The Sunday MLB Comp Play is on the Under 1.5 walks for Seattle starter George Kirby at 2:10 eastern today. Kitby has outstanding control and has just 10 walks on the year and has allowed no more than 1 in any of his 13 starts. We look for him to do well here in the finale against Houston and while we lean towards a Seattle win here. The play is under 1.5 walks for Kirby. Rob Vinciletti-
July 31st MLB Plays
I bring in a record of 115-107-4, +4.36u into this Sunday slate and will be rolling with 2 plays to cap off the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Astros F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) vs Mariners–1:10 PM CT
Mariners SP George Kirby is a talented young arm with a seemingly bright future, but he is not ready for this moment. Kirby threw just 117 innings in the minor leagues before being called up, and even though he has made 5 road starts, 3 of those came against bottom-feeder teams. We saw him yield 5 ER in Boston early this year as well as 3 R in 4 innings against the Mets at Citi Field. This is a “rivalry” game of sorts that I don’t see Kirby acclimating well to with his lack of experience.
The Astros have really asserted their dominance over the Mariners here over the past week, winning 5 of their 6 meetings. They have averaged just under 6 runs/game in those matchups and hold the 2nd best wRC+ in the league vs righties in their home ballpark. I think this offense makes another statement in today’s game.
*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 5.5(+100) vs Royals–12:35 PM CT
Zack Greinke is rightfully a name that carries a lot of respect, but I’m not scared to play against him in this matchup. The 38-year old version of Greinke has stepped up horribly in his tougher road starts; he allowed 4 R in Toronto, 6 ER in Houston, 5 ER in Minnesota, and 5 ER in Colorado. Striking out merely 5 batters per 9 innings, I don’t like how Greinke’s recent fly ball trends play in a park like Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees haven’t been too profitable here in the month of July, but they seem to be entering one of their hot stretches after taking the first 3 games of this series. They scored 11 runs on Friday and 8 runs yesterday; overall, I love trusting a lineup that can get contributions from 1-to-9 in their order.
As a kicker, the Royals hold the worst bullpen numbers in baseball by a fairly wide margin. We saw the KC pen yield 8 runs in the 8th inning of Friday’s game and a run in each in the 6th and 7th inning yesterday.
MLB Free Plays 7/31
Advanced stats haven’t meant a ton this season, especially lately. So let’s look at some of the situational spots and see if we can find some value.
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-225) 1:40 pm ET
This is a pretty straight forward game. The Guardians are starting opener Brian Shaw, where as the Rays are sending out their ace and AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan. Cleveland has the 9th best pen in the majors so far this year, but it hasn’t turned into wins for them.
McClanahan is 3-1 on the F5 run line in July. He’s getting pretty good run support as well over the past 4 starts as the Rays are giving him 2.75 runs on average in the first 5 innings.
The Guardians should send out a similar lineup as yesterday’s losing effort. Corey Kluber got through the first 5 innings only giving up 1 run. The Rays gave him 5 runs of support during that time frame as well. I expect a similar game here out of McClanahan in his second start after the All Star break. In his first start out he limited Baltimore to 2 runs in the first 5 innings and ended up going 7.
The Guardians have also struggled on the season against lefties.
Take the Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 -145 1U
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-185) 7:08 pm ET
The Chicago Cubs are sending out Adrian Sampson in tonight’s game. The Giants are countering with Carlos Rodon.
Most of Sampson’s starts have come at home. In his two road starts this year against St Louis and Milwaukee he gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings. In his past two starts against the Mets and Pirates he’s only given up 2 runs in each of those games. I think he can repeat that effort here against a Giants offense that has been pretty meek this year. The Giants are also without Joc Pederson who provided most of their power this season.
Carlos Rodon has been much better at home (2.05 ERA) than on the road (3.88 ERA). He has struggled in his last 2 starts agains the Dodgers and Diamondbacks giving up 5 runs in each of those games. However, those starts were both on the road. His last home start against Milwaukee was a good one. He went 5 innings giving up 1 run on 8 hits. I expect him to bounce back here in this spot.
