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Rob Vinciletti: Saturday College Football

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Saturday CFB Card loaded with 100% Non Conference Game of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Side, the top Unsurpassed Totals Play and a Platinum Supreme going early. We also have MLB September specific Systems and Soccer. CFB Comp Play below.
The CFB Comp play is on Liberty plus 6 at 6:00 eastern. The line is up here with Kadin Salter the backup going and he played well last week in a 4 OT Win. Liberty fits the powerful system below which has cashed 19 of 21 long term for dogs in thus range in the first 4 weeks of the season. Liberty will be tough here as they have covered the last 6 on the road and 5 straight vs winning teams. UAB is a good team but has failed to cover 9 of 10 off a win of 20 or more. Look for Liberty to get the cover. On Saturday a Huge card is up and we have our Non Conference Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, The Unsurpassed TOP level Totals play 2-0 already, an early Platinum Supreme, MLB and Soccer. CFB Already ranked #1 on leader boards for thus year. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we continue to cash out. For the College free play. Take the 6+ points with Liberty. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU:11-10-
ATS:19-2-0
Final
Team25.5
Opp23.8
Sep 07, 2002Saturday32002MIAOIOWAhome24-295.5-50.5LW
Sep 05, 2003Friday32003FRESORSThome16-148.5210.5WW
Sep 06, 2003Saturday32003WAKENCSThome38-247.51421.5WW
Sep 08, 2007Saturday22007WAKENEBhome0-310-107-70-017-208.050.0-35.0-13.0-4.0-9.0LWU0
Sep 06, 2008Saturday22008ECARWVAhome7-010-37-00-024-37.548.02128.5-21.03.8-24.8WWU0
Sep 12, 2009Saturday22009OHSTUSChome7-73-35-00-815-186.545.5-33.5-12.5-4.5-8.0LWU0
Sep 18, 2009Friday32009FRESBOIShome0-1017-1410-107-1734-518.054.0-17-9.031.011.020.0LLO0
Sep 11, 2010Saturday22010UCLASTANhome0-100-30-150-70-356.052.5-35-29.0-17.5-23.25.8LLU0
Sep 18, 2010Saturday32010TEMCONhome0-37-37-1016-030-165.548.01419.5-2.08.8-10.8WWU0
Sep 10, 2011Saturday22011ARMYSDSUhome7-147-00-66-320-239.053.0-36.0-10.0-2.0-8.0LWU0
Sep 17, 2011Saturday32011ARMYNORWhome7-00-77-07-721-146.054.5713.0-19.5-3.2-16.2WWU0
Sep 07, 2012Friday22012UTSTUTAHhome13-00-30-107-727-207.052.5714.0-5.54.2-9.8WWU1
Sep 07, 2013Saturday22013BYUTEXhome10-717-713-70-040-217.057.01926.04.015.0-11.0WWO0
Sep 14, 2013Saturday32013ECARVTCHhome7-70-03-60-210-157.546.5-52.5-21.5-9.5-12.0LWU0
Sep 14, 2013Saturday32013OHUMRSHhome7-710-37-710-1434-317.068.5310.0-3.53.2-6.8WWU0
Sep 04, 2014Thursday22014UTSAARZhome7-109-100-67-023-267.555.0-34.5-6.0-0.8-5.2LWU0
Sep 13, 2014Saturday32014SCARGEOhome14-1010-37-77-1538-356.059.539.013.511.22.2WWO0
Sep 17, 2015Thursday32015LOUCLEMhome0-03-77-107-317-205.554.0-32.5-17.0-7.2-9.8LWU0
Sep 15, 2018Saturday32018PURMIZhome7-1317-143-1010-337-406.067.0-33.010.06.53.5LWO0
Sep 14, 2019Saturday32019WVANCSThome14-77-1410-613-044-276.549.01723.522.022.8-0.8WWO0
Sep 11, 2021Saturday22021BYUUTAHhome3-013-77-03-1026-177.050.5916.0-7.54.2-11.8WWU0
Sep 10, 2022 Saturday 2 2022 LIB UAB home 6.5 50

College Football Saturday Free Play – Aubie Is The Answer

By
Shawn Knoche
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Free Saturday Play for Week 2 in College Football features the San Jose State Spartans vs the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

This is the second tune-up game for the Tigers before Penn State rolls in and the gauntlet that is the SEC West begins. They handled Mercer last weekend 42-16. San Jose State makes its third trip to the Plains in the last decade and will roll in after beating Portland State 21-17 securing the win in the final two minutes.

