With only 9 games to work with tonight, I’m sticking with 1 play to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rangers/Royals F5 OVER 4.5(+100)–7:10 PM CT
While the novice fan might not suspect it, each of these teams handle left-handed pitching quite well. The Royals rank 3rd in OPS vs lefties at Kauffman Stadium this season, while the Rangers rank 6th in OPS vs lefties on the road. Royals SP Kris Bubic has shown some slight improvements since being recalled from Triple-A earlier this month, but he still holds an abysmal 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season. Bubic is walking 5.3 batters per 9 innings while simultaneously allowing 1.6 HR/9; not exactly a recipe for success if you ask me. Martin Perez might hold a 1.96 ERA on the season, but a WHIP at 1.13 is a strong indicator that Perez is going to encounter some serious regression. While Perez has escaped jams consistently, his 1.67 WHIP across his last 4 starts is an even stronger sign that Perez is starting to play with fire. The Royals offense is anything but a juggernaut, but their success against lefties at home speaks for itself; they are more than capable of getting after Perez tonight. Considering each offense has found success in this role combined with my skepticism surrounding each SP, I feel comfortable playing this F5 Over.
We’ll take another winning day in MLB! Def feels like we’re catching a stride and just understanding things on a different level right now, definitely “different” than 2 months ago. Don’t want to take ourselves too seriously ever, especially on the bases, but it’s nice to see some positive regression. I think it’ll continue. Pretty pumped that Wimbledon starts today, too. Expect some parlays and consistent ATS plays throughout the week! Happy Monday!
MLB Picks:
Dodgers/Rockies over 11.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
The Dodgers just survived another tough series with a 2-1 win over Atlanta, and not shockingly Colorado just got embarrassed on the road, again, especially in terms of their batters. Sending two subpar pitchers onto the mound in Denver today, we expect a ton of scoring. Wouldn’t be shocked if Colorado upset LAD, either.
Blue Jays -1.5 (+110), to win 1.1 units
Gausman has had a rough few weeks but he’s due to improve after showing sub 3.00 ERA numbers in his first 2 months on the mound. This is a nice setup today against newcomer Connor Seabold, who’s getting called up from Triple A to take on a superior Toronto lineup at home. Like the home team Jays by margin!
The AFC North – Somehow got two teams into the playoffs last year after this division faced a lot of adversity. The Steelers had an aging quarterback and a bad offensive line, the Ravens pretty much injured everyone trying to win preseason games, and the Browns… Well, they turned back into the Browns with some bad coaching and a banged up Baker Mayfield. The Bengals really benefited from all of this turmoil, but should we expect them to repeat as division winner this year? We shall see. One thing that I know is that this division has had no coaching changes and it will be very interesting to see who comes out on top. The AFC North plays the AFC East and the NFC South which I would call a medium type setup for their schedule. Let’s not forget that the whole AFC plays the extra at large away game vs the NFC.
Baltimore Ravens –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -150
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.94
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ New York Giants, @ Jacksonville, vs Denver
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: S Deshon Elliott, CB Athony Averett, C Bradley Bozeman, WR Sammy Watkins, DT Brandon Williams, DE Justin Houston, IL LJ Fort
Key additions: FS Marcus Williams, RT Morgan Moses, CB Kyle Fuller, RB Mike Davis
Key Draft Picks: S Kyle Hamilton, C Tyler Linderbaum, EDGE David Ojabo, TE Charlie Kolar, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis, TE Isaiah Likely and a bunch of dudes
Summary: This team started the year in shambles last year due to John Harbaugh’s stubborn ways of wanting to win in the preseason and going through tough practices. This technique is a double edged sword because it does prepare you better for the regular season when you are hitting hard, but it does open you up to more injuries and the Ravens started the season without some Offensive lineman and without their top two running backs in JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. I have to give the Ravens back some love for all the injuries last year, but they also have a very interesting schedule going through the AFC East the first four games of the season. The good news for this team is that they have an easy 4th place schedule coming into this year and they also have added more to their team than subtracted through a ton of draft picks and some good free agency moves. This team will look great coming into the season and you can see how much the Market likes them at a highly juiced 9.5 to the over in their season win total. My only issue with this team is that I do not completely trust Lamar Jackson when teams take away the middle of the field, and he is held into contain. More and more teams had figured that out and one has to wonder if Lamar can start throwing more accurately to the sidelines when needed.
