The Blue Jays vs. Mariners matchup tonight (July 3, 2026) at T‑Mobile Park is shaping up as a tight, pitching‑driven game with both teams hovering around .500 and fighting to stay relevant in the playoff race. Seattle enters with a four‑game home win streak, while Toronto is trying to stabilize after an inconsistent stretch.
⚾ Quick Takeaway
This game likely comes down to Luis Castillo’s volatility vs. Dylan Cease’s strikeout dominance. Seattle has the better home form and more power, but Toronto has the stronger starting pitcher on paper. Expect a low‑scoring, tense matchup.
🔥 Pitching Matchup
Dylan Cease (TOR)
4–4, 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 128 K
Elite strikeout stuff, limits hard contact
Toronto’s best weapon tonight — if he’s sharp, Seattle’s offense could be quiet
Luis Castillo (SEA)
3–6, 4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 73 K
Still capable of dominance, but has been inconsistent
Mariners need him to avoid early damage; home crowd helps
📊 Team Form & Context
Seattle Mariners (45–43)
Riding a four‑game home win streak
25–19 at home — strong home‑field advantage
Rank 6th in AL in home runs (105 HR) — power is their edge
Previous game outcomes: WWWLL (from sports card)
Toronto Blue Jays (41–46)
17–21 on the road — below average away from home
Pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA, 8th in AL — quietly solid
Previous game outcomes: WLWLL (from sports card)
🧠 What Actually Decides This Game
1. Cease’s Strikeouts vs. Mariners’ Power
Seattle hits homers in bunches, but Cease’s strikeout rate can neutralize that. If he’s locating the slider, Seattle’s offense may stall.
2. Castillo’s Command
If Castillo avoids walks and keeps the ball down, Toronto’s offense — which has been inconsistent — may struggle to string hits together.
3. Bullpen Stability
Both teams have had shaky late‑inning performances this season. A one‑run game is very possible.
📈 Betting & Odds Snapshot
Moneyline: TOR -132 | SEA +108
Total: 7 runs
Alternate line: TOR +106 | SEA -128 (Doc’s Sports)
The market leans slightly toward Toronto because of Cease, but Seattle’s home form makes this far from a free square.
🔥 Pitching Matchup — Advanced Metrics
Dylan Cease (TOR)
3.02 ERA | 3.41 FIP | 3.28 xFIP | 1.24 WHIP
31.2% K% (elite)
7.8% BB% (solid)
14.9% swinging‑strike rate
.287 xwOBA allowed
Stuff+ rating: 118 (above average)
Cease’s slider has a 41% whiff rate, and his four‑seamer plays up in T‑Mobile’s spacious outfield. If he’s locating, Seattle’s offense — which is power‑heavy but swing‑and‑miss prone — could be neutralized. Explore more: Cease pitch profile
Luis Castillo (SEA)
4.93 ERA | 4.21 FIP | 4.38 xFIP | 1.36 WHIP
22.4% K% (down from career norms)
8.9% BB%
10.7% swinging‑strike rate
.331 xwOBA allowed
Stuff+ rating: 102 (slightly above average)
Castillo’s underlying numbers suggest he’s been better than his ERA, but he’s giving up more barrels:
9.8% barrel rate allowed (career high)
43% hard‑hit rate
Toronto’s lineup isn’t elite, but they do punish mistakes. Explore more: Castillo volatility
📊 Team Advanced Metrics
Seattle Mariners (45–43)
Team wRC+: 101 (slightly above average)
Team OPS: .721
HR: 105 (6th in AL)
Team ERA: 3.98
Bullpen ERA: 3.72 (Top 5)
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): +14
Home record: 25–19
Seattle’s offense is boom‑or‑bust:
25.8% K% (bottom 5)
10.1% BB% (top 10)
.319 xwOBA (middle tier)
They rely heavily on home runs and late‑inning bullpen strength. Explore more: Mariners offensive profile
Toronto Blue Jays (41–46)
Team wRC+: 98 (slightly below average)
Team OPS: .703
Team ERA: 4.09
Bullpen ERA: 4.21
DRS: +6
Road record: 17–21
Toronto’s offense is inconsistent but has improved in high‑leverage situations:
Clutch rating: +0.42 (Fangraphs)
.311 xwOBA (middle tier)
Their biggest edge tonight is Cease. Explore more: Blue Jays lineup breakdown
🧠 Key Advanced Factors That Decide This Game
1. Mariners’ HR Power vs. Cease’s Strikeout Suppression
Seattle’s offense ranks:
Top 6 in HR
Bottom 5 in contact rate
Cease’s elite K% directly counters their strength.
