NFL Preseason Football is a half step away, and there is no better way then to start preparing the season than looking at some data. Now, it is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, quarterback changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, new coordinators, and maybe the most important factors in motivation. Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future.
Since the 2019 NFL football season, there have been a lot of coaching changes, and less preseason games due to Covid, so many of the coaches this year do not have many data points. My philosophy for betting games with coaches that have limited data is to stay away in general with a potential exception in the first week where new coaches in general sometimes want to start their season out on a positive note with a win. This is not a hard rule, because some coaches do not care, but it is best to try to avoid fading them unless they are playing against one of the bulls that we will discuss.
Getting back to the most important aspect for handicapping the NFL preseason, it is great to have the data on these coaches. It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do. I personally have to have at least 8 games played, or 2 seasons of pre-season football to make a determination. As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have 0 significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be a lot looser with their play calling, and very liberal on which athletes that they will put into play the game. Coaches that want to win in the preseason will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during OTAs. They also will in mainly stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason. Other coaches that do not care much at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs. These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason, or plays that were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years.
On a sadder note, we lost two great preseason coaches to bet on last year in Mike Zimmer, who was 20-9 in preseason football as well as Jon Gruden who was 39-19. May they rest in peace. Here is some of the outliers below that could make us some money.
Some of the most winning coaches who will be paying my bills:
Sean McDermott at 10-5 at 67% – I must break you!
John Harbaugh at 40-12 at 77% – I don’t care if I injury my whole team!
Frank Reich at 7-4 at 64% – I will out-nerd you!
Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:
Mike Vrabel at 4-7 at 36% – Lose now to win later!
Dennis Allen at 4-8 at 33% – I came back to coaching just to lose in the preseason!
Zac Taylor at 2-5 at 29% – The art of losing!
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. Now I know that we only have three preseason games since last year, and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. Due to the change, I had to recompile our data to show the coaching record for week one, the middle weeks, and the final week. I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021. Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 13-1 in game one but only 8-5 at the final week. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Also, Bill Belichick is 66% at 15-7 on game one, and only 9-12 in the final week. On the flip side, Sean McDermott s only 2-2 in game one, but 4-1 in game the final week. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2022. The preseason schedule remains only three games. Even though it is a big change from week four, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game, and in their last game. There also isn’t as many fade coaches as we have had in the past being that Andy Reid decided to go 3-0 last year in the preseason moving his average up to 48%, as well as the high number of coaching changes. I think that looking at the coaching records during the individual weeks might be here on out more important than looking at the coaching records in total.
In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish. If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
AFC South
2021 Records
Tennessee 12-5/ Indianapolis 9-8/ Houston 4-13/ Jacksonville 3-14
Indianapolis – Carson Wentz Sucks. Matt Ryan should be an upgrade, but he hasn’t exactly been sharp the last few years, but his weapons also have been underwhelming or suspended. Jonathan Taylor should get his behind an offensive line with two pro bowlers, but I also worry about Left Tackle Matt Pryor taking over for a departed Eric Fisher. At receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is the top option, with a bunch of unproven talent behind him. On defense I think they made upgrades across the board with the signings of Stephen Gilmore to be a shut down corner and snagging pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue from Vegas. I think Gus Bradley taking over at DC with his aggressive style should factor well in Indy. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Heavily Juiced over -190
Tennessee – Getting the #1 Seed is special now in the NFL as it gets you the only Bye in the playoffs. Not as special is losing that first game at home after the Bye like the Titans. I also think they were the team that overachieved the most in 2021 winning 12 games with only a +65 Point differential. They were 17th in YPG and 12th YPG Allowed on defense. Not what you think of as a #1 Seed. That being said this is a veteran team, and if they have a healthy Derek Henry for a full season those offensive numbers will go up. Trading AJ Brown takes away the top option at receiver and they are counting on draft pick Treylon Burks to fill that role. They also signed Robert Woods who should be decent as a #2 if healthy. Ryan Tannenhill is probably playing for his future this year so I do expect him to thrive. The Titans resigned Harold Landry who took off in 2021, but didn’t add any key pieces and I would expect a similar year to 2021 on defense. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Under -125
