Turns out I do have a few thoughts for today and I ain’t taking off. Sundays are for resting, eating, and watching sports. LET’S GO!
MLB Picks:
Yankees first five -1 (+115), to win 1.15 units
Yea I’m just not sure Chris Sale is ready. Recent reports of his frustration in practice have been well documented and when it’s your first game back after a long break against THIS Yankee team, yeaaaa I can’t favor the underdog, especially not in the first half of the game. Gerrit Cole has been very solid lately, except in his last start against the Sox, where he allowed 5 runs in six innings. Love the Yankees early.
Nats under…. anything 3.5 or more, to win 1 unit
Spencer Strider is continually proving that he has an elite repertoire. The Nats are crumbling and willing to give up their best hitters (Soto), apparently, so the spirit in DC can’t be too high and I think the scoring will be even lower for the home team today. After we hit an over, this is a good time for regression, too.
A Sunday Send It Parlay
Yankees/Orioles/Mariners/Giants, 1 unit to win 9.23 units
WNBA Picks:
Aces/Sun under 174.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This should be a very competitive battle between two teams at the top of their respective conferences. The last two games went way over this total, but the line implies both teams are way overdue to show some better defense, especially as the regular season nears a close. I’ll take the under.
Mystics 1H -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Well here I go betting more than one unit on a new sport for me but I really like this angle. Minnesota has been in really tough scenarios now, on the road, and it’s their 4th game in 5 days. Washington had 3 days off after an unfortunate loss and they’re a very formidable offense. I think they easily take the first half – more energy.
Lean, Fever +14
This just feels like a big line for such a low-scoring sport, especially since most teams probably play down to Indiana a little in these situations. They know they should never lose to the Fever. Just a lean because sharper WNBA minds think this line is right, but my instinct tells me it’s still way too many points.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
We started the weekend off with a perfect 3-0, +3u night. My MLB record for the year moves up to 105-98-3, +3.94u. I’m rolling with 4 plays here on Saturday looking to keep things rolling. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-120) vs Reds–1:15 PM CT
The Cardinals didn’t get off to the best start in the month of July, but this lineup has scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Today, they’ll settle into a role they’ve excelled in all year.
Facing left-handed pitching at Busch Stadium this year, the Cardinals rank 5th in baseball with a 133 wRC+. Since June 1st, that number jumps all the way up to 154. They’ll get a favorable matchup facing off against Reds SP Nick Lodolo, an arm that has made just 5 starts at the big league level. In addition to that, Lodolo threw just 82 innings at the Minor League level before being called up. Sure, he was a first round pick a few years ago, but this is clearly not an arm that’s developed enough to be pitching at this level. Don’t take my word for it, just look at his 1.60 WHIP. In any case, this is a tough matchup for Lodolo, and I certainly give the edge to the Cardinals offense.
As insurance, this full game TT allows us to take advantage of the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati’s pen ranks 29th in the league in bullpen WHIP and has been an easy unit to go against all year.
*MLB(1u): Mariners F5 TT OVER 2.5(+105) @ Rangers–3:05 PM CT
The Mariners have won 12 straight games and are currently the hottest team in baseball. Even with that as a side note(which it shouldn’t be), today presents an extremely favorable matchup.
Rangers SP Spencer Howard was a promising prospect, but he has faltered consistently at the big league level. Approaching 100 innings in the big leagues, Howard holds an ugly 7.13 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He’s allowed 2 HR/9 innings in his big league career, and in his last start against the A’s, he recorded just 1 strikeout in 5 IP. The Mariners have seen righties well this year, ranking 7th in wRC+ in that role. And, like I said, this is the hottest team in baseball right now.
Why exactly are we getting this at plus-money?
