Navy vs Army -6.5 O/U 39

I watch this game every year, and I can tell you right now that this line isn’t correct.  This amazing game tends to go under the total and there are valid reasons for that.  First of all, there are no better teams to stop the option then option teams themselves.   These teams know exactly how each offense runs the ball.  In a low scoring game, it is best to look at the dog.   Navy is a strange +6.5 points here.   The reason for this line is that Navy hasn’t finished the season well.   What nobody is talking about is that Navy quarterback Blake Horvath has been dealing with injuries, and is much better coming into this game.   Looking at the numbers, Navy has had the stronger schedule on Sagarin ranking 88th to Army at 114th.  Both teams run the ball quite well, but both defenses struggle about the same against the run ranking in the 100s in defensive rushing success rate.   That should not matter quite as much as I stated, both teams know what to expect.  I expect both teams to pass the ball some to keep the defenses honest.  Navy is actually the better passing team at 128 passing yards per game to Army at 83.   Navy is also the more explosive team.   The X factor that I find is that Navy has switched up their option to more T formations, which could confuse Army some in their gap control.   Grab the points here in this game and sprinkle the ML.

Navy +6.5 – 2.5 stars

Saturday, Dec. 14

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl:  South Alabama vs. Western Michigan +8.5 O/U 58
Location:  Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Time:  9 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

South Alabama’s Motivation:  Medium Low – They stay in the state, but Major Applewhite is only 0-3 ATS in bowl games.

Western Michigan’s Motivation:  Medium – They will want to win, but may take this as a vacation in Alabama.

Home:  University of South Alabama is only 172 miles away!   They will be basically the home team and will give them 2 points.

Key Guy’s missing:

South Alabama:  

• Starting QB Gio Lopez (maybe)
• RB Fluff Bothwell (leading rusher; 111-832-13)
• Starting CB Jordan Scruggs

Western Michigan:  

• Stud TE Blake Bosma (most receptions on team; 37-403-6)
• DE Corey Walker (best edge rusher)
• DL Anterio Thompson (410 snaps)

Net YPP:  South Alabama +1.1

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   There is nothing more key than Gio Lopez missing from this game as Bishop Davenport is a step down, but I will say that South Alabama should be able to run all over this team.

Coach Bowl ATS:

• South Alabama: Major Applewhite, 0-3
• Western Michigan:  Lance Taylor, 0-0

Verdict:  Wait to bet on South Alabama.  If Lopez is in, I think that this number should be north of 10.

Play:  Lean USA!