Massive Monday card has a 2x Perfect NBA Game 5 Historical System, a Perfect System MLB Total of the week and The Nations League Game of the Month. MLB Comp Play below
The MLB Comp ply for Monday is on the Under in the Miami at Philadelphia game at 7:05 eastern. A solid pitching matchup here with Alcantara who has a 1.81 Era and has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 48 innings, Her takes on Philly Ace A, Nola who has pitched under in 8 of 10 vs the Marlins. Philly has gone under 6 of 8 at home vs a team with a losing road record. From the database going back to 2004 we note that home favorites off a home favored loss that scored less than 4 runs and allowed 13 or more runs are a perfect 6 of 6 to the under vs a team off a loss like Miami. Look for this game to play under. On Monday Rob has another strong card and is #1 overall the last 30+ days on Multiple leader boards. Tonight a 2X Perfect Game 5 NBA System and the MLB Total of the week headlines. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the MLB Como play look for the under in the Miami vs Philly Game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Happy New Week, people! Nothing like an 0-3 Sunday to kick ya in the ass and get me even more motivated for a better week. I added another play on the 1Q in support of Boston since the line is now up to +1 – we’ll take it.
I’m also going to try and incorporate more foreign basketball plays, and I’ll be more and more judicious with our MLB plays. While I’m confident we’ll settle in and win more overall in baseball, it’s still a good idea to pull back right now and find opportunities elsewhere until that happens. It’ll likely result in more overall ROI over the summer, too, at least before the good ol’ NFL season begins, which brings more value to those of you who remain subscribed to my picks. Certainly makes re-subscribing more attractive! Onto the picks!
NBA Finals, Game 5:
Celtics 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
Celtics 1Q +1, 1 unit *
First Half over 103, 1 unit
Full Game under 212, 1.5 units
A lot to unpack here. Firstly, the roller-coaster-like nature of this series is forcing my hand a bit. Maybe we’re wrong, but even though the next game is at the Chase Center, I can only expect a professional and solid response from the Celtics. We’ve seen it time and time again – they thrive responding, especially on the road as dogs, and I like them early in this one. Although I think it’s VERY possible that the Warriors win (the line indicates they should), I would actually lean towards Boston to cover. Like Curry at the end of Game 4, the Celtics’ stars will push their wills at the end of this game in all likelihood.
As far as the totals go, I like our plays as a hedge but they’re also conducive to our narrative. Boston should come out very aggressive, which tends to push the Warriors’ pace, and Golden State’s offense is actually due for positive regression. Aside from Curry and Wiggins, the other contributors (lord knows, DRAYMOND) were not very effective offensively. I love points early but in such a contentious game, gotta love the full game under, too.
MLB Picks:
Braves -1.5 (+105), 1 unit
Atlanta lost their opening series against the Nationals very early in the season, but me thinks that won’t happen this go-round. Ian Anderson’s 3.78 xERA projects that he’ll settle into his command and show more consistency as the season goes on. Atlanta is on a tear, winning 11 straight heading to DC, and while this could be a letdown spot, we like the revenge angle and how can we trust the Nationals at this juncture? Braves by margin.
Marlins/Phillies under 7.5, 1 unit
Nola is starting to look in prime form again and although both of these units are top 10 in overs this season, this total is low for a reason. Alcantara has one of the best ERAs in baseball and his profile is perfect for a team like Philly – he limits HRs (0.43/9 innings) and he uses his 97 mph fastball confidently and without hesitation. I smell an under!
Foreign Basketball Picks:
Alba Berlin +5.5, 1 unit and
Alba Berlin vs. Bayern Munich over 158, 1 unit
This is another rematch between two of the best teams in the German pro league and we got pretty lucky that the last game didn’t go over. Scoring REALLY slowed down in the 4th but live lines had this game projected to finish around 165. We think it gets closer to that total today and Alba Berlin, while they won last time and they’re on the road today, is still the better team. +5.5 is a little too many points.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
The NFC West remained at the top of the totem pole last year with the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams winning it all while the division had three teams in the playoffs. Absolutely unreal. The Seahawks went from first to worst last year while the Niners had went from worst to the playoffs. The NFC West will get the NFC South and the AFC West this year which I will call medium hard in general. There are no head coaching changes, but there is certainly some uncertainty at the quarterback position for a few of these teams. Even though the NFC West has some great organizations, I have to think that this division takes a step back this year as a whole, but do not be surprised if we get someone back in the super bowl for 2023.
