Kate Constable joins the pod today to talk NFL and WNBA betting, and Chris gets AMPED talking about some misconceptions in the sports betting world – check it out!
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I carry a 118-112-4, +1.94u into tonight and have locked 1 play in. I’ll likely be on another as well. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) @ Rangers–7:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Cole Ragans will be making his Major League debut in an incredibly tough spot. The White Sox rank 1st in the league with a 133 wRC+ on the road vs left-handed pitching and have mashed lefties each of the past 3 seasons. While Ragans has good overall numbers in the minors, he has had his fair share of struggles with walks. This is not only a major step up in competition, but it’s also a horrible matchup. While the White Sox have been inconsistent this season overall, they have gotten each of their key right-handed bats healthy and back off of the IL and started to get the bats going in their recent home stand.
I would also lean towards the White Sox F5 -0.5 given the Rangers’ poor current form and overall inadequiacies vs right-handed pitching. My only concern is I worry Johnny Cueto is due for some serious regression sooner than later. Cueto’s FIP is a well over 1 run higher than his ERA, and he has scathed by with a left-on-base percentage well over 80%.
I’ll isolate the matchup I feel best about and trust the White Sox offense in this advantageous spot.
*Likely on Cardinals G2 TT OVER 4.5 for 1u
The Cardinals will be playing a double-header today after last night’s game was postponed. Given they face a vulnerable lefty in Game 2 of this twin bill and rank 1st in wRC+ vs lefties at home, I will likely be on their TT tonight. With that said, I’m a huge stickler about not playing the 2nd game of a DH before we see the first. I expect to be on this, but make sure you’re following my Twitter and/or are in my Telegram group to be certain.
The Angels of the outfield are still not back with Mike Trout’s behind still planted on the DL, and Anthony Rendon still licking his wounds from that brawl. More importantly, we have to look at the pitchers in this matchup. Oakland’s Paul Blackburn has been good this year with a 3.8 FIP, but absolutely sick on the road with a away split of 2.88 FIP and a .250 wOBA. Angels young pitcher Jason Junk better have some good junk today being that he has less than 25 innings of major league experience, with a 4.7 FIP. I think that Oakland wins the starting pitching matchup here in LA, and I think the 1st 5 at -110 warrants a play.
LV Aces/Dallas Wings 1H over 84.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Firstly, you best believe that this game is circled for Dallas, at home, against their conference’s #1 team after losing the first two matchups this season. This is a great setup to take the Wings, who are in 3rd in the West and need to keep their playoff hopes alive. The first contest between these two clubs was low-scoring and out-of-the-ordinary. Both teams shot around 25% from beyond the arc, ew, and both teams had bad overall shooting nights. In their second matchup things regressed to the mean, far eclipsing the total. At home, I think the Wings come out firing like they did in their last home game against Vegas. Dallas has been a top 3 offense over their last 5 games, the Aces defense hasn’t looked sharp, and the Aces love to run the floor at a fast-pace in response to their opponent’s offensive success. While this could slow down late in a testy conference game, I’ll take the 1H over and the Wings to make it a competitive contest.
HEY, there’s NFL football on tonight! Remember when we bet on baseball? lol… I’ve also added a new play, in red, in the CFL, since I think that line has moved down WAY too much.
NFL First Pick of the Season!
HOF Game Under 33 (-105), to win 1 unit Hall of Fame games average 29 ppg since 2012, and now more than ever, teams are trying to avoid injury and avoid showing all their new talent in the preseason. That’s especially true in the Hall of Fame game. It’s more a scrimmage or practice than a game, so I think it’s well worth a shot at the under.
WNBA Picks (19-13-1, +6.30 units):
Wings +8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit, and
LV Aces/Dallas Wings over 84.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Firstly, you best believe that this game is circled for Dallas, at home, against their conference’s #1 team after losing the first two matchups this season. This is a great setup to take the Wings, who are in 3rd in the West and need to keep their playoff hopes alive. The first contest between these two clubs was low-scoring and out-of-the-ordinary. Both teams shot around 25% from beyond the arc, ew, and both teams had bad overall shooting nights. In their second matchup things regressed to the mean, far eclipsing the total. At home, I think the Wings come out firing like they did in their last home game against Vegas. Dallas has been a top 3 offense over their last 5 games, the Aces defense hasn’t looked sharp, and the Aces love to run the floor at a fast-pace in response to their opponent’s offensive success. While this could slow down late in a testy conference game, I’ll take the 1H over and the Wings to make it a competitive contest.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
Blue Bombers -4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game..
