LV Aces/Dallas Wings 1H over 84.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Firstly, you best believe that this game is circled for Dallas, at home, against their conference’s #1 team after losing the first two matchups this season. This is a great setup to take the Wings, who are in 3rd in the West and need to keep their playoff hopes alive. The first contest between these two clubs was low-scoring and out-of-the-ordinary. Both teams shot around 25% from beyond the arc, ew, and both teams had bad overall shooting nights. In their second matchup things regressed to the mean, far eclipsing the total. At home, I think the Wings come out firing like they did in their last home game against Vegas. Dallas has been a top 3 offense over their last 5 games, the Aces defense hasn’t looked sharp, and the Aces love to run the floor at a fast-pace in response to their opponent’s offensive success. While this could slow down late in a testy conference game, I’ll take the 1H over and the Wings to make it a competitive contest.
HEY, there’s NFL football on tonight! Remember when we bet on baseball? lol… I’ve also added a new play, in red, in the CFL, since I think that line has moved down WAY too much.
NFL First Pick of the Season!
HOF Game Under 33 (-105), to win 1 unit Hall of Fame games average 29 ppg since 2012, and now more than ever, teams are trying to avoid injury and avoid showing all their new talent in the preseason. That’s especially true in the Hall of Fame game. It’s more a scrimmage or practice than a game, so I think it’s well worth a shot at the under.
WNBA Picks (19-13-1, +6.30 units):
Wings +8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit, and
LV Aces/Dallas Wings over 84.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Firstly, you best believe that this game is circled for Dallas, at home, against their conference’s #1 team after losing the first two matchups this season. This is a great setup to take the Wings, who are in 3rd in the West and need to keep their playoff hopes alive. The first contest between these two clubs was low-scoring and out-of-the-ordinary. Both teams shot around 25% from beyond the arc, ew, and both teams had bad overall shooting nights. In their second matchup things regressed to the mean, far eclipsing the total. At home, I think the Wings come out firing like they did in their last home game against Vegas. Dallas has been a top 3 offense over their last 5 games, the Aces defense hasn’t looked sharp, and the Aces love to run the floor at a fast-pace in response to their opponent’s offensive success. While this could slow down late in a testy conference game, I’ll take the 1H over and the Wings to make it a competitive contest.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
Blue Bombers -4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game..
We have a great show for you today! Doug Upstone from Doc Sports is back to break down some NFL Pigskin! First, the guys talk about some baseball and reactions from the trade deadline. Next, Kiev and Doug get right into football asking which teams will make the playoffs that didn’t make it last year, and vice-versa. Then, Doug and Kiev get into some NFL divisions with season win total plays and some future bets. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN Santos vs Hill. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!
The Marlins are sending out their star pitcher, Sandy Alcantara. Sandy continues to prove that he belongs in the conversation as one of the best starting pitchers in the game.
Alcantara is 9-4, posting a 1.99 ERA which is 2nd best in the league among qualified pitchers. On top of that unbelievable ERA, he has 138 strikeouts, ranking 9th best in the MLB.
His Home/Away splits are nearly identical, so it seems Sandy is comfortable in any ballpark he pitches in.
Home Splits Record: 5-3 ERA: 2.00 OBA: .190
Away Splits Record: 4-1 ERA: .198 OBA: .199
Overall during the 2022 season, the opponents’ average is a measly .194 against Alcantara. He has the advantage of going against a lousy Reds lineup who just traded away one of their best hitter in Brandon Drury.
The Cincinnati Reds rank 22nd in ISO (.140), 20th in wOBA (.304), and have the 4th highest K-Rate (24.1%) in the MLB.
Reds starter Mike Minor has been anything but good this season. Minor is 1-7 with an era of 6.31. Minor has given up at least one home run in all but one of his starts this season and at least two home runs in 4 of his 10 starts.
I like the value in backing one of the best pitchers in the game and hoping the Marlins can sneak a run or two across early against a weaker pitcher in Mike Minor.
A 1-2 night brings my overall MLB record to 118-112-4, +1.94u. I’m sticking with 1 play looking to right the ship and start another run. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+115) vs Cubs–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas not only holds a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP on the season, but those numbers improve significantly in his home ballpark(2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). Mikolas has impeccable control(1.4 BB/9 at home this year) but is simultaneously allowing just 7.15 H/9. The Cubs were shut out last night by Adam Wainwright and co. and in general have looked lifeless at the plate for most of this road trip. While they (shockingly) retained both Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ, this is a lineup that holds a measly 93 wRC+ vs righties on the road this season.
