark. Tonight marks the beginning of the Braves’ 3rd straight road series as well. I like Cobb to keep this Braves lineup at bay tonight.

Rob Vinciletti: MLB Totals system Play + Monday night Football Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Monday night rare 6* Totals system applies and is Undefeated since 1990. We also have the MLB Game of the Week with a perfect system that wins by an average 3 runs per game. NFL 4-1 on Sunday. MLB Comp play below.

The MLB Totals play is on the Over in the Cleveland at LA. Angels game at 6:10 eastern. The game fits this solid totals system that has cashed 15 of 17 times since 2004. Cleveland is 7 of 9 over at home vs a losing team and 5 of 6 over at home off a road trip of 7+ days. LA has flown over 10 of 14 on the road vs a winning team and 3 of vs a team that allowed 2 or less runs. Detmers for L has his form dipping with a 5.14 Era over his last 3 starts and Pilkington has a 4+ Era at home. Look for this game to play over the total. Rob V- GC Sports

O/U: 15-2-0

May 07, 2004 recap Fri 2004 home Red Sox Tim Wakefield-R Royals Jeremy Affeldt-L 7-6 1 W 3.5 O 13-9 2-1 1-4 -190.0 9.5 9
Jul 30, 2004 recap Fri 2004 home Cubs Mark Prior-R Phillies Eric Milton-L 10-7 3 W 8.5 O 14-11 0-2 4-3 -170.0 8.5 9
Jul 29, 2005 recap Fri 2005 home Red Sox Bronson Arroyo-R Twins Carlos Silva-R 8-5 3 W 3.5 O 8-7 0-3 5-0 -155.0 9.5 9
Aug 12, 2005 recap Fri 2005 home Guardians Jake Westbrook-R Rays Mark Hendrickson-L 6-8 -2 L 4.5 O 17-12 5-1 3-5 -200.0 9.5 9
May 29, 2006 recap Mon 2006 home Mets Steve Trachsel-R Diamondbacks Claudio Vargas-R 8-7 1 W 6.0 O 12-9 0-0 3-1 -135.0 9.0 9
May 04, 2007 recap Fri 2007 home Yankees Kei Igawa-L Mariners Cha Seung Baek-R 11-15 -4 L 15.5 O 16-20 0-0 5-7 -185.0 10.5 9
May 17, 2010 recap Mon 2010 home Phillies Kyle Kendrick-R Pirates Charlie Morton-R 12-2 10 W 3.5 O 13-5 1-1 10-1 -210.0 10.5 9
Jul 30, 2012 recap Mon 2012 home Reds Mike Leake-R Padres Edinson Volquez-R 5-11 -6 L 7.5 O 7-11 1-0 3-6 -145.0 8.5 9
Aug 15, 2014 recap Fri 2014 home Nationals Tanner Roark-R Pirates Charlie Morton-R 5-4 1 W 2.0 O 11-8 0-0 5-0 -152.0 7.0 9
May 17, 2018 recap Thu 2018 home Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez-R Athletics Andrew Triggs-R 5-10 -5 L 5.5 O 7-14 0-1 1-6 -117.0 9.5 9
May 16, 2019 recap Thu 2019 home Guardians Trevor Bauer-R Orioles Dan Straily-R 14-7 7 W 12.0 O 14-10 0-0 7-4 -340.0 9.0 9
Aug 19, 2019 recap Mon 2019 home Astros Wade Miley-L Tigers Edwin Jackson-R 5-4 1 W -0.5 U 8-14 1-2 3-1 -420.0 9.5 9
Aug 17, 2020 recap Mon 2020 home Dodgers Ross Stripling-R Mariners Justin Dunn-R 11-9 2 W 10.0 O 13-13 1-0 4-2 -300.0 10.0 9
Apr 26, 2021 recap Mon 2021 home Brewers Corbin Burnes-R Marlins Trevor Rogers-L 0-8 -8 L 1.5 O 8-11 1-1 0-8 -170.0 6.5 9
Jul 05, 2021 recap Mon 2021 home Giants Kevin Gausman-R Cardinals Kwang Hyun Kim-L 3-5 -2 L 0.5 O 6-7 0-0 0-4 -190.0 7.5 9
Sep 17, 2021 recap Fri 2021 home Astros Brandon Bielak-R Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner-L 4-3 1 W -2.5 U 4-10 0-1 1-1 -225.0 9.5 10
May 30, 2022 recap Mon 2022 home Dodgers Walker Buehler-R Pirates Zach Thompson-R 5-6 -1 L 3.0 O 10-9 1-1 1-4 -360.0 8.0 9

