Coming off a 3-0, +3.1u night, I’m rolling with 3 more plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
The Braves have dominated the first two games of this series, but the dynamics here in Game 3 completely favor the Mets. I oftentimes get priced out of backing an arm like Max Scherzer, but this line is not tilted enough in his favor.
Scherzer has been one of (if not the) best pitchers in baseball since 2013, holding a sub-1.00 WHIP in 7 of the last 10 seasons. In addition to his sub-2.00 ERA here in 2022, Scherzer has mowed down the Braves this year. In 2 starts(14 innings), Scherzer has allowed just 1 ER, 7 baserunners, and struck out 20 Atlanta hitters. Aside from Ronald Acuna Jr, the rest of this Braves order has had no answers against Mad Max throughout their careers.
The Mets offense has looked lifeless in this series, but it’s worth noting they faced Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton. Today’s SP, Jake Odorizzi, will not figure into the rotation come October(or sooner) and presents a very attackable matchup for the Mets’ bats. Odorizzi holds a 2.08 WHIP in his 2 starts as a Brave and yielded 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings against the Mets on August 6th. I also worry that Odorizzi’s 0.78 ground ball/fly ball rate is going to bite him down the stretch of this season.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+110) vs Rockies–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery has looked fantastic in his 2 starts as a Cardinal, throwing 11 scoreless innings. I think his heavy ground-ball and soft-contact tendencies will continue to play well at Busch Stadium, and this is another very favorable matchup. The Rockies found marginal success against lefties on the road to start the year, but since June 1st, this lineup holds a measly 77 wRC+ in this role. Fading this offense on the road has been a profitable endeavor for me this season.
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a disastrous 2022 season, bringing a 5.08 ERA and 1.42 WHIP into tonight’s start. While you might think a lot of that failure is due to having to pitch at Coors Field(some of it is), he has not looked all that much better on the road. Specifically, Marquez is striking out just over 6 batters per 9 innings on the road while also walking over 4 per 9 on the road. The Cardinals are averaging just under 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August; since June 1st, they hold a 118 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. As a bonus, 5 projected starters hold a career OPS above 1.000 in their matchups vs Marquez.
The Cardinals’ bullpen might not be a strength, but by nature of the Rockies bullpen ranking 28th in bullpen WHIP, the Cardinals hold a significant advantage in the later innings. We should not be getting plus-money on this.
*MLB(1u): Astros/White Sox F5 UNDER 4(+100)–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Michael Kopech has been phenomenal at home this year(2.81 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). Kopech has particularly stepped up nicely in his tougher home starts, and this matchup might be more favorable than you’d think. While the Astros might be the most complete team in the American League, they bring in a mediocre 103 wRC+ vs righties on the road since June 1st. Judging how they have looked at the plate in this series, I give Kopech the edge on the mound.
Astros SP Framber Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers to back, specifically when he’s on the road(2.21 ERA, 1.03 WHIP away from home this year). Valdez is allowing just 0.44 HR/9 this year due to the fact that he produces 6 times as many ground balls as he does fly balls. While the White Sox have historically matched up well with left-handed pitching, I think you have to put Valdez in his own category of left-hander due to his unique style. Also, with Tim Anderson out and Luis Robert still banged up, this White Sox order is less dangerous in this role than they might otherwise be at full strength.
I made this F5 total 3.5, so I felt comfortable playing this at 4(especially at even odds).
The Cardinals are a large favorite against the Rockies today. While the Rockies are not the worst team in baseball for hitting, they certainly are below average. The problem with the RL here is that Cardinals Pitcher Jordan Montgomery is a little suspect. He came from the Yankees via trade and has a 3.76 FIP, while the Bullpen ranks 19th in the league. Marquez is pitching for the Rockies with a 5.08 ERA and only 7.33 SO per 9 innings. They also have the 6th worst bullpen. I could see the Cardinals scoring over 4.5 runs here but I am not sure if they win 5-2 or 5-4 or any other combination. I am going to take the plus money on the Cardinals TT over 4.5 runs. They are in a tight race with the Brewers and need some bats.
Getting ahead of the game with this one– let’s get out some UFC 278 picks for a huge card this Saturday. Exciting times!