The Spartans really struggled against Portland State and should have lost that game. They had major issues in the trenches against Portland State who has a lineup that does feature a slew of FBS transfers. They had Portland State defenders in the backfield when on offense all night. On the defensive side of the ball they didn’t record a sack and only had a few negative plays created. They were out-gained 395-288, but were able to survive thanks to a goal line stand and two key interceptions.

Auburn controlled the game vs Mercer while two QBs Robby Ashford and TJ Finley battled for the starting gig. Tank Bigsby ran for 147 yards and 2 Touchdowns, and Jarquez Hunter found the end-zone three times. The defense dominated until the rain delay in the third quarter holding Mercer to under 100 yards up to that point. They called the dogs off for most of the second half and played vanilla defense.

In this match-up the key will be the Auburn defense vs Chevan Cordeiro who is a solid QB for the Spartans. He has great escapeability. He’s gonna need it as he was running for his life against Portland State and now he has to face what is likely a Top 3 SEC front seven? Good luck. They only managed 49 yards rushing vs Portland State and now they have to face what is likely a Top 3 SEC front seven? Good luck. I think SJSU is going to get lucky to score in this game unless its garbage time. Let’s say they get a turnover and punch it in maybe they get to 7.

When Auburn has the ball they will face a stiffer test running it as SJSU has two Defensive ends that could play on Sundays in Cade Hall and Viliami Fehoko. That being said, they should still dominate at the point of attack and will find some success with big plays running the ball. Finley threw 2 picks against Mercer after a solid beginning and he will likely get first crack at it on Saturday. I think Finley will improve after getting the first game jitters out and Ashford won’t play quite as much as they will look to get the passing game locked in before Penn State. Bigsby and the OL will dominate again and Auburn should score easily if not quickly when they have the ball.

Take Auburn -23.5. for 2 Units. I also Lean Under.

NFL Week 1 Sharp Line Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 9/7/22
Sharp money on:

  • The Dolphins hosting the Patriots -2.5 to -3.5 65% tickets and 70% of the money.  Value is gone and movement is slowing coming back.
  • Jaguars at Commanders +4 to +2.5 – 62% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Texans hosting the Colts +8 to +7 – 46% tickets and 87% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Buccaneers vs Cowboys under 52 to 50 – 65% of the tickets and 96% of the money.

September 9th MLB Play

By
Michael Fordham
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I’ve released by Best Bets and other official plays for the Week 2 CFB slate. However, I’ve quietly enjoyed a nice 3-1 week in MLB and have locked in 1 official play on this Friday slate. I am likely to add a couple of more official CFB plays at some point today; join my Telegram group to receive a text if I do so.

*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-130) vs Nationals–6:05 PM CT

Nationals SP Patrick Corbin has been an easy fade all season, and his numbers worsen considerably on the road(7.95 ERA, 1.93 WHIP). This Phillies lineup has pounded him in their two prior meetings, amassing an incredible 15 runs off of Corbin in just 4 innings this year. The Phillies’ lineup can be a bit inconsistent, but since July 1st, they do hold a pretty steady 117 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. The addition of Bryce Harper off of the IL boosts this lineup’s potential considerably. Corbin’s struggles are not anything new; he has been one of the worst qualifying SP’s in baseball for 3 years now. When you combine that with the Phillies’ track record against him, we should not be getting 2.5 at this reasonable of a price. 

College Football Week 2 Sharp Line Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 9/7/22
Sharp money on:

  • Northwestern hosting Duke -7.5 to -10 – 45% tickets and 80% of the money.
  • East Carolina hosting Old Dominion -11 to -13 – 40% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • UAB at Liberty -4 to -6 – 76% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Stanford hosting USC +11.5 to +8.5 – 14% Tickets and 43% of the money.
  • Mississippi State -8 to -10.5 – 53% tickets and 72% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Southern Miss vs Miami under 57 to 51.5 – 28% tickets and 67% of the money.
  • UNC vs Georgia State under 68 to 64.5 – 31% tickets and 52% of the money.
  • Tennessee vs Pittsburgh over 64 to 67 – 61% tickets and 82% of the money.
  • Colorado vs Air Force over 45 to 49 – 75% tickets and 88% of the money.
  • Syracuse vs UCONN under 54 to 49 – 47% tickets and 95% of the money.

