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Premiums, 7.25

By
Chris R. Farley
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The WNBA variance Gods caught up to us, annoying, but another + unit day in MLB. Let’s keep that rolling – we NEED to get in the black before football season begins!

Not a great baseball card and not a lot of prominent sports otherwise – light day.

MLB Picks:
 
Marlins/Reds under 9 (-119), to win 1.5 units
The Reds are a more formidable outfit the second half of the season and while we know they prefer to win and score at home, there are just too many injuries on both sides to like an over in this contest. Miami’s Chisholm Jr. (1 HRs, 45 RBI) and Cooper (.279 average, .347 OBP) should both be out today, and the Reds continue to have a host of lineup changes due to ongoing illness/injuries to the core of their offense. Trevor Rogers and Nick Nodolo won’t scare any hitters away, but Nodolo’s 4.38 xERA and Rogers’ potential to whip out an ace-like performance at any given time, despite his down year, are all more reasons to believe that these two lineups will struggle. Like the under quite a bit.
Rockies (+170), to win 1.7 units
I know I know, the Rockies away from home blah blah, the splits blah blah, but here’s what’s also blah blah – the Milwaukee offense. Few pitchers have been more underwhelming than Kyle Freeland in his career with Colorado. Barring his 2018 season, where he was sensational, Freeland has always been a 5.00 ERA guy who struggles with consistency and velocity. But I don’t mind his profile today against the Brewers. Milwaukee depends on big slugs and HRs to stay afloat, and they’re a top 10 offense in those categories. They’re a bottom 3rd offense in batting average and BABIP, however. Freeland has the best HR allowance rate (1.06/9 innings) since 2018 and I think he could find some success today against a Brewers squad that’s probably getting a little overconfident. And it’s not like Aaron Ashby’s numbers are impressive, either. I’ll take a shot on the Rockies to eke out a win and avoid the sweep tonight.
 
Giants (-124), to win 1.5 units
The Giants need a win and this is a great setup for it. Tyler Gilbert has been atrocious in 30 innings and his marks say he’s gotten lucky quite a bit – scary combo. A 6.76 xERA, the lack of strength in his 89 mph four-seam and a HR allowance rate of 2.08/9 innings should open plenty of doors for a SF team that just got humbled against their arch-rival in LA. Jakob Junis has been very steady in 50 innings for the Giants, and his 83% LOB rate should come in handy against a Diamondbacks team that’s ranked at the bottom of the league in batting average and wOBA. Good time to bet on the Giants.
 
Foreign Basketball
 
Chile Segunda Basketball League, 9:00 pm EST tonight
Sportiva Italiana vs. Árabe Valparaiso over 147.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
If you can find this game at your book (it’s at Bovada, don’t see it at BetOnline, but I wonder if US based sportsbooks show it), you’ll see an astronomical line of -48.5 in favor of the away team Sportiva Italiana. The favorite smashed Arabe 93-65 in their last contest, which actually makes me want to chase the dog a little in this one, but the better play is the over. Sportiva is a scoring machine, averaging 88 ppg in 8 straight victories. Sportiva can score at will but that’s especially true against the pedestrian defense of Arabe. All we need the dog to score is 60 total points if Sportiva snags at least 88 points, their average, and this should be an easy over. If you look at the patterns of these two teams, I like these odds enough to bet 1.5 units on it.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!

NFL Preseason Coaching Records For 2022 – Sports Investing

By
Kiev O'Neil
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NFL Preseason Football is a half step away, and there is no better way then to start preparing the season than looking at some data.   Now, it is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, quarterback changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, new coordinators, and maybe the most important factors in motivation.  Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future.

Since the 2019 NFL football season, there have been a lot of coaching changes, and less preseason games due to Covid, so many of the coaches this year do not have many data points.  My philosophy for betting games with coaches that have limited data is to stay away in general with a potential exception in the first week where new coaches in general sometimes want to start their season out on a positive note with a win.   This is not a hard rule, because some coaches do not care, but it is best to try to avoid fading them unless they are playing against one of the bulls that we will discuss.

