We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back to break down some fantasy football positional rankings! First, Kiev talks some NFL preseason with an obvious play for your Thursday evening. Next, Dave comes on and the guys break down top 35 running backs and top 35 receivers with some busts as well as some sleepers! Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
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We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
NFC North
2021 Records
Green Bay 13-4/ Minnesota 8-9/ Chicago 6-11/ Detroit 3-13-1
Minnesota – It’s out with the old in Mike Zimmer and in with the new in Kevin O’connell and his shiny new ring from the Rams. O’connell coached Kirk Cousins in Washington and should be able to get the most out of him. I think Dalvin Cook is on his way down, but is still an elite RB, however the Vikings have some question marks at Center and Right Guard. Justin Jefferson emerged as one of the top WR options in all of the NFL last year and should get even better in 2022. I think Irv Smith at Tight End coming back from injury will add a new wrinkle and provide some serious match-up problems for opposing offenses in 2022. On defense the Vikings switch to a 3-4 scheme and add free agent Za’Darius Smith in Free agency to anchor the pass rush. The linebackers should be solid inside as well. The issues for the Vikings will be on the line and in the secondary where inexperience is rampant. I do like the talent additions of Harrison Phillips at DT from Buffalo, and Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth who they drafted. If the defense improves so will the Vikings. I think it happens. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Over -125
Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers aka The Drama Llama will come into another season in Green Bay without his favorite target in Davonte Adams who has gone to Vegas baby. MVS also left the receiving corps. It will be up to holdovers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, who are joined in free agency by Sammy Watkins to lead the way for a trio of draft picks led by second round selection Christian Watson. The Packers are hoping Watson becomes the next Adams in their offense. A key for the Pack will be if Robert Tonyan can come back healthy sooner rather than later. The O-line is a question mark mostly on the health of David Bakhtiari. If they can piece things together Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will see plenty of action until the receivers get up to speed. On defense Kenny Clark anchors an improved D-Line with Devonte Wyatt coming on board in the draft. The linebackes lost Za’Darius Smith to the Vikings, but he only played in 2 games last year. De’vondre Campbell came on mid-year inside and was a huge success alongside Rashan Gary at LB. Jaire Alexander leads what should be an elite group of cover corners. Vegas Win Projection: 11 Juiced Over -125
Detroit – Dan Campbell is a passionate guy who makes you want to root for the Lions. However the Lions were bad. I think we see some improvement in 2022. The key will be Jared Goff is essentially playing for a contract with no guaranteed money left on his deal after this season. Goff should have a healthier offensive line with injuries behind them. The line that remained did very well last year especially in the running game with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson provides a bevy of mismatches for opposing teams. Amon St. Brown and Quintez Cephus (Cephus was injured in practice this week. Severity still unknown) are joined by DJ Chark and I expect this group of 3 to make some noise this year. The defense got burned for 380 Yards per game in 2021 and will have to get better to find a way to keep the Lions from a 5th straight year of double digit losses. Aidan Hutchinson was the big addition through the draft as an edge rusher, but the rest of the line and linebackers are underwhelming. The secondary has potential, but unproven starters like Jeff Okudah and injuries have made this a big problem. There is a lot of hype for the Lions, and I think they get better, but the Defense will still hold them back. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -135
Chicago – Not sure if anyone told the Bears, but the draft a QB with a top pick and then put no talent around him formula seems to be an unsuccessful model in today’s NFL. Justin Fields loses his biggest WR in Allen Robinson. Darnell Mooney will have to step up along with Cole Kmet to move the ball down field. David Montgomery is a solid three down back, but he runs behind a putrid O-Line who couldn’t open up holes and allowed and NFL high 58 sacks in 2021. Getting Tevin Jenkins healthy may improve it a bit. The Bears defense loses Khalil Mack, but still has Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson up front to create plenty of havoc. Roquan Smith anchors a solid linebacker core. Jaylon Johnson is a solid #1 Corner, but the rest of the secondary was lacking, however they did spend two top picks in the draft to improve it. I expect the D to keep them in more games than some people suspect. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under -150
2022 Projections
Minnesota 12-5
Green Bay 11-6
Detroit 7-10
Chicago 6-11
NFC North Action
Minnesota – I’m on the over 9 Wins 2 Units. I think Minnesota’s schedule lines up really nice including 6 of the last 8 at home against mostly inferior opponents. I could also see putting in a division win bet on them at around +275 or greater.
