An 0-2 Monday brings me to 91-88-3, +1.03u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cubs/Brewers OVER 8.5(-120)–7:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Jason Alexander holds an incredibly deceiving 3.82 ERA; in 5 starts, the young righty is allowing well over 1 hit per inning while walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings. His WHIP of 1.70 and past struggles in the minor leagues tell me he should not be a major league starter(he wouldn’t be if not for the plethora of injuries to Milwaukee’s staff).
Cubs SP Kyle Hendricks’ soft-throwing nature can throw some teams off, but it doesn’t to appear to have fazed the Brewers this season. In 3 starts vs Milwaukee this season, Hendricks has allowed 10 runs in just under 15 innings pitched. The Brewers have also seen righties good in their home ballpark this year(111 wRC+) and are a team I can trust in this role.
The Cubs bullpen ranks 21st in bullpen WHIP and is not a unit I want to trust when stepping up in competition(if at all). While Milwaukee has the much better bullpen, they will be without their 7th, 8th, and 9th inning arms today after each of those guys threw twice in the past 2 days. I really don’t like the rest of Milwaukee’s pen and don’t expect those guys to adjust to back-end roles very well; facing this same dilemma last week, Milwaukee allowed 8 runs to the lowly Pirates.
I don’t envision much of a threat from either pitching staff and see a higher-scoring game in Milwaukee tonight.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT OVER 4.5(-125) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
The Blue Jays have lost 4 straight games, but this is not a team I expect to remain down-and-out for a long period of time. Toronto was the best offense in the league vs right-handed pitching in the month of June and will draw a very favorable matchup tonight. Athletics SP Adrian Martinez is in the major leagues out of necessity, NOT because he deserves to be. Martinez put up a 5.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in Triple-A last season and followed that up with a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in AAA this year. In his last start in Seattle last week, Martinez yielded 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings, allowing 7 ER. This is an arm Toronto should absolutely crush.
As insurance, the A’s bullpen ranks 28th in bullpen WHIP and is notorious for blowing the rare A’s lead in the later innings. At anything -135 or below, this seems like a cheap price to back one of the league’s best offenses in a good matchup. Playing this at -125 was a no-brainer.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-115) vs Rockies–9:10 PM CT
Dodgers SP Mitch White might be a rookie, but he has carried himself quite well early in his career. He holds a sub-4.00 ERA up to this point and is allowing hard contact at under a 20% rate. This Rockies offense is TERRIBLE vs right-handed pitching away from their home ballpark; their 63 wRC+(100 is league average) has allowed us to net 6.73u by fading them in this very role. White might be young, but he’s more than equipped to hold this Rockies order down tonight.
Rockies SP German Marquez has simply had an atrocious 2022 campaign. After being one of the Rockies’ best arms over the past 5 years, Marquez holds an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 15 starts this season. This is a tough matchup for a multitude of reasons. Not only do the Dodgers rank 2nd in wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark, but this is also the second time they’ll face Marquez in a week’s span, a spot I believe greatly favors the opposing offense. When you factor in Marquez has had a WHIP north of 1.35 on the road over the last 2 seasons, I am not afraid to go against him in this spot.
There is also a major bullpen discrepancy in this matchup. The Dodgers rank 5th in bullpen WHIP this year, while the Rockies 24th in that same category.
Ya know, usually by this time of the year/season my frustrations with baseball are starting to dwindle. Not so much this season. It’s probably an amalgamation of various factors, including just pure variance in the majors that’s beyond anyone’s control. As annoying as it is, we’re sticking to our methods and trusting in positive regression. Let’s start off this week on a HIGH note with some fookin’ wins.
MLB Picks:
Mariners/Padres first five under 4 (-120), to win 1 unit
Logan Gilbert has been THE ace for Seattle and he’s been steady all season. The Padres aren’t good against elite pitchers, and I like what I’ve seen from Clevinger so far. After a big scoring night for Seattle, I expect this to start slower.
Mets first five -1 (+110), to win 1.1 units
Normally I wouldn’t bet Scherzer right away in his first start after a month + off, but if his practice reports are any indication, he’s more than ready to go. Can’t say Nick Lodolo scares me away at all, so this is a perfect opportunity for the Mets to be up early.
