The BMW Championship – Preview & Picks

By

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August 16, 2022

Congrats to everyone as we caught another outright in Will Zalatoris at 28-1. With that win, Zalatoris captured his first career PGA Tour victory. He’s been close many times and finally broke through this week in Memphis. It was not an easy victory as he battled it out with Sepp Straka in three playoff holes.

The field is cut to 70 as we move on from the FedEx St. Jude Invitational to the BMW Championship. This year’s event will be hosted at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware. Established in 1902, Wilmington Country Club has never hosted a professional golf event before.

Tournament Information:

Dates: August 18th, 2022 – August 21st, 2022
Location: Wilmington, Delaware, USA
Course: Wilmington Country Club (South)
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,534 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Tyee bentgrass .100″
Fairways: 007 bentgrass .390″
Rough: Tall fescue/ bluegrass 4″
Bunkers: 91
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 8,100 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
Purse: $15,000,000/ Winners share $2,700,000
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
Field/ Cut: 70 (68) Players| No Cut
Course Scoring Average:
- N/A
Historic Cut Line:
- N/A

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Course Architect: Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1959)
Renovation: Andrew Green (2021)
Comparable Courses:
- Firestone Country Club – WGC-Bridgestone Inv. (2018 RESULTS)
- Congressional – Quicken Loans National (2016 RESULTS)
- Muirfield Village – the Memorial Tournament (2022 RESULTS)

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, August 18th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3 PM – 7 PM
Round 2: Friday, August 19th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3 PM – 7 PM
Round 3: Saturday, August 20th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 12 PM – 3 PM
- NBC – 3 PM – 6 PM
Round 4, Sunday, August 21st, 2022
- Golf Channel – 12 PM – 2 PM
- NBC – 2 PM – 6 PM

Weather:

Thursday: Mostly Sunny 76 F, 8 mp/h W, 52 % Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Friday: Mostly Sunny 78 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 52% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Saturday: PM Showers 76 F,10 mp/h ESE, 60% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 78 F, 9 mp/h SE, 64% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The FedEx Cup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedEx Cup Champion.

The top 125 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this event, only the top 70 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

To see the current FedEx Cup Standings, you can click the following link.

Course/ Tournament History:

Wilmington Country Club will play host the BMW Championship this week, its first ever professional event this week. However, its amateur history goes back over a century as it hosted the 1913 U.S. Women’s Amateur. Along with hosting several amateur events, the 2013 Palmer Cup was held here. The United States team led by Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, and Patrick Rodgers dominated the European team, 20.5-9.5.

In 1966, Wilmington Country Club hosted two exhibition matches. The first was between Carol Mann and Gary Player. Just two months later, Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus squared off against each other.

The host venue features two courses, a North, and a South course. The North course was designed by Dick Wilson. It’s the shorter of two courses playing just over 6,300 yards. The South course, which will be featured this week, was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. I’ll touch on it later but, this week’s layout is not the typical course layout. The front and back nine are intertwined to create this unique layout.

The BMW Championship was awarded to Wilmington Country Club in November 2020. Unfortunately after that, a tornado touched down near the course and downed over 300 trees on the course. Along with the cleanup, the course underwent a major renovation. Every bunker on the course was adjusted, seven new championship tees were added, and the rough was changed to tall fescue from intermediate rough.

Introduced in 2007, the BMW Championship is the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event. It was held at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club until 2011, except for Bellerive Country Club playing host in 2008. From 2011 to 2017, the event was hosted at three different courses including Crooked Stick Golf Club (’12,’16), Conway Farms Golf Club (’13,’15,’17), and Cherry Hill Country Club (’14). After that, the event has been held at a different course each year.

72-Hole Record: 261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)

18-Hole Record: 59, Jim Furyk (2nd round, 2013 – Conway Farms Golf Club)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Wilmington Country Club designed by Robert Trent Jones, Sr. is a Par 71 that plays 7,534 yards. It features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The South Course is a classic tree-lined, parklands layout with significant elevation changes on several holes. Last week’s accuracy was more important than distance off the tee, however this week, it reverses. Also, the greens are almost double in size from TPC Southwind. As with most Robert Trent Jones courses, there isn’t much strategy involved. At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, players had to plot their way around the course but this week is much different. As long as the players can hit it long and find a few fairways, they should have success.