My Number: 11.47
Action – Play the over
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 4.5
2. Cincinnati Bengals –
Vegas win total: 10 juiced to under -120
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 10.45
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Dallas, @ Tennessee, vs Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: TE CJ Uzomah, CB Darious Phillips, CB Trae Waynes, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key additions: G Alex Cappa, RT La’el Collins, C Ted Karras, TE Hayden Hurst
Key Draft Picks: S Daxton Hill, CB Cam Taylor-Britt, DL Zachary Carter and some dudes
Summary: Looking at my last year preseason thoughts on the Bengals makes me want to kick myself. Lean under 5.5 wins? What the hell was I thinking? Well, I guess that Joe Burrow proved that he really didn’t need an offensive line to make things happen. This team won 10 games and went to the super bowl last year. Heck, they could have won game 17 vs Cleveland had they not benched their players. Once thing that I will say is that things really turned out well for the Bengals with massive injuries within the division and some big last minute wins not only during the regular season, but in the playoffs as well. Now the Bengals were very fortunate to have an easy schedule last year but this year they will be now punished with a first place schedule and some very hard at large games added to playing a healthier division. Due to this schedule, I am not going to be in the market to bet over the 10 wins, but I will say that at least their Pythagorean win total last year was 10.45. I also absolutely love how this team paid for their offensive line with some guaranteed studs instead of relying on more of a crap shoot in the draft. I expect the Bengals to be in contention for the division at some point, but in no way to I feel that they will run away with it.
My Number: 9.23
Action: Lean Under
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: 3.75
3. Pittsburgh Steelers –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the under -130
2021 Wins: 9.5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.91
Schedule: Hard – At large vs @ Philadelphia, @ Indianapolis, vs Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, G Trai Turner, CB Joe Haden, ILB Joe Schobert, C BJ Finney
Key additions: QB Mitch Trubisk y, ILB Myles Jack, C Mason Cole, CB Levi Wallace, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Key Draft Picks: QB Kenny Pickett, WR George Pickens, Edge DeMarvin Leal and some dudes
Summary: Mike Tomlin just can’t seem to get out of the playoffs and I am sure that this Pittsburgh team burned some folks money last year with nine wins and a playoff appearance. What I will say is that this Steelers team was certainly fortunate to get the Ravens and the Browns so banged up last year and their Pythagorean win totals shows that they over achieved by a massive 2.5 games. My biggest issue with the Steelers is that they didn’t do enough in my opinion to fix their offensive line. Believe it or not, I do not think that going from an elderly, immobile Big Ben down to a very talented yet non-confident Mitch Trubisky isn’t a huge downgrade, but what I will say is that if Tomlin doesn’t use Mitch properly and allow him to run for chunks of yards, it could be a long season for the Steelers. The optimistic side of Mitch is that he played for a terrible coach in Chicago, and he looked great last year in the limited games and the preseason on the Buffalo Bills. If not Mitch, maybe Kenny Pickett turns out, but he wasn’t a top 10 pick for a reason. I will say that I do see a lot of variance with this Steelers team and it would not shock me to see something good happen in Pittsburg.
My Number: 7.21
Action – No Play
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -.25
4. Cleveland Browns –
Vegas win total: PULLED
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.05
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs @ Atlanta, vs LA Chargers, @ Washington
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: QB Baker Mayfield, QB Case Keenum, TE Austin Hooper, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Richard Higgens, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, CB MJ Stewart, C JC Tretter, DE Takkarist McKinley, DT Malik Jackson
Key additions: QB DeShaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper, WR Jakeem Grant, QB Jacoby Brissett, DT Taven Bryan, DE Stephen Weatherly and a bunch of low class bums
Key Draft Picks: WR David Bell and a bunch of no names
Summary: According to Wikipedia, Baker Reagan Mayfield is an American football quarterback for the Shanghai Sharks of the National Football League. Seriously, look it up. Even though he is still a Brown, I can’t see any possible way that he stays with this team. My god did he cost himself some money. Maybe even around 100 million. We shall see the fallout soon. Now the jury is completely out on DeShaun Watson after they traded for him and lost some top draft picks in doing so, but that just makes this whole situation that much more uncertain. We don’t even know what kind of suspension the NFL will instate on Watson when this is all said and done. All that I see is that this team didn’t do much in the offseason as well as in the draft, and they lost a ton of production. I am going to assume that Jacoby Brissett starts this season which doesn’t look good for the Brownies. Another thing that sucks for this team is that two of their three at large games aren’t all that easy. If there is anything good to talk about, they still have a ton of talent all over the place, and a great offensive line that they paid for last year.