Houston – Houston is a very young team, and their season will depend on whether or not Davis Mills is going to become a quality NFL QB in 2022. If he doesn’t, they’ll be near the top of the board next season where the QB talent will be much greater in the draft than this year. Hint: He Won’t take a next step. This team was dead last on offense and unless they develop some sort of running game to improve on their 83.6 YPG in 2021 they will be in deep trouble again. Hint #2: They Won’t be able to run the ball, but #15 overall draft pick Kenyon Green could be a future pro-bowler at Guard. On defense they took Singletary #3 overall at CB and he could be a shut down type player, but the rest of the roster looks rough. Hint #3: The defense will suck again in 2022, and this team is ready to really start the rebuild with all the extra draft picks from Watson really having an effect next year allowing them to take a QB and another top tier talent in the draft. Vegas Win Projection: 4.5 Juiced Under to -130
Jacksonville – The Urban Meyer saga being complete, will Trevor Lawrence take a step forward in 2022? Doug Pederson should be able to coax the best out of him as he did early for Carson Wentz. Lots of pundits are high on the Jags to really make a leap this year, I am not one of them. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram simply aren’t the answer to improving an offense that only averaged 305+ YPG in 2021. Travis Etienne will hopefully be healthy and we will see what he brings to the table. The O-Line was a concern last year and will be once again in 2022. Even with Lawrence’s mobility he was sacked 32 times. Without improvement up front this offense will still struggle. On defense the team should improve with #1 overall pick Travon Walker, and they went defense on 5 of 7 draft picks. Darious Williams, signed from the Rams will start at corner and is an immediate upgrade there. I think the D keeps Jacksonville in more games than last year, but when your point differential on the season is over 200 to the bad side, it takes a lot of improvement to start picking up more wins. I think they are one more draft away from really having a shot at more wins and contending. Vegas Win Projection: 6 Juiced over at -125
2022 Projections
Indianapolis 11-6
Tennessee 10-7
Houston 4-13
Jacksonville 4-13
AFC South Action:
Indianapolis – Lean Over. The Juice is what is keeping me off this play, that and cross division games vs the AFC West. If this gets to 10 at Plus Money I might make a play.
Tennessee – No Plays. Their variable schedule is brutal with the Packers, Bengals and Bills. Too much variance here.
Houston – Lean Under. I think they are gonna go full tank mode.
Jacksonville – 1 Unit on Jacksonville Under 6 Wins. They get Houston twice, Jets, Lions and NFC East, but also the AFC West. Could they find a way to get to 6? Maybe. But I don’t see 7 wins here so I’ll play the under and I think at worst I push.
Coming off a 1-0-1, +1u Saturday, my MLB record now sits at 110-101-4, +5.09u. I’m rolling with 3 plays to cap off the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays/write-ups, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros/Mariners UNDER 7(-105)–3:10 PM CT
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-105) vs Giants–3:10 PM CT
*MLB(0.75u): Guardians ML(+135) @ White Sox–1:10 PM CT
I’ll be traveling to Mexico in the morning for a (much needed) vacation. I’ll have no plays tomorrow, but I’ll be back on Tuesday with plays and write-ups for you. Let’s finish the weekend strong!
Profitable day in MLB, frustrating ending to a UFC card that we had some fucking great bets in, and a stellar finish to our 4-day-parlay. I know it sounds braggadocios but I’m telling you, when I give out a parlay over a longer period of time, it’s a good idea to take it. Those are the ones we usually do really well with.
In other news, some more thoughts about the survey:
I appreciate that you all enjoy my write-ups and feel that the length and style is done well.
To the 25% who think the cursing is too much, you do realize you’re receiving emails from a gambler about gambling your own money, right? This stuff ain’t exactly for choir boys and gals. Just saying. But since some of you don’t love it, I’ll tone it down a notch… sometimes. =)
I’m going to try my best to filter picks better and provide a smaller card if I have any level of substantial uncertainty.
Onto Sunday! Not many picks, but we like the ones we’re playing:
MLB Picks:
Blue Jays (-155), to win 1 unit
Well the Jays are absolutely dominating the Sox and today Boston’s pitching won’t help. I’m a little concerned about regression but I’m more confident that Boston has given up on this season. The Blue Jays are lethal when they have an elite pitcher on the mound and Stripling (3.03 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 74 innings) should be able to contain the home team’s lineup while the Jays’ bats stay hot.
Guardians/White Sox under 7.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
If there’s any series that’s due negative regression in runs, it’s today’s final battle between the Guardians and White Sox. Bieber has come into his own, allowing 3 or less runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Dylan Cease is clearly Chicago’s ace and he’s been even better, permitting 1 run or less in his last 7 starts on the mound. Love the under today, two great pitchers who can command and prevent two pedestrian offenses from their streaks.
