Florida State comes into this one with some serious injury questions with their QB nicked up and potential losses on the OL. BC looks to have all but abandoned their run game under new OC John McNulty (former Notre Dame OC), which hasn’t helped their star QB Jurkovec or their defense thus far. BC’s offense comes into this one T-113th for points per game. BC will get some offense going at some point, but I don’t see it happening in this one. BC’s defense seems to be no slouch despite their offensive woes, they come in ranked 42nd in avg total yards allowed.
FSU’s defense appears to have significantly improved as they are 46th in avg yards allowed. FSU HC Mike Norvell seems to have pivoted from his reputation of a high paced offense to their success, now ranking only T-79th in plays per game. Although the total has been pushed down to the key number of 48, I still like the under.
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This game is absolutely disgusting and a beg you not to watch it. In saying that, I think it is worth betting on just due to the fact that Iowa is laying points. I honestly do not understand how Iowa should be laying points to any team with a slight pulse. This team is 125th in offensive EPA averaging 13.7 points per game. Spencer Petras is below 50% completion percentage, and that is counting games vs South Dakota State and Nevada. Rutgers isn’t exactly a power house themselves, but they did at least take care of Boston college on the road and they do rank 60th in EPA margin. SUNJ QB Evan Simon is 67% so far so I am not as worried with the other quarterbacks on injury. If Rutgers keeps the turnover margin close to equal, they could win this game outright.
Rutgers +7.5 – 3 stars
Arkansas vs Texas A&M -2.5 O/U 49
I honestly do not know how the hell Texas A&M is laying points against a good SEC team on a neutral field. Texas A&M was massively out-gained vs Miami at home last week, and they lost to Appalachian State. I know that they switched QBs, but I haven’t seen much offensive improvement with Max Johnson only throwing 54% thus far. Hogs quarterback KJ Jefferson played this game last year and won it 20-10. He threw the rock for 2 TDs and 14 yards per attempt. Arkansas is 42nd in EPA margin while A&M is 81st. This is significant seeing that A&M’s SOS ranks 55th to Arkansas’s 37th. The Aggies could have lost to Miami last week at home had the Cane’s been slightly competent in the Red Zone. They were was also outgained by Miami in total yards. Jimbo won’t know what to do if he is playing from behind at any point in the game. Take the Hogs. Woo Pig Soooie!
Saturday CFB up Members only Non Conf. TOTAL Of the YEAR Headlining along with an Executive Level TIER 1 Side headlining at night and a 6* 26-0 Top play in Afternoon action. We also have out UNSURPASSED Totals collection play, MLB and Nations League Soccer. CFB and MLB Ranked #1 on Multiple leader boards. Comp play below
The Comp play in BIG 10 Action is on Rutgers +8 points. Rutgers is unbeaten and has the edge on offense. Both teams sports a top 10 defense in total yards. Iowa is on the road after struggling at home against mostly soft teams. They have failed to cover 4 of 5 vs a winning teams. Road favorites off a home win that allowed 6 or less points and off a prior home loss are 0-4 ats vs a team off a road favored win going as far back as the database goes. Rutgers has covered 6 of 7 September games and 7 of 8 after putting up 275+ yards. Look for a close game with a Rutgers cover. On Saturday a massive card is up and backed with the 100% Non Conf. TOTAL of the YEAR, a TIER 1 Executive Level side at night and a rare 26-0 6* TOP Play in the Afternoon. There is also our Signature “TOTALLY” Unsurpassed Collection play, MLB Power System plays and Nations league Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we are ranked #1 in both College Football and MLB on Multiple leader boards. For the CFB Comp play. Take the 8+ Points with Rutgers. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
A nice weekend in college football at 6-2 in Week 3, as we bounced back from 3-5 in Week 2. Now at 19-16 overall on the season. Hoping to continue the momentum into Week 4. Also hoping to change it up here on the Free Picks as those are currently 0-3. Anyhoo…. Let’s go!