Orioles (EVEN), 1.5 units and Rangers/Orioles over 9.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
Baltimore is a streaky team and their offense is humming along right now, snagging their 2nd win in 2 days with a comeback victory against Texas last night, Voth is no ace but Spencer Howard’s shaky career reared its ugly head again in his first 3 games this season. He’s made to be a reliever and he hasn’t been good in that respect, either. Starting against this frisky Baltimore lineup should result in plenty of runs and I like another win for the home-team O’s at Camden Yard.
Dodgers -1.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
I just don’t like anything about this series for Colorado, on the road, as LAD looks to refind their footing after a tough matchup against San Diego. They’re very comfortable at Dodger Stadium and we’re getting a reduced line because it’s German on the mound for Colorado. Marquez got blasted in his last outing against the Dodgers and that was at home. Don’t like this setup for the Rockies.
WNBA Pick:
Fever +11 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Storm just shellacked Indiana in Seattle last Friday, but now the teams switch home positions and in a league where win-margins are usually pretty thin, we’ll take a big home dog to at least keep it under double-digits, if/when they lose.
CFL Picks:
(July 7) Stampeders/Elks anything over 48 or less, 1 unit
Not seeing any lines out for this yet, but as long as Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell at QB and he stays healthy, this is a team that can score points. Last time the Elks nearly beat the Stampeders and had little issue scoring as well. Once we get an official line, we’ll reassess and make our play, perhaps for more units.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is on vacation, so he recorded this Big 10 preview podcast early to release to you amazing loyal listeners, so that you will have something to listen to. No UFC takes this week but there may be an article so please check www.TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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A 2-1, +1u Sunday capped off a +3.85u week and brings me to 91-86-3, +2.74u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners TT UNDER 3.5(-130) @ Padres–5:40 PM CT
4th of July card up with a Powerful MLB Card headlining along with a Perfect CFL Football system as MLB Sides swept on Sunday. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play is on Toronto at -1.5 runs at 9:05 eastern. Toronto fits a powerful 11 -1 system for road favorites in this range off a home favored loss vs an opponent that scored less than 4 runs like Oakland. The Jays also fit a solid 139-31 system. Toronto has won 13 of 16 vs Oakland, 22 of 30 vs .400 or less and 4 of 5 vs a lefty. Oakland has lost 11 of 12 vs A.L. East teams and the last 5 after allowing 2 or less runs. They have Irvin on the mound and he has allowed 9 runs in his last 2 starts. Manoah for Toronto is 4-1 on the road with a 1.97 Era. Look for the Jays to get the win. On The 4th we have the Canadian Football league Perfect System Play and a powerful MLB card up. Jump on aswe start the week fast. For the MLB Comp play. For thr comp play. Take Toronto on the run line. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Quicker again today, things will be more normal tomorrow. Too bad we didn’t act on those accurate leans we had yesterday. Yankees? Dumb.
MLB Picks:
Rays/Sox over 9.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Astros + Giants, 1 unit to win 1.19 units
Dodgers -1.5 (-140), to win 1.5 units
Wimbledon Picks:
Parlay Cornet/Tomljanovic over 21.5 and Halep to win, 1 unit to win 1.7 units
CFL Picks:
Bombers/Argonauts under 43.5, to win 1 unit
I’m not convinced the Argonauts can score over 10 points against the Winnepeg defense and I’m also not sure that Winnepeg cares about laying the wood on any team. Every contest the Bombers have played in, it’s gone way under.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Happy 4th of July everyone! We are at week 3 of our summer NFL division breakdown. Starting to turn the heat up as we dive into the hard hitting and action packed AFC North.
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During the 2021 NFL season the Baltimore Ravens were one of the most injury riddled teams in the league. Not only was it a cumulative amount of players, but quality as well. Their backfield was decimated before the regular season started with JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards going down. Pro Bowl talent Marcus Peter not seeing the field in 2021, while Ronnie Stanley made his appearance for 1 game. And Oh yeah, starting QB Lamar Jackson out the last 4 games to end their 2021 season at 8-9. That is just to name a few and it still came down to their last regular season game for them to have a shot at the playoffs.
