Happy Thirsty, people! That WNBA loss was completely bogus – The Sun allowed 35 points in the 4th after leading by double digits the entire contest, up by 20 at one point, and they allowed a bevy of points in the final few minutes. Dumb.
MLB treated us well on hump day, though of course the gambling gods couldn’t allow a perfect day and apparently injected some submissive-poison into the minds of the Padres to prevent our parlay. What happened? San Diego looked in full control. I reckon that’s Denver for ya.
Back at it with some CFL finally upon us; added a CFL total in red, too. I’ll look for more props in MLB as well, that was fun. No promises, though.
MLB Picks:
Marlins -1.5 (+125), to win 1.25 units
The Marlins are struggling to stay in the playoff race and need wins as much as any ballclub. Somehow they managed to lose 2 games to Pittsburgh at home, so they need to take advantage of this opportunity against Zach Thompson (5.15 xERA, 1.84 HR/9 innings). There’s little about Thompson that should scare any team away and he’s due for some negative regression after some decent performance in recent weeks. The real Thompson has a pedestrian fastball and little command– Miami by margin.
Padres ML (-140), to win 1 unit
I know it’s tough to go right back to a team that’s just disappointed but like the Marlins, the Padres can’t piddle-paddle around and expect to be in the postseason with finishes like that last night. Snell, who has a xERA of 3.41, a good 1.2 points under his actual ERA which means he’s been subject to some bad luck, can hold up his squad well; even in Denver. Kyle Freeland is Kyle Freeland, nothing much to get excited about there, and he’s even worse at home (5.23 ERA). I’ll bet on San Diego to take this one.
Mariners (-105), to win 1.5 units
The Mariners are white hot and have now won 10 in a row. Not overthinking it – they’ve scored 4.7 runs per game during this span and even in a tough spot on the road against Texas’ best pitcher, I trust the bats and defense of Seattle. We get value with this deflated line, too. They’ve figured something out there in the Northwest.
Brewers/Giants under 6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen this story before. Two of the league’s best pitchers and the total is extra low and in our heads we try to manage a perspective where betting on the over is the call when in actuality, we know that these two teams haven’t been impressive at all behind their bats and it’s the aces that’ll control this showdown. Under.
CFL Picks, Week 6:
Montreal vs. Edmonton (+9), Thursday
Under 50.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Edmonton +9 (-105), to win 1 unit
Here’s the thing – not only is Edmonton the worst team in CFL, by far apparently, and Montreal isn’t far behind. The Alhouettes do have one thing going for them, however, and that’s their defense. Montreal is top 3 on defense in two categories that really matter, opponent net offense and yards per play. The pedestrian Edmonton offense shouldn’t be able to do much, but they’re also terribly desperate. They haven’t won a single game so far this season so I expect them to try as hard as humanly possible, but imagining a ton of points seems rather far-fetched. A closer game than people think, I like the under and the underdog.
Calgary vs. Winnipeg (-3), Friday
Total over 48.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Total over 47.5, (-110), to win 1.5 units
Two of the most explosive offenses in the CFL, Winnipeg is the favorite to win it all for good reason and a lot of that is because of their defense. Calgary would love to challenge that Friday. The Blue Bombers are capable of sticking with any team and it’s likely that the Stampeders will show up big time on the ground. Calgary’s Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best rushers in Canada and if the away team can punch Winnipeg in the mouth early and open up the pass, points won’t be limited in this contest. Like the over.
WNBA Pick:
Chicago Sky -4 (-110), to win 1 unit
We missed the best line on this but we still have to take it. The Sky could easily argue that they only have 1 legitimate loss this season. Vegas beat them earlier in late Spring but since, it’s all been hokey no-shows and a bit of luck from less talented teams. The Sparks don’t have the defense to stop one of association’s best offenses and if the Sparks’ performance after the break against the Mystics was any indication, they don’t look any different and they likely won’t in this game either. In other words, they still suck and they’re giving up on their season. I think the Sky will win by a big margin.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
This is actually + money at most books but since it’s hard for me to know what every book offers, I’ll call it even. Ohtani is on a tear, snagging at least 10 strikeouts in each of the last 3 games. When Ohtani is in the zone, even the best bats struggle with his confidence and command. The Astros are one of the harder lineups to have the same success against but at home and at a fair line, I’ll take the over for 2 units.
