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UFC 277 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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54% all time NFL sides and totals! 9.5% ROI
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Amanda Nunes vs Juliana Pena +225

Ok, this is the rematch between who some call the GOAT of at least women’s MMA and the woman who beat her back in December 2021.  Now this line is a massive shift from -1000 for Nunes down to -280 and I have to ask myself why the huge market discrepancy?   Now Amanda was clearly out of shape for her Pena fight, and it showed when she uncharacteristically tapped on a weak submission attempt in the middle of the second round on a three round fight.  Why did that happen?   Well, Amanda went through a lot of life changes.  She got married to Nina Nunes and they had a child together through in vitro fertilization.  I having kids myself know quite well how much that it is the largest distraction from work that you could ever possibly imagine.  Anyways, how much are we going to punish Amanda for this?   $8 of line value seems quite steep and especially in a sport where everyone loses.   Lets look at the metrics.   These two women have similar stats and you have to give the striking advantage to Amanda’s at 4.55 to Pena’s 3.36, while giving the Wrestling advantage to Pena.   In saying that, the strength of schedule very very much in favor of Nunes being that she is the only woman to beat Valentina Shevchenko twice as well as all of the other top contenders in the Bamtam weight class.   Pena, before her Nunes fight, had her best win against against Sara McMann and then lost two out of her last three fights before that to submission if you can believe that.   The final part of this handicap is Pena’s weakness that nobody is talking about.   Juliana’s take down defense is a pathetic 22% which means if Amanda has any brains, she will just start taking her down all fight until she is warn out enough to chase a submission.   Nunes needs to protect her gas-tank here, and she can’t blow her strength out like she did in the first round in the last fight.  Nunes take down defense is a strong 82% so I am ok if Pena tries to shoot.   I think the last fight was an anomaly, and Pena has never went past a 3rd round in a fight.   I am going to take Nunes ITD and by submission.

Nunes ITD -135 – 2 stars
Nunes by submission +550 – 1 star

Bonus Play:   The whole perception of the Black beast and Sergei Pavlovich is that they finish their fights and/or get beaten early.  Well, that is mainly true when they are fighting inferior opponents but I think that both of these fighters respect each other enough to get past. 1.5 rounds.   Sergei trains at Eagles MMA which has a huge focus on wrestling/grappling and having two large humans on the ground can really push the clock here.

Lewis/Pavlovich over 1.5 rounds – 1 star

Doubling Down on the Sky

By
Chris R. Farley
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The Sky line has moved down to -7.5 at some books, -8 at most. This may scare some bettors away but I’m doubling down. Gotta be confident about your angles when you’re confident, and I think that’s the public moving it down. See the added bet in red below:

WNBA Picks (12-8, +3.85 units):
 
Fever +14 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a bad spot for Las Vegas. Coming 2 days after a Commissioner’s Cup win over the WNBA’s reigning champs, the Aces fly to Indiana to play in probably their most meaningless game of the season. Their place in the postseason is all but sealed, and they have a game against Indiana again on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the Aces rest some of their harder-working starters and although they have more than enough talent to still win, even at 80% effort or so, the Fever would love to knock the conference’s #1 team off their pedestal. This will be a big game for Indiana and a very sleepy game, in all likelihood, for the Aces. Win or not, this is the side to play.
Sky -10 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Sky -8 (-110), to win 2 units
On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a reason why this line is so massive: the Chicago Sky must be absolutely furious with their recent results. I was watching some old Monday Night Raw episodes last night when I couldn’t sleep for some cheap late-night entertainment. It was a 2003 episode, Goldberg joined the WWE and someone tried to run over him that night in the show storyline. Needless to say, ol’ Goldberg was pissed and he was ready to take it out on his opponent, Christian. Christian got absolutely mutilated in a steel cage, and even though that’s fake-ass wrestling, it’s also a good story on human nature. The Sky lost their last matchup against the Liberty and just got upset by the Aces in the CC. Time to apply revenge on the world and the Liberty are within range. All Sky for me. I think it’s a blowout.

WNBA Free Pick – July 29: Liberty vs. Sky

By
Kate Constable
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Coming off a 1-1 night, our WNBA record sits at 3-3. Rolling with one play tonight that seems like an easy one, but don’t they all initially? Let’s hope hindsight doesn’t tell a different story.

Sky -10 at DraftKings, 1 unit* (The line has moved to -10.5 at most other places but I would still play that too)

This is a big line, but Chicago is coming off two straight losses and is ready to prove that they’re still the best team in the league. The Sky lost to the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup on Tuesday and missed out on the larger bag of prize money. The game before that, they fell to the Liberty on the road thanks to an And-1 by Sabrina Ionescu with nine seconds left and two free throws that sealed the deal for New York. Chicago also shot just 12% from deep. Ouch.

