We have a massive show for you today! Time captioned below for your convenience. The one and only Brad Powers from BradPowersSports.com is back to preview the 2022 season in college football! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps some UFC 275 and gets a little into UFC Vegas 57 with a play and a few leans coming up this weekend. Next, Brad Powers comes on and the guys get right into some college football general questions for 2022. Then, Brad and Kiev give a small preview with their quick thoughts on every single division 1 conference with some leans and some FREE PLAYS that they have already made, and with some plays that they will be making in the near future. Should you have any questions, please reach out to us @TheOddsBreakers on twitter!
Intro: 0 – 2:59
UFC: 3:00 – 20:30
Brad Powers College Football general talk and capping methods: 20:31 – 44:00
College Football conference previews in alphabetical order: 44:01 – 1:39:55
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On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I breakdown the Stanley Cup Finals and give our Game 1 Picks!
Topics:
Stanley Cup Finals Breakdown
Game 1 Preview and Picks
Conny Smythe Predictions
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Congrats to Rory McIlroy for defending his title at the RBC Canadian Open last week. This was the first time in his career he has accomplished this feat. It was one of the best Sunday’s of the year with Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Rory batting it out at St. George’s. With that win, Rory moves to 7th all-time in PGA Tour wins by a player outside the United States with 21. Who did Rory pass? None other than Greg Norman who’s been in the news a lot lately but, I’ll touch more on him later. Justin Rose was also on 57 watch heading into the final three holes before bogeying two of the last three to shoot at 60. If he had shot -2 on those holes, he would have recorded the lowest round in PGA Tour history.
The 122nd edition of the U.S. Open takes place this week at The Country Club of Brookline, just outside of Boston. This will be the first time since 1988 that the U.S. Open will be held at this course. The last time we saw The Country Club of Brookline was back in 1999 when it hosted the Ryder Cup. The U.S. Amateur was also hosted here in 2013 where Matt Fitzpatrick won but, has undergone several renovations since.
In the 2021 U.S. Open, we saw Jon Rahm win his first Major title at Torrey Pines as the 10-1 favorite. Oddly enough, Torrey Pines was where Rahm won his first PGA Tour title back in 2017. Dating back to 2009, 10 of the last 13 U.S. Open winners had never captured a Major-championship prior.
As most know there is a new competitor to the PGA Tour, the LIV Golf Invitational Series backed by Greg Norman. It is a controversial new tour funded by Saudi Arabia in hopes of white washing their imagine. They have thrown some ridiculous amounts of money around to attract some major names in the sport of golf. Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Phil Mickelson headline the tour. While the PGA has rescinded their Tour cards, they are not the governing body of the U.S. Open, the USGA is. The USGA may later follow suit with the PGA Tour and ban them but, for this week those players are allowed to compete. It should be very interesting to see the interactions not only with the spectators but with other golfers as well. If one of these players does end up winning these week, the post round interview will be must watch TV.
Before I breakdown this tournament I just wanted to wish all of the dads out there a Happy Fathers Day, especially mine.
Tournament Information:
Dates: June 16th, 2022 – June 19th, 2022
Location: Brookline, Massachusetts, United States
Course: The Country Club of Brookline
Course Type: Classical/ Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,254 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Poa annua .110″
Fairways: Poa/ Creeping Bentgrass .300″
Rough: Blue grass/ Rye grass/ Poa annua 3″
Purse: $12,500,000 / $2,250,000 Winner
FedEx Cup Points: 600
Bunkers: 82
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 4,388 sq. ft.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Willie Campbell (1895), Rees Jones (1988)
The United States Open Championship, also known as the US Open, it the annual open national championship of golf in the United States. It’s the third of four major championships.
The Country Club at Brookline has hosted four Major-championships it’s history, including this one. Originally founded as a horse racing track in 1882, The Country Club is one of the oldest country clubs in the Unites States. Willie Campbell designed the first six holes and as more land was acquired, Alex Campbell was able to complete the 18 hole layout in 1899. In 1927, another nine holes were added called the Primrose Course designed by William Flynn. For this U.S. Open, the USGA has comprised a layout of all 27 holes titled the Championship Course. The Country Club was also one of the five charter clubs that founded the USGA in 1894.
