As of Wednesday 9/7/22
Sharp money on:
Sharp Totals:
I’ve released by Best Bets and other official plays for the Week 2 CFB slate. However, I’ve quietly enjoyed a nice 3-1 week in MLB and have locked in 1 official play on this Friday slate. I am likely to add a couple of more official CFB plays at some point today; join my Telegram group to receive a text if I do so.
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-130) vs Nationals–6:05 PM CT
Nationals SP Patrick Corbin has been an easy fade all season, and his numbers worsen considerably on the road(7.95 ERA, 1.93 WHIP). This Phillies lineup has pounded him in their two prior meetings, amassing an incredible 15 runs off of Corbin in just 4 innings this year. The Phillies’ lineup can be a bit inconsistent, but since July 1st, they do hold a pretty steady 117 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. The addition of Bryce Harper off of the IL boosts this lineup’s potential considerably. Corbin’s struggles are not anything new; he has been one of the worst qualifying SP’s in baseball for 3 years now. When you combine that with the Phillies’ track record against him, we should not be getting 2.5 at this reasonable of a price.
As of Wednesday 9/7/22
Sharp money on:
Sharp Totals:
Another winning night in Tennis, and we win our first NFL bet! Let’s see if I can get through this email without any damn typos. Added more CFB picks (in red), we have one US Open play for today, and it’s likely I will send out the final (final final) NFL picks list today. Gotta put a bow on it eventually. Football baby! Let’s goooo!
Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 13-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Lamar Jackson, QB: $7,300. Jackson didn’t play in the Pre-season but I don’t expect him to come out rusty. There is something to be said for motivation when playing for a contract. I think Jackson has a big year and it starts vs the Jets. NYJ had the worst YPG allowed in 2021 and while they improved in some places adding Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson in the first round this year, the unit still leaves a lot to be desired. The Jets allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2021 and Mark Andrews should be Lamar’s prime target.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,600. Not sure if you’ve heard or not, but Derrick Henry is healthy. He only played 8 games in 2021, but he found the end-zone 3 times in a game in 3 of those contests. The opponent for the Titans on Sunday is the Giants who gave up 129 YPG on the ground last year. I expect the Titans to be in control late and Henry to close this one out earning plenty of points along the way.
Dameon Pierce, RB: $4,800. I know what you are saying. Knoche, I thought you said High-Floor guys here? Well I did, but I still need to fit into the salary cap and with spending up for Jackson and Henry I have to find some value here and at Flex and WR2. Typically when I build lineups I find my top 2 selections and my DEF and then work backwards from there. Lovie said Pierce is starting and for me that is good enough at this price to get him in lineups. I actually think he will be in a very high percentage of lineups Sunday. Now its possible the Colts run away with this game early, but I don’t think so. Week 1 Divisional Home Dogs are 19-4 ATS going back to 2009. The spread may be 7, but I think the Texans keep it close enough to get Pierce 15+ touches and maybe he can find the end-zone. Rex Burkhead will steal some touches on passing downs.
Skyy Moore, WR: $3,800. Moore will slot into Mecole Hardman’s role in the Chiefs high-powered attack and is a huge value at this price. Hardman averaged over 5 targets a game last year. While Mecole only found the end-zone twice look for Skyy who I think is far more talented to land there often. He will be the KC deep threat as that is where he was targeted in the Pre-season and it’s possible he pushes Hardman for some of Tyreek Hill’s snaps as well.
Jarvis Landry, WR: $5,000. With Michael Thomas coming back Landry will likely be Jameis #2 option. Thomas is however still recovering from his hamstring issue and I expect Landry to get plenty of targets. With Thomas drawing the top coverage options and schemes look for Jameis to view Landry like Crab Legs at a Publix.
Marquise Brown, WR: $6,200. Hollywood Brown should be the top option for Kyler Murray and the Cards should be chasing points against Kansas City. The Chiefs secondary lost 3 starters from last year and while I like Trent McDuffie, I don’t think this unit is as strong as 2021 and they weren’t great then. I like him to find pay-dirt in this one.
Mark Andrews, TE: $6,800. I mentioned him earlier, and I was actually surprised all the top TE options were as cheap as they are. Look for him to be targeted early, often and in the Red Zone. In the 12 games Jackson played last year Andrews had double digit targets in 5 of them. My only fear here is if the Ravens get up big in the first half they may slow things down in the second half.
Olamide Zaccheaus, Flex: $4,000. Well I don’t think highly of Olamide, but with Calvin Ridley out for the year and Drake London questionable he should get plenty of looks. Mariota played sparingly in the pre-season but I did like the ways the Falcons schemed him. He’s still better than Geno Smith and he has to throw it to someone besides Kyle Pitts.
Tennessee, DST: $3,500. Think of this as a stack with Derrick Henry. The Giants were 31st on offense in YPG in 2021. DO they get Sequon Barkley back? Yes. Will he be the answer to getting the rushing game going? Yes. Will it be week 1 against the Titans? No. Mike Vrabel goes all out to stop the run and Sunday will be no different. The Giants were also 26th in Turnover Margin per game and I like that with Daniel Jones likely to have to throw the ball late in this one.