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(+105) vs Brewers–6:15 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Cobb might hold a 4.57 ERA, but his FIP at 3.14 is much more indicative of the type of pitcher he can be at Oracle Park. Pitching at Angel Stadium last year, Cobb held a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Considering his GB/FB rate sits at 3.66 here in 2022, I would expect his numbers in San Francisco to mirror that before this season is said and done. I like how Cobb’s ground-ball style plays against a hit-or-miss Brewers lineup. The Brewers face quite a few mediocre righties in their division(Pirates and Cubs, specifically) that prop up their overall numbers; I’m not expecting them to adjust to this matchup well.
Brewers SP Eric Lauer has pitched well at home this year, but he has not had the same luck on the road. This year, Lauer holds a 5.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP away from American Family Field and is allowing 2.3 HR/9 in this role. Considering he held a 1.7 HR/9 on the road last year, it’s clear this is not Lauer’s role. He’ll have to face off against a Giants lineup that ranks 1st in wRC+ vs lefties at home this season. The Giants also scored 6 runs in the 9th off of lefty Josh Hader last night; I like that momentum to carry over into today.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-120) @ Angels–9:07 PM CT
We backed Clayton Kershaw in this matchup last night, and all he did was take a perfect game into the 8th inning. While Julio Urias might not be at Clayton Kershaw’s status, he’ll still enjoy the same luxuries Kershaw did last night. After last night, the Angels officially rank dead last in wRC+ vs lefties since June 1st. Mike Trout is still likely to be out again, so what’s going to change tonight in another tough matchup? Urias holds a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year and has seen no real dip in performance on the road throughout his career.
The Dodgers also took care of business at the plate last night, totaling 12 hits and 9 runs in the blowout win. They’ll face another lefty tonight in Jose Suarez, who is perhaps even more vulnerable than Patrick Sandoval was last night. With a WHIP at 1.52, I have zero trust in Suarez going against this Dodgers lineup.
By nature of winning in a blowout, the Dodgers saved all of their important bullpen arms last night. With that unit fresh, I’m willing to make this a full game run-line play.
The Saturday card is loaded with the MLB Pre Break Game of the Year with a 25-1 System, and 2 Perfect Canadian Football league systems a a side and a total. We also have UFC Main event , MLS Platinum Supreme Soccer and more. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play is on San Francisco at 7:15 eastern. We are playing against the Brewers here as they are in a road dog system that is 3-17 for road dogs off a road favored loss while scoring 5 or more vs a team off a home dog win scoring 8 or more in Non Division game where the total is 8 or less. The Brewers have dropped 5 of 7 on Saturdays of late. The Giants are 6-0 art home vs a lefty and they will see Lauer and his 5.24 road Era tonight. Lauer has allowed 5+ hits in 7 of his last 8 starts. Cobb for the Giants has allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Look for the Giants to win. On Saturday we have our MLB 25-1 Pre Break Game of the Year, 4-1 last 5 years and 2 Undefeated CFL Plays along with Soccer and UFC Main even headlining. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we have a big day/night card up now. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Giants. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
The AFC East – Was so close to making the super bowl last year, yet just couldn’t finish the job on defense. This will be one of the better divisions in football looking at the way that the Patriots made the playoffs with their new stud quarterback Mack Jones, and the way the Dolphins rebounded. The Jets are still the Jets until proven otherwise, but they have to make a step forward at some point with all of the talent that they have been drafting over the past few years. The AFC East plays the AFC North and the NFC North which should be considered medium. Let’s see where these teams line up.