2. Castillo’s Barrel Problem
Toronto’s top hitters have:
Vlad Jr.: 12.1% barrel rate
Bichette: 10.4%
If Castillo leaves pitches up, Toronto can steal early runs.
3. Bullpen Leverage Performance
Seattle:
High‑leverage ERA: 2.91 Toronto:
High‑leverage ERA: 4.48
🎯 Prediction
The Mariners at home at plus money is something that we need to look at. I know that starting pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled, but Toronto’s guy in Dylan Cease is only 4-4 with a 1.24 WHIP.
Toronto has been a shell of themselves from last year only ranking 21st in runs created wRC+ while the Mariners sit at 14th.
I like that the Mariners bullpen is healthy while the Blue Jays should be down Patrick Corbin and Spencer Miles. Seattle’s Bullpen ranks 2nd in FIP compared to Toronto’s bullpen at 12th respectively.
Another creative handicap here is that it’s 4th of July weekend and Seattle is playing a Canadian team. The plus money looks good here.
The AFC South was a pretty tricky division last year. The Colts looked like clear frontrunners until they lost their quarterback, which spun them straight into chaos. The Texans started out looking like the worst team in football, but somehow had the best defense in the NFL — a combination that kept them relevant and pushed them into a wildcard spot and two playoff wins. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were probably the most complete team in the division, but they managed to choke away their playoff hopes on that final drive against Josh Allen and the Bills. And then there were the Titans, who were once again embarrassed until former coach Mike Vrabel kindly took the spotlight off them during the offseason and put it squarely on himself. If you want to revisit that drama, the Vrabel fallout is still something.
For 2026–2027, I expect more fight from this division. The AFC South draws the AFC North and the NFC East for its conference schedules, which I’d call a medium difficulty — not a gauntlet, but definitely not a vacation. The interesting part is that the top three teams all feel like they have an equal shot at winning this division. No true favorite, no true doormat, just a cluster of flawed but dangerous teams. If you want to explore that parity, the AFC South balance is one of the most intriguing storylines.
Best Bet: Jaguars over 8.5 wins -125 & to make playoffs +110
Odds to win the division:
Texans +110
Jaguars +245
Colts +380
Titans +800
AFC South – Full Offensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
IND
0.083 (7)
46.7% (7)
0.104 (11)
0.052 (3)
47.9% (15)
44.9% (10)
JAX
0.039 (12)
44.5% (15)
0.110 (10)
-0.073 (21)
47.9% (15)
39.3% (24)
HOU
-0.008 (22)
41.7% (28)
0.083 (17)
-0.149 (31)
45.7% (26)
35.6% (31)
TEN
-0.148 (30)
37.9% (31)
-0.165 (31)
-0.117 (27)
38.0% (32)
37.5% (27)
AFC South – Full Defensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
HOU
-0.108 (2)
39.5% (2)
-0.097 (2)
-0.129 (3)
40.6% (2)
37.7% (7)
JAX
-0.079 (5)
42.4% (9)
-0.067 (6)
-0.106 (7)
45.0% (12)
36.4% (6)
IND
0.013 (16)
45.7% (16)
0.078 (17)
-0.101 (8)
48.0% (20)
41.6% (20)
TEN
0.106 (28)
45.4% (15)
0.201 (28)
-0.043 (20)
49.7% (26)
38.7% (10)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -125
2025 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 11.36
Schedule: Medium – at large @ The Broncos vs The Patriots, @ The Bears,
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: LB Devin Lloyd, RB Travis Etienne, CB Greg Newsome, S Andrew Wingard, Edge Emmanuel Ogbah
Key additions: RB Christian Rodriguez Jr., RB Ammeer Abdullah, CB Dane Jackson
Key Draft Picks: TE Nate Boerkirchner, DT Albert Regis, G Emmanuel Pregnon
Summary:
Going from four wins to thirteen was the story of the Jaguars last year. I was plenty happy myself, considering I bet them to make the playoffs and go over 7.5 wins. The problem, of course, was running into the Bills in the postseason, where experience mattered and Jacksonville learned that lesson the hard way. Even so, this Jaguars team was quietly top five in my power ratings. For this season, I’m torn — regression is possible, but they also have the pieces to take another step forward. If you want to revisit that leap, the Jaguars rise still stands out.