Yankees/Dodgers ML Parlay: 1 unit to win 1.3 units
I’m going to choose N. Cortes and C. Kershaw over the Baltimore and SF pitchers today 10 times out of 10, especially with the power and momentum of the favorites. NYY dropped yesterday’s contest; makes me like this even more.
WNBA Picks:
Dream +8 (-115 at Bovada, best I’ve found), to win 1.5 units
We’ve played on the Atlanta Dream before in these spots and we’ll do it again today. I think Seattle will win today’s game but they’ve been very underwhelming. The Dream still have a shot at making the playoffs, while the Storm are comfortably in 2nd in their conference and it’s very unlikely they won’t earn a bid. Atlanta has won in tougher spots, notably at Las Vegas and Phoenix, and the Storm are riding a routine of only beating up on inferior programs. Seattle’s last 5 wins: Fever, Wings, Sparks, Fever, Fever. ZZzzZzZz. The Dream can keep this close throughout.
All plays are on a 1-5 unit scale, with 3-5 unit plays being very rare. If you have any questions, please DM me or email me any time before 7:00pm. Thanks team!
Sunday card has the ESPN Total of the Month and a big 5* Afternoon Blowout along with a CFL Platinum Supreme Total. WNBA Comp play below.
The WNBA Comp Play is on Atlanta plus the 7 points at 6:00 eastern. The Dream have covered 3 straight on the road pulling upsets in 2 of those games. They hammered Seattle by 14 the last time they played them. Seattle has lost 2 straight on the road and we note that home teams off a road favored loss that lost the prior game are 4-21 to the spread vs a team also off a loss. Look for Atlanta to keep this one close. For the WNBA Comp play. Take the points with Atlanta. On Sunday a Powerful MLB Card is up and led by the ESPN MLB Total of the Month, we also have a Canadian Football Platinum Supreme Total and MORE. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and end the week big. For the WNBA Comp play. Go with the Atlanta Dream. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Coming off a 1-1, -0.87u night, my record on the season sits at 109-101-3, +4.07u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back from a tough best bet loser last night. To receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Pirates F5 ML(+100) vs Marlins–6:05 PM CT
People don’t seem realize how bad the Marlins offense is against lefties. Apparently, the oddsmakers don’t either. Away from home this year, the Marlins rank 28th in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching; this is simply not their role. Pirates SP Jose Quintana is going to be vulnerable in his tougher matchups, but this is not one of them. Quintana has pitched to a 3.02 ERA at PNC Park this year, and a FIP at 3.32 is impressive as well. I like how Quintana matches up with this Jazz Chisholm-less Marlins offense, a unit that has struggled mightily overall over the last few weeks.
Marlins SP Max Meyer has received a lot of hype here recently, and rightfully so; the 2020 1st round pick has great potential. With that said, this is just his 2nd big league start. Considering Meyer threw less than 170 innings in the minor leagues prior to his call up, I am simply not convinced he is ready for this level yet. He gave up 5 ER in his debut against the Phillies, and while this might be an easier matchup, this Pirates offense has improved over the course of the summer.
To price Meyer this highly without any sustained success at the big league level is a reach. I’ll play against that notion early in this game.
*MLB(1u): Braves -1.5(-105) vs Angels–6:20 PM CT
I have faded the Angels in 3 of their last 4 games, and not one of those called for a sweat. Without Mike Trout, this lineup is among the worst in the league. Don’t take my word for it; since June 1st, the Angels rank 28th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Braves SP Kyle Wright has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA here in 2022; he has limited home-runs while simultaneously producing twice as many ground-balls as fly-balls. I think he mows down the Angels tonight.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval might hold a 3.00 ERA, but one glance at his 1.43 WHIP is enough to tell you that is not sustainable. In addition to allowing a hit per inning on the year, Sandoval is walking 4.5 per 9 innings away from home. We saw his luck start to run out last weekend against the Dodgers, and I think that carries over into tonight facing another very good lineup. The Braves rank 3rd in the league in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching and are a lineup I’m going to want my money on throughout the rest of the season.
The Braves will have all of their important bullpen arms available tonight by nature of winning by 7 last night. This unit ranks 5th in the league in bullpen WHIP and contains the type of arms I can trust in the later innings. While the Angels bullpen hasn’t been disastrous, they’ve still been far too inconsistent this summer for my liking.