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -140
2021 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 12.92
Schedule: Medium – at large @ LA Rams, vs Tennessee and @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Brian Daboll, DT Harrison Phillips, CB Levi Wallace, DE Mario Addison, G John Feliciano, QB Mitch Trubisky, WR Cole Beasley, DT Star Lotulelei, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Key additions: QB Case Keenum, TE OJ Howard, Edge Von Miller, DT DaQuan Jones, DT Tim Settle, G Roger Saffold, DE Jordan Phillips, WR Jamison Crowder, G David Quessenberry,
Key Draft Picks: CB Kaiir Elam, RB James Cook, LB Terrel Bernard, WR Khalil Shakir and a bunch of dudes
Summary: The Bills are the super bowl favorite this year after such a close game with the Chiefs and an overtime thriller. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier took the brunt of the blame for playing too much prevent in that game vs the Chiefs allowing that field goal for overtime. He might be a head coach somewhere had that not happened. Instead, Brian Daboll left the team to become a head coach while his protégé Ken Dorsey got promoted. I am slightly pessimistic here, but this offense should be able to pick up where it left off. I noticed that Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders isn’t signed, and that is also a red flag to me being how these two receivers are in big game situations. Coach Doug McDermott is at least still there, but I have to think that their road won’t be all that easy this year. 12 wins is a lot to get to and you can only afford to lose five games. Splitting with Miami and New England is quite possible while losing @ LA Rams and @ Kansas City, and that wouldn’t set them up for much success in that over. I have a strong lean under but will hunt for a 12.
My Number: 10.46
Action – Lean Under
Power Rating: 7
2. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total:8.5 juiced to the over -115
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 12.12
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Indianapolis, @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: CB JC Jackson, C Ted Karras, ILB Kyle Van Noy, ILB Dona Hightower, Edge Jamie Collins
Key additions: WR DeVante Parker, WR Ty Montgomery, S Jabrill Peppers, CB Terrance Mitchell
Key Draft Picks: G Cole Strange, WR Tyquan Thornton, CB Marcus Jones and a bunch of prayers
Summary: The Patriots surprised many last year getting 10 nice wins having all of those question marks. More importantly, quarterback Mack Jones has turned out to be a franchise player. In saying that, the Patriots really didn’t do much in the offseason to replace a lot of guys that they are losing. I was almost certain that the Patriots would select a linebacker to replace one of the three studs that look to be leaving this year, but instead they decided to get strange, and draft a guy that wasn’t projected to be picked in the top 100. I am livid over this move, and I think that the Patriots will take a big hit on defense this year. I do like what they got in Wide Receiver DeVante Parker on the cheap, and if he can stay healthy, he can be great. The offensive line should also be ok this year along with the playmaking tight ends that they paid for last year in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. I have the Patriots at a solid 9 wins so no play for me.
My Number: 9.06 wins
Summary: No Play
New England Patriots Power Rating: 3
3. Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total:9 juiced to the under -125
Pythagorean Wins: 7.6
2021 Wins: 9
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Houston, @ San Francisco, @ LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Brian Flores, QB Jacoby Brissett, T Jesse Davis,
Key additions: Coach Mike McDaniel, WR Tyreek Hill, LT Terron Armstead, WR Cedrick Wilson, C Conner Williams, RB Chase Edmonds, CB Keion Green, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Melvin Ingram, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Sony Michel
Whom they drafted: LB Channing Tindall, and that’s about it
Summary: Looking at what this team did in free agency and the offseason, they are certainly going for it! The Fish didn’t even care about their draft picks this year. Word on the street is that Tua looks fantastic, but how much can we trust a bunch of pumped up beat writers as well as the media who loves big name wide receivers? This Dolphins team started out horrible last year, and then finally figured out how to run a defense after their week 8 buffalo loss and turned a 1-7 start into a 9-8 season. The comeback was absolutely unreal, but missing the playoffs wasn’t quite good enough for them to keep coach Brian Flores and we all know what happened after that. Anyways, I do like the hire in Mike McDaniel, but only because I am such a Kyle Shanahan kind of guy. This doesn’t mean that he is Kyle Shanahan, so I have to be careful in my assessments. One thing that I can say is that they had a very easy schedule last year and that will change for 2022. For a 3rd place schedule, I really think that Miami got the shaft this year. Tow of their three at large opponents are beasts in the 49ers and the Chargers. That’s tough for a 3rd place schedule. Miami’s first three at large games are bunched up one after another starting week 12, and their NFC North opponents have the Vikings and Packers at home with the Bears and Lions on the road. I also have to notice that they over-achieved last year having a Pythagorean number of 7.6 wins. I am going to reward the Dolphins for such a nice offseason, but I have to factor in the schedule and the fact that they were pretty healthy last year.