1. LA RAMS –
Vegas win total: 10.5
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.5
Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Buffalo, vs Dallas and @ Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: Edge Von Miller, CB Darious Williams, G Austin Corbett, DT Sebastian Joseph, RB Sonny Michel, LB Troy Reeder, WR Odell Beckham, T Andrew Whitworth
Key additions: ILB Bobby Wagner, WR Allen Robinson
Key Draft Picks: T Logan Bruss and a bunch of prayers
Summary: The Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams cut their long time quarterback Jared Goff, picked up veteran Matt Stafford and the rest was history. Do you feel bad for Goff? I have a rule to never feel bad for anyone who doesn’t have to work another day in their lives. This team lost a lot in free agency, but that is always expected from a Super Bowl Champion. The problem with the Rams is that they mortgaged their future drafts in order to collect a lot of this talent, and it might end up coming to bite them in the not so far away future. This team will be shifting their offensive line around being that Austin Corbett left to the Panthers and left Tackle Andrew Whitworth retired. This team loses some big names, but they at least keep the core whole. Also nice to see Aaron Donald signing again this past Monday. The Rams were pretty fortunate not to get very injured last year, and they should have some money to spend when needed. Don’t be surprised to seem some moves later for this team when they are in the mix for another super bowl run.
My Number: 9.75
Action – Lean Under
LA Rams power rating: 5.25
2. San Francisco 49ers –
Vegas Win Total: 10 juiced to the under
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 10.26
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Chicago, vs Miami, vs Washington
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Jimmy Garopollo?, G Laken Tomlinson, DT DJ Jones, CB K’Waun Williams, DE Arden Key, G Tom Compton, RB Raheem Mostert, CB Josh Norman,
Key additions: CB Charvarius Ward, S George Odum, ILB Oren Burks, DT Hassan Ridgeway
Key Draft Picks: Edge Drake Jackson and a bunch of bums
Summary: Ok, John Lynch is going to come out of the year either looking like an idiot, or looking like a genius. Not much middle ground there. The 49ers picked Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL draft when they could have gotten Mack Jones, or Justin Fields. Heck, they could have not even picked up a quarterback because Jimmy Garoppolo was extremely efficient ranking 4th in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation). I mean, he ranked higher than Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. Now, the 49ers are probably a little embarrassed by going so hard for Trey lance last year so they have decided to still try and pursue a trade for Jimmy G. Now when I saw Trey Lance play last year, he didn’t look much better than Jordan Love for the Packers or even Davis Mills for the Texans. Maybe he takes a huge step forward this year, but risking the better quarterbacks in the league is insane to me. Also keep in mind, the 49ers were very banged up at the skill positions making Garoppolo’s feat even that much more impressive. All of this is why the 49ers have to have a great second year performance out of division two quarterback Trey Lance in order for Lynch to look good. The next big issue with this team is that they lost some offensive lineman and some starters on defense while not having a particularly good draft this year with their 1st pick at number 61. I am concerned for this 49ers team and my number is only 8.63 wins. Now, do I want to go against Kyle Shanahan and take that under with a medium schedule? Well, I am not rushing to the Window to do that just yet.
My Number: 8.63
Action: Lean under
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 1.75 if Trey Lance, and 4 if Jimmy G
3. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5
2021 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.95
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Philadelphia, @ Minnesota, vs New England
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Christian Kirk, Edge Chandler Jones, RB Chase Edmonds, ILB Jordan Hicks, DE Jordan Phillips, DT Corey Peters, TE Demetrius Harris
Key additions: OLB Nick Vigil, RB Darrel Williams, WR Marquise Brown
Key Draft Picks: TE Trey McBride, Edge Cameron Thomas, Edge Myjai Sanders and a bunch of meh
Summary: Next time I see Steve Keim at my grocery store, I am going to ask him what the hell was he thinking in overpaying for Budda Baker, James Conner, and Justin Pugh? I really like JJ Watt and all, but his contract really handcuffed Keim on defense and now this team had to go hard on some late round edge rushers that most likely won’t pan out. Now to be quite honest, I do like the trade for Marquise Brown who might be better than Christian Kirk while being much cheaper at four years 11.7M, but that won’t make up for the defense that they lost in Chandler Jones, Jordan Hicks and Jordan Phillips. One big thing that you have to factor in this year for the Cardinals is fumble luck. This team recovered 14 opponent fumbles while only losing 4. That is a massive +10 number and it needs to be accounted for when coming up with wins totals. I think this Cardinals team will upset some teams, but I really can’t trust them and wonder how good Kyler will be with a nice fat paycheck slowing him down. Arizona was at least injured some last year so I had to give them a little back for that. Let’s see if they can take a step forward, but the market at 8.5 wins doesn’t seem to think so.
