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Premiums, 8.6

By
Chris R. Farley
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Well we didn’t get you those UFC and CFL picks during the day but here we are at the wee-hours doing just that. Skipping WNBA Saturday, don’t feel like I have an edge, but we’re onto more CFL, UFC, and here are some early NFL preseason week 1 picks, too!

CFL Picks (12-10, +1.95 units):\
 
BC Lions over 30.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
First Score of Game, Lions TD (+190), to win 1.9 units
Lions 1H -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Teaser (6.5 points): Lions -3.5 and Game over 45 (-120), to win 1 unit
The way to play this game is to play the BC Lions and I’m not sure anyone could tell me differently. Some may say well, the Elks had a week off and BC haven’t yet and that favors Edmonton blah blah. If that’s the case, so be it, but all the data points and all the momentum tells us to wager and wager big on the BC Lions. BC owns the best offense in nearly every category, you name it (TDs, Points, Yards Per Play, 2nd Down Conversion), while Edmonton is defensively at the bottom of almost every pile. In their first matchup, also in BC, the Lions trounced the Elks in a 59-15 beatdown. I don’t think the margin will be as wide in this contest, Edmonton has to have some pride, but BC knows it can’t blow games like this with big Winnipeg still leading the conference, the one team that bested them so far. BC continues putting up points and decimates the Elks once again.
UFC Fight Night Picks (7-12, +2.26 units)
Jamahal Hill wins in Round 1 (+375), to win 1 unit
Jamahal Hill wins in Round 2 (+475), to win 1 unit
No, Fight Does Not Complete 2 Full Rounds (-125), to win 2 units
These are the two most likely outcomes to this fight, so why not put 2 units to win at least 3.75 units? Thiago Santos is always dangerous with that jackhammer of a punch he owns, but this is Hill’s time to shine. The 31 year old is in his prime and coming off two very impressive 1st round finishes. Santos is a huge threat, no doubt, but Hill looks and checks out as a ready contender. Hill takes it early; Santos isn’t one to play cautious and he’ll pay for it.
Mohammad Usman by KO, TKO, or DQ (+500), 0.6 units to win 3 units
This is worth a shot. Winner earns a UFC contract, which is both fighter’s dreams, and even though Pauga seems like the better athlete, Usman is one hell of a name with one hell of a gene pool and the big boy seems very motivated. Training with brother and arguably the current UFC GOAT Kamaru Usman can only pay dividends and if he wins this heavyweight battle, it’ll probably be by one of those heavy ass hands he likes to land. Pauga is good; but all it takes is one swipe from big Muhammad. I’m rollin’ with the underdog with elite DNA.
 
Cory McKenna (-210), to win 1 unit
A hefty price to pay unfortunately but IMO we’re wasting money if we try to predict how this fight will end. Instead, sometimes you just gotta go with the best bet, even if it’s priced a little high. McKenna is beyond eager to get back into the octagon after a split-decision loss back in March. The right strawweight probably won that bout, but the red-head from Wales was on a 4-fight win streak leading up to it. She was also ready to bust out as a real threat in her division. The UFC wanted it, too– that’s why they’re giving her Miranda Granger. Granger is a decently experienced UFC fighter who’s had one impressive victory against Hannah Goldy. Her last fight was nearly 2 years ago and she’s heading into this fight, cold, with a 2-fight losing streak. This is McKenna’s to dominate and regain momentum.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks (0-1, -1.1 units):

Previously Given- Ravens -4 (-110, Preseason Week 1, Aug 11), to win 1.5 units
Well it’s pretty well-documented how good John Harbaugh is in the preseason. In case you didn’t know, he’s 40-12 (77%) straight up in exhibition games and in general, tends to care WAY more about his talent putting in effort and gaining momentum before the regular season begins. At -4, at home, this is a line that should only rise and in reality – take the Ravens.

Giants ML (+105), to win 0.50 units
As an avid reader of all things NY Giants, I can tell you one thing – this team is excited to get on the field. New HC Brian Daboll brings a new regime and new ideas to a NY Giants offense that desperately needs it. Billy Belichik, on the other hand, could probably care less about the game, save for a few good plays from the starters in 1 or 2 drives. Another good way to bet this game is by expecting the Pats to go up early and bet NYG live at a better moneyline price.
Jaguars ML (-125), to win 1 unit
Jaguars 1Q ML (not out yet, probably -115), to win 1 unit
Nice setup for Jacksonville to get a symbolic win under their new head coach. The Hall of Fame game was blown open from the opening drive where that lofty dumb pass fell in the hands of one of LV’s wide receivers. The Jags didn’t play anyone of value but they’ll need more reps in a new system. Take the Jags early and overall; I think they’ll care way more than the Browns do.