My Number: 9.77
Summary: No lean
Miami Dolphins Power rating: .5
4. New York Jets –
Vegas win total:5.5 juiced to the over -165
Pythagorean Wins: 4.6
2021 Wins: 4
Schedule: Medium Hard – @ Denver, vs Jacksonville, @ Seattle
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: DT Foley Fatukasi, FS Marcus Maye, RT Morgan Moses, WR Jamison Crowder
Key additions: G Laken Tomlinson, S DJ Reed, TE CJ Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, S Jordan Whitehead, OLB Jake Martin, DE Solomon Thomas, K Greg Zuerlein
Whom they drafted: CB Ahmad Sauce Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, Edge Jermaine Johnson II, RB Breece Hall, TE Jeremy Ruckert
Summary: According to many analysts, the Jets had the best draft in the NFL this year. They also had a decent free agency, but that doesn’t mean they can change the culture of this organization just yet. I think that the book is still out on Zach Wilson who ranked 31st in QB EPA plus Completion Percentage over expectation. Zach seems small for the NFL and I predict another injury. The schedule shows to be a bit hard being in this division and all, but I have to think that there might be some light at the end of the tunnel. I think that is is weird that they have to play the whole AFC North the 1st four games of their schedule. if they can win just one of those games, It could be a good sign for the rest of the season. I honestly have no clue what to think of them year two with Mike LeFleur as their OC and I will probably not bet on or against them until I know more.
Super quick today – out of town and out of time! We’ll be taking a much needed day off tomorrow so you won’t get an email Sunday morning. Onto our Saturday card!
MLB:
Twins (-125), to win 1 unit
Braves/Nats over 8.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Mariners -1.5 (+120), to win 1.2 units
Mets Game 2 first five -1, to win 1.5 units
CFL:
Saskatchewan vs. Toronto (+2.5), Saturday
Toronto Argonauts +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has moved down in Toronto’s favor and I agree with the movement. Toronto can look like a formidable team at home– that’s where they won one game and kept it very close against the league-best Winnipeg, losing to the Blue Bombers by only 1 point. But that doesn’t mean that should be the norm. Or does it? At first glance the Toronto offense appears very pedestrian. Check the stats and they’re a bottom tier team in most categories. Look deeper and you’ll see that in other stats that matter, like yards per play, they can keep games close when they’re in a favorable spot. Saskatchewan is a good outfit but this is a sleepy contest for them and they’re not as good on the road. I’ll take a desperate Argonauts squad to keep this within distance or win.
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 87F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. It should be perfect racing conditions.
TV Schedule:
FS2 – “Saratoga Live”: 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Wgt
ML Odds
1
Technical Analysis (IRE)
4/F
120
3-1
2
Creative Fair (IRE)
4/F
120
8-1
3
Bleecker Street (KY)
4/F
122
6-5
4
Rougir (FR)
4/F
122
3-1
5
Dalika (GER)
6/M
118
15-1
6
In Italian (GB)
4/F
118
6-1
Horse Preview:
Technical Analysis
Owner: Klaravich Stables Inc.
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Career Statistics: (9) 5-2-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-1-0
Saratoga Statistics: (2) 2-0-0
Technical Analysis enters this race off a wire-to-wire win in the G3 Gallorette Stakes. She set the pace along the rail and held on down the stretch winning by over three lengths. A month before that, she was the runner up in the Plenty of Grace Stakes. In that four horse field she led into the final sixteenth but was beaten by a head. In her last race of 2021 she was the runner up again in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes. She’s raced twice at Saratoga before winning both including the G2 Lake Placid Stakes and G3 Lake George Stakes.
