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WNBA Free Pick – August 2

By
Kate Constable
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Our WNBA record sits at 3-4 heading into a full slate of games on Tuesday.

Aces/Mystics Under 165.5, 1 unit*

Tonight’s matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Washington Mystics features the top-ranked offense in the league going up against the top-ranked defense. This is the third and final meeting between the two teams with the Mystics owning the 2-0 series lead. Washington’s defense has given nearly every team in the league trouble this year, including the Aces, and we expect more of the same tonight. The total for their previous two games closed at 167.5 and 167 respectively, so the books have adjusted ever so slightly with today’s total sitting just two points below.

The Mystics have played at the second slowest pace in the league over their last five games and own the best defensive rating over that same period. Washington’s last two wins over Vegas were due in large part to their ability to dictate the pace of the game. That allowed their defense to take over and stifle the Aces high-powered offense, something not many teams have been able to do. Having beat the Aces twice already, the Mystics have all the confidence in the world heading into this game. They held Vegas to its lowest scoring output all season in their first meeting and only allowed the Aces to put up 86 points in their second game, which included overtime. If Washington can set the pace and impose their will on the defensive end for a third time, this game has the making of a slow-paced defensive battle.

Liberty 1H -2.5 (DraftKings) or -3 elsewhere, 1 unit*

The LA Sparks come into this matchup with three straight losses and seem to be completely lost on the court. Their last two games have been without starting center Liz Cambage after she quit the team and they’ve looked awful in both those games, losing to Phoenix and Minnesota. After their game against Minnesota on Sunday, the Sparks boarded at 9:50 p.m. PST flight from LA and didn’t land in New York until 6:30 a.m. ET on Monday morning. LA is going to come into this one with tired legs which means their offense will likely be slow to get going. Opponents have jumped on the Sparks early in their previous two matchups and I expect the Liberty to do the same tonight.

New York comes into this game with some momentum after a double-digit win over Phoenix on Sunday. Offensively, Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard are playing some of their best basketball over the last five games as the Liberty look to make a final push for the playoffs. They’re a game back from the Sparks who own the eighth and final playoff spot as of right now.

Tonight’s game is the first of a back-to-back with the Sparks, so I could see LA mailing this one in after a tough travel situation and focusing on getting the win tomorrow and leaving New York with a split. They also have a tough road ahead with this being the first of a four-game road trip for LA. The Liberty are also debuting a pretty sweet new court design tonight thanks to their partnership with X-Box. I expect New York to come out ready to go from the start and jump on the Sparks early. Take the Liberty to cover in the first half.

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

Rob V: Tuesday MLB + N.L. CENTRAL GAME OF THE YEAR INFO

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Tuesday card led by the 100% N.L. CENTRAL GAME OF THE YEAR from a NEVER lost system. We also have another TOP WNBA Totals System and a TOP Tennis Play. MLB Comp play below

The Comp Play for Tuesday is on the Under in the Toronto at Tampa Game at 7:10 eastern. Look for a tight game as 9 of 10 here have stayed under and the game fits a Sold totals system for home dogs that scored 3 or less in a -150 or higher home favored loss vs an opponent off a home favored win. Gausman has a 2.34 road Era and has allowed 3 runs in 9 innings this year vs Tampa. Rasmussen has a 2.09 Home Era and was solid going 5 allowing 1 here vs the Jays in an earlier start.. The Jays have stayed under in 5 straight and 4 of 5 vs a team that allowed 5 or more runs. Look for this game to stay Under. On Tuesday the N.L. CENTRAL Division GAME OF THE YEAR Headlines along with another POWERFUL WNBA Play and a TOP Level Tennis move. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or or on Twitter/Facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Go with the Jays and Rays Under. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Premiums, 8.2