Sep 12, 2022 recap Mon 2022 home Guardians Konnor Pilkington-L Angels Reid Detmers-L -120.0 7.5

The Deeper Dive with Michael Fordham– Texas Nearly Upsets Alabama + Other Week 2 CFB Takeaways

By
Michael Fordham
-

All of my info: https://linktr.ee/fordhamsportsgambling

0:00- Intro

1:11- Quick Week 2 Betting Recap

2:00- Texas gives Alabama a run for their money

9:47- 3 possession favorites losing outright at home

16:06: The Florida hype was unfounded

21:22: Tennessee survives a tough road test

24:11: The Good, The Bad, The Iowa Offense

26:51: First glance at new-look USC

29:47: Hot Seat Talk(Scott Frost, Neal Brown)

34:06: Phenomenal After-Dark slate of games

35:48: Outro

NFL Week 1 Sunday Funday Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens yells at a referee against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 5, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Baltimore vs NY Jets +6.5 O/U 44

This spread and total pretty much asks how much the Jets are going to score.  I am going to go with NOT MUCH at all.   The Jets have Joe Flacco starting for injured Zach Wilson.  Let’s face it,  Flacco wasn’t even necessarily going to make the team, and now he is starting vs a blood thirsty Ravens team who is on their playoff missing revenge tour.  Baltimore finally has a healthy roster and Lamar Jackson showed up early to camp.   I know that there is lots of noise here about Lamar, but the contract situation could only make him better here.  The Jets aren’t quite as healthy as the Ravens being that tackles George Fant, and Conner McDermott are questionable along with Mekhi Becton out for the season and new tackle Duane Brown on injured reserve.   I think the Jets will have a half way decent defense at some point this year, but they will very much struggle to score points.   Lay the wood with Baltimore.

Baltimore -6.5 – 2 stars

Teaser:  Colts to -1 with the Cowboys to +8.5 – 2 stars – The Colts are reeling after missing the playoffs last year and they will start the season against an overrated coach in Lovie Smith who has little talent on this team.   The Cowboys are thin at wide receiver but their two running backs will come in both together with dual sets helping to confuse the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.   Cowboys a home dog here with a lot of talent on the roster.   I also don’t like how Brady left the team for a few weeks during preseason.

Rob V: Sunday Week 1 Sunday NFL

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Sunday card has the 100% Opening Week NFL Play of the Year along with an Executive Level TIER 1, The NFL TOP Level Unsurpassed Totals play and more + MLB and Soccer. NFL Comp Play below.

The NFL Week 1 Comp Play is on the Under in the SF at Chicago game at 1:00 eastern. For our system, we note That in week one, road teams like SF that won at least four of their last five games of the previous season and are not facing a team like Chicago that closed out the season with 2+ wins these teams are 19-46 to the under since 1995. SF had gone under in 7 of the last 8, and the Bears have stayed under in 20 of 27 at home. Though We don’t put too much stock in team angles this early in the season. Look for this game to stay under.On Sunday a huge card is up and led by the late afternoon Perfect System Opening Week Play of the Year, the Executive Level TIER 1 Play, The Unsurpassed Total and 3X Perfect SNF. There is also Top Level MLB System and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to  Jump on and cash out. For the Comp play. Go Under SF at Chicago. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports

O/U: 19-46-0

Team 19.8
Opp 18.9

Sep 11, 2022 view Sunday 1 2022 Fortyniners Bears away -6.5 42.0

Premiums, 9.10

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

We’re done betting on the US Open because I don’t want to mislead any of you and guess at who’s going to win. I like all 4 competitors and there’s obvious value with Jabeur as an underdog, she’s been magnificent, but let’s go out on top and just focus on football this weekend.

Since the UFC card got completely jumbled up, we also added some new plays there. Chimaev goes against Holland and Diaz fights Ferguson now and I think there’s some value there, too. Big day of CFB and UFC, let’s gooo!

 
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (15-7, +6.83 units): Winning!
 
