The Rockies (25-32) travel down the coast on Friday to kickoff a weekend series in San Diego against the Padres (35-22). Joe Musgrove takes the hill for the Padres and is opposed by Chad Kuhl of the Rockies.
Let’s start with Musgrove. So far in 2022 he has been one of the most dominant arms in the game. He is 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA. He is 10 for 10 in quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any game. The xFIP sits at 3.26 so there is some negative regression on the horizon, but that is still elite. The K rate sits just under a batter an inning and the K/BB ratio sits at 4.57. No matter how you measure it he’s a force. Against the Rockies in 2021 he had 3 starts all which came in Petco. He went 18.1 IP allowing 1 ER in those 3 games and only 10 hits while striking out 23 Rockies hitters. In 25 games on the road this year the Rockies have scored a minuscule 77 runs good for 3.08 per game. They are also 27th in OPS on the road with a .636. Razzball’s Stream-o-nator values this start at +$60.0 for Musgrove, which is one of the higher values I have seen on there.
On the other side of things Chad Kuhl has overachieved for the Rockies boasting a 3.17 ERA. There is a lot of regression coming for Chad yet. He is allowing just .83 HR/9 this year even pitching at Coors. His last 3 seasons with Pittsburgh he was just shy of 1.5 HR/9. His K rate is sitting at only 6.83 K/9, his strand rate is above league average and the BABIP against is only sitting at .270. Only 3 of his 10 starts have come against teams with winning records and he gave up 5+ Earned runs in 2 of those. All these things lead me to believe there are worse days on the horizon. The Friars are not loading up on offense themselves especially at home where they are scoring only 3.76 runs per game themselves at Petco, but I don’t think they’ll need more than 4.
Lay the Run Line -1.5, -110 on the Friars. Maybe even the Alt line -2.5 if you’re feeling frisky.
Sometimes when my degenerate ass wants to bet on something different, I bet on foreign basketball. It ain’t easy to do, but pro basketball has a lot of the same patterns and tendencies, no matter where it’s played. There’s a big game today in the Germany Bundesliga league and shit, I’m putting a bet on it.
Bayern Munich vs. Alba Berlin under 159.5, 1 unit
This is a big game between 2 of the top teams in this pro-league and the last two times they faced, there was a lot of defense and hard-fought shots. Each team also got a win against the other earlier in the season, so this is the rubber match. 160 tends to be the common total in this league – I think it flies under. LET’S GO!
Time for a free pick for the fantastic followers of TheOddsBreakers and FarleyBets! Check out our free video pick for the NBA Finals Game 4 below, and please subscribe to my YouTube Channel! HEY – It’s Friday! Let’s goooo!
Chris is 74-55 (57.3%) for +14 units in the NBA playoffs – check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
Well shit, somehow we still went 2-1 in MLB last night (let’s go Yankees) and we’re 6-3 for +3.15 units the last 4 days in MLB. I almost don’t wanna say that shit because if there’s ever been a possibility I could jinx myself, it’s in the crazy ass majors. Onto our picks!
NBA Finals, Game 4:
1Q under 54.5, 1.5 units*
Under 214.5, 2 units
* Added the 1Q under, too. This game just has a different feel. Every contest in the NBA Finals is important, duh, but the Warriors need to come out with ruthless aggression and prevent the onslaught of offense that’s always possible from Boston. I doubt either offense gets in a rhythm that early.
The pace was ridiculous in game three and there’s just no way, IMO, that it can keep up. Game four should be extremely contentious and physical, especially after Draymond’s exit and how horrendous the Warriors protected the rim. As usual, they’ll correct some of those wrongs and this game will probably be a lot closer, with one asterisk. If Curry is substantially injured*, as I noted on Twitter, this series is absolutely over. As even as these two teams are, Curry is so integral for Golden State’s offensive success and they just won’t be able to produce the same results without a Steph Curry that’s at least 90%. Because of his injury and due to our expectation that pace and offensive production will decrease, this feels like a sure-fire over. I have it at 201.
MLB Picks:
D-Backs First 5 ML (-110), to win 1
Zac Gallen’s numbers speak for themselves, with a whip of 0.96 and maintaining a 2.40 ERA in over 50 innings pitched. The Philadelphia bats have been hot but they’re due for a letdown here, and Gibson looks like he’s starting to lose command. Good value on a much better pitcher.
