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College Basketball Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting – Mississippi State vs Georgia

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Bulldogs -1.5 O/U 140.5

Date: February 8, 2025 Venue: Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA Time: 6:00 PM ET

Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-6, 4-5 SEC):

  • Key Player: Josh Hubbard (17.6 PPG)
  • Strengths: Strong scoring ability, aggressive playstyle
  • Weaknesses: Struggles against ranked opponents, recent losing streak

Georgia Bulldogs (16-7, 4-6 SEC):

  • Key Player: Asa Newell (15.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
  • Strengths: Solid defense, strong rebounding, home court advantage
  • Weaknesses: Inconsistent performance, recent losses

Prediction:

Georgia’s defense has been a key factor in their victories. By keeping Mississippi State’s scoring in check and forcing turnovers, they can control the game’s tempo and limit their opponent’s scoring opportunities.  Georgia needs to dominate the boards, especially on the defensive end. By securing rebounds, they can limit Mississippi State’s second-chance points and control the pace of the game.  Playing at Stegeman Coliseum, Georgia has a strong home record. The crowd support and familiarity with the court can give them an edge over the visiting team.  Asa Newell needs to have a standout game, both offensively and defensively. His scoring and rebounding will be crucial in securing a win for Georgia.   I like Georgia’s advantages here.  On Haslametrics, Georgia has a significant three point shooting advantage ranking 86th in adjusted three point percentage to Mississippi State ranking 272nd in defending it.  I think that they should be able to capitalize from downtown at home.

Georgia PK -120 – 2.5 stars

Bonus Play:   Florida vs Auburn under 157.5 – 2 stars – While both teams have been known to play fast, neither of them will want to get into a shootout with each other.  Florida has been poor offensively on the road.   They haven’t scored past 71 point since January 5th away from the comforts of home.  Both Florida and Auburn have defenses ranking in the top 14 on Kenpom.   

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College Basketball Friday Freebie – Sports Betting – St Johns vs UCONN

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St Johns vs UCONN -3.5 O/U 142

  • Date: February 7, 2025
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Harry A. Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, Connecticut
  • Broadcast: FOX Sports

Team Records

  • St. John’s Red Storm: 20-3 (11-1 in Big East)
  • UConn Huskies: 16-6 (8-3 in Big East)

Kenpom Rankings

  • St. John’s: Ranked 16th in overall efficiency.
  • UConn: Ranked 54th in offensive efficiency.

Key Players

  • St. John’s: Daniss Jenkins, Montez Mathis, Rasheem Dunn
  • UConn: Solomon Ball, Alex Karaban, Liam McNeeley

Recent Form

  • St. John’s: Won 15 of their last 16 games.
  • UConn: Strong in recent games, with Solomon Ball scoring 25 points in their last game.

Game Statistics

  • St. John’s: Averaging 71.3 points, 36.1 rebounds, 13.5 assists, 9.2 steals, and 5.1 blocks per game.
  • UConn: Averaging 74.4 points, 28.8 rebounds, 17.8 assists, 4.9 steals, and 6.3 blocks per game.

Prediction

This should be the game of the night.  The Huskies get great news yesterday as their best player in Liam McNeeley is finally back on the court since his injury on January 1st.  UCONN has some matchup advantages here as while St John’s defense is solid, they can’t defend the three that well ranking 181st in opponent three point percentage. With McNeeley back in the lineup, Uconn should be able go bombs away form behind the arc.   Shooting guard Solo Ball shoots an amazing 46% from downtown and will only ad to the onslaught.  the Johnnies are in a rough spot after a huge win on Tuesday against Marquette.   Their losses come when they are away from home, and I think that it’s time that the Huskies take back control of the Big East.   Given UConn’s home court advantage and recent strong performances, they have a good chance to win by 5 points or more.