The Jaguars definitely felt the ripple effects of the Travis Hunter trade from 2025 when they entered the 2026 draft without a first‑round pick. Their first selection didn’t come until the late 50s, and I still don’t know what they were thinking. Hunter is basically just a decent cornerback at this point. Will he be used more at wide receiver this year? Maybe — but that’s also tied to the fact that Brian Thomas Jr. took a huge step back from his impressive rookie season in 2024. For more on that uncertainty, the Hunter experiment is worth watching.
The Jaguars also lost Trevor Lawrence’s longtime running mate, Travis Etienne, to free agency. I don’t mind that as much because Byahshul Tuten was an absolute beast last season, but the depth behind him is thin. In general, I like the playmakers on this roster. No massive names, but a bunch of guys who can get the job done. The offense should be fine after ranking 12th in EPA per play last year. If you want to dig deeper, the Jaguars offense remains one of the more balanced units in the league.
Defense is where things get tricky. The money wasn’t there to keep everyone, and losing linebacker Devin Lloyd and cornerback Greg Newsome could sting. They also cheaped out replacing Emmanuel Ogbah, leaving them with almost no depth at edge. I expect this defense to regress from its fifth‑place EPA ranking, while the hope is that the offense improves enough to offset it. The good news is that I really like coach Liam Cohen, and there’s continuity with Grant Udinski at offensive coordinator and Anthony Campanile running the defense. For more on that stability, the Jaguars coaching staff is a real strength.
One thing to keep in mind: the Texans were the number‑one team in fumble luck last year, giving away only three fumbles while taking ten from opponents. That kind of swing tends to regress. The Jaguars’ schedule isn’t exactly easy either, with the Broncos, Patriots, and Bears as their at‑large opponents. It could be worse — at least they avoided the Seahawks — but it’s still a tough draw.
All in all, I like the players and the coaching staff. The Jaguars will be in my top six or seven teams to start the season, but I’ll be monitoring them closely.
My Number: 10.68
Action – Jaguars over 8.5 wins -125 & to make playoffs +110
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: 3.25
2. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -125
2025 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.67
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Bills, @ LA Chargers, @ Packers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Tim Settle, WR Christian Kirk, LB Christian Harris, S Jimmy Ward, Edge Denico Autry, RB Joe Mixon, DT Mario Edwards, Edge Derek Barnette, DT Foley Fatukasi, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: RB David Montgomery, S Reed Blankenship, T Braden Smith, G Wyatt Teller, DT Logan Hall, TE Foster Moreau, LB Jake Hummel, Edge Dominique Robinson, G Evan Brown
Key Draft Picks: G Keylan Rutgledge, DT Kayden McDonald, TE Marlin Klein, G Febechi Nwaiwu
Summary:
The Texans were absolutely in the mix at the end of last season, thanks to having the best defense in the league next to the Seahawks. The problem was that their offense was putrid, and it all started with the offensive line. The good news for 2026 is that they finally ponied up and signed actual grown‑ups who can block, like tackle Braden Smith from the Colts and guard Wyatt Teller from the Browns. At running back, David Montgomery comes in to try and make the Texans’ run game great again. If you want to dig into that overhaul, the Texans offensive rebuild is one of the biggest storylines.
The defense did take a small hit in free agency, losing some depth, but I like the way they drafted Kayden McDonald out of Ohio State to keep the trenches intact. This team could be very good if the wide receivers show up — and that’s my only real issue. Nico Collins and Tank Dell seem to always be injured, and this offense ranked 31st in rush EPA and 26th in passing success rate. They retained offensive coordinator Nick Caley, which might have been a mistake. CJ Stroud has proven he’s an NFL quarterback, but this team still has to prove it can function on offense. For more on that challenge, the Stroud–Caley dynamic is worth watching.
If they stay healthy, the Texans could easily win the division. The biggest issue is the schedule, which did them no favors: Bills, Chargers, and Packers as their at‑large opponents. That’s a rough trio for a team still trying to fix its offense. If you want to explore that difficulty, the Texans schedule is one of the tougher draws in the AFC.
