Well I went to bed last night pretty certain that we would go 3-0 in our WNBA picks, and then that little thing called variance hit. Our TT was 1 point over and our full game total was only 1 point over on our UNDER plays in the Indiana/LA game. Yay!
Still though, feels like we’re gaining a nice grasp of the woman’s association. Many of you could probably give two fucks about watching the WNBA and I can’t say I watch any either. Still, there’s plenty to expose in a less nuanced market and money is money; expect more picks in other sports than MLB as we lead up to the NFL season.
WNBA Picks:
Chicago Sky -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Both Seattle and Chicago are both on tears right now, each winning 4 straight games and both by impressive margins in most of those contests. The Storm have won their last 4 games by an average of 21 pts, the Sky by an average of 11.25 pts. Of course the Storm faced Indiana, the WNBA’s worst, twice in that span, and the Sky had the most impressive win in a 15 point squashing of the Dream. In any case, these two played their lone battle in Seattle back on May 18th and the Sky fell to the Storm in a close battle. Another revenge spot, and an opportunity to bet on the better offense and rebounding team, at home. I’ll take the Sky to get their payback at noon.
CFL Picks, Week 7:
Ottawa Redblacks ML +125, to win 1.25 units (7.21)
Let’s take a shot on Ottawa. Both of these teams suck, but Montreal already got a win this season and Ottawa has not. Ottawa is at home, Montreal is winless on the road, and Ottawa is a better offensive team than the Alhouettes in most categories – they just need to take better advantage of opportunities. This is probably a game circled on the Redblacks calendar because it’s an actual, winnable opportunity and I think they finally get a W.
Hamilton/BC over 51.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
BC Lions TT over 29.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units (7.21)
A slight uptick in this total already but we think it could climb even more. BC owns the CFL’s best offense, averaging nearly 40 ppg, and there’s little evidence to believe that Hamilton can prevent the home team from continuing their dominance. Both teams are very skilled in their respective passing games and this should push the total up even more.
Winnipeg -7 (-115), to win 1.5 units (7.22)
This line came out at -4.5 and it completely befuddled me. I should have taken advantage of that immediately but I hesitated and wondered if there’s something I didn’t understand yet about the CFL market. I’m sure there’s still plenty to learn, but not in this case. Predictably, the Blue Bombers almost immediately rose to -7 and that’s where it currently sits. I’m sorry we didn’t get the best line but to be honest, this should NOT be close. The CFL’s best unit against the CFL’s worst unit, who’s showing fewer and fewer signs that they’re interested in playing competitive football. Not overthinking it anymore – Winnipeg slaughters Edmonton. PS – Winnipeg is also 3-0 on the road this season.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
AFC West – This conference was the best in the AFC last year and they have a shot at being the best in the whole NFL this year depending on how the NFC west finishes out. There has been some pretty big coaching changes with the Raiders and the Broncos as well as the quarterback position with the Broncos. The AFC West plays the NFC West which isn’t good the AFC South which is good. The win totals are juiced up pretty high in this division to 39 total wins where the average is 34 so let’s see what we can decipher.
Kansas City Chiefs –
Vegas win total: 10.5
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.01
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Tampa bay, vs Buffalo, @ Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Tyreek Hill, CB Charvarius Ward, FS Tyrann Mathieu, WR Byron Pringle, OLB Melvin Ingram, G Austin Blythe, DT Jarran Reed, CB Mike Hughes, SS Daniel Sorensen, RB Darrel Williams, ILB Anthony Hitchens, RT Mike Remmers, G Kyle Long, DE Alex Okafor
Key draft picks: CB Trent McDuffie, Edge George Karlaftis, WR Skyy Mooore, S Bryan Cook, LB Leo Chenal, and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: How did this team blow it vs the Bengals with a with a 21-3 lead late into the 1st half? A mix of choking and the Bengals making great adjustments at the half is what happened. Anyways, I think it is time to ask the question, what happens when you pay your quarterback 500 million bucks? You lose the rest of the team. I think that the Tyreek Hill loss wasn’t really all that bad, but when you add all of the other guys, it could spin out of control. I do like how the Chiefs did get their offensive line together last year, and that will be a strong point coming into the season for 2022. I also think that this team had a pretty good draft. The big issue is that their schedule is very very hard being the worst in the league when it comes to forecasted win totals. The Chiefs have only three easy games this year against Houston, Jacksonville, and Seattle. The rest are all hard.
