NFL 2022 Season Pythagorean Win Totals from 2021 Data

By

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July 23, 2022

Posted April 29, 2022, reposted July 23rd 2022
As discussed from last year’s article, football is a game of inches, and by being off just one, could be the difference between a win and a loss in a league with limited games. The shape of the football itself creates it’s own sort of randomness on circumstances such as situation like field position during punts and how the ball spins during field goals. There is also a certain amount of randomness of “when” the points are scored that pertains to a team’s final win record. Let’s face it, there is a good amount of luck that happens within the football season the best teams do not always win against the worst teams. We can just go back to January 9th of this year to find an easy example of that for when the Jaguars beat the Colts.

Many of us NFL football analysts and sports bettors want to have good methods for prediction for next year’s football season in order to be more accurate. Wins and losses do not tell the whole story and they are also rarely a good indicator by itself for a team’s future success. If we find some scientific methods that will correlate well using a team’s past performances to their success in the future, it will help us become not only more knowledgeable, but it could also help us become more profitable. The method that we will be discussing today is the 2021 Pythagorean win total calculation as a method to help predict the 2022 football season results.

Is it possible for an NFL team to score more points than they give up and have a losing record? How about score less points than they allow and have a winning record? The answer to that is that it is very possible, and it happens every year. In 2019 the Houston Texas scored 378 total points, yet gave up 399 to win 10 games. In that same year, the Chargers scored 337 points while only giving up 345 (almost 50/50) and only won only 5 games.

Sometimes teams score many of their points during blowouts, and as luck will have it, those same teams might lose their close games. Due to these discrepancies, we need to formulate the data to find out what some of these teams were expected to do based on points scored compared to their actual win/loss results. Using a function that takes a look at the total points scored as a data point with the total points allowed is, at many times, a better indicator of a team’s future success compared to their actual record. This is why we can use a Pythagorean win total compilation to compare what was expected to happen based on points scored for all of the NFL teams, to what actually did happen in how these teams finished out their year. This way we can have a better idea on what to expect for next season. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Since then, the Pythagorean wins theorem has continued to be statistically significant.

The Pythagorean theorem is a^2+b^2=c^2. It basically figures out the distance between two points of a right triangle (c), or for what we are interested in, the expected value between the relationship of sides. Please see the figure. Think of points scored as (a), and points allowed as (b) where (c) is a function of the (a and b) linear equation and we just want to know what the relationship is between a^2/c^2 (c^2 is a^2 + b^2) to get a percentage of wins multiplied by the total games. Going by the diagram, if it is a tall and thin triangle, the team scored a lot more points compared to what they have given up, and if it is a short and long triangle, the team has given up many more points compared to what they actually have scored.

I know what you are thinking. Why can’t we just use the points scored over total points as a basis for predicting the expected outcomes? The answer to that simply is that the data would be wrong. For example, if a team scores 75% of the total points and only allowed 25% of the total points throughout the year, would we only expect that team to win just 75% of their games? Heck no. That is like averaging 30 points per game on offense and only allowing 10 points per game on defense. Even the 16-0 2007 patriots who scored 68.3% of the points averaging 36.8 on offense and giving up 17.1 on defense won many more than 12 games. The 2007 Patriots’ Pythagorean win total certainly didn’t equate to winning every game, but was at 13.76, which is much higher than the 12 and a much more relatable number to their fantastic season.

But wait, there is more! This Pythagorean equation does have it’s faults if adjustments are not made to it. This equation tends to bunch all of the teams more towards the middle when actual outcomes may deviate further away from the mean. Statistician Daryl Morey found this in football among other sports and was able to develop a more statically significant exponent of 2.37 (rather than 2) as a constant for better accuracy while utilizing this equation. Without getting too far into the weeds, we must make adjustments correlated to the actual variances that happened over the years pertaining to each sport, and for this column, football itself. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders takes this concept even farther by stating that each team’s exponent should be different as a function of their points scored. According to Schatz, the formula for each team’s exponent that works best in the NFL is 1.5 * log ((PF+PA)/G). I myself find that using the constant exponent of 2.37 doesn’t deviate significantly enough from Morey’s exponent model with respect to the actual randomness in the sport of football itself. Much of this randomness comes from inconsistent officiating, injuries, and pure luck itself.