Creative Flair
Owner: Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Charles Appleby
Jockey: Jamie P. Spencer
Career Statistics: (9) 4-1-2
2022 Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
Saratoga Statistics: (1) 0-0-1
Creative Fair returns from Dubai where she won the G2 Balanchine. She’s started her career across the pond but has raced the States twice before. Last year she ran 3rd in the G3 Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes. She came off the pace but was unable to run down the winner. In her lone other U.S. race, she ran 4th in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational at Belmont. Her last race was really encouraging as she stepped up in class and was able to handle the competition. This will be her first Grade 1 Stakes that she’s entered so she’ll need to rise to the occasion again.
Bleecker Street
Owner: Peter M. Brant
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Career Statistics: (7) 7-0-0
2022 Statistics: (5) 5-0-0
Saratoga Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Bleecker Street’s the morning line favorite and deservedly so as she enters the Diana unbeaten. In her last start, she won the G1 New York States at Belmont Park. She was in dead last and rallied coming down the stretch to win by half a length. Before that, she won the G3 Modesty Stakes, G2 Hillsborough Stakes, and G3 Endeavour Stakes. In her last three races she’s put up some impressive speed figures. She’s never raced at Saratoga before so this will be her first trip at the Spa.
Rougir
Owner: Peter M Brant and Michael B Tabor
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Career Statistics: (16) 5-1-3
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-0
Saratoga Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Rougir finished 5th in her last start, losing to fellow entrant Bleecker Street in the G1 New York Stakes. She was middle of the pack the whole race and was outkicked coming down the stretch. In the race prior, she won the G3 Beaugay Stakes angling five wide into the upper stretch taking command inside the eighth pole. She made her state side debut in the G1 Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Turf where she finished 7th. Over sea’s she raced in five other G1 stakes finishing 3/8/5/4/1. Given her last race against the favorite, I don’t see her winning this but given her past performances she does have a shot at finding the money.
Dalika
Owner: Bal Mar Equine, LLC
Trainer: Albert M Stall Jr.
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Career Statistics: (26) 7-7-0
2022 Statistics: (1) 0-1-0
Saratoga Statistics:
Dalika’s the oldest horse in the race and with that, the most race’s under her belt. She’s only had one start this year, finishing runner-up in the G3 Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes. In that race she led throughout but yielded in the late stages. Prior to that, she ran 9th in the G1 First Lady Stakes after a slow start. Her last win was in July of 2021 in the G3 Robert G Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park. This is an interesting horse for sure as her speed figures have been good in her past three starts. However, I’m not sure she has the speed to win this race.
In Italian
Owner: Peter M Brant
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Career Statistics: (6) 3-2-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
Saratoga Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
In Italian has finished in the money in each of her four starts this year. In her last race, she ran 3rd in the G1 Just a Game Stakes. She led heading into the quarter pole but was out paced down the stretch. Prior to that, she was the runner-up in the G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes and won the G3 Honey Fox Stakes. My concern with this horse is the additional distance.
Picks:
WIN: (3) BLEECKER STREET
Let’s not over complicate things here, Bleecker Street is the best horse in this race by far. There’s no real over powering speed that’ll be too much for her to run down. She’ll follow her usual path of hanging off the pace then pulling away down the stretch.