UCONN -3.5 – 2 stars

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Podcast 675 – 11 – 25 – With Andy Molitor – NFL Super Bowl LIX Props – CBB Feb 7th – 9th – UFC 312 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from @DeepDivePod and @Betsperts is back to break down a huge super bowl weekend of props!  First, Kiev gets into some college hoops with some buy low/sell high.  Next, we get into some big games with some Free Plays for the hoops weekend.  Then, Andy comes on and the guys talk some Vikings and Super Bowl LIX.   After that, Kiev and Andy talk about the prop market.  We get into some of the crazy props that are out there as well as some Free Prop Plays that we like.  Then, Kiev talks some UFC 312 with a few fight break downs, plays and thoughts from the main card.  Finally, Kiev recaps his plays for the weekend!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 31: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the LA Clippers high fives Paul George #13 of the LA Clippers during the game against the New York Knicks on January 31, 2021 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

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Super Bowl LIX Matchup & Plays – Eagles vs Chiefs – Which Pill Are We Taking?

Chiefs vs Eagles +1.5 O/U 48.5

Well, it is the matchup that we all cringed about yet knew could happen. Here we are. This game reminds me of the movie The Matrix. Are we going to take the red pill to see reality? Or are we going to take the blue pill to remain happily brainwashed? Let’s break it down.

The Chiefs are number 8 in offensive EPA. They are number 8 in drop-back EPA and number 13 in rush EPA. The Eagles are number 6 in offensive EPA. They are number 7 in drop-back EPA and number 1 in rush EPA.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are number 17 in defensive EPA. They are number 16 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 15 in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles are number 2 in defensive EPA. They are number 3 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 2 in opponent rush EPA.

What does this all say? Well, it says that the Eagles are the better team and should be able to move the ball on the Chiefs’ defense almost at will. Yet, the Chiefs just can’t stop winning, now can they?

Both teams are very close in yards per point, both on offense and defense. The Eagles move the ball much better than the Chiefs at a net positive 0.9 yards per play, while the Chiefs are a net negative -0.3 yards per play. The Eagles should have significant advantages over the Chiefs. One big mismatch is the Eagles’ defensive line should be able to manhandle the Chiefs’ offensive line. Why are the Chiefs so good then? Well, it’s due to some clutch factors that are hard to quantify.

The Chiefs have a very stingy defense, allowing 17 yards per point, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. They are also great at 3rd down conversions, ranking 3rd at 48%. Is this enough to justify the Eagles statistically being the much better team with a +1.3 net yards per play? I think we would have to be fools to not see that the flags tend to be thrown and, of course, “not thrown” Kansas City’s way.

There are many theories on why the Chiefs are favored by the officials—from the “Vegas Called” theory (which is a bit far-fetched), to the idea that “the NFL and the networks make more money when the Chiefs win” (much more plausible). I personally think that the officials feel they need to appease someone upstairs, which is clearly the wrong thing to do. For some reason, the NFL allows it. We may never know why that is, but here are some numbers to think about from Warren Sharp showing a statistically significant officiating advantage towards the Chiefs:  https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/chiefs-referee-playoffs-penalties-2024-divisional-round/

At the end of the day, my numbers have the Eagles winning this game 25-22. Going back to what I said about The Matrix, by now it should be clear that if you take the blue pill, you are betting on the Eagles. Maybe in betting on this side, you could be in complete denial of the fact that this game may be biased and manipulated for the Kansas City Chiefs. The numbers are strongly in your favor, and you expect Hurts to be just as clutch as Mahomes in an evenly called game. You are basically a metrics-only handicapper and will continue to go with that.

On the other side, if you take the red pill, you are waking up and betting on the Chiefs knowing that the Chiefs are going to win. Even though every logical, numbers-based, quantitative handicap says to bet on the Eagles, you are using a qualitative eye test approach. You see not only that Mahomes and the Chiefs are very clutch but also bank on the refs favoring your side. I’m not saying this is wrong. The intangible aspects of these Chiefs’ victories have been colossal. Fading the Chiefs can be used to define insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

For me, I’m not taking either of these pills. I would personally feel like an idiot if I bet on either side of this game and lost. If I truly like how the Eagles move the ball and play defense, I could always attack that in the prop market.