Stanton 1+ HR (+185), 1 unit
Stanton has 4 HRs, is batting .304 with a .870 slug rate in 23 at bats against Mike Minor. For this price, I feel obligated to play this again.
Despite dropping my multiunit play last night, we managed to finish 2-1, +0.43u on the night. That brings my 2022 MLB record to 101-96-3, +1.99u. There are some really good matchups on today’s slate, but I kept it simple and am rolling with just 1 play for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins F5 -0.5(-115) vs Pirates–5:40 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has blossomed into an All Star and potentially Cy Young caliber arm right before our eyes. He holds a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.00 on the season; at home, that WHIP drops to 0.98 with a brilliant ERA at 2.41. He delivered 5 innings of 1 run ball in a tough road start against the Mets his last time out, and today presents a much more favorable opponent. Facing righties on the road this year, the Pirates rank a measly 26th in the league with a 78 wRC+. While the Pirates lineup has fared better here in July than they did at many other parts of the season, this is still a lineup that is going to be undermanned when facing an arm like Lopez. In just this month alone, the Pirates have been held to 0-1 runs on 3 separate occasions.
Pirates SP JT Brubaker is a pretty easy guy to go against considering he holds a WHIP at 1.47. I’d argue that he’s gotten lucky to skate by with a 4.34 ERA despite flirting with more trouble. In any case, Brubaker has always struggled away from PNC Park. Last year, he held a 6.78 ERA and 1.46 WHIP away from home, and his WHIP actually jumps to 1.48 on the road here in 2022. The Marlins’ lineup is not in great current form, and a large part of that is due to being without 2 key bats in Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler. With that said, I deem this the most favorable matchup they’ve been dealt in this series, and this is a role they’ve actually excelled in throughout the year. Facing righties at home, the Marlins rank 3rd in the league with a 120 wRC+.
I don’t think this number does this pitching mismatch justice. Pablo Lopez has excelled at an even greater level at home, while Brubaker has consistently been shelled on the road.
Anyone tracking my MLB leans? Because those are working out pretty well. Too bad they don’t matter for shit. In other news, I guess I should have listened to the many friends and fellow bettors who told me to handicap WNBA in the summer. After talking with Kate Constable, it’s evident there’s plenty to expose in an unproven market – I’ll try my hand at it for the rest of the season before the NFL but tread carefully. Anything more than a 1 unit play is unlikely.
Onto hump day!
MLB Picks:
Braves/Mets over 7.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
There’s a reason this is juiced to the over. Sharps are moving this up because both of these potent offenses are overdue. Each exchanged sharp defensive outings behind two stud pitchers, but it’s about time the lineups explode. Bassit and Morton, when at the top of their game, are still two very formidable aces in the majors. But they haven’t been at the top of their games this season. This showdown sets up for a battle of bats and we’ll play on the over accordingly.
Dodgers/Padres ML Parlay, 1 unit to win 1.67 units
Remember when I bet the wrong side in the Padres/Rockies series twice? Same. Baseball. I like this situation better. Gonsolin and Musgrove against Wainwright and the Cards and Kuhl and the Rockies? Byeeeee
CFL Picks, Week 6:
Montreal vs. Edmonton (+9), Thursday
Under 50.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Edmonton +9 (-105), to win 1 unit
Here’s the thing – not only is Edmonton the worst team in CFL, by far apparently, and Montreal isn’t far behind. The Alhouettes do have one thing going for them, however, and that’s their defense. Montreal is top 3 on defense in two categories that really matter, opponent net offense and yards per play. The pedestrian Edmonton offense shouldn’t be able to do much, but they’re also terribly desperate. They haven’t won a single game so far this season so I expect them to try as hard as humanly possible, but imagining a ton of points seems rather far-fetched. A closer game than people think, I like the under and the underdog.
Calgary vs. Winnipeg (-3), Friday
Total over 48.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Two of the most explosive offenses in CFL, Winnipeg is the favorite to win it all for good reason and a lot of that is because of their defense. Calgary would love to challenge that Friday. The Blue Bombers are capable of sticking with any team and it’s likely that the Stampeders will show up big time on the ground. Calgary’s Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best rushers in Canada and if the away team can punch Winnipeg in the mouth early and open up the pass, points won’t be limited in this contest. Like the over.