My Number: 9.51
Action – Lean Under
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 4.75
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to the over -130
2021 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.87
Schedule: Medium – at large @ Cleveland, @ Atlanta, vs Miami
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses – LB Uchenna Nwosu, DT Justin Jones, OLB Kyzir White, RT Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph, CB Chris Harris, TE Jared Cook
Key additions: Edge Khalil Mack, CB JC Jackson, DT Sebastian Joseph, DT Austin Johnson, TE Gerald Everette, S Josh Harris, ILB Kyle Van Noy, CB Bryce Callahan
Key draft picks: G Zion Johnson, S JT Woods, RB Isaiah Spiller and a bunch of dudes
Summary: The Bolts didn’t do a heck of a lot in the draft but I feel that they had a pretty good offseason in general. Shedding that bad defensive line while paying for some better players, as well as a very experienced inside linebacker in Kyle Van Noy, should help this team improve on what they were worst at in stopping the run. I think that the Bolts missing the playoffs and getting a 3rd place schedule might have been a blessing in disguise for 2022. The First half of the season has a very easy schedule. The Second half is very hard, and they finish vs Tennessee, @ Indianapolis, Vs LA Rams, and @ Denver. The strategy is simple here to me. Play the over 10 wins and hedge out later to try and hit a middle. I think that they might be around 7-2 at the half way point.
My Number: 10.44 wins
Action – Play the over and hedge back later
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.75
3. Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to the over -120
2021 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.84
Schedule: Medium – at large vs NY Jets, vs @ Carolina, @ Baltimore
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Vick Vangio, QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DE Shelby Harris, CB Kyle Fuller, ILB Kenny Young, CB Bryce Callahan, DE Stephen Weatherly, CB Michael Ford, ILB AJ Johnson, RT Bobby Massie, DT Shamar Stephen, T Cameron Fleming
Key additions: Coach Nathaniel Hacket, QB Russell Wilson, OLB Randy Gregory, DT DJ Jones, CB K’Waun Williams, G Billy Turner, G Tom Compton
Key draft picks: Edge Nick Bonitto, TE Greg Dulcich, and a bunch of meh
Summary: This team is hype city. Everyone is on the Russell Wilson train this year but nobody seems to care that this team gutted their defense, and has a brand new unproven coach who has had a few years under Matt Lefleur. Now I do like some of the pickups that they made from the 49ers system, but this defense only ranked 15th in EPA on an easier schedule last year, and today they are much more thin. I also do not like the fact that this team had no top 63 draft picks while losing Noah Fant, and Shelby Harris in that Seattle trade. This team will be under a lot of pressure now that Russell Wilson is on this team and to be quite honest with you, I feel that he cares more about his social media and his image more than winning big football games. Looking at the Bronco’s 4th place schedule, I don’t think that it did them many favors having to play at Baltimore. This total is way too high.
My number: 8.92
Action – Find a good book and play this under 10 wins
Denver Broncos Power Rating: .5
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -120
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 7.34
Schedule: Hard – At large @ New Orleans, vs New England, @ Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Both coaches in Rich Bisaccia and John Gruden, WR Zay Jones, QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Hayward, WR Henry Ruggs, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Brandon Facyson, CB Damon Arnette, DE Carl Nassib, WR DeSean Jackson
Key additions: Coach Josh McDaniels, WR Devante Adams, Edge Chandler Jones, DE Bilal Nichols, RB Brandon Bolden, CB Anthony Averett, and a TON of low range dudes.