The Lightning took Game 5 by a score of 3-2. Game 6 will be back at Amalie Area where Tampa Bay has a 10-2 record this post season. Colorado still has lead in this series and will look to capture their first title since 2001.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 3-2)
Side Line Movement (COL: -120/ TBL: +100)
The home team has been the favorites in every game this series. However, that trend ends tonight as Colorado is the slight favorite. This is the first time all post season that Tampa Bay has been a home underdog.
Total Line Movement (6.0: +105/-125)
The total has been set at 6.0 for every game this series and that trend continues tonight. In Games 1 and 2, the total was juiced to the over. However, since Game 3 the under has been slightly juiced in every game since.
Trends:
Avalanche are 8-1 in road games this post season
Under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 home games
Game 6 Breakdown
The Lightning survived elimination once, can they do it again? This time they’ll be on home ice where they’ve had a ton of success this post season. In the playoffs, they have a 8-2 record.
Colorado, who dropped Game 5, has a great track record away from home. On the road this post season, they have a 8-1 record. Their only loss was at the hands of Tampa Bay in Game 3. In that game, they had more expected goals than the Lightning but, still lost 6-2. The difference in that game was goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a +4.68 GSAx compared to Kuemper’s -1.96 GSAx.
We turn to Game 6, where it should be an incredible game. The Lightning have shown time after time, that they can get themselves out of any situation. However, as I talked about in Game 5, they’ve been outplayed this entire series. Despite Tampa Bay’s never say die attitude, I think their run finally comes to a close tonight.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (OUT- Leg)
COL Injuries: A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand), V. Nichushkin (QUES- Lower Body)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-145/+115)
Game 1 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
Game 4 Team Total: 2 (OT)
Game 5 Team Total: 3
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in three out of the five games this series. At home this post season, the Lightning average 3.70 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 3.11 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-180/+145)
Game 1 Team Total: 4 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
Game 4 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 5 Team Total: 2
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in three out of the five games this series. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 4.55 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Lightning average 2.10 goals against per game.
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last sixteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Interesting note on this line: In Games 1-5, Killorn to record o0.5 points was listed at -150. In Game 6, the line has now dropped 15 cents to -135.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+185)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 5 Points: 0
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has recorded at least one point four times. Last game, his eight game point streak came to an end.
Ondrej Palat 0.5 Points (-140/+110)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Ondrej Palat has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last home games, he has recorded at least one point four times.
Valeri Nichushkin 0.5 Points (-135/+105)
Game 1 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 2 (2 Goals)
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Valeri Nichushkin has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has recorded at least one point only once.
Nathan MacKinnon 4.5 Shots on Goal (-170/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 5
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 6
Game 4 SOG: 8
Game 5 SOG: 6
Nathan MacKinnon has recorded over 4.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number four times.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Game 3 SOG: 4
Game 4 SOG: 2
Game 5 SOG: 3
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number four times.
Victor Hedman 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 3
Game 4 SOG: 7
Game 5 SOG: 5
Victor Hedman has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number three times.
Cale Makar 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100/-125)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 4
Game 3 SOG: 5
Game 4 SOG: 5
Game 5 SOG: 5
Cale Makar has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number every time.
This line has moved from 2.5 in Games 1-5 to 3.5 for Game 6.
Goalie Prop Breakdown
Andrei Vasilevskiy 33.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
Game 4 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 5 Saves: 35
In Vasilevskiy’s five starts this series, he has recorded more than 33.5 saves four times. At home this post season, the Lightning give up an average of 34.00 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.22 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 26.5 Saves (-110/-115)
Game 1 Saves: 20 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
Game 4 Saves: 37 (OT)
Game 5 Saves: 26
In Kuemper’s five starts this series, he has gone under this number in three times. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 29.78 shots against. At home this post season, the Lightning average 34.50 shots on goal for.