In their two previous meetings with New York, Chicago won 83-50 early in the season and 88-86 in mid-June. Candance Parker had an off night in that second game, shooting just 1-4 from the field for four points. I see this game looking much more like their first meeting with the Liberty. Chicago is coming into this one in a great spot, having a few days of rest since the Cup game. I also expect them to be as motivated as they’ve been all season. This is not only a revenge game against their recent loss over New York but also a great bounce-back game from their loss in the Commissioner’s Cup. It’s going to be all Chicago in the Windy City tonight. Let’s lay the points!

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.

July 29th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-2, -0.61u night, my MLB record now sits at 114-106-4, +4.56u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off with a bang! To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group. 

*MLB(1u): Athletics F5 TT UNDER 1.5(-120) @ White Sox–7:10 PM CT

Lance Lynn started the year on the IL and struggled mightily upon his return. With that said, I saw a “buy sign” in his last start after seeing him deliver 6 shutout innings against the Guardians. Considering Lynn held a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP at Guaranteed Rate Field last season and has plenty of experience under his belt, I trust him in this role.

Lynn will get a very favorable matchup facing an Athletics lineup that ranks just 28th in wRC+ vs righties away from home. Lynn’s main issue has been allowing the deep ball, but luckily for him, the A’s rank just 25th in HR’s this season.

This is the type of matchup Lynn should command completely from start to finish.

*MLB(1u): Cubs/Giants F5 UNDER 4(-120)–9:15 PM CT

Giants SP Alex Cobb has evolved into a guy I love backing in his home ballpark. Cobb holds a 3.02 ERA at Oracle Park this season and is allowing just 0.4 HR/9 in this role. Cobb’s astounding 3.56 GB/FB rate makes him virtually immune to allowing the long ball. While his overall ERA sits at 4.26, his sub-3.00 FIP is much more indicative of the level of arm he has proven to be. The Cubs offense got no-hit through 6 innings in last night’s game and have been below average(96 wRC+) vs righties on the road this year. In addition, their best 2 hitters(Contreras and Happ) could be traded on the drop of a dime.

Cubs SP Marcus Stroman has struggled mightily at Wrigley Field this season, but on the road, he holds a brilliant 2.31 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While I loved backing the Giants vs righties at home last year, that success has simply not carried over into this season. The Giants are also not in great current form offensively; prior to last night, they had lost 7 straight, and last night’s win was almost solely due to Alex Wood. While I do expect the Giants to get hot at some point down the stretch, I’m not expecting tonight to be the night things turn.

Premiums, 7.29

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Lost our CFL Pick but a nice 3-0 night in the WNBA. Can’t sleep, looking at lines, and executing bets at 1am. Love to see it

Happy Friday! Oh and tell your acquaintances about my premium picks, please! LFG!
WNBA Picks (12-8, +3.85 units):
 
Fever +14 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a bad spot for Las Vegas. Coming 2 days after a Commissioner’s Cup win over the WNBA’s reigning champs, the Aces fly to Indiana to play in probably their most meaningless game of the season. Their place in the postseason is all but sealed, and they have a game against Indiana again on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the Aces rest some of their harder-working starters and although they have more than enough talent to still win, even at 80% effort or so, the Fever would love to knock the conference’s #1 team off their pedestal. This will be a big game for Indiana and a very sleepy game, in all likelihood, for the Aces. Win or not, this is the side to play.
Sky -10 (-110), to win 1.5 units
On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a reason why this line is so massive: the Chicago Sky must be absolutely furious with their recent results. I was watching some old Monday Night Raw episodes last night when I couldn’t sleep for some cheap late-night entertainment. It was a 2003 episode, Goldberg joined the WWE and someone tried to run over him that night in the show storyline. Needless to say, ol’ Goldberg was pissed and he was ready to take it out on his opponent, Christian. Christian got absolutely mutilated in a steel cage, and even though that’s fake-ass wrestling, it’s also a good story on human nature. The Sky lost their last matchup against the Liberty and just got upset by the Aces in the CC. Time to apply revenge on the world and the Liberty are within range. All Sky for me. I think it’s a blowout.
CFL Picks (8-6, +2.85 units):
 
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
UFC 277 Picks (4-9, +2.02 units):
 