Brewers -1.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Milwaukee is in a real funk at home, so in my mind they’re fortunate to get the hell out of dodge and head to DC against a team that’s about as trustworthy as a Clinton trusted with an intern. Ashby is underrated and certainly capable; Fedde not so much.
Rangers/White Sox over 9 (-105), to win 1 unit
The White Sox were feeling fat and sassy after they took a huge lead against LAD yesterday, only to sacrifice that lead late. That’s Dodgers baseball for ya. Now the Rangers and Sox send out two undependable pitchers against two good offenses. Points!
Padres -2.5 (+135), to win 1.35 units
This is a bad matchup for a road-team Colorado offense that struggles against the Padres’ most trusted pitcher. San Diego is feeling themselves lately – alt line feels right here.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
It’s Thirsty Thursday and we have a night cap with a night cap to end the night! We are on a 9-4 run over our last 13 MLB plays and hope to add to it this afternoon (Dodgers) and tonight!! Get my Premium Packages HERE, including monthly all access, the rest of MLB season and College Football Early Bird Special or any of our handicappers here at the Odds Breakers!
The Boston Red Sox are in LA trying to complete a 4-game sweep against the Angels. Right-hander Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the BoSox tonight. Teams are only hitting just .185 as he has posted a 1.01 WHIP, 3.38 ERA and 3.52 FIP on the road this season. In his past 5 starts, Pivetta owns a 1.54 ERA, 29 strikeouts while teams are only hitting .140 and is averaging just 2.1 BB/9. Last years MVP, righty Shohei Ohtani will oppose him. At home this season, Ohtani owns a 32.6% K rate, 1.02 WHIP, 2.77 xFIP but has struggled giving up the deep ball (1.66 HR/9). Recently, he has really been struggling as he has earned a 5.14 ERA, 6 homeruns, 27% K rate, 1.33 WHIP and a 5.57 FIP while teams own a .373 wOBA, which is 15th worst in MLB over the past month. Boston’s offense has scored 175 runs and owns a .364 wOBA, 138 wRC+ (all 1st in last 30 days) while LAA is bottom 3rd in MLB in the same stats during the past month. The Bullpen edge also goes to the Redsox who have a top 10 WHIP and FIP in the past month while LAA has struggled to get outs. The Red Sox are scoring 4.97 runs per game on road this season while LAA has been averaging just 2.92 runs per game while giving up over 6 runs per game during their 14-game losing streak. Part of the reason why…. Ohtani is hitting .200 and Trout is hitting just .143 over the last 8 games…If I was going to play a prop in this game, I would recommend Rafael Devers. He is hitting .350 with a .435 wOBA over the past week and lefties are slugging .477 off Ohtani this season. Last year’s MVP tends to get better as the game goes on so I am expecting the Red Sox to get to Ohtani early and often and add to his 6.04 FIP 1st time through the order. I bet this this morning at +113 and the market is telling us where on the right side here. Take BOS -103
It’s Kiev O’Neil’s 400th episode and we have a great show for you today! Sig from @Wagertalk is back to talk the 2022 Belmont Stakes! First, Kiev gets into his NFC West preview show and discusses how these teams are looking coming into the 2022 season. Next, Kiev talks UFC 275 with Jiri Prochazka vs Light Heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira. We give out some leans and some FREE PLAYS and discuss every fight in the main card. Finally, Sig from Wagertalk comes on to discuss the Belmont Stakes! Which horses are properly priced? Which horses are we tossing off of our card? Who are the longshots? Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreeakers.
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsBreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!
With the Western Conference Finals all wrapped up, we only have one series remaining. I’ll break down Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals along with some game, team, and player props.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers (Series: Tied 2-2)
Side Line Movement
In the first two games of this series the Rangers were home dogs, a trend that will continue tonight. They closed at +110 in Game 1 and +115 in Game 2. We now move to Game 5 where the home team has won every game of this series and despite that, Vegas still has the Lightning as the favorite in tonight’s matchup. Currently the Rangers are hovering around +110/+115 on the moneyline.
Total Line Movement
The total for Game 5 is the same as it has been in every game of this series, 5.5. Just like those games, the under remains juiced. After the over hit in Game 1 of this series, the under has hit in every game since.
