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August 1st MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A new month is upon us! I bring in a 116-108-4, +3.86u record into August and will certainly look to add to that over the next 31 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+120) vs Red Sox–7:10 PM CT

These are two teams moving in opposite directions. The Astros have further established their dominance in the AL West over the past week(won 6 of 7 vs Mariners), while the Red Sox are on the heels of a brutal 8-19 July.

Astros SP Luis Garcia is a very trustworthy arm in his home ballpark. He held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Minute Maid Park last season, and he sees his WHIP at 1.11 this year. The one struggle for Garcia this year has been allowing the long ball, but the Red Sox are not as imposing as people think. In addition to having key bats like Rafael Devers and Trevor Story on the IL, the Red Sox have posted a measly 97 wRC+ on the road vs righties this year.

Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi was the starter on the night the Sox allowed 28 runs to the Blue Jays, but his recent struggles only account for the part of the reason I’ll be against him tonight. This Astros order is extremely familiar with Eovaldi; this projected starting lineup is a combined for 22-for-54 vs Eovaldi, with 7 projected starters holding an OPS at or above 1.000. Combine that with the fact that Eovaldi has historically struggled on the road throughout his time in Boston, and I think the slump continues for him tonight.

The Astros hold a sizable advantage in the later innings with one of the best bullpens in baseball at their disposal. Closer Ryan Pressly won’t be available tonight, but this is a deep bullpen with a plethora of righties that should match up well with the Sox. The Red Sox’s ‘pen, on the other hand, has seen their overall bullpen WHIP climb above 1.30 and is yet another unit that is down multiple key pieces.

*MLB(1u): Padres -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT

I’ve wanted to back Padres SP Mike Clevinger for awhile now, and I couldn’t think of a better spot to do so. Clevinger holds a 1.12 WHIP on the season and now has the luxury of facing one of the worst road offenses in the league. Not only do the Rockies hold an atrocious 71 wRC+ vs righties on the road, but they enter this game in poor current form after dropping 4 of 6 on their recent home stand. 

Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is an easy guy to fade considering his 1.74 WHIP and 13.5 H/9. While Senzatela has managed to stay afloat pitching at Coors Field, he has totally crumbled on the road. He holds a 6.57 ERA and 1.78 WHIP away from home this year and held a 1.52 WHIP in this role last year. The Padres’ offense has been incredibly mediocre this season, but I’m hopeful they’ll start to swing the bats better down the stretch of the season. They scored 17 runs in their weekend set vs the Twins and are more than equipped to take advantage tonight.

The Padres hold a massive bullpen edge, bordering the line of having a top 10 ‘pen in the league. Meanwhile, the Rockies bullpen holds bottom 5 numbers across the board.

*MLB(0.77u): Guardians -1.5(+130) vs Diamondbacks–6:10 PM CT

Guardians SP Cal Quantrill might not be the most imposing arm out there, but his home numbers speak for themselves. He held a 2.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in Cleveland last year and has backed it up with a 1.11 WHIP at home this season. This is an extremely manageable matchup facing an Arizona lineup that ranks just 23rd in wRC+ vs righties on the road this year. In addition, the DBacks scored just 4 runs in Atlanta this weekend and looked lifeless at the plate all weekend.

Diamondbacks SP Zach Davies is in a tough spot making his first start in over a month after an IL stint. He only resumed mound work a week ago and elected not to go on a rehab assignment. I worry about how that carries over into tonight. Davies has had moderate success this year, but am I really afraid to go against an arm that delivered a 5.78 ERA and 1.60 WHIP a season ago? The Guardians are in sneakily good current form, winning 4 of their last 6(all on the road) and scoring 5 runs/game during that stretch.

The Guardians hold a massive bullpen edge and will have every key arm available tonight. To be quite honest, most teams will have the bullpen advantage when they square off against Arizona; the DBacks border around being a bottom 5 bullpen in the league.