Getting back to the most important aspect for handicapping the NFL preseason, it is great to have the data on these coaches.  It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do.  I personally have to have at least 8 games played, or 2 seasons of pre-season football to make a determination.   As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have 0 significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be a lot looser with their play calling, and very liberal on which athletes that they will put into play the game.  Coaches that want to win in the preseason will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during OTAs.  They also will in mainly stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason.  Other coaches that do not care much at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs.  These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason, or plays that were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years. 

On a sadder note, we lost two great preseason coaches to bet on last year in Mike Zimmer, who was 20-9 in preseason football as well as Jon Gruden who was 39-19.  May they rest in peace.  Here is some of the outliers below that could make us some money.

Some of the most winning coaches who will be paying my bills:

  • Sean McDermott at 10-5 at 67% – I must break you!
  • John Harbaugh at 40-12 at 77% – I don’t care if I injury my whole team!
  • Frank Reich at 7-4 at 64% – I will out-nerd you!

Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:

  • Mike Vrabel at 4-7 at 36% – Lose now to win later!
  • Dennis Allen at 4-8 at 33% – I came back to coaching just to lose in the preseason!
  • Zac Taylor at 2-5 at 29% – The art of losing!

When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason.  Now I know that we only have three preseason games since last year, and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end.  Due to the change, I had to recompile our data to show the coaching record for week one, the middle weeks, and the final week.  I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021.  Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 13-1 in game one but only 8-5 at the final week.  Maybe be a little more careful with that.  Also, Bill Belichick is 66% at 15-7 on game one, and only 9-12 in the final week.  On the flip side, Sean McDermott s only 2-2 in game one, but 4-1 in game the final week.  If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.

I know what you are thinking.  Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS?   Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition.  The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.

A few things to keep in mind for 2022.  The preseason schedule remains only three games.  Even though it is a big change from week four, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game, and in their last game.  There also isn’t as many fade coaches as we have had in the past being that Andy Reid decided to go 3-0 last year in the preseason moving his average up to 48%, as well as the high number of coaching changes.  I think that looking at the coaching records during the individual weeks might be here on out more important than looking at the coaching records in total.

In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish.  If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 3/9 – AFC South

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

AFC South

2021 Records

Tennessee 12-5/ Indianapolis 9-8/ Houston 4-13/ Jacksonville 3-14

Indianapolis – Carson Wentz Sucks. Matt Ryan should be an upgrade, but he hasn’t exactly been sharp the last few years, but his weapons also have been underwhelming or suspended. Jonathan Taylor should get his behind an offensive line with two pro bowlers, but I also worry about Left Tackle Matt Pryor taking over for a departed Eric Fisher. At receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is the top option, with a bunch of unproven talent behind him. On defense I think they made upgrades across the board with the signings of Stephen Gilmore to be a shut down corner and snagging pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue from Vegas. I think Gus Bradley taking over at DC with his aggressive style should factor well in Indy. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Heavily Juiced over -190

Tennessee – Getting the #1 Seed is special now in the NFL as it gets you the only Bye in the playoffs. Not as special is losing that first game at home after the Bye like the Titans. I also think they were the team that overachieved the most in 2021 winning 12 games with only a +65 Point differential. They were 17th in YPG and 12th YPG Allowed on defense. Not what you think of as a #1 Seed. That being said this is a veteran team, and if they have a healthy Derek Henry for a full season those offensive numbers will go up. Trading AJ Brown takes away the top option at receiver and they are counting on draft pick Treylon Burks to fill that role. They also signed Robert Woods who should be decent as a #2 if healthy. Ryan Tannenhill is probably playing for his future this year so I do expect him to thrive. The Titans resigned Harold Landry who took off in 2021, but didn’t add any key pieces and I would expect a similar year to 2021 on defense. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Under -125

Houston – Houston is a very young team, and their season will depend on whether or not Davis Mills is going to become a quality NFL QB in 2022. If he doesn’t, they’ll be near the top of the board next season where the QB talent will be much greater in the draft than this year. Hint: He Won’t take a next step. This team was dead last on offense and unless they develop some sort of running game to improve on their 83.6 YPG in 2021 they will be in deep trouble again. Hint #2: They Won’t be able to run the ball, but #15 overall draft pick Kenyon Green could be a future pro-bowler at Guard. On defense they took Singletary #3 overall at CB and he could be a shut down type player, but the rest of the roster looks rough. Hint #3: The defense will suck again in 2022, and this team is ready to really start the rebuild with all the extra draft picks from Watson really having an effect next year allowing them to take a QB and another top tier talent in the draft. Vegas Win Projection: 4.5 Juiced Under to -130

