The Sky haven’t been stellar but it’s time for them to turn up the heat and when they do, at home, there’s little chance that the Liberty can keep up. Game 1 goes to the Sky, in big fashion.
Mercury/Aces over 167.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I think -14 is a bit too high, but the Aces have been pedal to the medal on offense, scoring with pace and never letting off the gas. They’ve also allowed plenty of their opponents to chase all game. Love the over here.
We have arrived at week 2 of the Pre-Season, which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
NFC South
2021 Records
Tampa Bay 13-4/ New Orleans 9-8/ Atlanta 7-10/ Carolina 5-12
Tampa Bay – It should go without saying that if Tom Brady goes down this whole division is wide open. Bruce Arians retired with the news that Brady would comeback for one more year as he didn’t want to leave Todd Bowles in the midst of a major transition, but even with Brady still supposedly playing this year the Bucs are in flux! Brady is 45 years old, but he still led the NFL in yards and TDs last season. Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard will attempt to give him some relief through a stronger running game. That could be difficult as the O-Line through retirement and injury could have 3 new starters in the inside. Gronk is retired (again) and Chris Godwin is still recovering from an ACL, but Mike Evans will continue to be a force. I’m skeptical Julio Jones has much left in the tank, but maybe Brady will let him sip a little from his fountain of youth. On defense the secondary gave up a ton last year, but a lot of that has to do with having the lead all the time and no one being able to run on Bowles’ defense. If Devon White and Lavonte David are healthy on the inside I think we will see much of the same from this side of the ball. They will need to find a way to get more pressure home though to help out that secondary. Vegas Win Prediction: 11.5 Juiced Even -115
New Orleans – I really thought I’d come up with the Saints as one of the biggest gainers in the NFC. After doing my rankings, they weren’t quite as big of an improvement as I thought, but the possibilty does exist. The reason is simple Jameis Winston should be back healthy and showed he had made a big time step forward. The Taysom Hill experiment should be over for the most part as he will be used again like he was when Drew Brees was running the show. News came down today Alvin Kamara will likely not be disciplined by the NFL so the running game should be 100%. Michael Thomas is back in the fold after not playing since essentially 2020, and is joined by Jarvis Landry and first rounder Chris Olave. This receiving group is gonna make some noise. The O-Line is probably the weakest offensive group, but I like the foundation and I think draft pick Trevor Penning has all-pro potential. On defense they are led by Cameron Jordan who is one of the pass rushers in the game. They have had a top 4 rushing defense the last four years to go with a great pass rush. In the secondary they lost both starting safeties, but grabbed some big names in free agency in Tyrann Matthieu and Marcus Williams. Marshon Lattimore will need some help on the other side, but I think they at least didn’t take any steps backwards in the back end. Vegas Win Prediction: 8.5 Juiced over at -125
Carolina – Christian McCaffrey has not been able to stay healthy along with the Panthers offensive line. Combine that with dismal quaterback play and that was their downfall in 2021. I think Baker Mayfield gets them at least a few more wins than they had in 2021, and Matt Corral was my favorite QB coming out of college to succeed in the NFL, so I like how their draft went as well. DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson can both play, they just need someone to get them the ball. The defense was not the issue although they gave up points, a lot of those were due to the fact that the offense could not stay on the field. They were #2 in YPG allowed in 2021. The secondary is particularly strong led by Cornerback Donte Jackson. They also added LB Damien Wilson and drafted Brandon Smith to help at the weakest point in the defense. If they find a way to score I’d lookout for this team. Vegas Win Prediction: 6 Juiced over at -135
Atlanta– The Falcons are a hot mess, and didn’t improve in the off-season. They drafted a TE #1 last year in Kyle Pitts who should improve, and this year took receiver Drake London. I don’t love skill positions at the top of a rebuild when you don’t have the quarterback of the future yet on your roster. Maybe they think it is Desmond Ridder, and there is a good chance we will find out before the end of the year if that is true. Cordarelle Patterson had a nice year at running back for them and will be the bulk of their offense again in 2022 as Marcus Mariota will hold the baton at QB to start the season. The receiving core looks like the invite list to Cleveland’s Spring Training in the movie major league though. The defense gave up 365 yards per game in 2021 to go along with finishing 30th in points allowed. They won’t be much better in 2022 as they made no major acquisitions on that side of the ball outside of Cornerback Casey Heyward Jr. The only way they are winning games this year is if the turnover genie grants them three wishes every game. Vegas Win Prediction: 4.5 Juiced Even -115
2022 Projections:
Tampa Bay 12-5
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 8-9
Atlanta 4-13
NFC South Action:
Tampa Bay – No Action If Brady is healthy this team could still easily win 13 games just by outscoring every other team.
