We already gave away Notre Dame +15 as our first play for CFB Week 1, but Week 0 will still present some opportunities. Here’s our first play of the weekend.
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units
Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
A 2-0, +2u Sunday capped off a 14-5, +9.95u week and brings my overall MLB record to 144-128-5, +10.77u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT
If I’m not priced out of backing Mets SP Max Scherzer, I’ll probably be on him. Scherzer has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball over the last decade, delivering a sub-1.00 WHIP in 7 of his last 10 seasons. Additionally, Mad Max is allowing a career low 0.66 HR/9 this season. I am not afraid to play against the Yankees right now considering they have been shut out in 3 of their last 8 games and are just 5-14 in the month of August. Even over a larger sample, a 112 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st is relatively unimpressive.
The Mets bring a ton of momentum into tonight’s game after another comeback victory against the Phillies yesterday, a game in which they plated 10 runs. They’ll get a favorable matchup facing off with Domingo German. German held an ERA north of 5.00 at Yankee Stadium last year and has shown little-to-nothing that inspires confidence this year. The Mets hold a 117 wRC+ vs righties away from home since June 1st and are a professional lineup from 1-9.
I would heavily advise to isolate the SP matchup and avoid any shenanigans in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Rays -1.5(+105) vs Angels–6:10 PM CT
This is a clear mismatch that not many people will give credence to. Since June 1st, the Rays rank 5th in baseball with a 140 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. In that same stretch, the Angels have amassed a league worst 60 wRC+ vs lefties away from their home park and have been terrible in this role all year. To make matters worse, Shohei Ohtani is unlikely to play tonight due to a stomach bug, making this weak lineup even weaker.
Rays SP Jeffrey Springs has been incredibly reliable at the Trop this year, bringing a 2.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home into tonight’s start. Angels SP Tucker Davidson holds a 1.74 WHIP on the year and has walked an astounding 6.75 batters per 9 innings throughout his career.
The Rays will also hold a sizable bullpen edge in the later innings. While Brooks Raley and Peter Fairbanks figure to be unavailable, the Rays pen(5th in bullpen WHIP) is a very deep unit. The Angels bullpen is mediocre at best and is sure to be unreliable over the last month of the season.
We should not be getting this at plus-money.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-110) @ Cubs–7:05 PM CT
We have cashed with the Cardinals 6(!) straight days and are now +14.21u on our action in Cardinals games this year. With how red hot this team is, I am on “auto bet” mode with them until given a reason not to be.
Over their current 7 game win streak, the Red Birds are averaging 8 runs/game. I have been able to trust them against left-handed pitching all year, and that’s exactly the spot they find themselves in tonight. Cubs SP Drew Smyly is an adequate Major League starter, but he is certainly attackable. Smyly is giving up over 1 hit per inning this year, holds a mediocre 1.25 WHIP, and is allowing 1.6 HR/9 at Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs traded away most(if not all) of their valuable relievers and surely will finish with a bottom 10 bullpen in the league.
I know we’ve had success backing Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery since he joined the club a few weeks ago, but this is his first road start as a Red Bird. Given his career inconsistencies on the road, I feel much better isolating this Cardinals offense at a very reasonable number and price.
Scratching and clawing this season out the gate. So close to having big weekends and just slightly off the mark for pushes and minimal Units gained. Good news staying in the green as we are figuring out which clubs are shaping up to be real contenders this season. Nothing better than some 3pm Monday action to kick your work week off!
Current PL Record: 17-14 +3.93 Units
LVP ML -150 1 Unit
Not exactly the start we expected from either club the first two weeks of action. Manchester United has yet to show up this season and is coming off a 4-0 blowout at Brentford. Usually I am a sucker for a bounce back narrative, loving a club to right their wrongs after that kind of showing; especially at home. It just doesn’t set up well for MU here with an LVP club coming into Old Trafford who hasn’t exactly been playing to the top notch quality we expect.
I have been very critical of LVP from the jump this season and for good reason, they are suppose to be a world class club. First match they were a shell of themselves somehow finding a way to escape out of Fulham with a draw. Followed up with an undisciplined performance against Crystal Palace going a man down due to a selfish red card. Fortunately finding a way to come back down both a player and a goal for a draw. The point is as this season gets under way and the more we see these clubs perform…. maybe just maybe the competition that LVP has been playing is not as bad as I initially thought. Fulham for example has hit the ground running starting 1-2-0 gaining 5 points on the table. Not bad for a recently promoted club who had to play LVP, travel to Wolverhampton, and then just got done beating Brentford 3-2. Remember that’s Brentford who just took care of MU 4-0 the week prior.