We have a great show for you today! Doug Upstone from Doc Sports is back to break down some NFL Pigskin! First, the guys talk about some baseball and reactions from the trade deadline. Next, Kiev and Doug get right into football asking which teams will make the playoffs that didn’t make it last year, and vice-versa. Then, Doug and Kiev get into some NFL divisions with season win total plays and some future bets. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN Santos vs Hill. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
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The Marlins are sending out their star pitcher, Sandy Alcantara. Sandy continues to prove that he belongs in the conversation as one of the best starting pitchers in the game.
Alcantara is 9-4, posting a 1.99 ERA which is 2nd best in the league among qualified pitchers. On top of that unbelievable ERA, he has 138 strikeouts, ranking 9th best in the MLB.
His Home/Away splits are nearly identical, so it seems Sandy is comfortable in any ballpark he pitches in.
Home Splits Record: 5-3 ERA: 2.00 OBA: .190
Away Splits Record: 4-1 ERA: .198 OBA: .199
Overall during the 2022 season, the opponents’ average is a measly .194 against Alcantara. He has the advantage of going against a lousy Reds lineup who just traded away one of their best hitter in Brandon Drury.
The Cincinnati Reds rank 22nd in ISO (.140), 20th in wOBA (.304), and have the 4th highest K-Rate (24.1%) in the MLB.
Reds starter Mike Minor has been anything but good this season. Minor is 1-7 with an era of 6.31. Minor has given up at least one home run in all but one of his starts this season and at least two home runs in 4 of his 10 starts.
I like the value in backing one of the best pitchers in the game and hoping the Marlins can sneak a run or two across early against a weaker pitcher in Mike Minor.
A 1-2 night brings my overall MLB record to 118-112-4, +1.94u. I’m sticking with 1 play looking to right the ship and start another run. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+115) vs Cubs–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas not only holds a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP on the season, but those numbers improve significantly in his home ballpark(2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). Mikolas has impeccable control(1.4 BB/9 at home this year) but is simultaneously allowing just 7.15 H/9. The Cubs were shut out last night by Adam Wainwright and co. and in general have looked lifeless at the plate for most of this road trip. While they (shockingly) retained both Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ, this is a lineup that holds a measly 93 wRC+ vs righties on the road this season.
Cubs SP Justin Steele might hold a sub-4.00 ERA, but his 1.43 WHIP is downright gross. In addition, Steele has consistently struggled away from Wrigley Field this season, carrying a 4.71 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this year. This is a nightmare matchup for Steele facing off with a Cardinals lineup that ranks 1st in the league with an astounding 141 wRC+ vs lefties at home this season. The Red Birds are also in great current form offensively, scoring at least 5 runs in each of their 5 ballgames.
The Cardinals’ bullpen is extremely fresh after an off day on Monday and only needing Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton in last night’s win. On the other hand, the Cubs traded David Robertson, Scott Effross, and Chris Martin at the Trade Deadline; this is not a unit I would want to trust down the stretch of the season.
We are +8.21u in our action on Cardinals’ games this year; let’s add to that tonight!
Hump Day card has an MLB Platinum Supreme headlining along with a Rare 6* WNBA Late night Total and the Soccer Game of the week. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Miami Marlins at 6:40 eastern. This is a heavy number to lay. However the Marlins are in a solid long term system that is 13-2 for home favorites in this range off back to back home favored loss scoring less than 3 runs in each. Miami has Alcantara going and he is one of a handful of starters with an Era under 2 this year. Minor for the Reds has been shellacked since coming back and has an Era nearing 7. The Marlins are 7-2 after losing the first 2 of a series and 4-1 at home vs a left hander. Look for the Marlins to take this one. On Hump day we have a Massive MLB Platinum Supreme play and a rare 6* in WNBA Action later tonight. We also have our Soccer Game of the Week. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on ans we get on the Giving end of Hump Day. For the MLB Comp play. Make it Miami. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 13-2