The four Par 3’s range between 170 yards and 234 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.

No. 13 is the shortest Par 3 on the course playing 170 yards. Despite the short yardage, this hole isn’t easy by any means. Players will face a shot to a green that slopes significantly from back right to front left. Water protects the green along the right side while a pair of bunkers are in play on the left.

No. 15 is the longest of Par 3’s playing a little over 230 yards. This tee shot is extremely demanding with a pond coming into play on the front right side. As if that wasn’t enough, bunkers guard the left side of the putting surface. The green itself is divided into three sections; front right, left, and back so depending on the approach shot players can face a difficult putt.

The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 6 is the shortest listed at 391 with the longest being No. 9, just short of 500 yards.

No. 17 is one of the only Par 4’s on the course where players will lay up taking the fairway bunkers out of play. They’ll face a short approach shot into one of the more difficult greens on the South course. Depending on the pin location, it will be very tough to land one close to the hole.

No. 18 is a dogleg left with a demanding tee shot as three fairway bunkers guard the left side of the fairway. Players will face an uphill approach shot onto a false front green.

The three Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 12, and No. 14. Two of the Par 5’s play over 630 yards making Par 5 efficiency 600-650 yards a stat to check out this week.

No. 3 is the lone Par 5 on the front and the shortest of the three playing 582 yards. It’s a dog-leg right that can be shortened depending on the line players take off the tee. Players will face an uphill approach for their second shot onto an elevated green. Bunkers surround the green in the front so most will try and use the upslope on the back of the green to stop their approach shot.

No. 12 is only one of two holes on the South course that don’t feature fairway bunkers. Players will aim for the left center of the fairway as the landing area slopes from left to right. Depending on their distance off the tee, players will have a decision to make. If they want to take an aggressive approach, they can try to carry the pond in front of the putting surface. Or, players can lay up in front of the pond and hit an easy wedge into the sloped green. This green’s difficult as the front slopes towards the water and is surrounded by bunkers.

No. 14 is the longest of Par 5’s listed just under 650 yards but plays shorter. The longer hitters off the tee are at a particular advantage on this hole as they can catch the speed slope in the middle of the fairway. For the shorter hitters, a fairway bunker comes into play when laying up just 60 yards short of the green. The hole locations this week will most likely be positioned on the left and right wings bringing into play additional bunkers.

In terms of course difficulty this week, it’s relatively unknown. Last year we saw Patrick Cantlay finish 27 under in easy scoring conditions at Caves Valley. However, the year before, Jon Rahm finished 4 under at Olympia Fields. Based on everything I’m seeing, I think the winner comes in around 17-20 under but again, that could be way off. While the course is long on paper, most of the length comes from the Par 3’s and 5’s.

Featured Holes: 12, 13, 14, 17, 18

HOLE	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	OUT
PAR	4	3	5	4	4	4	3	4	4	35
YARDAGE	437	206	582	413	495	391	205	490	496	3,715

HOLE	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	IN
PAR	4	4	5	3	5	3	4	4	4	36
YARDAGE	444	430	634	170	649	234	393	419	446	3,819

This week, the course routing will be different from its traditional layout.

Tournament Hole	Traditional South Course Hole
1	10
2	13
3	14
4	15
5	5
6	6
7	7
8	8
9	9
10	1
11	2
12	3
13	4
14	16
15	17
16	11
17	12
18	18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Driving Distance
Proximity 150-175 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 yards
3-Putt Avoidance
Comparable Course History

The Field/ Odds:

We have 68 players in the field out of the possible 70 that have qualified for the second event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

In terms of odds, pre-tournament long-shots haven’t had much success in this event outside Keegan Bradley (140-1) in 2018 at Aronimink Golf Club. The last three winners have all had odds of 25-1 or shorter.

Rory McIlroy (+1000), is the odds-on favorite to win the BMW Championship this week. He last won this event in 2012 when it was hosted at Wentworth Club in Surrey, England. Rory’s played in eleven BMW Championships with five top 10 finishes during that span including his victory in 2012. In last week’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational he struggled missing the cut. Before that, he had finished inside the top 20 in his last eight starts on Tour.