I expect this game to play like the first game in the series where Stroman started for the Cubs and Cobb went for the Giants. That game saw 1 run in the first 5 innings.
Expect a low scoring affair here and Take F5 U4 -120 1U
Premiums, 7.31
Well I picked one hell of a weekend to give away free picks! Our Saturday wasn’t completely frustrating, but good God we’re getting some weird results. The Wings did exactly what we thought they would, shooting nearly 50% from the field, and we lost the TT by 0.5 points.
UFC started off strong, but the ref called the Derrick Lewis fight too early. Nothing was flukey about Moreno winning, but Nunes had Pena dead-to-rights more than once halfway through the main event and she didn’t capitalize.
Sunday is for football but we’re still a good 6 weeks away from that. God help us; let’s stay in the black today shall we?
WNBA Picks (13-11-1, +0.45 units):
Sky/Sun under 164.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This total has fallen a bit and we agree with the movement. Thankfully it’s not too late to get involved. Dropping one point from the opening line, this one has under written all over it. Their last contest was an aberration – the Sky shot 60% from the field in that game and accordingly, the total went way over.
Fever +17.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Well here I go again. The smallest unit size possible but again, the Aces could care less about their opponent and this game today. They’re on their way to the postseason, probably as a #1 seed, and they can sleepwalk through this one. An inflated line is one to grab, especially after the Aces actually tried in the first contest and predictably clobbered Indiana. We’ll bet on a respectable performance from a pro team at home.
Mystics -2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Seattle Storm confuse me in more ways than one, so typically I don’t like to bet on their games. But the Mystics maintain the best defense in the WNBA, leading all season in defensive rating, and the Storm were lucky to win that last contest. Seattle didn’t do much right but they got to the line 21 times and made 18 of their FTs. Well done; I don’t see a repeat performance like that in DC against a feisty Mystics squad. I’ll take DC to cover.
CFL Picks (8-9, -1.55 units):
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
Women’s Euro Final:
1st half under 0.5 goals (+150), to win 0.75 units
The tension of a Euro Cup final tends to bring the most stingy defensive effort since neither team can afford to go down early against two of the most skilled offenses in the world. The Germans are on a roll, high in confidence, so if you want to hedge this by going for Germany over 0.5 goals in the 1H (+145) or even over 1.5 goals (+750), I get it. We’ll go with a slow start.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
Free MLB Play 7/30
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Going back to the well today with the Yankees, but in a different way. The Yankees have gotten off to slow starts lately against inferior opponents and have even lost. I can’t trust them, even with the epic comeback last night.
I’m going to isolate Nestor Cortes here. He has been lights out at home allowing just 10 runs in 8 starts. He holds a 1.90 home ERA, Opp BA of .168, Opp OBP .239, Opp SLG .269 and wOBA .231. He’s also striking out 28.8% of hitters, allowing .223 BABIP with a 2.72 FIP and 3.46 xFIP. He’s been getting a little bit lucky considering the difference in the FIP and xFIP, but I think the home dominance continues here against a poor Kansas City team. His hard hit contact rate is also down at home, and has been way down to start the second half.
While these advanced metrics haven’t meant much in a lot of plays recently, I think this one holds more weight as Cortes has proved all year, and with his recent starts, he’s one of the best in the American League.
For some additional analysis, if you want to consider the game last night, Cole has been up and down all year. That showed in his start last night. He was cruising until the 5th inning where he gave up 5 runs. He got the first 2 outs and then gave up 4 singles and a home run before finally getting the third out. I don’t think we see that out of Cortes here. I think he’ll be able to contain this lineup.
Last time out at Kansas City, Cortes gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings back in April. That was when the Royals had some more pop in their lineup as well. Granted it was the beginning of the season, but the Royals haven’t gotten better since then. Even with Merrifield and Perez in the lineup (which I would expect them to be as they were last night) that’s about the extent of guys that will do damage. I don’t see Garcia having another 3 for 4 game here.