Premiums, 9.9 and more CFB

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Another winning night in Tennis, and we win our first NFL bet! Let’s see if I can get through this email without any damn typos. Added more CFB picks (in red), we have one US Open play for today, and it’s likely I will send out the final (final final) NFL picks list today. Gotta put a bow on it eventually. Football baby! Let’s goooo!

U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (14-7, +5.83 units):
Alcarez/Tiafoe over 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both of these surging studs are at the top of their game and while Tiafoe made quick work of his last opponent, he’ll do no such thing today. Alcarez is 19 years old and many experts’ pick to be the next tennis phenom. Tiafoe is feelin’ himself as a U.S. competitor attempting to make his ascension in the U.S. open and that momentum has made a difference. Big serves and entertaining vollies are coming – I think this goes at least 4 sets and that’s probably all they need to go over.
CFB Week 2 Picks (8-7-1, -0.35 units):
Arkansas State/Ohio State over 68 (-110), to win 1 unit
The total doesn’t match the spread (-44) on the Buckeyes, who are bound to explode, at home, after a pedestrian showing on offense against the Irish. Notre Dame has a very formidable defense though (and we knew that, despite being doubted constantly) — can’t say the same thing about Arkansas State. I think Ohio State annihilates their opponent Saturday; they might score 68 themselves.
North Carolina -7 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The only thing that scares me away from this line is that it probably should be more. I know Georgia State isn’t the worst team in the Sun Belt but NC is being graded like a schlep after a near loss to a very formidable App State team when the Mountaineers play at home. I don’t think the Panthers can keep up with the Tar Heels offense.
App State/Texas A&M over 54 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Texas A&M’s defense showed up last week but why the hell wouldn’t they against Sam Houston St. Appalachian State is hungry to keep that offensive momentum going after nearly beating UNC at home last weekend and although an SEC defense may be too much to handle for most possessions, I think App State can get close to 20 points in this. That will create a game narrative where the Aggies play less conservative than they did last week and continue to score against an App State defense that, after last weekend, we know should not be feared.
Tennessee/Pitt under 65.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is too inflated and I expect it to fall. The strength of both of these programs is their defense and although both had higher scoring outputs in Week 1, their opponent will present different problems in this matchup. Regression to the norm and a potentially sloppy day in Pittsburgh add on to our liking the under here.
Parlay Iowa ML and under 40, 1 unit to win 2 units*
* Correlated parlays count towards ATS records, just FYI
Can’t believe in the Iowa State Cyclones after they lost so much talent on offense, going up against their in-state rival who’s owned them the last 5 years, and oh yea– the Hawkeyes might have a better defense than ever. Sloppy as always I’m sure, I think Iowa pulls it out late in another close, defensive battle.
Florida International -13.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
FIU’s offense looks great and Texas State embarrassingly got blown out by one of the worst teams in CFB according to most sharps (Nevada) last Saturday. I don’t think Texas State can keep up — these lower market games are exposable so why not take advantage?
San Jose State/Auburn under 50 (-110), to win 1 unit
Auburn may have the best defense in the SEC this year – please hold, too early to call – but there’s a shot. San Jose State struggled against Portland State in Week 1… When team total props come out we’ll probably bet on SJS under, but for now we’ll take the full game total under. SJS may not score a point.
USC -8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I know it’s on the road at Stanford, a “rivalry,” sure, but I believe in the new-look Trojans and think they could be a powerhouse in the near future again. This line opened at -11, which was too much obviously, and quickly corrected down to 8 before moving back to 8.5. Pure numbers play for me as I have USC winning by 10. I think Stanford could potentially get exposed in this contest, and it’s too early for them to be overly motivated for it. All Trojans for this guy.
UFC 279 Picks (12-12, +11.88 units):
Chimaev in Round 2 (+330), to win 1.65 units
Chimaev in Round 3 (+700), to win 3.5 units
Chimaev might take it easy at first — Nate Diaz is still dangerous and he’s an absolute dawg, even if he’s not in his prime anymore. But Chimaev is very likely to end this early. Dude has that weird, psycho-killer mentality, like he’s literally not normal, and Dana White and others aren’t just hyping him up when they claim he might be one of the best the UFC has ever seen when it’s all said and done. Looking for value –  we like this approach.
Li/Ferguson over 2.5 rounds (-105), to win 1 unit
Ferguson is one of the most durable UFC fighters of all time and he’ll be even more on guard after he got knocked out in his last brawl. Li is talented and should win by points, but I still believe Ferguson has one more win in ’em. I like the value of this wager better.
Johnny Walker wins (+175), to win 1.75 units
Johnny Walker wins within distance (+335), to win 1.675 units
Johnny Walker losing to Jamahal Hill is not something to be ashamed of. Hill is primed to contend for a Light Heavyweight championship and he’s tearing through the division. Ion Cutelaba is not in the same class as Hill and Johnny Walker must be primed and ready for a better performance. Walker is a freak, explosive athlete who can be a bit out of control at times, but no more than Cutelaba. Ion is infamous for his antics, in the octagon and out, and he’ll be out-sized and significantly out-reached in this fight. Walker takes the win and I think there’s a decent chance he does it before the final bell. I’m unimpressed by Ion.