Green Bay – No Action. This number looks right. Variable schedule is tough with the Rams, Tampa and Tennessee which limits the upside, and I am not betting on Rodgers to get less than 11.
Detroit – No Action. Easy variable schedule with Seattle, Carolina and Jacksonville is how they are getting to 7 wins.
Chicago – No Action. Slight lean to the under here. I think this team is poised to regress, but they got to 6 wins last year without much to work with either. Granted 4 of those came without Fields running the show.
The turn of the calendar to August means College Football is back! I enjoyed a +27.35u season in 2021 and hit at a 55% clip overall, including an 8-0 finish to the season.
I’m rolling with 2 season win total bets for the Big 10:
*CFB(0.5u): Maryland OVER 5.5 wins(-130)
*CFB(0.5u): Iowa OVER 7.5 wins(+110)
Below, I break down each of these plays as well as my thoughts on the rest of the Big 10 entering this 2022 season.
A subpar start to August brings my overall MLB record to 120-116-5, -0.11u. I’m rolling with a lone play for tonight looking to flip the script and start the new week off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Yankees/Mariners F5 OVER 4(-110)–9:10 PM CT
This is a tough start for each SP as both Taillon and Gilbert made their last start against these same lineups just last week.
Yankees SP Jameson Taillon allowed 5 ER in last week’s matchup and now enters a role he’s struggled in mightily since joining the Yankees. Taillon held an ugly 1.40 WHIP on the road last season and sees his road ERA near 4.50 this season. This Mariners lineup seemed to get off the schneid with a 6 run performance yesterday. While I don’t like how this lineup steps up against top-of-the-line arms, I don’t see Taillon imposing anywhere near that level of a threat.
Mariners SP Logan Gilbert is a young arm that should be in the league for a long time, but he matched up terribly with the Yankees last week; Gilbert allowed 6 ER in total, 3 of which came via the HR ball, as well as 11(!) baserunners. The Yankees have been a bit inconsistent here as of late, but they were able to bring in 9 runs in St. Louis yesterday. I’m not going to hesitate backing a lineup that ranks 1st in wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark, especially in this advantageous spot. I also think that, given Gilbert’s inexperience pitching deep into a MLB season, he could struggle down the stretch.
What a week it was! We went 8-0 in CFL for over 10 units and 8-3 in WNBA for nearly 6 units. A new week is ahead and it’s nice to catch rhythms in sports where we thrive.
Imagine what the NFL and NBA will bring? 😉 From now on I’ll have an “other” picks section if my plays go beyond the major sports I bet. That includes MLB now. This means I don’t track my record and I absolutely do not claim to be an expert of any kind in these “other” sports, I just see an opportunity to bet on.
Onto today’s picks:
WNBA Pick (22-16-1, +5.50 units):
Dallas Wings -4 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Liberty come into this similar to the Dream Sunday, beating up on bad teams and getting their asses handed to them against the better ones. The Wings are one of the better ones. Riding a four-game winning streak into this contest and escaping their trap game against the Fever with an OT win, I like the Wings to settle back in at home in a doubleheader against the less able Liberty. Might look to play back on NY in game two.
Other Picks
(MLB) Jays/O’s over 9 (-125), to win 1 unit
This just sets up too well for an over. The O’s are very confident behind their bats, especially the 2nd half of the season, while the Jays are obviously one of the most dangerous offenses in MLB. Couple that with two pitchers who just CANNOT stay off the chopping block and I love this game to soar over.
Reds ML (+235), to win 1.5 units
The Mets are coming off a celebration Sunday, beating the Braves behind a masterful performance by deGrom and of course, their able bats. This is a sleepy, sleepy spot against a relatively unknown pitcher and Bassitt can be exposed. Sneaky play here, a shot at the ML is worth it for me.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks (0-1, -1.1 units):
Ravens -4 (-110, Preseason Week 1, Aug 11), to win 1.5 units
Well it’s pretty well-documented how good John Harbaugh is in the preseason. In case you didn’t know, he’s 40-12 (77%) straight up in exhibition games and in general, tends to care WAY more about his talent putting in effort and gaining momentum before the regular season begins. At -4, at home, this is a line that should only rise and in reality – take the Ravens.