Pena/Nunes under 2.5 rounds (-115), to win 2 units
If I were abiding by the “Kelly Criterion,” I might bet a lot more than this because the formula tells me to spend way more than just 2 units here. I think this has a 60% chance of hitting, which I realize is probably conflated by my own bias, but the Criterion tells me to put 14 units on this. Interesting. In any case, I don’t like over-exposing myself in UFC — solo sports are so difficult to predict because of the sudden nature of 1-1 competition. One knockout, one slip, and you’re done. We learned the hard way betting on Aspinall last weekend. Anyway, these two chicks DO NOT like each other and I expect Amanda Nunes, who’s equal parts calculated and equal parts aggressive in these spots, to come out focused and make contact immediately. She’s on a mission, she wants her title back, and even better for this bet: Julianna Pena isn’t scared. Like, at all. I think these two warriors take it to each other early and often and someone goes night night.
Kai-Kara France by KO/TKO or DQ (+475), to win 4.75 units
I’ll keep this short – I think Brandon Moreno isn’t taking Kai-Kara France seriously enough. Moreno is a long-time killer in the flyweight division, deserving of his moniker, “the Assassin.” But France has legitimate KO power and if Moreno allows himself to get too close to France, which I think he will b/c of some veteran overconfidence, the young buck could put the former to champ to sleep in a millisecond. This line should be, in my opinion, under +300. I’ll take my chances with some great value here.
Derrick Lewis in Round 1 (+230), to win 1.15 units
THESE are the fights where Lewis does his best work. The freaks out there — Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou — Derrick Lewis doesn’t fare well in those battles. Pavlovich is a big SOB and he has the reach advantage, but Lewis has a way of luring his opponents inside for a nice little crack. And that’s often all it takes. Pavlovich has some good fights under his belt, but this is a big step up in competition, The Black Beast has seen it all and I can’t imagine he’ll take his time – a confident Lewis ends it early.
More UFC bets coming

MLB Thursday Free Play – Buy Gilbert’s Grapes

By
Shawn Knoche
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Rough start to the second half as we are currently at 7-14 Post All-Star Break after a nice 27+ Unit run through June and July prior to the break.

3 Plays on the card today, You can find all my plays right here at TheOddsbreakers.com. The Free Play of the three evaluates the Mariners and Astros battling in Houston tonight.

Logan Gilbert has been a pillar of consistency all year long. Over the course of 20 starts he has never gone less than 5 Innings Pitched. Gilbert has also not allowed over 4 Earned Runs all season (Happened 3 times) and has allowed 1 Earned run or less in 10 of the 20 outings. His underlying stats say he has been lucky with a 3.69 xFIP vs his actual 2.77 ERA. His strand rate is a little high and BABIP against a little low, but my main concern with Gilbert is his hard hit rate hasn’t hurt him as much as it should to this point. This will be his 4th start against the Astros this year, and he is 2-1, losing Saturday in a pitcher’s dual with Justin Verlander. He has a 2.05 ERA with a 16/4 K/BB ratio over 22 innings against the Astros this year. The fact that he has been able to keep one of the most high powered offenses in check over 22 innings tells me he will perform at a solid level against the Astros tonight.

Jose Urquidy is the opposing starter tonight for the Astros, and while he has pitched better of late there are still some underlying issues for Urquidy. Let’s start with what he is doing differently in his recent starts. Since June 14th he is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and a 34/10 K/BB ratio. They biggest reason for his recent success has been increased slider usage, which has been over 10% of his pitch mix in each of his last 7 starts (Compared to only once prior). It has been a highly successful pitch for him and has helped drastically lower his BABIP against compared to what he was doing earlier in the year. Even with the adjustments his xFIP in all but one of his last seven starts has been drastically higher than what the actual performance was. The Mariners just saw Urquidy and that slider this weekend and he held them to 1 Earned run over six innings.  However this will be his 5th start vs the Mariners and Urquidy is only 1-3 with a 7.56 ERA. If the Mariners can figure out the slider I expect some increased level of success compared to the last match-up.

As far as intangibles, the Astros swept the Mariners and a day night double header from the Yanks to open up the second half and then were swept themselves in Oakland the last three nights.  The Mariners bounced back from their series with the Astros by sweeping the Rangers the last 3 nights. The Astros are the superior offensive team vs right handers holding a .748 OPS compared to the Mariners .703. No team in MLB is hotter than the Mariners. Since June 21st they are 25-6. They haven’t made up much ground as the Astros are 23-10 over the same time frame.

I have this as at even money for the Mariners or a -110 pick-em so I think there’s value on Seattle at +125. Taking the Dogs for 1.5 Units.

 

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday MLB + BIG WNBA and CFL Plays Headline

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Top Level Thursday card has a 5* MLB Diamond Cutter Blowout, an WNBA Platinum Supreme and another BIG Canadian Football League Power System play. MLB Totals Play below.

The MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Detroit at Toronto game at 7:05 eastern. The Jays and Tigers are in the Totals System below that is on a 15-0 Under run since 2008. The system pertains to home favorites off a -200 or higher home favored loss vs a team like Detroit on a home win. Toronto is on an 11-1 Under run vs .400 or less teams. Detroit has gone under 6 of 7 on Thursdays and 8 of 11 in the opening game of a series. Alexander for Detroit has a 2.95 Era in night games. Toronto has Kikuchi making the start. In the series 16 of 21 here have stayed under. Look fort his one to go under. On Thursday a powerful card is up and backed with a big 5* MLB Diamond cutter Blowout system, an Undefeated CFL Football system and a TOP WNBA Platinum Supreme move. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on tonight as we continue to cash. For the Comp play look for the Tigers and Jays to stay under 9.5 RV- Golden Contender Sports

 

O/U: 0-15-1

Aug 22, 2008 recap Fri 2008 home Phillies Kyle Kendrick-R Dodgers Greg Maddux-R 8-1 7 W -0.5 U 10-5 0-1 7-1 -130.0 9.5 9
Jul 03, 2009 recap Fri 2009 home Yankees AJ Burnett-R Blue Jays Brian Tallet-L 4-2 2 W -3.5 U 8-7 0-0 2-0 -180.0 9.5 9
May 19, 2010 recap Wed 2010 home Phillies Jamie Moyer-L Cubs Tom Gorzelanny-L 1-4 -3 L -4.5 U 5-6 0-0 0-3 -140.0 9.5 9
Sep 20, 2011 recap Tue 2011 home Phillies Kyle Kendrick-R Nationals Tommy Milone-L 3-4 -1 L -1.5 U 10-10 1-1 0-3 -175.0 8.5 10
Aug 17, 2015 recap Mon 2015 home Cardinals Michael Wacha-R Giants Christopher Heston-R 2-1 1 W -4.0 U 6-6 0-0 1-0 -155.0 7.0 9
Sep 19, 2016 recap Mon 2016 home Cubs Jason Hammel-R Reds Tim Adleman-R 5-2 3 W -2.5 U 9-6 1-0 3-2 -265.0 9.5 9
Sep 18, 2017 recap Mon 2017 home Yankees Jaime Garcia-L Twins Ervin Santana-R 2-1 1 W -5.5 U 8-4 1-2 1-0 -165.0 8.5 9
Apr 19, 2018 recap Thu 2018 home Yankees CC Sabathia-L Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez-R 4-3 1 W -2.0 U 8-6 1-0 2-0 -155.0 9.0 9
Sep 03, 2018 recap Mon 2018 home Guardians Adam Plutko-R Royals Jakob Junis-R 1-5 -4 L -3.0 U 4-11 0-1 0-5 -195.0 9.0 9
Sep 18, 2018 recap Tue 2018 home Yankees JA Happ-L Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi-R 3-2 1 W -4.0 U 3-5 2-0 2-1 -165.0 9.0 9
Aug 25, 2020 recap Tue 2020 home Rays Tyler Glasnow-R Orioles Tommy Milone-L 4-2 2 W -2.5 U 7-7 0-2 2-1 -215.0 8.5 9
Aug 30, 2021 recap Mon 2021 home Dodgers Julio Urias-L Braves Drew Smyly-L 5-3 2 W -0.5 U 10-8 0-0 5-0 -210.0 8.5 9
Sep 20, 2021 recap Mon 2021 home Brewers Freddy Peralta-R Cardinals Jon Lester-L 2-5 -3 L -1.0 U 3-9 0-0 0-3 -184.0 8.0 9
Jun 02, 2022 recap Thu 2022 home Dodgers Tony Gonsolin-R Mets Taijuan Walker-R 2-0 2 W -6.5 U 8-3 0-1 2-0 -180.0 8.5 9
Jul 04, 2022 recap Mon 2022 home Dodgers Julio Urias-L Rockies Kyle Freeland-L 5-3 2 W 0.0 P 8-8 0-0 4-1 -300.0 8.0 9
Jul 21, 2022 recap Thu 2022 home Astros Cristian Javier-R Yankees Jordan Montgomery-L 3-2 1 W -2.5 U 10-5 0-0 2-0 -135.0 7.5 9

Jul 28, 2022 recap Thu 2022 home Blue Jays Yusei Kikuchi-L Tigers Tyler Alexander-L -225.0 8.5

July 28th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A 1-1 Wednesday brings my MLB record to 113-104-4, +5.17u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-120) vs Dodgers–7:40 PM CT

The Rockies are an offensive juggernaut at home(as we all know by now), and that is especially true when facing left-handed pitching. Their .894 home OPS vs lefties is far-and-away the best mark in the league.

