NFL Free Play: Doubling Down!

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September 24, 2022

Week 3 is among us already! We are still settling in trying to find out each team’s true identity. That does not come quick in this league and still very important to stick to your process and trust your instincts. No knee jerk reactions here after week 2. Dialed back in and have drawn up 2 plays I really like for Sunday.

Current 2022 NFL Record: 14-11 +2.57 Units

Min -6 -110 1 Unit

The MNF woes continued for Kirk Cousins….bad, like really bad. I faded that angle last week and felt very confident doing so. Chose to focus more on Kirk’s record and production vs Philly, rather than the fact he can’t handle pondering a game all day which leads to the spotlight on him in primetime. It was a bad game all around for the Vikings. Defensively in the first half, a dropped wide open TD pass by Irv Smith, and tunnel visioned Kirk only throwing the ball to Darius Slay’s chest.

Now how do the Vikings and Cousins respond after that horrible week 2 performance? Looking back at all of the games Cousins lost on Monday night prior to last Monday (9), he has a record of 5-4 the following week. So obviously that is nothing too inspiring and doesn’t tell us anything one way or the other. Some people love trends and some people hate them. Last season was an up and down season for the Vikings… could never get a true pulse of the team. One consistent trend they had was when they lost on the road they were 4-0 the following week they had a home game. That includes 4-0 ATS. What really stands out to me is how big this line is.

This year Lions feel different, they are not the same pushover team and automatic win. Washington found that out last week. We saw the Lions hang in there with Philly week 1 and come storming back in the 4th Qtr to cover +4. Lions are a covering machine. The same Philly team who just completely handled Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Still this line is sitting at 6? That’s a pretty big line, we know lions cover well, and I feel Vegas is begging you to take it at +6. Lions have been one of the few fortunate teams to start out with both games at home. Now they have to travel for the first time this year and looking back at last season their first two games on the road did not fare well for them. One of them being a very similar situation going against a division rival in Green Bay who was blown out the week prior. The Lions lost by double digits. Yes, different years and different teams, but we can only go off of the information we have. This is Dan Campbells second season as HC for the Lions, maybe there’s a reason his Lions don’t travel well on the road in September or maybe that was a one off issue. However for us right now its information to give us a possible angle.

Before the season started a TON of handicappers and the public loved the Vikings. The new coach and a loaded roster in a division that feels more reachable with the lack of WR depth for Green Bay. We see one bad game by Kirk Cousins on MNF and we are going to abandon that take? I don’t think so. This is the game where Kirk shows up at home, bounces back, and proves us all right about this team and its talent. Vikings BLOW OUT the Lions and Goff comes back down to earth from last week.

NCAAF Total Play

By

Kristobal Lundborg

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September 24, 2022

346 Florida State v Boston College UN 48*

Florida State comes into this one with some serious injury questions with their QB nicked up and potential losses on the OL. BC looks to have all but abandoned their run game under new OC John McNulty (former Notre Dame OC), which hasn’t helped their star QB Jurkovec or their defense thus far. BC’s offense comes into this one T-113th for points per game. BC will get some offense going at some point, but I don’t see it happening in this one. BC’s defense seems to be no slouch despite their offensive woes, they come in ranked 42nd in avg total yards allowed.

FSU’s defense appears to have significantly improved as they are 46th in avg yards allowed. FSU HC Mike Norvell seems to have pivoted from his reputation of a high paced offense to their success, now ranking only T-79th in plays per game. Although the total has been pushed down to the key number of 48, I still like the under.

Been a busy summer but we’ve still been putting out plenty of plays at the Patreon. Fade or follow!

College Football Week 4 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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September 24, 2022

Iowa vs Rutgers +7.5 O/U 34.5

This game is absolutely disgusting and a beg you not to watch it. In saying that, I think it is worth betting on just due to the fact that Iowa is laying points. I honestly do not understand how Iowa should be laying points to any team with a slight pulse. This team is 125th in offensive EPA averaging 13.7 points per game. Spencer Petras is below 50% completion percentage, and that is counting games vs South Dakota State and Nevada. Rutgers isn’t exactly a power house themselves, but they did at least take care of Boston college on the road and they do rank 60th in EPA margin. SUNJ QB Evan Simon is 67% so far so I am not as worried with the other quarterbacks on injury. If Rutgers keeps the turnover margin close to equal, they could win this game outright.

