Believe it or not, our picks in CFB will improve, too. Looking at the last few weeks, this is no doubt one of the harder starts I’ve ever had at the beginning of a football season. Some putrid bad beats and variance haven’t helped.
Wouldn’t blame you if you faded me or went the other way. Still giving you picks, it’s my job.
CFB Week 5 (16-21-2, -10.36 units):
Lean, BYU -24
Just a huge line so I don’t want any part of it, but it sets up for a huge BYU win.
Kentucky +6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Ole Miss hasn’t exactly faced the class of college football so far and their game against Tulsa, where they didn’t cover, feels like a red flag. Kentucky will start their backup but Kentucky’s defense and disciplined coaching can keep them in the game. Ole Miss’ pass defense is VERY questionable, too. Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky) takes over and a stingy defense keeps Kentucky close all game.
Illinois/Wisconsin under 43 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice response spot for the Badgers, at home, after a nice big slice of humble pie last week against the mighty Buckeyes. Illinois will struggle to score and Wisconsin needs this win to stay relevant. Testy game between two rivals — love the under.
JMU -22 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some may say this is a prime let-down spot after JMU’s huge win against Appalachian St but I disagree. Texas State is among the worst teams in college football; getting thrashed by Nevada proved that; and a team like JMU, who’s not heralded or used to the national attention, should only use that last win to elevate their motivation and focus. Their secondary will be a HUGE problem for Texas St. Laying the points with the home star.
Navy +14 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Two academies going at it and are we SURE that Air Force (my branch) is THAT much better than Navy? I’m not. Not impressed by their wins and Navy has played better as of late. Gotta go with the dog.
Kansas ML (+130), to win 1.3 units
Yea I just don’t think Iowa State is very good. Great spot for the Jayhawks to get a win at home and their offense has been very efficient.
Utah -10.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Oregon State shot their load last week, impressively holding back USC’s dynamic offense throughout the contest (until the 4th quarter, of course). That’s a huge let down for the Beavers last week and now they have to waltz into Salt Lake City to face a Utah team that’s far more impressive in defense and offensive production. Kyle Hunter likes the under in this one, but liked it more at 55 and 56. Just something to note.
Michigan State +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Another example of two teams who are heading into this contest feeling opposite ways. Michigan State got ransacked by Minnesota last weekend, no bueno, while MD actually looked impressive and comparable to the mighty Wolverines. This is a classic example of “no team is as good or as bad as one game,” and that’s especially true in a Big 10 rivalry.
USC 1Q -7 (-120), to win 1 unit
USC TT over 43.5 points (-110), to win 1 unit
Perfect setup for the Trojans to explode on offense after being held back and Arizona State, as an organization and especially on their defense, is a complete mess right now. USC dominates from start to finish and I love a blowout here. Lean USC -26 but I see more value in their TT over — AZ State will struggle to stop that in any regard.
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The United States remains in control of the President’s Cup knocking off the International team 17.5 – 12.5. In terms of storylines, there were so many great moments. Tom Kim rose to the occasion and looks to become a budding superstar. Jordan Spieth took all five of his matches becoming the first person to do so since Jim Furyk in 2011. Max Homa also went undefeated winning all four of his matches. In terms of the bad, let’s talk about Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 1 struggled in his debut winning just half a point. In his singles match on Sunday, he lost to Sebastian Munoz, currently ranked 64th. The Canadians, Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners, also struggled for the International team with them both failing to record a single point.
Now onto the Sanderson Farms, a tournament that recently became a full-status event. It’s been held at the Country Club of Jackson since 2014. Historically you need to go low if you want to win this as seen by Sam Burns last year posting a 22 under par. While it isn’t the best of fields, it does provide the opportunity to find some diamonds in the rough.
The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914 but was moved to its current location in 1962. The course was redesigned from 2007 to 2008 by John Fought and Mike Gogel. During this renovation, the course was lengthened and several greens were adjusted.