Key draft picks: G Dylan Parham, RB Zamir White, DL Neil Farrell Jr
Summary: Lots to decipher here with this Raiders team. Let’s start with the fact they they really overachieved last year by 2.66 games according to their Pythagorean winning percentage. That difference doesn’t bode well when their schedule is listed as hard with some very difficult at large games. Las Vegas had some very bad luck last year with John Gruden getting singled out, and then ousted by the NFL with a nice assist from the mainstream media. Let’s not forget the whole Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette situation gutting the team of some of their key starters. Here is the good news. The Raiders last year did continue to overachieve the last half of their season without Ruggs and Arnette, meaning that the loss might not be quite as hard as it looks on paper. I also really like them getting Devante Adams re-united with his college quarterback in Derek Carr. I also like the head coach hire of Josh McDaniels, and I think that his experience failing as a head coach in Denver a few years back might actually help him here. I don’t think that the Raiders get to 8 or 9 wins with this schedule this year, but I will be on them at times when they are a dog and I think that they will win some surprising games this year.
My Number: 7.24 wins
Action – Lean Under
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: 0
Bonus Play: Play the Chiefs at +175 and the Chargers at +250 to win the division. You are pretty much getting blended odds of about +112.5 for the top 2 teams.
The 150th edition of The Open at St. Andrews did certainly not disappoint. It looked like a two horse race going into the final round between Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland but that wasn’t the case at all. Cam Smith, went nuclear on the back nine shooting six under par win by a stroke.
Following The Open Championship we head to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. Given that it’s the week after a major-championship, we don’t have a great field. In the three editions of this event, we’ve seen longshots have success here. It’s not the most glamorous events by any means, but it does provide an opportunity to find those under the radar players.
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 21st, 2022 – July 24th, 2022
Location: Blaine, Minnesota, United States
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Course Type: Midwest/ Parkland
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,431 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Sunday: AM Showers 73 F, 9 mp/h N, 60% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The 3M Open debuted on the PGA Tour in 2019. Prior to that, TPC Twin Cities hosted the 3M Championship which was a Champions tour event from 1993-2018. The 3M Open is the PGA TOUR’s first regular stop in Minnesota in five decades. As one of the newer tournaments on the tour, they’ve taken a great approach to trying to grow the event and game. On hole 17, they added sky boxes with a goal of trying to mimic the famed rowdy par-3 16th hole at the Waste Management Open.
The course was originally a sod farm that was transformed to a championship golf course by Arnold Palmer Design Co with consultation from Minnesota native, Tom Lehman. Before the inaugural tournament in 2019, the course underwent a renovation. During that renovation, they lengthened the course, narrowed fairway lines, repositioned tees and bunkers, and added more space for grandstands and spectators.
72-Hole Record: 263, Matthew Wolff (2019)
18-Hole Record: 62, Scott Piercy (1st Rd, 2019), Bryson Dechambeau (2nd Rd, 2019), Matt Wolff (3rd Rd, 2019), Lucas Glover (4th Rd, 2019)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Twins Cities is apart of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) a group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. TPC courses are designed for amateur golfers who want to play the courses they see the pros playing on TV.
As with most TPC layouts, this course has a fairly straight forward set up with water coming into play on most of the holes. TPC Twin Cities has four Par 3’s with two having a stroke average under par (Holes 4, 8) and having stroke average over par (Holes 13, 17). If wind is a factor, as expected Hole 8 can be more difficult with the cross wind coming into play.
In terms of Par 4’s, this course has eleven of them with six having stroke average under par (Holes 1,5,10,14,15,16) and 5 having stroke average over par (Holes 2,3,7,9,11). The Par 4’s are the most critical on this course with the winner needing to capitalize on birdie opportunities. Hole 7 has had a new tee installed adding about 80 yards in length during the renovation. Even though it only is listed at 372, off the tee accuracy is key here. A lake lines the fairway on the left while the right is very tight with the out of bounds stakes close on the right. The green is also surrounded by bunkers making a difficult approach shot. Speaking of difficult approach shots, Hole 14 has one of the most challenging ones on the course. The green is close to the water that usually has a cross wind that pushes the ball in that direction.