Usman/Edwards- Will it Go the Distance, No (+112), to win 0.56 units
Edwards ML (+300), to win 3 units
Watching their last fight, Edwards had a clear advantage in the stand up game. He was quicker, more agile, and more successful with his little jabs in the first 2 rounds. Usman, on the other hand, owns an unreal gas tank and he easily out-wrestled Edwards in the first showdown. I think that’ll change in this one. That first fight was almost 7 years ago and Edwards is a much different, much more mature fighter. Usman’s knee issues are well-documented and although I still think he should be considered the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC right now, every champ has a moment of forced humility. This feels like the one. Since their last matchup in December 2017, Edwards hasn’t lost a single fight. He’s also faced some of the best fighters in the Welterweight division during that win-span. Edwards is incredibly quick, his takedown defense has dramatically improved, and I think he catches Usman by surprise in the later rounds, which should set up a nice trilogy.
Costa/Rockhold over 1.5 rounds (-135), to win 1.5 units
Paulo Costa is a dangerous fighter but let’s face it, he really hasn’t beaten anyone. Okay he beat Yoel Romero by decision, and Yoel is a freak in more ways than one, but Romero hasn’t had nearly as much success as he should have either. Rockhold is a smart, tough veteran who still thinks he can fight for a title shot. He’s wrong, but it’s doubtful that he’ll just go down after 1 round. Na. I think Rockhold uses his veteran savvy to prolong this fight.
Albazi/Figueiredo- Will it Go the Distance, No (+115)
Albazi is an extremely good wrestler and in short, Figgy won’t have an answer. He’s just not versatile enough. I think Albazi makes another statement and gets an early victory.
Congrats to everyone as we caught another outright in Will Zalatoris at 28-1. With that win, Zalatoris captured his first career PGA Tour victory. He’s been close many times and finally broke through this week in Memphis. It was not an easy victory as he battled it out with Sepp Straka in three playoff holes.
The field is cut to 70 as we move on from the FedEx St. Jude Invitational to the BMW Championship. This year’s event will be hosted at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware. Established in 1902, Wilmington Country Club has never hosted a professional golf event before.
Tournament Information:
Dates: August 18th, 2022 – August 21st, 2022
Location: Wilmington, Delaware, USA
Course: Wilmington Country Club (South)
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,534 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Greens: Tyee bentgrass .100″
Fairways: 007 bentgrass .390″
Rough: Tall fescue/ bluegrass 4″
Bunkers: 91
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 8,100 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
Purse: $15,000,000/ Winners share $2,700,000
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
Field/ Cut: 70 (68) Players| No Cut
Course Scoring Average:
N/A
Historic Cut Line:
N/A
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1959)
Renovation: Andrew Green (2021)
Comparable Courses:
Firestone Country Club – WGC-Bridgestone Inv. (2018 RESULTS)
Congressional – Quicken Loans National (2016 RESULTS)
Muirfield Village – the Memorial Tournament (2022 RESULTS)
Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 78 F, 9 mp/h SE, 64% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
FedEx Cup Playoff Format:
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The FedEx Cup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedEx Cup Champion.
The top 125 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this event, only the top 70 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
To see the current FedEx Cup Standings, you can click the following link.
Course/ Tournament History:
Wilmington Country Club will play host the BMW Championship this week, its first ever professional event this week. However, its amateur history goes back over a century as it hosted the 1913 U.S. Women’s Amateur. Along with hosting several amateur events, the 2013 Palmer Cup was held here. The United States team led by Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, and Patrick Rodgers dominated the European team, 20.5-9.5.
In 1966, Wilmington Country Club hosted two exhibition matches. The first was between Carol Mann and Gary Player. Just two months later, Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus squared off against each other.
The host venue features two courses, a North, and a South course. The North course was designed by Dick Wilson. It’s the shorter of two courses playing just over 6,300 yards. The South course, which will be featured this week, was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. I’ll touch on it later but, this week’s layout is not the typical course layout. The front and back nine are intertwined to create this unique layout.
The BMW Championship was awarded to Wilmington Country Club in November 2020. Unfortunately after that, a tornado touched down near the course and downed over 300 trees on the course. Along with the cleanup, the course underwent a major renovation. Every bunker on the course was adjusted, seven new championship tees were added, and the rough was changed to tall fescue from intermediate rough.