Rutgers +7.5 – 3 stars

Arkansas vs Texas A&M -2.5 O/U 49

I honestly do not know how the hell Texas A&M is laying points against a good SEC team on a neutral field. Texas A&M was massively out-gained vs Miami at home last week, and they lost to Appalachian State. I know that they switched QBs, but I haven’t seen much offensive improvement with Max Johnson only throwing 54% thus far. Hogs quarterback KJ Jefferson played this game last year and won it 20-10. He threw the rock for 2 TDs and 14 yards per attempt. Arkansas is 42nd in EPA margin while A&M is 81st. This is significant seeing that A&M’s SOS ranks 55th to Arkansas’s 37th. The Aggies could have lost to Miami last week at home had the Cane’s been slightly competent in the Red Zone. They were was also outgained by Miami in total yards. Jimbo won’t know what to do if he is playing from behind at any point in the game. Take the Hogs. Woo Pig Soooie!

Arkansas +2.5 – 3 stars

Better Odds Sports Betting 9/23/22

By

Kiev O'Neil

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September 24, 2022

Rob V: BIG 10 CFB + Member only CFB Non Conf TOTAL OF THE YEAR info

By

Rob Vinciletti

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September 24, 2022

Saturday CFB up Members only Non Conf. TOTAL Of the YEAR Headlining along with an Executive Level TIER 1 Side headlining at night and a 6* 26-0 Top play in Afternoon action. We also have out UNSURPASSED Totals collection play, MLB and Nations League Soccer. CFB and MLB Ranked #1 on Multiple leader boards. Comp play below

The Comp play in BIG 10 Action is on Rutgers +8 points. Rutgers is unbeaten and has the edge on offense. Both teams sports a top 10 defense in total yards. Iowa is on the road after struggling at home against mostly soft teams. They have failed to cover 4 of 5 vs a winning teams. Road favorites off a home win that allowed 6 or less points and off a prior home loss are 0-4 ats vs a team off a road favored win going as far back as the database goes. Rutgers has covered 6 of 7 September games and 7 of 8 after putting up 275+ yards. Look for a close game with a Rutgers cover. On Saturday a massive card is up and backed with the 100% Non Conf. TOTAL of the YEAR, a TIER 1 Executive Level side at night and a rare 26-0 6* TOP Play in the Afternoon. There is also our Signature “TOTALLY” Unsurpassed Collection play, MLB Power System plays and Nations league Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we are ranked #1 in both College Football and MLB on Multiple leader boards. For the CFB Comp play. Take the 8+ Points with Rutgers. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

College Football Saturday Free Play – Bruins Blast Buffs In Boulder

By

Shawn Knoche

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September 23, 2022

A nice weekend in college football at 6-2 in Week 3, as we bounced back from 3-5 in Week 2. Now at 19-16 overall on the season. Hoping to continue the momentum into Week 4. Also hoping to change it up here on the Free Picks as those are currently 0-3. Anyhoo…. Let’s go!

This week’s Free Play travels to one of my focus conferences in the Pac 12. (3-1 Pac-12 plays) It’s not my normal Late Night KNAction, although I do have some of those lined up for Saturday as well. (Get All my Plays available right here @theoddsbreakers.com) We look at at an unusual starting time of 2PM Eastern in Boulder, Colorado where the Buffaloes will take on the UCLA Bruins. Current Lines: UCLA -21.5 Over/Under 57

UCLA comes in at 3-0 having survived last week against South Alabama on a last second field goal. This comes after pummeling Bowling Green and Alabama State to open the season. Colorado on the other hand is 0-3 and has lost by an average 32.7 PPG in contests with Minnesota, Air Force and TCU. Clearly Colorado has faced the tougher competition thus far, but results have not been solid.

The key to UCLA’s offense is quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson who is completing a hefty 72.6% of his passes so far for 6 scores and only 1 INT. He can also run when needed adding 114 yards and 2 scores on the ground. Zach Charbonnet leads their ground game averaging 5.6 YPC. The receiving core is green, but has shown flashes led by Jake Bobo and Kazmeir Allen. On the down side they have turned it over 6 times this season already.

Colorado’s offense hasn’t really materialized up to this point in the season having only scored 30 points through 3 contests. J.T. Shrout and Brendon Lewis have split time under center, even third stringer Owen McCown got some action against Minnesota in the blowout as the Buffs looked to find some sort of spark. Combined in 3 games they are 41/86 for 377 yards 2 TDs and 1 INT. That’s not gonna cut it. Deion Smith is their leading rusher averaging 5.7 YPC and he will need to be effective in this one to keep the UCLA offense off the field. Only one Colorado pass catcher has more than 3 receptions and that’s Daniel Arias who is their only real threat outside.

On defense UCLA ranks 23rd in the country allowing 4.38 Yards per play, with most of the damage coming in their last contest. The rushing defense has been especially strong allowing just under 100 yards per game.