In 2014, the Country Club of Jackson officially became the new home for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Starting in the 2019-20 season, this tournament was upgraded to a full status event and moved to late September.
72-Hole Record (CC of Jackson): 266, Sam Burns (2021)
18-Hole Record (CC of Jackson): 62, Roberto Castro (1st round, 2015).
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Dogwood-Azalea course at the Country Club of Jackson was designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel. “Dogwood” refers to the front nine and “Azalea” refers to the back nine. It is a Par 72 that plays 7,461 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. In terms of the rough, it’s some of the least penal on Tour. Water comes into play on five holes but mainly on the Par 3’s.
The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 223 yards. Last year, holes No. 7 and No. 10 were the only two to have a scoring average over par.
No. 10 is the longest of the Par 3’s playing just over 220 yards. Off the tee, there doesn’t appear to be many challenges. It’s slightly downhill with bunkers guarding the front right and left. However, the difficulty of this hole all depends on one thing, the pin placement.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest listed at 330 with the longest being No. 18, just over 500 yards.
No. 16 is the signature hole on this course. It’s a challenging par 4 that can be attacked in a variety of ways. Players chose to take it up the left or right side with each option having its advantages and disadvantages. On their approach shot, they’ll face a creek along the left side of the green with bunkers guarding the right. Last year, this was the most difficult Par 4 on the course with a scoring average of 4.163.
The four Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. Only one of these Par 5’s is over 600 yards (No. 5). In terms of difficulty, No. 5 is the hardest but still had a scoring average below par like the others.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Sam Burns (+1100), is the favorite for this week’s event and will look to defend his title from last season. This event sparked a career year for him where he would go on to win two other events. He’s the only American team member from the President’s Cup that’s in the field for this week. At Quail Hollow, he finished with only a point going 0-3-2 in his five matches. Outside of the President’s Cup, we last saw him compete at East Lake where he would finish 24th.
Sahith Theegala (+2000) is coming off a strong performance at the Fortinet Championship finishing T6. Last year in the Sanderson Farms Championship he finished T8.
Russel Henley (+2500) has only played in this event twice before finishing T14 in 2016 and T54 in 2019. His last start on Tour was at the BMW Championship where he finished T35 failing to qualify for East Lake.
JT Poston (+2700) had a great end of the year winning the John Deere Classic and finishing T35 or better in his last five starts. At the TOUR Championship, he played well finishing T15. He missed the cut at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship but finished T3 in 2020.
Denny McCarthy (+2900) has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. His last start on Tour was at the Fortinet Championship where he finished T25.
Previous Winners in the field; Sam Burns (’21), Sebastian Munoz (’19), Cameron Champ (’18), Ryan Armour (’17), Cody Gribble (’16), Peter Malnati (’15), Nick Taylor (’14), Scott Stallings (’12), and Chris Kirk (’11).
Notable Withdraws: Sebastian Munoz, Cameron Champ, Danny Lee
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Denny McCarthy (+2900): MC/T7/T18/6/T17
Henrik Norlander (+10000): T72/T39/MC/T4/T4
CT Pan (+15000): MC/T12/T11
William McGirt (+25000): T27/T5/T26/T7/T2/T25/MC/T17
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Sepp Straka (+5000): MC/MC/MC/MC
Brendon Todd (+6600): T72/T14/MC/MC/MC/MC
Kramer Hickok (+15000): MC/MC/MC/MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Sam Burns (-22)
Price: 16-1
2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
Price: 70-1
2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
Price: 66-1
2018: Cameron Champ (-21)
Price: 66-1
2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
Price: 125-1
Picks (Outrights):
Davis Riley (+4000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Thomas Detry (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Thomas Detry was able to secure his PGA Tour card with a top 25 finish in the Korn Ferry Tour standings last month. In his first Tour event of the season, he played well finishing T12 at the Fortinet Championship. Dating back to last season, he’s finished inside the top 40 in every PGA Tour event he competed in (five). He ranks well in the key categories this week and with his putting trending in the right direction, he has a shot.