I have the Texans power‑rated just a bit below the Jaguars to start the season, but not by much. This is a team with real upside — as long as the offense finally decides to participate.
My Number: 10.34
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.75
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -140
2025 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Chiefs, @ Vikings, vs Dolphins
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Michael Pittman, Edge Kwity Paye, T Braden Smith, S Nick Cross, DT Neville Gallimore, Edge Samson Ebukam, C Danny Pinter, CB Kenny Moore, Edge Tyquan Lewis
Key additions: Edge Michael Clemons, Edge Arden Key, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, DT Derrick Knadi, DT Jerry Tillery
Whom they drafted: LB CJ Allen, S AJ Haulcy, G Jalen Farmer, LB Bryce Boettcher, Edge George Gumbs Jr.
Summary:
The Colts were the best team to miss the playoffs last season, underachieving by a massive 1.93 games according to their Pythagorean win total. They should have won at least nine. Instead, a brutal injury to Daniel Jones and a complete meltdown down the stretch — losing all seven of their final games — sent them spiraling. To be fair, the Colts had it pretty easy early in the year thanks to a cake schedule, but everything fell apart once Jones went down. If you want to revisit that collapse, the Colts late‑season slide tells the whole story.
Looking at Daniel Jones, he may be ready for the regular season after the Achilles injury, but the offense took major hits. They lost left tackle Braden Smith and their top wide receiver Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce stepped up last year, but life is different when defenses start treating you like a WR1. Jonathan Taylor is back and ready to roll, but I’m concerned he can replicate last year’s hot start behind a downgraded offensive line. Last year’s top draft pick, Tyler Warren, should see more targets and hopefully score more than four touchdowns. For more on that offensive reset, the Colts skill positions are worth tracking.
Defensively, I’m just as concerned. They lost key edge rushers, a good safety, and multiple defensive tackles. The draft will have to hit for this team to maintain even a mediocre defensive rating. The Sauce‑Gardner trade has looked bad so far, but we’ll see if that changes this season. The Colts need to get to the quarterback, and they’ll need big games from their edge rushers — something I’m skeptical about. The good news is that DeForest Buckner returns, and he can both stop the run and generate pressure. If you want to dig deeper, the Colts defensive outlook is full of question marks.
The 2026 schedule ended up fine overall, aside from the brutal ‑6 net rest days. If the Colts can get the offense rolling again like it was before Danny Dimes got hurt, they’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot. But they’ll need health, defensive improvement, and a little luck — three things that haven’t exactly been their specialty.
My Number: 8.97
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -.5
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 6.5
2025 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.87
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs NY Jets, @ Lions, @ Raiders
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: Coach Brian Callahan, TE Chig Okonkwo, Edge Arden Key, DT Sebastian Joseph, CB Kalir Elam, G Kevin Zeitler, S Xavier Woods
Key additions: Coach Robert Saleh, OC Brian Daboll, DC Gus Bradley, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, DT John Franklin-Myers, CB Alontae Taylor, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, QB Mitchell Trubisky, LB Jake Martin, DT Jordan Elliot, CB Joshua Williams, C Austin Schlottman, S Tony Adams
Key Draft Picks: WR Carnell Tate, Edge Keldric Faulk, LB Anthony Hill Jr., G Fernando Carmona, RB Nicholas Singleton
Summary:
The Titans were the second‑worst team in the league by the numbers last season, ranking 30th in offensive EPA and 28th on defense. Big changes followed, with Robert Saleh brought in to try and set things right. Let’s start with the offense. I see some improvement as Cam Ward enters his sophomore season. Drafting Carnell Tate should help, even though I personally think he was picked too high, and Wan’Dale Robinson could be useful out of the slot. My problem is that this offensive line is still well below par, which will make it tough for the skill guys to get open. Another big question mark is Brian Daboll being brought in as offensive coordinator. Whatever mojo he built in Buffalo evaporated during his time coaching the Giants — and we saw that clearly with his ex‑quarterback Daniel Jones suddenly thriving in Indianapolis. Calvin Ridley will also need to play motivated, as he feels firmly in the twilight of his underwhelming career. If you want to dig deeper into this unit, the Titans offense is still a major work in progress.