One thing that I found that we can somewhat account for is turnovers. Every year there are teams that have something called turnover luck. Weather if the luck is good or bad, turnovers affect the scores and the results of each game. For example, some teams could have had a 3 point field goal and instead they fumble the ball away while some defenses are put on the back of their heels when teams turn the ball over in their side of the field. The Cowboys and Colts had the best turnover ratio of +14 while the Jaguars had the worst at -20. Big shocker right? Now it is well known that turnovers are worth close to about 4 points to each team respectively and the old school way of thinking is that turnovers are mostly random, but I tend to disagree with that notion. If you look at the recent histories of each team, turnovers happen to be somewhat predictable. For example, before Tom Brady became a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Jameis Winston used to turnover the ball quite often and it would show up significantly negative year over year in Tampa Bay’s turnover margin. Jacksonville is another team that you have been able to pencil in the negatives for a while now. On the flip side of the coin, there are teams that take care of the ball more often on a consistence basis while them ore other teams might have great ball-hocking defenses that tend to force more turnovers than the others. The Green Bay Packers fit that bill and the Kansas City Chiefs have been on the high positive side for turnovers for at least the last six or seven years for the most part. Due to this, I have adjusted turnovers to be about half of what they are worth to the number from 4 to 2 points per turnover and I award or punish each team only 1 point on offense and 1 point on defense (rather than 2 and 2) with respect to their 2021 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers give you a better idea of what each team’s expected wins should have been based on a cleaner season. In essence, a negative turnover ratio helps those sloppier teams with better expected wins as they punish the cleaner teams that had a high positive turnover margin with lower expected wins due to the luck factor that I have applied. Even though some teams tend to take care of the ball more doesn’t mean that there isn’t some luck to the outliers and visa versa. Please see our chart below for our actual wins vs our Pythagorean expected win totals.

Going by this diagram we can make informed judgements and educated decisions on the actual strength of these teams with respect to not only how well they can score against their opponents but also how well that they can defend. As you can see from the difference column between the actual results from the first 17 game schedule ever in the NFL with the Pythagorean (or expected) results that we can actually see how teams have either over-achieved, or under-achieved in the 2021 season. Here are the five outliers on each side:

Over-achievers:

1. Green Bay Packers: The Packers had only 9.79 expected wins compared to their 13 actual wins last year. A -3.21 difference. The Packers had good turnover luck and played in a very weak division. Their toughest games ended up being at home. Keep in mind that the Packers had two big outliers in their data. Those two data points were when they benched their players on game 17 vs the Lions, and that awful first game of the season when they were blown out by the Saints. Also, remember that garbage time, and the fact that Aaron Rogers is a clutch player probably makes some argument for higher expected wins. I personally think that around 11 expected wins is more fair for this team than 9.79.
2. Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders only had 7.34 expected wins compared to their 10 actual wins last year. A -2.66 difference. Now this number would be even bigger if the Raiders didn’t get respect for -9 turnovers. The Raiders won a lot of games that they shouldn’t have and I think it was all Derek Carr and coach Rich Bisaccia. Just amazing what they did with all of the trials and tribulations from last year, but that doesn’t make up for the fact that this really was a below .500 team.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers had expected wins of 6.91 compared to their 9.5 adjusted actual wins last year. A -2.59 difference. The Steelers also won a lot of games that they shouldn’t have, and they got to capitalize on very injured Ravens, and Browns teams. Keep in mind that the Steeler’s 2021 schedule ended up being easier than people thought coming into the preseason.
4. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had expected wins of 5.16 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A -1.84 difference. The Falcons were actually +4 in turnovers believe it or not, and they had some good wins vs the Saints and Dolphins. This team had a medium schedule and I was somewhat surprised they won 7 games while only going 1-3 against the NFC East.
5. Tennessee Titans: The Titans had expected wins of 10.33 compared to their 12 actual wins last year. A -1.67 difference. The Titans did hit an injury bug but it was at the right time after they somehow beat a ton of great teams the first half of the schedule and then eased into the easy part afterwards. They caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and capitalized. losing to the Jets and the Texans was somewhat telling to me that they were not the best team in the playoffs deserving of that top seed. Now I do think they were a good team, just not great.

Under-achievers:

1. 1. New England Patriots: The Pats had expected wins of 12.12 compared to their 10 actual wins last year. A +2.12 difference. The Patriots blew out a lot of the bad teams and just couldn’t beat the very good teams minus the wind bowl in Buffalo.
  2. Buffalo Bills: The Bills had expected wins of 12.92 compared to their 11 actual wins last year. A +1.92 difference. Five of the Bills six losses were by seven points or less. That Jacksonville one was a pure stinker as well.
  3. Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks had expected wins of 8.9 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A +1.90 difference. Russel Wilson was injured and Geno Smith proved that he isn’t even a backup QB in the NFL. This team had a lot of injuries but really stepped it up at the end and also blew out some bad teams. Keep in mind that the data has been compromised with Russell Wilson leaving the team.
  4. Denver Broncos: The Broncos had expected wins of 8.84 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A +1.84 difference. Philadelphia had lots of injury woes last year. They went 3-5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and the tie game with Cincinnati also hurt their total wins.
  5. Detroit Lions: The Lions had expected wins of 5.24 compared to 3.5 adjusted actual wins with the tie. A +1.74 difference. Detroit wasn’t quite as bad as they looked, and they played some teams very tough behind their hard nosed coach in Dan Campbell.

In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved. Remember to take this information for what it’s worth. When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.

Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success of NFL teams going into their 2022 seasons and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results. The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis for next season and beyond. Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev. Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.