DFS: The Oddsbreakers Conquers NFL Week 1

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.

I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 13-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.

Lamar Jackson, QB: $7,300. Jackson didn’t play in the Pre-season but I don’t expect him to come out rusty. There is something to be said for motivation when playing for a contract. I think Jackson has a big year and it starts vs the Jets. NYJ had the worst YPG allowed in 2021 and while they improved in some places adding Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson in the first round this year, the unit still leaves a lot to be desired. The Jets allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2021 and Mark Andrews should be Lamar’s prime target.

Derrick Henry, RB: $8,600. Not sure if you’ve heard or not, but Derrick Henry is healthy. He only played 8 games in 2021, but he found the end-zone 3 times in a game in 3 of those contests. The opponent for the Titans on Sunday is the Giants who gave up 129 YPG on the ground last year. I expect the Titans to be in control late and Henry to close this one out earning plenty of points along the way.

Dameon Pierce, RB: $4,800. I know what you are saying. Knoche, I thought you said High-Floor guys here? Well I did, but I still need to fit into the salary cap and with spending up for Jackson and Henry I have to find some value here and at Flex and WR2. Typically when I build lineups I find my top 2 selections and my DEF and then work backwards from there. Lovie said Pierce is starting and for me that is good enough at this price to get him in lineups. I actually think he will be in a very high percentage of lineups Sunday. Now its possible the Colts run away with this game early, but I don’t think so. Week 1 Divisional Home Dogs are 19-4 ATS going back to 2009. The spread may be 7, but I think the Texans keep it close enough to get Pierce 15+ touches and maybe he can find the end-zone. Rex Burkhead will steal some touches on passing downs.

Skyy Moore, WR: $3,800. Moore will slot into Mecole Hardman’s role in the Chiefs high-powered attack and is a huge value at this price. Hardman averaged over 5 targets a game last year. While Mecole only found the end-zone twice look for Skyy who I think is far more talented to land there often. He will be the KC deep threat as that is where he was targeted in the Pre-season and it’s possible he pushes Hardman for some of Tyreek Hill’s snaps as well.

Jarvis Landry, WR: $5,000. With Michael Thomas coming back Landry will likely be Jameis #2 option. Thomas is however still recovering from his hamstring issue and I expect Landry to get plenty of targets. With Thomas drawing the top coverage options and schemes look for Jameis to view Landry like Crab Legs at a Publix.

Marquise Brown, WR: $6,200. Hollywood Brown should be the top option for Kyler Murray and the Cards should be chasing points against Kansas City. The Chiefs secondary lost 3 starters from last year and while I like Trent McDuffie, I don’t think this unit is as strong as 2021 and they weren’t great then. I like him to find pay-dirt in this one.

Mark Andrews, TE: $6,800. I mentioned him earlier, and I was actually surprised all the top TE options were as cheap as they are. Look for him to be targeted early, often and in the Red Zone. In the 12 games Jackson played last year Andrews had double digit targets in 5 of them. My only fear here is if the Ravens get up big in the first half they may slow things down in the second half.