This week’s Free Play travels to one of my focus conferences in the Pac 12. (3-1 Pac-12 plays) It’s not my normal Late Night KNAction, although I do have some of those lined up for Saturday as well. (Get All my Plays available right here @theoddsbreakers.com) We look at at an unusual starting time of 2PM Eastern in Boulder, Colorado where the Buffaloes will take on the UCLA Bruins. Current Lines: UCLA -21.5 Over/Under 57
UCLA comes in at 3-0 having survived last week against South Alabama on a last second field goal. This comes after pummeling Bowling Green and Alabama State to open the season. Colorado on the other hand is 0-3 and has lost by an average 32.7 PPG in contests with Minnesota, Air Force and TCU. Clearly Colorado has faced the tougher competition thus far, but results have not been solid.
The key to UCLA’s offense is quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson who is completing a hefty 72.6% of his passes so far for 6 scores and only 1 INT. He can also run when needed adding 114 yards and 2 scores on the ground. Zach Charbonnet leads their ground game averaging 5.6 YPC. The receiving core is green, but has shown flashes led by Jake Bobo and Kazmeir Allen. On the down side they have turned it over 6 times this season already.
Colorado’s offense hasn’t really materialized up to this point in the season having only scored 30 points through 3 contests. J.T. Shrout and Brendon Lewis have split time under center, even third stringer Owen McCown got some action against Minnesota in the blowout as the Buffs looked to find some sort of spark. Combined in 3 games they are 41/86 for 377 yards 2 TDs and 1 INT. That’s not gonna cut it. Deion Smith is their leading rusher averaging 5.7 YPC and he will need to be effective in this one to keep the UCLA offense off the field. Only one Colorado pass catcher has more than 3 receptions and that’s Daniel Arias who is their only real threat outside.
On defense UCLA ranks 23rd in the country allowing 4.38 Yards per play, with most of the damage coming in their last contest. The rushing defense has been especially strong allowing just under 100 yards per game.
Colorado ranks dead last in stopping the run 131st in the country allowing 362 yards per game. Air Force and Minnesota will do that to you however when you can’t stop it. They are allowing 6.78 Yards per play good (or bad I guess) for 125th in the country.
So obviously up to this point we have seen that Colorado cannot put anything together on either side if the ball. UCLA will, like the Buffs other three opponents, run the ball at will. The Bruins offense is 13th in Line Yards with the Buffs D at 129th. Chip Kelly will be drawing up all the run scheme magic and I think you will see DTR run wild. In last years contest the Bruins ran for 244 yards in a 44-20 win. I expect them to get ahead early here and make the Buffs try and play catch-up. I’m not worried about the Buffs throwing their way to a backdoor cover here because even if the Bruins start to salt the game away solely running the football Colorado can’t stop it and their QB play isn’t strong enough to hang multiple scores late. I thought about the first half play, but only Minnesota covered that against the Buffs and I think their D will wear down late like it did against TCU and Air Force.
TCU heads to SMU for the Battle of the Iron Skillet
Kickoff: Saturday, September 24th @ 12:00pm ET
TCU will be completely focused after having two weeks to prepare for this game under new Coach Sonny Dykes and his staff that includes several former SMU Coaches. SMU is off of a tough loss at Maryland and are at a clear scheduling disadvantage here. Despite being 2-1 straight up the SMU defense has given up an average of nearly 400 yards per game in their first three contests. The SMU defensive struggles are expected to continue as TCU enters the game averaging over 500 yards of total offense.
SMU’s offense has been one dimensional thus far with QB Tanner Mordecai and WR Rice Rashee connecting for 491 of the Mustangs 1,013 total receiving yards. Coach Dykes and his staff will certainly have a plan for their defense to contain the talented receiver, which will provide the Horned Frog’s talented offense more opportunities to put points on the board.
SMU opened as a short 1.5-point favorite and are now a home dog of -2. The road team has covered in the last 7 matchups between these two teams. I’ll agree with the sharp line movement here by backing Coach Dykes and his knowledgeable staff to make it 8 straight for the road team and to take home the Iron Skillet.
And another one!! We are 12-9 57% (+$740, +1.8% CLV) in College Football and we have a a large card for this week! This is the 3rd premium play that I have given out for Saturday, check out all of my free plays and articles here. Best of luck if you tail!