Ref 1: Football Outsiders: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-13-dvoa-ratings

Ref 2: Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation#:~:text=The%20formula%20is%20used%20with,referred%20to%20as%20Pythagorean%20wins.

Saratoga & Monmouth Weekend Preview & Picks – July 23rd, 2022

By

Patrick Gates

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July 22, 2022

We have some great racing this weekend at both Saratoga and Monmouth. Saratoga has two graded stakes including the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks and G3 Caress Stakes. Monmouth several graded stakes on Saturday however, in this article I’ll breakdown the G1 United Nations Stakes and G1 Haskell Stakes.

Race Information:

Name: Coaching Club American Oaks
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 5
Post Time: 3:16 PM
Length: 1 1/8 Miles (9 Furlongs)
Purse: $500,000
Division: Fillies | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

Field:

PP	Horse	A/S	Weight	ML Odds
1	Butterbean	3/F	121	8-1
2	Society	3/F	121	8-1
3	Nest	3/F	121	1-1
4	Nostalgic	3/F	121	10-1
5	Secret Oath	3/F	121	6-5

Horse Preview:

(1) Butterbean won the G3 Iowa Oaks in her last out coming from off the pace to win by three lengths. This was the first graded stakes that she took entered. She’ll take a step up in class and in distance here. Given the field, I don’t see her competing, but she can find the money.

(2) Society, sire of Gun Runner, is undefeated in her three starts. In her last race, she lengthened out from her first two starts. She went off as the favorite and went wire-to-wire winning by a half a length. Given the speed in the field, I don’t see her winning this race.

(3) Nest, last raced in the G1 Belmont Stakes where she was runner-up to Mo Donegal. Prior to that race, she finished behind fellow entrant Secret Oath in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. In every dirt race she’s entered (7), she’s finished inside the money in every time.

(4) Nostalgic, is coming off a 10^th place finish in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. She had a slow start out of the gate and was never able to recover. Prior to that race, she won the G3 Gazelle Stakes winning by over a length. She’s raced against Nest twice before and has never been able to compete.

(5) Secret Oath finished 4^th in the G1 Preakness Stakes in her last out. Before that race, she won the G1 Kentucky Oaks defeating fellow entrant Nest.

Picks:

WIN: (5) SECRET OATH

Secret Oath took down Nest in the G1 Kentucky Oaks the last time these two faced off. This distance seems to suit her slightly better than Nest. Secret Oaths also had a bullet workout in her last training session. While it will undoubtedly be a battle down the stretch, I like Secret Oath to prevail.

TRIFECTA: 5/ 3/ ALL

Race Information:

Name: Caress Stakes
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade III
Race: 10
Post Time: 6:13 PM
Length: 5 1/2 Furlongs
Purse: $200,000
Division: Fillies and Mares | Four Years Old and Uowards
Surface: Mellon Turf
Wagers: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

Field:

PP	Horse	A/S	Weight	ML Odds
1	Caravel	5/M	124	5-2
2	Miss J McKay	5/M	122	6-1
3	Star Devine	4/F	122	9-2
4	Bout Time	4/F	122	3-1
5	Tobys Heart	4/F	124	8-1
6	Robin Sparkles	5/M	122	15-1
7	Lady Edith	4/F	122	12-1
8	Souper Sensational	4/F	122	8-1
9	Kept Waiting	5/M	120	30-1
10	Fouette	4/F	118	30-1

Horse Preview:

Caravel, won the G3 Intercontinental Stakes in her last out defeating fellow entrant Star Devine. In that race prior, she faltered down the stretch to run 6^th in the G2 Turf Sport. Caravel has raced in two G1 stakes before running 12^th and 3^rd.

Miss J McKay, finished 8^th in the G3 Intercontinental Stakes in her start failing to kick down the stretch.

Star Devine, was the runner up to Caravel in the G3 Intercontinental Stakes. She’s recently switched to short sprints and has had success. In the two races she’s entered in at this distance, she finished 1^st and 2^nd.

Bout Time, won in her last start which was at this distance. That was the first stakes race that she was entered in. She’ll again step up in class here but given her running style, I’m not sure she can hang at the front.

Picks:

WIN: (1) CARAVEL

EXACTA BOX: 1, 3, 8

Race Information:

Name: United Nations Stakes
Track: Monmouth Park (Oceanport, NJ, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 11
Post Time: 5:09 PM
Length: 1 3/8 Miles
Purse: $600,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upwards
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

Field:

PP	Horse	A/S	Weight	ML Odds
1	Adhamo (IRE)	4/C	118	3-1
2	Carpenters Call	4/C	118	20-1
3	Temple	6/G	124	6-1
4	Tribhuvan (FR)	6/G	124	5-2
5	He’spuregold	4/G	122	20-1
6	Mohs	4/C	118	20-1
7	Glynn Country	5/H	118	10-1
8	Kentucky Ghost	5/G	122	12-1
9	Epic Bromance	6/G	118	12-1
10	Gufo	5/H	124	3-1

Picks:

WIN: (1) ADHAMO

EXACTA BOX: 1, 3, 4

Race Information:

Name: Haskell Stakes
Track: Monmouth Park (Oceanport, NJ, USA)
Event: Grade I
Race: 12
Post Time: 5:45 PM
Length: 1 1/8 Miles
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)

Field:

PP	Horse	A/S	Weight	ML Odds
1	Cyberknife	3/C	122	6-1
2	Taiba	3/C	122	7-5
3	One Time Willard	3/G	119	30-1
4	Howling Time	3/C	119	10-1
5	King of Hollywood	3/C	119	30-1
6	White Abarrio	3/C	122	5-1
7	Jack Christopher	3/C	119	3-2
8	Benevengo	3/C	119	20-1

Picks:

WIN: (2) TAIBA

The Haskell is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Taiba and Jack Christopher. Taiba lost in the Kentucky Derby in his last start but won the G1 Santa Anita Derby prior. Jack Christopher is undefeated in his four starts. He lengthens out in distance here adding an eighth of a mile to his previous longest. we look at Jack Christopher’s past performances he’s dominated the sprints more than the longer distances. I believe Taiba recovers from her last race and wins the Haskell.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

MLB Plays July 22, 2022

By

Dan Everett

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July 22, 2022

Coming off a bit of a layoff for the MLB All Star break, we’re ready to get things up and rolling again! Don’t forget to subscribe to my premium plays here on TheOddsBreakers as well. Enough of that, let’s get to the meat and potatoes of tonight’s slate.

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

The Padres are going to send Yu Darvish to the mound in this first road game post break. In 48 innings of work he’s managed a 5.25 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, .310 wOBA, and .306 BABIP. He’s also giving up home runs on 11.5% of fly balls. He’s also given up 3 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts.

The Mets are turning the ball over to Max Scherzer. He’s been nothing short of spectacular all year. He currently holds a 2.45 home ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, .249 wOBA, and .228 BABIP. Scherzer has given up 2 runs or less in his last 5 starts. He missed all of June, but that didn’t seem to hold him back at all in July.

The Mets hitters are also fairing much better against Darvish than the Padres are against Scherzer. I like this spot for the Mets, and the pitching matchup a lot. Making it a multi-unit play.

Take the Mets F5 -.5 -125 2U

Los Angeles Angels @ Atlanta Braves

Shohei Ohtani leads the Angels into Atlanta. He’s been great all year on his own right. He’s given up 1 or fewer runs in his last 6 starts. The last time he’s given up more than that you have to go all the way back to June 2 when he gave up 4 runs to Boston. His 2.79 road ERA, 2.65 FIP, 2.88 xFIP, and .273 wOBA are all fantastic. His BABIP is a little suspect at .304, but I think that says more about his defense than his pitching.

Charlie Morton on the other hand has had a very up and down year. He’s been brilliant at times, but also has struggled at others. A 4.31 home ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, .305 wOBA, and .257 BABIP all point to room for positive regression.

Even without Mike Trout, I like the Angels to keep it close here. The Braves haven’t seen much of Ohtani, but the person that has, Matt Olson, has only hit .077 in 13 at bats. The Angels haven’t exactly seen much of Morton either, but they are batting better.

I can’t trust Morton against any lineup at this point. There’s a good chance he has a good game here against a mediocre lineup, but there’s also a chance he bombs it. On the other hand, Ohtani has been great all year against many lineups. I trust him more to have a good game here.

Take the Angels F5 +0.5 -145 1U

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 2/9 – AFC North

By

Shawn Knoche

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July 22, 2022

We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

NFC North

2021 Records

Cincinnati 10-7/Pittsburgh 9-7-1/ Cleveland 8-9/ Baltimore 8-9

Baltimore – The Ravens struggled to find consistency in 2021 while dealing with a multitude of key injuries across the team. Check out this metric for comparison https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostNFL/status/1481423174768242688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1481423174768242688%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Febonybird.com%2F2022%2F01%2F13%2Fravens-injury-woes-2021-stats%2F Only the Giants lost more player games to injury and theirs weren’t as significant. They still managed to come in 6th in yards per game, a lot of this due to Lamar Jackson’s legs. He still isn’t a fully functional NFL pocket passer finishing 22nd in completion percentage, and 23rd in passer rating. Getting back JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards should take some pressure off Jackson. If Ronnie Stanley comes back healthy at left tackle is should also give Jackson more time in the pocket. The receiving core is the big question mark on offense with Mark Andrews the only trusted target with Hollywood Brown gone to the Cardinals. On defense Patrick Queen is the anchor at linebacker and he really started to play well down the stretch in 2021. I really like the addition of Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton into the back-end of the defense. He is a ball hawk and should help shore up a unit that gave up an NFL worst 16 plays of 40+ yards last year. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -155