Jon Rahm (+1200), is coming off a T5 finish at TPC Sawgrass. By no means has Rahm had a great year, winning only once (Mexico Open). Despite his lack of wins, Rahm has seven top 10’s in 17 starts and has only missed a cut once during that span (Fortinet Championship). He won the BMW Championship in 2020 at Olympia Fields Country Club. In his career, he’s played in this event five times with four top 10 finishes.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400), won the BMW Championship last year at Caves Valley Country Club. He’s played in five BMW Championships in his career finishing T9/T55/2/T12/1. Last week he finished T57 shooting over par in the final two rounds. Before that, he had finished T14 or better in his previous six starts.

Tony Finau (+1400), has been the hottest golfer on Tour as of late. He won the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic in back-to-back weeks and followed it up with a T5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s played in the BMW Championship seven times before with four top 10 finishes. Last year at Caves Valley Country Club he finished T15.

Justin Thomas (+1600), won the BMW Championship back in 2019 at Medinah Country Club. He’s played in this event seven times before finishing T13/T32/T47/T12/1/T25/T22. JT’s lone win on Tour this season was at the PGA Championship. Last week at TPC Southwind he finished T13.

Previous Winners in the field (BMW Championship); Patrick Cantlay (’21), Jon Rahm (’20), Justin Thomas (’19), Keegan Bradley (’18), Marc Leishman (’17), Billy Horschel (’14), Rory McIlroy (’12)

Notable Withdraws: Cameron Smith (Hip Injury), Tommy Fleetwood (Personal)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

Previous Winners/ Scores (BMW Championship):

2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
- Price: 25-1
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
- Price: 10-1
2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
- Price: 16-1
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) – Aronimink Golf Club
- Price: 140-1
2017: Marc Leishman (-23) – Conway Farms Golf Club
- Price: 45-1

Picks (Outrights):

Justin Thomas (+1600) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

Justin Thomas is coming off a strong Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude Championship shooting 4-under. He finished T13 in last weeks event after struggling over seas in the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship. His lone win this season was at the PGA Championship. In 2019, Justin Thomas won the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.

This course sets up well for Justin Thomas given his ability off the tee and ball-striking. As always, the main issue for JT is his play on the green. He’s currently 104th in SG: Putting and lost strokes last week. If he can putt this week at Wilmington CC he should do very well. The last three events where he’s gained strokes on the green he’s finished 3/1/T5.

Will Zalatoris (+1600) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

We’ve seen it this year twice so far of players winning back-to-back weeks so who’s to say Will Zalatoris won’t do the same this week? While his odds aren’t what they were last week, I am still willing to back him this week.

Coming into last week he was trending towards a win based off his strokes gained and previous three finishes. He’s long off the tee and ranks inside the top 11 in every strokes gained category besides one, putting. We saw how emotional he was just making that par putt on 18 to eventually force a playoff. He finally shattered that narrative around his inability to make a big putt. In the past two tournaments, he’s gained strokes on the green and I believe he uses that newfound confidence to propel himself to another victory this week.

Max Homa (+5500) – Bet365
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

Max Homa has two wins on Tour this season including the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship. Following that victory at Quail Hollow, he’s only missed one cut in his last eight events.

Last week at TPC Southwind, he finished T42 with three sub-70 rounds. He gained strokes in every category besides approach. His iron play is usually one of the best parts of his game but he hasn’t been great as of late losing strokes in that category in his last four events. Despite that, he’s been excelling in every other area of his game so I’m hoping he can figure out his irons this week. If he can do that, he has everything needed to win this week.

Just missed Outrights: Jon Rahm (+1400 – DK), Tony Finau (+1600 – Pointsbet), Sam Burns (+2500 – DK)

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.15 Units

Picks (Top 20):

Cameron Young (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Cam Young is another guy that fits the course profile for Wilmington Country Club. Last week he finished T31 at TPC Southwind despite the course not suiting his game. He’s been in good form as of late finishing T2 at the Rocket Mortgage classic and 2nd at The Open Championship. With Will Zalatoris capturing the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, Cam Young has now won the most money on Tour this season without recording a win.

The distance at Wilmington CC shouldn’t affect Cam Young at all as he ranks 4th in Driving Distance. He ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green. His iron play is inconsistent ranking 78th in SG: Approach and 75th in SG: Around the Green. In his last three events, he’s gained strokes on approach and has gained strokes around the green in two of his last three starts.