WNBA Pick:
Sun -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Sun have destroyed the Fever all season, winning 3 straight by an average margin of 16.7 points in those contests. Normally you might pick the underdog in this situation, at home, after the All-Star break, but I think the talent disparity is just too rich. The Sun are bigger, considerably better on offense, and they’re chasing a nice seed in the WNBA playoffs. The Fever are 2-12 in their conference and in last-place in WNBA standings for a reason. Sun put a lickin’ on the Fever tonight and cover by double digits, in our humble opinions. It helps that Kate Constable agrees.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is back from vacation and goes solo to talk about the AFC East and West previews along with the UFC. First, Kiev talks about his free UFC class that he is teaching Thursday at 6PM ET over @SportswagerU. The fundamentals of betting MMA. Next, Kiev gets into why betting should be treated as a market and plays need to be made at opportune times. Then, Kiev talks some AFC East and West previews with some plays and some leans. Which teams will have positive and which teams will have some negative regression? There is also a few FREE plays in there. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC for the weekend with some plays that he has already made. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
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We head to the birthplace of golf for the final major-championship. This year marks the 150th edition of the Open Championship. The Old Course at St. Andrews will host its 29th Open Championship making it the most of any course. This will be the first time since 2015 that the Open Championship will be held here.
In 2015, Zach Johnson defeated Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a four-hole playoff to capture his second major title. Louis Oosthuizen had won his only major title here in 2010. Rory McIlroy was the defending champion and withdrew prior to the start that year due to an off-course ankle injury. He was the first defending champion absent from the Open in over sixty years.
As the tensions between the PGA Tour and LIV Tour continue to rise, those players who joined the new Saudi-backed Tour, will be allowed to play in the Open Championship. That list of players includes; Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Talor Gooch, Sergio Garcia, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, and Phil Mickelson.
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 14th, 2022 – June 17th, 2022
Location: St. Andrews, Fife, Scotland
Course: Old Course at St. Andrews
Course Type: Links
Par: 72 (2x 3’s / 14x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,313 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 70 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Fescue (50%), Brown Top Bentgrass (25%), Poa Annua (10%), Other (15%)
Fairways: Fescue and Bentgrass
Rough: Fescue, Bentgrass, Sweet Vernal Grass and Crested Dogstail 1.65″
The Open Championship, also known as the British Open, is the oldest golf tournament in the world. It is the final major-championship of the year. The first Open Championship was held in 1860 at Prestwick Golf Club in Scotland. It was held over three twelve-hole rounds.
The venue is rotated between a select group of coastal links golf courses in the United Kingdom. A total of 14 courses have hosted this prestigious event with ten currently active as part of the rotation. Prestwick Golf Club, Musselburgh Links, Royal Cinque Ports Golf Club, and Price’s Golf Club are the four courses that have been removed.
This year, St. Andrew’s will host the Open Championship for the 29th time, more than any other course. It was first held here back in 1873 and starting in 1990 has hosted the event every five years. In 2020, St. Andrew’s was supposed to be the host course but due to the pandemic, the Open Championship was not played.
The Old Course at St. Andrew’s is considered the oldest golf course in the world. Originally, it was not known as the “Old Course” but, with the addition of the New Course in 1895, it got it’s current name.
In 1764, the course had 22 holes but was then changed to 18 as they decided the first four and last four holes were too short and should be combined into four total holes.
Around 1863, Old Tom Morris over-saw a renovation which produced the current 18-hole layout.
Until 2016, the purse was paid in pounds sterling but in 2017 it was changed to US dollars. This rendition of the Open Championship will have the largest purse ever offered. The overall purse has increased $2 million dollars to $14 million and the winners share is now $2.5 million from the $2 million that was offered in 2021. In addition to the prize money, the winner also receives the claret jug which is a tradition that was started in 1873.
Most tournament wins: 6, Harry Vardon (1896, 1898, 1899, 1903, 1911, 1914)
72-Hole Record: 264, Henrik Stenson (2016 at Royal Troon)
18-Hole Record: 62, Branden Grace (3rd round, 2017 at Royal Birkdale)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Old Course at St. Andrew’s is a Par 72 that plays 7,313 yards. It features a unique set up of two Par 3’s, fourteen Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. While the yardage has increased from the last time we saw the Open Championship held here, the course itself players much shorter than the yardage posted. The wide fairways allow players to be aggressive on their first shot. However, accuracy off the tee shouldn’t be discounted as players must avoid those fairway pot bunkers.