My Number: 8.73
Action – No lean
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: 1.75
4. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over
2021 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.9
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large @ Detroit, vs New York Giants, vs New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard –
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, ILB Bobby Wagner, S D.J. reed, TE Gerald Everett, T Jamarco Jones, DE Carlos Dunlap, T Duane Brown
Key draft picks: OT Charles Cross, Edge Boye Mafe, RB Kenneth Walker III and a bunch of dudes
Summary: I think that we can what Seattle is doing here quite easily when they let their best defensive player walk, while they traded their best offensive player and franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. Many fans think that they saw a big decline with Wilson over the past few years, but I actually blame the coaching and I do not think that the Seahawks were playing to Russell’s strengths. According to the Football database, Seattle ranked DEAD LAST in number of rushing plays, which doesn’t exactly help set up play action, and they really did not utilize their short to mid-range passing game using tight ends and dump offs to the running back. This team was too busy looking for the long ball ranking 1st in intended air yards. Last year Wilson ranked 5th in quarterback rating according to next gen stats. The Seahawks had a pretty big Pythagorean win total difference of 8.9 Pythag to 7 actual wins while they ranking a massive 9th in overall DVOA. In saying all of this, for 2022 it is clearly a rebuild year and I really do not think that Drew Lock has much of a chance behind this dreadful offensive line in this very difficult division. I do like how they drafted for a first year of rebuild, and will be curious where they draft next year.
Quicker email today – a lot going on at the Farley estate.
Many of you and either on monthly subscription packages or your tied up with me for the NBA season, which will end by next week. Especially for those members, please consider the discounts at TheOddsBreakers for my premium picks moving forward. Hard to find a better deal anywhere for how much we win!
Thank you for all of your support as always – I love giving you guys winners! Onto my picks:
NBA Finals, Game 5:
Celtics 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
First Half over 103, 1 unit
Full Game under 212, 1.5 units
A lot to unpack here. Firstly, the roller-coaster-like nature of this series is forcing my hand a bit. Maybe we’re wrong, but even though the next game is at the Chase Center, I can only expect a professional and solid response from the Celtics. We’ve seen it time and time again – they thrive responding, especially on the road as dogs, and I like them early in this one. Although I think it’s VERY possible that the Warriors win (the line indicates they should), I would actually lean towards Boston to cover. Like Curry at the end of Game 4, the Celtics’ stars will push their wills at the end of this game in all likelihood.
As far as the totals go, I like our plays as a hedge but they’re also conducive to our narrative. Boston should come out very aggressive, which tends to push the Warriors’ pace, and Golden State’s offense is actually due for positive regression. Aside from Curry and Wiggins, the other contributors (lord knows, DRAYMOND) were not very effective offensively. I love points early but in such a contentious game, gotta love the full game under, too.
MLB Picks:
No Run in 1st Inning (-135), to win 1 unit
The Athletics continue to have one of the worst offenses in baseball, with only Detroit eclipsing them as THE worst in many categories. Both Irvin and Quatrill have been steady in allowing a few hits, which neither of these teams are great at producing, and limiting runs. I like this game to start slow.
Phillies -1.5 (even), to win 1.5 units
The Phillies are on a TEAR since dismissing Girardi and the players are saying how much better their communication is with their new interim coach. Kyle Nelson has some good tools but he’s young and this Philly lineup is playing with a ton of confidence. I think they keep it rolling and win by margin again today.
White Sox (-150), to win 1 unit
Kopech was brilliant last week against LAD and the Chicago bats won’t have nearly the same challenge against Jon Gray, who’s been in struggle-city in this short season.
The third leg of the triple crown is finally here, and we have a fun one with eight competitors. I have to be honest when I say that this is one of the weaker fields for the Belmont when it comes to recent history, but these horses are at least the best bunch that we could get coming in. I still think that the very best horse in America is Epicenter, but he will not be racing today due to his recent places in the first two triple crown races, and this horse needs rest. We can expect Epicenter to come back for the Breeders Cup. Please see the odds Below courtesy of Patrick Gates.
