Sending this first since these matches are starting shortly:
Parlay: Maria/Jabeur over 18.5 + Simona Halep wins
1.5 units to win 2.2 units
Maria is a fighter and although Jabeur is clearly the better player, their friendship and Maria’s fight should lengthen this contest. Realistically it only has to go two sets (6-3, 6-4) for this to go over, so I like our odds.
On the second leg of the parlay, I just expect Halep to continue her dominant run. Her and Jabeur seem destined to clash in the Finals and Rybakina is leveling up big time taking on Simona.
My Free play for Tuesday is on the Phillies/Nationals game in Philly at 6:05 Central.
Josiah Gray was one of the major trade pieces to come over along with Keibert Ruiz from the Dodgers in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer deal and he gets the ball for the Nats tonight. Gray has shown massive improvement over the course of the season. After allowing 19 Home Runs over 10 starts to begin the year he left May with a 5.08 ERA. His four June starts were spectacular including one against these Phillies. He allowed just 2 Home Runs across 24 innings while striking out 28 batters and rocking a 1.13 ERA in those June starts. Last trip out he got rocked by the Marlins on Friday for 6 Earned runs. So which pitcher will show up tonight?
To answer that question I am looking strictly at the Phillies tonight. Even without Bryce Harper in the lineup the Phillies continue rake. Since he went down the Phils are averaging 6.5 Runs per game. The wind will be calm in Philly on Wednesday, maybe even blowing in slightly, however it will be 85 degrees and humid at first pitch. Citizen’s Bank Park has a slight positive metric for Home Runs and I think Gray serves some up tonight as his ground ball rate is only 27.4% while his fly ball rate is at 48.8%. Look for Philly to enact some revenge on Gray.
I am on the Phillies team total over 4.5 Runs -115.
Coming off a 1-1 split, I sit at 92-89-3, +0.78u on the MLB season. With a pretty tough slate to work with, I’m sticking with a lone play for this afternoon and backing a guy that’s treated us well this year. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers -1.5(-120) vs Cubs–1:10 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes Day in Milwaukee! While that may sound monotonous, we are now 6-1 backing Burnes on the season after an easy winner last weekend. Today, I see another huge mismatch on the mound. Burnes comes into tonight sporting a 2.36 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and is allowing just 6 hits per 9 innings while striking out over 11 per 9 innings. He’ll face a Cubs lineup that ranks below league average in wRC+ vs righties away from Wrigley Field. While the Cubbies have recently got a few key bats back off the IL and were able to put up 8 runs in last night’s game, how they fared off of Jason Alexander has zero bearing as to how they’ll fare off Burnes today. Burnes threw 7 innings of 2 run ball against the Cubs in Milwaukee earlier this season, and he’ll be relieved by arguably the best 7th-8th-9th inning trio in baseball(Boxberger, Williams, Hader).
Cubs SP Adrian Sampson is a bit of a journeyman; while the righty is 30 years old, he’s thrown just over 200 innings in the big leagues. During that time, he’s put up an ERA north of 5.00 and a WHIP at 1.39; this is not a guy I’m afraid to go against. This is also a pretty tough matchup considering how well the Brewers have seen righties in their home ballpark this season(109 wRC+). The Cubs’ bullpen has underperformed all season and carries an ugly 1.32 WHIP into this afternoon’s matchup.
I’ve had success trusting Burnes all year, and this is another spot where Milwaukee should win comfortably. I don’t mind laying a bit of a premium considering how successful this angle has been for me. I’d play this up to -130.