One bet that I did make was the 1st half under. I honestly believe that in Super Bowls, teams try not to make big mistakes early and give the game away. The teams are more risk-averse and would rather play small ball than go for explosive results. I bet this side every year, but ironically, the only year it didn’t work out for me out of the last eight or so was this exact matchup two years ago. I think both of these teams have better defenses than they had in 2022, so I do think they can put a stop to scoring. I will continue to ride this trend.

Best Bet:  1st half under 24.5 – 2 stars

One last thing. If the Eagles are going to win this game, I think they have to be up by a few scores late. Nobody wants to give Mahomes the ball with the zebras watching with extra care on the last drive. I think the Eagles know this, and there is a chance that if they do win, it has to be by a margin. I’m going to take a play on the Eagles’ alternate line at -6.5. We can also possibly hedge this later and win money either way.

Eagles Alt line -6.5 +261 – 1 star

 

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2025 WM Phoenix Open Preview & Picks

Congrats to all the Rory backers at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! Unfortunately, I wasn’t on him, but we did cash both of our placement bets this week—Jason Day T20 (+110) and Taylor Pendrith T20 (+140).

The WM Phoenix Open marks the sixth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season.

Table of Contents

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy secured his 27th PGA TOUR victory last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, closing with a final-round 66 to claim a two-shot win over Shane Lowry.

Nick Taylor

Nick Taylor returns as the defending champion of the WM Phoenix Open, having finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in 2023 before claiming the title last year. He’s already found success this season, winning the Sony Open in Hawaii by defeating Nico Echavarria in a playoff.

Scottie Scheffler

The World No. 1 and reigning FedExCup Champion is making his sixth appearance at TPC Scottsdale, where he’s been dominant. A two-time WM Phoenix Open champion (2022, 2023), Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four starts at this event. His 2022 victory at TPC Scottsdale marked the first of his 13 career TOUR wins.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: February 6th – February 9th, 2025
  • Location: Scottsdale, Arizona, United States
  • Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
  • Course Type: Desert
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,261 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Poa trivialis / bentgrass / ryegrass overseed
  • Fairways: Ryegrass / fine fescue overseed
  • Rough: Ryegrass / fine fescue overseed
  • Bunkers: 67
  • Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $9,200,000 /$1,656,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field: 132 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death – 18, 18, 17, 18 (repeated)
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2024: 69.90 (-1.10), Rank 25 of 51
    • 2023: 70.98 (-0.02), Rank 17 of 49
    • 2022: 70.29 (-0.71), Rank 26 of 50
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2024: -2
    • 2023: E
    • 2022: -2

Social Media:

Course Information:

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris (1986)
  • Renovations: Tom Weiskopf (2014)

Comparable Courses

  • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship – RESULTS
  • TPC Summerlin – Shriners Children’s Open – RESULTS

Comparable Location (Scottsdale, Arizona, United States):

  • TPC Summerlin – Las Vegas, Nevada – Shriners Children’s Open
  • Summit Club – Las Vegas, Nevada – THE CJ CUP 2021
  • Black Desert Resort – Ivins, Utah – Black Desert Championship

Designer Link (Tom Weiskopf):

  • TPC Craig Ranch – Tom Weiskopf (2004) – CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Comparable Yardage (7,261 Yards):

  • TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
  • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship
  • Farmers Insurance Open – 7,258 Yards – Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course)

Comparable Greens (Poa trivialis / bentgrass / ryegrass overseed):

  • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis / velvet bentgrass .100” – THE PLAYERS Championship

Comparable Average Green Size (7,069 sq. ft.)

  • PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – 7, 000 sq. ft. – The American Express
  • Vidanta Vallarta – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Mexico Open at Vidanta
  • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Texas Children’s Houston Open
  • The Renaissance Club – 7, 000 sq. ft. – Genesis Scottish Open
  • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic
  • Black Desert Resort – 7,000 sq. ft. – Black Desert Championship
  • Waialae Country Club – 7,100 sq. ft. – Sony Open in Hawaii

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Thursday, February 6th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, February 7th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 9:15 AM – 4:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, February 8th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
    • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, February 9th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 10:30 APM – 1:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
    • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

TPC Scottsdale, home of the WM Phoenix Open, opened in 1986 and quickly became one of the most recognizable courses on the PGA TOUR. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, the course was built to host a TOUR event, offering a challenging yet spectator-friendly layout. The Stadium Course, the tournament’s primary venue, is famous for its dramatic finishing stretch, highlighted by the par-3 16th hole, which has evolved into the most iconic amphitheater setting in golf. Over the years, TPC Scottsdale has undergone renovations, including a 2014 redesign by Weiskopf to modernize the course and enhance playability.

The WM Phoenix Open, often referred to as “The People’s Open,” has a rich history dating back to its inception in 1932. Originally played at Phoenix Country Club, the tournament moved to TPC Scottsdale in 1987, where it has since become one of the most electric events on the PGA TOUR. Known for its raucous crowds, the event’s signature par-3 16th hole—often called “The Coliseum”—transforms into a stadium-like setting, creating an unmatched atmosphere in professional golf. Over the years, legends like Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Phil Mickelson, and Tiger Woods have left their mark on the event, with Mickelson holding the record for the most wins (three). The tournament is also recognized for its strong charitable efforts, with proceeds benefiting local organizations through The Thunderbirds, a civic group that has run the event since 1939.

Previous Tournament Venues:

DurationCourseNotes
1987–PresentTPC ScottsdaleCurrent venue
1975–1986Arizona Country ClubHosted before moving to TPC Scottsdale
1956–1974Phoenix Country ClubReturned to original venue
1955Arizona Country ClubOne-year move
1944–1954Phoenix Country ClubReturned after WWII
No Tournament1941–1943Canceled due to World War II
1939–1940Phoenix Country ClubResumed play
No Tournament1934, 1936–1938Tournament not held
1932–1933, 1935Phoenix Country ClubOriginal host course

Previous Tournament Names:

DurationTournament Name
2022-PresentWM Phoenix Open
2010-2021Waste Management Phoenix Open
2004-2009FBR Open
1972-2003Phoenix Open
1957-1971Phoenix Open Invitational
1951-1956Phoenix Open
1950Ben Hogan Open
1935, 1939-1940, 1944-1949Phoenix Open
1932-1933Arizona Open

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Tournament – WM Phoenix Open):
    • 256, Phil Mickelson (2013 – TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course))

  • 18-Hole Record (Tournament – WM Phoenix Open):
    • 60, Nick Taylor (2024), Phil Mickelson (2013), Phil Mickelson (2005), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996)
  • Largest Margin of Victory (Tournament – WM Phoenix Open):
    • 14 Strokes – Johnny Miller (1975)
  • Most Wins at Event:
    • 3, Phil Mickelson (2013, 2005, 1996), Mark Calcavecchi (1989, 1992, 2001), Gene Littler (1969, 1959, 1955), Arnold Palmer (1961, 1962, 1963)

Course Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)):
    • 256, Phil Mickelson (2013 – TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course))

  • 18-Hole Record (TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)):
    • 60, Nick Taylor (2024), Phil Mickelson (2013), Phil Mickelson (2005), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Scottsdale, originally designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, underwent a significant renovation in 2014, led by Weiskopf. The updates modernized the course, enhancing bunker placements, improving greens, and refining turf conditions to increase the challenge.

This Par 71 course stretches 7,216 yards and features four par 3s, twelve par 4s, and two par 5s. As a classic desert layout, its firm fairways allow shorter hitters to stay competitive, while elevation provides extra distance off the tee. However, accuracy is key, as TPC Scottsdale boasts some of the narrowest fairways on TOUR, making precision off the tee a crucial factor this week.

The four Par 3’s range from 163 to 215 yards. Last year, the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average over par were No. 7 and No. 12.

