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UFC 279 Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
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BIG card, fun card, let’s get to some plays we like —

UFC 279 Picks (12-12, +11.88 units):
Chimaev in Round 2 (+330), to win 1.65 units
Chimaev in Round 3 (+700), to win 3.5 units
Chimaev might take it easy at first — Nate Diaz is still dangerous and he’s an absolute dawg, even if he’s not in his prime anymore. But Chimaev is very likely to end this early. Dude has that weird, psycho-killer mentality, like he’s literally not normal, and Dana White and others aren’t just hyping him up when they claim he might be one of the best the UFC has ever seen when it’s all said and done. Looking for value –  we like this approach.
Li/Ferguson over 2.5 rounds (-105), to win 1 unit
Ferguson is one of the most durable UFC fighters of all time and he’ll be even more on guard after he got knocked out in his last brawl. Li is talented and should win by points, but I still believe Ferguson has one more win in ’em. I like the value of this wager better.
Johnny Walker wins (+175), to win 1.75 units
Johnny Walker wins within distance (+335), to win 1.675 units
Johnny Walker losing to Jamahal Hill is not something to be ashamed of. Hill is primed to contend for a Light Heavyweight championship and he’s tearing through the division. Ion Cutelaba is not in the same class as Hill and Johnny Walker must be primed and ready for a better performance. Walker is a freak, explosive athlete who can be a bit out of control at times, but no more than Cutelaba. Ion is infamous for his antics, in the octagon and out, and he’ll be out-sized and significantly out-reached in this fight. Walker takes the win and I think there’s a decent chance he does it before the final bell. I’m unimpressed by Ion.

WNBA Free Pick – August 6: Sky vs. Sun

By
Kate Constable
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It’s been a little while since I’ve given out a free pick here, but I’m back! I took a little time away for a family vacation and have since been out of commission with COVID, but we’re feeling better and ready to give out some winners. 

Sky vs. Sun O160.5, 1 unit*

The Chicago Sky and Connecticut Sun meet on Tuesday for Game 4 of the WNBA semifinals. Chicago leads the series 2-1, so this game is a must-win for Connecticut if they want to keep their season alive. The total for this game sits at 160.5 and I like the over. The over has yet to hit in this series, but really, it should have in 2 of the 3 games thus far. 

A lot of times the narrative in the playoffs is that the game slows down and teams pick up the defensive intensity. That was certainly the case in Game 1 of this series, but the under hit in Game 3 by 14 points because of poor offensive execution. Connecticut went 8-26 in the paint in the first half and finished the game just 18-48 in the paint. That’s 27.5%! Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner combined to go 10-36 overall. Even just a bit of positive regression for the Sun on offense on Tuesday has the ability to push this game over. 

It was much of the same on Chicago’s side. Allie Quigley went 1-11 from the field. That isn’t going to happen again. Candace Parker led the Sky in scoring but still only shot 5-14 from the field and 1-6 from three. As a team, they shot just 37%. Not to mention both teams went on a four-minute scoring drought in the fourth quarter. 

These two teams played four times during the regular season and averaged a total of 177 in those games. I don’t think we’ll see a number quite that high in Game 4, but with a little offensive regression and the Sun with their backs against the wall, we’re going to get two teams that a focused and ready to knock down shots on Tuesday.  

More free plays to come, so stay tuned! In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

September 6th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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We started the week off with a 1-0, +1u Monday in MLB. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to continue building our bankroll prior to Week 2 of CFB. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Marlins TT UNDER 2.5(-110) @ Phillies–5:45 PM CT

Did you know that the Marlins have been held to 2 runs or less in each of their last 8 ballgames? That’s truly hard to do. Since the All Star Break, this offense has been totally wretched in every since of the word. With Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, and (likely) Avisail Garcia still on the shelf, I see no reason why their fortunes turn tonight.

Phillies SP Aaron Nola has pitched to a sub-1.00 WHIP this year but has had some blowup starts(moreso blowup innings) that have inflated his ERA to 3.43. Nola yielded a season high 8 ER in his last start in Arizona, but he has been terrific in his bounce back spots this season. Nola has allowed 5 ER or more on 4 separate occasions this year, and in his following start, he has allowed just 1 ER in those 4 appearances. When you consider that the wind will be blowing nearly 10 mph in tonight, I think Nola can go deep in this game and totally dominate this putrid lineup.

We will have to trust the Phillies bullpen here(something I’m not always comfortable doing), but considering they are fresh off an off-day and facing this bad of an offense, I’m willing to do so in this spot.