August 5th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Sitting at 119-113-4, +1.94u this MLB season, I’m looking to break out this weekend. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to do just that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Guardians TT UNDER 3.5(-135) vs Astros–6:10 PM CT

Astros SP Framber Valdez is a unique case in that he excels far more on the road than he does at home; Valdez holds a beastly 2.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP away from Minute Maid Park. In addition, Valdez’s astounding 6:1 groundball-flyball rate virtually guarantees he’s not a big threat to give up HR’s. This is a very manageable facing off with a Guardians offense that holds just a 83 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark this season. We saw the Guardians put up a goose egg in last night’s game, and quite frankly, I don’t like the way they step up in competition offensively.

Houston also has one of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking 1st in ERA and 2nd in bullpen WHIP this year. The addition of Will Smith at the deadline only added to the strength of this unit, and every arm figures to be available for tonight.

*MLB(1u): Red Sox/Royals F5 UNDER 5(-110)–7:10 PM CT

Royals SP Zack Greinke has simply been marvelous at home this year, bringing in a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 at Kauffman Stadium into tonight’s start. It’s being painted as if the Red Sox’s offensive woes just started in the month of July; that’s simply not the case. Throughout this season, the Sox hold an unimpressive 93 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching away from Fenway Park. This is still a lineup with key bats on the IL(mainly Trevor Story), and while they did add some above average pieces at the deadline, I don’t see them posing much of a threat off of Greinke tonight.

Red Sox SP Josh Winckowski has poor overall numbers this season, but he has found success pitching on the road so far in his young career(3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 3 road starts against Rays, Cubs, Guardians). This is perhaps his easiest road matchup to date facing off with a Royals lineup that has mustered together a poor 85 wRC+ at home vs righties this season. Considering they traded away their two most reliable bats(Merrifield and Benentendi), I don’t expect the Royals to make significant strides offensively over the next 2 months.

*MLB(1u): Mariners -1.5(+115) vs Angels–9:10 PM CT

Mariners SP Robbie Ray has gotten pounded by the Astros in each of his past 2 starts, but he returns home tonight in a clear bounce back spot. The Angels have been one of the worst offenses in the league throughout the summer and are still without Mike Trout. Even when they were staying afloat, they have struggled in this role all season(82 wRC+ vs lefties on the road). Considering Ray has managed a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP at T-Mobile Park this year, this figures to be a start that he can control from start to finish.

Angels SP Patrick Sandoval’s 3.61 ERA is incredibly deceiving; his 1.48 WHIP is much more reflective of the caliber of arm he truly is. In addition to allowing over 1 hit per inning, Sandoval is also walking over 4 batters per 9 innings. This is a sneakily tough matchup facing off with a Mariners offense that holds a very good 120 wRC+ at home vs lefties. In addition, the Mariners were able to put up 17 runs in their 3 game set at Yankee Stadium earlier this week. Even with some key pieces still hurt, I like how the Mariners match up with this overvalued lefty arm.

The Mariners also hold a pretty sizeable advantage in the later innings. Seattle’s bullpen ranks T-2nd in bullpen WHIP this year and are coming off the heels of an off day. The Angels’ pen has been mediocre at best, and considering they traded away their closer, I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers worsen throughout the rest of the way.

WNBA Free Pick – August 5: Mystic vs. Sky

By
Kate Constable
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We’re 3-0 in our last three WNBA picks +2.4 units. Let’s get another win tonight to finish off the work week.

Mystics +6 (Barstool), 1 unit*

The Washington Mystics are playing some of their best basketball right now. They’ve won five of their last six games and are coming off a big win over the Aces despite being underdogs. They find themselves as underdogs once again in tonight’s matchup in Chicago, but we think they have what it takes to cover the +6 spread. (You can find +6 at Barstool. Most other places have this at +5.5, which I would be fine taking as well.)

Washington’s offense has been rolling lately. They rank second in 3PT% over their last five games and have out-shot their opponents from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Defensively, the Mystics are first in opponent’s points in the paint and opponent’s FT%. This isn’t a great sign for Chicago being the Sky lead the league in points in the paint and are great at drawing contact and getting to the free throw line. I expect the Mystics to make disrupting that aspect of Chicago’s game a major focus tonight.