This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games to 25.5 in Games 4 and 5. Now, it jumps back up to 26.5 for Game 6.
Picks
[1u] Colorado Avalanche ml (-115) – DraftKings
We saw the Lightning get a few “iffy” goals by Kuemper in Game 5. As I mentioned in my last article, his play is the exact opposite of consistency. Andrei Vasilevksiy’s play in elimination games continues to be spectacular. While I don’t doubt his play in tonight’s matchup, the Avalanche should be able to get 2-3 by him tonight. Colorado has been great away from home this post season and I believe they close out the Lightning in six.
[0.50u] Cale Makar over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings
Cale Makar has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number every time.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
A lot going on at Farley Estate today so not as much time for explanations and extra verbiage. MLB regressed yesterday but hey, the Astros no-hit the Yankees, AT HOME, and Milwaukee probably should have won by margin. Whateverrrrr. That +900 UFC hit was pretty gnarly though, wasn’t it? Onto another zany Sunday!
MLB Picks:
Mets/Marlins under 8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Bullpens haven’t been overly used and two starting pitchers who can slow this game down should take an early command and bring this under.
Yankees -1.5 (+110), to win 1.65 units
Did you think I wouldn’t bet this? Nester Cortes’ is the perfect ace for NYY in this setup to tie the series and snag a win on Sunday. Yankees’ bats resurface today against the very hittable Urquidy.
Pirates/Rays first 5 over 3 (-125), to win 1 unit and
Rays first 5 -1 (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Conteras’ 2.89 ERA is fake news, plain and simple, and the Rays’ play is a hedge of sorts; Shanahan shouldn’t have any issue dominating a poor Pirates lineup.
Dodgers/Braves under 8.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Strider only had one truly bad outing and it was in his last start against SF. Gonsolin is 9-0 and he’s been arguably LAD’s best pitcher; says a lot among their crew. Like the under.
Stanley Cup, Game 6:
Lean, under 6
Like the NBA playoffs, this is getting really intense and the margin for error is thin. Both defenses probably play their best but I don’t have the balls to play it. Just a lean.
Sunday card has the Cup Finals 100% Play of the year in the NHL and a Powerful MLB Card with ESPN Sunday night Bases. We also have our 5* Soccer Game of the Month. MLB Comp play below.
On Sunday the MLB Comp play is on the NY. Yankees. From the MLB Database we note that Non Division home teams that were no hit as a home favorite vs an opponent that scored 4 or less runs are 4-0 going back to 2004. NY has won 3 of 4 off 2 losses. Houston has lost the last 4 vs a lefty. Cortes for NY is 3-0 at home with a 1.53 Era and 3-0 in day starts. Urquidy for the Astros has a 6.28 road Era. Look for the Yankees to take the finale. On Sunday we end another big week with our Cup Finals Play of the Year in the NHL,The Soccer Game of the Month and a Powerful MLB Card with the ESPN Sunday night Play. sSee us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/FB to Jump on now as we continue to cash in all sports. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Yankees. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Will not have the same debacle I had last week with my entire article not saving, smh. Save as you go they say, lessoned learned. On the positive side we are in my wheelhouse the NFC East. Let’s break this thing down to project who will come out on top and find our best future bet!
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NFC EAST
Current Odds to win division, per Betonline.ag
Dallas Cowboys +120, Philadelphia Eagles +175, Washington Commanders +500,
New York Giants +750
Dallas Cowboys (+120):
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing back Michael Gallup, Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Malik Hooker, Jayron Kearse, Carlos Watkins, and Leighton Vander Esch. Bringing in James Washington and Dante Fowler Jr.
Dallas took the NFC East title in commanding fashion last season with a 12-5 record. Nothing has been too flashy during Dallas’s free agency or draft, all business and all defense. They put themselves in a tough spot which basically forced their hand to move number 1 receiver Amari Cooper to spread the wealth on the defensive side, re-uping 5 key players. Can’t really blame them as their defensive play was really coming together in 2021 and drafting 5 more defensive players to build on this solid foundation for the future.