The 2022 MLB Run line Game of the Year from a 21-0 system headlines a powerful MLB Card along with 2 Top Soccer plays one is a Platinum Supreme the Other the total of the Month. We also have a late night WNBA Play. MLB Comp play below.
On Saturday the MLB Comp Play is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern The Mets fit a 13-0 2nd game back from the break system for teams off a home favored loss. The Mets are also 14-0 as a home favorite off a home loss since last September. They have Bassitt going and he will look for revenge here tonight after getting shellacked in SD for 7 runs in 3 innings, He has a 3.12 home Era. He takes on B. Snell who is 0-2 with a 5.87 road Era. The Padres have lost 6 of 9 here, 5 of 6 on Saturdays and 10 of 13 on the road. The Mets have won 4 straight vs a lefty and 5 of 6 on Saturdays. Look for the Mets to get game two. On Saturday the 2022 MLB Run line Game of the Year headlines along with 2 TOP Soccer plays and WNBA. Jump on at goldencontender@aol.com or DM on Facebook or Twitter. For the MLB Comp play. Make it the Mets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Hi Everyone! It’s rare that I do a free pick article in the UFC, but why not try and be like the UFC GOAT and get some Ws this afternoon in London? The UFC kicks off around noon EST so get these plays in soon if you like them!
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
Aspinall within distance (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Aspinall to score a takedown (-120), to win 1 unit
Wagers on Aspinall makes too much sense. Big Tom has now won 8 straight pro fights and he’s finished SEVEN of those in the 1st round. A takedown, submission, and striking artist, there’s not much left out in Aspinall’s game. He’s a versatile fighter with a 1″ height advantage and he’s in front of a home crowd, poised to make a big leap in his heavyweight history. All Aspinall for me.
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Pimblett by TKO/KO or Submission (-135), to win 2 units
I believe the hype. Pimblett is loud and brash and has a big personality like McGregor, but he can back it up. Firstly, do you know how ballsy and badass it is to be that stoic and confident before a fight? His energy resembles Connor in his heyday and that’s not easy to do. Mental games alone should give Paddy the edge, but the reality is, his repertoire is just more dynamic than Leavitt. He has a reach advantage, height advantage, and experience advantage for a little cherry on top. Paddy keeps his legend going today, within distance.
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McCann/Goldy – Will Fight Go Distance: No (+172), to win 1.72 units
Did you see McCann’s spinning elbow in her last matchup? I know it’s all part of the same dynamic – Paddy and McCann and now (of course) Dave Portnoy is wearing the wig and jumping on the bandwagon (that gets annoying, don’t you think?), but it’s all for good reason. McCann is an excellent fighter with a rock solid chin and aggressive nature. Questionable decision losses taint her overall record, but it feels like 24k Hannah Goldy is being served up on a 24k platter for McCann; Goldy just hasn’t had the opponents or depth of experience to survive in a fight against “Meatball” McCann, and I think it’s very possible McCann ends her night early.
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Chris Curtis (-107), to win 1 unit
Hermansson is a solid fighter but he’s been on a downward trajectory for some time, showing his weakness in two recent losses against Sean Strickland and Martin Vettori. Curtis seems to only be getting better, with really impressive victories against Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira highlighting his ascent. Worth a bet on his momentum alone.
As one of my more astute subscribers said to me recently – the WNBA giveth and the WNBA taketh away. We’ll land back on our feet but now I see why the woman’s pro league is so damn frustrating. I’m avoiding it today, although a sneaky wager on the Liberty at home against Chicago in a ROUGH traveling spot may not be a bad look.. An “okay” day in MLB and a win in CFL Friday – let’s gain more Ws today.
So far I have 13 responses from the survey and I really appreciate the feedback! Keep it coming. In general, most of you could care less or you love the snarky language, but more importantly most of you think I could scale back on my picks, especially when I’m on a cold streak. Totally agree with that and it’s something my wife has told me multiple times. I’m aggressive by nature and it’s something to be aware of in the wide-world of betting.
Anywho, thank you for your support and onto Saturday! Exciting card! PS – that 4 day parlay is still going strong!
MLB Picks:
Blue Jays/Sox under 9.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Well we talked about regression on my recent podcast with Sherwood, who was fantastic (not shocking), and this is a sterling example. Those bats have to be tired after that historic scoring barrage in last night’s game, and Alek Manoah would love to get a revenge victory and blank the Sox at home after his extra-inning loss to Boston back in late June. Regression is coming.
