What’s up good people! Nice easy win in foreign basketball. Baseball predictably slapped us right in the face Monday after a few good days of + units. What else is new.
I know I got plenty of feedback to filter my plays more on a regular basis, but this won’t be the day I follow through with that. From my perspective, this is a rare day in MLB where I see a ton of value across the board, so I’ll have more plays than usual.
For those who wonder how to navigate a card like below, if that’s a concern of yours, that tells me you’re not betting the right way. Here’s what I mean:
- A 1 unit play should be 1% of your bankroll, ergo,
- If you don’t have enough units to bet every single play I put in today’s email, you’re betting (way) too much of your bankroll on a daily basis
- Sports betting is, despite what many commercial entities and twitter trolls will tell you, a LONG TERM game. Do not overly invest on any given day. Whether a capper’s record is sterling or shitty over 1 week or even 1 month doesn’t really matter- what do they do for you LONG TERM? We win, a lot, as you know.
- 3-5 unit plays are assigned, they’re just very rare and for good reason; why would I ask you to risk that much of your bankroll, 3-5%, on one play, unless I’m extremely confident? I wouldn’t.
That being said, if you don’t like betting my baseball picks, and who could blame you based on how rocky of a road it’s been, then don’t! No one’s ever forcing your hand, and if anything, you’re welcome to play opposite every pick I have since, at this point, that would have ended up in more profit. Either way, it’s still information!
One last note – we switched our over play on Ottawa/Toronto to 47 since I realize 45 or 45.5 was extremely hard to find. Okay – onto the picks:
MLB Pick (115-122-3, -17.18 units):
Rays/Orioles under 7.5 (-115), to win 1.15 units
Unfortunately this just moved to 7.5, it was 8, but I still like it. S. Watkins is on a tear of 1 run allowances or less and although he can get caught and exposed here and there, like he did the last time he faced Tampa, I expect a more crisp result today. Vengeance tends to cultivate better performance. McClanahan is simply a beast, enough said.
Cardinals (+180), to win 1.8 units
Whoa – there are a lot of reasons why this is lined wrong. Young Andre Pallante faces a huge challenge on the road against a rested Toronto outfit, sure, but he seems like a great fit for this matchup. High velocity rate, low HR allowance (0.90/9 innings), and a ton of confidence for a rookie. Jose Berrios is notably better at home (3.33 ERA, compared to a 7.15 ERA on the road) but I expect regression. Berrios’ waning LOB rate and HR allowance is also concerning. Lastly, the Cardinals are a good team… not sure if you’ve heard… and they’re no slouches on offense. They’re ranked top 5 to top 10 in almost every category, yet this is lined like Toronto has a clear advantage across the board. Na, going with the dog.
Mets (-105), to win 1.5 units
This game means more to the Mets, the perennial underdog throughout history, and T. Walker has been absolutely electric. Two weird games against San Diego and Philly have inflated his numbers, yet he still owns a 2.55 ERA (and only allows a stunning 0.39 HRs/9 innings, the perfect stat against big-sluggin’ NYY) across 91 innings. At home, off rest, after a game where their offense finally exploded against the Padres – all NYM for this guy!
White Sox/Rockies over 11.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Michael Kopech experience has promise (3.87 xERA, 77% LOB rate), but it’s been quite the rollercoaster. He’s also never started at Coors Field against an over-confident Rockies lineup. German Marquez’s numbers are markedly worse at home. I love both pitchers to trip over themselves throughout this contest and I love the over at Mile-High.
Astros -1.5 (+114), and Giants -1.5 (-105), both single plays to win 1 unit
Inflated? Yes. Two exceedingly better pitchers and better teams after a loss? Also yes. Gotta take both, wouldn’t make a bad parlay either.
WNBA Picks (7-7, -0.8 units):
Aces (+115), to win 1.15 units
Total over 170 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Sky 1H -1 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both these teams can score at will and both have separate talents to expose the other’s defense, namely: the Sky in 2-point FGs and the Aces in 3-point FGs. The Sky should come out HOT at home in a prime time game as the defending champs, but ultimately I think this game means more to an Aces team that’s out to prove they can hang with last year’s title winner. LV is a better 3 point shooting team and with the plethora of nerves we expect, that could make the difference. Hedging a little by picking Chicago early, but I like the Aces to ultimately win; creating the all-too-predictable playoff response from Chicago in the weeks to come.
CFL Picks (8-5, +3.95 units):
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