The first U.S. Open was played in 1895 on a nine-hole course at the Newport Country Club in Newport, RI. It was single day 36-hole competition. The first American born player to win the U.S. Open was John J. McDermott in 1911.
This will be the first time since 1988 that the U.S. Open will be held at this course. In that 1988 U.S. Open Curtis Strange defeated Nick Faldo in an 18-hole playoff to win his first consecutive U.S. Open titles.
The last time The Country Club of Brookline hosted a professional event was back in 1999 when it hosted the Ryder Cup. The United States would make a historic comeback to win that Ryder Cup 14 1/2 – 13 1/2 after being down 10-6 entering Sunday singles.
The U.S. Amateur was also hosted here in 2013 where Matt Fitzpatrick won but, has undergone several renovations since. Besides Fitzpatrick, that U.S. Amateur field also included Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Talor Gooch, Cameron Young, and Aaron Wise.
Until 2017, the U.S. Open retained a full 18-hole playoff on the following day. However, since 2018, the USGA adopted a two-hole aggregate playoff format. If the playoff is still tied after two-holes, the format will switch to sudden death.
Winners of the U.S. Open will not only take home the prize money but will also receive a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, are invited to play in the three other majors for the next five years, and are exempt from qualifying for the U.S. Open itself for 10 years.
Most tournament wins: Willie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Jack Nicklaus (4)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Country Club of Brookline is a Par 70 that plays 7,254 yards. It features, four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and just two Par 5’s.
Of the two Par 5’s, Hole #8 is the only one that’s reachable in two. It’s the shortest of the two but, will challenge players on their approach shots with a false front that will reject shots on the front half of the green. Hole #14, is the other Par 5 that will require accuracy off the tee. If players are in bad position on their approach shot, it’ll force them to hit a blind shot into a multi-tiered green.
The Par 3’s will not be an easy challenge this week as the yardages vary quite drastically. Hole #11 is the shortest of the four playing at just 131 yards. It’s a downhill shot that will make players think twice about the yardage given the threats around the green. Four bunkers surround the green in the front with penal rough along the back edge.
While this course is short when compared to other major-championships, it will no doubt challenge golfers. From, blind approach shots to small undulating greens, The Country Club makes for a great venue.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OUT
PAR
4
3
4
4
4
3
4
5
4
35
YARDAGE
488
215
499
493
310
192
375
558
427
3556
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
OUT
PAR
4
3
4
4
5
4
3
4
4
35
YARDAGE
499
131
473
450
619
510
202
373
451
3708
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Top 5 in Rankings; W. Zalatoris, R. Henley, C. Smith, S. Burns, C. Morikawa
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Top 5 in Rankings; M. Kuchar, R. Sabbatini, T. Gooch, C. Kirk, S. Im
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
Scrambling
Top 5 in Rankings; M. Kuchar, S. Lowry, S. Im, M. Fitzpatrick, C. Bezuidenhout
Bogey Avoidance
Top 5 in Rankings; J. Thomas, S. Im, S. Lowry, S. Powers, M. Kuchar
Greens in Regulation %
Top 5 in Rankings; J. Rahm, S. Scheffler, R. Knox, C. Conners, S. Burns
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards
Top 5 in Rankings; R. Armour, J. Thomas, R. Sabbatini, C. Young, S. Lowry
Par 3 Scoring
Top 5 in Rankings; L. Donald, T. Hoge, T. Gooch, A. Wise, X. Schauffele
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
As with every Major-championship, we have a loaded field. 49 of the top 50 players based off the OWGR will tee it up in Brookline, Massachusetts this week. Paul Casey is the lone player inside the top 50 to miss the U.S. Open due to a back injury. Tiger Woods will skip the U.S. Open in order to get his body fully ready for The Open next month.
In terms of odds, the favorites have dominated the U.S. Open in the past few years. Since 2015, six of the eight winners have had odds of 25-1 or less. Those two outliers were Gary Woodland in 2019 (80-1) and Brooks Koepka in 2017 (45-1).