Cincinnati – Everything really came together for the Bengals as they reached the Super Bowl and came up just short of a truly improbably championship. Joe Burrow proved that he is the real deal, and the Burrow to Chase combo is the most proficient in the league early in his young career. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd don’t suck either. Pro-Bowl RB Joe Mixon will get his in the running game again. The only glaring weakness on the offensive side of the ball was the O-Line as Burrow was sacked 51 times in the regular season and 19 more times in the playoffs. They went out and signed 3 proven linemen in free agency and invested in protecting Burrow. The Logan Wilson anchored defense was efficient if not flashy finishing in the middle of the pack in YPG allowed and points allowed. They invested in the secondary through the draft and should be primed to finish in the top half of the league in 2022. Vegas Win Projection: 10 Juiced Under -135

Pittsburgh – The end of the Big Ben era in Pittsburgh brings questions and competition to the Steel City. Since 2004 they never finished worse than 8-8, won three AFC titles and 2 Super Bowls. But they also have only won 3 playoff games since 2011. Kenny Pickett was drafted as the heir apparent, but I think this is Mitchell Trubisky’s job to lose in the 3 man competition with Mason Rudolph. Najee Harris became a star in his rookie season and should benefit from the O-Line getting a year under their belt as they were the least experienced in game action heading into 2021. Chase Claypool and Diante Johnson are both above average targets for whoever wins the QB job. Pittsburgh finished in the bottom third in effiency ratings on offense in 2021 so should be able to improve on that. The defense is anchored by defensive player of the year T.J. Watt and they have some work to do to improve in 2022. They were dead last against the run last year which isn’t good in the AFC North, and they haven’t changed much in the front seven. The secondary is also suspect, with Joe Haden gone and Minkah Fitzpatrick losing a step seemingly every year. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Under -120

Cleveland – I don’t know what to do with Cleveland. The suspension news I am hearing as of publish date for this article is 2-8 games with a lean toward 8. Who knows with the NFL. Brady got 4 games for deflating footballs, and Calvin Ridley gets a full season for betting. 30 Women assulted is only 8 games I guess? I think there will be a huge public outcry if it’s less than a season. Watson said he will fight that in court, but then his suspension could drag into 2023. His contract is $230 Million guaranteed, but is structured so only $1 Million of it is his salary in 2022 vs $46 million in the other years. I think he will accept whatever is handed down and roll into 2023 where his big money is at. That being said my projections are based off Watson not being in uniform. Should that change I will adjust my Browns and opponents projections. The big add besides Watson was Amari Cooper who will boost the offense. Nick Chubb is still a beast running the ball, as the Browns were 4th in the NFL in rushing in 2021. The defense is solid and were 5th in yards allowed in 2021. Myles Garrett anchors the front seven and Denzel Ward is on of the best in the secondary. The Browns are clearly in win now mode and we will see what Watson’s saga brings once concluded. Jacoby Brissett will run the show to start the year. Watson getting 8 games would add roughly 2 wins and only 2 games would add 3-4 wins in my eyes. Vegas Win Projection: Off The Board

2022 Projections

Baltimore 12-5

Cincinnati 10-7

Pittsburgh 8-9

Cleveland 6-11

AFC North Action:

Baltimore – 1.5 Units on Baltimore over 9.5 -155 Season Win Total. I’m laying the juice here. 4th place schedule includes Jacksonville, Denver and the New York Giants. If this team stays healthy they should get to 10 wins. 1 Unit on Baltimore to win Division +165. I may add some units if Watson suspension is short as Plus money should increase on Baltimore.

Cincinnati – No Plays

Pittsburgh – No Plays

Cleveland – Keep an eye here, if suspension is short I think their win total will be inflated.

July 22nd MLB Plays

By

Michael Fordham

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July 22, 2022

I started off the second half with a 1-0, +1u day. Overall, my MLB record now sits at 108-100-3, +4.94u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays to kick off the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1.5u): Brewers -1.5(-125) vs Rockies–7:10 PM CT

This is a mismatch in every sense of the word. This run-line should be priced at no less than -140. Getting 15 cents of (perceived) value and understanding how these teams match up, I feel comfortable making this a multi-unit play.

Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball by my estimation. The righty has backed up his 2021 NL Cy Young season by delivering a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP here in 2022. Burnes is allowing less than 6 hits per 9 innings while simultaneously striking out over 11 per 9 innings. Tonight, he gets one of the easiest matchups a righty could ask for. The Rockies are the prime example of why you have to focus on home/road splits. This is a really good offense at home, but on the road(specifically against RHP), they are among the worst offenses in the league. They hold a lowly 67 wRC+(29th in MLB) vs righties on the road this year and ranked 29th last year in this role.

Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is the antithesis of Corbin Burnes. Senzatela is allowing an alarming 14 hits per 9 innings this season and holds a 1.80 WHIP in 60 innings. While Senzatela has actually managed to pitch pretty well at Coors Field, he has struggled mightily on the road. He holds a 1.83 WHIP on the road this season and held a 1.52 WHIP away from home last season(much bigger sample size). The Brewers’ offense leaves much to be desired when they step up in competition, but they have absolutely pummeled mediocre righties this season. Overall, this offense holds a solid 109 wRC+ vs righties at home this year. They should absolutely feast in this matchup.