On defense, I actually love the moves they made. Saleh chose to fix that side of the ball first, and most of the money went there, with a few draft picks sprinkled in. The interior defensive line will be upgraded, and the secondary should improve. The edge rushers and linebackers, though, may still be a work in progress. This feels like a team that will play slow, avoid mistakes, and try to drag opponents into low‑scoring games — meaning unders might be the way to bet them early. For more on that identity shift, the Titans defensive rebuild is worth watching.
If the offensive line develops, we can reassess where this team belongs in 2026. But for now, I rate them about six points worse than the average team. Saleh’s presence helps, the defense should stabilize, and the offense has young talent — but until the trenches improve, this team is stuck in the mud.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to discuss some NFL. First, we talk about how this summer is different than others in recent memory. Next, Kiev talks about the AFC East and the AFC West. What are the odds to win the division? Who over-achieved? Who under-achieved? What kind of moves did these teams make? How did each team fair in the draft. Kiev discusses all of this and gives out a few Best Bets! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The AFC North once again proved to be the most predictable division in football — at least for people who don’t actually watch football. In our minds, the Ravens were supposed to win this thing comfortably, but who can ever stop Mike Tomlin and this perfectly mediocre Steelers team that insists on overachieving every single year. At this point, should we even call it overachieving? Maybe we’re the real underachievers for continuing to fade them like we haven’t learned a single lesson. If you want to dig deeper into that dynamic, the Tomlin effect is always worth revisiting.
This season brings a level of organizational chaos I genuinely don’t remember seeing in one division at the same time. Three of the four teams are rolling out new head coaches, which makes the AFC North feel less like a division and more like a group project where everyone suddenly decided to start over the night before it’s due. If you want to explore how these changes might reshape things, the coaching turnover is a storyline on its own.
One thing that didn’t change much is the quarterback situation. Even Aaron Rodgers decided to wrap up his annual offseason drama a bit earlier this year — which, for him, still counts as late by normal human standards. The rest of the division stays steady under center, which might be the only stable thread holding this whole thing together. For more on that, the QB landscape is surprisingly unchanged.
The good news for everyone involved is that the AFC North gets the luxury of playing the AFC South and NFC South — easily the two softest divisions in football right now. That’s a gift-wrapped schedule boost, at least for the moment. The only wrinkle is that the AFC has the extra road game this year, so we’ll see how much that matters once the grind sets in. If you want to look at how this schedule shapes the race, the strength of schedule angle is worth watching.
Best Bet: Ravens under 11.5 wins
AFC North – Full Offensive Rankings With Actual Values (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
BAL
0.037 (13)
44.6% (12)
0.036 (21)
0.038 (3)
47.0% (12)
41.9% (12)
CIN
0.012 (19)
46.4% (10)
0.012 (23)
0.012 (5)
47.0% (13)
45.4% (4)
PIT
0.028 (18)
44.2% (16)
0.046 (18)
-0.001 (7)
44.3% (26)
44.0% (7)
CLE
-0.176 (31)
35.2% (32)
-0.212 (31)
-0.115 (27)
35.9% (32)
33.9% (31)
AFC North – Full Defensive Rankings With Actual Values (2025 EPA Data)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
CLE
-0.083 (4)
40.9% (4)
-0.088 (3)
-0.078 (15)
43.4% (8)
37.4% (5)
BAL
0.025 (18)
44.3% (16)
0.101 (21)
-0.115 (6)
46.5% (17)
40.2% (14)
PIT
0.025 (19)
43.8% (13)
0.060 (16)
-0.035 (24)
46.1% (14)
39.8% (13)
CIN
0.122 (29)
47.6% (27)
0.182 (28)
0.034 (29)
50.3% (29)
43.5% (26)
Odds to win the Division:
Ravens -115
Bengals +194
Steelers +510
Browns +2100
1. Baltimore Ravens
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.33
Schedule: Easy – At large vs Dallas*, @ Bills, vs Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: Coach John Harbaugh, C Tyler Linderbaum, TE Isaiah Likely, Edge Dremont Jones, TE Charlie Kolar, S Alohi Gilman, RB Keaton Mitchell, FB Patrick Rickard, S Ar’Darius Washington, Edge Kyle Van Noy, WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB Cooper Rush, T Joseph Noteboom
Key additions: Coach Jessee Minter, OC Declan Doyle, Edge Trey Hendrickson, G John Simpson, S Jaylinn Hawkins, DT Calais Campbell, TE Durham Smythe, C Danny Pinter
Key Draft Picks: G Olaivavega Ioane, Edge Zion Young, WR Jacobi Lane, WR Elijah Surratt, TE Matthew Hibner and a bunch of dudes
Summary:
So who had to go — Lamar Jackson or John Harbaugh? In today’s NFL, and especially in Baltimore, that question wasn’t exactly difficult to answer. What is ironic is that the Ravens replaced Harbaugh with a coach who was essentially raised by the Harbaugh family tree anyway. He comes straight from Jim’s Chargers staff after previously serving as a position coach in Baltimore about six years ago. If nothing else, there’s at least some philosophical consistency there, even if the rest of the organization feels like it’s being rewired. For more on that coaching lineage, the Harbaugh connection is worth noting.