CFB Week 2 Picks (8-7-1, -0.35 units):
Arkansas State/Ohio State over 68 (-110), to win 1 unit
The total doesn’t match the spread (-44) on the Buckeyes, who are bound to explode, at home, after a pedestrian showing on offense against the Irish. Notre Dame has a very formidable defense though (and we knew that, despite being doubted constantly) — can’t say the same thing about Arkansas State. I think Ohio State annihilates their opponent Saturday; they might score 68 themselves.
North Carolina -7 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The only thing that scares me away from this line is that it probably should be more. I know Georgia State isn’t the worst team in the Sun Belt but NC is being graded like a schlep after a near loss to a very formidable App State team when the Mountaineers play at home. I don’t think the Panthers can keep up with the Tar Heels offense.
App State/Texas A&M over 54 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Texas A&M’s defense showed up last week but why the hell wouldn’t they against Sam Houston St. Appalachian State is hungry to keep that offensive momentum going after nearly beating UNC at home last weekend and although an SEC defense may be too much to handle for most possessions, I think App State can get close to 20 points in this. That will create a game narrative where the Aggies play less conservative than they did last week and continue to score against an App State defense that, after last weekend, we know should not be feared.
Tennessee/Pitt under 65.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is too inflated and I expect it to fall. The strength of both of these programs is their defense and although both had higher scoring outputs in Week 1, their opponent will present different problems in this matchup. Regression to the norm and a potentially sloppy day in Pittsburgh add on to our liking the under here.
Parlay Iowa ML and under 40, 1 unit to win 2 units*
* Correlated parlays count towards ATS records, just FYI
Can’t believe in the Iowa State Cyclones after they lost so much talent on offense, going up against their in-state rival who’s owned them the last 5 years, and oh yea– the Hawkeyes might have a better defense than ever. Sloppy as always I’m sure, I think Iowa pulls it out late in another close, defensive battle.
Florida International -13.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
FIU’s offense looks great and Texas State embarrassingly got blown out by one of the worst teams in CFB according to most sharps (Nevada) last Saturday. I don’t think Texas State can keep up — these lower market games are exposable so why not take advantage?
San Jose State/Auburn under 50 (-110), to win 1 unit
Auburn may have the best defense in the SEC this year – please hold, too early to call – but there’s a shot. San Jose State struggled against Portland State in Week 1… When team total props come out we’ll probably bet on SJS under, but for now we’ll take the full game total under. SJS may not score a point.
USC -8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I know it’s on the road at Stanford, a “rivalry,” sure, but I believe in the new-look Trojans and think they could be a powerhouse in the near future again. This line opened at -11, which was too much obviously, and quickly corrected down to 8 before moving back to 8.5. Pure numbers play for me as I have USC winning by 10. I think Stanford could potentially get exposed in this contest, and it’s too early for them to be overly motivated for it. All Trojans for this guy.
UFC 279 Picks (12-12, +11.88 units):
Chimaev in Round 2 (+330), to win 1.65 units
Chimaev in Round 3 (+700), to win 3.5 units
 
Li/Ferguson over 2.5 rounds (-105), to win 1 unit
Ferguson/Diaz- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-118)
Two legends who have insane endurance and don’t punch very hard, they pick at ya. This is setup to be an epic battle, value still on the over.
Chimaev wins within distance (-200), to win 1 unit
Fight goes over 2.5 rounds (+110), to win 1.1 units
Chimaev is a legitimate mad man, if you couldn’t tell already, and he’ll be VERY hated after missing weight and laughing about it during this fight. There’s a legit USA vs. the world narrative going into this and I think Holland survives initially just because of that – he’s motivated to take advantage of this situation and he’s slippery enough to avoid a quick out.
 
Johnny Walker wins (+175), to win 1.75 units
Johnny Walker wins within distance (+335), to win 1.675 units
Johnny Walker losing to Jamahal Hill is not something to be ashamed of. Hill is primed to contend for a Light Heavyweight championship and he’s tearing through the division. Ion Cutelaba is not in the same class as Hill and Johnny Walker must be primed and ready for a better performance. Walker is a freak, explosive athlete who can be a bit out of control at times, but no more than Cutelaba. Ion is infamous for his antics, in the octagon and out, and he’ll be out-sized and significantly out-reached in this fight. Walker takes the win and I think there’s a decent chance he does it before the final bell. I’m unimpressed by Ion.