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The Central Michigan Chippewas travel to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium. The Chippewas are coming off a 41-0 shutout victory against FCS Bucknell and enter the contest 1-2 with losses to #9 OK St and a good South Alabama squad. The Nittany Lions are coming off their most impressive win at Auburn last week 41-12. Their other 2 wins were against Ohio and Purdue. After their Auburn win last season, PSU played at home against Villanova as a 29.5 point favorite and ended up winning by 3 touchdowns. It is also worth noting that, as mentioned above, CMU lost to OK ST but covered as a 20.5 point dog (losing by 14). This is a great spot for CMU with Penn State coming off a big win and possibly looking ahead to Big Ten play next week. No, I am not predicting an upset but I feel the Chippewas can cause an issue to the PSU running game. Central Michigan rank 28th in the nation by only giving up 2.85 yards per rush and PSU enters with the 110th ranked offensive rushing success rate. This will be a high scoring game with both teams having success in the passing game and it will come down to if the Chippewas can establish a running game or not to cover this 4 touchdown spread. I think they can. Take Central Michigan +28 for 0.5% of your bankroll.
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Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Somehow even with Matt Ryan in our lineup last week we got a victory. DFS Football is all about finding guys with high usage before the price goes up. We were able to do that last week with Curtis Samuel and Greg Dortch. Will they make the roster again? It all depends on the price. Our record this season is now 1-1.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 13-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Joe Burrow, QB: $6,600. Burrow has been bad so far. I don’t think it’s the QB however. It’s the O-Line. He has been running for his life so far against Pittsburgh and Dallas and its translated into his passing numbers. The Jets don’t create the same pressure however being the 4th slowest in average time to pressure. The Jets secondary also gave up a huge game to Jacoby Brissett and the Browns last week and the Bengals bring a lot more to the table. Look for Burrow to get on track.
Dalvin Cook, RB: $7,900. Featured Running backs have certainly not been the way to make money so far in NFL DFS. I’m hoping Dalvin Cook can break the trend and get the Vikings running game traveling in the right direction. The Lions are giving up 152 YPG rushing most of which came against the Eagles week 1. In that game Miles Sanders racked up 96 yards on 13 carries and a score. If Minnesota can get out in front early look for a big game from Cook.
Dameon Pierce,RB: $5,000. Pierce should continue to grow his role in this offense as he had 16 touches in Week 2. With this game likely a low scoring affair with plenty of rushing on both sides I would look for that to increase against the Bears who allowed 200+ yards on the ground against the Packers Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR: $8,100. As stated above with Burrow, I think the Bengals offense gets back on track and that means a big day for Chase and his fellow receivers. The Jets gave up 3 TDs to Baltimore Wide-outs in Week 1, and even if the Bengals get up in the second half by two scores I see them keeping the pedal to the metal and getting this team some confidence back.
Tee Higgins, WR: $6,100. Higgins caught 6 of 10 targets for 71 yards and a score and is clearly the #2 in Cincy ahead of Boyd. See the Burrow and Higgins blurbs for the rest of the news that’s fit to print.
Drake London, WR: $5,800. London looks like he’s the real deal early in his NFL career. He went 8 for 86 and a TD on 12 targets last week against the Rams in the comeback attempt. Against the Saints week 1 it was 5 for 74 while they played with the lead most of the game. He got 12 of 26 Mariota targets in Week 2 so clearly London is where he wants to go with the ball. Hopefully they don’t cave to fan or owner pressure in trying to get Kyle Pitts the ball more often.
Logan Thomas, TE: $3,500. Thomas has 6 catches and 11 targets through 2 games. He hasn’t quite returned to his Pre-ACL form or snap percentage just yet, but the hints are that it may be coming. The Eagles gave up 7 catches for 61 yards and a score last week vs Minnesota and 4 catches for 38 against the Lions to Tight Ends.
Gerald Everett, Flex: $4,400. Everett hauled in 6 catches on 10 targets against the Chiefs in Week 2 for 71 yards. If Herbert is healthy I like this match-up with Keenan Allen still sidelined. Jacksonville’s defense wasn’t tested by the Colts in week 2, but Logan Thomas did get some solid open looks week 1. I think Everett will be Herbert’s second downfield option Sunday and hopefully the Jags try and take away Ekeler in the passing game.
Texans, DST: $2,600. Yup. I am really taking the Texas D here. They are 31st in YPG allowed, but they have not given up a ton of points, and some of those yards were in comeback time to Matt Ryan. The Bend But Don’t Break Houston Texans 2022. Justin Fields hasn’t shown anything yet to make me a believer and the Texans while not flashy have 3 Turnovers and 5 Sacks so far through two games.