Offensively all of their weapons are intact with the exception of Cooper being traded to the Browns. Is CeeDee Lamb ready to elevate to be that true number 1 receiver? I’d like to think so, but he has to figure out those drops he tends to have in crucial situations. With Cooper on the roster the Dallas’s WR Corps was extremely scary with Gallup rounding out the top 3. Now with James Washington being brought in to take on the role, it doesn’t scare me as much. Sure, James Washington has lightning speed and can stretch the field, but was never really happy in Pittsburgh wanting a bigger role. Here is his chance, but isn’t Pittsburgh the place where WR’s emerge; Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Diontae Johnson to name a few. If he didn’t land a big role there… who say’s he’s really going to make a huge impact in Dallas? They definitely took a huge step back in the WR department this off-season…but doesn’t mean they aren’t capable.
Like the Beauty and the Beast It’s a “Tale as old as time”, year in and year out for Dallas. They beat up on the NFC East, get a nice record then fade out in the playoffs. It’s almost comically predictable as we all know they have as many playoffs wins as Jacksonville does since 2000….3. Let that sink in! But the topic is the NFC East and there has not been a repeat champion of the NFC East since 2004. But with all of the key returning defensive pieces and having one of the easiest projected schedules in the league Dallas value is fully in play. My projected record for 2022: 12-5
Philadelphia Eagles (+175):
Key Free Agency Additions: Bring back Boston Scott, Derek Barnett, Anthony Harris.Bringing in Haason Reddick, Kyzir White, Zach Pascal, and Devon Allen.
As we all know Howie Roseman was beyond active this offseason. Wheeling and dealing and able to bring in a true Number 1 WR in AJ Brown that Philadelphia has not seen in quite sometime. The chatter is real in Philly and fans are ecstatic, going from rebuild in 2020 to lets win it all in 2022. I say let’s pump the breaks a little.
Eagles soared above expectations last season finishing 9-8 and sneaking into the 3rd Wildcard playoff spot. This was a great accomplishment for Rookie coach Nick Siriani and 2nd year QB Jalen Hurts, as this team was only expected to win 4-5 games. Now coming into the 2022 season expectations are high not only from blockbuster trades, but grabbing a lot of young defensive talent in the draft with tremendous upside.
The pieces are there offensively and defensively, but my red flag is the key piece of the league; the quarterback. Jalen Hurts checks so many boxes for me, he is a leader on and off the field, beyond athletic and intelligent, and has a fight in him perfect for Philly. The downside is his passing accuracy and touch with the football. Philly made their name last season running the ball with not only their running backs, but QB as well. Jalen Hurts in no way, shape, or form is a run first QB, but it was definitely a nice luxury/wrinkle to bail the Eagles out consistently to keep drives alive. We now have a full season of film on Hurts and these defensive coaches are really good with their schemes….really good. Hurts will need to elevate his passing abilities for Philly to truly take the reigns in this division and be able to go toe-to-toe with division rival/favorite Dallas. They have all the pieces and WR’s running in the 4.2-4.3’s, but if we are airmailing passes it will not be effective stretching the field. Eagles compete this year, but Wildcard has their name written all over it yet again. My projected record has them at 10-7.
Washington Commanders (+500):
Key Free Agency Additions: Carson Wentz (Via Trade), Bringing back J.D. McKissic, Bobby McCain, Cornelius Lucas, Cam Sim, Troy Apke, Tyler Johnson, and Danny Johnson. Bringing in Andrew Norwell, Efe Obada,
2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 16 (from NO via IND via PHI) – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State, Round 2: No. 47 (from IND) – Phidarian Mathis, DT, Alabama, Round 3: No. 98 (from NO) – Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama, Round 4: No. 113 – Percy Butler, S, Louisiana, Round 5: No. 144 (from CAR via JAX) – Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina, Round 5: No. 149 (from CAR) – Cole Turner, TE, Nevada, Round 7: No. 230 – Chris Paul, G, Tulsa, Round 7: No. 240 (from PHI via IND) – Christian Holmes, CB, Oklahoma State
Strength of Schedule: Tied 31st per CBSsports
I am a big believer for any organization to be successful it needs to be in-sync from top to bottom. Washington is not that type of organization. Way too many scandals and constant negative attention via the media at the top starting with owner Dan Snyder. This will never bode well for a team and lead to sustainable success on the field.