What won’t be consistent is the offensive system. It looks like Baltimore is leaning toward a Ben Johnson–style scheme with Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyal stepping in. He’s still pretty green, and that could lead to some rough patches when working with quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, who require a very specific balance of structure and freedom. If you want to dive deeper into that fit, the Doyal offense raises plenty of questions.
Personnel changes only add to the uncertainty. The Ravens lose tight end depth with Isaiah Likely moving on, and they’ve taken real hits along the offensive line — including losing their center. The receiving group looks thin unless rookies Jacobi Lane and Elijah Surratt hit the ground running, which is never a guarantee. The Ravens skill positions feel like a work in progress.
Defensively, I expect Coach Jesse Minter to take full control, and I don’t anticipate major schematic changes. The edge group should be solid after they paid a premium for Trey Hendrickson, but I still think this team will struggle against the pass. They ranked 22nd in opponent drop‑back EPA last season, and I’m not convinced they’ve fixed that. The linebackers remain strong with Roquan Smith leading the way, but the nose tackle spot looks a little soft to me. If you want to explore that further, the Ravens defensive outlook is full of red flags.
Overall, age feels like it could catch up to this roster, and the offense will need to score consistently to keep them afloat. With all these questions — new coaches, new scheme, roster turnover, and shaky pass defense — I have to lean under their win total. It just feels too high for a team with this many unknowns.
My Number: 9.67
Action – Under 11.5 wins -140 – 1 star
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 3
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 6.77
Schedule: Easy – At large @ Dolphins, @ Commanders, vs Chiefs
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Edge Trey Hendricksen, Edge Joseph Ossai, TE Noah Fant, G Lucas Patrick, G Cordell Volson
Key additions: DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, DT Jonathan Allen, S Kyle Dugger
Somehow, the Bengals offensive line ranked seventh last year by certain metrics, and I’m still trying to figure out how that happened on a team that only won six games. Burrow played half the season, they ranked fifth in rush EPA, and yet the whole thing still felt like a car with three good tires and one that keeps hissing. Either way, Joe Burrow has to stay upright this year. The good news is that the offense didn’t lose anyone crucial, and they still have the best quarterback‑to‑wide‑receiver trio in the league. If the health cooperates, this team should put up points in bunches. Burrow will need to get the ball out quicker, though, and using Mike Gesicki more often could help take pressure off the edges. If you want to explore that fit, the Burrow–Gesicki connection is worth watching.
On defense, Al Golden returns as coordinator with something to prove, and the Bengals made real moves to fix last year’s issues. They landed one of the best nose tackles in football in Dexter Lawrence after that big first‑round pick trade, and they added Super Bowl–winning edge rusher Boye Mafe. Losing Hendrickson won’t matter much since he barely played last season anyway. The Bengals ranked 29th in defensive EPA, and if they can climb to even league average, they’re absolutely capable of winning this division. For more on that turnaround potential, the Bengals defensive rebuild is a major storyline.
My hesitation remains with Zach Taylor. Sometimes the players are so good that the coaching almost gets in the way, and this might be one of those situations. Peyton Manning once won a Super Bowl with the Colts while basically coaching himself, and this roster has shades of that dynamic. The most consistent thing about the Bengals, though, is that they start slow every single year. I have to assume that happens again. The smart play is to fade them early and jump back in after Week 2 or 3. If you want to track that trend, the Bengals early‑season pattern is something bettors know all too well.