THE NFL IS BACK!
Like most of you, I am incredibly excited to watch some meaningful NFL games.
Tonight’s match-up is a great way to kick off the NFL season, a match-up that could be considered a potential Super Bowl Preview! We get the Super Bowl LVII favorites in the Buffalo Bills traveling to Los Angeles to face the Super Bowl champion Rams.
Allen Robinson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-125 DraftKings)
The Bills’ only weakness is in the secondary, especially early this season. Their All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White is recovering from an ACL tear and will now have to rely on rookie Kaiir Elam and second-year man Dane Jackson. Last Season Jackson had a defensive grade of 58.1 by PFF, which was ranked 82nd in the NFL.
With that being said, the Bills have two of the best safeties in the league. Jordan Poyer (#12) and Micah Hyde (#5) both rank in the top 15 in defensive grades among safeties per PFF. I expect one of them will be helping with double-coverage on Cooper Kupp most of the game, leaving Robinson one-on-one.
With the total set at 52.5 points, I assume we will see some offensive fireworks.
My favorite time of the year has arrived – football season! And with that, I’ve decided to expand my arsenal from WNBA/NBA to include college football. I know I’m a week behind, but going forward I’ll be posting college football picks each week. I’m super excited to see what type of success this season brings and hope you join me!
Boise State -17, 1 unit*
Boise State looked awful in Week 1 against Oregon State, but I’m going to throw that game out the window. They were atrocious in nearly every aspect of the game, yet I don’t think that’s a fair reflection of who this team really is. I don’t know what happened with the Broncos last weekend, but that’s not the team we’re going to see moving forward.
There is a reason that the Broncos have the second-best odds to win the Mountain West Mountain division and we’re going to see that on Friday. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier – if he gets the start – isn’t going to throw three interceptions in the first quarter again. That took Boise State out of the game before it even got started and created a hole that was too big for them to climb out of. And if head coach Andy Avalos decides to start Taylen Green, I have confidence in the redshirt freshman based on what we saw from him in the later part of that game.
Although 17 is a big number, this still feels like a bit of a buy-low spot for Bosie State. The Broncos have a solid defensive front and an overall unit that ranked second in the conference to start the season. Not to mention New Mexico only has two starters returning to its offensive line. Now, the Lobos did beat Maine 41-0 last week, but let’s be real… It’s Maine.
Boise State has manhandled New Mexico in the past, winning each of the previous three meetings by 31 points. They’re coming off a terrible loss, so I expect them not only to be hyper-focused on this matchup but also pissed off and ready to show the college football world what type of a team they really are. I could see the Broncos winning by 20+ so I’ll happily lay -17.
Duke +10, 1 unit*
Is Northwestern’s offense really as good as it showed in Week 0 against Nebraska? I don’t think so. That win from Northwestern was more of a result of Nebraska’s defense – and Scott Frost’s poor decision-making – than it was NU’s offense proving to be high-powered. This line feels like a bit of an overreaction from their win in Dublin. Plus it feels like it could be a bit of a letdown spot for the Cats, coming back home to play a non-conference opponent. Don’t get me wrong, I still think NU wins this game but I don’t think they cover -10.
Duke looked solid offensively against Temple, winning 30-0. Their defense held the Owls to just 172 total yards and Blue Devils QB Riley Leonard was nearly perfect while also leading the team in rushing with 64 yards. I take all of that with a grain of salt though, because after all, they did play Temple. Still, I saw some bright spots from the Dukies and I’m not sure I’m fully onboard the Northwestern train yet. Take the points with Duke.
Kentucky +6, 1 unit*
Hold up. Wasn’t Florida a 2-point underdog last week against Utah? Now you’re telling me that one win, in which it took an endzone interception in the final seconds for the Gators to win, and all of a sudden they’re six points better than a Kentucky team that’s ranked 20th. I don’t buy it.
Anthony Richardson showed that he’s quite the stud, but Kentucky is going to try and take away his ability to make plays with his feet which is a lot of what led Florida to success in Week 1. The Wildcats’ linebackers are solid and that’s going to force Richardson to have to throw the ball more. On the flip side, Will Levis is an NFL prospect QB that’s going to look to take advantage of Florida’s secondary after they showed some trouble against the Utes. Kentucky hasn’t won in the Swamp in a longggg time, but they’ll at least give themselves a chance to pull out the upset by keeping this game close.
Stay tuned for Week 3 plays next week! In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
I released my Week 2 Best Bets yesterday but have added 2 more plays since. I wouldn’t be surprised if I add a play or two more closer to Saturday, so be sure to join my Telegram group to receive a text when I release any and all plays!