EXACTA PART WHEEL: 3/ 2, 6
Race Information:
Name: Sanford Stakes
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade III
Race: 10
Post Time: 6:13 PM ET
Length: 6 Furlongs
Purse: $175,000
Division: Open | Two Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Wgt
ML Odds
1
Boppy O (FL)
2/C
120
15-1
2
Major Dude (KY)
2/C
120
10-1
3
Great Navigator (NJ)
2/C
120
12-1
4
Forte (KY)
2/C
120
5-2
5
Curly Jack (KY)
2/C
120
6-1
6
Mo Strike (KY)
2/C
120
8-1
7
Prove Right (KY)
2/C
120
30-1
8
I’m Wide Awake (NY)
2/C
120
20-1
9
Andiamo a Firenze (NY)
2/C
120
7-2
10
Roman Giant (KY)
2/C
120
20-1
11
Puttheblameonme (PA)
2/C
120
30-1
12
Valenzan Day (FL)
2/C
120
6-1
Picks:
WIN: (2) MAJOR DUDE
Major dude broke his maiden at Monmouth Park a little under a month ago. While some may stay away from him due to where he won his first race, I don’t mind it. Pletcher has done this in the past by giving his horses an easier win in their first race to build confidence. The pace should be fast so it sets up nicely for this horse who closed nicely in his maiden.
EXACTA BOX: 2, 4, 9
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Coming off a 1-1, +0.1u night, I’m looking to start the weekend off strong. My MLB record for the year sits at 102-98-3, +0.94u, and I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Braves/Nationals F5 OVER 5(-105)–6:05 PM CT
Each of tonight’s SP’s faced this same lineup in their last start. I hate this spot for Starting Pitcher’s, and this angle has treated us well this year.
It’s not hard to see why Nationals SP Patrick Corbin is a “play against” arm. In 18 starts this year, Corbin holds an ugly 5.70 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, allowing nearly 12 hits/9 innings. Not only is this a bad spot, but this is a tough matchup facing off against a Braves lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in wRC+ vs lefties on the road. In addition to allowing 4 ER in Atlanta last week, Corbin allowed 6 ER in less than 3 IP vs the Braves in his home ballpark earlier this season. Corbin clearly doesn’t match up well with this lineup, and it wouldn’t be all that shocking if the Braves get this bet through by themselves.
With that said, I hate what I’ve seen from Braves SP Ian Anderson this season. Following a pretty solid rookie campaign in 2021, all Anderson has done is put up an ERA at 5.00 and paired that with a gross 1.51 WHIP. Not only is Anderson allowing over 1 hit per inning, but he’s also walking well over 4 batters per 9 innings. I’m not going to try and convince you the Nationals are come juggernaut offensively, but against Anderson this year, they have managed 6 ER in 9.1 innings.
I want a piece of each of these lineups early in this game facing off against vulnerable arms in a proven-to-be bad spot.
I don’t lay -125 on F5 run-lines often, but if I am, it’s going to be with a guy like Clayton Kershaw. In all honesty, this is a total mismatch.
Kershaw is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, carrying a 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP into tonight’s start. This is a very favorable matchup facing off against an Angels offense that has truly been one of the worst in baseball over the last 2 months. Since June 1st, LAA ranks 29th in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching. In addition, Mike Trout is dealing with a back ailment and is unlikely to play tonight(even if he does play, Trout has just a .704 career OPS in 20 meetings with Kershaw). Aside from Shohei Ohtani(who will have to deal with the lefty vs lefty matchup), the rest of this Angels lineup is atrocious. I think Kershaw delivers a gem in Anaheim tonight.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is also a guy I’m going to be looking to fade in the near future. His 2.95 ERA is incredibly deceiving; Sandoval holds a 1.39 WHIP, allowing nearly 1 hit per inning while walking over 4 per 9 innings. The Dodgers have rounded into form over the past 2 weeks, holding an 11-2 record in the month of July and scoring over 5 runs/game in that stretch. They rank 7th in the league in wRC+ vs lefties on the road, which is plenty good enough for me to trust them in this matchup.
*MLB(0.8u): Rockies -1.5(+125) vs Pirates–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies just took 3 out of 4 at home against the Padres and are a team that historically plays very well in their home ballpark. Tonight presents another favorable matchup.
Pirates SP Jose Quintana held an ERA as low as 2.19 in late May, but unsurprisingly, we’ve seen him regress substantially over the course of the season. With a WHIP at 1.31, this is still a guy I’m going to look to fade in his tougher matchups. The Rockies lead the league in OPS vs left-handed pitching in their home ballpark and scored 7 runs/game this week against a talented Padres pitching staff.