The big move for Washington this offseason was bringing in former Super Bowl Champion QB Carson Wentz (lol). Pretty crazy that is an accurate/absurd sounding statement. This was a decent move for both Colts and Washington in my opinion. Colts got out of dealing with Wentz who clearly clams up and can not take a team to the next level that is ready to win now. While Washington improved their QB room for rather cheap.
There is a decent foundation with this team solid coaching staff, capable defense, talented receiving/ TE play, and a very good running game. This team is going to give teams headaches, maybe not win record wise but will hang around. I really think Washington will be a very good team ATS this season, so that is definitely something to keep an eye on. Last season they finished at 7-10 and I have them pretty much staying in that realm, if not maybe taking a step back to a 6-11 projected record. I am a sucker for value, but +500 for a team that has no real identity and a ton of franchise issues does not interest me at all.
New York Giants (+750):
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing in Ricky Seals-Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Mark Glowinksi, Jamil Douglas, Jon Feliciano, and Matt Breida to name a few.
If I am a Giants fan I am absolutely ecstatic with the moves that have been made this offseason. First bringing in new head coach Brian Daboll and some of his regime from Buffalo. This move right here only as positive upside as we saw how Josh Allen was able to transition at the QB position in Buffalo. Hoping perhaps now the right staff is what Daniel Jones needs to elevate his play. The second thing I really liked is the commitment to Daniel jones by making a statement in the Draft grabbing Alabama’s OT Evan Neal in the first round, but also bringing 3 O-line men from free agency. One being Guard Mark Glowinski who hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons. They are giving Daniel Jones no excuses, heres your line, heres your protection…. now let’s get it done. Lastly, I still have hope for the upside in receivers like Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney. This receiving corps is very capable if healthy, but that is a big if. We know Giants have a solid running game when healthy with Saquon Barkley, adding Matt Brieda is a reliable change of pace back.
I like the upside on offense to do some things this season. Defensively is where the struggles will ensue and cost the Giants their games. There was a huge push in free agency for the offensive side of the ball, thus focusing more defensively in the draft. They will have young talent to develop. This season is all about seeing what they have with Daboll and Daniel Jones progress to then develop the team around him going forward, or scrap the QB and start from scratch in the 2023 Draft. Like the Washington Commanders I think the Giants could be a very good team ATS, but record wise I have them at 6-11.
Final Conclusion: Take Dallas +120
Even with all of the offseason moves that Philadelphia has made this offseason, Dallas is still the team to beat in this Division. It is a QB league and Jalen Hurts still needs to prove he has the arm talent to take the Eagles to the next level. Washington I think will trend in the opposite direction as New York takes positive steps for their future.
A 1-2 Friday is not how we wanted to start out the weekend, but I still remain +10.76u over the last 47 days. I’m rolling with a lone play for today trusting an arm that has treated us well all season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT UNDER 3.5(-115) @ Brewers–3:10 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes Day in Milwaukee! I’m 5-0 backing Burnes this season, and we’re going right back to the well this afternoon. The dominant righty has followed up an NL Cy Young season by recording a 2.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP here in 2022, but I’d argue he’s pitched even better than those numbers indicate. The only spot Burnes has faltered in this season is when he faces the same lineup for the second time in the span of 2 weeks; when you take those 2 instances out of the equation, Burnes has allowed 2 ER or less in 11 of his 12 starts and 1 ER or less in 8 of those starts. It’s not hard to see that Burnes is still the best pitcher in baseball. I understand that the Blue Jays can put up runs in bunches offensively, but this is the first time many of their bats will be facing Burnes in their career. The Jays are at a point where they will dominate virtually any mediocre arm, but they are not immune to being held down by the premier arms in this league. We saw them struggle with the bats for most of last weekend’s series with the Yankees, and they won’t just have to worry about Burnes in this one. While Burnes has gone 7 innings on six separate occasions this season, we have insurance in the back-end of the Brewers bullpen. The 7th-8th-9th inning trio of Brad Boxberger(2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), Devin Williams(2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and Josh Hader(0.83 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) is one of the best in baseball and a set of arms I’ll trust against any lineup. I’ve had success backing Burnes each of the past 2 seasons; I’ll trust him to bring his A game in today’s game.