TPC Twin Cities has three Par 5’s with all three playing under stroke average under par (Holes 6,12,18). Hole 6 is a Par 5 as mentioned, that plays nearly 600 yards. While most of the long hitters can reach the green in two, it is very challenging to do so as the green is surrounded by bunkers on the right and water on the left. Hole 18 is also an interesting hole with players having to decide how risky they want to be off the tee in terms of going over the lake. As if the lake wasn’t a challenge enough, the fairway is lined with bunkers on the opposite placing an emphasis on driving accuracy here. TPC Twin Cities is generally regarded as one of the easier courses on tour, with the past three winners coming in at -15, -19, and -21.
This course also features pure bentgrass greens which is quite unusual and will cause the ball to roll a bit quicker than players are used to. This makes calculating the distance on approach shots even more critical. TPC Twin Cities is at 900 feet of elevation, and with thinner air, it will also cause the ball to fly a bit further.
Featured Holes: #6, #7, #9, #14
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
Approaches from 175-200 yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Tony Finau (+1400) is the favorite this week at TPC Twin Cities. Last week, he finished T28 at the Open Championship shooting a 66 in the final round. He’s been playing some great golf as of late making the cut eight of his last nine starts dating back to the Masters. Finau has yet to win on Tout this season but did finish runner-up at the Mexico Open and RBC Canadian Open. In terms of event history, he’s finished T23/T3/T28 in his three appearances.
Sungjae Im (+1800) hasn’t been in the best form as of late, missing the cut in two of his last three Tour starts. The lone event where he did make the cut, was last week at The Open Championship finishing T81. Before he missed the cut at the U.S. Open and Genesis Scottish Open, he placed inside the top-21 in five consecutive tournaments. Im last played at TPC Twin Cities back in 219 where he finished T15.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) is one of several players making the trip to Minnesota from St. Andrews. Last week he finished T68 with a 67 in the final round. Before The Open Championship, he missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and finished 4th the U.S. Open. He last played in this event in 2019 placing T7. The rumors of Matsuyama to the LIV Tour continue to increase so I wouldn’t be surprised if he withdraws from the field and makes the official announcement.
Maverick McNealy (+2200) is one of the players this week that certainly looks like he’s trending towards a win. In his last three events, he finished T8 (John Deere Classic), T16 (Genesis Scottish Open), and T9 (Barracuda Championship). McNealy made his debut in this event last year where he placed T16.
Adam Hadwin (+2500) comes into TPC Twin Cities off a missed cut at the John Deere Classic. That was his first missed cut in his last five starts on Tour. In those four events, where he did make the weekend he finished T71/T18/T35/T7. In terms of event history, there’s not another guy in the field this week who’s had two top-10 finishes. Hadwin finished T4 in 2019, did not play here in 2020, then finished T6 in 2021.
Previous winners in the field; Cameron Champ (2021), Michael Thompson (2020)
Notable Withdraws: Mark Hubbard, Erik van Rooyen, Charles Howell III, Lanto Griffin, Chad Ramey, Brandt Snedeker, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
Price: 150-1
2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
Price: 125-1
2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)
Price: 175-1
Picks (Outright):
Headed to Dublin then London so I didn’t have time to do a full writeup on all of my selections this week. Should hopefully be back to normal next week.
Brendan Steele (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Nick Hardy (+4500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Austin Smotherman (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Troy Merritt (+8000) – Caesars
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Doug Ghim (+8000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Lucas Glover (+10000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.79 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Adam Hadwin (+140) – Caesars
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
I mentioned Adam Hadwin before in this article and given his course history, it’s hard to pass him up at this number. He comes into TPC Twin Cities off a missed cut at the John Deere Classic. That was his first missed cut in his last five starts on Tour. In those four events, where he did make the weekend he finished T71/T18/T35/T7. In terms of event history, there’s not another guy in the field this week who’s had two top-10 finishes. Hadwin finished T4 in 2019, did not play here in 2020, then finished T6 in 2021.
While TPC Twin Cities has been known as a bombers paradise in the past, accuracy off the tee is crucial as water comes into play most holes. Hadwin isn’t long off the tee ranking 120th but, makes up for it with accuracy ranking 46th. His iron play has been good with him really exceling around the green. We know this event comes down to putting and in his two previous starts at the 3M Open, he’s gained over a stroke on the green each time.