I think this is the best value on the card for today. Personally I have this line somewhere closer to -175, so I’m going to take advantage of the implied probability.
Take Nestor Cortes U2.5 Earned Runs -115 2U
You can find all my premium plays on The Odds Breakers as well here.
Rob V: Saturday MLB Power System Play
Saturday card has a RARE 6* MLB Blowout and a PLATINUM SUPREME TOTAL Headlining Bases. We alos have another TOP Tennis play now on a 13-1 run. In CFL Action we have a Triple System side and 2 BIG Soccer plays. MLB Comp play below
The Saturday MLB Comp Play is on the Chicago Whitesox at 7:15 eastern. Chicago has Cueto going and he has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 straight starts and has a 1.35 Era in his last 3 starts. Blackburn for Oakland has hit a wall and has a 13.19 Era over his last 3 starts allowing 21 earned runs in 14 innings. Chicago is 39-14 vs .400 or worse teams. Oakland has sprung another upset win. However we note that road dogs of 130 or more that scored 5+ runs in a road dog win that was preceded by 2 home dog wins have just 1 win since 2004. Look for Chicago to get game 2 of the series. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Premiums, 7.30
What’s up people!
An absolutely BRUTAL beat last night on the Sky, who outperformed the Liberty in every single category except the one that mattered in the end: free throws. The Sky missed 3 FTs in the final 40 seconds to push our one wager and lose the other. It doesn’t take a calculus major to note that if they hit those free throws, we cover, win, and we look like ballsy sharps. Ah well, that’s variance and that’s why you NEVER over-invest in any one wager!
Onto Saturday; let’s make it a big one! Added more plays in CFL and UFC below, too.
WNBA Picks (12-10-1, +1.10 units):
Wings win (EVEN), to win 1.2 units
Wings TT over 81.5, to win 1.5 units
The WNBA’s best defensive team (the Dream) host the Dallas Wings today, the association’s best offense. The Wings lead the WNBA with a 112.1 offensive rating, nearly a full point above the touted Aces. Atlanta won the first two contests in this series so I like that this may matter more to the Wings, although the Dream better get off their collective asses if they hope to make the playoffs. Something’s wrong with their defense. In their last 3 games, all losses, Atlanta has allowed 86.3 ppg, and against offense that don’t have the same ability as Dallas. Once held up by their stingy defense, the Dream will hope to find it again tonight but I don’t trust it. The Wings are staying afloat, they’re not terrible on the road (7-7), and they’re very skilled at running the floor and taking advantage of second-chance opportunities. I think they overwhelm the Dream with high-octane offense and get the win today. Regression may hit Atlanta eventually, but they’re dumbfounded right now.
CFL Picks (8-6, +2.85 units):
Calgary 1Q +0.5 (-160), to win 1 unit
Calgary 1H +0.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
UFC 277 Picks (4-9, +2.02 units):
Pena/Nunes under 2.5 rounds (-115), to win 2 units
If I were abiding by the “Kelly Criterion,” I might bet a lot more than this because the formula tells me to spend way more than just 2 units here. I think this has a 60% chance of hitting, which I realize is probably conflated by my own bias, but the Criterion tells me to put 14 units on this. Interesting. In any case, I don’t like over-exposing myself in UFC — solo sports are so difficult to predict because of the sudden nature of 1-1 competition. One knockout, one slip, and you’re done. We learned the hard way betting on Aspinall last weekend. Anyway, these two chicks DO NOT like each other and I expect Amanda Nunes, who’s equal parts calculated and equal parts aggressive in these spots, to come out focused and make contact immediately. She’s on a mission, she wants her title back, and even better for this bet: Julianna Pena isn’t scared. Like, at all. I think these two warriors take it to each other early and often and someone goes night night.