Joaquin Niemann (+135) – Pointsbet
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units

Joaquin Niemann won his second PGA Tour event this year at The Genesis Invitational. Since then he’s only finished inside the top 10 in one other event, the Memorial Tournament. As of late, he’s been playing some better golf finishing T16/T53/T13 in his last three tournaments.

Niemann’s distance off the tee should provide him with a slight advantage over the field this week. He ranks 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 23rd in SG: Approach. The main issue for Niemann is his putting where he ranks 113th in strokes gained. His putting performance directly correlates with his finishing position. In the last five events that he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T25. If he can figure out the flat stick this week, he should be able to finish inside the top 20.

Cameron Davis (+175) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units

Following the John Deere Classic where he finished T8, Cam Davis hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his last four events. At TPC Southwind last week he finished T13, gaining strokes in every category.

Wilmington Country Club should suit him well this week especially given his distance off the tee. He ranks well in nearly every key category this week with his short game and putting is the only outliers. However, he’s gained strokes around the green in each of his last three starts on Tour. In terms of putting, he did gain strokes last week and barely lost strokes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 3M Open. Even when he did lose strokes on the green, he still managed to finish T14 and T16.

Taylor Pendrith (+220) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units

Last week we saw Taylor Pendrith struggle at TPC Southwind finishing 68th. To be fair, that course did not suit him at all. Before that, he was in good form finishing T13/T13/T11/T2/T13 in his last five starts. This is the first time that he’s made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so he’s never played in this event before.

Off the tee, he’s one of the longest players ranking 11th in Driving Distance and 12th in strokes gained. On the long par 5’s, he can take a more aggressive line limiting his approach shots. However, the issue for Taylor Pendrith is once he gets off the tee. The good news is that he’s gained strokes on approach in two of his last three events and around the green in four of his last six. If he can putt even moderately well, he should do well at Wilmington Country Club.

Just missed T20 Placements: Shane Lowry (+130 – FD), Aaron Wise (+160 – FD)

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 4.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like to risk 2.00 Units on T20 Placements and 2.00 Units on T40 Placements. However, the odds for T40 Placements this week are awful, so I’ll be allocating those units to T20 Placements.

Total Risk on The BMW Championship: 5.15 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Alan Cashman: 13-3 last 16 MLB Plays. 1 Play for Tue MLB

By

Alan Cashman

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August 16, 2022

Follow me on Twitter @TheCashmanwins

13-3 my last 16 Subscriber Plays

Tuesday

MLB
Cubs at Nationals 7:05 pm
Steele vs Corbin

PICK: Ian Happ CHC Over 1.5 Total Bases +118
1 star

Happ is hot at the plate.

Happ is;
Hitting .379 last 7 games with a .793 slg
Hitting .304 in August
Batting .333 vs LHP
3 for 8, double and a HR vs Corbin in his career, 1.319 slg

Corbin 9.73 ERA last 7 starts
Opponents batting .331 vs Corbin

Subscribe HERE at the OddsBreakers to receive All of my Subscriber Plays.

August 16th MLB Plays

By

Michael Fordham

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August 16, 2022

Coming off a 1-1 start to the week, I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Cubs/Nationals OVER 8.5(-115)–6:05 PM CT

I am definitely fading each of these pitchers/bullpens more than I am backing each of these offenses, but with that said, this number shouldn’t be below 9.

Nationals SP Patrick Corbin has been laughably bad for 3 years running now and is one of the easiest “auto-fades” in baseball. Corbin holds an ERA north of 7.00 and a WHIP at 1.82; in 23 starts, Corbin has allowed over 13 hits per 9 innings. The Cubs are no juggernaut offensively, but they have plenty of righty power bats that match up nicely with the deadbeat Corbin.

Cubs SP Justin Steele has found success at Wrigley Field this year, but it’s been a completely different story on the road(4.71 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Not only that, but now Steele faces the tall task of facing this Nats lineup for the second time in the span of a week. This Nationals lineup surprisingly holds a respectable 96 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park since June 1st, and I think they’re more than capable to take advantage of this advantageous spot.

The Nationals hold a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball, while the Cubs will likely join them by year’s end after trading away all their valuable relievers at the Deadline.