Washington also has a fairly easy schedule over their next three games to finish out the regular season. They play one against the Los Angeles Sparks and two against the Indiana Fever. Both those games should be easily winnable if they show up and play their brand of basketball. Knowing this, I could see Washington coming into tonight’s game ready to get a statement win in their last big challenge of the regular season. Meanwhile, Chicago has a brutal schedule to end their season. Their next three games are against the Aces, Sun and Storm before finishing things off against the Mercury. This could be a potential look-ahead spot for Chicago knowing the competition that awaits.

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

Premiums, 8.5

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up good people! Another good day overall. Officially we’re 0-1 in the NFL this year, how tragic lol, but fortunately it’s only preseason. A good day in CFL and good enough in WNBA, we move on! Doubling down in CFL, again, and I’ll send out some more CFL and some UFC picks later today.

WNBA Picks (20-14-1, +6.20 units):
 
Atlanta Dream -4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Something is STILL wrong in LA and although the Dream have been up and down lately, this is a good spot against an inferior foe, at home, and it only helps that Atlanta lost to this same Sparks team just 2 weeks ago. On paper Atlanta probably should’ve won that game, too, but the Sparks shot a ridiculous +50% from the field AND from beyond the arc. That won’t happen again.
 
Washington Mystics +6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Mystics are a team I want to bet on right now. The Sky? Not so much. Ever since their Commissioner’s Cup title loss, it feels like something’s been off with this team. Sure they won 2/3 of their next games, but their last loss against Dallas and some wins that were close to the end against teams they shouldn’t have that much trouble with – that tells me the Mystics will give Chicago more than enough trouble Friday night. And for whatever reason, Chicago is a rough 6-9-1 ATS on their home floor. The Mystics are actually better ATS on the road (11-5). The Sky owns a 2-1 lead in this season series; I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington won this tonight. I expect them to cover.
CFL Picks (10-10, -1.20 units):
 
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Calgary Stampeders -4.5 (-110), to win 1.65 units
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down the opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game.
MLB Leans:
 
Mets (-135)
 
Yankees -1.5 (+110)
 
Rockies (+108)

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 5/9 – NFC East

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

NFC East

2021 Records

Dallas 12-5/ Philadelphia 9-8/ Washington 7-10/ NY Giants 4-13

Dallas – Even with Mike McCarthy still as head coach the Cowboys should be the class of this division again in 2022. They did lose some key pieces in Amari Cooper and Randy Gregory and will likely take a small step backwards, which doesn’t bode well for their post-season drought. Dak still has the injury bug just looming around waiting to bite as his calf injury affected him in the second half of last year. Zeke and Tony Pollard will likely split time in the backfield and should be effective. The WR corps is down to just CeeDee Lamb and a bunch of unproven guys, someone will have to step up to help. The O-Line has also regressed slightly. The defense gave up over 350 yards per game and that put them 19th in the league. While they lost Randy Gregory they did replace him with former #3 overall pick Dante Fowler. They also addressed the DL in the draft with Sam Williams. The linebacking core has Micah Parsons who is a stud, but they aged a century or so resigning Vander Esch. Trevon Diggs was a ball hawk half the time and a scapegoat the other half. The Cowboys will need to find some secondary improvement to compete in the playoffs. Vegas Win Projection: 10 Juiced Over -120

Philadelphia – The AJ Brown deal was one of the big splashes of the NFL off-season, he gives Jalen Hurts a true target and elite possession receiver. The problem for me is it is still Jalen Hurts. The same guy who was replaced for lack of accuracy and down field effectiveness in the college title game by Tua. They rode a weak 2nd half schedule to a 9-8 record last year and a playoff berth where they got shellacked by the Bucs who rode out to a 31-0 lead before calling off the dogs. The running game is truly led by Hurts, and Miles Sanders now a year older has been hurt and largely ineffective. The O-Line stays together from last year and is strongest unit on the offense. The Philly Defense was abused in the passing game allowing an NFL high 69.4% completion percent. They signed Haasan Reddick and Kyzir White to try and increase some pressure on opposing QBs to help the secondary. They were 31st in sacks per game in 2021. Fletcher Cox has become ineffective on the line, and the rest of the crew is also below average. Lots of people are in on the Eagles this year. Not me. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced over -125