LVP has not been playing polished what-so-ever, but they aren’t losing and have played tougher competition then expected. It is early but the season can get away from them rather quickly the way Arsenal and Man City have been playing; if they do not gain a win here for the points table. With the Man City draw yesterday to Newcastle, the door has been slightly cracked to make up some ground with the top dogs. It is a must win in reality for both clubs who have been struggling. I am taking the club that has more to play for ultimately in this league and is a legit contender. LVP wins match prediction 2-0.
We have arrived at week 2 of the Pre-Season, which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
This article will focus on where I see value on the Super Bowl, Conferences and Player Awards
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Playoffs
As I have gone through each division article, I’ve highlighted where I think each team will finish based on my power rankings and head to head simulations. I will use those records here to give you a mock playoffs for this fall.
1.)Tampa Bay 2.)Minnesota 12-5 3.)LA Rams 11-6 4.)Dallas 11-6 5.)Green Bay 11-6 6.)New Orleans 10-7 7.)Arizona 9-8
Wild Card Weekend Scores
Buffalo 27 Cincinnati 20 – Tennessee 17 Indianapolis 14 – LA Chargers 27 Kansas City 24
Minnesota 27 Arizona 17 – LA Rams 31 New Orleans 27 – Green Bay 24 Dallas 13
Divisional Round Scores
Tennessee 24 Baltimore 14 – Buffalo 37 LA Chargers 24
Green Bay 31 Tampa Bay 21 – LA Rams 22 Minnesota 17
Conference Championships
Buffalo 31 Tennessee 13
Green Bay 27 LA Rams 23
Super Bowl LVII
Buffalo 31 Green Bay 24
Futures Bets
Buffalo at +575 is the Super Bowl Favorite for a reason. Its a fair number for as tough as the AFC will be, but since they were my pick I have to play it. Other numbers I like are Green Bay +1000, Tennessee and New Orleans +3500. I’ll have smaller bets on those. I think the longshot value on conference champions is on those same teams.
Season Long Player Awards
Before I get into my picks I will have a +3800 MVP pick in on Jonathan Taylor. He is the favorite for Offensive Player of the year, and while MVP hasn’t gone to a RB since LT in 2006 if Indy has a big year it will be because of him so I think this is a huge value.
MVP– Josh Allen +470. I think the Bills are the best team in the league, and Allen fills up the stat sheet both through the air and on the ground.
Offensive Player of the Year – Christian McCaffrey +1400. I think the Panthers are better and he will be Baker’s safety net. Of course he has to stay healthy for a full season, but at this price it is worth the risk.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Christian Watson +1400. Aaron Rodgers is trying to get him up to speed fast following his knee scope. If Rodgers is targeting him now in limited action at practice I can only imagine what he will do once we get to live games.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Devin Lloyd +1800. The Jags are bad so this defense will be on the field a bunch and he will have many chances to fill up the stat sheet. If he gets close to 150 tackles with 10+ for a loss and some turnover stats I’d say he has a very good shot.
Defensive MVP – TJ Watt +700. Just think he’s the best player on that side of the ball right now and if Pittsburgh makes the playoffs somehow he will be a main reason. I also like Roquan Smith in a contract year here at +3000.
Comeback Player of the Year – Michael Thomas +1100. This guy can play when he wants to and is healthy. If both come true this year lookout in New Orleans.
A 2-1, +0.95u Saturday brings me to 12-5, +7.95u on the week and 142-128-5, +8.77u on the season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to close the weekend out strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
We have cashed with the Cardinals each of the past 5 days, and I’m +13.21u on my action in Cardinals’ games this season. I will continue to back them until given a reason not to.
Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has enjoyed a nice bounce back season, and he’s in very good current form(5 ER across his last 5 starts). Quintana is limiting HR’s at the best rate since his 2014 season, allowing just 0.6 HR/9 this season. The Diamondbacks are a bit of a wild card offense, and they’ve actually handled left-handed pitching nicely in their home ballpark. However, it is a lineup that has seen its slugging diminish throughout the course of the summer and is not in particularly great current form.