No Premiums Today

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Officially no premiums today and no WNBA lines are out yet. Here are a few leans of mine in MLB, but… yea, it’s MLB.

Talk to you all tomorrow! Mucho more NFL content incoming, too!
MLB Leans:
  • Mets by 100 (the Corbin factor)
  • Orioles (+139)
  • Giants (+117)

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 4/9 – AFC West

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

AFC West

2021 Records

Kansas City 12-5/ Las Vegas 10-7/ LA Chargers 9-8/ Denver 7-10

Kansas City – The Chiefs have arrived at the realization that they will have to build through the draft now that Patrick Mahomes contract has kicked in at full dollars. They traded Tyreek Hill for a boat load of draft picks to try and rebuild a defense that lost a ton through free agency. Mahomes is still elite although he did have the worst season of his career in 2021. The Offensive Line is still solid for him, so I expect him to bounce back even with MVS being the primary replacement for Hill. Their front seven on defense actually may be slightly improved this year, but the secondary loses 3 out of 4 starters. The Chiefs spent 5 of their 10 draft picks on secondary help hoping to find NFL talent through sheer numbers. People are saying the Chiefs are going to lose control of the division this year. I am not one of those people. I have them winning a tie-breaker with LA by virtue of a better division record. As a Packers fan I have watched Aaron Rodgers keep them in contention year after year with high roster turnover. Granted he can’t win the big games anymore. Good Luck in the Playoffs Chiefs fans. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -130.

Los Angeles Chargers – The Bolts were an overtime tie away from making the playoffs in 2021, but the Raiders played to win in week 17 at the end of the game, and knocked them out. Justin Herbert took the first step in proving he is an elite NFL QB, and I think he only gets better in 2022. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are back and provide one of the top 1-2 punches at reciever in the NFL. Austin Ekeler is an elite 3 down back, and the offensive line is solid. The offense wasn’t the problem in 2022 as they scored the 5th most points in the NFL. The problem was the defense as they only finished with a +15 Point differential. They brought in JC Jackson to be their #1 Corner, and the big splash is Khalil Mack. If he has anything left in the tank pairing him up with Joey Bosa should provide this defense with a huge lift especially in passing situations. They also replaced a very week interior on the DL. This defense should be much improved in 2022. Vegas Win Projection 10 Juiced Over at -150

Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas made the playoffs and gave the AFC champs Cincinnati a solid game and have improved their team in the off-season. Adding Davonte Adams on as a target for Derek Carr is one of the biggest moves this off-season. Darren Waller should be back healthy which along with Hunter Renfrow gives the Raiders 3 legit guys who will create huge match-up problems for opposing defenses. I really like the addition of Chandler Jones on defense to pair up with Maxx Crosby as edge rushers. They need to create pressure as the secondary is at best average, and with the opposing gunslingers in this division they won’t hold up in the back end for long. My biggest question is Josh McDaniels, who spent 10 years back as an assistant after his first head coaching gig. Is he truly an offensive guru or did Brady just make him look good? I lean toward the Brady answer to that question, and I think Rich Bisaccia got a lot out of this team after the Gruden debacle. Vegas Win Projection 8.5 Juiced Over at -135

Denver Broncos – The Broncos won 7 games in 2021 thanks to an “elite” defense that allowed the third fewest point in the NFL. Add Russell Wilson and it looks like Denver could be a contender. That being said they played a very easy schedule, let go defensive guru Vic Fangio as coach, and gutted some of the defense. Even before the off season, the underlying defensive metrics were not great. They were brutal on third down, middle of the pack in EPA, and in takeaways and sacks, and couldn’t get off the field when they needed to stop the run when trailing late in games. Without Fangio’s magic I think this defense takes a big step backwards. On offense Wilson has some talent with Jerry Jeudy leading the way along with Cortland Sutton who looks to get back on track year 2 following his ACL injury. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should benefit from Wilson the most on this team as defenses wont be able to load up against the run. I’m also not crazy about Hackett as head coach. Much like McDaniels, his previous QB makes him look really good. Vegas Win Projection 10 Even Juice at -110.