Cam Davis (+160) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Cam Davis comes into the 3M Open in great form. He’s made the cut in each of his last six starts on Tour and has finished inside the top-10 in his last three of those events. He’s played in all three editions of the 3M Open finishing MC/T12/T28.
In terms of the bomber narrative, Cam Davis fit’s it nicely. He averages over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 71st in strokes gained. Where Cam struggles is his short game which includes his putting. As of late, his putting has been much better gaining strokes in six of his last seven events (where SG Data has been tracked). His play around the green is still a little iffy but luckily for us, it’s not a key stat this week. Given his recent form and his course history, Cam Davis should be able to place inside the top-20 this week.
Total Risk on Top-20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Michael Gligic (+125) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Michael Gligic has made the cut in each of his last eight starts on Tour. During that span, he has finished inside the top-40 in seven of those eight events. He made his debut at this event back in 2020 where he finished T26 and followed that up with a T49 last year.
He’s not one of the longer hitters on Tour but isn’t short by any means. Despite the “lack of length” off the tee, he ranks T40 in Par 5 Scoring. We’ve seen him struggle on the green earlier this year but in each of his past three starts, he’s gained strokes putting. In addition to his putting, his approach play has gotten more consistent. It’s an easier course this week that we’ve seen suits him well in the past (TPC Deere Run).
Callum Tarren (+160) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Most people probably heard about him from the first round of the U.S. Open where he was T2. He would go on to finish T31 at the Country Club. Callum Tarren isn’t the epitome of consistency making the cut in three of his last six events. However, when he does make the cut he has finished T31 or better in those events. He will be making his debut at TPC Twin Cities.
In terms of distance off the tee he ranks 20th on Tour averaging over 310 yards on his drives. His putting wasn’t great earlier this year but he has gained strokes on the green five of his last eight events. Overall, his iron play has improved both around the green and on approach. We saw him do well on some of the easier courses so I expect a similar result this week.
Total Risk on Top-40s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the 3M Open: 4.79 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
It’s another edition of Laying the Points, the SUMMER SERIES, as we look to educate and inform bettors on the strategies we use to handicap the NBA and NFL. Chris also gives a free WNBA pick; he’s 3-0 in his last 3 WNBA plays! Check out the pod now!
Sticking with our WNBA picks below and adding one foreign basketball play. Thankfully, we’re less than a month away from preseason NFL action. God help us.
Foreign Basketball, 7.19:
Hong Kong Championship – Eastern Long Lions vs. Fukien (+15.5)
Fukien +15.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
In my experience betting foreign ball, these playoff lines are typically way too inflated. The other game in the same league is proving that point right now – double digit underdog Nam Ching has kept it close all game against Eagle, even though they were double digit dogs entering this contest. I’ll take a shot on the home dog to cover in a big game. This contest starts in about 30 minutes, so get your bet in now if you like it, too.
WNBA Bets, 7.19:
Dream +11.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Dream proved how feisty they can be in an outright win last night on the road in Phoenix. Now they have a short drive to Vegas tomorrow to take on the WNBA’s best unit, sure, but Atlanta should not be a double-digit underdog. Auto-bet on a very competitive team who should be extra motivated by the chance to prove they can hang with the big dog. They lost by 23 points back in early May at the start of the season; nice revenge spot, too.
Fever/Sparks under 163.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Fever under 78 points or more, to win 1 unit
We’re not seeing the second bet out yet, but should be around 78. Sure, this could be one of those games where these two lowly teams both go off and score a ton of buckets since the rest of their season doesn’t really matter and this is more of an exercise or practice. But the probability is that an under will hit. The Fever had lost 9 straight and in those 9 losses, they’ve only scored 72.6 ppg. Indiana has all but given up and although the Sparks technically still have a shot, I don’t think it’ll take much to get them there. Under and under.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
No premiums for today, obviously, and I’m not betting on the HR derby, sorry not sorry, but here’s some future lines I like in the WNBA. That’s starting to go well, huh? Let’s go!