New Orleans – Over 8.5 – 1.5 Units. If they beat Tampa week 2 or Minnesota week 4, there’s a solid chance to hedge back for a middle here as well.
Carolina – Honestly this was the first futures bet I played on the NFL this year with Carolina over 5.5. Baker Mayfield is 1-2 wins better than Darnold/Newton in my eyes so if this team stays heathy I think they should hit 6 with no issues. The lines is now up to 6 or 6.5 depending on the book, and I would still play a over bet on those for 1 Unit. +1000 to win division is worth a sprinkle also.
Atlanta – No Action. They’re gonna be bad, but not sure how bad.
A 5-3, +1.7u weekend got me back into the green overall this MLB season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays looking to start the new week off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners/Angels F5 UNDER 3.5(-125)–8:38 PM CT
This is as top-of-the-line of a pitching matchup as you could have drawn up. Considering I believe the F5 total should be set at 3, I do see value in backing each of these SP’s tonight.
Angels SP Shohei Ohtani is an easy guy to back, ESPECIALLY in his home ballpark. Ohtani pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA at Angel Stadium last year, and here in 2022, he holds a 2.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his home ballpark. In his one prior matchup against Seattle this year, Ohtani twirled 6 shutout innings. While the Mariners have above average numbers in this role, this is still a lineup I can’t give the benefit of the doubt when stepping up in competition(look at how they stepped up against the Astros’ better arms).
Since June 1st of last year, Luis Castillo has been one of the best performing pitchers in baseball. In only 2 starts as a Mariner, he has established himself as their best arm after throwing 8 scoreless innings against the Yankees last week. Tonight, he’ll face one of the most deadbeat lineups in the league. Since June 1st, the Angels hold the second-lowest wRC+ vs righties in all of baseball. We’ve had great success fading this lineup, and until Mike Trout returns from injury, I’ll probably continue to look for chances to fade this feeble unit.
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(-130) vs Diamondbacks–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Cobb checks a lot of the boxes I look for in SP’s. Cobb is allowing just 0.5 HR/9 at Oracle Park this year in large part because he produces over 3 times as many ground balls as he does fly balls. Overall, he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this year and sees his overall FIP at 2.91. The Diamondbacks have been pretty subpar in this role, carrying a 91 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st. I’m expecting Cobb to hold the D-Backs in check.
Diamondbacks SP Madison Bumgarner is obviously a legend in San Francisco, but he is WELL past his prime. The lefty’s WHIP sits at 1.40, he is allowing well over 1 hit per inning, and his numbers are much worse on the road(4.88 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). This is a tougher matchup than people think; the Giants have recorded a 125 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park this year and enter tonight having scored 5 runs/game over their last 8. Bumgarner is a stubborn guy who has refused to adapt to his diminishing ability, and I believe it will continue to bite him tonight like it has all year.
Subscribe for the coming Football Season Here at TheOddsBreakers.
Notre Dame Over 8.5
The Irish returned only 9 starters last season. They return 15 starters for this season
They have the 44th toughest schedule
The defense is returning 6 of their top 7 leading tacklers
Notre Dame should have a top 10 offensive and defensive line so they will be tough up front and top 5 defensive back group
I read where Coach Freeman thinks the linebacker group might be the strongest unit of all of them. This is going to be a good defensive team.
They do lose their QB and HB this season. But Buchner at QB, we saw last season that young man could make a lot of plays with his feet and extend plays that Jack Coan just was not able to do.