2022 Projections

Kansas City 11-6

Los Angeles 11-6

Las Vegas 10-7

Denver 9-8

AFC West Action:

I think this is the best division in football this year top to bottom, which is what I thought about the NFC West last year and look how that turned out.

Kansas City – No Action. Variable Schedule this year is Buffalo, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay which means if they lose all 3 of those games this is likely a 9 or 10 win team.

Los Angeles – The head honcho here Kiev made a great call on LA in his preview, and I am riding it here. The Chargers have Jac, Hou, Sea, Cle, and Atl in the first 8 weeks. If they aren’t 6-2 by that point they will be a big disappointment. Play the Over 10 for 1 Unit and hedge back later to try and middle.

Las Vegas – Raiders are better than last year. Play the over 8.5 for 1.5 Units.

Denver- No Action, but lean under. I’m taking a wait and see approach. I’ve been burned by Russ before.

Also Taking a .5 Unit shot on Raiders to win division at +550.

 

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday 13-0 MLB TOP PROP

By
Rob Vinciletti
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The Sunday MLB Comp Play is on the Under 1.5 walks for Seattle starter George Kirby at 2:10 eastern today. Kitby has outstanding control and has just 10 walks on the year and has allowed no more than 1 in any of his 13 starts. We look for him to do well here in the finale against Houston and while we lean towards a Seattle win here. The play is under 1.5 walks for Kirby. Rob Vinciletti-

July 31st MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

I bring in a record of 115-107-4, +4.36u into this Sunday slate and will be rolling with 2 plays to cap off the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1.5u): Astros F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) vs Mariners–1:10 PM CT

Mariners SP George Kirby is a talented young arm with a seemingly bright future, but he is not ready for this moment. Kirby threw just 117 innings in the minor leagues before being called up, and even though he has made 5 road starts, 3 of those came against bottom-feeder teams. We saw him yield 5 ER in Boston early this year as well as 3 R in 4 innings against the Mets at Citi Field. This is a “rivalry” game of sorts that I don’t see Kirby acclimating well to with his lack of experience.

The Astros have really asserted their dominance over the Mariners here over the past week, winning 5 of their 6 meetings. They have averaged just under 6 runs/game in those matchups and hold the 2nd best wRC+ in the league vs righties in their home ballpark. I think this offense makes another statement in today’s game.

*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 5.5(+100) vs Royals–12:35 PM CT

Zack Greinke is rightfully a name that carries a lot of respect, but I’m not scared to play against him in this matchup. The 38-year old version of Greinke has stepped up horribly in his tougher road starts; he allowed 4 R in Toronto, 6 ER in Houston, 5 ER in Minnesota, and 5 ER in Colorado. Striking out merely 5 batters per 9 innings, I don’t like how Greinke’s recent fly ball trends play in a park like Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees haven’t been too profitable here in the month of July, but they seem to be entering one of their hot stretches after taking the first 3 games of this series. They scored 11 runs on Friday and 8 runs yesterday; overall, I love trusting a lineup that can get contributions from 1-to-9 in their order. 

As a kicker, the Royals hold the worst bullpen numbers in baseball by a fairly wide margin. We saw the KC pen yield 8 runs in the 8th inning of Friday’s game and a run in each in the 6th and 7th inning yesterday.

MLB Free Plays 7/31

By
Dan Everett
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Advanced stats haven’t meant a ton this season, especially lately. So let’s look at some of the situational spots and see if we can find some value.

Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-225) 1:40 pm ET

This is a pretty straight forward game. The Guardians are starting opener Brian Shaw, where as the Rays are sending out their ace and AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan. Cleveland has the 9th best pen in the majors so far this year, but it hasn’t turned into wins for them.

McClanahan is 3-1 on the F5 run line in July. He’s getting pretty good run support as well over the past 4 starts as the Rays are giving him 2.75 runs on average in the first 5 innings.