By
Chris R. Farley
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Added a WNBA Pick and some MLB picks today because they make too much sense. I’ll cherry pick here and there, but  they’re just leans officially.
MLB Leans:
Astros ML or -1.5 
The Astros aren’t going to lose again, at home, with Javier on the mound.
Orioles/Rangers over 8.5 (-120)
Spencer Howard usually means runs will be a-plenty, the Orioles’ bats continue to look ablaze, and Jordan Lyles is Baltimore’s more vulnerable pitcher.
WNBA Picks (14-13-1, -0.20 units)
Liberty -3.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units and
LA Sparks/NY Liberty over 161 or 162 (-115), to win 1.5 units 
You can still find both of these lines at many books but grab them now, they’re on the move. Sabrina Ionescu has been sensational for the Liberty, stimulating their offense with 16 assists in their last contest. New York has covered six of its last 9 games at home and they’re in a nice rhythm offensively. Something’s wrong in LA with the Sparks, maybe it’s still the Cambage-effect, and neither team has anything great to speak of defensively. The Liberty are one of the best ball movement teams in the association and their 3-point efficiency should be too much for the Sparks at home. Like the Liberty, like the over.
Mystics +3 (-110), to win 1 unit
Thinking this one over more, but here’s the thing: The Aces have been coasting lately, and good for them, but the Washington Mystics are NOT afraid of this team. They’re 2-0 against them this year, both in games where they rallied in the 2nd half, and their defense has been stellar lately. Idk, kind of want to take the ML on the home dog. Instead we’ll just take the home dog with the points. Like we said, the Mystics have been sensational lately, beating good teams with superior play on both sides of the floor. The Aces have been coasting – eventually that needs to change.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game.
Big ol’ Future Bet (fuck it, but also I love this)
Astros to win the World Series +
Bills to win the Super Bowl +
Bucks to win the 2022/23 NBA Championship
1 unit to 307 units

Podcast 46 – 22 – NFL 2022 Preseason Handicapping & Coaching Records – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to kick off August to bring back two shows per week throughout the rest of the year!   First, Kiev talks about some of the great benefits that one gets for becoming a member.  Next, Kiev gets into preseason football.  Which coaches are motivated to win and which coaches are not?  What are some of the things we look for when capping a preseason NFL football game?   Which current coaches have the best and worst preseason records?  Finally, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for the hall of fame game coming up this Thursday!  Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.  Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Early WNBA and CFL Picks and a BIG FUTURES

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi All! Getting some WNBA and CFL plays out early. Got a super future I really like, too.

WNBA Picks (14-13-1, -0.20 units)
Liberty -3.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units and
LA Sparks/NY Liberty over 161 or 162 (-115), to win 1.5 units 
You can still find both of these lines at many books but grab them now, they’re on the move. Sabrina Ionescu has been sensational for the Liberty, stimulating their offense with 16 assists in their last contest. New York has covered six of its last 9 games at home and they’re in a nice rhythm offensively. Something’s wrong in LA with the Sparks, maybe it’s still the Cambage-effect, and neither team has anything great to speak of defensively. The Liberty are one of the best ball movement teams in the association and their 3-point efficiency should be too much for the Sparks at home. Like the Liberty, like the over.
Lean Mystics +3.5 and under 165
Thinking this one over more, but here’s the thing: The Aces have been coasting lately, and good for them, but the Washington Mystics are NOT afraid of this team. They’re 2-0 against them this year, both in games where they rallied in the 2nd half, and their defense has been stellar lately. Idk, kinda want to take the ML on the home dog. Talk me out of it? TBD.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game.
Big ol’ Future Bet (fuck it, but also I love this)
Astros to win the World Series +
Bills to win the Super Bowl +
Bucks to win the 2022/23 NBA Championship
1 unit to 307 units

2022 ACC Preseason Predictions(1 Future + 2 Season Win Totals)

By
Michael Fordham
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The turn of the calendar to August means College Football is back! I enjoyed a +27.35u season in 2021 and hit at a 55% clip overall, including an 8-0 finish to the season.

My 3 preseason bets in the ACC:

*CFB(0.3u): NC State to win ACC(+830)

*CFB(0.75u): Virginia UNDER 7.5 wins(-130)

*CFB(0.5u): Florida State OVER 6.5 wins(-130)

Below, I break down each of these plays as well as my feel of the rest of the ACC entering this 2022 season.

 

MLB Free Play 8/1

By
Dan Everett
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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (+200) @ 7:05 PM ET

This is a matchup between one of the best pitchers in the NL (Max Scherzer) versus one of the worst pitchers in the NL (Patrick Corbin). As much as I would love to play the Mets here on the RL (-2.5 FG, -1.5 F5), the numbers are just too inflated and don’t hold much value in my opinion. I can’t trust the Mets offense even against a pitcher like Corbin.

What I can trust is that Max Scherzer is going to come out and dominate in this game. In 7 road starts this year Max is averaging 6.19 innings pitched, 1.43 runs against, 4.71 hits against, 8.71 Ks, and 0.85 walks. He’s struck out 7 or more in 6 of 7 of those road starts. The only one he didn’t eclipse that mark was when he only struck out 6 in his first start of the year against these Nationals.

While the Nationals on the year aren’t prone to a ton of strikeouts, only averaging 7 per game, they also haven’t faced a ton of top tier pitching. The lineup from yesterday’s game should be pretty similar for tonight’s game. In that game Pallante shut them out over 8 innings and struck out 8. Pallante is no Scherzer.