Buchner had 7.3 yards per carry last season, that led the team for players with at least 40 attempts. I think he will be fun to watch.
The Irish open at Ohio St, that will be a tough game to win but it is early
The rest of the season, they face BYU in Las Vegas, in South Bend vs Clemson who will be coming off of a bye and maybe at USC the final game of the season will be the games the Irish have to worry about.
At worst, I think they split those 4 which puts them at 10 wins and would still allow for a slip up we maybe did not expect along the way and that would be 9. I think this is probably a 9 to 10 win team.
Over 8.5 is juiced at -145. I would still take this at 9 if you can find it with a little Push protection there. The biggest question will be Freeman as a head coach. But I like Notre Dame Over 8.5
This Saints team started 5-2 last season and then Jameis Winston went down. Winston had 14 TD and 3 INTs before his season ending injury,
Winston should be healthy for the opener after a minor ankle injury and he will have Michael Thomas back who was not available last season.
Winston and Thomas are +550 and +850 respectively to win Comeback Player of the Year. Worth a look I think.
The Saints also add Jarvis Landry at WR and drafted Olave out of Ohio St.
That is going to make Alvin Kamara even better. Kamar’s ypc dipped to 3.7 last season with a career high in carries without much help on offense after rushing for 5 yards per carry in 2020.
I liked the Saints Over 8 in June but there was some question about Kamara being suspended for the incident in Vegas in the off season. Kamara’s next court date now has been pushed back for a third time so Kamara won’t be back in court possibly until October. The NFL won’t pass out any discipline until the legal process has taken its course so that may run into 2023.
This Saints defense allowed the 4th fewest points per game last season. They have added Tyrann Mathieu who went to his 3rd Pro Bowl last season. They have also added Demario Davis at LB. He is 33 years old but has been first or 2nd team ALL Pro each of the last 3 seasons
New Orleans beat Tampa twice last season.
This was a 9 win team last season without at QB for over half of the season.
I like the Saints to get to at least 9 wins. So Over 8.5.
You can get New Orleans at 3 to 1 to win the division. I’d probably sprinkle that as well.
Check out Alan Cashman’s Subscription Packages here at TheOddsBreakers.
Another 2-1 day has me feeling great entering Sunday. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to close out the weekend strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(-125) vs Athletics–1:10 PM CT
Astros SP Cristian Javier has obviously had a breakout year, and a lot of that success has come at Minute Maid Park. At home this year, Javier holds a 2.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and is striking out 11.5 batters per 9 innings. Javier is also allowing just 6.2 hits per 9 innings. He gets a dream matchup facing one of the worst offenses in baseball; the A’s hold a poor 85 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st.
Athletics SP Cole Irvin has great numbers and has held this Astros lineup in check this year, but I qualify this as a very tough spot for the soft-throwing lefty. Today marks the 4th start Irvin will make against the Astros since July 10th. Considering Irvin fails to miss many bats and holds shaky road numbers(4.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), I think today is the day the Astros crack the code on this familiar arm. It’s worth noting that, since June 1st, the Astros rank 2nd in baseball with a 151 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park.
The Astros have one of the deepest and most effective bullpens in baseball, and by nature of squaring off with the A’s, they’ll hold a massive advantage in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 TT OVER 2.5(+110) vs Brewers–1:15 PM CT
Brewers SP Aaron Ashby is a young lefty arm with potential, but we’ve seen him struggle mightily here in 2022. Ashby holds an ugly 1.46 WHIP overall, and that WHIP jumps all the way up to 1.66 when he’s pitching on the road. Most notably, Ashby has very shaky control, walking 4.77 batters per 9 innings on the road this season.
This Cardinals lineup has been trustworthy against lefties all season. Overall, they hold a 127 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. We should not be getting plus-money on this.
We are +9.21u on our action in Cardinals’ games this year; let’s add to that today!