2021 CFB: 106-88-1, +27.35u
2022 CFB: 5-6, -0.82u
*CFB(1u): Wisconsin 1H -9.5 vs Washington State–Sat 9/10; 2:30 PM CT
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State -11 vs Arizona State–Sat 9/10; 6:30 PM CT
Mike Gundy has had every style of offense under the sun during his time at Oklahoma State. While many link him to more of an aggressive, pass-first style of attack(think of 2011 Brandon Weedon and/or 2017 Mason Rudolph), he opted for a run-heavy attack last year due to how elite his defense was. If Game 1 was any indication, Gundy is back to his more aggressive ways with a 4th year starting QB in Spencer Sanders. I know Sanders has had his ups-and-downs in Stillwater, but I believe he is poised for a breakout year. In the opener, he threw the ball 41 times for 406 yards, 4 TD’s, and 0 picks. Sanders is also a massive threat as a runner, and he ran for 57 yards and 2 scores in the Opener. This Arizona State defense is vulnerable given that they lack much of a pass rush and can be had in their depleted secondary. I expect Oklahoma State to win up front and give Sanders time to do his thing. We’ve seen plenty of QB’s like Sanders who played mediocre for most of their career and then finally put it together in their senior year; Kenny Pickett from just last year fit that same bill.
Arizona State is, quite frankly, a dead beat program. This is a team that lost 17 players to the portal this offseason and had 6 coaches resign after the NCAA announced it would crack down on the program for recruiting violations. Herm Edwards added Florida’s Emory Jones to run the offense; in and of itself, I don’t think that’s a bad move. However, much like last year, Jones has little to work with at the WR position. Jones is another dual-threat guy, but it’s hard to see him fixing his turnover issues with his stable of WR’s and a spotty OL. Arizona State does have a pretty good run game, but I think that plays into Oklahoma State’s strength which is undoubtedly the Front 7. I was encouraged at how they stopped the run vs CMU after losing a lot at that position off last year’s team. A lot was made of Oklahoma State allowing 44 points in Week 1, but half of those points came in the 4Q with Oklahoma State playing 2nd-3rd team DB’s. Oklahoma State is going to be able to hold up against the run, get pressure on Jones and force him into mistakes.
My read on Arizona State coming into the year is that they wouldn’t step up in competition particularly well. With the hits they took this offseason, I have a hard time seeing them hang with superior teams for 4 quarters. Ultimately, Mike Gundy’s shift back to an aggressive offense and Oklahoma State’s edge in the trenches will get me on them officially.
The NFL is back! I can’t believe it is that time of the year already and boy am I amped. The action tonight should be exhilarating as we have two league heavy weights squaring off and dare I say a possible Super Bowl Preview? A lot of football to occur before we get too ahead of ourselves. Time to buckle up and get dialed in as we have 6 months of action to look forward to.
Remember it is not too late to sign up for my NFL Premium Pick Package for the entire year! Link at bottom of page!
Bills -2.5 -110 2 Units
Always looking for angles and I locked this in 2 weeks ago when I saw Aaron Donald go double handed Rambo with two helmets at Bengals players. Immediately jumped on the Bills @ -2.5 thinking a suspension was coming and the line would eventually move above 3. But mistakenly forgot there is no rhyme or reason with the NFL and how they handle their disciplinary procedures. The line since then moved back to 2 so hopefully some of you got it when it was there (I should have just taken it immediately when it came out at 1-1.5, but here we are), now it is back at -2.5 and all is well in the world not being screwed (yet) with CLV. We are still under a key number of 3, but let’s dive into why the Bills are poised to win on the road opening night against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
First off we all know the LA fanbase is not real. In fact the entire city of LA is fake. SoFi Stadium imported $24,000 in Labatte Blue in preparation for the Bills Mafia arrival. There is no home field advantage for the Rams here with this road crowd tuned up. Bills are coming into this season with chip on their shoulder feeling they got robbed by a coin flip to end their Super Bowl campaign in 2022. Whether you disagree or not that a coin flip determined the outcome of a playoff game in 2022 (as many debated), we can’t debate the fact that the Bills showed they were poised to travel into rowdy KC playoff atmosphere in January and compete with the leagues best. Traveling into SoFi in September is going to put this team at a disadvantage? I don’t think so.
It’s no secret this has potential to be a heavy weight boxing match, exchanging blow after blow back and forth. There is so much talent on both sides of the field. Where I find an edge is the dynamic athletic ability of Josh Allen vs Matthew Stafford. Josh Allen has the ability to turn any play at any time into positive production. He can do it all from breaking tackles, throwing on the run outside the pocket, massive arm strength, and dialed in accuracy… he is it. Stafford at 34 is still slinging the ball as we saw it last year. However, the talks of the elbow injury that is going to be with him all season is a cause for concern. It is week 1 so it should not factor too much in his performance. Both great QBs in their own right, but what sets them apart? The mental hunger for themselves and their organization. Stafford and the Rams are on cloud nine, they did it… achieved greatness and McVay and Stafford shut up the haters. Josh Allen and the Bills want that and need it. It starts tonight.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from @WAGERTALK comes on to break down a massive weekend! First, Kiev talks about all of the smelly home dogs in the NFL this week! Should be a crazy week 1 for survivor! Next, Marco comes on and the guys get into the ins and outs of betting week 1 NFL football. Then, the guys get into the full slate of games with some leans and some FREE PLAYS that hopefully will cash you some tickets. After that, Kiev gets into some college football game and FREE PLAYS for week 2. Next, Kiev talks some UFC 279 with a few creative plays that can cash big. Finally, we get into College and NFL sharp money! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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