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a down year, but he has shown signs of life over his past 4 or 5 starts. While he’s not managed the conditions of Coors Field well this year, he held a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP in this role last year and has been arguably the Rockies’ best arm over the past 5 years. In all honesty, I think he’s catching the Pirates at the perfect time for his sake. Not only has Pittsburgh played extra-inning games in back-to-back days, but this is also their 4th stop on their current road trip. We saw the bats cool off mightily this week in Miami, and overall, they rank just 27th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching on the road this year.
While neither of these bullpens is particularly good, I do give the Rockies the edge in this area. In addition to knowing how to work around the conditions that Coors Field offers, the Rockies did not use their 3 best arms in yesterday’s win. By nature of playing 2 straight extra-inning games, the Pirates bullpen is absolutely shot. For the guys that do take the mound, I have low hopes as to how they’ll adjust to the conditions at Coors Field.
We’re 0-1 to start our free picks here at the OddsBreakers and that loss was especially brutal. The Sun were up 20ish nearly all game before giving up 35 points in the 4th quarter and 8 points in the final:45 seconds to lose by the hook. Not fun, but we move on!
Lynx -3.5, 1 unit*
The Lynx are coming off a disappointing 92-87 loss to the Dallas Wings last night and they now hit the road for a matchup with the Fever tonight in Indianapolis. Not only does that make this a back-to-back for Minnesota, but it’s also a 3-in-4 with the first of those three games having gone into double OT against the Mercury on Tuesday. In most situations, I’d look to fade a team in this type of schedule spot, but I’m going to lay the points with the Lynx tonight.
Minnesota has turned a major corner in the last three weeks, winning six of their last nine games by an average of 16.3 PPG. Their only losses in that timeframe have come against the Ace and Sky, two of the top teams in the league, and the Wings last night. They’re also 7-2 ATS.
One of the biggest reasons for their recent resurgence is the return of Sylvia Fowles from her knee injury. Fowles is one of the game’s greats, so it makes sense that she would have a positive impact on her team. Having her back has brought a new mentality to the floor for Minnesota. Aerial Powers is also another big reason. After a rough start to the season, Powers has finally found her grove, averaging 21 points over the last five games, and is playing at a much higher level than we saw early on. The Lynx have been waiting for her to take on the lead guard role and her ability to do that as of late has been a huge difference maker for this team.
Indiana won the previous two meetings with Minnesota by a combined 10 points. However, the first win came early in the season when the Lynx looked like a completely different team than they do now. The second win came in June when Minnesota was without Fowles, and Powers had yet to turn up her game. I don’t see the Lynx getting swept by the worst team in the league.
Minnesota is also eyeing a playoff spot, something that didn’t look possible with the way they started the season. They sit just a game and a half outside of the 8th spot, which means every win matters from here on out. The same can’t be said for Indiana. With only five wins on the season, the Fever’s playoff hopes are pretty much dead. And they know that too. The focus for Indiana for the rest of the season is to develop their young players, get them good minutes, and elevate their experience.
The Fever looked lifeless for all but the fourth quarter of their last game against the Sun, and I think we see a similar team tonight. Minnesota is going to come into this game with revenge on their mind. Plus, I’d much prefer to back a team that has something to play for, even if they are a bit short on rest. It’s all Lynx for me tonight!
More free plays to come next week. In the meantime, you can check me out on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok @kateconstable.
It’s not too often when I want to step in front of a 10 game winning streak so I think that maybe we cut this game in half. The Mariners are on a hug 10 game winning streak with an 8th inning comeback vs the Rangers last night. Now the Rangers are at home looking for revenge here at home with Matt Bush at the helm. Matt is a pretty good pitcher with a 3.71 FIP at a massive 12.13 K/9 innings. Seattle has lefty Robbie Ray pitching with a 3.51 ERA and a 3.93 FIP. Now the Mariners are not that much better than the rangers according most power ratings. Maybe 5 or 6 teams higher, but the kicker is that the Rangers are a massive 2nd ranked vs Left Handed pitchers in all of MLB! Don’t over think this and take the 1st 5 with the plus money!