The Guardians should send out a similar lineup as yesterday’s losing effort. Corey Kluber got through the first 5 innings only giving up 1 run. The Rays gave him 5 runs of support during that time frame as well. I expect a similar game here out of McClanahan in his second start after the All Star break. In his first start out he limited Baltimore to 2 runs in the first 5 innings and ended up going 7.

The Guardians have also struggled on the season against lefties.

Take the Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 -145 1U

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-185) 7:08 pm ET

The Chicago Cubs are sending out Adrian Sampson in tonight’s game. The Giants are countering with Carlos Rodon.

Most of Sampson’s starts have come at home. In his two road starts this year against St Louis and Milwaukee he gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings. In his past two starts against the Mets and Pirates he’s only given up 2 runs in each of those games. I think he can repeat that effort here against a Giants offense that has been pretty meek this year. The Giants are also without Joc Pederson who provided most of their power this season.

Carlos Rodon has been much better at home (2.05 ERA) than on the road (3.88 ERA). He has struggled in his last 2 starts agains the Dodgers and Diamondbacks giving up 5 runs in each of those games. However, those starts were both on the road. His last home start against Milwaukee was a good one. He went 5 innings giving up 1 run on 8 hits. I expect him to bounce back here in this spot.

I expect this game to play like the first game in the series where Stroman started for the Cubs and Cobb went for the Giants. That game saw 1 run in the first 5 innings.

Expect a low scoring affair here and Take F5 U4 -120 1U

Premiums, 7.31

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Well I picked one hell of a weekend to give away free picks! Our Saturday wasn’t completely frustrating, but good God we’re getting some weird results. The Wings did exactly what we thought they would, shooting nearly 50% from the field, and we lost the TT by 0.5 points.

UFC started off strong, but the ref called the Derrick Lewis fight too early. Nothing was flukey about Moreno winning, but Nunes had Pena dead-to-rights more than once halfway through the main event and she didn’t capitalize.
Sunday is for football but we’re still a good 6 weeks away from that. God help us; let’s stay in the black today shall we?
WNBA Picks (13-11-1, +0.45 units):
 
Sky/Sun under 164.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This total has fallen a bit and we agree with the movement. Thankfully it’s not too late to get involved. Dropping one point from the opening line, this one has under written all over it. Their last contest was an aberration – the Sky shot 60% from the field in that game and accordingly, the total went way over.
Fever +17.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Well here I go again. The smallest unit size possible but again, the Aces could care less about their opponent and this game today. They’re on their way to the postseason, probably as a #1 seed, and they can sleepwalk through this one. An inflated line is one to grab, especially after the Aces actually tried in the first contest and predictably clobbered Indiana. We’ll bet on a respectable performance from a pro team at home.
Mystics -2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Seattle Storm confuse me in more ways than one, so typically I don’t like to bet on their games. But the Mystics maintain the best defense in the WNBA, leading all season in defensive rating, and the Storm were lucky to win that last contest. Seattle didn’t do much right but they got to the line 21 times and made 18 of their FTs. Well done; I don’t see a repeat performance like that in DC against a feisty Mystics squad. I’ll take DC to cover.
 
CFL Picks (8-9, -1.55 units):
 
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
Women’s Euro Final:
 
1st half under 0.5 goals (+150), to win 0.75 units
The tension of a Euro Cup final tends to bring the most stingy defensive effort since neither team can afford to go down early against two of the most skilled offenses in the world. The Germans are on a roll, high in confidence, so if you want to hedge this by going for Germany over 0.5 goals in the 1H (+145) or even over 1.5 goals (+750), I get it. We’ll go with a slow start.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!

Free MLB Play 7/30

By
Dan Everett
-

Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

Going back to the well today with the Yankees, but in a different way. The Yankees have gotten off to slow starts lately against inferior opponents and have even lost. I can’t trust them, even with the epic comeback last night.