My Number: 9.89
Action: Bengals to win AFC +1000 – .25 stars
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: -2
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -120
2025 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.12
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Patriots, @ Eagles, vs Broncos
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Mike Tomlin, G Isaac Seumalo, RB Kenneth Gainwell, CB James Pierre, TE Conner Heyward, S Miles Killebrew, WR Calvin Austin, TE Jonnu Smith, DT Daniel Ekuale
Key additions: Coach Mike McCarthy, OC Brian Angelichio, DC Patrick Graham, WR Michael Pittman, CB Jamel Dean, RB Rico Dowdle, DT Sebastian Joseph, S Jaquon Brisker, C Brock Hoffman
Key Draft Picks: T Max Iheanachor, WR Germie Bernard, QB Drew Allar, CB Daylen Everette and a bunch of dudes
Summary:
If I had to think of a worse person to hire to coach Aaron Rodgers, it would take me a while to come up with a better (or worse) choice than Mike McCarthy. As a Bears fan, I personally enjoyed every second of their breakup and the blame‑fest that followed in Green Bay. Looking back at last season, this team massively overachieved again, winning ten games despite a Pythagorean win total hovering around eight. With all the coaching changes, it’s tough to lean too heavily on last year’s results, but there are still some clear trends worth noting. For more on that dynamic, the Rodgers–McCarthy history is always entertaining.
Offensively, I think coordinator Brian Angelichio might be fine after learning under Kevin O’Connell, but the defensive coordinator coming over from the Raiders is… not inspiring. He’s part of the NFL’s “boys club,” the group of coaches who keep getting recycled from team to team regardless of performance. The Michael Pittman trade looks serviceable, but let’s not forget how badly the DK Metcalf experiment went last year. Somehow the better receiver, Calvin Austin, was the one who had to go. If you want to dig deeper into that roster shuffle, the Steelers receiver situation is a mixed bag.
Statistically, the Steelers were a slightly below‑average defensive team and a very good rushing team thanks to Kenneth Gainwell. The real issue was the passing game, which ranked 26th in success rate — a number that explains a lot about their offensive ceiling. The draft didn’t help much either after the first pick. I still have no idea why you take Drew Allar when you just drafted Howard last year. On the bright side, I do like the defensive additions of Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker. The secondary should improve as long as T.J. Watt stays healthy and keeps terrorizing quarterbacks. The weak spot could be middle linebacker, because I’m not exactly a Patrick Queen believer. For more on that, the Steelers defensive outlook is worth tracking.
All in all, I just can’t imagine Mike McCarthy stepping in and leading this team to the promised land. At best, I see an average team — talented enough to hang around, flawed enough to frustrate you. I’m not betting the under anymore, but I’m definitely not buying the hype either.
My Number: 8.56
Action – No Play
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1
4. Cleveland Browns
Vegas win total: 5.5 Juiced to the over -150
2025 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.92
Schedule: Easy – At large @ NY Jets, vs Raiders, @ NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Kevin Stefanski, Edge Myles Garrett, G Wyatt Teller, Edge Cam Thomas, DT Shelby Harris, TE David Njoku, T Jack Conklin, G Joel Bitonio, T Cam Robinson, C Ethan Pocic, T Cornelius Lucas
Key additions: Coach Todd Monken, OC Travis Switzer, DC Mike Rutenberg, Edge Jared Verse, QB DeShaun Watson, G Zion Johnson, C Elgton Jenkins, LB Quincy Williams, G Teven Jenkins, S Daniel Thomas, DT Kalia Davis
Key Draft Picks: T Spencer Fano, WR KC Concepcion, WR Denzel Boston, S Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren, T Austin Barber, C Parker Brailsford, LB Justin Jefferson, QB Talen Green
Summary:
The Browns do Browns things. You know — like trading the best player in football. Do I disagree with it? Not necessarily, if you’re the Browns, but it’s still pathetic to watch unfold. Either way, we’re going to see a completely new version of this team with a new head coach and a quarterback who hasn’t played more than nineteen games since 2021. There are so many changes here that it’s almost impossible to get a firm grasp on what this team will actually be. If you want to explore that chaos, the Browns overhaul is a full reset.
Let’s start with the coaching staff. I never liked Kevin Stefanski as much as the media did, but while the rest of the league is hiring young offensive minds, the Browns went with Todd Monken — a guy in his early sixties. I honestly have no idea how this will go, especially with Travis Switzer coming in from a long tenure with the Ravens as offensive coordinator. It’s hard to imagine a smooth first year. For more on that dynamic, the Monken hire raises plenty of questions.