Kai-Kara France by KO/TKO or DQ (+475), to win 4.75 units
I’ll keep this short – I think Brandon Moreno isn’t taking Kai-Kara France seriously enough. Moreno is a long-time killer in the flyweight division, deserving of his moniker, “the Assassin.” But France has legitimate KO power and if Moreno allows himself to get too close to France, which I think he will b/c of some veteran overconfidence, the young buck could put the former to champ to sleep in a millisecond. This line should be, in my opinion, under +300. I’ll take my chances with some great value here.
Derrick Lewis in Round 1 (+230), to win 1.15 units
THESE are the fights where Lewis does his best work. The freaks out there — Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou — Derrick Lewis doesn’t fare well in those battles. Pavlovich is a big SOB and he has the reach advantage, but Lewis has a way of luring his opponents inside for a nice little crack. And that’s often all it takes. Pavlovich has some good fights under his belt, but this is a big step up in competition, The Black Beast has seen it all and I can’t imagine he’ll take his time – a confident Lewis ends it early.
Pantoja wins inside distance (+180), 0.8 units to win 1.44 units
Pantoja has never been finished and even in a very deep flyweight division, he has the more dynamic arsenal of ways to beat you. Submissions, TKO ability, and a constancy to his game, I think he takes down a talented Perez and earns another bid at a title shot.
Ankalaev wins inside distance (+135), 1.2 units to win 1.6 units
Magomed Ankalaev hasn’t lost for over 4 years and he’s riding an 8 fight win streak heading into this contest. Looking to become the next light heavyweight championship contender, Ankalaev faces no easy challenge today in Anthony Smith, who sounds determined to upset the dominant Ankalaev and stifle his climb to the top. Here’s the problem – although Anthony Smith is a dynamic, veteran UFC fighter (I saw him once at a bar in DC, intimidating dude for sure), Ankalaev won’t be affected by his gamesmanship. In fact, I think it’ll play right into Ankalaev’s heavy hands. Magomed can beat his opponents in myriad ways and like we saw in previous fights (Ion Cutelaba, for example), when an opponent is overly aggressive against Ankalaev, they pay for it. That’s how Anthony Smith is approaching this contest and I think it ends early because of it.
Nicolae Negumereanu (-123), to win 1 unit
Negumereanu faces Ihor Potieria today in a fight between two light heavyweights trying to at least peek into top contendership in their division. It’s unlikely that either one of these fighters are skilled enough to get there in the long run, but Nicolae has the patience and diversity of skill to outlast Potieria, who doesn’t seem to know how to win fights unless he can explode and KO his opponent early. NN is one of the most durable fighters in the UFC, with only 1 pro loss, and he’s never been beaten early. Take Nicolae Negumereanu for an early win on your card.
UFC 277 Free Plays – Sports Betting
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54% all time NFL sides and totals! 9.5% ROI
56% all time College Football sides and totals! 12% ROI
54% lifetime sides and totals in College Basketball – 1% ROI
48% lifetime UFC on all plays 13.5% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Amanda Nunes vs Juliana Pena +225
Ok, this is the rematch between who some call the GOAT of at least women’s MMA and the woman who beat her back in December 2021. Now this line is a massive shift from -1000 for Nunes down to -280 and I have to ask myself why the huge market discrepancy? Now Amanda was clearly out of shape for her Pena fight, and it showed when she uncharacteristically tapped on a weak submission attempt in the middle of the second round on a three round fight. Why did that happen? Well, Amanda went through a lot of life changes. She got married to Nina Nunes and they had a child together through in vitro fertilization. I having kids myself know quite well how much that it is the largest distraction from work that you could ever possibly imagine. Anyways, how much are we going to punish Amanda for this? $8 of line value seems quite steep and especially in a sport where everyone loses. Lets look at the metrics. These two women have similar stats and you have to give the striking advantage to Amanda’s at 4.55 to Pena’s 3.36, while giving the Wrestling advantage to Pena. In saying that, the strength of schedule very very much in favor of Nunes being that she is the only woman to beat Valentina Shevchenko twice as well as all of the other top contenders in the Bamtam weight class. Pena, before her Nunes fight, had her best win against against Sara McMann and then lost two out of her last three fights before that to submission if you can believe that. The final part of this handicap is Pena’s weakness that nobody is talking about. Juliana’s take down defense is a pathetic 22% which means if Amanda has any brains, she will just start taking her down all fight until she is warn out enough to chase a submission. Nunes needs to protect her gas-tank here, and she can’t blow her strength out like she did in the first round in the last fight. Nunes take down defense is a strong 82% so I am ok if Pena tries to shoot. I think the last fight was an anomaly, and Pena has never went past a 3rd round in a fight. I am going to take Nunes ITD and by submission.