Dodgers SP Tyler Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers this year, but he is still not a guy I’d be willing to trust in his tougher road matchups. We’ve seen him falter against the White Sox, Reds, and these same Rockies; at Coors Field earlier this year, Anderson allowed 10 hits and 4 ER in 6 innings. I also have my questions about how sustainable Anderson’s success is given he still carries a career 4.36 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Regardless, I do not mind going against him in this role.

*MLB(1u): Rangers TT UNDER 2.5(+115) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT

Virtually the only way I could back the Angels at this point is when Shohei Ohtani takes the hill. Ohtani held a sub-2.00 ERA at home last year, and I’d argue that he’s pitched even better this year(sub-1.00 WHIP at Angel Stadium). This is a pretty favorable matchup facing a Rangers offense that holds a measly 92 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching this season. While the Rangers got the bats hot before the All Star Break, they are on the heels of getting swept in Seattle and seem to have come back down to earth. 

The Angels’ bullpen is not great, but they are also not a liability. I like how the righties coming out of the back end of this ‘pen match up with the Rangers and am willing to trust them in this role. 2.5 is certainly a low number, but Ohtani warrants it and then some. The +115 price made this too hard for me to pass up.

I would really caution against trusting the Angels’ offense in any way. I’d much rather isolate one of the SP’s in baseball rather than include one of the worst offenses in the league over the last 2 months.

*MLB(0.56u): Tigers F5 ML(+180) @ Blue Jays–6:07 PM CT

Seeing a price at greater than -200 for a Yusei Kikuchi start is pretty laughable. Kikuchi has been a train wreck for Toronto this year(5.12 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), and this is not some easy-breezy matchup as some people will incorrectly conclude. Facing the lefties on the road this year, the Tigers actually hold an above-average 101 wRC+. Additionally, Detroit just scored 20 runs in their 3 game set against a very good Padres pitching staff.

Tigers SP Tyler Alexander is an adequate back-of-the-rotation arm by my estimation. While he doesn’t have a large sample size this year, I was impressed that he recorded a 1.16 WHIP on the road last year in over 60 innings. The Blue Jays were held to just 1 run in last night’s game and rank just 17th in wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. I think Alexander keeps this lineup off-balance tonight.

While the Tigers do hold a slight bullpen advantage, this will remain a F5 sprinkle. I like how Alexander matches up with this lineup and don’t want to have to rely on the Tigers’ righties who don’t match up so well. With that said, this matchup absolutely warrants a sprinkle on the Tigers F5.

Premiums, 7.28

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hi All! England disappointed but today we have plenty of action. Added a WNBA pick and a CFL pick – let’s fucking go!
WNBA Picks (9-8, +0.85 units):
 
Storm/Sun over 160, (-110), to win 1 unit
The Storm just keep playing with their food and stumbling around since the break but make no mistake about it, they’re better than the Sun from beyond the arc and they’re very good at creating easy buckets. Ergo, they’ll have some advantages Thursday. The narrative of this game is obvious – the Storm will try to slow the game and assert themselves on defense, while the Sun will attempt to utilize the fast-break, as they do VERY well, and keep the game moving fast. Connecticut has one of the most potent offenses in the WNBA and this feels like a situation where the Storm will be chasing them all game while the Sun enjoy the comforts of their home arena. In a revenge spot for Seattle, I like their extra effort to keep the score climbing. The Sun -3 feels right, so we’ll play the over.
Mercury 1H ML (-130) to win 1 unit
Mercury 1H -2 (-110), to win 1 unit
We didn’t get the best number full game on the Mercury, but if it somehow goes back down to 3 or less, I’d take it. This line opened at -1.5 and almost immediately rose to -3.5, and I’m thinking most of that is because of Liz Cambage’s departure. Cambage is a dominant player when she’s thriving, which clearly she wasn’t, but her 6’8″ presence will be missed and the Mercury are in a great spot, at home, to take advantage.
 
CFL Picks (8-5, +3.95 units):
 
Montreal Alouettes +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a better spot for the Tiger-Cats after an impressive performance in a loss off very little rest, while the Alhouettes cruised over the Redblacks last weekend and they’re probably feeling fat and sassy tonight. In any case, this line opened at -1.5, where we think it should be, and now the books are giving Montreal too many points. Though neither of these teams are elite, Montreal plays well against equal or inferior opponents and they certainly have the offensive prowess to hang with a Hamilton team who seems to be figuring themselves out. Either way, this is ALL about the number, always, and we’re playing on Montreal at an inflated line.
 
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
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