Introduced in 2007, the BMW Championship is the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event. It was held at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club until 2011, except for Bellerive Country Club playing host in 2008. From 2011 to 2017, the event was hosted at three different courses including Crooked Stick Golf Club (’12,’16), Conway Farms Golf Club (’13,’15,’17), and Cherry Hill Country Club (’14). After that, the event has been held at a different course each year.
72-Hole Record: 261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)
Wilmington Country Club designed by Robert Trent Jones, Sr. is a Par 71 that plays 7,534 yards. It features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The South Course is a classic tree-lined, parklands layout with significant elevation changes on several holes. Last week’s accuracy was more important than distance off the tee, however this week, it reverses. Also, the greens are almost double in size from TPC Southwind. As with most Robert Trent Jones courses, there isn’t much strategy involved. At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, players had to plot their way around the course but this week is much different. As long as the players can hit it long and find a few fairways, they should have success.
The four Par 3’s range between 170 yards and 234 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.
No. 13 is the shortest Par 3 on the course playing 170 yards. Despite the short yardage, this hole isn’t easy by any means. Players will face a shot to a green that slopes significantly from back right to front left. Water protects the green along the right side while a pair of bunkers are in play on the left.
No. 15 is the longest of Par 3’s playing a little over 230 yards. This tee shot is extremely demanding with a pond coming into play on the front right side. As if that wasn’t enough, bunkers guard the left side of the putting surface. The green itself is divided into three sections; front right, left, and back so depending on the approach shot players can face a difficult putt.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 6 is the shortest listed at 391 with the longest being No. 9, just short of 500 yards.
No. 17 is one of the only Par 4’s on the course where players will lay up taking the fairway bunkers out of play. They’ll face a short approach shot into one of the more difficult greens on the South course. Depending on the pin location, it will be very tough to land one close to the hole.
No. 18 is a dogleg left with a demanding tee shot as three fairway bunkers guard the left side of the fairway. Players will face an uphill approach shot onto a false front green.
The three Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 12, and No. 14. Two of the Par 5’s play over 630 yards making Par 5 efficiency 600-650 yards a stat to check out this week.
No. 3 is the lone Par 5 on the front and the shortest of the three playing 582 yards. It’s a dog-leg right that can be shortened depending on the line players take off the tee. Players will face an uphill approach for their second shot onto an elevated green. Bunkers surround the green in the front so most will try and use the upslope on the back of the green to stop their approach shot.
No. 12 is only one of two holes on the South course that don’t feature fairway bunkers. Players will aim for the left center of the fairway as the landing area slopes from left to right. Depending on their distance off the tee, players will have a decision to make. If they want to take an aggressive approach, they can try to carry the pond in front of the putting surface. Or, players can lay up in front of the pond and hit an easy wedge into the sloped green. This green’s difficult as the front slopes towards the water and is surrounded by bunkers.
No. 14 is the longest of Par 5’s listed just under 650 yards but plays shorter. The longer hitters off the tee are at a particular advantage on this hole as they can catch the speed slope in the middle of the fairway. For the shorter hitters, a fairway bunker comes into play when laying up just 60 yards short of the green. The hole locations this week will most likely be positioned on the left and right wings bringing into play additional bunkers.
In terms of course difficulty this week, it’s relatively unknown. Last year we saw Patrick Cantlay finish 27 under in easy scoring conditions at Caves Valley. However, the year before, Jon Rahm finished 4 under at Olympia Fields. Based on everything I’m seeing, I think the winner comes in around 17-20 under but again, that could be way off. While the course is long on paper, most of the length comes from the Par 3’s and 5’s.
Featured Holes: 12, 13, 14, 17, 18
HOLE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
PAR
4
3
5
4
4
4
3
4
4
35
YARDAGE
437
206
582
413
495
391
205
490
496
3,715
HOLE
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
IN
PAR
4
4
5
3
5
3
4
4
4
36
YARDAGE
444
430
634
170
649
234
393
419
446
3,819
This week, the course routing will be different from its traditional layout.
Tournament Hole
Traditional South Course Hole
1
10
2
13
3
14
4
15
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
1
11
2
12
3
13
4
14
16
15
17
16
11
17
12
18
18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Driving Distance
Proximity 150-175 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 yards
3-Putt Avoidance
Comparable Course History
The Field/ Odds:
We have 68 players in the field out of the possible 70 that have qualified for the second event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
In terms of odds, pre-tournament long-shots haven’t had much success in this event outside Keegan Bradley (140-1) in 2018 at Aronimink Golf Club. The last three winners have all had odds of 25-1 or shorter.