Taylor Moore (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Harris English (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Trey Mullinax (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Trey Mullinax is an Alabama native and should have some support this week from the fans. In his first start this year, he struggled missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship. The main reason is his play on the green. Last year at the Country Club of Jackson, he finished T4. In terms of a course fit, Mullinax ranks near the top. The main issue for him has been his putting. While he’s struggled on most surfaces, he seems to enjoy the champion bermudagrass. He gained the most strokes putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship out of every tournament he played in last year. Given the improvements in his short game, if he can putt well again, he should do well.
Davis Thompson (+13000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Joseph Bramlett (+13000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Sam Ryder (+30000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.03 to win 9.00 Units
Sam Ryder is my long shot of the week. In terms of course history, he hasn’t faired well missing the cut in four of his five appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. However, last year was the first time he did make it and would go on to finish T51. Two weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship, he missed the cut losing a lot of strokes around the green. Ryder can go low and does favor bermudagrass as seen in his strokes gained. In terms of his ability, the strong points of his game are his approach play, and putting. He’s also not long off the tee but is very accurate. If he’s able to figure out his tee game, I think he can compete given his iron and green play.
Just Missed: Taylor Montgomery (+3000), Scott Stallings (+3000)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sahith Theegala (+130) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Sahith Theegala has been trending towards his first career PGA Tour victory for a while now. He nearly closed out the Travelers Championship and finished T6 last week at the Fortinet Championship. Theegala has played in the Sanderson Farms once before where he finished T8. He shot three sub-70 rounds before struggling on Sunday posting a 71. At that event, he gained strokes in every category besides Around the Green. In these “birdie-fest” events, Theegala is a great fit ranking 1st in Birdie or Better %.
Denny McCarthy (+180) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
Denny McCarthy enters the Sanderson Farms Championship off a T25 finish at Silverado Resort & Spa (Fortinet Championship). He’s been playing well as of late finishing last year’s season with a T20 at the FedEx St Jude Championship and a T28 at the BMW Championship. In terms of course history, he’s a match as he’s finished inside the top-20 in each of his last four appearances here. He’s above average in terms of distance off the tee which gives him an advantage on this long course. If we look at his strokes gained stats at the Country Club of Jackson he’s done well in every category. His approach play can be worrisome at times with the larger greens he’s shown he can have success here.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Byeong-Hun An (+120) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Byeong-Hun An is coming off a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship gaining strokes in every category besides approach. He was on the PGA Tour in 2016 and struggled but after grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, An was able to secure his PGA Tour card for this year. An has competed at the Sanderson Farms Championship twice before, once in 2019 where he finished T4, and again in 2020 where he, unfortunately, missed the cut. Off the tee, he can pound the ball and while his accuracy is an issue, there’s room to miss on this course. His approach play can also be worry some at times but as we saw last week the rest of his game can make up for it. With some newfound momentum and course familiarity, he seems like a great fit.
Justin Lower (+125) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
After a T36 finish at the Wyndham Championship and some help from the LIV Tour defectors, he moved into the top-125 of the FedEx Cup Standings earning his fully exempt 2022-23 PGA Tour status. Lower started off the season strong with a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship. Starting the final round he had a 1-shot lead but played himself out of contention on Sunday. He gained strokes in every category specifically putting and off the tee. This will be his first time playing in this event but based off his play, he should be a great fit. As we know, good drives and putting are crucial this week, both areas he excels at. In his last start on Champion Bermudagrass (Wyndham Championship), Lower ranked 24th in the field in strokes gained putting. While he isn’t necessarily long off the tee, he makes up for it in accuracy. He’s finished inside the top-40 in five of his last six starts on Tour and looks to be poised to do so again here.
Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sanderson Farms Championship: 5.03 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
I bring an MLB record of 160-147-6, +5.97u into tonight and will be sticking with 1 play to kick off the week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners -1.5(+105) vs Rangers–8:40 PM CT
Mariners SP Robbie Ray has been phenomenal at T-Mobile Park this season, bringing a 2.73 ERA and 0.95 WHIP into tonight’s start. For as good as the Rangers have handled lefties at home, that has simply not translated to their road matchups. Since August 1st, Texas holds a measly 63 wRC+ vs lefties on the road, good for 26th in the league over that span.
The Rangers will use Jesus Tinoco as their opener before leaving the bulk of the work to Tyson Miller. Miller has thrown just 6 career innings at the big league level; in AAA this year, he looked anything but impressive(4.52 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9). This Mariners offense can be inconsistent, but they have proven to be plenty capable of taking advantage of minor league arms like this.
Not only do the Mariners hold a significant starting pitching advantage, but by nature of having the 2nd best bullpen in baseball that is off a day of rest, they will also hold a massive edge in the later innings. Considering the clear mismatch on the mound, I don’t believe we should be getting this at plus-money.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev talks about the good, the bad, and the ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 5! Finally, Kiev and D-Nasty get into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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49ers vs Denver +1.5 O/U 40.5
These two teams are almost familiar with each other being that Russell Wilson has faced Kyle Shanahan quite a few times already. Russell is 4-0 since 2019 against the 49ers himself and 15-3 since 2014. The thing that isn’t familiar in this situation is a freshman coach in Nathanial Hackett going against a darn good NFL coach in Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco lost Trey Lance last week to a season ending injury, but Jimmy G is the better quarterback by a good amount. I had to upgrade the 49ers two points in my power ratings due to this change. Last year, Jimmy G ranked 4th in quarterback EPA plus completion percentage over expectation. On the Broncos side, it is clear to see that Russell Wilson is an upgrade over what they had last year, but it isn’t enough early in the season to trust that him and his new team is fluid. Denver is really banged up at wide receiver right now, and other than Trey Lance, the 49ers look pretty healthy to me coming into this game. George Kittle should be back who is Jimmy G’s favorite pass catcher. I got +2 on San Francisco earlier in the week but I still like it under the three. Take the 9ers.
49ers -1.5 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs NY Jets +6 O/U 45.5
Do you like the stock market? Do you believe in buy low sell high? Well there isn’t a game that has more overreaction to the last two weeks than this one. The Bengals haven’t lead a game for the whole season as of yet, but the talent on this team is still tremendous. The Jets, even though they have won last week still have massive issue at the offensive line. New York can’t stop the run for the life of them no matter what they do. This NY Jets team should have lost to the Browns by 13 points last week while the Bengals should have won at least one of the last two games here in the NFL football season looking at their box scores. Take the Bungles
Huge Sunday card up with NFC WEST Game of the Year , Executive Level TIER 1 in the Battle of the Bays and Sunday night 100% MLB Game of the Month. NFL Sides 10-2 run. Saturday TOP Plays $$ big with Middle Tennessee and Baylor. NFL Play below
The NFL Play for Sunday is on the NYJ at 1:00 eastern. The Jets are taking 4-5 points here at home and are off a record-setting win coming back from 13 down with under 90 seconds left in a 31-30 road dog win in Cleveland. That win changes the whole mindset of this team now and puts them in a perfect system dating to 2006. We are playing on home dogs that scored 30 or more in a road dog win and were home in their prior game vs. an opponent like Cincy that is off a loss in week 10 or earlier games. There have been 5 home dogs that qualified, and each won outright.The Host in the series has covered 8 of 10, and the Jets are 5-0 to the spread in the series at home and pulled off a massive upset 34-31 last year as a 12-point dog here against the Bengals. The Bengals are now 0-2 after falling short in Dallas, and 0-2 road favorites have not done well historically. In fact, the Bengals are 1-14 to the spread in the first 4 games of a season off a loss with revenge against a .500 or better opponent. Look for the Jets at the very least to get the cover here. On Sunday Rob has another huge card up led by his Members only plays See us on facebook/twitter to jump on, For the NFL Comp play. Take the Jets. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