St. Andrew’s is one of those iconic courses that’s truly hard to compare to any other course. The course has double-wide fairways and greens that make it a one-of-a-kind layout. As always, the forecast is the deciding factor for how low these players can go this week. It looks as through the wind won’t be too over bearing with rain only coming into play a few days.
For the two Par 3’s, they range between 175* and 200 yards. While Hole No. 11 is technically 174 yards, I’ve rounded up a yard to group them into the same category; Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards.
Hole 8 is the longest of the two Par 3’s playing 187 yards. It’s downhill with a shared green with Hole 10. Depending on the wind, the putting surface can be extremely difficult to hold.
Hole 11 is the other Par 3 on the Old Course that again varies in difficulty depending on the wind. Bunkers protect the greens with a steep run-off on the back.
Just like the Par 3’s, there’s only two Par 5’s on the Old Course. Hole 5 is the shortest of the two playing 570 yards. Given how the fairways are rolling, players should have a fairly short approach shot into the green. In order to succeed here, players must take advantage of this scoring opportunity.
Hole 14 measures over 600 yards and requires players to make a decision off the tee. Most will choose the left as it’s a safer player. However, if players decide to go right, they can be rewarded with an easier second shot.
Hole 18 is short Par 4 that is one of the most iconic holes in all of golf. Players will try to play it up the right side with their target varying depending on the wind. Once they hit their tee-shot they’ll cross the world famous Swilcan Bridge. This bridge was built over 700 years ago so shepherds could move their flock. Now it’s most known as the backdrop for some of the most iconic pictures in golf.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
PAR
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
3
4
36
YARDAGE
375
452
398
480
570
414
371
187
352
3,599
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
OUT
PAR
4
3
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
36
YARDAGE
386
174
351
465
614
455
418
495
356
3,714
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting
Driving Distance
Scrambling
Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Rory McIlroy (+1000), is the favorite this week for a reason. Since the Masters, where he finished 2nd, Rory has yet to finish outside the top-20 in his six other starts. During that span, he won the RBC Canadian Open, placed 8th at the PGA Championship and finished T5 at the U.S. Open. Rory has played in the Open Championship twelve times. He won in 2014 and has finished inside the top-5 in four other appearances.
Xander Schauffele (+1600), is the hottest golfer on Tour right now. He won the Travelers Championship then followed that up with a victory at the co-sanctioned Scottish Open. Xander won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Patrick Cantlay back in April and has yet to finish outside the top-20 in any start since then. He missed the Cut at the Masters in the first major-championship of the year but finished T13 at the PGA Championship and T14 at the U.S. Open. Xander’s best finish at an Open Championship was in 2018 when he was runner-up. In his three other appearances, he’s finished 20th, 41st, and 26th.
Jon Rahm (+1800), has fallen to 3rd in the OWGR after only winning one tournament this year (Mexico Open). In major-championships this year, Rahm finished T27 at the Masters T48 at the PGA Championship, and T12 at the U.S. Open. Rahm’s best finish in an Open Championship was last year when he finished T3. In his four other appearances, he’s missed the cut once and finished 59th ,44th , and 11th.
Jordan Spieth (+1800), seems to have found his form in the second half of the season. He won the RBC Heritage and followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the AT&T Byron Nelson. In his six starts since then, he’s made the cut in five of six and when making the cut, he’s finished inside the top-40 in those events. In major-championships this year, he missed the cut at the Masters, finished T34 at the PGA Championship and T37 in the U.S. Open. Spieth has played in The Open eight times in his career, winning in 2017 and finishing inside the top-10 in three additional times. One of those top-10 finishes was in 2015 when the Open Championship was last held at St. Andrew’s.
Scottie Scheffler (+1800), won the Masters earlier this year and finished T2 at the U.S. Open last month. Including his victory at Augusta, he’s won won tournaments this year. Coming into The Open, he missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week but finished T18 or better in his four starts prior. Last year Scottie Scheffler placed T8 in his Open debut.
Other previous Open Championship winners in the field; Collin Morikawa (21′), Shane Lowry (’19), Zach Johnson (’15), Phil Mickelson (’13), Louis Oosthuizen (’10), Tiger Woods (06′, 05′ 00′), and John Daly (95′).