WNBA Bets, 7.19:
Dream +11.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Dream proved how feisty they can be in an outright win last night on the road in Phoenix. Now they have a short drive to Vegas tomorrow to take on the WNBA’s best unit, sure, but Atlanta should not be a double-digit underdog. Auto-bet on a very competitive team who should be extra motivated by the chance to prove they can hang with the big dog. They lost by 23 points back in early May at the start of the season; nice revenge spot, too.
Fever/Sparks under 163.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Fever under 78 points or more, to win 1 unit
We’re not seeing the second bet out yet, but should be around 78. Sure, this could be one of those games where these two lowly teams both go off and score a ton of buckets since the rest of their season doesn’t really matter and this is more of an exercise or practice. But the probability is that an under will hit. The Fever had lost 9 straight and in those 9 losses, they’ve only scored 72.6 ppg. Indiana has all but given up and although the Sparks technically still have a shot, I don’t think it’ll take much to get them there. Under and under.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
Sunday card has our WNBA Game of the year and an Executive Level tier 1 MLB TOP play headlining the card.
The MLB Comp play is on the NY. Mets at 2:10 eastern. The Mets keep finding ways to win and have won 3 straight here at Wrigley. Today they go for the sweep and we note that Pre Break Sunday road favorites are perfect since 2004 if they are off 3 straight road favored wins. Peterson for the Mets has been solid and has a 2.84 road Era on the year and is undefeated with a 2.08 Era in Day starts. He has better overall numbers than Sampson for the Cubs. With Chicago a lousy 5-22 vs .600 or better opponents. We will back the Mets here. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Turns out I do have a few thoughts for today and I ain’t taking off. Sundays are for resting, eating, and watching sports. LET’S GO!
MLB Picks:
Yankees first five -1 (+115), to win 1.15 units
Yea I’m just not sure Chris Sale is ready. Recent reports of his frustration in practice have been well documented and when it’s your first game back after a long break against THIS Yankee team, yeaaaa I can’t favor the underdog, especially not in the first half of the game. Gerrit Cole has been very solid lately, except in his last start against the Sox, where he allowed 5 runs in six innings. Love the Yankees early.
Nats under…. anything 3.5 or more, to win 1 unit
Spencer Strider is continually proving that he has an elite repertoire. The Nats are crumbling and willing to give up their best hitters (Soto), apparently, so the spirit in DC can’t be too high and I think the scoring will be even lower for the home team today. After we hit an over, this is a good time for regression, too.
A Sunday Send It Parlay
Yankees/Orioles/Mariners/Giants, 1 unit to win 9.23 units
WNBA Picks:
Aces/Sun under 174.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This should be a very competitive battle between two teams at the top of their respective conferences. The last two games went way over this total, but the line implies both teams are way overdue to show some better defense, especially as the regular season nears a close. I’ll take the under.
Mystics 1H -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Well here I go betting more than one unit on a new sport for me but I really like this angle. Minnesota has been in really tough scenarios now, on the road, and it’s their 4th game in 5 days. Washington had 3 days off after an unfortunate loss and they’re a very formidable offense. I think they easily take the first half – more energy.
Lean, Fever +14
This just feels like a big line for such a low-scoring sport, especially since most teams probably play down to Indiana a little in these situations. They know they should never lose to the Fever. Just a lean because sharper WNBA minds think this line is right, but my instinct tells me it’s still way too many points.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
We started the weekend off with a perfect 3-0, +3u night. My MLB record for the year moves up to 105-98-3, +3.94u. I’m rolling with 4 plays here on Saturday looking to keep things rolling. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-120) vs Reds–1:15 PM CT
The Cardinals didn’t get off to the best start in the month of July, but this lineup has scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Today, they’ll settle into a role they’ve excelled in all year.
Facing left-handed pitching at Busch Stadium this year, the Cardinals rank 5th in baseball with a 133 wRC+. Since June 1st, that number jumps all the way up to 154. They’ll get a favorable matchup facing off against Reds SP Nick Lodolo, an arm that has made just 5 starts at the big league level. In addition to that, Lodolo threw just 82 innings at the Minor League level before being called up. Sure, he was a first round pick a few years ago, but this is clearly not an arm that’s developed enough to be pitching at this level. Don’t take my word for it, just look at his 1.60 WHIP. In any case, this is a tough matchup for Lodolo, and I certainly give the edge to the Cardinals offense.