Rory McIlroy (+1000), is the odds-on favorite to win the BMW Championship this week. He last won this event in 2012 when it was hosted at Wentworth Club in Surrey, England. Rory’s played in eleven BMW Championships with five top 10 finishes during that span including his victory in 2012. In last week’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational he struggled missing the cut. Before that, he had finished inside the top 20 in his last eight starts on Tour.
Jon Rahm (+1200), is coming off a T5 finish at TPC Sawgrass. By no means has Rahm had a great year, winning only once (Mexico Open). Despite his lack of wins, Rahm has seven top 10’s in 17 starts and has only missed a cut once during that span (Fortinet Championship). He won the BMW Championship in 2020 at Olympia Fields Country Club. In his career, he’s played in this event five times with four top 10 finishes.
Patrick Cantlay (+1400), won the BMW Championship last year at Caves Valley Country Club. He’s played in five BMW Championships in his career finishing T9/T55/2/T12/1. Last week he finished T57 shooting over par in the final two rounds. Before that, he had finished T14 or better in his previous six starts.
Tony Finau (+1400), has been the hottest golfer on Tour as of late. He won the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic in back-to-back weeks and followed it up with a T5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s played in the BMW Championship seven times before with four top 10 finishes. Last year at Caves Valley Country Club he finished T15.
Justin Thomas (+1600), won the BMW Championship back in 2019 at Medinah Country Club. He’s played in this event seven times before finishing T13/T32/T47/T12/1/T25/T22. JT’s lone win on Tour this season was at the PGA Championship. Last week at TPC Southwind he finished T13.
Previous Winners in the field (BMW Championship); Patrick Cantlay (’21), Jon Rahm (’20), Justin Thomas (’19), Keegan Bradley (’18), Marc Leishman (’17), Billy Horschel (’14), Rory McIlroy (’12)
Notable Withdraws: Cameron Smith (Hip Injury), Tommy Fleetwood (Personal)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners/ Scores (BMW Championship):
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
Price: 25-1
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Price: 10-1
2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
Price: 16-1
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) – Aronimink Golf Club
Price: 140-1
2017: Marc Leishman (-23) – Conway Farms Golf Club
Price: 45-1
Picks (Outrights):
Justin Thomas (+1600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Justin Thomas is coming off a strong Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude Championship shooting 4-under. He finished T13 in last weeks event after struggling over seas in the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship. His lone win this season was at the PGA Championship. In 2019, Justin Thomas won the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.
This course sets up well for Justin Thomas given his ability off the tee and ball-striking. As always, the main issue for JT is his play on the green. He’s currently 104th in SG: Putting and lost strokes last week. If he can putt this week at Wilmington CC he should do very well. The last three events where he’s gained strokes on the green he’s finished 3/1/T5.
Will Zalatoris (+1600) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
We’ve seen it this year twice so far of players winning back-to-back weeks so who’s to say Will Zalatoris won’t do the same this week? While his odds aren’t what they were last week, I am still willing to back him this week.
Coming into last week he was trending towards a win based off his strokes gained and previous three finishes. He’s long off the tee and ranks inside the top 11 in every strokes gained category besides one, putting. We saw how emotional he was just making that par putt on 18 to eventually force a playoff. He finally shattered that narrative around his inability to make a big putt. In the past two tournaments, he’s gained strokes on the green and I believe he uses that newfound confidence to propel himself to another victory this week.
Max Homa (+5500) – Bet365
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Max Homa has two wins on Tour this season including the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship. Following that victory at Quail Hollow, he’s only missed one cut in his last eight events.
Last week at TPC Southwind, he finished T42 with three sub-70 rounds. He gained strokes in every category besides approach. His iron play is usually one of the best parts of his game but he hasn’t been great as of late losing strokes in that category in his last four events. Despite that, he’s been excelling in every other area of his game so I’m hoping he can figure out his irons this week. If he can do that, he has everything needed to win this week.
Just missed Outrights: Jon Rahm (+1400 – DK), Tony Finau (+1600 – Pointsbet), Sam Burns (+2500 – DK)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.15 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Cameron Young (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Cam Young is another guy that fits the course profile for Wilmington Country Club. Last week he finished T31 at TPC Southwind despite the course not suiting his game. He’s been in good form as of late finishing T2 at the Rocket Mortgage classic and 2nd at The Open Championship. With Will Zalatoris capturing the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, Cam Young has now won the most money on Tour this season without recording a win.