*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 ML(+125) @ Mariners–8:40 PM CT

Mariners SP Logan Gilbert has all the makings of a future All Star SP, but he is far too unproven to be getting this much credit. Gilbert holds a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at T-Mobile Park this year; while allowing 8.5 hits/9 innings isn’t bad, it’s proof that Gilbert isn’t as dominant as he’s perceived to be. Gilbert is deep into his second big league season having thrown 155 innings this year; his previous high as a pro was 135 innings back in 2019. Fatigue down the course of September is a consideration in this play. The White Sox have scored over 5.5 runs/game over their last 7 and have improved vs right-handed pitching throughout the course of this season.

I don’t think most people realize how poor the Mariners offense has been in this role. Since July 1st, the Mariners hold a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. White Sox SP Johnny Cueto has enjoyed a career renaissance here in 2022, keeping hitters off-balance to the tune of a sub-3.00 ERA. I think he’s able to make quick work of this Seattle lineup tonight.

The Mariners hold a MAJOR bullpen advantage, which absolutely will keep this a F5 play.

Rob V: Tuesday MLB TOTALS SYSTEM PLAY METS at PIRATES

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Tuesday U.S. Open TENNIS TOTAL OF THE YEAR and Champions League Soccer Headlines.

The MLB comp totals system is on the over in the Mets at Pirates game at 6:35 eastern. The Mets will be anxious to get the sour taste of back to back home favored losses out of their mouths here today against a Pirates team that looks like they threw the towel in. This system is based on road favorites off a pair of home favored losses vs a team that scored more than 1 run in a home loss. Walker for the Mets has allowed 5 runs in his last 10 innings and Wilson 11 runs in his last 16 and has a 4.81 home Era. We will back the over unless the Mets decide to replace Walker with deGrom. On Tuesday we have another Powerful card up with the WNBA PLAYOFF Game Month, U.S. OPen total of the year in Tennis, Chapions league Soccer and MLB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Mets and Pirates over the total. RV-

O/U:12-1-1

Sep 17, 2004recapFri2004awayDodgersHideo Nomo-RRockiesJamey Wright-R8-62W0.5O10-120-12-5-110.013.510

Sep 07, 2006recapThu2006awayTigersJustin Verlander-RTwinsScott Baker-R7-25W0.0P12-101-06-0-120.09.09

Sep 15, 2006recapFri2006awayMarlinsDontrelle Willis-LBravesLance Cormier-R6-42W1.0O10-100-15-0-120.09.09

Sep 25, 2006recapMon2006awayAthleticsEsteban Loaiza-RMarinersCesar Jimenez-L9-10-1L9.5O13-211-06-1-145.09.510

Sep 17, 2010recapFri2010awayBravesTommy Hanson-RMetsJon Niese-L6-42W3.0O5-60-13-3-135.07.09

Sep 27, 2010recapMon2010awayPhilliesRoy Halladay-RNationalsJohn Lannan-L8-08W1.0O12-20-08-0-230.07.09

Sep 05, 2011recapMon2011awayGiantsMadison Bumgarner-LPadresTim Stauffer-R7-25W3.0O9-70-06-0-115.06.09

Sep 24, 2011recapSat2011awayRed SoxJon Lester-LYankeesFreddy Garcia-R1-9-8L0.5O9-90-10-9-140.09.59

Sep 25, 2014recapThu2014awayAthleticsJason Hammel-RRangersColby Lewis-R1-2-1L-5.5U6-60-01-1-145.08.59

Sep 24, 2015recapThu2015awayMetsSteven Matz-LRedsJoshua Smith-None6-42W2.0O12-110-03-1-162.08.09

Sep 26, 2016recapMon2016awayGuardiansCorey Kluber-RTigersBuck Farmer-R7-43W2.5O8-100-13-0-155.08.59

Sep 08, 2020recapTue2020awayDodgersWalker Buehler-RDiamondbacksLuke Weaver-R10-91W10.0O10-102-21-4-240.09.09

Sep 25, 2020recapFri2020awayPadresChris Paddack-RGiantsTyler Anderson-L4-5-1L2.5O6-90-11-4-125.06.57

Sep 14, 2021recapTue2021awayAthleticsFrankie Montas-RRoyalsJackson Kowar-R7-10-3L8.0O8-140-06-3-152.09.09