Post Position
Horse
Morning Line Odds
1
We the People
2-1
2
Skippylongstocking
20-1
3
Nest
8-1
4
Rich Strike
7-2
5
Creative Minister
6-1
6
Mo Donegal
7-2
7
Golden Glider
20-1
8
Barber Road
10-1
My strategy is simple. I like the co-favorite Mo Donegal to win this thing. He is a distance horse who will not get caught up in the pack in an eight horse field. His Beyers has been 90 or better over the last four races and Todd Pletcher has been known to perform well at the Belmont with three wins. The other horse that I am keying in on is Creative Minister. This horse has Tapit bloodline and had a decent third place finish at the Preakness with a 100 beyers speed figure. This horse should close well. The two horses that I am tossing is Skippylongstocking which I will never type again, and Golden Glider who hasn’t won since January. Now the Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike will take some money today, but I am in the belief that this horse was mainly a fluke due to a perfect trip, and will take 3rd at best in this race. My strategy is putting my two ponies on top and hitting the rest of them below. I have a saver exacta ticket boxed up for the 6 horses just in case. Best of luck everyone!
Well of course I couldn’t stay off Twitter and I sounded off about the 1Q under loss – that was a brutal, brutal beat. But overall how can we complain? Still a winning overall night, in both NBA and MLB, and we’re doing well in these NBA Playoffs. Onto the next!
NBA Finals, Game 5:
Celtics 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
First Half over 103, 1 unit
Full Game under 212, 1.5 units
A lot to unpack here. Firstly, the roller-coaster-like nature of this series is forcing my hand a bit. Maybe we’re wrong, but even though the next game is at the Chase Center, I can only expect a professional and solid response from the Celtics. We’ve seen it time and time again – they thrive responding, especially on the road as dogs, and I like them early in this one. Although I think it’s VERY possible that the Warriors win (the line indicates they should), I would actually lean towards Boston to cover. Like Curry at the end of Game 4, the Celtics’ stars will push their wills at the end of this game in all likelihood.
As far as the totals go, I like our plays as a hedge but they’re also conducive to our narrative. Boston should come out very aggressive, which tends to push the Warriors’ pace, and Golden State’s offense is actually due for positive regression. Aside from Curry and Wiggins, the other contributors (lord knows, DRAYMOND) were not very effective offensively. I love points early but in such a contentious game, gotta love the full game under, too.
MLB Picks (I don’t love the board today, a lot of even or lopsided matchups):
Rays (-140), to win 1 unit
Young Shane Baz has prodigy potential as a major league pitcher and today he’ll oppose Chi Chi Gonzalez, who’s never been great and started off this season looking as vulnerable as ever. An alt-line on Tampa may not be a bad idea here, either.
Parlay- Yankees/Blue Jays/Padres in Game 2: 1 unit to win 1.96 units
UFC 275 Picks:
Taila Santos Wins Within Distance (+1000), 1 unit
Let’s take a shot! Arguably no fighter in the UFC, male or female, is more talented or skilled than Valentina, but Santos is as tough as it gets. She also has the height and reach advantage in this matchup. At 19-1 and with many in-fight stoppage wins, I’m absolutely putting a unit on Taila to get the big upset. Eventually, like any hall of famer, Valentina’s chances of “getting caught” are on the rise. Perfection is not a thing that any of us can fully achieve – pull it off, Santos!
Jiri Prochazka Wins Within Distance (-165), to win 1 unit
Glover Teixeira is the champion for a reason and no doubt he’s a bonafide martial arts genius. He has so many tools he can beat you with and he’s the superior grapper in this fight, no doubt. But Jiri has a relentlessness and force about his striking, along with his pure size and athleticism advantage, that gives me literally no choice but to take this bet. There’s probably more value on Glover (duh, plus money), but it feels like the time is now for Glover to get overwhelmed by a younger, hungrier beast.
Lean, Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+136)
Unfortunately there’s not a ton of value in this fight, and it’s likely to go the distance but that’s mega juiced too. I just can’t see the electric Joanna give up two fights to Zhang. She’s too good.