Point is, Ravens are good. Even through all the injuries and adversity this team still competed and did it at a high level. Not too often will you see a team finish dead last in a division and then be the division’s favorite the following season. Reason being, 2021 was an anomaly. 2022 Ravens will be healthy, hungry, and ready to take back their division. In Baltimore fashion Ravens made a point to bolster their Defense bringing in DT Michael Pierce and S Marcus Williams. As always the talk will be regarding Lamar and his arm talent to take this team to the next level. Ravens are a playoff team this year and I have high expectations for this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder in 2022. Getting great value at +140 for a team that in my opinion, really only has to compete against the Bengals for the division. Easier said than done…
Projected Record: 12-5
Cincinnati Bengals +190:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing Back: Eli Apple, B.J. Hill, and Josh Tupou Bringing in: La’el Collins, Hayden Hurst, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras,
It is so easy to root for Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Dude has poise, swagger, and only put his team on his back to take them to the SUPER BOWL in 2021. Simply put he is a pure stud. Bengals won the AFC North last season finishing at 10-7, but “got hot at the right time” with their impressive play off run knocking off the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs to make the ship. We all know the result of that game, but Joe Burrow solidified in 2021 that he is a top QB in this league and the Bengals are certainly in conversations as contenders for years to come.
Since Joe Burrow’s ACL injury that ended his rookie season prematurely in 2020, the talk has always been about the Bengals offensive line play. Are they able to give him the protection he needs to be a sustainable QB in the league or was 2020 an insight for things to come. In 2021 their O Line improved drastically from 2020, but later in the season showed its vulnerability and especially lack of depth. This offseason they made huge strides and focus to bolster their offensive line play. Bringing in 3 veterans in OT La’el Collins, OG Alex Cappa, and C Ted Karras. The Bengals made the right move here, because Joe Burrow being sacked 70 times in 20 games is not the stats you want to see from your franchise QB.
The stage is set for the Bengals and their fan base. They got a taste of winning and the expectations are Super Bowl or bust now. As we know the AFC in general is a gauntlet, but this team has already proven once they are up for the task. As for the AFC North, the only real contender they have to worry about is now a healthy Ravens team.
Projected Record: 10-7
Cleveland Browns +325:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing Back: Anthony Walker Bringing in: Deshaun Watson (trade), Jakeem Grant Sr., Taven Bryan, Josh Dobbs.
Strength of Schedule: Tied 17th hardest per CBSsports
Browns made a massive blockbuster trade bringing in the controversial Deshaun Watson and making him the highest paid QB in the league based on guaranteed money of 230 million dollars. With hearings still happening and a real possibility of suspensions, it is looking extremely bleak for Deshaun Watson to even step on the field this season. Relationships with previous starter Baker Mayfield are completely gone as they look to move the QB out of Cleveland. Thus most likely bringing us to veteran Jacoby Brissett as the Browns 2022 season starter at QB. It is almost laughable how bad all the moves the Browns made to put themselves in this position. Are we surprised? Nope. “Browns gon Browns.”
With all of the outside noise and negative attention Browns have been receiving this offseason. There is absolutely no way you could even consider making a play on them at this point. Hypothetically let’s say Watson is out this entire year putting him on pace to play for 2023. You now have a franchise QB you guaranteed 230 million to that hasn’t played in 2 years. I think the Browns may have just sealed their fate to be awful for a long long time.
Projected Record: 5-12
Pittsburgh Steelers +800:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing back: Terrell Edmunds, Montravious Adams, Chukwuma Okorafor, and Ahkello Witherspoon Bringing in: Mitchell Trubisky, Myles Jack, James Daniels, Gunner Olszewski, Levi Wallace, and Mason Cole
2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 20 – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh, Round 2: No. 52 – George Pickens, WR, Georgia, Round 3: No. 84 – DeMarvin Leal, DE, Texas A&M, Round 4: No. 138 – Calvin AustinIII, WR, Memphis, Round 6: No. 208 – Connor Heyward, FB, Michigan State,Round 7: No. 225 – Mark Robinson, LB, Ole Miss, Round 7: No. 241 – Chris Oladokun, QB, South Dakota State
Strength of Schedule: Tied 12th hardest per CBSsports
Steelers used their first round pick in the hopes of finding their future star at QB to replace veteran Big Ben, by taking Pitt stand out Kenny Pickett 20th overall. All the talk has been regarding his hand size and at what point he will be taking the starting position over. I say let’s pump the brakes and not over look what I believe to be an under the radar pickup in Mitchell Trubisky.