Jacksonville – The Urban Meyer saga being complete, will Trevor Lawrence take a step forward in 2022? Doug Pederson should be able to coax the best out of him as he did early for Carson Wentz. Lots of pundits are high on the Jags to really make a leap this year, I am not one of them. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram simply aren’t the answer to improving an offense that only averaged 305+ YPG in 2021. Travis Etienne will hopefully be healthy and we will see what he brings to the table. The O-Line was a concern last year and will be once again in 2022. Even with Lawrence’s mobility he was sacked 32 times. Without improvement up front this offense will still struggle. On defense the team should improve with #1 overall pick Travon Walker, and they went defense on 5 of 7 draft picks. Darious Williams, signed from the Rams will start at corner and is an immediate upgrade there. I think the D keeps Jacksonville in more games than last year, but when your point differential on the season is over 200 to the bad side, it takes a lot of improvement to start picking up more wins. I think they are one more draft away from really having a shot at more wins and contending. Vegas Win Projection: 6 Juiced over at -125

2022 Projections

Indianapolis 11-6

Tennessee 10-7

Houston 4-13

Jacksonville 4-13

AFC South Action:

Indianapolis – Lean Over. The Juice is what is keeping me off this play, that and cross division games vs the AFC West. If this gets to 10 at Plus Money I might make a play.

Tennessee – No Plays. Their variable schedule is brutal with the Packers, Bengals and Bills. Too much variance here.

Houston – Lean Under. I think they are gonna go full tank mode.

Jacksonville – 1 Unit on Jacksonville Under 6 Wins. They get Houston twice, Jets, Lions and NFC East, but also the AFC West. Could they find a way to get to 6? Maybe. But I don’t see 7 wins here so I’ll play the under and I think at worst I push.

 

July 24th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-0-1, +1u Saturday, my MLB record now sits at 110-101-4, +5.09u. I’m rolling with 3 plays to cap off the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays/write-ups, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Astros/Mariners UNDER 7(-105)–3:10 PM CT

*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-105) vs Giants–3:10 PM CT

*MLB(0.75u): Guardians ML(+135) @ White Sox–1:10 PM CT

I’ll be traveling to Mexico in the morning for a (much needed) vacation. I’ll have no plays tomorrow, but I’ll be back on Tuesday with plays and write-ups for you. Let’s finish the weekend strong!

Premiums, 7.24

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi Everyone!

Profitable day in MLB, frustrating ending to a UFC card that we had some fucking great bets in, and a stellar finish to our 4-day-parlay. I know it sounds braggadocios but I’m telling you, when I give out a parlay over a longer period of time, it’s a good idea to take it. Those are the ones we usually do really well with.
In other news, some more thoughts about the survey:
  • I appreciate that you all enjoy my write-ups and feel that the length and style is done well.
  • To the 25% who think the cursing is too much, you do realize you’re receiving emails from a gambler about gambling your own money, right? This stuff ain’t exactly for choir boys and gals. Just saying. But since some of you don’t love it, I’ll tone it down a notch… sometimes. =)
  • I’m going to try my best to filter picks better and provide a smaller card if I have any level of substantial uncertainty.
Onto Sunday! Not many picks, but we like the ones we’re playing:
MLB Picks:
 