*MLB(1u): Twins -1.5(+110) vs Royals–6:40 PM CT

Twins SP Sonny Gray has steady numbers on the year(3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and is set up for a nice bounce back start tonight. The Dodgers roughed up Gray last week(they’re roughing up everybody right now), but now Gray gets to face a Royals lineup that holds just a 91 wRC+ vs righties on the road since June 1st. Gray threw 6 innings of 1 run ball and allowed just 2 baserunners in his lone start against the Royals earlier this year, and I think we see a similar line tonight.

Royals SP Zack Greinke has pitched great at home but has been an unmitigated disaster on the road. In 9 road starts this year, Greinke hols a 7.16 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and is allowing 2.3 HR/9. Do you really think the 38-year old veteran is at a point in his career where he’s going to rework himself and make the proper adjustments? In any case, this is a tough matchup facing a Twins offense that holds a 116 wRC+ vs righties in their home park since June 1st. This lineup tagged Greinke for 5 runs in Minnesota earlier this season; don’t be surprised if we see a repeat tonight.

By nature of the Royals having (by far) the worst bullpen in baseball, the Twins will hold a pretty massive edge in the later innings. We should not be getting plus-money on this.

*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Rockies–6:45 PM CT

Since June 1st, the Cardinals hold a 139 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. They faced Rockies SP Kyle Freeland in Colorado last week(and tagged him for 6 ER), making this tough wrap-around spot for Freeland. While Freeland has fared better on the road this year, he’s still allowing well over 1 hit per inning and almost 30% of balls hit 95+ mph. The Red Birds are averaging 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August, and I’m expecting them to tag Freeland once again tonight in a role they’ve excelled in all year.

As an added bonus, the Rockies rank 28th in bullpen WHIP and is a unit I love going against.

Rob V: Tuesday Tennis + 2022 MLB 100% GAME OF THE YEAR info

By

Rob Vinciletti

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August 16, 2022

On Tuesday Rob is releasing his 2022 MLB Game of the Year rated at 7 units. MLB Is ranked #1 or top 3 on several major networks. This plays is backed with a 26-1 System that has a 100% Indicator and wins by an average 4 runs per gamer since 2004. Tuesday Tennis Comp play below.

The Afternoon Tennis total is on the OVER 20 Games in the Trevsian vs Kalinskaya match at 12:30 eastern in the Western and Southern Open. Our predictive model sees this as a possible 3 set Affair here. Kalinskaya won the only meeting between the two 6-2 and 6-4. However,This one should be closer today as both have been playing longer matches on the hard courts. Play the Over 20 games here today. On Tuesday Rob has his 2022 Highest Rated MLB Game Of The Year Headlining. Jump on at goldencontender@aol.com or on teitter/facebook. For the Tennis Comp play. Go Over 20 total games in the Trevsian vs Kalinskaya match. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports

Premium Leans, 8.16, more WNBA, and CFL Week 11 Picks

By

Chris R. Farley

-

August 16, 2022

If you didn’t see it on Twitter you’re seeing it now — we’re 11-2 in MLB Leans the last week, lol. That figures. We stop betting on baseball and then we hit a stride. Ah well. Gonna keep on making them “leans” because that’s what’s working and I don’t want that smoke again, but how annoying is that shit?

Anyway, onto today’s leans, added more thoughts/picks in WNBA, and we have some CFL Picks in for this week, too!

Today’s MLB Leans:

Padres/Marlins under 7.5 (-115)

Cubs/Nats under 8.5 (-115)

Astros (-128)

WNBA Picks (29-10-1, +9.62 units):

Sky -7 (-110), to win 1 unit

The Sky haven’t been stellar but it’s time for them to turn up the heat and when they do, at home, there’s little chance that the Liberty can keep up. The Liberty fought hard to get here but, let’s be honest, they got a little luck, a lot of Sabrina, and probably some fortunate regression from their opponents. Now that we’re in the postseason, the Sky are on a newfound revenge tour to reign as champions once again. I expect the best out of Chicago in Game 1 and I think they win n big fashion.

Mercury/Aces over 167.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (-121), to win 1 unit

I think -14 is a bit too high, but the Aces have been pedal to the medal on offense, scoring with pace and never letting off the gas. They’ve also allowed plenty of their opponents to chase all game. Love the over here. Normally we don’t play on 1st/2nd half scoring bets but in this case it seems appropriate. Especially against subpar teams, the Aces can start slow in these situations. Then, predictably, they light it up in the second half. Five out of their last six games have seen the Aces score significantly more points in the 2nd half, so we’ll go with a small bet on the 3rd and 4th eclipsing the 1st and 2nd total.