The Cardinals offense is RED HOT(as we all know). They scored 16 runs last night, 13 runs on Thursday, and throughout the course of August, they are averaging nearly 6.5 runs/game. DBacks SP Merrill Kelly holds a sub-3.00 ERA on the year, but he is not an overpowering arm. We’d be on the Cardinals regardless, but I actually think this could be a more favorable matchup than the price would let on.
I felt comfortable playing this over the full game because the Cardinals hold a sizable advantage in the later innings. The Cards’ bullpen holds a 0.12 point advantage in the WHIP category, and I think that becomes an even wider gap when you compare the late-inning arms.
Let’s make it 6 straight!
*MLB(1u): Orioles ML(-105) vs Red Sox–6:10 PM CT
The Red Sox should not be a team you’re afraid to play against. This offense has been horrific throughout the course of the summer; here in the month of August, they hold a measly 89 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Orioles SP Dean Kremer’s fly-ball nature will get him in trouble on the road in his tougher matchups, but I don’t worry much about that against the middling lineup.
Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta is truly a hit-or-miss arm. He had a stretch earlier this summer where he looked like an All-Star, but he’s far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot like this. His 1.29 WHIP is pretty reflective of that. This is also a much tougher matchup than people will assume. Since June 1st, the Orioles hold a 109 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching at home; since August 1st, that jumps all the way up to 136. The Orioles have been in a groove for quite awhile now.
A big part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. While the Orioles did trade away Jorge Lopez at the Deadline, they still have a far better bullpen than Boston; they bring a 0.14 point advantage in the WHIP category into tonight’s game.
These are two teams going in opposite directions. I’d rather be on the young team that’s playing with their hair of fire in a “nothing to lose” spot.
Sunday Card has NFLX Top Total + ESPN Sunday night Baseball and the WNBA Total of the Year. Early Football below
The NFL Comp play for Sunday is under 36 in the Cleveland at Philly game at 1:00 eastern. In the series these two have gone under 4 straight with the games averaging a shade under 28 per game. The Browns have gone under in 6 straight game twos and their defense looked good last week in a a road win over the Jaguars. The Browns have gone under in 19 of 22 the last 7 years in NFLX games. The Eagles blew the lead in a home loss to the Jets and they will look to shore up on defense here especially in the later part of the game. Look for this game to stay under. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Well shit, I can’t say I’m too eager to bet the WNBA right now because everything else is going TREMENDOUSLY!
After going 1-0 in CFL, 4-0 in the NFL Preseason and 5-0 in UFC, we’re 43-19 (69%) for +31.78 units the last 3 weeks. Yesterday we won over 15 units alone.
Let’s. Fucking. GO!!!!! Onto a light Sunday:
MLB Leans:
Astros (+124)
Phillies ((-126)
Marlins/Dodgers under 7.5 (-120)
Red Sox/Orioles over 8.5 (-120)
WNBA Playoffs (0-7, -8.91 units):
Wings 1Q +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
There’s so much to celebrate but the WNBA playoffs isn’t one of them. Still, we see some value in some plays today and let’s start with this contest. It’s the playoffs, Dallas will be desperate, and even though the Sun are obviously the way better team, the Wings should keep this close early. The Sun tend to smash late and maybe they won’t be as fiery or efficient early. Let’s hope.
Mystics/Storm under 160 (-110), to win 1 unit
Last game these two squads soared slightly over 160 points but their shooting was silly. They shot 48% and 50% from the field, and the Storm shot 50% from beyond the arc! That’s not normal. These are two talented defenses, two of the best in the WNBA, and this total should regress.
NFL Preseason Week 2 (13-4, +11.15 units):
Bengals +5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Giants should win this game since Cincinnati isn’t playing any starters BUT, the Giants have
We kept things rolling with a 2-1, +1u Friday. That brings me to 10-4, +7.05u on the week and 140-127-5, +7.82u on the season. I’m sticking with 3 plays for today looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies GM1 F5 -0.5(-115) vs Mets–12:05 PM CT
Phillies SP Zack Wheeler got hit around by the Mets in Queens last weekend, but he now returns home for a great bounce back opportunity. At home this year, Wheeler holds a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP; considering he held a 0.87 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park last year, this is absolutely a role I can trust him in. While the Mets offense has been solid in this role, they have proven this week that they still have a tough time stepping up in competition on the road.