Blue Jays (-155), to win 1 unit
Well the Jays are absolutely dominating the Sox and today Boston’s pitching won’t help. I’m a little concerned about regression but I’m more confident that Boston has given up on this season. The Blue Jays are lethal when they have an elite pitcher on the mound and Stripling (3.03 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 74 innings) should be able to contain the home team’s lineup while the Jays’ bats stay hot.
Guardians/White Sox under 7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
If there’s any series that’s due negative regression in runs, it’s today’s final battle between the Guardians and White Sox. Bieber has come into his own, allowing 3 or less runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Dylan Cease is clearly Chicago’s ace and he’s been even better, permitting 1 run or less in his last 7 starts on the mound. Love the under today, two great pitchers who can command and prevent two pedestrian offenses from their streaks.
Yankees/Dodgers ML Parlay: 1 unit to win 1.3 units
I’m going to choose N. Cortes and C. Kershaw over the Baltimore and SF pitchers today 10 times out of 10, especially with the power and momentum of the favorites. NYY dropped yesterday’s contest; makes me like this even more.
WNBA Picks:
 
Dream +8 (-115 at Bovada, best I’ve found), to win 1.5 units
We’ve played on the Atlanta Dream before in these spots and we’ll do it again today. I think Seattle will win today’s game but they’ve been very underwhelming. The Dream still have a shot at making the playoffs, while the Storm are comfortably in 2nd in their conference and it’s very unlikely they won’t earn a bid. Atlanta has won in tougher spots, notably at Las Vegas and Phoenix, and the Storm are riding a routine of only beating up on inferior programs. Seattle’s last 5 wins: Fever, Wings, Sparks, Fever, Fever. ZZzzZzZz. The Dream can keep this close throughout.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday WNBA Power System Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Sunday card has the ESPN Total of the Month and a big 5* Afternoon Blowout along with a CFL Platinum Supreme Total. WNBA Comp play below.

The WNBA Comp Play is on Atlanta plus the 7 points at 6:00 eastern. The Dream have covered 3 straight on the road pulling upsets in 2 of those games. They hammered Seattle by 14 the last time they played them. Seattle has lost 2 straight on the road and we note that home teams off a road favored loss that lost the prior game are 4-21 to the spread vs a team also off a loss. Look for Atlanta to keep this one close. For the WNBA Comp play. Take the points with Atlanta. On Sunday a Powerful MLB Card is up and led by the ESPN MLB Total of the Month, we also have a Canadian Football Platinum Supreme Total and MORE. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and end the week big. For the WNBA Comp play. Go with the Atlanta Dream. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

July 23rd MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-1, -0.87u night, my record on the season sits at 109-101-3, +4.07u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back from a tough best bet loser last night. To receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Pirates F5 ML(+100) vs Marlins–6:05 PM CT

People don’t seem realize how bad the Marlins offense is against lefties. Apparently, the oddsmakers don’t either. Away from home this year, the Marlins rank 28th in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching; this is simply not their role. Pirates SP Jose Quintana is going to be vulnerable in his tougher matchups, but this is not one of them. Quintana has pitched to a 3.02 ERA at PNC Park this year, and a FIP at 3.32 is impressive as well. I like how Quintana matches up with this Jazz Chisholm-less Marlins offense, a unit that has struggled mightily overall over the last few weeks.

Marlins SP Max Meyer has received a lot of hype here recently, and rightfully so; the 2020 1st round pick has great potential. With that said, this is just his 2nd big league start. Considering Meyer threw less than 170 innings in the minor leagues prior to his call up, I am simply not convinced he is ready for this level yet. He gave up 5 ER in his debut against the Phillies, and while this might be an easier matchup, this Pirates offense has improved over the course of the summer.

To price Meyer this highly without any sustained success at the big league level is a reach. I’ll play against that notion early in this game. 

*MLB(1u): Braves -1.5(-105) vs Angels–6:20 PM CT

I have faded the Angels in 3 of their last 4 games, and not one of those called for a sweat. Without Mike Trout, this lineup is among the worst in the league. Don’t take my word for it; since June 1st, the Angels rank 28th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Braves SP Kyle Wright has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA here in 2022; he has limited home-runs while simultaneously producing twice as many ground-balls as fly-balls. I think he mows down the Angels tonight.

Angels SP Patrick Sandoval might hold a 3.00 ERA, but one glance at his 1.43 WHIP is enough to tell you that is not sustainable. In addition to allowing a hit per inning on the year, Sandoval is walking 4.5 per 9 innings away from home. We saw his luck start to run out last weekend against the Dodgers, and I think that carries over into tonight facing another very good lineup. The Braves rank 3rd in the league in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching and are a lineup I’m going to want my money on throughout the rest of the season.