Colorado ranks dead last in stopping the run 131st in the country allowing 362 yards per game. Air Force and Minnesota will do that to you however when you can’t stop it. They are allowing 6.78 Yards per play good (or bad I guess) for 125th in the country.

So obviously up to this point we have seen that Colorado cannot put anything together on either side if the ball. UCLA will, like the Buffs other three opponents, run the ball at will. The Bruins offense is 13th in Line Yards with the Buffs D at 129th. Chip Kelly will be drawing up all the run scheme magic and I think you will see DTR run wild. In last years contest the Bruins ran for 244 yards in a 44-20 win. I expect them to get ahead early here and make the Buffs try and play catch-up. I’m not worried about the Buffs throwing their way to a backdoor cover here because even if the Bruins start to salt the game away solely running the football Colorado can’t stop it and their QB play isn’t strong enough to hang multiple scores late. I thought about the first half play, but only Minnesota covered that against the Buffs and I think their D will wear down late like it did against TCU and Air Force.

Gimme UCLA -21.5, 2 Units.

CFB Free Play TCU @ SMU

By

jhinze29@gmail.com

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September 23, 2022

TCU heads to SMU for the Battle of the Iron Skillet

Kickoff: Saturday, September 24th @ 12:00pm ET

TCU will be completely focused after having two weeks to prepare for this game under new Coach Sonny Dykes and his staff that includes several former SMU Coaches. SMU is off of a tough loss at Maryland and are at a clear scheduling disadvantage here. Despite being 2-1 straight up the SMU defense has given up an average of nearly 400 yards per game in their first three contests. The SMU defensive struggles are expected to continue as TCU enters the game averaging over 500 yards of total offense.

SMU’s offense has been one dimensional thus far with QB Tanner Mordecai and WR Rice Rashee connecting for 491 of the Mustangs 1,013 total receiving yards. Coach Dykes and his staff will certainly have a plan for their defense to contain the talented receiver, which will provide the Horned Frog’s talented offense more opportunities to put points on the board.

SMU opened as a short 1.5-point favorite and are now a home dog of -2. The road team has covered in the last 7 matchups between these two teams. I’ll agree with the sharp line movement here by backing Coach Dykes and his knowledgeable staff to make it 8 straight for the road team and to take home the Iron Skillet.

PLAY: TCU -2 (3 Stars)

Follow Josh Hinze on Betstamp: https://www.betstamp.app/u/JoshHinze

NFL Week 3 Sharp Money movement

By

Kiev O'Neil

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September 23, 2022

As of 9/21/22
Sharp Money On:

Texans +3 to +2.5 at Chicago Bears – 57% tickets and 82% of the money.
Bills -3.5 to -6 vs the Dolphins – 82% tickets and 85% of the money.
Jaguars +9 to +7 at the Chargers – 90% tickets and 97% of the money.
Packers +3.5 to +1.5 at the Buccaneers – 47% tickets and 63% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

Jaguars vs Chargers under 50.5 to 47.5 – 47% tickets and 87% of the money.
Packers vs Buccaneers under 48 to 41.5 – 42% tickets and 70% of the money.

Free CFB Premium with Analysis for Saturday, September 24th

By

Nick Hub

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September 23, 2022

And another one!! We are 12-9 57% (+$740, +1.8% CLV) in College Football and we have a a large card for this week! This is the 3rd premium play that I have given out for Saturday, check out all of my free plays and articles here. Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The Central Michigan Chippewas travel to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium. The Chippewas are coming off a 41-0 shutout victory against FCS Bucknell and enter the contest 1-2 with losses to #9 OK St and a good South Alabama squad. The Nittany Lions are coming off their most impressive win at Auburn last week 41-12. Their other 2 wins were against Ohio and Purdue. After their Auburn win last season, PSU played at home against Villanova as a 29.5 point favorite and ended up winning by 3 touchdowns. It is also worth noting that, as mentioned above, CMU lost to OK ST but covered as a 20.5 point dog (losing by 14). This is a great spot for CMU with Penn State coming off a big win and possibly looking ahead to Big Ten play next week. No, I am not predicting an upset but I feel the Chippewas can cause an issue to the PSU running game. Central Michigan rank 28th in the nation by only giving up 2.85 yards per rush and PSU enters with the 110th ranked offensive rushing success rate. This will be a high scoring game with both teams having success in the passing game and it will come down to if the Chippewas can establish a running game or not to cover this 4 touchdown spread. I think they can. Take Central Michigan +28 for 0.5% of your bankroll.

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!