Giants ML (+105), to win 0.50 units
As an avid reader of all things NY Giants, I can tell you one thing – this team is excited to get on the field. New HC Brian Daboll brings a new regime and new ideas to a NY Giants offense that desperately needs it. Billy Belichik, on the other hand, could probably care less about the game, save for a few good plays from the starters in 1 or 2 drives. Another good way to bet this game is by expecting the Pats to go up early and bet NYG live at a better moneyline price.
Jaguars ML (-125), to win 1 unit
Jaguars 1Q ML (not out yet, probably -115), to win 1 unit
Nice setup for Jacksonville to get a symbolic win under their new head coach. The Hall of Fame game was blown open from the opening drive where that lofty dumb pass fell in the hands of one of LV’s wide receivers. The Jags didn’t play anyone of value but they’ll need more reps in a new system. Take the Jags early and overall; I think they’ll care way more than the Browns do.
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56% all time College Football sides and totals! 12% ROI
54% lifetime sides and totals in College Basketball – 1% ROI
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62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Blue Jays vs Twins +140 O/U 8.5
This isn’t a hard handicap for me when looking at who is pitching. Kevin Gausman gets the helm for Toronto boasting a 3.06 ERA with a huge 2.01 FIP. He is going against Chris Archer who isn’t exactly like Robin Hood with his arrows with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.78 FIP. Neither bullpen is all that good but as for hitting, the Jays rank 3rd in wRC+ as well as wOBA, while the twinkies are around 6th or 7th in both categories. Neither bullpen is all that good for either team, and this will be their downfalls in the post season. Due to the massive IL list for relief pitchers for the Blue Jays, I can trust them to cover the 1st 5 here, but I also very much lean the over and might live bet it after the 4th.
Sunday card has the 100% Interleague Play of the Year, ESPN Sunday night Bases, Soccer and another NASCAR Head to Head driver play. WNBA Comp play below.
The WNBA Comp play is on Seattle at 3:00 eastern. Seattle is in a good spot here as they match up well with Las Vegas and blew them out pretty easily on the road last month winning by 37. Vegas plays very little defense and allows 80 or more regularly. That may spell trouble for them today as Seattle is 16-2 when they score 80 or more in a game. Seattle has covered 5 of 6 on Sunday and 20 of 27 in this series. Las Vegas has failed to cover 6 of 8 vs a winning teams and 6 of 8 vs West Conference teams. The Aces are off a pair of road favored loss while the Storm are off a solid 12 point home win. Look for Seattle to take this one. On Sunday Rob has his Interlleague Play of the Year with a Perfect System dating to 2004, ESPN Sunday night Bases, Soccer and another NASCAR Head to Head driver play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we end the week big. For the WNBA Comp play. Go with Seattle. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Huge night in CFL and we got 2/3 narratives right in UFC. Going light on Sunday – here are my plays:
Aces ML (+105), to win 1.05 units
The issue for the Storm is that Las Vegas is coming into this off 2 straight losses. The WNBA’s best Aces return home on Tuesday and while that may be reason to “mail this in,” I think they respond on the road to get off the schneid.
Lynx -2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Dream are floating around lackadaisical, beating bad teams and getting trounced by the good ones. The Lynx are steadily improving and this is a better spot for them, at home, with the season series tied up. I like the Lynx, who do a lot of the small things right, to clean up in Minnesota.
A 1-1-1 night puts my overall MLB record at 120-114-5, +1.94u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Red Sox F5 -0.5(-105) @ Royals–6:10 PM CT
*MLB(1u): Diamondbacks -1.5(+120) vs Rockies–7:10 PM CT
Saturday Card is Loaded with a TOP Rated MLB Platinum Supreme move, a 5* Canadian Football League Play, Soccer and WNBA Which all swept the board on Friday. MLB Comp Play below
The MLB Comp play is on Seattle in game one of the Double header at 4:10. The Mariners fit a powerful bounce back system that pertains to home favorites that lost at -200 or higher last night but were off back to back road dog wins prior to that. Seattle has Kirby going and he has allowed 2 or less runs in 6 of 7 and hasnt walked more than 1 batter in a start all year. Seattle has won 20 of 27 vs losing teams. LA has lost 10 of 14 in division play and 23 of 32 on the road. They are starting Barria and he wont be in long as he just goes 2-3 inning in what is more of a bullpen game for them. Look for Seattle to win. On Saturday a Powerful card is up and led by a huge MLB Platinum Supreme side, a CFL Power Play with a perfect system a Big WNBA Total and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we build on last nights major sport sweep. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Seattle. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