Sunday card led by a 56-3 MLB Power System, WNBA Game of the Month, NFLX Totals system and ESPN Power Play tonight. MLB Totals Play below
The MLB Comp play for Sunday is on the Under 7 runs for Philadelphia and NY at 1:40 eastern. This game fits a solid under system for home teams off a 1 run win with both teams accumulating 4 or less hits and the total is less than 10. These two played a thriller last night with the Mets escaping with a 1-0 win. Now we have Wheeler and Bassitt going . Wheeler has allowed 2 or less in 6 of 7 and has a 1.80 Era over his last 3 starts. Bassitt has a 1.71 Era over his last 3 and he has allowed 2 or less in 5 of 6. The Phils have gone under 7 of 8 in game 3 of a series and the last 4 with a total in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Mets have struggled to score in this series and we look for a lower scoring game here that plays under. Rob V-
Today Kiev O’Neil talks with ESPN’s The Bear Chris Fallica and WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels giving out their best preseason plays for the 2022 football season! Please subscribe to our YouTube below.
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
54% all time NFL sides and totals! 9.5% ROI
56% all time College Football sides and totals! 12% ROI
54% lifetime sides and totals in College Basketball – 1% ROI
48% lifetime UFC on all plays 13.5% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Hello Premium Members! We have now set up “telegram” so there will be much less or no issues getting immediate plays when they are made! Please click this link to join. Please try and keep your telegram name similar to your email address or name so that I can match up the membership. If not, we may have to ask. Thanks for all of your support! It means everything to me!
We started the weekend off with a 2-1, +0.9u night! I’m rolling with 3 more plays for tonight looking to add to that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Padres TT OVER 5.5(-120) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
The Padres struggled mightily after their splash moves at the Trade Deadline, but this is a lineup that has clearly rounded into form. The Friars have plated 30 runs over their last 3 games, including 10 in last night’s game against these Nationals. Considering who they’ll face tonight, I expect this upward trend to continue.
Nationals SP Anibal Sanchez is hanging on to a pipe dream at this point. The 38 year old righty has lost all 5 of his starts this year, carrying a 7.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP into tonight’s start. Most concerning, Sanchez is now allowing more fly balls than ground balls for the first time since 2017; as such, he has allowed 8 HR’s in his 5 starts.
The Nationals also have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league and are anything but fresh by nature of getting blown out pretty routinely in the month of August.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-125) vs Phillies–6:10 PM CT
I don’t think people grasp how great Mets SP Jacob DeGrom truly is. In 15 starts last year, DeGrom pitched to a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP and allowed just 40 hits in 92 innings. In 2 starts this year, DeGrom has allowed just 5 baserunners. Not only have the Phillies been poor against righties on the road this summer(86 wRC+ in this role since June 1st), but they have found no success off of DeGrom in the past. The projected starting lineup for the Phillies is just a career 13-for-93 off of DeGrom, and might be without Kyle Schwarber once again.
Phillies SP Aaron Nola has had a very good 2022 season(sub-1.00 WHIP), but he is obviously going to be at a disadvantage in this pitching matchup. In addition, the Mets pose a pretty tough matchup; this lineup holds a 117 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st. The Mets are very familiar with Nola and have gotten to him in the past; 6 of the 9 projected starters have a career OPS above .825 off of Nola. 1 of 2 runs is all we may need to cash this bet.
*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 ML(-115) vs Mariners–6:15 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning is a completely different pitcher in his home ballpark than he is on the road. Dunning held a 3.09 ERA at home last year and holds a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this season. It’s not hard to see why Dunning’s heavy ground ball nature plays nicely in the new Rangers’ park. The Mariners might be slightly above average in this role, but this is not a lineup I’m afraid to go against. Dunning held the Rangers to 2 ER in 7 innings earlier this summer at home, and I’d expect a similar line tonight.
Mariners SP Marco Gonzales is a soft-throwing lefty that has found his niche in Seattle, but he has been shaky at best on the road. Gonzales already allows well over 1 hit per inning, but on the road, he’s walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings and allowing 1.9 HR/9; his 1.61 road WHIP is nasty. This is also a tough matchup facing a Rangers lineup that ranks 1st in the league with a 152 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark since June 1st. Texas pounded Gonzales for 11 hits and 5 ER at Globe Life Field earlier this summer(we were on that), proving this is an arm they match up well with.