Parlay- Allen, Choi, Prochazka: 1 unit to win 1.77 units
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Saturday card has a rare 6* NHL Perfect totals system, the Belmont Stakes and a Powerful MLB Diamond Cutter System. MLB Afternoon Comp Totals Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the Under in the Oakland at Cleveland game at 4:10 eastern. This game applies to a solid under system that has hit 24 of 31 under since 2004 for home favorites in this range and a total of 8 or less off a home favored win scoring 3 or less and a prior home win scoring 7 or more vs a team that scored 2 or less runs. In the series 31 of 45 have stayed under here. Oakland has gone under 6 of 8 on the road vs a winning team, 20 of 27 in game 3 of a series. Cleveland has gone under the last 6 in game 3 of a series and 5 of 7 at home vs a right hander. Montas for Oakland has gone under in 5 of 6 and has allowed 2 or less in 5 straight starts. Plesac has pitched well allowing just 3 runs in 12 innings in his last 2 starts. Look for this game to stay under. On Saturday another powerful card is up and led by a rare 6* NHL Playoff totals system that is perfect since 2004. We also have another Powerful MLB Diamond Cutter and the Belmont Stakes analysis. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the MLB Totals Play go Under 8 Oakland vs Cleveland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
The final jewel of the Triple Crown for 2022 takes place Saturday with the Belmont Stakes. The 154th running of the Belmont Stakes will feature Rich Strike who won the Kentucky Derby but decided to skip the Preakness Stakes. Despite him winning the first leg of the Triple Crown, he is not the morning line favorite. The last time we saw a horse win the Triple Crown was back in 2018 when Justify took down all three legs.
First run in 1867 at Jerome Park in the Bronx, the final leg of the Triple Crown is the toughest challenge. It is the longest leg of the three races at a 1 1/2 miles and is most remembered for Secretariat’s 31-length victory in 1973.
I’ll breakdown the field of eight in the final leg of the Triple Crown and give my best shot at picking the winner.
76 F and Overcast. Only 19% participation so rain should not be an issue and the track conditions should be fast.
TV Schedule:
CNBC – 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
NBC – 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Morning Line Odds
1
We the People
2-1
2
Skippylongstocking
20-1
3
Nest
8-1
4
Rich Strike
7-2
5
Creative Minister
6-1
6
Mo Donegal
7-2
7
Golden Glider
20-1
8
Barber Road
10-1
Horse Preview:
We the People
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, Booby Flay, CMNWLTH and Siena Farm LLC
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Career Statistics: (4) 3-0-0
2022 Statistics: (4) 3-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
The morning line favorite is coming off an impressive race in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes winning by over ten lengths. The Peter Pan is often used as a prep race for the Belmont Stakes. He led from start to finish with a 101 Equibase speed figure in that race. In that race he did beat fellow entrant GoldenGlider who ran 2nd. However, he the track conditions were wet which aided early speed like himself. Those conditions will not be replicated on Saturday so he will be vulnerable. Prior to winning the Peter Pan, he struggled in the G1 Arkansas Derby finishing 7th and looked washy. Before those two races he won in his two other starts.
His last race was on turf but he’ll transition back to dirt here, a surface he raced on in his first two starts. In terms of distance he has yet to race at 1 1/2 which isn’t all that uncommon as this distance is a rarity. His longest race to date was at a 1 1/8 mile which was last race in the Peter Pan.
Falvien Prat has been the jockey We the People in the past two races.
Skippylongstocking
Owner: Daniel Alonso
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Career Statistics: (10) 2-1-2
2022 Statistics: (5) 1-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Skippylongstocking finished 5th in the G1 Preakness Stakes in his last start. In his five starts this season, he only has one win which came in a $75k Allowance optional claimer. In that race he did have a great speed figure but since then he finished with an Equibase speed figure below 100 in both races. He faced fellow entrant Mo Donegal two races in the G2 Woodnine Memorial where Mo Donegal won and he finished 3rd. Looking at this horse, I just don’t see him competing in this race.
Manuel Franco has never ridden Skippylongstocking before.
Nest
Owner: Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and House
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Career Statistics: (6) 4-1-1
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-1-0
Belmont Statistics: (2) 1-0-1
Nest, daughter of Curlin, has won two of her three races this year. Curlin finished 2nd in the Belmont Stakes back in 2007. Nest is in fact the only filly to enter this race. In her last two outs she finished 2nd in G1 Kentucky Oaks and 1st in the G1 Ashland Stakes. In the Kentucky Oak’s she ran second to Secret Oak who ran fourth in the Preakness. However, in both of those races the track conditions were wet fast (wf) which is something she wont face in the Belmont. Regardless of the track conditions, this horse has been incredibly impressive this year. Besides Rich Strike, who won the Kentucky Derby, she is the only horse with a Grade 1 victory to her name.