Rockies ML (+225), to win 1.125 units (in other words, put 0.5 units on it)
This is priced wrong. Woodruff is a beast but with how pedestrian the Milwaukee offense has been this year and with how suddenly explosive the Colorado offense CAN be, this is a great spot to play on a vastly inflated line on the home team. It’s obviously likely that the
Brewers win this game, but why not take a shot on Jose Urena, who just keeps getting lucky (his 4.87 xERA tells us as much), and he might only need a little luck today with a lineup that can bring it.
Rockies Giants/Dodgers under 8 (-120), to win 1 unit
I hate that this is juiced so much but the under is the play. Urias should be able to easily keep the Giants in check, while Alex Wood (3.51 xERA, 3.13 xFIP, 0.80 HR/9 innings) has a better arsenal than he gets credit for.
UFC Picks (this starts around noon, FYI!)
Paddy the Baddy Parlay: Aspinall, McCann, Pemblett – 1 unit to win 1.84 units
Aspinall (-141), to win 1 unit
Aspinall within distance (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Aspinall to score a takedown (-120), to win 1 unit
Like our parlay above, adding more plays on Aspinall makes too much sense. Big Tom has now won 8 straight pro fights and he’s finished SEVEN of those in the 1st round. A takedown, submission, and striking artist, there’s not much left out in Aspinall’s game. He’s a versatile fighter with a 1″ height advantage and he’s in front of a home crowd, poised to make a big leap in his heavyweight history. All Aspinall for me,.
Pimblett by TKO/KO or Submission (-135), to win 2 units
I believe the hype. Pimblett is loud and brash and has a big personality like McGregor, but he can back it up. Firstly, do you know how ballsy and badass it is to be that stoic and confident before a fight? His energy resembles Connor in his hayday and that’s not easy to do. Mental games alone should give Paddy the edge, but the reality is, his repertoire is just more dynamic than Leavitt. He has a reach advantage, height advantage, and experience advantage to beat. Paddy keeps his legend going today, within distance.
McCann/Goldy – Will Fight Go Distance: No (+172), to win 1.72 units
Did you see McCann’s spinning elbow in her last matchup? I know it’s all part of the same dynamic – Paddy and McCann and now (of course) Dave Portnoy is wearing the wig and jumping on the bandwagon (that gets annoying, don’t you think?), but it’s all for good reason. McCann is an excellent fighter with a rock solid chin and aggressive nature. Questionable decision losses taint her overall record. It feels like 24k Hannah Goldy is being served up on a platter for McCann; Goldy just hasn’t had the opponents or depth of experience to survive in a fight against “Meatball” McCann, and I think it’s very possible McCann ends her night early.
Chris Curtis (-107), to win 1 unit
Hermansson is a solid fighter but he’s been on a downward trajectory for some time, showing his weakness in two recent losses against Sean Strickland and Martin Vettori. Curtis seems to only be getting better, with really impressive victories against Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira highlighting his ascent. Worth a bet on his momentum alone.
Posted April 29, 2022, reposted July 23rd 2022 As discussed from last year’s article, football is a game of inches, and by being off just one, could be the difference between a win and a loss in a league with limited games. The shape of the football itself creates it’s own sort of randomness on circumstances such as situation like field position during punts and how the ball spins during field goals. There is also a certain amount of randomness of “when” the points are scored that pertains to a team’s final win record. Let’s face it, there is a good amount of luck that happens within the football season the best teams do not always win against the worst teams. We can just go back to January 9th of this year to find an easy example of that for when the Jaguars beat the Colts.
Many of us NFL football analysts and sports bettors want to have good methods for prediction for next year’s football season in order to be more accurate. Wins and losses do not tell the whole story and they are also rarely a good indicator by itself for a team’s future success. If we find some scientific methods that will correlate well using a team’s past performances to their success in the future, it will help us become not only more knowledgeable, but it could also help us become more profitable. The method that we will be discussing today is the 2021 Pythagorean win total calculation as a method to help predict the 2022 football season results.
Is it possible for an NFL team to score more points than they give up and have a losing record? How about score less points than they allow and have a winning record? The answer to that is that it is very possible, and it happens every year. In 2019 the Houston Texas scored 378 total points, yet gave up 399 to win 10 games. In that same year, the Chargers scored 337 points while only giving up 345 (almost 50/50) and only won only 5 games.