The Braves will have all of their important bullpen arms available tonight by nature of winning by 7 last night. This unit ranks 5th in the league in bullpen WHIP and contains the type of arms I can trust in the later innings. While the Angels bullpen hasn’t been disastrous, they’ve still been far too inconsistent this summer for my liking.

Rob V: Saturday MLB Power System Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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The 2022 MLB Run line Game of the Year from a 21-0 system headlines a powerful MLB Card along with 2 Top Soccer plays one is a Platinum Supreme the Other the total of the Month. We also have a late night WNBA Play. MLB Comp play below.

On Saturday the MLB Comp Play is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern The Mets fit a 13-0 2nd game back from the break system for teams off a home favored loss. The Mets are also 14-0 as a home favorite off a home loss since last September. They have Bassitt going and he will look for revenge here tonight after getting shellacked in SD for 7 runs in 3 innings, He has a 3.12 home Era. He takes on B. Snell who is 0-2 with a 5.87 road Era. The Padres have lost 6 of 9 here, 5 of 6 on Saturdays and 10 of 13 on the road. The Mets have won 4 straight vs a lefty and 5 of 6 on Saturdays. Look for the Mets to get game two. On Saturday the 2022 MLB Run line Game of the Year headlines along with 2 TOP Soccer plays and WNBA. Jump on at goldencontender@aol.com or DM on Facebook or Twitter. For the MLB Comp play. Make it the Mets.  Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

UFC Fight Night Free Picks from FarleyBets – July 23, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi Everyone! It’s rare that I do a free pick article in the UFC, but why not try and be like the UFC GOAT and get some Ws this afternoon in London? The UFC kicks off around noon EST so get these plays in soon if you like them!

Want Chris’ premium picks? Here’s a few reasons why you might:

  • 2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
  • Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
  • 2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
  • Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
  • Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
Aspinall within distance (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Aspinall to score a takedown (-120), to win 1 unit
Wagers on Aspinall makes too much sense. Big Tom has now won 8 straight pro fights and he’s finished SEVEN of those in the 1st round. A takedown, submission, and striking artist, there’s not much left out in Aspinall’s game. He’s a versatile fighter with a 1″ height advantage and he’s in front of a home crowd, poised to make a big leap in his heavyweight history. All Aspinall for me.
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Pimblett by TKO/KO or Submission (-135), to win 2 units
I believe the hype. Pimblett is loud and brash and has a big personality like McGregor, but he can back it up. Firstly, do you know how ballsy and badass it is to be that stoic and confident before a fight? His energy resembles Connor in his heyday and that’s not easy to do. Mental games alone should give Paddy the edge, but the reality is, his repertoire is just more dynamic than Leavitt. He has a reach advantage, height advantage, and experience advantage for a little cherry on top. Paddy keeps his legend going today, within distance.
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McCann/Goldy – Will Fight Go Distance: No (+172), to win 1.72 units
Did you see McCann’s spinning elbow in her last matchup? I know it’s all part of the same dynamic – Paddy and McCann and now (of course) Dave Portnoy is wearing the wig and jumping on the bandwagon (that gets annoying, don’t you think?), but it’s all for good reason. McCann is an excellent fighter with a rock solid chin and aggressive nature. Questionable decision losses taint her overall record, but it feels like 24k Hannah Goldy is being served up on a 24k platter for McCann; Goldy just hasn’t had the opponents or depth of experience to survive in a fight against “Meatball” McCann, and I think it’s very possible McCann ends her night early.
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Chris Curtis (-107), to win 1 unit
Hermansson is a solid fighter but he’s been on a downward trajectory for some time, showing his weakness in two recent losses against Sean Strickland and Martin Vettori. Curtis seems to only be getting better, with really impressive victories against Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira highlighting his ascent. Worth a bet on his momentum alone.
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Premiums, 7.23

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

As one of my more astute subscribers said to me recently – the WNBA giveth and the WNBA taketh away. We’ll land back on our feet but now I see why the woman’s pro league is so damn frustrating. I’m avoiding it today, although a sneaky wager on the Liberty at home against Chicago in a ROUGH traveling spot may not be a bad look.. An “okay” day in MLB and a win in CFL Friday – let’s gain more Ws today.