Nest is looking to become just the fourth filly ever to win the Belmont Stakes. Rags to Riches was the last female to accomplish the feat back in 2007.
Jose Ortiz has ridden Nest in her last four starts. Her usual rider Irad Ortiz will be aboard Mo Donegal.
Rich Strike
Owner: RED TR-Racing, LLC
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon
Career Statistics: (8) 2-0-3
2022 Statistics: (4) 1-0-2
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Rich Strike fresh off a Kentucky Derby victory at 80-1 skipped the Preakness but makes his return for the last leg of the triple crown. That victory in the Kentucky Derby was his lone win of the 2022 season in four starts.
There’s no need to breakdown this horse, I’m just going to break down the two narratives. Either you think that Rich Strike is improving each race, which he is, and will continue that upward trend here. Or, you believe that his performance in the Kentucky Derby was an outlier and this horse isn’t as good as his last race.
The Kentucky Derby was his longest race to date and he’ll add another quarter of a mile in the Belmont. Honestly, I’m not sure what to make of this horse. His speed figures have improved in each of his past six races but as we saw in the Derby, a lot of favorites got bad trips. He is a front runner which historically has been the path to success at the Belmont.
Sonny Leon has ridden Rich Strike in his past five starts.
Creative Minister
Owner: Fern Circle Stables, Back Racing LLC and Magdalena Racing
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
Career Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Creative Minster, just like We the People, has started his career in 2022. To date this three year old colt only has four starts to his name. In his last out, he finished 3rd in the G1 Preakness Stakes. The Preakness was the longest race Creative Minister has raced in to date at 1 3/16 miles. Good news for Creative Minister is that the two horses who finished above him in the Preakness will not be partaking in the Belmont. Prior to that race he had won twice and finished second in his three other starts.
Brian Hernadez Jr has ridden Creative Minister in every one his four career starts.
Mo Donegal
Owner: Donegal Racing
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Career Statistics: (6) 3-0-2
2022 Statistics: (3) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics:(2) 1-0-1
We last saw Mo Donegal in the G1 Kentucky Debry where he ran 5th. He was gaining down the stretch but just seemed to have kicked to late and run out of room. That was the only race in his career that he finished outside the money. It was also the longest race of his career. Before finishing 5th in the Derby he won the G2 Woodbine Memorial. In that race he beat fellow entrant Skippylongstocking, and Preakness winner Early Voting. Besides that race he won another G2 Stakes which was the Remsen Stakes.
Irad Ortiz Jr has ridden Mo Donegal in four of his past five starts.
Golden Glider
Owner: Gary Barber, Penny and Manfred Conrad
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Career Statistics: (6) 2-1-0
2022 Statistics: (5) 1-1-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 0-1-0
Golden Glider enters this race off a distant 2nd place finish to We the People in the G3 Peter Pan. In his career he entered four graded stakes races and that last finish was his best result. His lone two career wins were in an Allowance Optional Claimer and a Maiden Special Weight. I wont waste too much time on this horse because given the field, I just don’t see him competing given his speed.
Dylan Davis has ridden Golden Glider once before which was his last start.
Barber Road
Owner: WSS Racing, LLC
Trainer: John Alexander Cruz
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Career Statistics: (9) 2-4-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-0
Belmont Statistics:(0) 0-0-0
Barber Road has not visited the winners circle in the 2022 calendar year. We last saw him in the G1 Kentucky Derby where he ran 6th. Despite his worst finish of the year, he ran his best race in terms of speed figures. Prior to that race he finished 2nd in the G1 Arkansas Derby and 3rd in the G2 Rebel Stakes. He’s been increasing in distance throughout his entire career and seemed to struggle with the jump from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles in his last out.
Joel Rosario has never ridden Barber Road before.
Picks:
WIN: (6) MO DONEGAL
EXACTA BOX: (3) NEST, (5) CREATIVE MINISER, (6) MO DONEGAL
For me, I don’t see the value in betting We the People. He’s off an impressive win in the Peter Pan but he won’t have those same favorable track conditions as he did in the Belmont. Rich Strike has also lost his value. I talked about the two narratives before and I’m going with the ladder. I don’t think he can replicate his performance in the Kentucky Derby and am fading him here in the Belmont.