This is my most confident play on the card tonight, and may be the only play period.

Take Max Scherzer O6.5 Ks -140 for 2U

August 1st MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A new month is upon us! I bring in a 116-108-4, +3.86u record into August and will certainly look to add to that over the next 31 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+120) vs Red Sox–7:10 PM CT

These are two teams moving in opposite directions. The Astros have further established their dominance in the AL West over the past week(won 6 of 7 vs Mariners), while the Red Sox are on the heels of a brutal 8-19 July.

Astros SP Luis Garcia is a very trustworthy arm in his home ballpark. He held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Minute Maid Park last season, and he sees his WHIP at 1.11 this year. The one struggle for Garcia this year has been allowing the long ball, but the Red Sox are not as imposing as people think. In addition to having key bats like Rafael Devers and Trevor Story on the IL, the Red Sox have posted a measly 97 wRC+ on the road vs righties this year.

Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi was the starter on the night the Sox allowed 28 runs to the Blue Jays, but his recent struggles only account for the part of the reason I’ll be against him tonight. This Astros order is extremely familiar with Eovaldi; this projected starting lineup is a combined for 22-for-54 vs Eovaldi, with 7 projected starters holding an OPS at or above 1.000. Combine that with the fact that Eovaldi has historically struggled on the road throughout his time in Boston, and I think the slump continues for him tonight.

The Astros hold a sizable advantage in the later innings with one of the best bullpens in baseball at their disposal. Closer Ryan Pressly won’t be available tonight, but this is a deep bullpen with a plethora of righties that should match up well with the Sox. The Red Sox’s ‘pen, on the other hand, has seen their overall bullpen WHIP climb above 1.30 and is yet another unit that is down multiple key pieces.

*MLB(1u): Padres -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT

I’ve wanted to back Padres SP Mike Clevinger for awhile now, and I couldn’t think of a better spot to do so. Clevinger holds a 1.12 WHIP on the season and now has the luxury of facing one of the worst road offenses in the league. Not only do the Rockies hold an atrocious 71 wRC+ vs righties on the road, but they enter this game in poor current form after dropping 4 of 6 on their recent home stand. 

Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is an easy guy to fade considering his 1.74 WHIP and 13.5 H/9. While Senzatela has managed to stay afloat pitching at Coors Field, he has totally crumbled on the road. He holds a 6.57 ERA and 1.78 WHIP away from home this year and held a 1.52 WHIP in this role last year. The Padres’ offense has been incredibly mediocre this season, but I’m hopeful they’ll start to swing the bats better down the stretch of the season. They scored 17 runs in their weekend set vs the Twins and are more than equipped to take advantage tonight.

The Padres hold a massive bullpen edge, bordering the line of having a top 10 ‘pen in the league. Meanwhile, the Rockies bullpen holds bottom 5 numbers across the board.

*MLB(0.77u): Guardians -1.5(+130) vs Diamondbacks–6:10 PM CT

Guardians SP Cal Quantrill might not be the most imposing arm out there, but his home numbers speak for themselves. He held a 2.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in Cleveland last year and has backed it up with a 1.11 WHIP at home this season. This is an extremely manageable matchup facing an Arizona lineup that ranks just 23rd in wRC+ vs righties on the road this year. In addition, the DBacks scored just 4 runs in Atlanta this weekend and looked lifeless at the plate all weekend.

Diamondbacks SP Zach Davies is in a tough spot making his first start in over a month after an IL stint. He only resumed mound work a week ago and elected not to go on a rehab assignment. I worry about how that carries over into tonight. Davies has had moderate success this year, but am I really afraid to go against an arm that delivered a 5.78 ERA and 1.60 WHIP a season ago? The Guardians are in sneakily good current form, winning 4 of their last 6(all on the road) and scoring 5 runs/game during that stretch.

The Guardians hold a massive bullpen edge and will have every key arm available tonight. To be quite honest, most teams will have the bullpen advantage when they square off against Arizona; the DBacks border around being a bottom 5 bullpen in the league.

No Premiums Today

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Officially no premiums today and no WNBA lines are out yet. Here are a few leans of mine in MLB, but… yea, it’s MLB.

