This episode features Ryan Reynolds, co-head of betting at The33rdTeam and one of the sharpest NFL handicappers in the game! In 34 minutes, Chris asks Ryan about his betting philosophy, his takes on the Raiders and Packers, and why he doesn’t bet the NFL preseason. Tune in and subscribe!
Wanna win this NFL and NBA seasons? Get FarleyBets’ Premium Packages here. He’s currently on a RED HOT 29-11, +21.2 unit run! And below are a few more reasons why you should join this historic team!
Detailed analysis every day– you’ll learn to become a successful handicapper
High-level access– Chris is the Head of Betting at The33rdTeam and an analyst for TheOddsBreakers and BetUS; few are more constant in the industry
Career 57% record in the NBA (490-375, over 130 units won)
2021 Circa Millions 5th place finisher (114k prize, 68% win rate)
Added two more plays. Are we pissed about the past 2 days in the WNBA? Yes, but we’ve also been spoiled from 2 weeks of winning. Let’s get back to it again!
Added another WNBA and NFL play, too.
MLB Leans:
None today.
WNBA Playoffs (0-6, -6.71 units):
Liberty +9 (-110), 2 units
This line is falling and for good reason. Game one was NOT a fluke. Sure, the Liberty shot WAY better from beyond the arc, but that’s nothing new – NY is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the association. And sure, Chicago had some bad runs, especially their scoreless, pitiful ending in the final minutes of the 4th QTR, but the Liberty have a real grit behind them and I think they keep it going today. That’s especially true when starters Howard, Ionescu and Laney play as well as they did. I like NY’s determination and expect this series to continue looking evenly matched.
NFL Preseason Week 2 (6-4, +2.15 units):
Saints/Packers under 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
We didn’t get the best line here but since the books are adjusting to expect more offense, and since Aaron Rodgers probably won’t play and Jameis will be very limited, if he plays at all, this feels like a good sleepy spot for some low-scoring in Lambeau.
Patriots -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Patriots lost game one to the Giants, which trust me never happens in the preseason, and this is a nice home game to get-right against a bad Panthers’ roster. Billy B and the Pats have been quiet, as usual, about their plans, but I think they play some starters and bring some extra juice tonight – it’s moved in their direction for a reason.
Texans -2 (-110), to win 1 unit
Wild line movement tells us everything here. McVay famously cares not about the preseason and Houston has a team full of young potential trying to get in reps and show off for their coach. That includes an able Davis Mills and willing run game in Dameon Pierce. Texans is the call.
Parlay: Chargers/Giants/Ravens – all predicted to care more and thus win. Gonna attempt a parlay here, which is always a bit spooky in the preseason. 0.5 units to win 1.06 units
CFL Week 11 Picks (17-11, +5.95 units):
BC Lions/Saskatchewan Roughriders over 51.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Lions are averaging 39 ppg over their last 3 contests and I see no reason to fade them in this spot. I also don’t see any reason to not love the total. Again, this is an example of pondering regression. Will BC ever slow down and will we see a lower scoring game? Maybe. But that was the story last time these two teams faced. The Roughriders only put up 17 points, amounting to their 2nd lowest scoring output all season. At home in a revenge game, I expect SSK to come out more aggressive. They have a formidable run game and unfortunately, a mediocre defense that won’t be able to stop BC unless BC stops themselves. This has another over-feel and the ancillary reasons add up.
Calgary Stampeders ML (-130), to win 2 units
At 4-4 the Toronto Argonauts sit atop the East Conference and normally that would mean something– in this game it does not. The West is clearly the more dominant half of Canadian Football and the Stampeders are now reeling, again, after another disappointing loss to the Lions last week. BC just keeps pouring it on teams and until their rhythm breaks it won’t be surprising watching them win and win. That’s not the case for Toronto. Toronto doesn’t possess the ball and they rank either mid-tier or bottom-tier in nearly every category that counts on offense and defense. Calgary is still a top 3 team from our perspective, they do a lot of things right, and luck should regress to their side in this contest. Calgary doesn’t get penalized often, they protect their QB, and they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball. Get it done, Stampeders!