Sometimes teams score many of their points during blowouts, and as luck will have it, those same teams might lose their close games. Due to these discrepancies, we need to formulate the data to find out what some of these teams were expected to do based on points scored compared to their actual win/loss results. Using a function that takes a look at the total points scored as a data point with the total points allowed is, at many times, a better indicator of a team’s future success compared to their actual record. This is why we can use a Pythagorean win total compilation to compare what was expected to happen based on points scored for all of the NFL teams, to what actually did happen in how these teams finished out their year. This way we can have a better idea on what to expect for next season. The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac states, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Since then, the Pythagorean wins theorem has continued to be statistically significant.
The Pythagorean theorem is a^2+b^2=c^2. It basically figures out the distance between two points of a right triangle (c), or for what we are interested in, the expected value between the relationship of sides. Please see the figure. Think of points scored as (a), and points allowed as (b) where (c) is a function of the (a and b) linear equation and we just want to know what the relationship is between a^2/c^2 (c^2 is a^2 + b^2)to get a percentage of wins multiplied by the total games. Going by the diagram, if it is a tall and thin triangle, the team scored a lot more points compared to what they have given up, and if it is a short and long triangle, the team has given up many more points compared to what they actually have scored.
I know what you are thinking. Why can’t we just use the points scored over total points as a basis for predicting the expected outcomes? The answer to that simply is that the data would be wrong. For example, if a team scores 75% of the total points and only allowed 25% of the total points throughout the year, would we only expect that team to win just 75% of their games? Heck no. That is like averaging 30 points per game on offense and only allowing 10 points per game on defense. Even the 16-0 2007 patriots who scored 68.3% of the points averaging 36.8 on offense and giving up 17.1 on defense won many more than 12 games. The 2007 Patriots’ Pythagorean win total certainly didn’t equate to winning every game, but was at 13.76, which is much higher than the 12 and a much more relatable number to their fantastic season.
But wait, there is more! This Pythagorean equation does have it’s faults if adjustments are not made to it. This equation tends to bunch all of the teams more towards the middle when actual outcomes may deviate further away from the mean. Statistician Daryl Morey found this in football among other sports and was able to develop a more statically significant exponent of 2.37 (rather than 2) as a constant for better accuracy while utilizing this equation. Without getting too far into the weeds, we must make adjustments correlated to the actual variances that happened over the years pertaining to each sport, and for this column, football itself. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders takes this concept even farther by stating that each team’s exponent should be different as a function of their points scored. According to Schatz, the formula for each team’s exponent that works best in the NFL is 1.5 * log ((PF+PA)/G). I myself find that using the constant exponent of 2.37 doesn’t deviate significantly enough from Morey’s exponent model with respect to the actual randomness in the sport of football itself. Much of this randomness comes from inconsistent officiating, injuries, and pure luck itself.
One thing that I found that we can somewhat account for is turnovers. Every year there are teams that have something called turnover luck. Weather if the luck is good or bad, turnovers affect the scores and the results of each game. For example, some teams could have had a 3 point field goal and instead they fumble the ball away while some defenses are put on the back of their heels when teams turn the ball over in their side of the field. The Cowboys and Colts had the best turnover ratio of +14 while the Jaguars had the worst at -20. Big shocker right? Now it is well known that turnovers are worth close to about 4 points to each team respectively and the old school way of thinking is that turnovers are mostly random, but I tend to disagree with that notion. If you look at the recent histories of each team, turnovers happen to be somewhat predictable. For example, before Tom Brady became a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Jameis Winston used to turnover the ball quite often and it would show up significantly negative year over year in Tampa Bay’s turnover margin. Jacksonville is another team that you have been able to pencil in the negatives for a while now. On the flip side of the coin, there are teams that take care of the ball more often on a consistence basis while them ore other teams might have great ball-hocking defenses that tend to force more turnovers than the others. The Green Bay Packers fit that bill and the Kansas City Chiefs have been on the high positive side for turnovers for at least the last six or seven years for the most part. Due to this, I have adjusted turnovers to be about half of what they are worth to the number from 4 to 2 points per turnover and I award or punish each team only 1 point on offense and 1 point on defense (rather than 2 and 2) with respect to their 2021 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers give you a better idea of what each team’s expected wins should have been based on a cleaner season. In essence, a negative turnover ratio helps those sloppier teams with better expected wins as they punish the cleaner teams that had a high positive turnover margin with lower expected wins due to the luck factor that I have applied. Even though some teams tend to take care of the ball more doesn’t mean that there isn’t some luck to the outliers and visa versa. Please see our chart below for our actual wins vs our Pythagorean expected win totals.