Rory McIlroy (+1100), is at the top of the board this week and fresh off a victory at the RBC Canadian Open last week. McIlory finished inside the top 10 in both previous major tournaments this season (Masters & PGA Championship). In his last three U.S. Open’s, Rory has finished inside the top 10 in each of them (T9, T8, T7). His last U.S. Open victory was back in 2011 where he won it at Congressional Country Club.
Jon Rahm (+1200), won the U.S. Open last year at Torrey Pines and will look to defend his title this week. The last player to win back to back U.S. Open’s was Brooks Koepka in 2017-18. Rahm has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts, including a win at the Mexico Open. In the two major-championships this season Rahm finished T27 at the Masters and T48 at the PGA Championship.
Justin Thomas (+1200), has one major to his name this year with the PGA Championship. Thomas was in the running last week at the RBC Canadian Open but, bogeyed the last two holes to finish solo third. JT has been playing some great golf this year with eight top-10’s in his last 13 starts. In the last two U.S. Opens, Thomas finished T8 and T19.
Scottie Scheffler (+1400), is having a career year and has already captured one major this season. After his win at the Masters, he struggled in the next major missing the cut at the PGA Championship. Despite that performance, he has finished inside the top-20 in seven of his eight major-championship starts as a professional. In the U.S. Open last year at Torrey Pines, he finished T7.
If you’re looking for players who have performed well in the Major-championships this season, here’s six players who have finished inside the top-15 in the first two majors of the year; Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Will Zalatoris.
Other previous U.S. Open winners in the field; Bryson DeChambeau (’20), Gary Woodland (’19), Brooks Koepka (’18,’17), Dustin Johnson (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Martin Kaymer (’14), Justin Rose (’13), Webb Simpson (’12), and Jim Furyk (’03).
Notable Withdraws: Paul Casey (back), Martin Kaymer
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Jon Rahm (-6) – Torrey Pines
Price: 10-1
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) – Winged Foot
Price:25-1
2019: Gary Woodland (-13) – Pebble Beach
Price: 80-1
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1) – Shinnecock Hills
Price: 25-1
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Erin Hills
Price: 50-1
2016: Dustin Johnson (-4) – Oakmont
Price: 16-1
Picks (Outright):
Collin Morikawa (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Collin Morikawa has two major-championships to his name winning the PGA Championship in 2020 and The Open in 2021. Last year, Morikawa finished T4 at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Morikawa hasn’t been in the best of form as of late missing the cut at the Memorial, finishing T40 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and then T55 at the PGA Championship. At Muirfield Village he really struggled around the green losing 1.96 strokes. Another issue for his has been his putting which he has lost strokes in each of his last four tournaments on the green.
Despite all of that, he still ranks inside the top-28 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG:T2G. He’s one of the best iron players on the Tour which is crucial this week as these greens are very difficult to hit. Even though his short game was bad in his last start, he has gained strokes around the green in three of his last five tournaments. If he can putt well, he should compete like he did at the Genesis where he gained 1.74 strokes putting.
Sam Burns (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Sam Burns is having the best season of his career. In the 2021-22 season, Burns has won three PGA Tour events including the Sanderson Farms Championship, the Valspar Championship, and most recently the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Currently he ranks inside the top-18 in SG: APP, SG: Putting, SG: T2G, and total strokes gained. The major flaw, if you even want to call it that, has been his short game where he ranks 57th in SG: ATG. However, he has gained strokes in that category in three of his last four starts.
In the first major-championship of the year, Burns missed the cut at Augusta National. He lost strokes in approach which has been his path to victory this season. In the PGA Championship, he played much better gaining 2.35 total strokes over the field to finish T20. We know the key to victory at The Country Club will be players second shot so if Burns’ irons are on, he should have a great week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
So ummm, I may have a Matthew Fitzpatrick fetish. I have played him in the past two weeks and will be doing so again. He’s been on this weird trend lately where he has done very well in back to back tournaments but misses the cut in his third. Luckily for us, if that trend holds, he should do very well this week.
Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top-25 in every major category; SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ATG, SG: Putting, and SG: T2G. His success this season has all come down to one category, putting. In every tournament that he’s missed the cut in, he’s lost strokes on the green.