Trends
Under is 8-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 overall
Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog
Game 5 Breakdown
We head back to MSG for Game 5 of Eastern Conference Finals with the series all tied up. The Lightning were able to win both games at home to even up the series after New York took the first two games. It’s been a trend this post season, particularity in the Eastern Conference, that the home team has been dominant.
New York has been great at home this post season going 8-1. They have a +18 goal differential at MSG compared their -9 goal differential on the road. At home the Rangers average 35.56 shots for per game while only averaging 28.89 shots for away.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have as big of a disparity between their home and away splits as New York does. The Lightning have gone 4-4 on the road this post season with a -4 goal differential. Despite their below average goal differential, their Power Play and Penalty Kill have been much better on the road. Tampa does average less shots for away from home but also allows less shots against.
NYR Injuries: F. Chytil (QUES- Upper Body), R. Strome (QUES- Lower Body)
TBL Injuries: B. Point (OUT- Leg), C. Perry (QUES- Undisclosed)
Game Prop Breakdown
Both Teams to Score at Least 2 Goals (-130/+100)
This prop has hit in all three of the four games this series. Game 4 was the lone game where this prop didn’t hit as the Rangers only scored one goal.
1st Period Tie no Bet (TB Lightning -130/ NY Rangers +100)
Game 1- Tie (1-1), Game 2- NYR (2-1), Game 3- Tie (0-0), Game 4- TBL (1-0)
In the Rangers series against the Hurricanes, they had led after every first period at home. Throughout the entire playoffs, the Rangers have only been losing after the first period once at home.
Team Prop Breakdown
NY Rangers team total over 2.5 (-110)
The Rangers have recorded over 2.5 goals in both their games at home against the Lightning this series. They’ve actually gone over this number in every home game in the playoffs. At home, the Rangers are averaging 4.2 goals for in the playoffs. The Lightning are averaging 3.0 goals against on the road this post season. Vasilevskiy has also been worse on the road these playoffs with a .906 SV% and 3.03 GAA.
TB Lightning team total over 2.5 (-140)
The Lightning have recorded under 2.5 goals in both their games on the road against the Rangers this series. In their previous series against the Panthers they only recorded over 2.5 goals on the road in one of their two games. On the road this post season, the Lightning averaging 2.5 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Rangers are averaging 2.22 goals against per game. Shesterkin has also been much better at home in the playoffs with a .948 SV% and 2.04 GAA.
Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Chris Kreider 0.5 points (-130/+105)
Kreider has recorded over 0.5 points in each of his last six games including the four games against Tampa Bay. In his last five games at home, he has tallied over 0.5 points in four of those games. He also recorded at least a point in all three regular season matchups against the Lightning.
Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+125/-160)
Killorn has yet to record a point since Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. He’s currently on a nine game streak where he has yet to tally at least one point in any of those games. Before this cold streak Killorn had four points in the first six games of the playoffs.
Artemi Panarin 0.5 points (-175/+140)
Panarin has recorded over 0.5 points in four of his last five games. At home, he has recorded at least one point in three of the last five games. In the lone regular season game he played against the Lightning he had two points.
Adam Fox 2.5 Shots on Goal (+150/-195)
Adam Fox has recorded under 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five games. In Game 4 against Tampa Bay he failed to tally even a single shot on goal. In his last five games at home he only went over this number twice.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-175/+140)
Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in each of his past five games. On the road, Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his past five games. In the three regular season matchups against the Rangers, he went over that number in two of those games.
Frank Vatrano 1.5 Shots on Goal (-180/+140)
Vatrano has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his past five games. However, at home he has only gone over this number in two of the past five games.
Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy 29.5 Saves (+100/-125)
Vasilevskiy has recorded under 29.5 saves in three of the four games against the Rangers this series. In the two away games, he has 25 and 28 saves. When he only had 25 saves in Game 2, he only faced 28 shots against. At home, the Rangers have averaged 35.56 shots for per game this post season. On the road in the playoffs, the Lightning average 31.75 shots against per game.
Igor Shesterkin 32.5 Saves (-110/-115)
Shesterkin has recorded over 32.2 saves in two of the four games against the Lightning this series. In the two games he went under that number, he only faced 30 and 31 shots against. On the road this post season, the Lightning average 31.50 shots for per game. The Rangers do give up more shots against at home than away this post season averaging 42.44.