College Football Week 2 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

South Alabama vs Central Michigan -5 O/U 57.5

This line is a bit of a head scratcher because my number is pretty far off of this line.  I really like how Central Michigan played Oklahoma State last week and they showed a ton of offense that actually outgained the Pokes in yards in the box score.  South Alabama beat up a tomato can in Nichols State last week, and I am really not that impressed with it.  Central Michigan ranked 49th in overall EPA last year while South Alabama ranked 75th on a much easier schedule without having to even play a power 5 team.   I love the fact that Jim McElwain’s team played a good big 12 team here and I think that it helps them prepare better for the season.  I like being on Group of 5 teams that played a tough opponent the week before and I am laying it with the Chippewas.  My number is -12.

Central Michigan -5 – 2.5 stars

Tennessee vs Pittsburgh +6.5 O/U 66

If Alabama Texas isn’t the best this weekend, this game just might be.  Road revenge game here for Tennessee after they lost to Kenny Pickett led Pittsburgh while Hendon Hooker wasn’t really named the starter yet for Tennessee.  Lots of folks are high Tennessee this year, and I like them more as well, but that defense was a sieve last year allowing over 30 points to every top 65 team last year.  I know that Pittsburgh has lost Mark Whipple and Kenny Pickett at quarterback, but Kedon Slovis proved his worth  last week vs West Virginia going 16-24 for over 300 yards.  Pittsburgh is more weak against the run and stronger against the pass, which I think can give them an advantage against an air raid type Josh Heuple offense.  I also like the fact that Pittsburgh can run the ball down their throat tireing their defense and taking momentum away from Tennessee.  This is too many points for a home team here and my number is Tennessee -2 at best.

Pittsburgh +6.5 – 2 stars

 

 

 

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday College Football

By
Rob Vinciletti
-
Saturday CFB Card loaded with 100% Non Conference Game of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Side, the top Unsurpassed Totals Play and a Platinum Supreme going early. We also have MLB September specific Systems and Soccer. CFB Comp Play below.
The CFB Comp play is on Liberty plus 6 at 6:00 eastern. The line is up here with Kadin Salter the backup going and he played well last week in a 4 OT Win. Liberty fits the powerful system below which has cashed 19 of 21 long term for dogs in thus range in the first 4 weeks of the season. Liberty will be tough here as they have covered the last 6 on the road and 5 straight vs winning teams. UAB is a good team but has failed to cover 9 of 10 off a win of 20 or more. Look for Liberty to get the cover. On Saturday a Huge card is up and we have our Non Conference Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, The Unsurpassed TOP level Totals play 2-0 already, an early Platinum Supreme, MLB and Soccer. CFB Already ranked #1 on leader boards for thus year. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we continue to cash out. For the College free play. Take the 6+ points with Liberty. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU:11-10-
ATS:19-2-0
Final
Team25.5
Opp23.8
Sep 07, 2002Saturday32002MIAOIOWAhome24-295.5-50.5LW
Sep 05, 2003Friday32003FRESORSThome16-148.5210.5WW
Sep 06, 2003Saturday32003WAKENCSThome38-247.51421.5WW
Sep 08, 2007Saturday22007WAKENEBhome0-310-107-70-017-208.050.0-35.0-13.0-4.0-9.0LWU0
Sep 06, 2008Saturday22008ECARWVAhome7-010-37-00-024-37.548.02128.5-21.03.8-24.8WWU0
Sep 12, 2009Saturday22009OHSTUSChome7-73-35-00-815-186.545.5-33.5-12.5-4.5-8.0LWU0
Sep 18, 2009Friday32009FRESBOIShome0-1017-1410-107-1734-518.054.0-17-9.031.011.020.0LLO0
Sep 11, 2010Saturday22010UCLASTANhome0-100-30-150-70-356.052.5-35-29.0-17.5-23.25.8LLU0
Sep 18, 2010Saturday32010TEMCONhome0-37-37-1016-030-165.548.01419.5-2.08.8-10.8WWU0
Sep 10, 2011Saturday22011ARMYSDSUhome7-147-00-66-320-239.053.0-36.0-10.0-2.0-8.0LWU0
Sep 17, 2011Saturday32011ARMYNORWhome7-00-77-07-721-146.054.5713.0-19.5-3.2-16.2WWU0
Sep 07, 2012Friday22012UTSTUTAHhome13-00-30-107-727-207.052.5714.0-5.54.2-9.8WWU1
Sep 07, 2013Saturday22013BYUTEXhome10-717-713-70-040-217.057.01926.04.015.0-11.0WWO0
Sep 14, 2013Saturday32013ECARVTCHhome7-70-03-60-210-157.546.5-52.5-21.5-9.5-12.0LWU0
Sep 14, 2013Saturday32013OHUMRSHhome7-710-37-710-1434-317.068.5310.0-3.53.2-6.8WWU0
Sep 04, 2014Thursday22014UTSAARZhome7-109-100-67-023-267.555.0-34.5-6.0-0.8-5.2LWU0
Sep 13, 2014Saturday32014SCARGEOhome14-1010-37-77-1538-356.059.539.013.511.22.2WWO0
Sep 17, 2015Thursday32015LOUCLEMhome0-03-77-107-317-205.554.0-32.5-17.0-7.2-9.8LWU0
Sep 15, 2018Saturday32018PURMIZhome7-1317-143-1010-337-406.067.0-33.010.06.53.5LWO0
Sep 14, 2019Saturday32019WVANCSThome14-77-1410-613-044-276.549.01723.522.022.8-0.8WWO0
Sep 11, 2021Saturday22021BYUUTAHhome3-013-77-03-1026-177.050.5916.0-7.54.2-11.8WWU0
Sep 10, 2022 Saturday 2 2022 LIB UAB home 6.5 50