Notable Withdraws: None
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Trends/ Fun Facts:
All three of the major-championship winners this year have finished T8 or better in their previous major appearance:
M. Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open) – T5 at the PGA Championship
J. Thomas (PGA Championship) – T8 at the Masters
S. Scheffler (Masters) – T8 at the Open Championship (2021)
Dating back to 2013, the last eight Open Championship winners had an OWGR inside the top 25. Shane Lowry was the only outlier in 2019 (33rd).
Dating back to 2010, nine of the last eleven Open Championship winners had recorded a top-10 finish in this event. The two outliers were Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 and Collin Morikawa in 2021.
Only 15 golfers have won The Open and a second Major in the same year. The last player to do so was Rory McIlroy in 2015 when he won The Open along with the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler (Masters), Justin Thomas (PGA Championship), and Matthew Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open) are looking to join that club this week.
Xander Schauffele will look to win his third consecutive PGA Tour event this week. The last player to do so was Dustin Johnson back in 2017 (Genesis Open, WGC – Mexico, WGC- Dell Technologies Match Play).
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15) – Royal St. George’s Golf Course
Price: 40-1
2019: Shane Lowry (-15) – Royal Portrush Golf Club
Price: 70-1
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8) – Carnoustie Championship Course
Price: 33-1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) – Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Price: 16-1
2016: Henrik Stenson (-20) – Royal Troon Golf Club
Price: 33-1
2015: Zach Johnson (-15) – Old Course at St. Andrews
Price: 110-1
Picks (Outright):
Jordan Spieth (+1800) – BetMGM
Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Spieth won the Open Championship back in 2017 and finished T4 in 2015 at St. Andrew’s. In terms of links players on Tour, he ranks near the top. In his eight Open Championship appearances, he has never finished worse than T44. Since his win at the RBC Heritage back in April, he’s been playing some great golf. In his seven Tour starts following that win, he has made the cut six times and finished inside the top-20 in four of those events. Last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, he placed T10. When looking at the path to success of past Open Championship winners, Spieth seems to be on it. His downside has always been his putting but he’s gained strokes in that category in four of his last five starts. In the lone event he lost strokes (U.S. Open), he only lost -0.12 strokes. Jordan seems to be back on the upswing and what better way to fully announce he’s back with a win at the birthplace of golf.
Justin Thomas (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
JT won the PGA Championship earlier this season defeating Will Zalatoris in a playoff. As we all saw it was Mito’s tournament to win but after a botched tee shot on 18, he played himself out of contention. Last week at the Genesis Scottish Open he struggled shooting 73-33 failing to make the cut. Prior to that, he finished T37 at the U.S. Open and 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open. In the past, he’s failed to record a top-10 finish at the Open Championship in his five appearances. His best finished was T11 in 2019 at Royal Portrush Golf Club. In terms of key stats this week, JT ranks very highly in most of those categories. While he hasn’t had great finishes in the past at Open Championships, I feel like he could finally break through this week given his play this year.
Patrick Cantlay (+2500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.33 to win 8.00 Units
Patrick Cantlay won the FedEx Cup Playoffs last year and has had a bit of a downturn this season. His only win this season was with Xander in the Zurich Classic. Cantlay lost to Jordan Spieth in a playoff at the RBC Heritage and finished solo second at the WM Phoenix Open so he’s been close a few other times. In terms of Open Championship history, he’s finished 12/41/MC in his three appearances. This season, Cantlay has struggled most with his approach play ranking 72nd in strokes gained. That being said, his irons have been much better as of late gaining strokes in three of the past four events in that category. His putting has been lights out gaining over a stroke in three of the past four events as well. Even if his approach play struggles, he ranks well around the green and in scrambling so it should make up for it. He finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week so I’m hoping he can ride that momentum into this week and win his first Open Championship.
Brooks Koepka (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Brooks at 50-1 in a Major?? As everyone knows Brooks recently joined the LIV Tour and has not competed on the PGA Tour since the U.S. Open where he placed 55th. To be fair, Koepka hasn’t been playing some great golf as of late but as everyone knows, he does get up for the major-championships. In terms of Open Championship performances, Brooks has thrived in this event finishing 10/6/39/4/6 in his last five appearances. The 10th place finish was back in 2015 at St. Andrews. I know it’s a stretch given his form however it’s a hard number to pass up given his success at this major in the past.