So far I have 13 responses from the survey and I really appreciate the feedback! Keep it coming. In general, most of you could care less or you love the snarky language, but more importantly most of you think I could scale back on my picks, especially when I’m on a cold streak. Totally agree with that and it’s something my wife has told me multiple times. I’m aggressive by nature and it’s something to be aware of in the wide-world of betting.
Anywho, thank you for your support and onto Saturday! Exciting card! PS – that 4 day parlay is still going strong!

MLB Picks:
 
Blue Jays/Sox under 9.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Well we talked about regression on my recent podcast with Sherwood, who was fantastic (not shocking), and this is a sterling example. Those bats have to be tired after that historic scoring barrage in last night’s game, and Alek Manoah would love to get a revenge victory and blank the Sox at home after his extra-inning loss to Boston back in late June. Regression is coming.
Rockies ML (+225), to win 1.125 units (in other words, put 0.5 units on it)
This is priced wrong. Woodruff is a beast but with how pedestrian the Milwaukee offense has been this year and with how suddenly explosive the Colorado offense CAN be, this is a great spot to play on a vastly inflated line on the home team. It’s obviously likely that the
Brewers win this game, but why not take a shot on Jose Urena, who just keeps getting lucky (his 4.87 xERA tells us as much), and he might only need a little luck today with a lineup that can bring it.
Rockies Giants/Dodgers under 8 (-120), to win 1 unit
I hate that this is juiced so much but the under is the play. Urias should be able to easily keep the Giants in check, while Alex Wood (3.51 xERA, 3.13 xFIP, 0.80 HR/9 innings) has a better arsenal than he gets credit for.
 
UFC Picks (this starts around noon, FYI!)
Paddy the Baddy Parlay: Aspinall, McCann, Pemblett – 1 unit to win 1.84 units
Aspinall (-141), to win 1 unit
Aspinall within distance (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Aspinall to score a takedown (-120), to win 1 unit
Like our parlay above, adding more plays on Aspinall makes too much sense. Big Tom has now won 8 straight pro fights and he’s finished SEVEN of those in the 1st round. A takedown, submission, and striking artist, there’s not much left out in Aspinall’s game. He’s a versatile fighter with a 1″ height advantage and he’s in front of a home crowd, poised to make a big leap in his heavyweight history. All Aspinall for me,.
Pimblett by TKO/KO or Submission (-135), to win 2 units
I believe the hype. Pimblett is loud and brash and has a big personality like McGregor, but he can back it up. Firstly, do you know how ballsy and badass it is to be that stoic and confident before a fight? His energy resembles Connor in his hayday and that’s not easy to do. Mental games alone should give Paddy the edge, but the reality is, his repertoire is just more dynamic than Leavitt. He has a reach advantage, height advantage, and experience advantage to beat. Paddy keeps his legend going today, within distance.
 
McCann/Goldy – Will Fight Go Distance: No (+172), to win 1.72 units
Did you see McCann’s spinning elbow in her last matchup? I know it’s all part of the same dynamic – Paddy and McCann and now (of course) Dave Portnoy is wearing the wig and jumping on the bandwagon (that gets annoying, don’t you think?), but it’s all for good reason. McCann is an excellent fighter with a rock solid chin and aggressive nature. Questionable decision losses taint her overall record. It feels like 24k Hannah Goldy is being served up on a platter for McCann; Goldy just hasn’t had the opponents or depth of experience to survive in a fight against “Meatball” McCann, and I think it’s very possible McCann ends her night early.
 
Chris Curtis (-107), to win 1 unit
Hermansson is a solid fighter but he’s been on a downward trajectory for some time, showing his weakness in two recent losses against Sean Strickland and Martin Vettori. Curtis seems to only be getting better, with really impressive victories against Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira highlighting his ascent. Worth a bet on his momentum alone.
Four-Day-Parlay (still alive and beating!)
BC Lions ML (CFL)
Winnipeg Blue Bombers ML (CFL)
Paddy Pimblett (UFC)
Molly McCann (UFC)
Muhammad Mokaev (UFC)
 3 units to win 7.7 units
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