The Wednesday MLB Power System play is on Toronto at 3:40 eastern. Oakland fits a negative 1-13 scoring system here today. The are 0-5 of late on Wednesdays and have lost 11 of 14 vs A.L. East teams.. The Jays are 6-0 in game 2 of a series and have won 4 of 5 vs a starter with a 1.30 or worse WHIP. J. Kaprelian goes for Oakland and he is 0-3 art home with a 6.45 Era and he has a 5+ era in days games. Berrios has not been great this year but he should do well here against a light hitting Oakland team. Toronto has won 13 of 18 here. Play on the Blue Jays. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU: 1-13
Aug 07, 2011 recap Sun 2011 home Orioles Alfredo Simon-R Blue Jays Ricky Romero-L 2-7 -5 L 0.5 O 5-13 1-0 0-5 130.0 8.5 9
Apr 30, 2014 recap Wed 2014 home Twins Kyle Gibson-R Dodgers Zack Greinke-R 4-6 -2 L 2.5 O 12-12 1-0 1-5 150.0 7.5 9
May 22, 2016 recap Sun 2016 home Twins Phil Hughes-R Blue Jays Marcus Stroman-R 1-3 -2 L -5.0 U 3-9 1-0 0-3 155.0 9.0 9
Sep 21, 2016 recap Wed 2016 home Padres Luis Perdomo-R Diamondbacks Zack Greinke-R 2-3 -1 L -2.5 U 4-5 0-0 1-1 117.0 7.5 9
Sep 19, 2017 recap Tue 2017 home Reds Jackson Stephens-R Cardinals Jack Flaherty-R 7-8 -1 L 5.5 O 8-8 1-0 4-2 100.0 9.5 10
Mar 30, 2018 recap Fri 2018 home Rays Blake Snell-L Red Sox David Price-L 0-1 -1 L -6.5 U 4-7 0-0 0-1 145.0 7.5 9
Jul 23, 2018 recap Mon 2018 home Royals Heath Fillmyer-R Tigers Francisco Liriano-L 4-5 -1 L -0.5 U 13-10 0-0 3-1 100.0 9.5 9
Aug 11, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Tigers Francisco Liriano-L Twins Kyle Gibson-R 3-4 -1 L -1.5 U 9-9 0-0 1-3 125.0 8.5 9
Oct 08, 2018 recap Mon 2018 home Braves Mike Foltynewicz-R Dodgers Rich Hill-L 2-6 -4 L 0.0 P 6-8 0-1 1-4 135.0 8.0 9
Sep 12, 2019 recap Thu 2019 home Mariners Justin Dunn-R Reds Tyler Mahle-R 5-11 -6 L 7.0 O 11-11 0-0 3-6 105.0 9.0 9
Jul 30, 2020 recap Thu 2020 home Tigers Ivan Nova-R Royals Brady Singer-R 3-5 -2 L -2.0 U 8-13 1-0 0-3 125.0 10.0 9
Aug 10, 2020 recap Mon 2020 home Red Sox Ryan Brasier-R Rays Ryan Yarbrough-L 7-8 -1 L 5.5 O 12-16 1-0 3-3 116.0 9.5 9
Apr 27, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Diamondbacks Zac Gallen-R Dodgers Julio Urias-L 3-1 2 W -4.0 U 2-5 0-2 2-0 160.0 8.0 9
Jul 02, 2022 recap Sat 2022 home Guardians Kirk McCarty-L Yankees Gerrit Cole-R 4-13 -9 L 8.5 O 5-14 1-0 2-9 230.0 8.5 9
Jul 06, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Athletics James Kaprielian-R Blue Jays Jose Berrios-R 160.0 8.0
Chris goes over the concept of propaganda and how it leaks its way into the world of sports betting, how to avoid incorporating it into your handicapping, and examples of where it’s been proliferated in sports media. He also gives a few FREE PICKS!
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Hopefully you all got the early premium email last night at Wimbledon. I like those plays a lot. Onto a full slate of MLB and more today, and fuck the WNBA (ha). Our CFL pick changed, too, now that the line is out.
MLB Picks:
Tigers (+148), to win 1.48 units
The Detroit offense has improved steadily over the past month, becoming a top 10 team in RBIs and a top 5 team in batting average over the past week. Their wOBA is just outside the top 10, too. Pineda had one bad game recently against KC but before that, he managed a 3.26 ERA and commanded strong performances against the Yankees and Orioles. Shane Bieber is coming into his own but there’s something fishy that we still don’t trust. He’s allowing a steady 3 runs per start to whoever he faces, not bad, but his last start against Detroit was one of his better performances all season. I think the Tigers step up and hit aggressively to sweep this series – value on the home dog, again.
Cubs/Brewers first five over 4 (-115), to win 1 unit
Burnes and the Brewers can get BURNED by the Cubs, as evidenced in Corbin’s 2 previous losses against the Cubbies earlier this season, and Chicago almost always plays their NL Central rival feisty and aggressively. Two viable pitchers but the over is juiced for a reason and we agree – I expect some unexpected early points here.
Blue Jays -1.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units and
Jays/A’s over 8 (-110), to win 1 unit
Time for Toronto to get off their ass, don’t you think? And against the 1-5 pedestrian James Kaprielian? Probably a good spot. Bats- we command you to come alive, it should be too easy with this setup.