Picks
[0.5u] NY Rangers team total over 2.5 goals (-110) – DraftKings
[0.25u] 1st Period Tie no Bet – NY Rangers (+100) – DraftKings
[0.25u] Chris Kreider over 0.5 points (-130) – DraftKings
Leans
Adam Fox Plus/Minus Over 0.5 (+135) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
After entering the week +17.31u over the previous 4 weeks, 3 straight losing days is not how we wanted to start things off. I’m rolling with 1 play for today looking to right the ship. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT UNDER 2.5(+100) @ Giants–2:45 PM CT
I’ve harped on the Rockies home/road offensive splits for awhile now, but those splits are most stark against right-handed pitching. While the Rockies have the 3rd best OPS vs righties at home, they hold the 3rd lowest OPS vs righties(.580) on the road this season and were 29th in that category last year. Today, they’ll face Giants ace SP Logan Webb, a guy who held a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in Oracle Park last year. Those numbers haven’t exactly followed suit into this season, but Webb has still yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark through 30 innings. While a strong wind blowing out to RF is usually present in this ballpark, the wind will not be at the hitters’ aid today. The Giants bullpen has been a disappointment this season, but I still do trust their back-end pieces against this Rockies lineup, and I expect Webb to go deep in this game to begin with. I’m up +5.58u playing against the Rockies on the road this year, and I want to continue fading this offense against good right-handed pitching when they don’t have the luxury of hitting in Coors Field. Rockies TT UNDER is my lone play for today.
Thursday card has the NHL Playoff Total of the Month with a 100% Lead system, We also have an opening game Canadian Football league Play and an MLB Platinum Supreme. We swept the board for a 2nd straight night on Hump day. MLB Como play below.
The MLB Comp Play Play is on Milwaukee at 2:10 eastern. The Brewers fit a Perfect system dating to 2004 that plays on home favorites of 140 or more off 5 straight home favored losses if they scored less than 5 runs in their last game and their opponent scored 5 or more runs and the total today is less than 10. These teams win by an average 5-1 score. The Brewers are having trouble scoring. However today they face Z. Eflin for the Phis and Eflin has allowed 20 runs in 19 road innings and lost 9-1 in his last trip here. The Brewers have their stopper on the mound in C. Burnes and he has won 4 of his last 5 starts and Philly has never faced him before. Burnes is 3-1 in his career at home in June starts while Eflin has lost his last 5 road June starts. The Brewers are 5-0 of late on Thursdays. Look for that Losing steak to end today. Make it Milwaukee. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
The NFC East: The NFC East scraped themselves up from the worst division in football in 2020 to somewhat formattable. The Cowboys are loaded with talent, yet they can’t seem to put it all together. The Eagles within striking distance and just need a few more pieces. The Washington Commanders finally have a name, yet still no quarterback and the Giants are a complete mess. The good news for this division is that they massively lucked out in getting to play the two worst divisions in football in the NFC North and the AFC South. As a matter of fact, the Giants and Eagles are graded to have the easiest schedules in all of football when it comes to their opponents Vegas forecasted win totals. In saying that, let’s see how these teams fare.
1. Dallas Cowboys –
Vegas win total: 10
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.64
Schedule: Medium Easy – At Large vs Tampa Bay, vs Cincinnati, @ LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: OLB Randy Gregory, WR Cedrick Wilson, RT La’el Collins, G Connor Williams, K Greg Zuerlein, SS Keanu Neal, WR Amari Cooper
Key additions: DE Donte Fowler Jr, WR James Washington
Whom they drafted: T Tyler Smith, Edge Sam Williams, WR Jalen Tolbert, TE Jake Ferguson
Summary: Dallas certainly surprised me last year winning 12 games on a hard schedule. Their Pythagorean win total also backed it up at 11.64 wins. Now the question that you have to ask yourself is, what happens to teams when they overpay for players? They lose talent and that is what is happening this offseason in Dallas. The good news is that the Cowboys were loaded last year and could afford to shed some weight. I really wasn’t all keen on the Cowboys draft, but they proved me wrong last year with Micah Parsons and how he turned out. Let’s face it, Mike McCarthy isn’t a good coach but last year, their talent superseded that deficiency. I honestly have no fear for the regular season here, and I think that the boys should win the NFC East, but it is always the playoffs that this team tends to screw up and I don’t have playoff faith in Dak until he can prove me wrong.