MLB loves a tie for us, but we were + units overall. Montreal and Edmonton scored way more than I thought but Edmonton covered, 1-1 there. And we hit another WNBA pick. Onto Friday!
For those of you who might not have seen my announcement on Twitter, I’ve signed with the 33rd Team as their Head of Betting. This will NOT affect my premium pick selling in any negative way, but it WILL provide me with rare insider NFL content that could only help my NFL plays. The 33rd team is run by two previous NFL team owners – Mike Tannenbaum and Joe Banner – and they have former players, GMs, and coaches who write and contribute to their content. Pretty amazing stuff, I feel very grateful, and kudos to those of you who already signed up for the full NFL season with me! Seems smart!
MLB Picks:
Marlins/Phillies under 7 (-120), to win 1 unit
A great setup for an under, Alcantara leads a subpar offense into another game that he’ll likely have to hold on his shoulders if he wants his squad to win. Gibson is up and down but overall a winner and has plenty of stuff to limit Miami’s offense.
Braves/Nationals over 9.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Something about Atlanta vs. DC always feels like over-city and while the Braves just finished a challenging series against a much better offense in NYM, they might let their guard down against a Nationals team that can still slug. Don’t be surprised if Washington wins a few in this series — an over is the play today.
Orioles +114, to win 1.5 units
I’m going to bet against Baltimore right now? Psh! Wells has stepped up well, see what I did there, and I can’t play off this aggressive Orioles team who’s increasingly more confident and less intimidated by top-tier teams every night. Also Patino is very unproven, tough spot for the young man. I’m on the O’s cuz why wouldn’t I be?
Rockies -1.5 (+125), to win 1.25 units
German Marquez’s marks are down this year but his xERA tells us he’s experienced some bad luck. The Rockies at home, on a 3-game winning streak where they scored 23 runs in that span, against a Pittsburgh squad that struggles scoring even in advantageous environments… I’ll take Colorado by margin.
CFL Picks:
Calgary vs. Winnipeg (-3), Friday
Total over 48.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Total over 47.5, (-110), to win 1.5 units
Two of the most explosive offenses in the CFL, Winnipeg is the favorite to win it all for good reason, even though a lot of that is because of their defense. Calgary would love to challenge that Friday. The Blue Bombers are capable of sticking with any team and it’s likely that the Stampeders will show up big time on the ground. Calgary’s Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best rushers in Canada and if the away team can punch Winnipeg in the mouth early and open up the pass, points won’t be limited in this contest. Like the over.
Saskatchewan vs. Toronto (+2.5), Saturday
Toronto Argonauts +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has moved down in Toronto’s favor and I agree with the movement. Toronto can look like a formidable team at home– that’s where they won one game and kept it very close against the league-best Winnipeg, losing to the Blue Bombers by only 1 point. But that doesn’t mean that should be the norm. Or does it? At first glance the Toronto offense appears very pedestrian. Check the stats and they’re a bottom tier team in most categories. Look deeper and you’ll see that in other stats that matter, like yards per play, they can keep games close when they’re in a favorable spot. Saskatchewan is a good outfit but this is a sleepy contest for them and they’re not as good on the road. I’ll take a desperate Argonauts squad to keep this within distance or win.
WNBA Pick:
Lynx -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Lynx are chasing the playoffs and have plenty to play for. After a disappointing loss last night, tonight’s road game against Indiana is a really tough spot but I have to keep fading the home team. Indiana looked lifeless in their last contest and although Minnesota should be tired, the margin for error is too small to let a game they should win get away from them. Lynx cover and then get some well-deserved rest.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