College Football Saturday Free Play – Aubie Is The Answer

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Free Saturday Play for Week 2 in College Football features the San Jose State Spartans vs the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

This is the second tune-up game for the Tigers before Penn State rolls in and the gauntlet that is the SEC West begins. They handled Mercer last weekend 42-16. San Jose State makes its third trip to the Plains in the last decade and will roll in after beating Portland State 21-17 securing the win in the final two minutes.

The Spartans really struggled against Portland State and should have lost that game. They had major issues in the trenches against Portland State who has a lineup that does feature a slew of FBS transfers. They had Portland State defenders in the backfield when on offense all night. On the defensive side of the ball they didn’t record a sack and only had a few negative plays created. They were out-gained 395-288, but were able to survive thanks to a goal line stand and two key interceptions.

Auburn controlled the game vs Mercer while two QBs Robby Ashford and TJ Finley battled for the starting gig. Tank Bigsby ran for 147 yards and 2 Touchdowns, and Jarquez Hunter found the end-zone three times. The defense dominated until the rain delay in the third quarter holding Mercer to under 100 yards up to that point. They called the dogs off for most of the second half and played vanilla defense.

In this match-up the key will be the Auburn defense vs Chevan Cordeiro who is a solid QB for the Spartans. He has great escapeability. He’s gonna need it as he was running for his life against Portland State and now he has to face what is likely a Top 3 SEC front seven? Good luck. They only managed 49 yards rushing vs Portland State and now they have to face what is likely a Top 3 SEC front seven? Good luck. I think SJSU is going to get lucky to score in this game unless its garbage time. Let’s say they get a turnover and punch it in maybe they get to 7.

When Auburn has the ball they will face a stiffer test running it as SJSU has two Defensive ends that could play on Sundays in Cade Hall and Viliami Fehoko. That being said, they should still dominate at the point of attack and will find some success with big plays running the ball. Finley threw 2 picks against Mercer after a solid beginning and he will likely get first crack at it on Saturday. I think Finley will improve after getting the first game jitters out and Ashford won’t play quite as much as they will look to get the passing game locked in before Penn State. Bigsby and the OL will dominate again and Auburn should score easily if not quickly when they have the ball.

Take Auburn -23.5. for 2 Units. I also Lean Under.

NFL Week 1 Sharp Line Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 9/7/22
Sharp money on:

  • The Dolphins hosting the Patriots -2.5 to -3.5 65% tickets and 70% of the money.  Value is gone and movement is slowing coming back.
  • Jaguars at Commanders +4 to +2.5 – 62% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Texans hosting the Colts +8 to +7 – 46% tickets and 87% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Buccaneers vs Cowboys under 52 to 50 – 65% of the tickets and 96% of the money.
1...270271272...665Page 271 of 665