The distance at Wilmington CC shouldn’t affect Cam Young at all as he ranks 4th in Driving Distance. He ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green. His iron play is inconsistent ranking 78th in SG: Approach and 75th in SG: Around the Green. In his last three events, he’s gained strokes on approach and has gained strokes around the green in two of his last three starts.
Joaquin Niemann (+135) – Pointsbet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units
Joaquin Niemann won his second PGA Tour event this year at The Genesis Invitational. Since then he’s only finished inside the top 10 in one other event, the Memorial Tournament. As of late, he’s been playing some better golf finishing T16/T53/T13 in his last three tournaments.
Niemann’s distance off the tee should provide him with a slight advantage over the field this week. He ranks 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 23rd in SG: Approach. The main issue for Niemann is his putting where he ranks 113th in strokes gained. His putting performance directly correlates with his finishing position. In the last five events that he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T25. If he can figure out the flat stick this week, he should be able to finish inside the top 20.
Cameron Davis (+175) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Following the John Deere Classic where he finished T8, Cam Davis hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his last four events. At TPC Southwind last week he finished T13, gaining strokes in every category.
Wilmington Country Club should suit him well this week especially given his distance off the tee. He ranks well in nearly every key category this week with his short game and putting is the only outliers. However, he’s gained strokes around the green in each of his last three starts on Tour. In terms of putting, he did gain strokes last week and barely lost strokes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 3M Open. Even when he did lose strokes on the green, he still managed to finish T14 and T16.
Taylor Pendrith (+220) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Last week we saw Taylor Pendrith struggle at TPC Southwind finishing 68th. To be fair, that course did not suit him at all. Before that, he was in good form finishing T13/T13/T11/T2/T13 in his last five starts. This is the first time that he’s made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so he’s never played in this event before.
Off the tee, he’s one of the longest players ranking 11th in Driving Distance and 12th in strokes gained. On the long par 5’s, he can take a more aggressive line limiting his approach shots. However, the issue for Taylor Pendrith is once he gets off the tee. The good news is that he’s gained strokes on approach in two of his last three events and around the green in four of his last six. If he can putt even moderately well, he should do well at Wilmington Country Club.
If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like to risk 2.00 Units on T20 Placements and 2.00 Units on T40 Placements. However, the odds for T40 Placements this week are awful, so I’ll be allocating those units to T20 Placements.
Total Risk on The BMW Championship: 5.15 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
PICK: Ian Happ CHC Over 1.5 Total Bases +118
1 star
Happ is hot at the plate.
Happ is;
Hitting .379 last 7 games with a .793 slg
Hitting .304 in August
Batting .333 vs LHP
3 for 8, double and a HR vs Corbin in his career, 1.319 slg
Corbin 9.73 ERA last 7 starts
Opponents batting .331 vs Corbin
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Coming off a 1-1 start to the week, I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cubs/Nationals OVER 8.5(-115)–6:05 PM CT
I am definitely fading each of these pitchers/bullpens more than I am backing each of these offenses, but with that said, this number shouldn’t be below 9.
Nationals SP Patrick Corbin has been laughably bad for 3 years running now and is one of the easiest “auto-fades” in baseball. Corbin holds an ERA north of 7.00 and a WHIP at 1.82; in 23 starts, Corbin has allowed over 13 hits per 9 innings. The Cubs are no juggernaut offensively, but they have plenty of righty power bats that match up nicely with the deadbeat Corbin.
Cubs SP Justin Steele has found success at Wrigley Field this year, but it’s been a completely different story on the road(4.71 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Not only that, but now Steele faces the tall task of facing this Nats lineup for the second time in the span of a week. This Nationals lineup surprisingly holds a respectable 96 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park since June 1st, and I think they’re more than capable to take advantage of this advantageous spot.
The Nationals hold a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball, while the Cubs will likely join them by year’s end after trading away all their valuable relievers at the Deadline.