Cubs SP Justin Steele might hold a sub-4.00 ERA, but his 1.43 WHIP is downright gross. In addition, Steele has consistently struggled away from Wrigley Field this season, carrying a 4.71 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this year. This is a nightmare matchup for Steele facing off with a Cardinals lineup that ranks 1st in the league with an astounding 141 wRC+ vs lefties at home this season. The Red Birds are also in great current form offensively, scoring at least 5 runs in each of their 5 ballgames.
The Cardinals’ bullpen is extremely fresh after an off day on Monday and only needing Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton in last night’s win. On the other hand, the Cubs traded David Robertson, Scott Effross, and Chris Martin at the Trade Deadline; this is not a unit I would want to trust down the stretch of the season.
We are +8.21u in our action on Cardinals’ games this year; let’s add to that tonight!
Hump Day card has an MLB Platinum Supreme headlining along with a Rare 6* WNBA Late night Total and the Soccer Game of the week. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Miami Marlins at 6:40 eastern. This is a heavy number to lay. However the Marlins are in a solid long term system that is 13-2 for home favorites in this range off back to back home favored loss scoring less than 3 runs in each. Miami has Alcantara going and he is one of a handful of starters with an Era under 2 this year. Minor for the Reds has been shellacked since coming back and has an Era nearing 7. The Marlins are 7-2 after losing the first 2 of a series and 4-1 at home vs a left hander. Look for the Marlins to take this one. On Hump day we have a Massive MLB Platinum Supreme play and a rare 6* in WNBA Action later tonight. We also have our Soccer Game of the Week. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on ans we get on the Giving end of Hump Day. For the MLB Comp play. Make it Miami. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 13-2
Aug 13, 2005 recap Sat 2005 home Marlins Josh Beckett-R Giants Brett Tomko-R 2-1 1 W -4.5 U 9-4 1-1 1-1 -230.0 7.5 9
Aug 30, 2006 recap Wed 2006 home Twins Boof Bonser-R Royals Luke Hudson-R 3-4 -1 L -3.0 U 6-12 1-0 2-2 -200.0 10.0 9
Jul 01, 2008 recap Tue 2008 home Yankees Joba Chamberlain-R Rangers Kevin Millwood-R 2-3 -1 L -4.0 U 9-9 1-0 0-2 -210.0 9.0 9
Jul 18, 2009 recap Sat 2009 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw-L Astros Mike Hampton-L 5-2 3 W -1.0 U 8-6 1-1 5-0 -210.0 8.0 9
Sep 12, 2010 recap Sun 2010 home Brewers Yovani Gallardo-R Cubs Casey Coleman-R 2-0 2 W -6.5 U 6-5 0-1 2-0 -200.0 8.5 9
Aug 08, 2012 recap Wed 2012 home Dodgers Chad Billingsley-R Rockies Jeff Francis-L 6-4 2 W 2.5 O 9-8 1-2 3-2 -210.0 7.5 9
Aug 11, 2012 recap Sat 2012 home Giants Matt Cain-R Rockies Drew Pomeranz-L 9-3 6 W 5.0 O 13-9 1-0 7-0 -225.0 7.0 9
Jul 30, 2015 recap Thu 2015 home Cardinals Carlos Martinez-R Rockies Christopher Rusin-L 9-8 1 W 10.0 O 14-16 3-0 3-2 -200.0 7.0 9
Mar 31, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Dodgers Kenta Maeda-R Giants Derek Holland-L 5-0 5 W -3.0 U 4-9 0-3 5-0 -200.0 8.0 9
Jul 01, 2018 recap Sun 2018 home Dodgers Ross Stripling-R Rockies Chad Bettis-R 6-4 2 W 1.5 O 11-9 0-1 2-2 -230.0 8.5 9
May 08, 2019 recap Wed 2019 home Guardians Shane Bieber-R White Sox Reynaldo Lopez-R 5-3 2 W -0.5 U 12-9 0-0 2-1 -200.0 8.5 9
Sep 16, 2019 recap Mon 2019 home Diamondbacks Robbie Ray-L Marlins Pablo Lopez-R 7-5 2 W 3.0 O 9-8 1-2 3-2 -205.0 9.0 9
Apr 26, 2021 recap Mon 2021 home Braves Charlie Morton-R Cubs Zach Davies-R 8-7 1 W 6.5 O 10-6 1-0 4-0 -200.0 8.5 9
May 27, 2022 recap Fri 2022 home Padres Sean Manaea-L Pirates Jose Quintana-L 4-3 1 W 0.0 P 7-4 0-1 1-3 -215.0 7.0 9
Jun 01, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Red Sox Garrett Whitlock-R Reds Hunter Greene-R 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 8-7 1-0 6-0 -200.0 8.5 9
Aug 03, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Marlins Sandy Alcantara-R Reds Mike Minor-L -200.0 7.0
Nice 4 unit day in the WNBA last night. Let’s get some more today! Hopefully you all bet on the under for tomorrow’s HOF game – that line has moved down but we gave it out early last week. Also got an MLB parlay that’s NOT a lean, aka it’s an official play, below in red.