Orioles win (-105), to win 1 unit and
Rangers/Orioles over 9 (-115), to win 1 unit
For many of the same reasons as yesterday’s wagers, there’s a lot to like about Baltimore’s continued run at home, scoring at will against a bad Texas defense, and an over since neither team seems to have any insight into stopping the other lineup. That being said, we’re betting on the O’s because I trust Spencer Watkins slightly more – Glenn Otto has looked BAD and his forecasted numbers don’t look any better.
Wimbledon:
Tomljanovic/Rybakina over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
These two ladies are very evenly matched and if there’s any pattern we’re seeing, it’s that most of these games towards the end of the tournament are going longer and are getting more competitive. Lots of new blood without Serena and other former champions so it’s bound to happen. Rybakina should win but not confident enough in that- that’s what makes an over even more likely.
Halep -3.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Halep is the best women’s player left and while Anisimova is probably the best looking player left, that doesn’t get you very far at Wimbledon. Probably a quick and commanding win for Halep tomorrow.
Garin/Kyrgios over 37 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Kyrgios is very talented, has an unreal serve, and loves to beat himself on the court. Dude is so overly emotional and impulsive that almost all of his matches, especially against prime competition, should go over. Garin’s had a tough slate of opponents and he just keeps hanging in. I love this so go over.
CFL Picks:
Stampeders/Elks over 50.5 (just a lean now)
Elks +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
As long as Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell at QB and he stays healthy, this is a team that can score points. Last time the Elks nearly beat the Stampeders and had little issue scoring as well. The Elks are in a better position, at home after a loss, to at least keep this close. We’ll put a unit on the Elks and lean over.
Did you all see how we lost that 1st five bet between Seattle/SD? Lol… some of these bad beats are pretty insane.
On top of that, I went 3-0 in Wimbledon and won quite a bit of coin but I’ve hesitated giving you tennis bets because of how shitty that went at first, too. So let’s try this again, since I really like these bets heading into tomorrow morning and I could see some of these lines moving against us.
Wimbledon:
Tomljanovic/Rybakina over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
These two ladies are very evenly matched and if there’s any pattern we’re seeing, it’s that most of these games towards the end of the tournament are going longer and are getting more competitive. Lots of new blood without Serena and other former champions so it’s bound to happen. Rybakina should win but not confident enough in that- that’s what makes an over even more likely.
Halep -3.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Halep is the best women’s player left and while Anisimova is probably the best looking player left, that doesn’t get you very far at Wimbledon. Probably a quick and commanding win for Halep tomorrow.
Garin/Kyrgios over 37 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Kyrgios is very talented, has an unreal serve, and loves to beat himself on the court. Dude is so overly emotional and impulsive that almost all of his matches, especially against prime competition, should go over. Garin’s had a tough slate of opponents and he just keeps hanging in. I love this so go over.
An 0-2 Monday brings me to 91-88-3, +1.03u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cubs/Brewers OVER 8.5(-120)–7:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Jason Alexander holds an incredibly deceiving 3.82 ERA; in 5 starts, the young righty is allowing well over 1 hit per inning while walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings. His WHIP of 1.70 and past struggles in the minor leagues tell me he should not be a major league starter(he wouldn’t be if not for the plethora of injuries to Milwaukee’s staff).
Cubs SP Kyle Hendricks’ soft-throwing nature can throw some teams off, but it doesn’t to appear to have fazed the Brewers this season. In 3 starts vs Milwaukee this season, Hendricks has allowed 10 runs in just under 15 innings pitched. The Brewers have also seen righties good in their home ballpark this year(111 wRC+) and are a team I can trust in this role.
The Cubs bullpen ranks 21st in bullpen WHIP and is not a unit I want to trust when stepping up in competition(if at all). While Milwaukee has the much better bullpen, they will be without their 7th, 8th, and 9th inning arms today after each of those guys threw twice in the past 2 days. I really don’t like the rest of Milwaukee’s pen and don’t expect those guys to adjust to back-end roles very well; facing this same dilemma last week, Milwaukee allowed 8 runs to the lowly Pirates.