*MLB(1u): Twins -1.5(+110) vs Royals–6:40 PM CT
Twins SP Sonny Gray has steady numbers on the year(3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and is set up for a nice bounce back start tonight. The Dodgers roughed up Gray last week(they’re roughing up everybody right now), but now Gray gets to face a Royals lineup that holds just a 91 wRC+ vs righties on the road since June 1st. Gray threw 6 innings of 1 run ball and allowed just 2 baserunners in his lone start against the Royals earlier this year, and I think we see a similar line tonight.
Royals SP Zack Greinke has pitched great at home but has been an unmitigated disaster on the road. In 9 road starts this year, Greinke hols a 7.16 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and is allowing 2.3 HR/9. Do you really think the 38-year old veteran is at a point in his career where he’s going to rework himself and make the proper adjustments? In any case, this is a tough matchup facing a Twins offense that holds a 116 wRC+ vs righties in their home park since June 1st. This lineup tagged Greinke for 5 runs in Minnesota earlier this season; don’t be surprised if we see a repeat tonight.
By nature of the Royals having (by far) the worst bullpen in baseball, the Twins will hold a pretty massive edge in the later innings. We should not be getting plus-money on this.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Rockies–6:45 PM CT
Since June 1st, the Cardinals hold a 139 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. They faced Rockies SP Kyle Freeland in Colorado last week(and tagged him for 6 ER), making this tough wrap-around spot for Freeland. While Freeland has fared better on the road this year, he’s still allowing well over 1 hit per inning and almost 30% of balls hit 95+ mph. The Red Birds are averaging 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August, and I’m expecting them to tag Freeland once again tonight in a role they’ve excelled in all year.
As an added bonus, the Rockies rank 28th in bullpen WHIP and is a unit I love going against.
On Tuesday Rob is releasing his 2022 MLB Game of the Year rated at 7 units. MLB Is ranked #1 or top 3 on several major networks. This plays is backed with a 26-1 System that has a 100% Indicator and wins by an average 4 runs per gamer since 2004. Tuesday Tennis Comp play below.
The Afternoon Tennis total is on the OVER 20 Games in the Trevsian vs Kalinskaya match at 12:30 eastern in the Western and Southern Open. Our predictive model sees this as a possible 3 set Affair here. Kalinskaya won the only meeting between the two 6-2 and 6-4. However,This one should be closer today as both have been playing longer matches on the hard courts. Play the Over 20 games here today. On Tuesday Rob has his 2022 Highest Rated MLB Game Of The Year Headlining. Jump on at goldencontender@aol.com or on teitter/facebook. For the Tennis Comp play. Go Over 20 total games in the Trevsian vs Kalinskaya match. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
If you didn’t see it on Twitter you’re seeing it now — we’re 11-2 in MLB Leans the last week, lol. That figures. We stop betting on baseball and then we hit a stride. Ah well. Gonna keep on making them “leans” because that’s what’s working and I don’t want that smoke again, but how annoying is that shit?
Anyway, onto today’s leans, added more thoughts/picks in WNBA, and we have some CFL Picks in for this week, too!
Today’s MLB Leans:
Padres/Marlins under 7.5 (-115)
Cubs/Nats under 8.5 (-115)
Astros (-128)
WNBA Picks (29-10-1, +9.62 units):
Sky -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Sky haven’t been stellar but it’s time for them to turn up the heat and when they do, at home, there’s little chance that the Liberty can keep up. The Liberty fought hard to get here but, let’s be honest, they got a little luck, a lot of Sabrina, and probably some fortunate regression from their opponents. Now that we’re in the postseason, the Sky are on a newfound revenge tour to reign as champions once again. I expect the best out of Chicago in Game 1 and I think they win n big fashion.
Mercury/Aces over 167.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (-121), to win 1 unit
I think -14 is a bit too high, but the Aces have been pedal to the medal on offense, scoring with pace and never letting off the gas. They’ve also allowed plenty of their opponents to chase all game. Love the over here. Normally we don’t play on 1st/2nd half scoring bets but in this case it seems appropriate. Especially against subpar teams, the Aces can start slow in these situations. Then, predictably, they light it up in the second half. Five out of their last six games have seen the Aces score significantly more points in the 2nd half, so we’ll go with a small bet on the 3rd and 4th eclipsing the 1st and 2nd total.
Wings +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a pure numbers play — 10 just feels too big for a formidable Wings team that can play defense. The Sun own a prolific offense but this is the playoffs. Taking the dog.