I’m going to isolate Nestor Cortes here. He has been lights out at home allowing just 10 runs in 8 starts. He holds a 1.90 home ERA, Opp BA of .168, Opp OBP .239,  Opp SLG .269 and wOBA .231. He’s also striking out 28.8% of hitters, allowing .223 BABIP with a 2.72 FIP and 3.46 xFIP. He’s been getting a little bit lucky considering the difference in the FIP and xFIP, but I think the home dominance continues here against a poor Kansas City team. His hard hit contact rate is also down at home, and has been way down to start the second half.

While these advanced metrics haven’t meant much in a lot of plays recently, I think this one holds more weight as Cortes has proved all year, and with his recent starts, he’s one of the best in the American League.

For some additional analysis, if you want to consider the game last night, Cole has been up and down all year. That showed in his start last night. He was cruising until the 5th inning where he gave up 5 runs. He got the first 2 outs and then gave up 4 singles and a home run before finally getting the third out. I don’t think we see that out of Cortes here. I think he’ll be able to contain this lineup.

Last time out at Kansas City, Cortes gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings back in April. That was when the Royals had some more pop in their lineup as well. Granted it was the beginning of the season, but the Royals haven’t gotten better since then. Even with Merrifield and Perez in the lineup (which I would expect them to be as they were last night) that’s about the extent of guys that will do damage. I don’t see Garcia having another 3 for 4 game here.

I think this is the best value on the card for today. Personally I have this line somewhere closer to -175, so I’m going to take advantage of the implied probability.

Take Nestor Cortes U2.5 Earned Runs -115 2U

You can find all my premium plays on The Odds Breakers as well here.

Rob V: Saturday MLB Power System Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Saturday card has a RARE 6* MLB Blowout and a PLATINUM SUPREME TOTAL Headlining Bases. We alos have another TOP Tennis play now on a 13-1 run. In CFL Action we have a Triple System side and 2 BIG Soccer plays. MLB Comp play below

The Saturday MLB Comp Play is on the Chicago Whitesox at 7:15 eastern. Chicago has Cueto going and he has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 straight starts and has  a 1.35 Era in his last 3 starts. Blackburn for Oakland has hit a wall and has a 13.19 Era over his last 3 starts allowing 21 earned runs in 14 innings. Chicago is 39-14 vs .400 or worse teams. Oakland has sprung another upset win. However we note that road dogs of 130 or more that scored 5+ runs in a road dog win that was preceded by 2 home dog wins have just 1 win since 2004. Look for Chicago to get game 2 of the series. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Premiums, 7.30

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up people!

An absolutely BRUTAL beat last night on the Sky, who outperformed the Liberty in every single category except the one that mattered in the end: free throws. The Sky missed 3 FTs in the final 40 seconds to push our one wager and lose the other. It doesn’t take a calculus major to note that if they hit those free throws, we cover, win, and we look like ballsy sharps. Ah well, that’s variance and that’s why you NEVER over-invest in any one wager!
Onto Saturday; let’s make it a big one! Added more plays in CFL and UFC below, too.
WNBA Picks (12-10-1, +1.10 units):
Wings win (EVEN), to win 1.2 units
Wings TT over 81.5, to win 1.5 units
The WNBA’s best defensive team (the Dream) host the Dallas Wings today, the association’s best offense. The Wings lead the WNBA with a 112.1 offensive rating, nearly a full point above the touted Aces. Atlanta won the first two contests in this series so I like that this may matter more to the Wings, although the Dream better get off their collective asses if they hope to make the playoffs. Something’s wrong with their defense. In their last 3 games, all losses, Atlanta has allowed 86.3 ppg, and against offense that don’t have the same ability as Dallas. Once held up by their stingy defense, the Dream will hope to find it again tonight but I don’t trust it. The Wings are staying afloat, they’re not terrible on the road (7-7), and they’re very skilled at running the floor and taking advantage of second-chance opportunities. I think they overwhelm the Dream with high-octane offense and get the win today. Regression may hit Atlanta eventually, but they’re dumbfounded right now.
CFL Picks (8-6, +2.85 units):
 