Wings +10 (-110), to win 1 unit

This is a pure numbers play — 10 just feels too big for a formidable Wings team that can play defense. The Sun own a prolific offense but this is the playoffs. Taking the dog.

CFL Week 11 Picks (17-11, +5.95 units):

BC Lions/Saskatchewan Roughriders over 51.5 (-105), to win 1 unit

The Lions are averaging 39 ppg over their last 3 contests and I see no reason to fade them in this spot. I also don’t see any reason to not love the total. Again, this is an example of pondering regression. Will BC ever slow down and will we see a lower scoring game? Maybe. But that was the story last time these two teams faced. The Roughriders only put up 17 points, amounting to their 2nd lowest scoring output all season. At home in a revenge game, I expect SSK to come out more aggressive. They have a formidable run game and unfortunately, a mediocre defense that won’t be able to stop BC unless BC stops themselves. This has another over-feel and the ancillary reasons add up.

Calgary Stampeders ML (-130), to win 2 units

At 4-4 the Toronto Argonauts sit atop the East Conference and normally that would mean something– in this game it does not. The West is clearly the more dominant half of Canadian Football and the Stampeders are now reeling, again, after another disappointing loss to the Lions last week. BC just keeps pouring it on teams and until their rhythm breaks it won’t be surprising watching them win and win. That’s not the case for Toronto. Toronto doesn’t possess the ball and they rank either mid-tier or bottom-tier in nearly every category that counts on offense and defense. Calgary is still a top 3 team from our perspective, they do a lot of things right, and luck should regress to their side in this contest. Calgary doesn’t get penalized often, they protect their QB, and they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball. Get it done, Stampeders!

WNBA Free Pick – August 17: Mercury vs. Aces

By

Kate Constable

-

August 16, 2022

We’re 7-2 (+5 units) in our last nine WNBA picks and now it’s playoff time baby!! I really enjoy capping the postseason because you know that motivation is going to be at an all-time high for all teams each and every night. Games begin again tomorrow with the Liberty vs. Sky and Mercury vs. Aces. Let’s see where we can find some value…

ALSO, a little shameless plug… I am launching a new podcast called All Bets Are On with Kate Constable. The first episode will debut tomorrow, so be on the lookout for that on Twitter. I’ll go over each first-round series in more depth and hopefully provide some helpful info, entertainment and maybe a free pick or two! I would love it if you would check it out and welcome any feedback.

Aces TT O91, 1 unit*

(so far I’ve seen this number at BetUS, but I expect to see this same number once it becomes available at all other books. I would play it up to 92.)

The Mercury earned their way into the 8^th seed in the playoffs with help from the Liberty beating the Dream and the Lynx losing their final two games to the Storm and Sun. Unfortunately for Phoenix, they now must face the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces. And let me tell you, the Mercury aren’t going to be much of a problem for Becky Hammon’s squad. Vegas swept Phoenix 3-0 during the regular season, and I expect another sweep from the Aces and a swift exit for the Mercury.

This game opened at Aces -12.5 and has jumped up to -14, so I’m not sure there’s much value left in that number. Plus, that’s a pretty hefty spread. While Vegas has covered that number in two of their three meetings with Phoenix this year, I feel more comfortable taking a different angle, which is why we’re going to play Vegas’ team total over 91.

The final scores in those three contests were: 106-88, 86-74, 100-80. All Vegas starters scored in double-digits in two of the three matchups, with A’ja Wilson being the only starter not to reach that mark in their final meeting of the regular season. I think it’s safe to expect a big game out of the MVP frontrunner on Wednesday. The Aces’ offense has also been very effective in those games, shooting 58%, 46% and 47% respectively against Phoenix.

The Aces have also been very efficient on offense as of late, averaging 96 points over their last four games, all of which were wins. Those games were also against the Storm (twice), Sky and Dream, all of which are top-5 teams in defensive rating this season. The Mercury will be without Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith on Wednesday and while Phoenix actually plays better defensively without Taurasi, I still don’t think they’re going to be much of a match for the Aces’ high-powered offense.