He also has some course knowledge as he won the 2013 US Amateur here. He has yet to win on Tour this season but has finished inside the top-10 in 7 of his 14 starts. It feels like he’s been due for a win this entire year. After backing him for a third straight week, I hope he can bring us another outright winner.
Shane Lowry (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Shane Lowry has made the cut in each of his last 11 starts. During that stretch, he has yet to capture a win with his best finish coming at The Honda Classic (2nd). In those 11 events, he has 8 top-25 finishes which includes 4 top-10 finishes. He’s struggled at U.S. Opens in the past with his best two finishes coming back in 2015 and 2016.
Currently, Lowry ranks inside the top-24 in SG: APP, SG: Putting, and SG: T2G. In terms of strokes gained categories, he struggles with his short game ranking 74th in SG: ATG. However, he has gained strokes in that category in four of his last five events. He’s been trending upwards and given his finishes at the first two major-championships, he should have a shot this week.
Joaquin Niemann (+4000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Niemann won his second PGA Tour event earlier this season at The Genesis Invitational. He put on an absolute ball striking clinic gaining 2.02 strokes on approach. Following that victory, Niemann missed the cut at The Honda Classic but since then has yet to finish T35 or worse. In the two major-championships this season he finished T22 at Augusta National and T23 at the PGA Championship. He’s played in three U.S. Opens before but his best two finishes were in 2020 and 2021 where he placed T23 and T31.
Currently, he ranks inside the top-24 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ATG, and SG: T2G. What he struggles is with his putting. In the beginning of the season he lost strokes on the green in three of his first four events. If we look at a more recent sample size, he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last five starts. If he continues that upward trend on the green and his ball striking is on, Niemann should be in good position come Sunday.
Sungjae Im (+4100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units
Sungjae Im won the Shriners Children’s Open earlier this season and has been playing some pretty good golf since. In his eighteen starts this season, he has made the cut sixteen times and finished inside the top-25 in twelve of those events. Im has only played in one major-championship this season as he had to withdraw from the PGA Championship due to a positive COVID-19 test. In the Masters Tournament he finished T8, gaining strokes in every major category. Sungaje has played in the last two U.S. Open’s finishing T22 and T35.
He ranks inside the top-12 in SG: OTT, SG: ATG, and SG: T2G. His two areas of concern are his approach play and putting. Despite that, Im has gained strokes on approach in each of his last four tournaments and has gained strokes on the green in two of those events. His approach play drives his success so if he can find those greens, he should do well. Even if he can’t his short game should allow him to compete.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.44 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Xander Schauffele (-115) – FanDuel
Risk 1.15 to win 1.00 Units
When it comes to The Country Club, this course should suit him perfectly. He’s an elite ball striker that has the short game to match. Currently, he ranks inside the top-38 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ATG, and SG: T2G. His putting can be iffy sometimes but in he’s gained strokes on the green in three of his last four starts.
In his five U.S. Open’s Xander has never finished worse than T7. Schauffele has been dialed in as of late finishing inside the top-20 in each of his last three starts. He has played this course before so he will have some additional knowledge that the rest of the field doesn’t have.
Corey Conners (+220) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 1.10 Units
Conners last played at The Country Club in 2013, where he finished 2nd in the U.S. Amateur. He’s been playing some great golf as of late finishing T21 or better in five of his last six starts on Tour. The only outlying performance during that stretch was when he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. In his 18 events this season on Tour, he has finished inside the top-25 in ten of those tournaments.
He ranks inside the top-26 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: T2G. His short game is a concern but in terms of strokes gained around the green, it has been miniscule in the past three events. Conners approach play has been extremely solid as of late and his accuracy off the tee should put him in great position for those second shots.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.65 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Aaron Wise (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Aaron Wise has been trending in the right direction in his past three starts. The last time we saw Wise was at the Memorial where he finished solo 2nd. He played in one major-championship this season where he finished T23rd at the PGA Championship. Wise has competed in the U.S. Open twice before with his best finishing coming last year at Torrey Pines placing T35.