Going by this diagram we can make informed judgements and educated decisions on the actual strength of these teams with respect to not only how well they can score against their opponents but also how well that they can defend. As you can see from the difference column between the actual results from the first 17 game schedule ever in the NFL with the Pythagorean (or expected) results that we can actually see how teams have either over-achieved, or under-achieved in the 2021 season. Here are the five outliers on each side:
Over-achievers:
Green Bay Packers: The Packers had only 9.79 expected wins compared to their 13 actual wins last year. A -3.21 difference. The Packers had good turnover luck and played in a very weak division. Their toughest games ended up being at home. Keep in mind that the Packers had two big outliers in their data. Those two data points were when they benched their players on game 17 vs the Lions, and that awful first game of the season when they were blown out by the Saints. Also, remember that garbage time, and the fact that Aaron Rogers is a clutch player probably makes some argument for higher expected wins. I personally think that around 11 expected wins is more fair for this team than 9.79.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders only had 7.34 expected wins compared to their 10 actual wins last year. A -2.66 difference. Now this number would be even bigger if the Raiders didn’t get respect for -9 turnovers. The Raiders won a lot of games that they shouldn’t have and I think it was all Derek Carr and coach Rich Bisaccia. Just amazing what they did with all of the trials and tribulations from last year, but that doesn’t make up for the fact that this really was a below .500 team.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers had expected wins of 6.91 compared to their 9.5 adjusted actual wins last year. A -2.59 difference. The Steelers also won a lot of games that they shouldn’t have, and they got to capitalize on very injured Ravens, and Browns teams. Keep in mind that the Steeler’s 2021 schedule ended up being easier than people thought coming into the preseason.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had expected wins of 5.16 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A -1.84 difference. The Falcons were actually +4 in turnovers believe it or not, and they had some good wins vs the Saints and Dolphins. This team had a medium schedule and I was somewhat surprised they won 7 games while only going 1-3 against the NFC East.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans had expected wins of 10.33 compared to their 12 actual wins last year. A -1.67 difference. The Titans did hit an injury bug but it was at the right time after they somehow beat a ton of great teams the first half of the schedule and then eased into the easy part afterwards. They caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and capitalized. losing to the Jets and the Texans was somewhat telling to me that they were not the best team in the playoffs deserving of that top seed. Now I do think they were a good team, just not great.
Under-achievers:
New England Patriots: The Pats had expected wins of 12.12 compared to their 10 actual wins last year. A +2.12 difference. The Patriots blew out a lot of the bad teams and just couldn’t beat the very good teams minus the wind bowl in Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills had expected wins of 12.92 compared to their 11 actual wins last year. A +1.92 difference. Five of the Bills six losses were by seven points or less. That Jacksonville one was a pure stinker as well.
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks had expected wins of 8.9 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A +1.90 difference. Russel Wilson was injured and Geno Smith proved that he isn’t even a backup QB in the NFL. This team had a lot of injuries but really stepped it up at the end and also blew out some bad teams. Keep in mind that the data has been compromised with Russell Wilson leaving the team.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos had expected wins of 8.84 compared to their 7 actual wins last year. A +1.84 difference. Philadelphia had lots of injury woes last year. They went 3-5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and the tie game with Cincinnati also hurt their total wins.
Detroit Lions: The Lions had expected wins of 5.24 compared to 3.5 adjusted actual wins with the tie. A +1.74 difference. Detroit wasn’t quite as bad as they looked, and they played some teams very tough behind their hard nosed coach in Dan Campbell.
In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved. Remember to take this information for what it’s worth. When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.
Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success of NFL teams going into their 2022 seasons and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results. The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis for next season and beyond. Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev. Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.
Ref 1: Football Outsiders: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-13-dvoa-ratings
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. Now I know that we only have three preseason games since last year, and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. Due to the change, I had to recompile our data to show the coaching record for week one, the middle weeks, and the final week. I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021. Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 13-1 in game one but only 8-5 at the final week. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Also, Bill Belichick is 66% at 15-7 on game one, and only 9-12 in the final week. On the flip side, Sean McDermott s only 2-2 in game one, but 4-1 in game the final week. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.
factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes along with the anti-clutch performances of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.