Just Missed the List: Jon Rahm (18-1), Scottie Scheffler (18-1)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.31 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+100) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour lately. He captured his first career PGA Tour victory last month at the U.S. Open. In his last six starts, including the U.S. Open, he’s finished T2/T5/MC/T10/1/T6. He’s played in the Open several times before finishing 20th and 26th in the last two editions. Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top-25 in SG:OTT, SG:APP, SG:ATG, and SG:T2G. The lone outlier is SG: Putting where he ranks 35th. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in each of his last three starts.
Tony Finau (+210) – Caesars
Risk 1.00 to win 2.10 Units
Tony Finau has had success on links style courses in the past. In his five Open Championships he’s finished 18/27/9/3/15. He’s also been in great form as of late finishing T4/2/MC/T13 in his last four starts on Tour. Finau ranks very highly in most strokes gained categories besides putting. His play with the flat stick has been much better recently gaining strokes on the green in four of his last six tournaments. In his last Tour start at the Travelers, he lost 0.17 strokes on the green and still managed to finish T13.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Webb Simpson (+180) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
Is Webb Simpson the most consistent player on Tour right now? No. He’s missed the cut in two of his last five starts, two of his last three actually if you’re looking for a more recent sample size. Despite that, in events he has made the cut he’s finished T20/T27/T13. If we look at his recent performances in Open Championship’s he’s far more consistent. Dating back to 2015, which was held at St. Andrew’s, Webb has finished 40/39/37/12/30/19. He plays well on Links style courses and ranks well in a few key categories this week. Simpson ranks inside the top-100 in every strokes gained category with his specialty being his iron and wedge play. He’s not a great putter but, has gained strokes in that category in three of his last five rounds. If he can make the cut, he should be able to finish inside the top-40.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+190) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units
Dating back to the Masters, Christiaan Bezuidenhout has made the cut in six of his last eight starts on Tour. In those six events, he’s finished inside the top-40 in five of them. He finished T2 at the John Deere Classic then followed that up with a T16 at the Genesis Scottish Open. Bezuidenhout has only played in two Open Championships missing the cut in 2019, and placing T53 last year. The major weakness in his game has been his play around-the-green but, he ranks 5th in scrambling which has been a key stat for success. One encouraging sign is that he gained strokes around-the-green last week so I’m hoping he can continue that upward trend this week. He’s not long off the tee however his accuracy makes up for it. His putting has also been great lately gaining over a stroke in each of the past two tournaments.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on The Open: 5.31 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Time for a free WNBA pick! For the rest of the WNBA season, I’ll be posting free plays a few times a week so stay tuned for more. You can also check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok@kateconstable.
Sun – 8.5, 1 unit*
Throughout the first half of the season, the Indiana Fever have been the worst team in the league (5-19) and four days off for the All-Star break isn’t going to change that. The Fever lost six straight heading into the break by an average of 17.6 points. Connecticut Sun players Brionna Jones, Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas didn’t get quite as long of a break being they played in the ASG, but that won’t stop a Sun team that’s hungry to make a push for the top spot in the Eastern Conference with just a month left in the season.
Everything that the Sun does well, the Fever does poorly. For starters, Connecticut is both the best offensive rebounding team and the best overall rebounding team in the league. They also lead the league in second-chance points. The Sun outrebounded the Fever 41-29 the last time these two teams met, and I see that being the case again in this game. With Jonquel Jones 6’6” and Brionna Jones 6’3” the Fever are going to have a tough time keeping those two off the glass.
The Sun also leads the league in points off turnovers while the Fever rank dead last in opponent’s points off turnovers. Connecticut is active on the defensive end, forcing an average of 16.2 turnovers per game. Their perimeter defense will be especially important because Indiana guard Kelsey Mitchell is the engine that makes her team go. If the Sun can shut her down, or at least make life difficult for her, this should be an easy first win post ASG.
Despite struggling a bit heading into the All-Star break, I think we’ll see a Connecticut team that comes out ready to get back to their winning ways, setting the tone for the second half of the season. The Sun has balanced scoring and plays strong team basketball, something that the Fever needs to do more of. Lay the points with the Sun.