Washington – The Commanders and Dan Synder continued to be the most dysfucntional in the NFL (Honorable mention to Cleveland) Carson Wentz comes to rescue the Commanders and return them to glory! Or a top 5 overall pick in 2023. I liked Taylor Heinicke’s play on the field, but the talent level was just lacking. Terry McLaurin re-signs and if he develops some chemistry with Wentz could bring a new dynamic to the offense. I like the draft pick of Jahon Datson to give them a dynamic offense weapon to deploy opposite McLaurin. Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic provide very solid 3 down coverage in the backfield. Logan Thomas could be a dynamic player if he comes back healthy from his knee injury. The defense greatly underachieved in 2021 led by 2021 ROY Chase Young who only amassed 1.5 sacks before suffering an ACL injury in week 10. The rest of the D-line is solid if unassuming. Linebacker is a huge weakness and losing Landon Collins in his hybrid linebacker/safety role isn’t going to help. I think Kendall Fuller could become a Revis Island type corner this year in the secondary. Vegas Win Projection: 8 Even Juice at -110

New York Giants – I thought the Daniel Jones era should be over in New York, much like the eras of another Head Coach and GM. This team just can’t build any consistency with the constant turnover. I like the Brian Daboll hire so hopefully they can get things moving in the right direction. I just don’t think it will be this year with Jones still running the show. Daboll’s first moves were getting him some veteran offensive line help. Saquon Barkley has never lived up to potential, but maybe with the improvement on O-Line he will. the receiving core of Golladay, Toney and Shepard have tons of talent, but sometimes it seems not the drive to succeed. Evan Neal is a huge win in the draft. Of course Kayvon Thibodeaux is the real draft prize. I had him as my #1 player in the draft pool and think he has a big time immediate impact. Don “Wink” Martindale takes over as DC and will likely find creative ways to use him and Azeez Ojulari up front to create havoc. He will have to come up for some ways to help a porous secondary with very little experience. Vegas Win Projection: 7 Juiced Under at -130

2022 Projections:

Dallas 11-6

Philadelphia 8-9

Washington 7-10

NY Giants 4-13

NFC East Action:

Dallas – Lean Over. I think this division is fairly static this year. Worry about Dak staying healthy as the main reason this isn’t a play.

Philadelphia – Lean Under. Even though my projection is 8-9, the schedule is weak and I could see a way they end up at 11 or 12 wins if everything breaks right.

Washington – No Play. Lots of variables in play with Wentz and injured players coming back.

NY Giants – Under 7 Wins 1.5 Units. I just don’t see this team being 3 wins better even with a weaker schedule. I certainly dont see a way for them to 8 wins and a loss on this wager. Jacksonville and Houston are gonna beat somebody right?

 

 

 

 

PREMIER LEAGUE IS BACK!!! Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Free Plays

By
Steve Norman
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We are back baby!  Remember if you want all of my NFL and Premier League insight and picks for the 2022-23 seasons, be sure to subscribe to my Premium picks.  Finished 5th place in Circa with my main man @farleybets, along with a solid 58% winning NFL betting record last season!

Reminder my premium packages are up and can be found at this link:

Steve Norman Premium Picks

Message me directly @Bohbohbets on twitter to receive a special package deal for the ENTIRE NFL and Premier League soccer seasons.  That’s a subscription from August to May!!!!

Current EPL Record 2022: 0-0, 0 Units

Arsenal -120 1 Unit and Under 2.5 (-111) 2 Units

Tomorrow Matchday 1 kicks off with Arsenal traveling to Selhurst Park where they will face Crystal Palace @ 3pm est.

It was a disappointing end of the 2021/22 campaign for Arsenal as they stumbled down the stretch and failed to qualify for Champions League.  Their up and down play was not only on the back stretch of the season, but the beginning as well starting 0-3. This club can not have a repeat of last season and needs to start sharp and play the consistent high level soccer they are capable of.  It was not too long ago these two clubs met in April where CP handed Arsenal an embarrassing 3-0 loss.  CP got two early goals demoralizing Arsenal and finished them off with a pk in the 2nd.  This was a classic case of the match stats not correlating to the outcome; on paper Arsenal controlled that match.  Revenge is mind here for Arsenal, not only against CP but for underachieving last season.  The stage is set up perfectly for them to travel on the road in a tough atmosphere for the opening day match to make a huge statement to the league.