Olamide Zaccheaus, Flex: $4,000. Well I don’t think highly of Olamide, but with Calvin Ridley out for the year and Drake London questionable he should get plenty of looks. Mariota played sparingly in the pre-season but I did like the ways the Falcons schemed him. He’s still better than Geno Smith and he has to throw it to someone besides Kyle Pitts.

Tennessee, DST: $3,500. Think of this as a stack with Derrick Henry. The Giants were 31st on offense in YPG in 2021. DO they get Sequon Barkley back? Yes. Will he be the answer to getting the rushing game going? Yes. Will it be week 1 against the Titans? No. Mike Vrabel goes all out to stop the run and Sunday will be no different. The Giants were also 26th in Turnover Margin per game and I like that with Daniel Jones likely to have to throw the ball late in this one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TNF – Player Prop of the Night

By
Kurt B
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Los Angels Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald (99) and Michael Brockers (90) leads the team onto the field before the start of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Monday, October 26, 2020 in Inglewood, Calif. The Rams defeated the Bears 24-10. (John Cordes/AP Images for Panini)

THE NFL IS BACK!

Like most of you, I am incredibly excited to watch some meaningful NFL games. 

Tonight’s match-up is a great way to kick off the NFL season, a match-up that could be considered a potential Super Bowl Preview! We get the Super Bowl LVII favorites in the Buffalo Bills traveling to Los Angeles to face the Super Bowl champion Rams. 

Allen Robinson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-125 DraftKings)

The Bills’ only weakness is in the secondary, especially early this season. Their All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White is recovering from an ACL tear and will now have to rely on rookie Kaiir Elam and second-year man Dane Jackson. Last Season Jackson had a defensive grade of 58.1 by PFF, which was ranked 82nd in the NFL.

With that being said, the Bills have two of the best safeties in the league. Jordan Poyer (#12) and Micah Hyde (#5) both rank in the top 15 in defensive grades among safeties per PFF. I expect one of them will be helping with double-coverage on Cooper Kupp most of the game, leaving Robinson one-on-one.

With the total set at 52.5 points, I assume we will see some offensive fireworks.

CFB Free Picks – Week 2

By
Kate Constable
-

My favorite time of the year has arrived – football season! And with that, I’ve decided to expand my arsenal from WNBA/NBA to include college football. I know I’m a week behind, but going forward I’ll be posting college football picks each week. I’m super excited to see what type of success this season brings and hope you join me! 

Boise State -17, 1 unit*

Boise State looked awful in Week 1 against Oregon State, but I’m going to throw that game out the window. They were atrocious in nearly every aspect of the game, yet I don’t think that’s a fair reflection of who this team really is. I don’t know what happened with the Broncos last weekend, but that’s not the team we’re going to see moving forward. 

There is a reason that the Broncos have the second-best odds to win the Mountain West Mountain division and we’re going to see that on Friday. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier – if he gets the start – isn’t going to throw three interceptions in the first quarter again. That took Boise State out of the game before it even got started and created a hole that was too big for them to climb out of. And if head coach Andy Avalos decides to start Taylen Green, I have confidence in the redshirt freshman based on what we saw from him in the later part of that game. 

Although 17 is a big number, this still feels like a bit of a buy-low spot for Bosie State. The Broncos have a solid defensive front and an overall unit that ranked second in the conference to start the season. Not to mention New Mexico only has two starters returning to its offensive line. Now, the Lobos did beat Maine 41-0 last week, but let’s be real… It’s Maine. 

Boise State has manhandled New Mexico in the past, winning each of the previous three meetings by 31 points. They’re coming off a terrible loss, so I expect them not only to be hyper-focused on this matchup but also pissed off and ready to show the college football world what type of a team they really are. I could see the Broncos winning by 20+ so I’ll happily lay -17. 

Duke +10, 1 unit*

Is Northwestern’s offense really as good as it showed in Week 0 against Nebraska? I don’t think so. That win from Northwestern was more of a result of Nebraska’s defense – and Scott Frost’s poor decision-making – than it was NU’s offense proving to be high-powered. This line feels like a bit of an overreaction from their win in Dublin. Plus it feels like it could be a bit of a letdown spot for the Cats, coming back home to play a non-conference opponent. Don’t get me wrong, I still think NU wins this game but I don’t think they cover -10.