CFL Week 11 Picks (17-11, +5.95 units):
BC Lions/Saskatchewan Roughriders over 51.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Lions are averaging 39 ppg over their last 3 contests and I see no reason to fade them in this spot. I also don’t see any reason to not love the total. Again, this is an example of pondering regression. Will BC ever slow down and will we see a lower scoring game? Maybe. But that was the story last time these two teams faced. The Roughriders only put up 17 points, amounting to their 2nd lowest scoring output all season. At home in a revenge game, I expect SSK to come out more aggressive. They have a formidable run game and unfortunately, a mediocre defense that won’t be able to stop BC unless BC stops themselves. This has another over-feel and the ancillary reasons add up.
Calgary Stampeders ML (-130), to win 2 units
At 4-4 the Toronto Argonauts sit atop the East Conference and normally that would mean something– in this game it does not. The West is clearly the more dominant half of Canadian Football and the Stampeders are now reeling, again, after another disappointing loss to the Lions last week. BC just keeps pouring it on teams and until their rhythm breaks it won’t be surprising watching them win and win. That’s not the case for Toronto. Toronto doesn’t possess the ball and they rank either mid-tier or bottom-tier in nearly every category that counts on offense and defense. Calgary is still a top 3 team from our perspective, they do a lot of things right, and luck should regress to their side in this contest. Calgary doesn’t get penalized often, they protect their QB, and they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball. Get it done, Stampeders!
We’re 7-2 (+5 units) in our last nine WNBA picks and now it’s playoff time baby!! I really enjoy capping the postseason because you know that motivation is going to be at an all-time high for all teams each and every night. Games begin again tomorrow with the Liberty vs. Sky and Mercury vs. Aces. Let’s see where we can find some value…
ALSO, a little shameless plug… I am launching a new podcast called All Bets Are On with Kate Constable. The first episode will debut tomorrow, so be on the lookout for that on Twitter. I’ll go over each first-round series in more depth and hopefully provide some helpful info, entertainment and maybe a free pick or two! I would love it if you would check it out and welcome any feedback.
Aces TT O91, 1 unit*
(so far I’ve seen this number at BetUS, but I expect to see this same number once it becomes available at all other books. I would play it up to 92.)
The Mercury earned their way into the 8th seed in the playoffs with help from the Liberty beating the Dream and the Lynx losing their final two games to the Storm and Sun. Unfortunately for Phoenix, they now must face the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces. And let me tell you, the Mercury aren’t going to be much of a problem for Becky Hammon’s squad. Vegas swept Phoenix 3-0 during the regular season, and I expect another sweep from the Aces and a swift exit for the Mercury.
This game opened at Aces -12.5 and has jumped up to -14, so I’m not sure there’s much value left in that number. Plus, that’s a pretty hefty spread. While Vegas has covered that number in two of their three meetings with Phoenix this year, I feel more comfortable taking a different angle, which is why we’re going to play Vegas’ team total over 91.
The final scores in those three contests were: 106-88, 86-74, 100-80. All Vegas starters scored in double-digits in two of the three matchups, with A’ja Wilson being the only starter not to reach that mark in their final meeting of the regular season. I think it’s safe to expect a big game out of the MVP frontrunner on Wednesday. The Aces’ offense has also been very effective in those games, shooting 58%, 46% and 47% respectively against Phoenix.
The Aces have also been very efficient on offense as of late, averaging 96 points over their last four games, all of which were wins. Those games were also against the Storm (twice), Sky and Dream, all of which are top-5 teams in defensive rating this season. The Mercury will be without Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith on Wednesday and while Phoenix actually plays better defensively without Taurasi, I still don’t think they’re going to be much of a match for the Aces’ high-powered offense.
Plus, without Taurasi and Diggins-Smith leading the Mercury’s offense, I think Vegas will be able to disrupt their flow and gameplan on that end of the floor and will be able to force turnovers that lead to fast break opportunities. Not to mention Vegas owns the overall turnover battle in their previous three meetings with Phoenix. This one has Vegas written all over it. It’s going to be a tough, quick series for the Mercury.
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
We have a great show for you today! Our very own Michael Fordham comes on to break down some college football! First, Kiev talks some preseason NFL football where he went 4-1 last week. Next, Michael comes on and the guys get into some season win total plasy as well as some college football week 0 plays that they had already made. Then, D-Nasty comes on to break down some positions in fantasy football. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
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