Calgary 1Q +0.5 (-160), to win 1 unit
Calgary 1H +0.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
UFC 277 Picks (4-9, +2.02 units):
 
Pena/Nunes under 2.5 rounds (-115), to win 2 units
If I were abiding by the “Kelly Criterion,” I might bet a lot more than this because the formula tells me to spend way more than just 2 units here. I think this has a 60% chance of hitting, which I realize is probably conflated by my own bias, but the Criterion tells me to put 14 units on this. Interesting. In any case, I don’t like over-exposing myself in UFC — solo sports are so difficult to predict because of the sudden nature of 1-1 competition. One knockout, one slip, and you’re done. We learned the hard way betting on Aspinall last weekend. Anyway, these two chicks DO NOT like each other and I expect Amanda Nunes, who’s equal parts calculated and equal parts aggressive in these spots, to come out focused and make contact immediately. She’s on a mission, she wants her title back, and even better for this bet: Julianna Pena isn’t scared. Like, at all. I think these two warriors take it to each other early and often and someone goes night night.
Kai-Kara France by KO/TKO or DQ (+475), to win 4.75 units
I’ll keep this short – I think Brandon Moreno isn’t taking Kai-Kara France seriously enough. Moreno is a long-time killer in the flyweight division, deserving of his moniker, “the Assassin.” But France has legitimate KO power and if Moreno allows himself to get too close to France, which I think he will b/c of some veteran overconfidence, the young buck could put the former to champ to sleep in a millisecond. This line should be, in my opinion, under +300. I’ll take my chances with some great value here.
Derrick Lewis in Round 1 (+230), to win 1.15 units
THESE are the fights where Lewis does his best work. The freaks out there — Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou — Derrick Lewis doesn’t fare well in those battles. Pavlovich is a big SOB and he has the reach advantage, but Lewis has a way of luring his opponents inside for a nice little crack. And that’s often all it takes. Pavlovich has some good fights under his belt, but this is a big step up in competition, The Black Beast has seen it all and I can’t imagine he’ll take his time – a confident Lewis ends it early.
Pantoja wins inside distance (+180), 0.8 units to win 1.44 units
Pantoja has never been finished and even in a very deep flyweight division, he has the more dynamic arsenal of ways to beat you. Submissions, TKO ability, and a constancy to his game, I think he takes down a talented Perez and earns another bid at a title shot.
Ankalaev wins inside distance (+135), 1.2 units to win 1.6 units
Magomed Ankalaev hasn’t lost for over 4 years and he’s riding an 8 fight win streak heading into this contest. Looking to become the next light heavyweight championship contender, Ankalaev faces no easy challenge today in Anthony Smith, who sounds determined to upset the dominant Ankalaev and stifle his climb to the top. Here’s the problem – although Anthony Smith is a dynamic, veteran UFC fighter (I saw him once at a bar in DC, intimidating dude for sure), Ankalaev won’t be affected by his gamesmanship. In fact, I think it’ll play right into Ankalaev’s heavy hands. Magomed can beat his opponents in myriad ways and like we saw in previous fights (Ion Cutelaba, for example), when an opponent is overly aggressive against Ankalaev, they pay for it. That’s how Anthony Smith is approaching this contest and I think it ends early because of it.

Nicolae Negumereanu (-123), to win 1 unit

Negumereanu faces Ihor Potieria today in a fight between two light heavyweights trying to at least peek into top contendership in their division. It’s unlikely that either one of these fighters are skilled enough to get there in the long run, but Nicolae has the patience and diversity of skill to outlast Potieria, who doesn’t seem to know how to win fights unless he can explode and KO his opponent early. NN is one of the most durable fighters in the UFC, with only 1 pro loss, and he’s never been beaten early. Take Nicolae Negumereanu for an early win on your card.
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