Hi All! Baseball keeps being kind to us (yay / FINALLY) and we’re feeling much better about our handicapping these days. By my records (and please feel free to audit), we’re 77-77-3 on the season now officially. Unfortunately we’re still -9 units, but I expect we’ll be in + units before we know it. Let’s get more today!
MLB Picks:
Yankees and Brewers Plays available at TheOddsBreakers here. I also have a parlay on TB ML and NYY -1.5, worth considering!
Orioles/White Sox over 9 (-120), to win 1 unit
How comfortable do the O’s look in Chicago? Sheesh. Eventually these White Sox bats need to wake up and both of these pitchers have lost their mojo this season. As much as I love to see Baltimore’s improvements, especially from the mound, this one is bound to blow open early. Taking an over.
Athletics ML (+141), to win 1.41 units
I know it’s really hard to wager on the ultra-pedestrian Athletics and their even more pedestrian offense, but Brad Keller has NO business being graded with this sort of line. He’s 2-8 as a starter and before a rare win against Oakland last weekend, he allowed 31 hits and 18 runs 17 innings prior. Yikes! And we know what usually happens when a pitcher sees the same team the following weekend. I’m on the A’s for + money.
UFC Fight Night Picks:
Tsarukyan by Decision (+150), to win 1.5 units
This is going to be a great fight and probably should be on a PPV card. These two are both elite but I’ll put my trust in a superior takedown/grappling artist to get more points as this contest trudges on. I hate how these fights are getting judged but this is still the best value IMO.
Nurmagomedov by Submission (-110), to win 1.1 units
Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on this card for a reason and he should maul his opponent throughout this match. A submission win is the best discount we can get and he’s very capable; he’s won 4/5 matches in this fashion.
Chris Curtis by Decision (+900), to win 9 units
This is an absurd line for Curtis, who’s striking is levels above Vieira and as long as he can keep this on the feet, he’ll have a significant advantage throughout. Vieira is a gifted grappler but Curtis has a long history of avoiding takedowns in slipper fashion. I think a decision-victory is much more possible than +900 suggests, so we have to take it.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
Lean, AS Monaco ML (+120) on 6/25
They’re due, and these two teams tend to go back and forth. Value on the ML dog but I’m going to pull back and get more research done, for now.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Hey Everyone! Good to be back writing some MLB articles this summer. It probably won’t be as frequent as NFL and NBA since I don’t consider myself as much of an expert on the ol’ bases, but right now we’re right an 8-3, +6 unit hot streak and we’re settling into our MLB capping. Here are some free plays, below!
Notable Records: 57%, +130 career NBA record, 2021 NFL Circa Winner (5th, $114k)
Yankees -1.5 (+125): One look at Cristian Javier’s home/road splits and it’s easy to see why we love the Yankees today. Predictably, Houston grabbed a win with their ace on the mound last night, but NYY proved that against vulnerable pitching, it’s usually not a contest. I don’t see that changing today, especially with Gerrit Cole’s (3.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) on the mound. Cole commands the dirt today and he hasn’t had a bad game at home since April, with a solid average ERA of 3.00 at Yankees Stadium the last 2 months. Javier cannot say the same on the road. Look at his H/R splits and you’ll see what I mean- dude loses it quick away from Houston and allows way too many big slugs; that’s not a good thing against a NYY unit that only mustered 1 run last night and leads MLB in HR/per game. I like the Bronx Bombers by margin today.
Brewers -1.5 (+120): Milwaukee’s offense has been disappointing, to say the least. Their league rankings don’t lie: 24th in batting average, 26th in hits per game, 24th in strikeouts per game, and a boring 15th in points, averaging only 4.34 runs per contest. Their setup today should help. Yusei Kikuchi just keeps getting exposed and the Blue Jays just keep rolling him out and playing him for 4+ innings a start. Kikuchi is walking batters at a high rate (5.60/9 innings), allowing a ton of big hits (1.81 HR/9 innings), and his 6.57 xERA suggests this isn’t ending any time soon. He’s allowed 26 hits in the last 18 innings alone, a pretty staggering data point for any starter in MLB. Behind Corbin Burnes (2.31 ERA, 0.92 WHIP), who’s steady arm should be able to steer the ship against a talented Jays’ lineup, I like the Brewers to catch a stride today and take advantage of a highly vulnerable thrower. Milwaukee by margin for plus money = great value against Kikuchi.