As insurance, this full game TT allows us to take advantage of the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati’s pen ranks 29th in the league in bullpen WHIP and has been an easy unit to go against all year.
*MLB(1u): Mariners F5 TT OVER 2.5(+105) @ Rangers–3:05 PM CT
The Mariners have won 12 straight games and are currently the hottest team in baseball. Even with that as a side note(which it shouldn’t be), today presents an extremely favorable matchup.
Rangers SP Spencer Howard was a promising prospect, but he has faltered consistently at the big league level. Approaching 100 innings in the big leagues, Howard holds an ugly 7.13 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He’s allowed 2 HR/9 innings in his big league career, and in his last start against the A’s, he recorded just 1 strikeout in 5 IP. The Mariners have seen righties well this year, ranking 7th in wRC+ in that role. And, like I said, this is the hottest team in baseball right now.
Why exactly are we getting this at plus-money?
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(+105) vs Brewers–6:15 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Cobb might hold a 4.57 ERA, but his FIP at 3.14 is much more indicative of the type of pitcher he can be at Oracle Park. Pitching at Angel Stadium last year, Cobb held a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Considering his GB/FB rate sits at 3.66 here in 2022, I would expect his numbers in San Francisco to mirror that before this season is said and done. I like how Cobb’s ground-ball style plays against a hit-or-miss Brewers lineup. The Brewers face quite a few mediocre righties in their division(Pirates and Cubs, specifically) that prop up their overall numbers; I’m not expecting them to adjust to this matchup well.
Brewers SP Eric Lauer has pitched well at home this year, but he has not had the same luck on the road. This year, Lauer holds a 5.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP away from American Family Field and is allowing 2.3 HR/9 in this role. Considering he held a 1.7 HR/9 on the road last year, it’s clear this is not Lauer’s role. He’ll have to face off against a Giants lineup that ranks 1st in wRC+ vs lefties at home this season. The Giants also scored 6 runs in the 9th off of lefty Josh Hader last night; I like that momentum to carry over into today.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-120) @ Angels–9:07 PM CT
We backed Clayton Kershaw in this matchup last night, and all he did was take a perfect game into the 8th inning. While Julio Urias might not be at Clayton Kershaw’s status, he’ll still enjoy the same luxuries Kershaw did last night. After last night, the Angels officially rank dead last in wRC+ vs lefties since June 1st. Mike Trout is still likely to be out again, so what’s going to change tonight in another tough matchup? Urias holds a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year and has seen no real dip in performance on the road throughout his career.
The Dodgers also took care of business at the plate last night, totaling 12 hits and 9 runs in the blowout win. They’ll face another lefty tonight in Jose Suarez, who is perhaps even more vulnerable than Patrick Sandoval was last night. With a WHIP at 1.52, I have zero trust in Suarez going against this Dodgers lineup.
By nature of winning in a blowout, the Dodgers saved all of their important bullpen arms last night. With that unit fresh, I’m willing to make this a full game run-line play.
The Saturday card is loaded with the MLB Pre Break Game of the Year with a 25-1 System, and 2 Perfect Canadian Football league systems a a side and a total. We also have UFC Main event , MLS Platinum Supreme Soccer and more. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play is on San Francisco at 7:15 eastern. We are playing against the Brewers here as they are in a road dog system that is 3-17 for road dogs off a road favored loss while scoring 5 or more vs a team off a home dog win scoring 8 or more in Non Division game where the total is 8 or less. The Brewers have dropped 5 of 7 on Saturdays of late. The Giants are 6-0 art home vs a lefty and they will see Lauer and his 5.24 road Era tonight. Lauer has allowed 5+ hits in 7 of his last 8 starts. Cobb for the Giants has allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Look for the Giants to win. On Saturday we have our MLB 25-1 Pre Break Game of the Year, 4-1 last 5 years and 2 Undefeated CFL Plays along with Soccer and UFC Main even headlining. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we have a big day/night card up now. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Giants. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