No. 16, 163 yards, Par 3: This is the signature hole on the course and what most spectators come to the event for. It’s truly an atmosphere, unlike any other hole on the PGA Tour. Several bunkers surround the green which is the only threat players will face.

There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 11.

No. 14, 490 Yards, Par 4: This is another challenging hole that also played over par last year. Off the tee, players will have an uphill shot that’s fairly straightforward. The difficulty comes into play on their approach shot with an elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. If players do miss left of the putting surface it’ll make an up-and-down significantly more difficult.

No. 17, 332 yards, Par 4: This is a drivable short par 4 that players will need to compose themselves for after playing the 16th. Water does come into play along the left side so any miss should be right.

There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 13, and No. 15. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024. Hole No. 13 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.521 below par.

No. 3, 558 yards, Par 5: This is the first Par 5 that players will face on the course. Off the tee, players will try to avoid fairway bunkers along the left side allowing them to go for the green in two. They’ll face a two-tiered green on their approach shot which can lead to some difficult putts depending on the pin location.

No. 15, 553 yards, Par 5: This is a thrilling risk-reward Par 5 that plays a crucial role in the tournament’s closing stretch. A well-struck tee shot favoring the left side sets up an aggressive approach, but water guards the front and left of the green, punishing any mis-hit attempts to reach in two. Players laying up must navigate a fairway that narrows near the water, leaving a short iron or wedge into a firm, undulating green.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

Key Statistics:

The WM Phoenix Open takes place on the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

StatisticsPGA Tour AverageTPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)283.47295.62
Driving Accuracy62%59%
GIR Percentage66%67%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)29.0831.92
Scrambling Percentage58%59%
Avg 3 Putts / Round0.550.55

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course).

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
    • TPC Scottsdale rewards players who can drive the ball long and accurately. With firm fairways and a desert layout, setting up quality approach shots starts with strong tee play. Over the past nine WM Phoenix Open editions, eight winners have ranked 20th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Luke Clanton
      • Matthias Schmid
      • Daniel Berger
      • Samuel Stevens
      • Min Woo Lee
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Bud Cauley
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Gary Woodland
      • Maverick McNealy

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past nine editions of the WM Phoenix Open, seven of the winners have ranked 9th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Lucas Glover
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Antoine Rozner
      • McClure (Mac) Meissner
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Charley Hoffman
      • Joohyung (Tom) Kim

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Firm and Fast)
    • The green complexes at TPC Scottsdale have historically been ‘Firm’ and ‘Fast’. Over the past seven WM Phoenix Open editions, every winner has ranked 18th or higher in Strokes Gained: Putting among the field.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Max Homa
      • Sahith Theegala
      • Taylor Moore
      • Denny McCarthy
      • Brendon Todd
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Wyndham Clark
      • Taylor Montgomery
      • Sam Ryder

  • Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
    • Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) range from 175-200 Yards.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Rickie Fowler
      • Nick Taylor
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Austin Eckroat
      • Lucas Glover
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Denny McCarthy
      • Nicolas (Nico) Echavarria
      • Samuel Stevens

  • Par 4 Scoring: 400-500 Yards
    • Ten of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) range from 400-500 Yards.
    • Leaders in this Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • J.T. Poston
      • Greyson Sigg
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Joel Dahmen
      • Robert MacIntyre
      • Rickie Fowler
      • Austin Eckroat
      • Lucas Glover
    • Leaders in this Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Joe Highsmith
      • Eric Cole
      • Austin Eckroat
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Lee Hodges
      • Carson Young
      • Corey Conners
      • Justin Thomas
      • Henrik Norlander
      • Daniel Berger

  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
    • All three of the Par 5’s at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) range from 550-600 Yards.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Min Woo Lee
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Gary Woodland
      • Kevin Streelman
      • Andrew Novak
      • Luke Clanton
      • Kyoung-Hoon (KH) Lee
      • Brice Garnett
      • Max Greyserman
      • Sami Valimaki