If that wasn’t enough, consider the massive edge the Brewers hold in the later innings. Brad Boxberger/Devin Williams/Josh Hader very well might be the best 7-8-9 inning combo in all of baseball, and with the break behind them, all of these guys will be fresh tonight. On the other hand, Colorado holds the 4th worst bullpen WHIP in all of baseball.

*MLB(1u): Angels/Braves F5 UNDER 3.5(-105)–6:20 PM CT

Braves SP Charlie Morton got off to a slow start, but he has started to mirror his 1.04 WHIP season from a year ago here recently. Prior to the All Star Break, Morton enjoyed a 5-start stretch where allowed just 6 runs in 33.2 IP. I expect him to keep that rolling tonight against a Mike Trout-less Angels lineup. Since June 1st, the Angels rank just 28th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Overall this season, the Angels rank just 25th in wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark. This is a pretty favorable matchup for Morton, especially considering tonight’s projected lineup is just 5-for-25 in total vs Morton.

Angels SP Shohei Ohtani has been nothing short of brilliant on the mound here in 2022. In total, the righty holds a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP entering tonight’s start. While a few blowup starts inflate his road numbers over the past 2 years, he is just as good away from home as he is in Angel Stadium. While the Braves have been good in this role, I do think their offense is more vulnerable in their tougher matchups than people realize. Ohtani has a very similar repertoire to Corbin Burnes and Yu Darvish, each of whom shut down the Braves in their first meetings this season. The Braves’ projected starting lineup is just 1-for-19 lifetime off of Ohtani, and I do think he holds down their lineup tonight.

I couldn’t talk anybody off of the full game Under, but the Angels’ bullpen inconsistency is enough for me to isolate the F5.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets and Betting Expert- Sherwood

By

Chris R. Farley

-

July 22, 2022

Excellent, excellent, EXCELLENT podcast with Sherwood from sportswagers.ca – I’ve been following Sherwood for 10+ years and I’ve learned so much from his betting process and perspectives. Check out this pod and sharpen your sports betting strategy!

Want Chris’ premium picks? Here’s a few reasons why you might:

2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency

Premiums, 7.22

By

Chris R. Farley

-

July 22, 2022

What’s up good peeps! Wildly busy start to my day and it keeps coming, so if you want any explanation or reasoning behind any of these picks, please ask via email or DM. I’ll provide more verbiage for the UFC plays tomorrow, too.Obviously yesterday was a disappointing day overall, feels like we had quite a few bad beats (Liberty, SF Giants, shit — bet SF +900 in the 7th, too. Brutal). Today will be better:

MLB Picks:

Phillies (-133), to win 1 unit

Yankees/Orioles over 9 (+105), to win 1.05 units

Mets -1,5 (+125), to win 1.25 units

Angels/Braves over 7 (-115), to win 1 unit

WNBA Picks:

Sky/Storm ML Parlay: 1 unit to win 0.87 units

Storm -6 (-110), to win 1 unit

The Storm are 6-3 on the road since June and this is a nice response-spot against an inferior team after their loss to Chicago.

CFL Picks:

Winnipeg -7 (-115), to win 1.5 units

This line came out at -4.5 and it completely befuddled me. I should have taken advantage of that immediately but I hesitated and wondered if there’s something I didn’t understand yet about the CFL market. I’m sure there’s still plenty to learn, but not in this case. Predictably, the Blue Bombers almost immediately rose to -7 and that’s where it currently sits. I’m sorry we didn’t get the best line but to be honest, this should NOT be close. The CFL’s best unit against the CFL’s worst unit, who’s showing fewer and fewer signs that they’re interested in playing competitive football. Not overthinking it anymore – Winnipeg slaughters Edmonton. PS – Winnipeg is also 3-0 on the road this season.

UFC Picks:

Paddy the Baddy Parlay: Aspinall, McCann, Pemblett – 1 unit to win 1.84 units

Aspinall (-141), to win 1 unit

Pemblett by TKO/KO or Submission (-135), to win 1 unit

McCann/Goldy – Will Fight Go Distance: No (+172), to win 1.72 units

Chris Curtis (-107), to win 1 unit

Four-Day-Parlay:

BC Lions ML (CFL)

Winnipeg Blue Bombers ML (CFL)

Paddy Pimblett (UFC)

Molly McCann (UFC)

Muhammad Mokaev (UFC)

3 units to win 7.7 units

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 1/9 – AFC East

By

Shawn Knoche

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July 21, 2022

We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.

My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.

Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

AFC East

2021 Records

Buffalo 11-6/ New England 10-7/ Miami 9-8/ New York Jets 4-13

Buffalo – The Bills won their second straight AFC East crown in 2021, but couldn’t pull out the most thrilling NFL game I have ever seen in the divisional round against KC. They win the coin flip they win that game, and honestly I think would have completed my Super Bowl prediction of Rams vs Bills. They come into this year as Super Bowl favorites, with 9 starters returning on offense I don’t see the scoring slowing down any in Buffalo especially with the addition of Jamison Crowder. Biggest question mark for me on offense is Ken Dorsey taking over at OC for Brian Daboll. On defense all anyone seems to remember is the collapse against KC, but this unit was #1 in the NFL in yards per game allowed and the gap between them and the #2 Defense is as big as the span between the #2 Defense and the #15 Defense. In other words they were dominant. They add Von Miller who while getting older, still can bring it to a front six in flux. The Bills use a 4-2-5 and move things around all over the field creating match-up issues and Miller will only add more to the problems for opposing Offensive Lines. In the secondary if Tre’Davious White can return to form following an ACL injury on Thanksgiving this will likely again be the top pass defense. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced Over -150

New England – Mac Jones “Emerged” as a viable NFL quarterback in 2021 and will have a new OC with Josh McDaniels leaving for another head coaching gig. The Pats surprised to the tune of 10-7 last year and were able to sneak into the playoffs where they got throttled 47-17 by Buffalo. They just aren’t in the same class as the Bills. Devante Parker joins the Patriots which will give the Pats their first true #1 WR since….I dunno maybe Randy Moss? I look for Hunter Henry and Jones to continue to develop together. The NE defense is what got them to 10 wins as they were #4 overall in YPG. The Big boys up front and the secondary will look very familiar, but the linebacking core is going to take a huge hit with losses of Dona Hightower and Jamie Collins. I see the D taking a step back so it will be up to Mac Jones and company to continue to grow if they are to repeat 10 wins in 2022. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Under -130

Miami – The Dolphins were my biggest miss in 2021 as I liked them to show up and give Buffalo a run for the division. The team I was looking for showed up i the second half, but it was too little too late after a 1-7 start. Brian Flores is now gone replaced by Mike McDaniel who will attempt to get the Dolphins a winning season for the third straight year. I like this hire as getting five years in Kyle Shanahan’s system should help improve an offense that was 23rd in ypg in 2021. Tyreek Hill is a big splash acquisition and could help open up some room for Tua to find guys underneath like Waddle. For me personally it all comes down to Tua taking that next step everyone is waiting for. The fact that the Fins were pursuing Deshaun Watson tells me all I need to know about if the organization thinks that will happen. On defense resigning Ogbah was huge as it gives them a great edge rushing combo with Jaelan Phillips. Xavien Howard is regarded as one of the top man to man cover guys in the game and allows the Dolphins to blitz often. They will do so again in 2022 and if they play like they did in the second half last year this team will make some noise. Side Note – For a third place schedule Miami got it rough this year drawing the 49ers and Chargers as 2 of the 3 variable opponents. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Under -125

New York Jets – Well the Jets are still the bottom feeders in this division. I read a few articles so far this year that think they will be a playoff contender. I’d like to get some of the stuff they’re smoking. This Tiktok from last year really sums up my feelings on the Jets for this year as well. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2021/9/22/22687727/kid-roasts-jets-tiktok-video The O-Line looks to be slightly improved, but still not great. The receiving core adds Garrett Wilson hoping he can become a top option for Wilson. Corey Davis certainly isn’t it. Oh, speaking of Wilson, it sounds like he spent much of the summer off the grid with Stifler’s Mom. We will see what Year 2 brings for him, but I don’t think this unit gets much better than last year. On defense they were 31st in PFF rankings, so should improve from the cellar. Maybe to lets say 27th. CJ Mosley is solid, but the rest of the front seven is still questionable. They drafted Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner so that should help the corners, but they let Marcus Maye go in Free Agency, so I call that a wash at best in the back-end. Some people think they had the best draft of any team this year, but that doesn’t mean it translates to the field. Vegas Win Projection: 6 Juiced Over -145

2022 Projections

Buffalo 12-5

New England 9-8

Miami 8-9

New York Jets 4-13

AFC East Action:

Buffalo – I’m making small play on the Bills to win division at -240. I don’t see the others catching them this year, and even if Allen gets hurt they signed a solid NFL veteran in Case Keenum.

New England – No Plays

Miami – No Plays – Lean Under on Season Win Total. I may play this small and hedge as their first 4 games are tough with New England, Baltimore, Buffalo and Cincinnati.

New York Jets – 2 Unit play on Under 6 +115 Season Win Total. Let’s say they go 2-1 in their variable games in Denver, Seattle and Jacksonville, and they go 1-3 vs the NFC North (Beat one of Chicago or Detroit) and 1-3 vs AFC North. (Beat Cleveland or Pittsburgh) They would have to go 3-3 in division to lose this play. Not happening, 2-4 is best case scenario in division I think. I could also see them dropping another variable game losing to Jax or Sea and it wouldn’t shock me if they go 0-4 vs AFC North. This line started was at 5.5 and has been bet up, but I’m taking the plus money and going the other way.