Nunes ITD -135 – 2 stars
Nunes by submission +550 – 1 star
Bonus Play: The whole perception of the Black beast and Sergei Pavlovich is that they finish their fights and/or get beaten early. Well, that is mainly true when they are fighting inferior opponents but I think that both of these fighters respect each other enough to get past. 1.5 rounds. Sergei trains at Eagles MMA which has a huge focus on wrestling/grappling and having two large humans on the ground can really push the clock here.
Lewis/Pavlovich over 1.5 rounds – 1 star
Doubling Down on the Sky
The Sky line has moved down to -7.5 at some books, -8 at most. This may scare some bettors away but I’m doubling down. Gotta be confident about your angles when you’re confident, and I think that’s the public moving it down. See the added bet in red below:
WNBA Picks (12-8, +3.85 units):
Fever +14 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a bad spot for Las Vegas. Coming 2 days after a Commissioner’s Cup win over the WNBA’s reigning champs, the Aces fly to Indiana to play in probably their most meaningless game of the season. Their place in the postseason is all but sealed, and they have a game against Indiana again on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the Aces rest some of their harder-working starters and although they have more than enough talent to still win, even at 80% effort or so, the Fever would love to knock the conference’s #1 team off their pedestal. This will be a big game for Indiana and a very sleepy game, in all likelihood, for the Aces. Win or not, this is the side to play.
Sky -10 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Sky -8 (-110), to win 2 units
On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a reason why this line is so massive: the Chicago Sky must be absolutely furious with their recent results. I was watching some old Monday Night Raw episodes last night when I couldn’t sleep for some cheap late-night entertainment. It was a 2003 episode, Goldberg joined the WWE and someone tried to run over him that night in the show storyline. Needless to say, ol’ Goldberg was pissed and he was ready to take it out on his opponent, Christian. Christian got absolutely mutilated in a steel cage, and even though that’s fake-ass wrestling, it’s also a good story on human nature. The Sky lost their last matchup against the Liberty and just got upset by the Aces in the CC. Time to apply revenge on the world and the Liberty are within range. All Sky for me. I think it’s a blowout.
WNBA Free Pick – July 29: Liberty vs. Sky
Coming off a 1-1 night, our WNBA record sits at 3-3. Rolling with one play tonight that seems like an easy one, but don’t they all initially? Let’s hope hindsight doesn’t tell a different story.
Sky -10 at DraftKings, 1 unit* (The line has moved to -10.5 at most other places but I would still play that too)
This is a big line, but Chicago is coming off two straight losses and is ready to prove that they’re still the best team in the league. The Sky lost to the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup on Tuesday and missed out on the larger bag of prize money. The game before that, they fell to the Liberty on the road thanks to an And-1 by Sabrina Ionescu with nine seconds left and two free throws that sealed the deal for New York. Chicago also shot just 12% from deep. Ouch.
In their two previous meetings with New York, Chicago won 83-50 early in the season and 88-86 in mid-June. Candance Parker had an off night in that second game, shooting just 1-4 from the field for four points. I see this game looking much more like their first meeting with the Liberty. Chicago is coming into this one in a great spot, having a few days of rest since the Cup game. I also expect them to be as motivated as they’ve been all season. This is not only a revenge game against their recent loss over New York but also a great bounce-back game from their loss in the Commissioner’s Cup. It’s going to be all Chicago in the Windy City tonight. Let’s lay the points!
More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.
*All plays listed are to win that amount.