Mo Donegal has the speed to compete and the additional distance should aid him. Creative Minister had an impressive race in the Preakness without the two horses who beat him, he should do well. Nest, the lone filly, is extremely impressive and a front runner. She has the pedigree and has handled distance well in the past.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I’m rolling with 4 plays to kick off the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rays SERIES(-120) @ Twins
This is my first series play of the season, but I have talked for weeks about how I’ll be looking to play against the Twins here in the month of June. While the Twins hold a 33-26 record, consider who they played in the month of May: Orioles, Athletics(2 series), Guardians, Royals(2 series), and Tigers(2 series). That is an unbelievably easy schedule, but things will get equally as tough here in the month of June. The Twins just lost 2 out of 3 to the Yankees in rather loud fashion and will host one of the best pitching staffs in the league this weekend. Tonight’s pitching matchup is fairly even, although I have my doubts that Twins SP Devin Smeltzer will be able to sustain a high level of success. The Rays will undoubtably have the pitching advantage in Sunday’s game(Springs vs rookie Cole Sands), and the Twins will likely have to start a minor league caliber arm in tomorrow’s game. When you factor in significant bullpen advantage for Tampa as well as the Rays’ tendency to swing the bats better on the road, I feel like this is a good spot and price to go against the Twins.
*MLB(1u): Athletics TT UNDER 3.5(-125) @ Guardians–6:10 PM CT
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has been absolutely dominant this season, having allowed just 34 hits in 58 innings pitched. His ERA sits at 3.10 for the simple reason that he has allowed quite a few home runs, but he trails only Justin Verlander with an amazing 0.86 WHIP. The Athletics are the worst lineup in the league and shouldn’t be considered a threat against any quality right-handed pitcher. Additionally, they have hit just 35 long balls on the year(2nd fewest in the league), meaning they likely won’t be able to take advantage of McKenzie’s weak spot. While the Guardians have used the back-end of their ‘pen each of the past 2 days, this is a deep unit that still leads the league in bullpen WHIP. McKenzie has also gone at least 7 innings in each of his past 4 starts, which should mean the Guardians won’t have to rely on some of their weaker middle-relief arms. You could make a case for playing this at 2.5, so getting a full extra run at a fairly reasonable price was too good for me to pass up.
*MLB(1u): Padres -1.5(-115) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT
Padres SP Joe Musgrove is having a Cy Young caliber start to this 2022 campaign. Through 10 starts, the righty holds a brilliant 1.64 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, and since joining the Padres last season, Musgrove has seen little resistance when pitching at Petco Park. The Rockies might swing the bats well at home, but this is one of the worst road offenses in the league against right-handed pitching(27th in OPS). While the Rockies did fare well against Giants SP Logan Webb yesterday, their historical road numbers are too stark for me to overlook. The Padres also have a top 10 bullpen in the league and will be fresh coming off an off day. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl seems to have adjusted to the conditions of Coors Field, but through 6 road starts this year, the righty holds an ugly 1.39 WHIP. The Padres offense was carried by Manny Machado for much of this season but erupted for 25 runs in their 3 game series against the Mets earlier this week. They managed to jump all over quality righties Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt, so getting after Kuhl seems like an attainable goal. The Rockies bullpen received a lot of usage in their series against the Giants but aren’t a good unit even when they’re fresh(28th in bullpen WHIP). I love playing against the Rockies on the road, and with Musgrove’s dominance combined with the Padres’ current form offensively, I deem this a good spot to do so.
*MLB(0.69u): Phillies -1.5(+145) vs Diamondbacks–6:05 PM CT
The Phillies are the hottest team in baseball, coming into tonight’s game having won their last 7. They’ll face a really good arm in Zack Gallen tonight, but Gallen has shown signs of regression in his last few starts. He allowed 6 runs to a measly Royals lineup a few weeks ago, and he’s allowed 17 baserunners across his last 2 starts(11.2 IP). If the Phillies can beat Corbin Burnes the way they did yesterday, they can certainly get after Gallen in this one. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson has had his ups and downs this year, but he’s fared better in his home ballpark than I would’ve expected(3.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). The Diamondbacks scored 12 runs in the last 2 games of their series against the Reds, but much of that came against the atrocious Reds bullpen and lefty Mike Minor, neither of which really correlate to this matchup. When you’re hot, you’re hot; winning is contagious. I couldn’t justify laying the juice on the Phillies ML, but I will absolutely sprinkle on the run line at this price.