UFC Picks (7-12, +2.26 units):
Usman/Edwards- Will it Go the Distance, No (+112), to win 0.56 units
Edwards ML (+300), to win 3 units
Watching their last fight, Edwards had a clear advantage in the stand up game. He was quicker, more agile, and more successful with his little jabs in the first 2 rounds. Usman, on the other hand, owns an unreal gas tank and he easily out-wrestled Edwards in the first showdown. I think that’ll change in this one. That first fight was almost 7 years ago and Edwards is a much different, much more mature fighter. Usman’s knee issues are well-documented and although I still think he should be considered the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC right now, every champ has a moment of forced humility. This feels like the one. Since their last matchup in December 2017, Edwards hasn’t lost a single fight. He’s also faced some of the best fighters in the Welterweight division during that win-span. Edwards is incredibly quick, his takedown defense has dramatically improved, and I think he catches Usman by surprise in the later rounds, which should set up a nice trilogy.
Costa/Rockhold over 1.5 rounds (-135), to win 1.5 units
Paulo Costa is a dangerous fighter but let’s face it, he really hasn’t beaten anyone. Okay he beat Yoel Romero by decision, and Yoel is a freak in more ways than one, but Romero hasn’t had nearly as much success as he should have either. Rockhold is a smart, tough veteran who still thinks he can fight for a title shot. He’s wrong, but it’s doubtful that he’ll just go down after 1 round. Na. I think Rockhold uses his veteran savvy to prolong this fight.
Albazi/Figueiredo- Will it Go the Distance, No (+115), to win 1.15 units
Albazi is an extremely good wrestler and in short, Figgy won’t have an answer. He’s just not versatile enough. I think Albazi makes another statement and gets an early victory.
We have arrived at week 2 of the Pre-Season, which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
Here we are at the final division preview. This was the best division in football last year in my opinion. 2022 will not be a repeat performance
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
NFC West
2021 Records
Los Angeles Rams 12-5/Arizona 11-6/ San Francisco 10-7/ Seattle 7-10
Los Angeles Rams – The Rams were picked by me to win the Super Bowl in this column last year and they did just that. Matthew Stafford getting out of Detroit proved a recipe for success. Sean McVay continued to prove he is the penultimate offensive mind in the NFL. On offense Allen Robinson takes the place of Robert Woods. Cooper Kupp will still be his #1 target. Cam Akers should be back healthy but his safety net in Sony Michel is gone. The O-Line suffered the biggest loss in the retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth. On defense some of the key pieces are back in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Von Miller has moved on however and so has #2 corner Darious Williams. The did sign veteran Bobby Wagner who may still have some gas left in the tank. I’d look for them to make some moves yet to bolster the defense, but their draft capital is depleted so it might not be a huge splash like Miller in 2021. Vegas Win Prediction: 10.5 Juiced over -125
Arizona – This team shot out to a 7-0 start in 2021 thanks to staying healthy and getting turnovers. The team that finished the year 4-6 is likely the more true version of the Cardinals. After making the playoffs they apparently felt they had to resign Kyler Murray early. Maybe they should have just agreed to buy him a PS5 because this contract is really going to hurt them after this season and I don’t think Murray has proven anything up to this point. On offense they did make a splash in getting Hollywood Brown to go opposite Deandre Hopkins and AJ Green which should help open up the offense inside for Zach Ertz. Hopkins will be out until week 7 however so we will have to see if they can hold up until then. They start off against Kansas City, Las Vegas and the Rams so it could be a rough beginning. James Conner will carry the load at RB behind an O-Line that returns mostly intact. Losing Chandler Jones at DE/LB is one of the biggest losses for any unit this off-season. JJ Watt isn’t what he used to be and they are going to have to hope one of their draft picks turns into something special to help get to the QB. The secondary was weak in 2021 and they did nothing to improve it. Vegas Win Prediction: 8.5 Juiced Even at -115
San Francisco – Well, I guess San Fran thinks it has to be better at QB to get to the Super Bowl. Jimmy G getting them within 3 points of it wasn’t good enough so its time for Trey Lance. I’m looking at him as a rookie QB essentially, and there have been 102 QBs that have started 10+ games for their teams since 1980. Only 12 have made the playoffs. That list includes guys like Bernie Kosar, Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and RG3. There are a few outliers like Kyle Orton and maybe Lance will join one of these groups, but just watching him so far I’m not gonna hold my breath. The rest of the roster is solid to support him however, but they couldnt do much to improve due to salary cap issues and no first round picks. Deebo Samuel and Georgr Kittle are two elite position players. Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon will carry most of the load at RB unless Samuel allows them to put him back into the hybrid role again. The interior of the offensive line could have 3 new starters this year which is also not ideal for a new young QB. On defense the only big acquisition was Charvarius Ward at corner to help a secondary that struggled mightily in 2021. The front seven is amazing led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and will make the QB get rid of the ball fast to help the secondary. Vegas Win Prediction: 9.5 Juiced Over at -140
Seattle – The Russell Wilson era in Seattle is over and the rebuild in The Emerald City has begun. I wouldn’t expect Drew Lock or Geno Smith to lead this team to the playoffs so we will chalk this year for them up to player development and Pete Carroll’s retirement cruise. The QBs will still have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to throw to so the cupboard ins’t completely bare. The O-line however will feature 2 rookie tackles who will match up with an experienced interior to try and open holes for breakout RB Rashad Penny. On defense Jordyn Brooks has already become a star, but he will need some help from his friends. The D-Line is all retreads the Hawks signed to fill the void, and the rest of the linebacker core is not great. In the Secondary the Legion Of Boom is long gone, but the safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs can both cover a lot of ground. Jim Thorpe winner Coby Byrant will be one of the new corners this year. The D kept them in a lot of games last year, but I think they are also moving in the wrong direction. Vegas Win Prediction: 5.5 Juiced Over at -135
2022 Predictions:
Los Angeles Rams 12-5
Arizona 9-8
San Francisco 8-9
Seattle 5-12
NFC West Action:
Los Angeles – Lean Over. While I have them for 12 wins predicted they do have a very hard schedule.