Onto the hump!
NFL First Pick of the Season!
HOF Game Under 33 (-105), to win 1 unit Hall of Fame games have averaged 29 ppg since 2012, and now more than ever, teams are trying to avoid injury and avoid showing all their new talent in the preseason. That’s especially true in the Hall of Fame game. It’s more a scrimmage or practice than a game, so I think it’s well worth a shot at the under.
MLB Leans:
Tampa (+114)
Baltimore (+133)
Mets/Nats under 9 (-110)
Parlay: Astros/Yankees ML, 1.5 units to win 2.05 units
The Yankees and Astros both got bested by their competition last night and this is a great redemption spot at home for both teams. Cole is on the mound for NYY against Luis Castillo, who despite his solid numbers this year just isn’t a pitcher we trust. And Urquidy (3.86 ERA) hasn’t been stellar but he’s facing a pitcher in Brayan Bello who’s exclusively got murdered on the mound (8.82 ERA) and comes into this 0-3. With a name like “Brayan,” I guess we should expect as much. Can’t see this NOT hitting but then again, it’s baseball.
WNBA Picks (17-13-1, +3.8 units):
Atlanta Dream ML (-360), to win 1 unit
Atlanta Dream 1H ML (-195), to win 1 unit
Atlanta Dream -8.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Normally I don’t stack big ML plays but in this case, it’s worth the caution. The Atlanta Dream have been stumbling, losing and failing to cover their last 4 contests. Still, the Dream have an outside spot for a playoff bid and this is a fantastic get-right spot for them at home against the association’s worst. Atlanta is one of the best in the WNBA at rebounding, on defense, in 3-point shooting, and in gaining second-chance opportunities. Expect them to regress to the mean and do well in those categories tonight. The Fever are a wretched 5-27 overall and 10-21-1 ATS this year, unsurprisingly. Time for the Dream to gain some confidence and overwhelm a vastly inferior team.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game.
Xander Schauffele winning back-to-back weeks and now Tony Finau!? What else are we going to see this year in the remaining weeks. Finau won the 3M Open in Minnesota and followed that up with another victory in motor city last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Last year at the Wyndham Championship, we saw Kevin Kisnerat 55-1 take home the trophy winning in dramatic style in a six-man playoff. Prior to that, Kisner had lost every playoff he was in (five). Kevin Na, Branden Grace, Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott, and Roger Sloan were the other five players in that playoff.
The Wyndham Champion concludes the FedEx Cup Regular season. Next week, the three-event FedEx Cup Playoffs will begin at TPC Southwind.
Tournament Information:
Dates: August 4th, 2022 – August 7th, 2022
Location: Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
Course: Sedgefield Country Club
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,131 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Champion bermudagrass .120”
Fairways: Bermudagrass .400”
Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 52
Water Hazards: 5 (In-Play 6 Holes)
Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
Purse: $7,300,000/ $1,314,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Field/ Cut: 156 Players| Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Course Scoring Average:
2021: 68.88 (-1.12), Rank 34 of 51
2020: 68.78 (-1.22), Rank 29 of 41
2019: 68.18 (-1.82), Rank 41 of 49
Historic Cut Line:
2021: -3
2020: -3
2019: -4
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Donald Ross (1926)
Renovation: Kris Spence (2007)
Comparable Courses:
Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic
Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge
TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship
Waialae Country Club – Sony Open
The Wyndham Championship was founded in 1938 as the Greater Greensboro Open. In 2007 the title sponsor changed, and the event was renamed to what it’s current called. Along with the name change, the tournament was also moved from autumn to mid-August.
This tournament has been held in the greater Greensboro area throughout its entire history. In the first four years of the event, it was played at both Sedgefield Country Club and Starmount Forest Country Club. Following the most recent renovation, the Wyndham Champion has been exclusively held here at Sedgefield CC.
In 2018, Brandt Snedeker posted a 59 in the first round. This was just the tenth sub-60 round in the history of the PGA Tour.