Now this is no easy task for Arsenal, CP is a very dangerous club that plays to their competitions level.  Last season CP tied Brighton for the lead in match draws with 15.  Arsenal lead the league with the fewest draws of 3.  When Arsenal plays they either win or lose.  Tomorrow it will be a win.  I am looking for CP to come out spirited with high intensity due to the opening night game home atmosphere.  Arsenal will survive the first emotional onslaught brought by CP and settle in controlling the pace of play.  I am looking for a methodical Arsenal attack with an emphasis of controlling possession and constant ball movement to spring free runners.  A balanced well paced Arsenal approach will help defend against the dangerous counter attack CP is often capable of.  I see this being an extremely tight game where eventually Arsenal breaks through in the second half.  Not giving up a goal and blanking CP I like a final match prediction of 1-0 hitting both the ML and the Under.

 

 

 

WNBA Free Pick – August 4: Mercury vs. Sun

By
Kate Constable
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We had a nice 2-0 night on Tuesday, bringing our WNBA record to 5-4, +1.4 units, here at The Odds Breakers.  

Mercury 1H +6.5, 1 unit*

The Connecticut Sun destroyed the Phoenix Mercury 87-63 on Tuesday night. Thankfully for Diana Taurasi and company, they get another shot at the Sun tonight. Instead of a play on the full game, I really like the Mercury to cover the first half at +6.5. With Tuesday’s loss, Phoenix has dropped out of the eighth and final playoff spot thanks to New York owning the tie-breaker between the two teams. With only five total games left, including tonight’s, the Mercury doesn’t have any time to waste if they want to move back up the standings. The Sun are a much better team, both offensively and defensively, but Phoenix is going to come into this one with plenty of motivation after a poor performance in their last outing. They’re also a team that has responded well after embarrassing double-digit losses, like Tuesday’s.

Another thing working in Phoenix’s favor in the first half is that Connecticut tends to get off to mediocre starts before exploding in the second half. They’re great at making halftime adjustments before putting teams away down the stretch. The Mercury aren’t good enough to keep up with them for a full 40 minutes, but playoff motivation, revenge motivation and Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith leading the charge, they have what it takes to keep the first half close.

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

August 4th MLB Play(s)

By
Michael Fordham
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I carry a 118-112-4, +1.94u into tonight and have locked 1 play in. I’ll likely be on another as well. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) @ Rangers–7:05 PM CT

Rangers SP Cole Ragans will be making his Major League debut in an incredibly tough spot. The White Sox rank 1st in the league with a 133 wRC+ on the road vs left-handed pitching and have mashed lefties each of the past 3 seasons. While Ragans has good overall numbers in the minors, he has had his fair share of struggles with walks. This is not only a major step up in competition, but it’s also a horrible matchup. While the White Sox have been inconsistent this season overall, they have gotten each of their key right-handed bats healthy and back off of the IL and started to get the bats going in their recent home stand.

I would also lean towards the White Sox F5 -0.5 given the Rangers’ poor current form and overall inadequiacies vs right-handed pitching. My only concern is I worry Johnny Cueto is due for some serious regression sooner than later. Cueto’s FIP is a well over 1 run higher than his ERA, and he has scathed by with a left-on-base percentage well over 80%.

I’ll isolate the matchup I feel best about and trust the White Sox offense in this advantageous spot.

*Likely on Cardinals G2 TT OVER 4.5 for 1u

The Cardinals will be playing a double-header today after last night’s game was postponed. Given they face a vulnerable lefty in Game 2 of this twin bill and rank 1st in wRC+ vs lefties at home, I will likely be on their TT tonight. With that said, I’m a huge stickler about not playing the 2nd game of a DH before we see the first. I expect to be on this, but make sure you’re following my Twitter and/or are in my Telegram group to be certain.

MLB 8/4/22 Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Oakland vs LA Angels -112 O/U 8

The Angels of the outfield are still not back with Mike Trout’s behind still planted on the DL, and Anthony Rendon still licking his wounds from that brawl.   More importantly, we have to look at the pitchers in this matchup.  Oakland’s Paul Blackburn has been good this year with a 3.8 FIP, but absolutely sick on the road with a away split of 2.88 FIP and a .250 wOBA.   Angels young pitcher Jason Junk better have some good junk today being that he has less than 25 innings of major league experience, with a 4.7 FIP.  I think that Oakland wins the starting pitching matchup here in LA, and I think the 1st 5 at -110 warrants a play.

Oakland 1st 5 -110 – 1.5 stars

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