Plus, without Taurasi and Diggins-Smith leading the Mercury’s offense, I think Vegas will be able to disrupt their flow and gameplan on that end of the floor and will be able to force turnovers that lead to fast break opportunities. Not to mention Vegas owns the overall turnover battle in their previous three meetings with Phoenix. This one has Vegas written all over it. It’s going to be a tough, quick series for the Mercury.

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

Podcast 50 – 22 – With Michael Fordham – College Football 2022 – Preseason Football – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

August 16, 2022

We have a great show for you today! Our very own Michael Fordham comes on to break down some college football! First, Kiev talks some preseason NFL football where he went 4-1 last week. Next, Michael comes on and the guys get into some season win total plasy as well as some college football week 0 plays that they had already made. Then, D-Nasty comes on to break down some positions in fantasy football. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

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#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Early Premiums, 8.17

By

Chris R. Farley

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August 15, 2022

Let’s get these in early!

WNBA Picks (29-10-1, +9.62 units):

Sky -7 (-110), to win 1 unit

The Sky haven’t been stellar but it’s time for them to turn up the heat and when they do, at home, there’s little chance that the Liberty can keep up. Game 1 goes to the Sky, in big fashion.

Mercury/Aces over 167.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

I think -14 is a bit too high, but the Aces have been pedal to the medal on offense, scoring with pace and never letting off the gas. They’ve also allowed plenty of their opponents to chase all game. Love the over here.

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 7/9 – NFC South

By

Shawn Knoche

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August 15, 2022

We have arrived at week 2 of the Pre-Season, which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

NFC South

2021 Records

Tampa Bay 13-4/ New Orleans 9-8/ Atlanta 7-10/ Carolina 5-12

Tampa Bay – It should go without saying that if Tom Brady goes down this whole division is wide open. Bruce Arians retired with the news that Brady would comeback for one more year as he didn’t want to leave Todd Bowles in the midst of a major transition, but even with Brady still supposedly playing this year the Bucs are in flux! Brady is 45 years old, but he still led the NFL in yards and TDs last season. Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard will attempt to give him some relief through a stronger running game. That could be difficult as the O-Line through retirement and injury could have 3 new starters in the inside. Gronk is retired (again) and Chris Godwin is still recovering from an ACL, but Mike Evans will continue to be a force. I’m skeptical Julio Jones has much left in the tank, but maybe Brady will let him sip a little from his fountain of youth. On defense the secondary gave up a ton last year, but a lot of that has to do with having the lead all the time and no one being able to run on Bowles’ defense. If Devon White and Lavonte David are healthy on the inside I think we will see much of the same from this side of the ball. They will need to find a way to get more pressure home though to help out that secondary. Vegas Win Prediction: 11.5 Juiced Even -115

New Orleans – I really thought I’d come up with the Saints as one of the biggest gainers in the NFC. After doing my rankings, they weren’t quite as big of an improvement as I thought, but the possibilty does exist. The reason is simple Jameis Winston should be back healthy and showed he had made a big time step forward. The Taysom Hill experiment should be over for the most part as he will be used again like he was when Drew Brees was running the show. News came down today Alvin Kamara will likely not be disciplined by the NFL so the running game should be 100%. Michael Thomas is back in the fold after not playing since essentially 2020, and is joined by Jarvis Landry and first rounder Chris Olave. This receiving group is gonna make some noise. The O-Line is probably the weakest offensive group, but I like the foundation and I think draft pick Trevor Penning has all-pro potential. On defense they are led by Cameron Jordan who is one of the pass rushers in the game. They have had a top 4 rushing defense the last four years to go with a great pass rush. In the secondary they lost both starting safeties, but grabbed some big names in free agency in Tyrann Matthieu and Marcus Williams. Marshon Lattimore will need some help on the other side, but I think they at least didn’t take any steps backwards in the back end. Vegas Win Prediction: 8.5 Juiced over at -125

Carolina – Christian McCaffrey has not been able to stay healthy along with the Panthers offensive line. Combine that with dismal quaterback play and that was their downfall in 2021. I think Baker Mayfield gets them at least a few more wins than they had in 2021, and Matt Corral was my favorite QB coming out of college to succeed in the NFL, so I like how their draft went as well. DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson can both play, they just need someone to get them the ball. The defense was not the issue although they gave up points, a lot of those were due to the fact that the offense could not stay on the field. They were #2 in YPG allowed in 2021. The secondary is particularly strong led by Cornerback Donte Jackson. They also added LB Damien Wilson and drafted Brandon Smith to help at the weakest point in the defense. If they find a way to score I’d lookout for this team. Vegas Win Prediction: 6 Juiced over at -135