Mets SP Trevor Williams is making a spot start today and doesn’t figure into this Mets rotation on a consistent basis. While his overall numbers are solid, he has struggled on the road(4.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9). This Phillies offense is very inconsistent(to put it mildly), but they have actually been quite good in this role throughout the summer. Since June 1st, the Phils hold a 123 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark.
*MLB(1u): Rays -1.5(+110) vs Royals–3:10 PM CT
Rays SP Drew Rasmussen flirted with a perfect game in his last start, but that has little to do with why I’m backing him. In addition to holding sub-3.00 ERA on the year, Rasmussen has been absolutely lights out at the Trop; he carries a 1.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home this year. Why would I be afraid to play against a Royals lineup that has plated just 4 runs across their last 4 games? After all, they hold just an 86 wRC+ in this role since June 1st.
Royals SP Kris Bubic has improved throughout the year, but given how poor he started, that’s not saying much. Bubic(5.11 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) is allowing well over 1 hit per inning and has yielded nearly 2 HR/9 on the road over the past two seasons. I’ve been very critical of this Rays offense this season, but this is the one role they’ve found consistent success in. Since June 1st, the Rays hold a 133 wRC+ vs lefties at the Trop.
A big part of this handicap is the bullpen disparity. The Royals hold far-and-away the worst bullpen numbers in baseball, while the Rays have a borderline-top 5 bullpen in the game. When you combine this clear mismatch with the rest of this handicap, it’s indefensible that we’re being offered plus-money here.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-125) @ Diamondbacks–7:10 PM CT
We’re officially on “auto-bet” mode with the Cardinals after cashing with them each of the past 4 days. This is a team we’ve seen well all year(+12.21u), so I see no reason to hop off now.
St. Louis is scoring over 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August and has been consistently good against left-handed pitching all summer. DBacks SP Madison Bumgarner is a shell of his former self, bringing a 4.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. His strikeouts are down, his hits are up, but most of all, Bumgarner is in especially bad current form entering tonight; he has allowed 19 ER over his last 4 starts.
As we saw last night, the DBacks bullpen is completely unreliable and should be faded into oblivion.
This should be a great fight in the bamtam weight division between a 35 year old Aldo who is a former champion and has fought the best of the best vs a very up and coming man from Georgia in Dvalishvili. Let’s look at Merab. He is 14-4 with solid wins vs Cody Staaman, Marlon Moraes, add Casey Kinney. None of the wins were that convincing but still solid. Merab has a powerful agressive style where his striking is solid but his wrestling exhausts his opponents at 7.3 take downs per 15 minutes. He has 7 wins since his two ugly losses back in 2017/2018. Jose Aldo on the other hand is only four years older than Merab with a much greater strength of schedule. Aldo’s only losses since 2005 were against the likes of Conner McGregor, Marlon Moraes, Petyr Yan, Max Holloway, and Alexander Volkanovski. I would say that these Ls were quite excusable. Aldo has since ripped three nice wins in a row vs Marlon Vera, Rob Font and Pedro Munhoz. The key to this handicap is that Aldo is very tough to take down. His grappling defense is an amazing 90% and should be able to counter what he can see coming. Merab has gotten himself in some trouble in his last few fights, and he is stepping up greatly in class here at UFC 278. This line should be a pickem at best. Take the dog.
HUGE Saturday Card up with NFLX Executive level TIER 3 Big MLB Plays INCLUDING a Platinum Supreme, MMA UFC 278 Top Total Rounds play in the Main Event, Tennis, Soccer and More. CFL Play below
The CFL Comp play is on Toronto plus the points here tonight at 7:00 eastern. Toronto has covered 7 of 9 off a loss and are taking points at home to a Calgary team that blew a 13 point home lead to British Columbia last week in a 41-40 home loss. Calgary may be rip for a let down here tonight. Toronto and home dogs in this league of 3 or less are perfect if the total is 50 or higher and they are off a road loss and their opponent is off a home loss. Toronto is 4th on both sides of the ball in totals yards. Calgary is 5th and 8th in totals yards. Look for Toronto to get the cover. On Saturday we have a Tremendous card up with several TOP play in NFLX INCLUDING A Rare TIER 1 Side, 3 big MLB Plays, Soccer and Tennis and UFC 278.. Football Sweeps on Friday. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on tonight as we Continue to cash. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