In 2021, Kevin Kisner won the six-man playoff which tied the PGA Tour record for the largest number of participants in a sudden-death playoff.
72-Hole Record: 258, Henrik Stenson (2017), J.T. Poston (2019)
Sedgefield Country Club is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average. Playing at a Par 70 just over 7,100 yards it’s a short course that forces players to play very positional golf. Off the tee accuracy is more crucial than distance.
In terms of Par 3’s, Sedgefield has four of them ranging from 174 to 235 yards. Last year, holes No. 7 and No. 12 had a scoring average over par. The other two par 3s, No. 3 and No. 16, had a scoring average below par.
There’s twelve Par 4’s at Sedgefield with the majority (eight) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. The two toughest holes are No. 14 and No. 18, which both play over 500 yards. Give the length of these two holes, they also had the highest scoring averages for Par 4s last year.
The two Par 5’s on the course, No. 5 and No. 15, are where players need to take advantage of scoring opportunities. These holes both played under par last year with just eight bogeys being made on No. 5 throughout of the entire tournament.
This course revolves around approach play. It starts with players having a nice drive in the fairway off the tee allowing them to attack the pin on their second shot.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Greens in Regulation %
Driving Accuracy
Birdies or Better Gained
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Sung-Jae Im (+1500), enters the week as the current favorite coming off a T2 finish in the 3M Open. He’s played here at Sedgfield three times with those performances getting worse over time. Im made his debut here in 2019 finishing T6, he would follow that up by finishing T9 in 2020, and T24 last year.
Shane Lowry (+1600), hasn’t played since The Open where he finished T21. He made his debut here in 2016 finishing T42. Since then, he’s played in the Wyndham Championship three additional times where he finished T7-MC-23.
Will Zalatoris (+1600), has been close to a win this season with three runner-up finishes. He’s been in good form as of late finishing T28 (The Open) and T20 (Rocket Mortgage Classic) in his last two starts. Zalatoris has played in this event two times before missing the cut in 2018 and finishing T29 last season.
Previous Winners in the field; Kevin Kisner (’21), Jim Herman (’20), J.T. Poston (’19), Brandt Snedeker (’18), Si Woo Kim (’16), Davis Love III (’92, ’06, ’15), Camilo Villegas (’14), Webb Simpson (’11), and Ryan Moore (’09).
Notable Withdraws: Brandt Snedeker, Francesco Molinari, Jhonattan Vegas
Previous Winners/ Scores:
2021: Kevin Kisner (-15)
Price: 55-1
2020: Jim Herman (-21)
Price: 600-1
2019: J.T. Poston (-22)
Price: 100-1
2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21)
Price: 28-1
2017: Henrik Stenson (-22)
Price: 14-1
Picks (Outrights):
Corey Conners (+2500) – PointsBet
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Si Woo Kim (+2800) – Caesars
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Denny McCarthy (+3500) – BetRivers
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Adam Long (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.97
Picks (Top 20):
Shane Lowry (+100) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
We haven’t seen Shane since The Open Championships at St. Andrews where he finished T21. He’s played a Sedgefield four times before finishing 42-T7-MC-23. In terms of course history, I wouldn’t say that’s overly great. However, he ranks 11th in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Tee to Green which has been the path to success in the past here. Given the strength of the field and how he compares to it, he should be able to finish inside the top-20 this week.
Webb Simpson (+125) – Caesars
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Opposite of Lowry, when you talk about a guy who’s had success in the past here, Webb Simpson is probably at the top of the list. He’s played here thirteen times before, winning in 2011, and finishing inside the top-10 ten other times. In the past five years at Sedgefield CC he has yet to finish worse than T7, which was last year.
Webb also needs to play well this week if he wants to make the playoffs next week as he’s currently 126 in the FedEx Cup standings. In terms of his overall form, he hasn’t been great missing the cut in two of his last three events. However, I’m hoping he can find his form again at a place he absolutely loves. My major concern with him is his putting but he’s lost strokes putting in the past and still had success with his approach play carrying him.
Total Risk on Top-20s: 2.00
Just missed T20 Placements; Sungjae Im (+100), Billy Horschel (+130), Russell Henley (+145)
Picks (Top 40):
Adam Svensson (+105) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Svensson has really seemed to have found his form as of late. He’s only missed one cut since the Wells Fargo Championship, which was two weeks ago at the 3M Open. Svensson rebounded well from that and went on to finish T24 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In his last nine events on Tour, he has finished inside the top-40 six times. He’s only played at Sedgefield CC once before which was back in 2019 when he finished T31.