Arizona – No Action But…… I’d look for this team to possibly start 0-3 and then jump on the live over with Hopkins return on the horizon.
San Francisco – No Action. If Trey Lance does well they should win 9-10 games. If he doesn’t Jimmy G should be back in there and he’ll get them to 8-10 even if they start poorly.
I’m 5-1, +4.2u over the last 2 days, bringing me to 135-125-5, +4.72u on the year. I’m rolling with 4 plays for today looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(-105) vs Rockies–12:15 PM CT
I’ve been on St. Louis in both games of this series(cashed both) and am up +10.21u in my action on Cardinals games this year. With what I perceive to be a major edge for St. Louis once again, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that I’m on them once again.
Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has been marvelous at home each of the past 2 seasons. This year, Waino holds a 2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, an is allowing just 0.6 HR/9 at Busch Stadium. This Rockies offense struggles mightily when they don’t have the Coors Field conditions aiding their numbers; since June 1st, the Rockies hold a measly 81 wRC+ away from home.
Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is a glorified pitching machine, allowing 12.7 hits per 9 innings this year. While Senzatela is a heavy ground-ball guy, he’s actually fared much worse away from Coors Field this season(5.50 ERA, 1.62 WHIP on the road). This is a Cardinals offense that is simply in steady current form; they’re averaging just under 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August. Since June 1st, the Red Birds hold a 119 wRC+ vs righties at home.
By nature of the Rockies ranking 28th in bullpen WHIP, the Cardinals will hold a sizable advantage once again in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Rangers -1.5(+110) vs Athletics–1:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning has pitched very well at Globe Life Field each of the past 2 seasons. This year, Dunning holds a 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in Arlington. By nature of holding a GB/FB% well over 2.00, Dunning is not a big threat to give up the long ball. That’s even more true when you consider he’ll match up with one of the worst lineups in baseball that ranks 25th in HR’s this year.
Athletics SP Zach Logue is pitching in the big leagues out of necessity for a rebuilding team, not because he’s a ML caliber arm. In 8 starts, the lefty holds a gross 5.49 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Logue has produced twice as many fly balls as he has ground balls, likely a big reason why he’s allowing 1.76 HR/9. The Rangers haven’t swung the bats well this series, but since June 1st, this lineup holds the 2nd highest wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark(154 wRC+).
The Rangers recently added their closer Joe Barlow back from the IL, giving this ‘pen a bit more flexibility. They hold a sizable enough advantage to where I feel comfortable playing this one throughout the full game.
*MLB(1u): Mets/Braves UNDER 7(-110)–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Max Fried has developed into a year-in, year-out All-Star caliber arm. The lefty has held a sub-1.10 WHIP in each of the past 3 seasons and has found consistent success in his home ballpark. While the Mets took advantage of a dream matchup against Jake Odorizzi last night(we were on that), this lineup is very mediocre vs left-handed pitching(101 wRC+ vs lefties on the road since June 1st).
Mets SP Jacob DeGrom is clearly an other-world level talent. In addition to holding a 1.62 ERA and 0.42 WHIP(that is not a typo), DeGrom is striking out over 15 batters per 9 innings this year. For those who want to point out the small sample size, consider that, last year(15 starts), DeGrom held a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. If you fade DeGrom in the name of “regression”, you very well might lose your entire bankroll.