Duke looked solid offensively against Temple, winning 30-0. Their defense held the Owls to just 172 total yards and Blue Devils QB Riley Leonard was nearly perfect while also leading the team in rushing with 64 yards. I take all of that with a grain of salt though, because after all, they did play Temple. Still, I saw some bright spots from the Dukies and I’m not sure I’m fully onboard the Northwestern train yet. Take the points with Duke. 

Kentucky +6, 1 unit*

Hold up. Wasn’t Florida a 2-point underdog last week against Utah? Now you’re telling me that one win, in which it took an endzone interception in the final seconds for the Gators to win, and all of a sudden they’re six points better than a Kentucky team that’s ranked 20th. I don’t buy it. 

Anthony Richardson showed that he’s quite the stud, but Kentucky is going to try and take away his ability to make plays with his feet which is a lot of what led Florida to success in Week 1. The Wildcats’ linebackers are solid and that’s going to force Richardson to have to throw the ball more. On the flip side, Will Levis is an NFL prospect QB that’s going to look to take advantage of Florida’s secondary after they showed some trouble against the Utes. Kentucky hasn’t won in the Swamp in a longggg time, but they’ll at least give themselves a chance to pull out the upset by keeping this game close. 

Stay tuned for Week 3 plays next week! In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

Week 2 CFB Plays(Part 2/2)

By
Michael Fordham
-

I released my Week 2 Best Bets yesterday but have added 2 more plays since. I wouldn’t be surprised if I add a play or two more closer to Saturday, so be sure to join my Telegram group to receive a text when I release any and all plays!

2021 CFB: 106-88-1, +27.35u

2022 CFB: 5-6, -0.82u

*CFB(1u): Wisconsin 1H -9.5 vs Washington State–Sat 9/10; 2:30 PM CT

*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State -11 vs Arizona State–Sat 9/10; 6:30 PM CT

Mike Gundy has had every style of offense under the sun during his time at Oklahoma State. While many link him to more of an aggressive, pass-first style of attack(think of 2011 Brandon Weedon and/or 2017 Mason Rudolph), he opted for a run-heavy attack last year due to how elite his defense was. If Game 1 was any indication, Gundy is back to his more aggressive ways with a 4th year starting QB in Spencer Sanders. I know Sanders has had his ups-and-downs in Stillwater, but I believe he is poised for a breakout year. In the opener, he threw the ball 41 times for 406 yards, 4 TD’s, and 0 picks. Sanders is also a massive threat as a runner, and he ran for 57 yards and 2 scores in the Opener. This Arizona State defense is vulnerable given that they lack much of a pass rush and can be had in their depleted secondary. I expect Oklahoma State to win up front and give Sanders time to do his thing. We’ve seen plenty of QB’s like Sanders who played mediocre for most of their career and then finally put it together in their senior year; Kenny Pickett from just last year fit that same bill.

Arizona State is, quite frankly, a dead beat program. This is a team that lost 17 players to the portal this offseason and had 6 coaches resign after the NCAA announced it would crack down on the program for recruiting violations. Herm Edwards added Florida’s Emory Jones to run the offense; in and of itself, I don’t think that’s a bad move. However, much like last year, Jones has little to work with at the WR position. Jones is another dual-threat guy, but it’s hard to see him fixing his turnover issues with his stable of WR’s and a spotty OL. Arizona State does have a pretty good run game, but I think that plays into Oklahoma State’s strength which is undoubtedly the Front 7. I was encouraged at how they stopped the run vs CMU after losing a lot at that position off last year’s team. A lot was made of Oklahoma State allowing 44 points in Week 1, but half of those points came in the 4Q with Oklahoma State playing 2nd-3rd team DB’s. Oklahoma State is going to be able to hold up against the run, get pressure on Jones and force him into mistakes.

My read on Arizona State coming into the year is that they wouldn’t step up in competition particularly well. With the hits they took this offseason, I have a hard time seeing them hang with superior teams for 4 quarters. Ultimately, Mike Gundy’s shift back to an aggressive offense and Oklahoma State’s edge in the trenches will get me on them officially.

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