Sep 06, 2022recapMon2022awayMetsTaijuan Walker-RPiratesBryse Wilson-R-200.08.0

Premiums, 9.6

By
Chris R. Farley
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Subpar results in tennis yesterday but we move on! First CFB picks for the week included below.
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (9-5, +1.88 units):
Berrettini/Ruud over 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit, and
Jabeur/Tomljanovic over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
I know what you’re thinking – Chris, all you’re doing is better overs on these games. Yes, that’s true. Thing is, almost all of these tennis players have been elite leading up to these matches. It’s also a more even playing field than ever before. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Serena, etc. – all the elites of the past have either been eliminated or they’re not at the US Open, and all of these players are trying to take advantage. All four players who we’re betting on today have elite endurance and serving prowess. Hence every one of them should be really hard to eliminate. Betting the overs, again – trust the process.
CFB Week 2 Picks (8-7-1, -0.35 units):
Arkansas State/Ohio State over 68 (-110), to win 1 unit
The total doesn’t match the spread (-44) on the Buckeyes, who are bound to explode, at home, after a pedestrian showing on offense against the Irish. Notre Dame has a very formidable defense though (and we knew that, despite being doubted constantly) — can’t say the same thing about Arkansas State. I think Ohio State annihilates their opponent Saturday; they might score 68 themselves.
Tennessee/Pitt under 65.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is too inflated and I expect it to fall. The strength of both of these programs is their defense and although both had higher scoring outputs in Week 1, their opponent will present different problems in this matchup. Regression to the norm and a potentially sloppy day in Pittsburgh add on to our liking the under here.
San Jose State/Auburn under 50 (-110), to win 1 unit
Auburn may have the best defense in the SEC this year – please hold, too early to call – but there’s a shot. San Jose State struggled against Portland State in Week 1… When team total props come out we’ll probably bet on SJS under, but for now we’ll take the full game total under. SJS may not score a point.
WNBA Leans Tonight:
Sky to win (even)
 
Storm to win (-110)

Podcast 57 – 22 – College Football Week 1 Recap – Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Sleepers – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today!  College Football week 1 is over and we recap the aftermath!   First, Kiev talks about some of the huge games that went on over the weekend.  What went right?  What went wrong?  Then, we get into some misleading final scores.  Then, Kiev talks about some betting information for week two such as injuries, let down spots and look ahead situations.   After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 2.   Finally, Kiev gets into fantasy football with his top players as well as some sleepers for your fantasy football draft!  Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag?  Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Rob V: Monday SERIE A SOCCER TORINO VS LECCE

By
Rob Vinciletti
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The Serie A Play for Monday is on Torino at 2:45 eastern. Torino was enjoying a solid start to the season but lost 3-1 away vs Atlanta. Now they will look to make amends in front of thier home fans with a math against Lecce a newly promoted squad that has expected struggled since the promotion and are off back to back draws. Lecce will be without Federico Brancolini, Joel Voelkerling Persson, Mert Cetin and Kastriot Dermaku, who have all been ruled out with injuries. Lecce sits at 15th in the table and will face a determined Torino team that likely secures the win. Rob Vinciletti

September 5th MLB Play

By
Michael Fordham
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After CFB taking center-stage this weekend, it’s time to get back to the diamond. I’m rolling with 1 play here on Labor Day to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-135) vs Brewers–3:10 PM CT

Brewers SP Adrian Houser is extremely unreliable and has been especially poor on the road this year(6.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). With a BB/9 at 4.8 away from home, I have a really hard time seeing Houser flip the script at Coors Field, which is notorious for having the most hitter-friendly conditions in baseball. The Rockies are a horrible offense away from home, but at Coors Field, they have the 6th highest OPS vs righties since July 1st. They have found themselves in this spot(first game back home after a multi-series road trip) on 7 separate occasions this year and managed to score nearly 8 runs/game in this role. They are plenty capable of taking advantage of Houser today.

I would also lean towards Rockies F5 ML at the plus-price, but Rockies SP Ryan Feltner has not shown the consistency here in his rookie year to where I want to be backing him in this spot.

Premiums, 9.5

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi Everyone!

Shitty results with LSU last night, they just weren’t as refined as we thought they would be, but overall it’s been a profitable last few days and profitable week. Let’s keep rolling and hope to get some more wins in tennis today.
Probably later today but definitely by early this week, you can expect more lookahead bets on UFC 279, and more NFL and CFB. The best time of the year has arrived!
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (9-4, +3.6 units):
Kvitova/Pegula over 22 (-115), to win 1.5 units
This could be the championship game – two women that are playing at the top of their game and will not easily go down in this matchup. Like we see in Kudermetova and Jabeur, sometimes it only takes 2 sets for this to go over and that could be the case today in this one if it doesn’t reach 3 sets. I like Pegula to pull it out, but I love the over.
Nadal/Sinner/Alcarez parlay, 1 unit to win .80 units
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