The Braves’ bullpen has proven to be trustworthy this season(7th in bullpen WHIP). While the Mets hold worse numbers due to some poor middle relief pitching this season, I can still trust the back-end of their bullpen.
*MLB(1u): Padres TT OVER 5.5(+105) vs Nationals–8:40 PM CT
Nationals SP Anibal Sanchez is a deadbeat arm. The 38 year old brings a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP into tonight’s start, but perhaps what’s most disturbing in the fact that Sanchez is producing more fly balls than ground balls. For a guy with bad stuff at this point in his career, it’s no wonder Sanchez has allowed 3 HR/9 this season.
I would look to fade Sanchez anyway, but I feel even more comfortable doing so considering he’s making his 2nd straight start against this Padres lineup. Considering Sanchez allowed 9 baserunners and 2 ER in 5 IP last weekend, he was fortunate to escape with only 3 ER allowed. The Padres absolutely racked Pablo Lopez in Miami yesterday, and I have seen improvements vs right-handed pitching throughout the course of the summer.
The Nationals bullpen ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP and is certainly a unit I don’t mind playing against.
Thursday card has NFLX, WNBA Playoffs and MLB Platinum Supreme Total and Tennis. MLB Top play cashed big last night. Comp play below
On Thursday the MLB Comp play is on Boston at 7:05 eastern. The Redsox look to complete the sweep and the Pirates fit a nasty system that has home dogs losing over 75% of the time if they are off 6+ losses and their opponent scored 5 or more runs last out.Pittsburgh has Brubaker going and he has an elevated 5.44 home Era. Boston counters with Winckowski and he has been solid in road starts with a 2.82 Era. Boston has won 5 straight in the series. With Pittsburgh just 12-40 after losing the first two games of a series we will Back Boston here tonight. On Thursday we have our TOP Level MLB Platinum Supreme Total and a Perfect System Playoff Payoff in the WNBA. We also have another Tennis play and more. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we are cashing big in all sports. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Redsox. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We have a HUGE show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from Betsperts and Vegas Matty @Footballcontest from Football Contest comes on to discuss some NFL! First, Vegas Matty comes on to talk about the huge contests in Vegas. How can you get in the contests? What are these contests like? What are the changes from last year? Then, Andy Molitor comes on to discuss some exotic NFL markets that have some large + money. Will there be any records broken this year? Which rookie has the best chance to shine? There are a few plays that we made sprinkled into the segment. Finally, Kiev gets into a little UFC 278 with some FREE PLAYS for the weekend. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
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Chris is back! In a solo pod, he discusses some news from the preseason and which ones actually matter. And then he goes over his QB profiles to help you manage expectations and assess your NFL bets this season. Check it out and subscribe!
Wanna win this NFL and NBA seasons? Get FarleyBets’ Premium Packages here. He’s currently on a RED HOT 29-11, +21.2 unit run! And below are a few more reasons why you should join this historic team!
Detailed analysis every day– you’ll learn to become a successful handicapper
High-level access– Chris is the Head of Betting at The33rdTeam and an analyst for TheOddsBreakers and BetUS; few are more constant in the industry
Career 57% record in the NBA (490-375, over 130 units won)
2021 Circa Millions 5th place finisher (114k prize, 68% win rate)
Coming off a 3-0, +3.1u night, I’m rolling with 3 more plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
The Braves have dominated the first two games of this series, but the dynamics here in Game 3 completely favor the Mets. I oftentimes get priced out of backing an arm like Max Scherzer, but this line is not tilted enough in his favor.
Scherzer has been one of (if not the) best pitchers in baseball since 2013, holding a sub-1.00 WHIP in 7 of the last 10 seasons. In addition to his sub-2.00 ERA here in 2022, Scherzer has mowed down the Braves this year. In 2 starts(14 innings), Scherzer has allowed just 1 ER, 7 baserunners, and struck out 20 Atlanta hitters. Aside from Ronald Acuna Jr, the rest of this Braves order has had no answers against Mad Max throughout their careers.
The Mets offense has looked lifeless in this series, but it’s worth noting they faced Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton. Today’s SP, Jake Odorizzi, will not figure into the rotation come October(or sooner) and presents a very attackable matchup for the Mets’ bats. Odorizzi holds a 2.08 WHIP in his 2 starts as a Brave and yielded 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings against the Mets on August 6th. I also worry that Odorizzi’s 0.78 ground ball/fly ball rate is going to bite him down the stretch of this season.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+110) vs Rockies–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery has looked fantastic in his 2 starts as a Cardinal, throwing 11 scoreless innings. I think his heavy ground-ball and soft-contact tendencies will continue to play well at Busch Stadium, and this is another very favorable matchup. The Rockies found marginal success against lefties on the road to start the year, but since June 1st, this lineup holds a measly 77 wRC+ in this role. Fading this offense on the road has been a profitable endeavor for me this season.