  • Birdies or Better Gained
    • TPC Scottsdale historically demands low scoring to contend. With three of the last four winners posting a winning score of -19 or better, players need to consistently convert birdie opportunities to keep pace.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Sam Burns
      • Max Greyserman
      • Luke Clanton
      • Joe Highsmith
      • Scottie Scheffler
      • Harry Hall
      • Sahith Theegala
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Jesper Svensson
      • Si Woo Kim

  • Scrambling Gained
    • With firm conditions, tricky run-off areas, and strategically placed bunkers, players will inevitably find themselves in situations where they need to get up and down to save par.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Wyndham Clark
      • Nicolai Hojgaard
      • Brendon Todd
      • Brian Campbell
      • Justin Thomas
      • Bud Cauley
      • Akshay Bhatia
      • Eric Cole
      • Harry Hall
      • Kurt Kitayama

  • Proximity Gained: 150-200 Yards
    • The WM Phoenix Open sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 150-200 yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Ben Kholes
    • Nicolas (Nico) Echavarria
    • Andrew Novak
    • Joohyung (Tom) Kim
    • Brice Garnett
    • Michael Kim
    • Patton Kizzire
    • Rikuya Hoshino
    • Max Homa
    • Scottie Scheffler
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Nicolai Hojgaard
    • Ben Martin
    • Max McGreevy
    • Henrik Norlander
    • Matt McCarty
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Nick Dunlap
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Antoine Rozner
    • Andrew Putnam

  • Comparable Courses and Event History
    • The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at TPC Scottsdale has been a strong predictor of future performance in this tournament. Each of the past eight winners has played in this tournament before winning and has registered a top-10 finish or better.
  • Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)):
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Justin Thomas
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Nick Taylor
    • Sam Burns
    • Jordan Spieth
    • Billy Horschel
    • Matthew Fitzpatrick
    • Max Homa

The Field:

This year’s WM Phoenix Open will feature a total of 132 competitors.

Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

  • Winner of Masters Tournament (five-year exemption)
  • Winner of U.S. Open (five-year exemption)
  • Winner of PGA Championship (five-year exemption)
  • Winner of The Open Championship (five-year exemption)
  • Winner of Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, the Memorial Tournament and The Genesis Invitational (three-year exemption)
  • Winner of World Golf Championship event (three-year exemption)
  • PGA TOUR tournament winner (two-year exemption)
  • Career money exemption
  • Sponsor exemption (DP World Tour, Korn Ferry Tour, Q-School)
  • Sponsor exemption (PGA TOUR members not otherwise exempt)
  • Sponsor exemption (unrestricted)
  • PGA Section Champion
  • Top 30 on prior season’s FedExCup points list
  • Top 70 on prior season’s FedExCup points list
  • Top 125 from prior season’s FedExCup Fall points list
  • Major medical extension
  • PGA TOUR University No. 1 from prior season
  • Top 10 (not otherwise exempt) from prior year’s DP World Tour

Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

  • Nick Taylor (2024), Scottie Scheffler (2023, 2022), Rickie Fowler (2019), Gary Woodland (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016)

Debutants in the Field (Event):

  • Antoine Rozner, Brian Campbell, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Frankie Capan III, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jesper Svensson, Joe Highsmith, Jose Luis Ballester Barrio, Kristoffer Ventura, Luke Clanton, Mac Meissner, Matt McCarty, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Michael Thorbjornsen, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Patrick Fishburn, Paul Waring, Rafael Campos, Rasmus Hojgaard, Rico Hoey, Rikuya Hoshino, Steven Fisk, Taylor Dickson, Thriston Lawrence, Tim Widing

Sponsors Exemptions:

  • Jose Luis Ballester Barrio – Unrestricted
  • Frankie Capan III – DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
  • Luke Clanton – Unrestricted
  • Chez Reavie – Unrestricted
  • Kevin Streelman – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt

Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

  • Viktor Hovland – WD; Paul Waring – IN

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

  • Will There Be a Playoff at the WM Phoenix Open? (Yes +350 / No -500)

A playoff has decided the winner of the WM Phoenix Open in three of the last five years.