Aug 13, 2005 recap Sat 2005 home Marlins Josh Beckett-R Giants Brett Tomko-R 2-1 1 W -4.5 U 9-4 1-1 1-1 -230.0 7.5 9
Aug 30, 2006 recap Wed 2006 home Twins Boof Bonser-R Royals Luke Hudson-R 3-4 -1 L -3.0 U 6-12 1-0 2-2 -200.0 10.0 9
Jul 01, 2008 recap Tue 2008 home Yankees Joba Chamberlain-R Rangers Kevin Millwood-R 2-3 -1 L -4.0 U 9-9 1-0 0-2 -210.0 9.0 9
Jul 18, 2009 recap Sat 2009 home Dodgers Clayton Kershaw-L Astros Mike Hampton-L 5-2 3 W -1.0 U 8-6 1-1 5-0 -210.0 8.0 9
Sep 12, 2010 recap Sun 2010 home Brewers Yovani Gallardo-R Cubs Casey Coleman-R 2-0 2 W -6.5 U 6-5 0-1 2-0 -200.0 8.5 9
Aug 08, 2012 recap Wed 2012 home Dodgers Chad Billingsley-R Rockies Jeff Francis-L 6-4 2 W 2.5 O 9-8 1-2 3-2 -210.0 7.5 9
Aug 11, 2012 recap Sat 2012 home Giants Matt Cain-R Rockies Drew Pomeranz-L 9-3 6 W 5.0 O 13-9 1-0 7-0 -225.0 7.0 9
Jul 30, 2015 recap Thu 2015 home Cardinals Carlos Martinez-R Rockies Christopher Rusin-L 9-8 1 W 10.0 O 14-16 3-0 3-2 -200.0 7.0 9
Mar 31, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Dodgers Kenta Maeda-R Giants Derek Holland-L 5-0 5 W -3.0 U 4-9 0-3 5-0 -200.0 8.0 9
Jul 01, 2018 recap Sun 2018 home Dodgers Ross Stripling-R Rockies Chad Bettis-R 6-4 2 W 1.5 O 11-9 0-1 2-2 -230.0 8.5 9
May 08, 2019 recap Wed 2019 home Guardians Shane Bieber-R White Sox Reynaldo Lopez-R 5-3 2 W -0.5 U 12-9 0-0 2-1 -200.0 8.5 9
Sep 16, 2019 recap Mon 2019 home Diamondbacks Robbie Ray-L Marlins Pablo Lopez-R 7-5 2 W 3.0 O 9-8 1-2 3-2 -205.0 9.0 9
Apr 26, 2021 recap Mon 2021 home Braves Charlie Morton-R Cubs Zach Davies-R 8-7 1 W 6.5 O 10-6 1-0 4-0 -200.0 8.5 9
May 27, 2022 recap Fri 2022 home Padres Sean Manaea-L Pirates Jose Quintana-L 4-3 1 W 0.0 P 7-4 0-1 1-3 -215.0 7.0 9
Jun 01, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Red Sox Garrett Whitlock-R Reds Hunter Greene-R 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 8-7 1-0 6-0 -200.0 8.5 9
Aug 03, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Marlins Sandy Alcantara-R Reds Mike Minor-L -200.0 7.0
Nice 4 unit day in the WNBA last night. Let’s get some more today! Hopefully you all bet on the under for tomorrow’s HOF game – that line has moved down but we gave it out early last week. Also got an MLB parlay that’s NOT a lean, aka it’s an official play, below in red.
Onto the hump!
NFL First Pick of the Season!
HOF Game Under 33 (-105), to win 1 unit Hall of Fame games have averaged 29 ppg since 2012, and now more than ever, teams are trying to avoid injury and avoid showing all their new talent in the preseason. That’s especially true in the Hall of Fame game. It’s more a scrimmage or practice than a game, so I think it’s well worth a shot at the under.
MLB Leans:
Tampa (+114)
Baltimore (+133)
Mets/Nats under 9 (-110)
Parlay: Astros/Yankees ML, 1.5 units to win 2.05 units
The Yankees and Astros both got bested by their competition last night and this is a great redemption spot at home for both teams. Cole is on the mound for NYY against Luis Castillo, who despite his solid numbers this year just isn’t a pitcher we trust. And Urquidy (3.86 ERA) hasn’t been stellar but he’s facing a pitcher in Brayan Bello who’s exclusively got murdered on the mound (8.82 ERA) and comes into this 0-3. With a name like “Brayan,” I guess we should expect as much. Can’t see this NOT hitting but then again, it’s baseball.
WNBA Picks (17-13-1, +3.8 units):
Atlanta Dream ML (-360), to win 1 unit
Atlanta Dream 1H ML (-195), to win 1 unit
Atlanta Dream -8.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Normally I don’t stack big ML plays but in this case, it’s worth the caution. The Atlanta Dream have been stumbling, losing and failing to cover their last 4 contests. Still, the Dream have an outside spot for a playoff bid and this is a fantastic get-right spot for them at home against the association’s worst. Atlanta is one of the best in the WNBA at rebounding, on defense, in 3-point shooting, and in gaining second-chance opportunities. Expect them to regress to the mean and do well in those categories tonight. The Fever are a wretched 5-27 overall and 10-21-1 ATS this year, unsurprisingly. Time for the Dream to gain some confidence and overwhelm a vastly inferior team.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game.