I like way too many games on Tuesday. There’s quite a bit of value on the board and today only, I’ll give them all out to you for free if you follow and direct message me on Twitter. You can sign up for all my plays here at Theoddsbreakers.com if you like what you see.
My Play today with analysis here @Theoddsbreakers is Game 2 between the White Sox and Indians at the Mistake on the Lake. Dylan Cease goes for the White Sox and Konnor Pilkington gets the ball for the Guardians.
Pilkington is due for a visit from the Regression Fairies. He is currently rocking at 4.08 ERA, but is only allowing 5.0% HR/FB which is well under league average. Line that up with his barrel rate which puts him in the bottom 5% of qualified pitchers and there’s disaster looming on the horizon. Why do I think it’s going to happen tonight? Well for one, the forecast has the winds dying down a bit for game 2 and shifting from blowing in to blowing across left to right. For two, if you haven’t heard me or any other capper say it before, the White Sox HAMMER lefties. They are currently hitting .288 vs left handed pitching and have a .798 OPS. Both of those are tops in MLB.
The Guardians strike out the least of any team in MLB and it isn’t even close. There is something to be said for plate discipline, but it won’t help them tonight against Dylan Cease. He is striking out over 13 batters per 9 IP, and while he still walks too many guys for my liking he is just dominating opposing teams right now. In his last 8 starts over 45+ innings he has allowed just 3 earned runs. (There was a clunker in there vs LAD but all 6 runs unearned) While the Guardians have a star in Jose Ramirez they are really struggling at the dish recently. In their last 20 games they are averaging just 3.4 runs per game and have been held to 3 or fewer runs 14 times.
I’m playing the White Sox F5 -165 for 1.5 Units. I don’t trust Cease to go deep due to pitch counts and I don’t trust the White Sox bullpen.
I just can’t see the Bears winning 7 games. Seven is a lot in a division with the Packers, an improving Lions team where every sharp NFL bettor I know likes them to go over in their wins, and the Vikings, a team that I’m bullish on their improvement this year under new coach Kevin O’Connell. The Bears just don’t have enough firepower on offense and without Mack, who they sent to the Chargers, this is one of the most talent-poor rosters in the NFL. Too much on Justin Fields’ shoulders.
Falcons under 4.5, 2 units
I think this team will be really, really bad, period. Defense, offense, coaching, etc, and there’s evidence that both Carolina and NO could be better than some think. Oh and then there’s Brady and Tampa Bay. UNDER. SAD.
Cowboys under 10.5, 1 unit There’s also evidence that the NFC East will be considerably better this year, especially when it comes to Philly. I’m buying the hype on the Eagles that, in the least, they won’t be an easy out as a contender to win the division, and my Giants, for what it’s worth, are showing a ton of buy-signs right now. Dallas typically stumbles late in the season, so don’t be afraid to take a mid-season under if this gets inflated.
Packers under 11.5, 1.5 units Here’s my thing about Green Bay. I realize they have an elite running game, elite defensive players, and arguably the best player in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers. But sometimes that’s not enough. The long, painstaking pattern of the Packers performing well in the regular season and then faltering in the playoffs is getting very old; for their players, coaches, fans, and staff. The Vikings should be much more competitive and the Lions might have some extra “feisty” in them this year with Dan Campbell coaching in season #2. The Packers could very likely win 11 games, but I have to anticipate an under.
Vikings over 8.5, 3 units I’ve talked about it already but yea, I like Minnesota more than usual. A new coach with great experience from LAR should reinvigorate a team that’s truly super talented in a lot of ways that matter – a QB that can get it done, a top 5 RB, a top 5 WR, and playmakers on defense. This is the year Minnesota gets very competitive, IMO.
Steelers over 7.5, 3 units Hey look, it’s the marketplace undervaluing Pittsburgh, AGAIN! We’ve seen Pittsburgh win consistently with far worse QBs than what they have this year, and I’m not so certain that Kenny Pickett is as pedestrian as people may think. Another top 5 defense, a tough-ass RB, and superior coaching = Ws. I realize how good the AFC North is, but that’s nothing new and all Tomlin does is execute winning seasons.