Hole-in-One:

  • Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the WM Phoenix Open? (Yes -115/ No -110)

Recent Horses for Courses (Event):

WM Phoenix OpenWM Phoenix OpenWM Phoenix OpenWaste Management Phoenix OpenWaste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
GolferEvents PlayedStrokes Gained: Total20242023202220212020
Scottie Scheffler5+52.273WONWON7MC
Justin Thomas10+46.091248133
Hideki Matsuyama11+26.10222984216
Sahith Theegala3+25.985393
Kurt Kitayama2+13.08823
Matthew Fitzpatrick3+18.98152910
Jordan Spieth8+24.3066604MC

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):

WM Phoenix OpenWM Phoenix OpenWM Phoenix OpenWaste Management Phoenix OpenWaste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
GolferEvents PlayedStrokes Gained: Total20242023202220212020
Chez Reavie16-12.57MCMCMCMCMC
Brandt Snedeker15-15.98MCMCMC
Peter Malnati6-12.99MCMC65MC
C.T. Pan7-16.73MCMCMC63
Vincent Whaley2-16.37MCMC
Mackenzie Hughes5-7.00MCMC
Chad Ramey2-6.96MCMC
David Lipsky2-5.96MCMC
Lee Hodges2-4.96MCMC
Adam Svensson2-4.96MCMC
William Gordon2-5.37MCMC
Sepp Straka3-13.5366MCMC

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

  • 2024: Nick Taylor (-21)
    • Price: 100-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Nick Taylor42nd6th9th14th1st
  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
    • Price: 16-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler 18th1st1st19th13th
  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16)
    • Price: 25-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler 4th13th55th8th2nd
  • 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
    • Price: 50-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Brooks Koepka11th2nd2nd32nd18th
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
    • Price: 14-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Webb Simpson19th2nd1st11th12th

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2024: Nick Taylor
    • T71 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
    • MC – The American Express (PGA)
    • T7 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
    • T52 – The Sentry (PGA)
    • T21 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler
    • T11 – The American Express (PGA)
    • T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
    • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
    • T9 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
    • T3 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)

  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler
    • T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
    • T25 – The American Express (PGA)
    • 2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
    • T57 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
    • T2 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)

  • 2021: Brooks Koepka
    • MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
    • MC – The American Express (PGA)
    • MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
    • T7 – The Masters (MAJ)
    • T5 – Vivint Houston Open (PGA)

  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
    • 3 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
    • T10 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
    • 2 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
    • T7 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
    • T16 – TOUR Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Nick Taylor

WM Phoenix OpenWM Phoenix OpenWaste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
 202320222021202020192018201720162015
Nick Taylor2MCMCT49MCT52MCT65T59

2023: Scottie Scheffler

WM Phoenix OpenWaste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
 202220212020
Scottie SchefflerWONT7MC

2022: Scottie Scheffler

Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
 20212020
Scottie SchefflerT7MC

2021: Brooks Koepka

Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
 201720162015
Brooks KoepkaT42T41WON

2020: Webb Simpson

Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
Waste Management
Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
TPC Scottsdale
(Stadium Course)
 201920182017201620142012201120102009
Webb SimpsonT20MC2T1410T8T8MC65

Picks:

Outrights

Sungjae Im (+2200) – FanDuel

Risk 0.37 Units to win 8.14 Units

Sam Burns (+2500) – FanDuel

Risk 0.32 Units to win 8.00 Units

Joohyung (Tom) Kim (+3300) – FanDuel

Risk 0.25 Units to win 8.25 Units

Kurt Kitayama (+6000) – FanDuel

Risk 0.14 Units to win 8.40 Units

Maverick McNealy (+6000) – FanDuel

Risk 0.14 Units to win 8.40 Units

Top 20 (Inc. Ties)

Sahith Theegala (+175) – BetMGM

Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.75 Units

Billy Horschel (+200) – BetMGM

Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.00 Units

Andrew Novak (+240) – BetMGM

Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.20 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

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