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a disastrous 2022 season, bringing a 5.08 ERA and 1.42 WHIP into tonight’s start. While you might think a lot of that failure is due to having to pitch at Coors Field(some of it is), he has not looked all that much better on the road. Specifically, Marquez is striking out just over 6 batters per 9 innings on the road while also walking over 4 per 9 on the road. The Cardinals are averaging just under 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August; since June 1st, they hold a 118 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. As a bonus, 5 projected starters hold a career OPS above 1.000 in their matchups vs Marquez.
The Cardinals’ bullpen might not be a strength, but by nature of the Rockies bullpen ranking 28th in bullpen WHIP, the Cardinals hold a significant advantage in the later innings. We should not be getting plus-money on this.
*MLB(1u): Astros/White Sox F5 UNDER 4(+100)–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Michael Kopech has been phenomenal at home this year(2.81 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). Kopech has particularly stepped up nicely in his tougher home starts, and this matchup might be more favorable than you’d think. While the Astros might be the most complete team in the American League, they bring in a mediocre 103 wRC+ vs righties on the road since June 1st. Judging how they have looked at the plate in this series, I give Kopech the edge on the mound.
Astros SP Framber Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers to back, specifically when he’s on the road(2.21 ERA, 1.03 WHIP away from home this year). Valdez is allowing just 0.44 HR/9 this year due to the fact that he produces 6 times as many ground balls as he does fly balls. While the White Sox have historically matched up well with left-handed pitching, I think you have to put Valdez in his own category of left-hander due to his unique style. Also, with Tim Anderson out and Luis Robert still banged up, this White Sox order is less dangerous in this role than they might otherwise be at full strength.
I made this F5 total 3.5, so I felt comfortable playing this at 4(especially at even odds).
The Cardinals are a large favorite against the Rockies today. While the Rockies are not the worst team in baseball for hitting, they certainly are below average. The problem with the RL here is that Cardinals Pitcher Jordan Montgomery is a little suspect. He came from the Yankees via trade and has a 3.76 FIP, while the Bullpen ranks 19th in the league. Marquez is pitching for the Rockies with a 5.08 ERA and only 7.33 SO per 9 innings. They also have the 6th worst bullpen. I could see the Cardinals scoring over 4.5 runs here but I am not sure if they win 5-2 or 5-4 or any other combination. I am going to take the plus money on the Cardinals TT over 4.5 runs. They are in a tight race with the Brewers and need some bats.
Getting ahead of the game with this one– let’s get out some UFC 278 picks for a huge card this Saturday. Exciting times!
Usman/Edwards- Will it Go the Distance, No (+112), to win 0.56 units
Edwards ML (+300), to win 3 units
Watching their last fight, Edwards had a clear advantage in the stand up game. He was quicker, more agile, and more successful with his little jabs in the first 2 rounds. Usman, on the other hand, owns an unreal gas tank and he easily out-wrestled Edwards in the first showdown. I think that’ll change in this one. That first fight was almost 7 years ago and Edwards is a much different, much more mature fighter. Usman’s knee issues are well-documented and although I still think he should be considered the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC right now, every champ has a moment of forced humility. This feels like the one. Since their last matchup in December 2017, Edwards hasn’t lost a single fight. He’s also faced some of the best fighters in the Welterweight division during that win-span. Edwards is incredibly quick, his takedown defense has dramatically improved, and I think he catches Usman by surprise in the later rounds, which should set up a nice trilogy.
Costa/Rockhold over 1.5 rounds (-135), to win 1.5 units
Paulo Costa is a dangerous fighter but let’s face it, he really hasn’t beaten anyone. Okay he beat Yoel Romero by decision, and Yoel is a freak in more ways than one, but Romero hasn’t had nearly as much success as he should have either. Rockhold is a smart, tough veteran who still thinks he can fight for a title shot. He’s wrong, but it’s doubtful that he’ll just go down after 1 round. Na. I think Rockhold uses his veteran savvy to prolong this fight.
Albazi/Figueiredo- Will it Go the Distance, No (+115)
Albazi is an extremely good wrestler and in short, Figgy won’t have an answer. He’s just not versatile enough. I think Albazi makes another statement and gets an early victory.