Atlanta– The Falcons are a hot mess, and didn’t improve in the off-season. They drafted a TE #1 last year in Kyle Pitts who should improve, and this year took receiver Drake London. I don’t love skill positions at the top of a rebuild when you don’t have the quarterback of the future yet on your roster. Maybe they think it is Desmond Ridder, and there is a good chance we will find out before the end of the year if that is true. Cordarelle Patterson had a nice year at running back for them and will be the bulk of their offense again in 2022 as Marcus Mariota will hold the baton at QB to start the season. The receiving core looks like the invite list to Cleveland’s Spring Training in the movie major league though. The defense gave up 365 yards per game in 2021 to go along with finishing 30th in points allowed. They won’t be much better in 2022 as they made no major acquisitions on that side of the ball outside of Cornerback Casey Heyward Jr. The only way they are winning games this year is if the turnover genie grants them three wishes every game. Vegas Win Prediction: 4.5 Juiced Even -115

2022 Projections:

Tampa Bay 12-5

New Orleans 10-6

Carolina 8-9

Atlanta 4-13

NFC South Action:

Tampa Bay – No Action If Brady is healthy this team could still easily win 13 games just by outscoring every other team.

New Orleans – Over 8.5 – 1.5 Units. If they beat Tampa week 2 or Minnesota week 4, there’s a solid chance to hedge back for a middle here as well.

Carolina – Honestly this was the first futures bet I played on the NFL this year with Carolina over 5.5. Baker Mayfield is 1-2 wins better than Darnold/Newton in my eyes so if this team stays heathy I think they should hit 6 with no issues. The lines is now up to 6 or 6.5 depending on the book, and I would still play a over bet on those for 1 Unit. +1000 to win division is worth a sprinkle also.

Atlanta – No Action. They’re gonna be bad, but not sure how bad.

August 15th MLB Plays

By

Michael Fordham

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August 15, 2022

A 5-3, +1.7u weekend got me back into the green overall this MLB season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays looking to start the new week off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Mariners/Angels F5 UNDER 3.5(-125)–8:38 PM CT

This is as top-of-the-line of a pitching matchup as you could have drawn up. Considering I believe the F5 total should be set at 3, I do see value in backing each of these SP’s tonight.

Angels SP Shohei Ohtani is an easy guy to back, ESPECIALLY in his home ballpark. Ohtani pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA at Angel Stadium last year, and here in 2022, he holds a 2.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his home ballpark. In his one prior matchup against Seattle this year, Ohtani twirled 6 shutout innings. While the Mariners have above average numbers in this role, this is still a lineup I can’t give the benefit of the doubt when stepping up in competition(look at how they stepped up against the Astros’ better arms).

Since June 1st of last year, Luis Castillo has been one of the best performing pitchers in baseball. In only 2 starts as a Mariner, he has established himself as their best arm after throwing 8 scoreless innings against the Yankees last week. Tonight, he’ll face one of the most deadbeat lineups in the league. Since June 1st, the Angels hold the second-lowest wRC+ vs righties in all of baseball. We’ve had great success fading this lineup, and until Mike Trout returns from injury, I’ll probably continue to look for chances to fade this feeble unit.

*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(-130) vs Diamondbacks–8:45 PM CT

Giants SP Alex Cobb checks a lot of the boxes I look for in SP’s. Cobb is allowing just 0.5 HR/9 at Oracle Park this year in large part because he produces over 3 times as many ground balls as he does fly balls. Overall, he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this year and sees his overall FIP at 2.91. The Diamondbacks have been pretty subpar in this role, carrying a 91 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st. I’m expecting Cobb to hold the D-Backs in check.

Diamondbacks SP Madison Bumgarner is obviously a legend in San Francisco, but he is WELL past his prime. The lefty’s WHIP sits at 1.40, he is allowing well over 1 hit per inning, and his numbers are much worse on the road(4.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). This is a tougher matchup than people think; the Giants have recorded a 125 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park this year and enter tonight having scored 5 runs/game over their last 8. Bumgarner is a stubborn guy who has refused to adapt to his diminishing ability, and I believe it will continue to bite him tonight like it has all year.