Then there’s the quarterback situation. I don’t even know if Deshaun Watson is good anymore. I don’t know if Shedeur Sanders could politic his way into the starting job over him. What I do know is that the Browns will be rolling out a brand‑new offensive line that’s going to take time to gel. They have some solid running backs and exactly one decent wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy — at least until we see what the draft picks become. The Browns offensive outlook feels shaky at best.
Defensively, the Browns somehow ranked fourth in defensive EPA last year. How much of that was Myles Garrett being a one‑man wrecking crew? How much was opponents running the clock out while up multiple scores? New defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg comes in from the Falcons, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The good news is that linebacker Carson Schwesinger was a rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy 2025 season, and he gives this defense at least one reliable anchor. If you want to dig deeper, the Browns defensive identity is still very much in flux.
For this season, I expect the offense to start out rough while the defense keeps games low‑scoring. Early in the year, this feels like a team you take a lot of unders on.
The Cubs and Brewers meet in Milwaukee with both teams riding four‑game win streaks, setting up a high‑stakes NL Central showdown. The Brewers sit at 49–29, leading the division, while the Cubs are 44–37 and trying to close the gap.
🔥 Pitching Matchup
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 8–3, 1.45 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 138 K — one of the most dominant arms in baseball this season.
Colin Rea (CHC): 5–5, 4.99 ERA — inconsistent, but the Cubs have been winning behind timely hitting.
This matchup heavily favors Milwaukee on the mound.
📊 Team Form & Edges
Brewers: Elite pitching staff with a 3.38 team ERA, second‑best in MLB. They’re also strong at home (25–15).
Cubs: Offense is streaky but improving; they’ve gone 10–3 in their last 13 despite major pitching injuries.
Milwaukee swept the Cubs in their only previous series this season.
⚾ What to Watch
Can the Cubs’ offense stay hot against one of the league’s toughest rotations?
Will Misiorowski continue his Cy Young–level dominance?
Can Chicago steal one on the road to tighten the NL Central race?
ubs vs. Brewers — Advanced Stats Preview
June 26, 2026 • Milwaukee
Both teams enter on four‑game win streaks, but Milwaukee holds the edge in underlying metrics — especially on the mound.
🔥 Pitching Matchup (Advanced Metrics)
Jacob Misiorowski — Brewers
1.45 ERA | 2.21 FIP | 2.48 xERA | 2.35 xFIP
0.75 WHIP | 38.2% K% | 6.1% BB%
Stuff+ 132 | Pitching+ 129
Opponents hitting .158 xBA
Generates 31% CSW (elite)
Fastball averages 99.1 mph, top 3% in MLB
Takeaway: Misiorowski isn’t just dominant — his peripherals say he’s sustainably dominant.
Colin Rea — Cubs
4.99 ERA | 4.61 FIP | 4.78 xERA | 4.55 xFIP
1.39 WHIP | 17.4% K% | 8.9% BB%
Stuff+ 92 | Pitching+ 94
Hard‑hit rate allowed: 43% (bottom 20%)
Takeaway: Rea is a pitch‑to‑contact arm facing one of the league’s most disciplined lineups — not ideal.
Profile: Streaky offense, shaky pitching, and below‑average defense — but currently hot.
⚾ Key Advanced Matchups
Brewers vs RHP: 112 wRC+
Cubs vs RHP: 98 wRC+
Brewers Hard‑Hit Rate: 41%
Cubs Hard‑Hit Rate Allowed: 42%
Prediction:
The Cubs are coming off an away sweep of the Mets which in turn caused the Mets to fire their manager Chris Mendoza.
Looking at the Cubs bullpen and poor performing starting Pitcher Colin Rea, one would think this is a perfect spot to bet the Brewers coming off of a day of rest.
I would usually agree with that, but it’s not like this price justifies it. The Brewers are MASSIVE favorites here against a hot Cubs team who should be able to keep it close through their offense.
Whenever a solid offensive team like the Cubs are this big of dogs, you have to look at it. I do not assume that the Miz is going to finish the whole game. I think that Patrick already pitched two days ago for the Brewers making him a questionable reliever for Pat Murphy. I am not scared of the rest.
Since the beginning of the season, the cubs rank 4th in wOBA and 3rd in wRC+ at 109. The Cubs have a hitters chance to keep it within 2.
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