My Number: 12.32
Action: Lean over
Dallas Power Rating: 5.25
2. Philadelphia Eagles –
Vegas win total: 9 juiced to the over
2021 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.92
Schedule: Easy – At Large vs @ Arizona, vs Pittsburgh, vs New Orleans
Key additions: WR AJ Brown, OLB Haason Reddick, CB James Bradberry, OLB Kyzie White, WR Zach Pascal
Whom they drafted: DL Jordan Davis, C Cam Jurgens, LB Nakobe Dean
Summary: Fly Eagles fly might be the dumbest saying in the NFL, but this team certainly has set themselves up for success this year. The AJ Brown trade worked pretty well for the Eagles as they now have a possession receiver to go with their speed guy in Devonta Smith. Keep in mind though that he was expensive. I also like how the Eagles filled some gaps this year improving their linebacking core with some big moves in free agency with Haason Reddick, and Kyzie White. I also really like how this team drafted. Georgia Bulldog Jordan Davis ran 4.78 forty weighing over 340 lbs. I don’t want to block that guy. Do you? If LB Nakobe Dean is healthy, this could be a fantastic defense. We can’t ignore how easy this schedule is setting up for the Eagles as well getting to play Pittsburgh, and New Orleans at least at home. I would also rather play Arizona than San Francisco. I am pretty optimistic on this team this year and I think that at least 10 wins is very possible.
My Number: 11.46
Action – Over 9 wins
Philadelphia Power rating: 2.75
3. Washington – Vegas Win total is 8
2021 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.22
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Atlanta, @ San Francisco, vs Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: G Brandon Scherff, DT Tim Settle, S Landon Collins, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, G Ereck Flowers, ILB John Bostic
Key additions: QB Carson Wentz, G Andrew Norwell, G Trai Turner, DE Efe Obada
Key draft picks: WR Jahan Dotson, DT Phidarian Mathis, RB Brian Robinson, QB Sam Howell
Summary: Not a ton of action here in the offseason besides the big Wentz trade. Washington changed their name from The Washington Football Team (WTF) to the Washington Commanders. This team pretty much swapped guards with Jacksonville. WTF. The Commanders have some unsigned players that mostly doubtful to come back. WTF. I have to assume that Wentz is starting but I really question this move. I do not think that Wentz is that much of an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke, and I also do not think that he is a clutch quarterback. WTF. Bad move if you ask me. Drafting Sam Howell wasn’t a bad thing at the spot that they grabbed him and I think he has a shot just like the rest. Last year, we knew that Washington was a little overrated coming into 2021 and their missing the playoffs with only 7 wins proved that, but I will at least say that they were pretty injured, and had a hell of a schedule. I can see this team getting to eight wins with this easy schedule but I also see a pretty low floor. Maybe the schedule helps them sneak into the playoffs.
My number: 8.61
Power Rating: -2
Action – Small lean over
4. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 7 juiced to the under -120
2021 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.53
Schedule: Easy: At large games vs Carolina, vs Baltimore @ Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Joe Judge, DT Austin Johnson, CB Keion Crossen, CB James Bradberry, DE Lorenzo Carter, S Jabrill Peppers, LT Nate Solder, TE Kyle Rudolph, G Billy Price, RB Devontae Booker
Key additions: Coach Brian Daboll, G Mark Glowinski, QB Tyrod Taylor, G Joe Feliciano, DT Justin Ellis
Key Draft Picks: Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux, OT Evan Neal, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, G Joshua Ezeudu and a bunch of dudes
Summary: For a team going through massive changes, I must say that I liked what the Giants did in their first offseason. New coach Brian Daboll had a fantastic offense in Buffalo. Can he translate to head coach? Remains to be seen, but at least this team didn’t rush to a quarterback this year, and now they can make a decision on Daniel Jones. To be quite honest, I don’t think Daniel Jones is Daboll’s guy, and getting Tyrod Taylor probably hints on that, but I also think that this team would serve themselves best to not win a ton of games and get one of those two big quarterbacks in CJ Stroud or Bryce Young in next years draft. I really like the Giants draft this year, but my only worry is that they win too many games with that easy schedule.