Talk to you all tomorrow! Mucho more NFL content incoming, too!
MLB Leans:
  • Mets by 100 (the Corbin factor)
  • Orioles (+139)
  • Giants (+117)

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 4/9 – AFC West

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

AFC West

2021 Records

Kansas City 12-5/ Las Vegas 10-7/ LA Chargers 9-8/ Denver 7-10

Kansas City – The Chiefs have arrived at the realization that they will have to build through the draft now that Patrick Mahomes contract has kicked in at full dollars. They traded Tyreek Hill for a boat load of draft picks to try and rebuild a defense that lost a ton through free agency. Mahomes is still elite although he did have the worst season of his career in 2021. The Offensive Line is still solid for him, so I expect him to bounce back even with MVS being the primary replacement for Hill. Their front seven on defense actually may be slightly improved this year, but the secondary loses 3 out of 4 starters. The Chiefs spent 5 of their 10 draft picks on secondary help hoping to find NFL talent through sheer numbers. People are saying the Chiefs are going to lose control of the division this year. I am not one of those people. I have them winning a tie-breaker with LA by virtue of a better division record. As a Packers fan I have watched Aaron Rodgers keep them in contention year after year with high roster turnover. Granted he can’t win the big games anymore. Good Luck in the Playoffs Chiefs fans. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -130.

Los Angeles Chargers – The Bolts were an overtime tie away from making the playoffs in 2021, but the Raiders played to win in week 17 at the end of the game, and knocked them out. Justin Herbert took the first step in proving he is an elite NFL QB, and I think he only gets better in 2022. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are back and provide one of the top 1-2 punches at reciever in the NFL. Austin Ekeler is an elite 3 down back, and the offensive line is solid. The offense wasn’t the problem in 2022 as they scored the 5th most points in the NFL. The problem was the defense as they only finished with a +15 Point differential. They brought in JC Jackson to be their #1 Corner, and the big splash is Khalil Mack. If he has anything left in the tank pairing him up with Joey Bosa should provide this defense with a huge lift especially in passing situations. They also replaced a very week interior on the DL. This defense should be much improved in 2022. Vegas Win Projection 10 Juiced Over at -150

Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas made the playoffs and gave the AFC champs Cincinnati a solid game and have improved their team in the off-season. Adding Davonte Adams on as a target for Derek Carr is one of the biggest moves this off-season. Darren Waller should be back healthy which along with Hunter Renfrow gives the Raiders 3 legit guys who will create huge match-up problems for opposing defenses. I really like the addition of Chandler Jones on defense to pair up with Maxx Crosby as edge rushers. They need to create pressure as the secondary is at best average, and with the opposing gunslingers in this division they won’t hold up in the back end for long. My biggest question is Josh McDaniels, who spent 10 years back as an assistant after his first head coaching gig. Is he truly an offensive guru or did Brady just make him look good? I lean toward the Brady answer to that question, and I think Rich Bisaccia got a lot out of this team after the Gruden debacle. Vegas Win Projection 8.5 Juiced Over at -135

Denver Broncos – The Broncos won 7 games in 2021 thanks to an “elite” defense that allowed the third fewest point in the NFL. Add Russell Wilson and it looks like Denver could be a contender. That being said they played a very easy schedule, let go defensive guru Vic Fangio as coach, and gutted some of the defense. Even before the off season, the underlying defensive metrics were not great. They were brutal on third down, middle of the pack in EPA, and in takeaways and sacks, and couldn’t get off the field when they needed to stop the run when trailing late in games. Without Fangio’s magic I think this defense takes a big step backwards. On offense Wilson has some talent with Jerry Jeudy leading the way along with Cortland Sutton who looks to get back on track year 2 following his ACL injury. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should benefit from Wilson the most on this team as defenses wont be able to load up against the run. I’m also not crazy about Hackett as head coach. Much like McDaniels, his previous QB makes him look really good. Vegas Win Projection 10 Even Juice at -110.

2022 Projections

Kansas City 11-6

Los Angeles 11-6

Las Vegas 10-7

Denver 9-8

AFC West Action:

I think this is the best division in football this year top to bottom, which is what I thought about the NFC West last year and look how that turned out.

Kansas City – No Action. Variable Schedule this year is Buffalo, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay which means if they lose all 3 of those games this is likely a 9 or 10 win team.

Los Angeles – The head honcho here Kiev made a great call on LA in his preview, and I am riding it here. The Chargers have Jac, Hou, Sea, Cle, and Atl in the first 8 weeks. If they aren’t 6-2 by that point they will be a big disappointment. Play the Over 10 for 1 Unit and hedge back later to try and middle.

Las Vegas – Raiders are better than last year. Play the over 8.5 for 1.5 Units.

Denver- No Action, but lean under. I’m taking a wait and see approach. I’ve been burned by Russ before.

Also Taking a .5 Unit shot on Raiders to win division at +550.

 

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