CMP% YDS TDS INTS Rating
64.1
10,652
64
38
87.0
Career Record: 29-21
67.8
14,539
104
36
104.5
Career Record: 28-21
Here we have the career stats of a QB everyone wants to write off as a bust and one that currently has the highest guaranteed money contract in the league, and won’t play. Yes, circling back and comparing Trubisky and Watson side by side. There are a ton of other factors that play into Wins and Losses, defensive play, garbage time stats, etc. The point is I am not sold that Trubisky is an absolute bust, it wasn’t too long ago he was a ‘double donk’ Fg away from moving on to the second round of the playoffs with the Bears. Much like the Texans not exactly executing in the head coaching realm, Matt Nagy wasn’t exactly stellar for the Bears either. After being behind Josh Allen and under now Giants head coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo I love the aspect that Trubisky actually may have a lot of upside especially coming into a winning organization like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s not forget Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 15 year tenure in Pittsburgh. They may not be my pick to win the division, but they are going to be a team I am looking to hammer this year ATS.
Projected Record: 9-8
Conclusion: Ravens +140
It is going to be a battle solely between the Bengals and the Ravens for the AFC North division. No surprise there as it’s pretty clear I think the Browns will be a disaster and Pittsburgh is rebuilding. I give the nod to the ravens having a much easier strength of schedule compared to the Bengals who will have their hands full more times than not. With both top teams getting + value there is always the option to play both sides, as I am confident Browns and Steelers will not be an option in 2022.
The ESPN Sunday night Perfect System Game of the Year headlines the Sunday card. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB comp Play is on Minnesota at 2:10 eastern. The Twins fit s last home game of a series system that is 113-37 for teams off a 1 run win in game 116 or less if the total is less and the opponent has a wine percentage of or higher. The Twins also fit a long term July or later system that is 1196-561. Smeltzer has been solid for the Twins at 4-1 with a 2.86 era and he has a 1.50 home era and 1.99 in day games. Wells for the Birds has a 4.80 era in day games. Balty is 18-52 on the road vs a winning team and has lost 20 of 26 here. The Twins have won 4 of 5 at home vs a righty and 8 of 10 on Sundays. For the MLB Comp play go with the Twins. The ESPN Sunday night play of the year from an undefeated system direct from the database headlines the powerful card we have up today. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the comp play. Make it Minnesota. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
I’m on a 4-0, +4.1u run and sit at 89-85-3, +1.74u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays to close out the week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 -0.5(+120) vs Rays–12:37 PM CT
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(-110) vs Cardinals–6:08 PM CT
*MLB(0.67u): Mets -1.5(+150) vs Rangers–12:40 PM CT
Write-ups will return on Tuesday. Enjoy your Independence Day Weekend; God Bless America!
Well a disappointing result in UFC but overall a nice day. Ain’t unhappy about our roll in CFL right now. All MLB today, but I do think that Mertens and Sinner, both big dogs in Wimbledon, are worth a small play today. Both are playing at a very confident and very high level right now and are more likely to win than the probabilities suggest. Onto the plays and keep on keeping on and enjoying your weekend!
MLB Picks:
Marlins/Nats over 8.5 (-125), to win 1 unit
Pablo Lopez has been getting exposed frequently and the Nats can really slug at home when they’re in a good spot. Sunday in the Nation’s Capital before 4th of July – something tells me the bats will be crackin’.
Jays (-130) to win 1 unit
The Jays will win this game if the scoring keeps on going this high, and today’s pitchers give me no reason to believe that either squad will be severely limited. Nice revenge spot for Toronto, too.
Braves/Yankees ML, 1 unit to win 1.59 units
Morton and the Braves alllllll day over Castillo and the Reds. I still expect Luis to regress, sorry not sorry, and the Yankees are just too offensively talented to lose to Cleveland. Good spot for Tristan McKenzie to show his weaknesses.
Don’t like a lot of later games, but I lean under inSD/LAD and Philly by margin.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