I don’t envision much of a threat from either pitching staff and see a higher-scoring game in Milwaukee tonight.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT OVER 4.5(-125) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
The Blue Jays have lost 4 straight games, but this is not a team I expect to remain down-and-out for a long period of time. Toronto was the best offense in the league vs right-handed pitching in the month of June and will draw a very favorable matchup tonight. Athletics SP Adrian Martinez is in the major leagues out of necessity, NOT because he deserves to be. Martinez put up a 5.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in Triple-A last season and followed that up with a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in AAA this year. In his last start in Seattle last week, Martinez yielded 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings, allowing 7 ER. This is an arm Toronto should absolutely crush.
As insurance, the A’s bullpen ranks 28th in bullpen WHIP and is notorious for blowing the rare A’s lead in the later innings. At anything -135 or below, this seems like a cheap price to back one of the league’s best offenses in a good matchup. Playing this at -125 was a no-brainer.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-115) vs Rockies–9:10 PM CT
Dodgers SP Mitch White might be a rookie, but he has carried himself quite well early in his career. He holds a sub-4.00 ERA up to this point and is allowing hard contact at under a 20% rate. This Rockies offense is TERRIBLE vs right-handed pitching away from their home ballpark; their 63 wRC+(100 is league average) has allowed us to net 6.73u by fading them in this very role. White might be young, but he’s more than equipped to hold this Rockies order down tonight.
Rockies SP German Marquez has simply had an atrocious 2022 campaign. After being one of the Rockies’ best arms over the past 5 years, Marquez holds an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 15 starts this season. This is a tough matchup for a multitude of reasons. Not only do the Dodgers rank 2nd in wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark, but this is also the second time they’ll face Marquez in a week’s span, a spot I believe greatly favors the opposing offense. When you factor in Marquez has had a WHIP north of 1.35 on the road over the last 2 seasons, I am not afraid to go against him in this spot.
There is also a major bullpen discrepancy in this matchup. The Dodgers rank 5th in bullpen WHIP this year, while the Rockies 24th in that same category.
Ya know, usually by this time of the year/season my frustrations with baseball are starting to dwindle. Not so much this season. It’s probably an amalgamation of various factors, including just pure variance in the majors that’s beyond anyone’s control. As annoying as it is, we’re sticking to our methods and trusting in positive regression. Let’s start off this week on a HIGH note with some fookin’ wins.
MLB Picks:
Mariners/Padres first five under 4 (-120), to win 1 unit
Logan Gilbert has been THE ace for Seattle and he’s been steady all season. The Padres aren’t good against elite pitchers, and I like what I’ve seen from Clevinger so far. After a big scoring night for Seattle, I expect this to start slower.
Mets first five -1 (+110), to win 1.1 units
Normally I wouldn’t bet Scherzer right away in his first start after a month + off, but if his practice reports are any indication, he’s more than ready to go. Can’t say Nick Lodolo scares me away at all, so this is a perfect opportunity for the Mets to be up early.
Orioles (EVEN), 1.5 units and Rangers/Orioles over 9.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
Baltimore is a streaky team and their offense is humming along right now, snagging their 2nd win in 2 days with a comeback victory against Texas last night, Voth is no ace but Spencer Howard’s shaky career reared its ugly head again in his first 3 games this season. He’s made to be a reliever and he hasn’t been good in that respect, either. Starting against this frisky Baltimore lineup should result in plenty of runs and I like another win for the home-team O’s at Camden Yard.
Dodgers -1.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
I just don’t like anything about this series for Colorado, on the road, as LAD looks to refind their footing after a tough matchup against San Diego. They’re very comfortable at Dodger Stadium and we’re getting a reduced line because it’s German on the mound for Colorado. Marquez got blasted in his last outing against the Dodgers and that was at home. Don’t like this setup for the Rockies.
WNBA Pick:
Fever +11 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Storm just shellacked Indiana in Seattle last Friday, but now the teams switch home positions and in a league where win-margins are usually pretty thin, we’ll take a big home dog to at least keep it under double-digits, if/when they lose.
CFL Picks:
(July 7) Stampeders/Elks anything over 48 or less, 1 unit
Not seeing any lines out for this yet, but as long as Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell at QB and he stays healthy, this is a team that can score points. Last time the Elks nearly beat the Stampeders and had little issue scoring as well. Once we get an official line, we’ll reassess and make our play, perhaps for more units.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is on vacation, so he recorded this Big 10 preview podcast early to release to you amazing loyal listeners, so that you will have something to listen to. No UFC takes this week but there may be an article so please check www.TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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