July 21st MLB Play

By

Michael Fordham

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July 21, 2022

After a 4 day break, it’s good to be back with some baseball! Through the first half of the season, my record sits at 107-100-3, +3.94u. We’ve got a short slate to work with today, but I do feel comfortable locking in one play before things pick up tomorrow. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group.

*MLB(1u): Tigers F5 -0.5(-105) @ Athletics–2:37 PM CT

Tigers SP Tarik Skubal held an ERA as low as a 2.15 entering the month of June, but as he’s drawn some tougher matchups, we’ve seen him regress. With that being said, he dominated over the first 2 months of the season in his easier matchups, including against these same A’s; on May 10th, Skubal threw 7 shutout innings in Oakland. While Skubal’s ERA now sits at 4.11, a FIP at 3.02 indicates he’s pitched better than his recent cold spell would indicate. Against lefties at home this year, the A’s hold an atrocious 69 wRC+, far and away the worst in the league. I like Skubal’s trend of producing ground-balls and limiting HR’s at a career-best rate; I think he mows down the “Triple A’s”.

Athletics SP Zach Logue has not only struggled at the big league level this year, but he also holds a lowly 5.17 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in his 11 Triple-A starts. While this might surprise you, the Tigers have actually been an above average offense vs left-handed pitching away from their home ballpark this year(105 wRC+). Logue holds an ugly 0.45 GB/FB rate, which is probably why the soft lefty is allowing over 2 HR/9 at the big league level. This is a clear pitching mismatch.

The Tigers hold a significant bullpen advantage, so I couldn’t talk anybody off of the -1.5(+125). With that said, when I’m backing an offense like the Tigers, I want to isolate the matchup I feel best about. I’ll stick with the F5 -0.5 as my lone play for today.

Premiums, 7.21

By

Chris R. Farley

-

July 21, 2022

What’s up all! WNBA continues to heat up, we’re now 7-4 for +3.6 units. We won’t have the same success as the NBA, but it’s nice to see we can use some comparative methods.

Onto Thursday, and MLB is back!…. insert sarcastic “yay!” Onto the picks:

MLB Picks:

DET/OAK Games 1 and 2 under, to win 1 unit each

The first game is listed at 7 and juiced at -120, the second is at 7.5 and juiced at -110. Both contests features, well, the Athletics, who aren;’t exactly a scoring machine, and the pitchers listed should be able to easily contain these two pedestrian lineups.

Giants (+130), to win 1.3 units

Remember when the Giants caught fire and went on a tear last season after the All-Star break? Then they shocked everyone and ended up winning the NL West with 107 wins. That ain’t gonna happen this year, but I like the same narrative to start tonight. SF still has a ton of great pitching and arguably their best is on the mound tonight. Against LAD, who might be “at home” a little too long and more likely to get caught sleeping, I like the Giants to take game 1 of this series.

WNBA Picks:

Liberty +8 (-110), to win 1.5 units

The Liberty have owned this series against the Mystics, and that’s true this year, too. Two of the lowest scoring teams in the association, combined with Sabrina and the Liberty’s confidence against DC, I’ll take the Liberty as dogs on the road.

CFL Picks, Week 7:

Ottawa Redblacks ML +125, to win 1.25 units (7.21)

Let’s take a shot on Ottawa. Both of these teams suck, but Montreal already got a win this season and Ottawa has not. Ottawa is at home, Montreal is winless on the road, and Ottawa is a better offensive team than the Alhouettes in most categories – they just need to take better advantage of opportunities. This is probably a game circled on the Redblacks calendar because it’s an actual, winnable opportunity and I think they finally get a W.

Hamilton/BC over 51.5 (-110), to win 1 unit

BC Lions TT over 29.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units (7.21)

A slight uptick in this total already but we think it could climb even more. BC owns the CFL’s best offense, averaging nearly 40 ppg, and there’s little evidence to believe that Hamilton can prevent the home team from continuing their dominance. Both teams are very skilled in their respective passing games and this should push the total up even more.

Winnipeg -7 (-115), to win 1.5 units (7.22)

This line came out at -4.5 and it completely befuddled me. I should have taken advantage of that immediately but I hesitated and wondered if there’s something I didn’t understand yet about the CFL market. I’m sure there’s still plenty to learn, but not in this case. Predictably, the Blue Bombers almost immediately rose to -7 and that’s where it currently sits. I’m sorry we didn’t get the best line but to be honest, this should NOT be close. The CFL’s best unit against the CFL’s worst unit, who’s showing fewer and fewer signs that they’re interested in playing competitive football. Not overthinking it anymore – Winnipeg slaughters Edmonton. PS – Winnipeg is also 3-0 on the road this season.

Four-Day-Parlay: 3 units to win 7.7 units

BC Lions ML (CFL)

Winnipeg Blue Bombers ML (CFL)

Paddy Pimblett (UFC)

Molly McCann (UFC)

Muhammad Mokaev (UFC)

All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!