While he’s not long off the tee by any means, he is very accurate ranking 45th on Tour. As I mentioned before accuracy off the tee is more crucial than distance this week. He’s also a great iron player ranking 38th in SG: Approach. This course sets up nicely for him so I anticipate him finishing inside the top-40 again.
Kevin Steelman (+120) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Kevin Steelman has been in good form recently, making the cut in each of his last four starts in Tour. During that span, he hasn’t finished worse than T49 with his best finish coming at the Barbasol Championship where he was the runner-up. He’s played in the Wyndham Championship seven times before finishing inside the top-40 four of those times. Last year at Sedgefield CC, he finished T7.
He’s accurate off the tee which should help him this week, but the major flaw of his game has been his iron play. Steelman ranks 115th on Tour in SG: Approach but has turned things around gaining strokes in that category in five of his last six starts. His putting can also be an issue, but he’s been trending upward in that category as well gaining strokes on the green in his last two events. Given the way his play has been trending, I like him to snag another top-40 finish this year.
Total Risk on Top-40s: 2.00
Total Risk on the Wyndham Championship: 4.97 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
A 1-2, -0.77u start to the month brings my overall MLB record to 117-110-4, +3.09u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets TT OVER 5.5(+105) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
The Mets have been a steady lineup all year(114 wRC+ vs RHP), but they have taken it to a new level with the bats here recently. Currently on a 7 game win streak, the Mets are averaging over 6 runs/game during this stretch and have done serious damage against arms like Joe Musgrove, Sandy Alcantara, and Pablo Lopez. They expectedly got after Patrick Corbin last night and will get another favorable matchup here tonight.
Nationals SP Cory Abbott is not a major league caliber arm, holding a career 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP entering tonight’s start. Not only has he struggled with the long ball in the bigs, but that seems to be his achilles heel in the minors; he allowed 1.88 HR/9 in Triple-A last year and 1.28 HR/9 in AAA this year. I don’t like how his fly-ball nature is going to play in these conditions. Abbott is not expected to go deep in this game, meaning Davey Martinez will be relying on a tired bullpen that ranks bottom 10 in the league across the board. We’ve made quite a bit of cheddar going against this ‘pen this year, and I certainly don’t mind going against them again tonight.
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
When you see a 1.5 with this price, you assume it’s tagged on a bottom-barrel lineup. While the Phillies have been inconsistent at the plate this year, this is also a group that can do some serious damage. The Phils enter tonight on a 5 game win streak and have scored just under 6 runs/game during this stretch.
Braves SP Spencer Strider is nasty, but I hate this spot for him considering Strider faced this Phillies lineup just last week. As you all know, I’ve loved fading pitchers in this spot all year, and I think that applies even more to tonight. By nature of making just 11 starts at the big league level, this is the first time Strider has had to deal with this dreadful spot; I’m not going to expect him to adjust well tonight. Again, a bloop-and-a-blast gets this one through.
*MLB(1u): Cubs TT UNDER 3.5(-115) @ Cardinals–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has been money at home throughout his career, and that’s even remained true this deep in his career. Wainwright holds a 2.01 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Busch Stadium this year and held a 1.01 WHIP in this role last season.
The Cubs lineup has been subpar vs righties on the road this year(94 wRC+) and is not a unit I want my money on, ESPECIALLY today. Their centerpiece, Wilson Contreras, is likely to be dealt before this afternoon’s deadline, and the Cubs might also move their All Star OF Ian Happ. This is a team that’s looked lifeless at times as of late, so I have no hesitation trusting Wainwright in his main role.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been somewhat boom-or-bust this season, but given Wainwright’s knack for going deep in games, I do feel comfortable trusting their back-end arms. St. Louis also had an off day yesterday, meaning this unit will be fresh entering tonight.
Hey everyone! It’s a solo pod today and yours truly sounds off about the betting effects of the DeShaun Watson trade, why the Cowboys bore me, we give our take on top 10 QB Rankings and give away some freeeee picks! Tune in and subscribe!
Wanna win this NFL (and NBA) seasons? Get FarleyBets’ HUGE Discount here. Below are a few reasons why you miiiiiiiight wanna consider joining this historic team!
Detailed analysis every day– you’ll learn to become a successful handicapper
High-level access– Chris is the Head of Betting at The33rdTeam and an analyst for TheOddsBreakers and BetUS; few are more constant in the industry
Career 57% record in the NBA (490-375, over 130 units won)
2021 Circa Millions 5th place finisher (114k prize, 68% win rate)