Jags over 6, -130 at BetOnline, to win 4 units
I’ve given this a ton of thought and now I’m pulling the trigger. Jacksonville has a VERY questionable division, the Titans will regress, the Texans aren’t scary, and the Colts are a giant mystery at this point. With one of the easier schedules in the NFL, Jacksonville has an adult in the room, new talent like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and don’t look now but Travis Etienne looks like he’s healthy and ready to take over the league. They have a young defense but they finally have an adult in the room in Douggy Pederson. We lost some initial value, but we’re still taking the Jags to go over 6.
I started out the week with a 2-0, +2.05u and now sit at 99-95-3, +1.56u on the MLB season! I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight, including my 4th multiunit play of the MLB season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Cubs F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Orioles–7:05 PM CT
While it’s been a disappointing season for the Cubbies, they return back home tonight in a role they’ve excelled in all season. Facing right-handed pitching at Wrigley Field this season, the Cubbies hold a 108 wRC+. While that’s not elite, they’ve certainly been steady enough in this role for me to trust them in tonight’s matchup.
Perhaps nobody has benefited from the Orioles pushing the walls at Camden Yards back more than Orioles SP Jordan Lyles. We’re halfway through the season, and Lyles has yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark. With that said, he hasn’t found that same luck on the road. Lyles is allowing 2 HR/9 innings on the road this season, and when you consider he allowed 2.1 HR/9 on the road last season, it’s easy to see this is not a fluke. In addition, Lyles holds an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his road starts this season.
I expect to see multiple balls leave the yard early in this game and for the Cubs to eclipse this F5 TT with relative ease. Let’s make it 3-1 on multiunit plays!
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+100) @ Royals–7:10 PM CT
The Tigers get a lot of hate from the baseball community(rightfully so), but how come the Royals get off scott-free despite holding the 2nd worst record in the American League? As I handicap this game, I see no reason the Tigers should be ‘dogs.
Royals SP Kris Bubic has had a disastrous 2022 campaign. When you consider he’s allowed nearly 11 hits/9 while simultaneously walking 6 batters/9, it’s not hard to see why he has some of the worst numbers among starting pitchers in the league(6.84 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). I’ve seen no reason to believe tonight is the night Bubic turns things around. While the Tigers’ offense has been piss poor overall this season, they’ve surprisingly been good in this role. Against left-handed pitching on the road, the Tigers rank 11th with a 104 wRC+. That’s only above average, but they match up far better with Bubic than this line would indicate.
Tigers SP Beau Breiske has impressed me this season. While his 4.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP don’t jump out, Brieske has shined in some of his toughest road starts. He recorded quality starts in both Houston and New York(Yankees), and in his last start, he twirled 6.1 shutout innings in Chicago(White Sox), only allowing 3 baserunners. This is quite frankly a dream matchup for Breiske, as the Royals rank just 28th in wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark this season. Additionally, the Royals just lost their iron man Whit Merrifield, making an already weak lineup even weaker.
There is also a MASSIVE bullpen discrepancy in this matchup. The Royals rank dead last in MLB with a 1.51 bullpen WHIP. On the other hand, Detroit’s bullpen has been strong all season, entering tonight with the 8th best bullpen WHIP in the league.
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+100) vs Diamondbacks–8:45 PM CT
The Giants have underperformed all season long, but this is a total and utter mismatch. If they can’t win comfortably in this matchup, the Giants really are doomed.
Giants SP Logan Webb was born to pitch at Oracle Park. Last season, the young righty held some of the best home numbers in baseball(1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). This season, Webb has yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark and still holds a sub-3.00 ERA in this role. The Diamondbacks have taken advantage of some weak arms over the past couple of weeks, but this is a team that relies heavily on the deep ball to produce runs. Not only does Webb limit homers at an elite rate, but he also produces ground balls at one of the highest rates in the league. I like how Webb matches up with this Arizona lineup.
Why is Diamondbacks SP Dallas Keuchel still in the league? In 11 starts this season, all Keuchel has done is pitch to a 7.63 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. With his H/9 sitting at 12.75, Keuchel is truly one of the most hittable arms in all of baseball. The Giants were a team that mashed righties in their home ballpark last season, but this year, they’ve actually been more dependable against lefties at Oracle Park. Gabe Kapler has a plethora of platoon righties that should match up well with the lowly Keuchel tonight.
This game should be over before it starts. I thought getting an even price on this was a bargain to say the least.