He ranks inside the top-40 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: T2G. Out of those categories, he ranks highest in approach (16th). Wise has gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight tournaments. The major flaw in his game, has been his putting where he ranks 109th in terms of strokes gained. However, Wise has been much better with the flat stick as of late gaining strokes in four of his past five tournaments.
Brian Harman (+165) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
Unlike most of my other placements this week, Harman does struggle with his iron play. He currently ranks 120th strokes gained on approach. After losing strokes in this category in his first five starts this season, he has turned it around and gained strokes on approach in three of his last four events. Outside of approach, he ranks inside the top-66 in SG: OTT, SG: ATG, and SG: Putting. One area of his game that should aid him this week is his accuracy off the tee as the rough is particularly long.
Harman has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments. In those four events, he never finished worse than T35. He did play in one major-championship this year, which was the Masters where he missed the cut. In Harman’s last four U.S. Open appearances, he has never finished worse than T38. His best finish was back in 2017 where he finished T2 at Erin Hills losing to Brooks by four strokes.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the US Open: 5.09 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I endured a tough night to start the week but remain +10.34u over the last 36 days. With a full slate to work with, I’m rolling with 4 plays for tonight looking to bounce back. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins/Phillies F5 UNDER 4.5(-115)–6:05 PM CT
Phillies SP Zach Eflin might have his struggles on the road, but the righty is great in his home ballpark. He held an ERA greater than 2 runs less at home last year and holds a 1.16 ERA/0.77 WHIP at home here in 2022. The Marlins were gifted 6 unearned runs in their weekend series in Houston, which can greatly alter how you evaluate their current form. They were overmatched by Aaron Nola last night and are not an offense I expect anything from when stepping up in competition. On the other side, however, I’m expecting Marlins SP Trevor Rogers to round into form and enjoy a great summer on the mound. Rogers held a sub-3.00 ERA in 25 starts last season but has drawn some tough matchups(ATL 3x, @SD, @COL) early in 2022. Still, Rogers is a power lefty arm that seems to be reeling in his command. The Phillies are on fire over the last 2 weeks, but the offense seems to be coming back down to earth; they have scored just 8 runs over their last 3 games. The Phillies have also failed to figure out left-handed pitching in their home ballpark despite facing them more often than any other team in baseball. I like each of these SP’s in this matchup and think this number should be set at 4. I’d be frightened to play a Phillies Under a week ago, but after seeing them cool off a bit, I like this one to stay under the F5 total.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) vs Brewers–6:10 PM CT
Mets SP Chris Bassitt struggled in each of his 2 West Coast starts in San Diego and Los Angeles, but this is a guy I think will have a great year pitching in Citi Field. He held a 1.06 WHIP in 2021 and has the moxy it takes to succeed in New York. He’ll get a favorable matchup facing off against a Brewers team that is just 2-9 here in the month of June. While the Brewers have crushed vulnerable right-handed pitching, this is another team I have no expectations for when stepping up in competition. Brewers SP Adrian Houser’s sub-4.00 ERA is not sustainable considering he holds an ugly 1.40 WHIP. In addition, Houser has fared considerably worse on the road throughout his career as a Brewer. The Mets offense has been steady all season, likely because they don’t depend too heavily on the home run ball to produce runs. When you account for Houser’s issues with walks, this is exactly the type of arm the Mets have taken advantage of repeatedly this season. I expect a bounce back start from Bassitt and for the Mets to take a lead into the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Padres/Cubs F5 UNDER 5.5(-105)–7:05 PM CT
I don’t think this pitching matchup warrants such a high total to begin with, and when you consider how poor of current form each offense is in, it makes this total even more crazy. I can understand why the oddsmakers don’t like Kyle Hendricks; after 7 really solid seasons from 2014-2020, Hendricks has regressed over the past 2 years. However, it is worth noting that Hendricks was pitching through an injury last month and has taken the last 12 days to rest and regroup. In any case, the Padres offense is just not good against right-handed pitching(26th in OPS vs righties). Over their last 4 games, the Padres have scored just 10 runs despite facing the measly Rockies in 3 of those matchups. I expect Hendricks to look fresh and like his old self in this one. On the other side, Padres SP Sean Manaea has slowly developed into one of the more consistent pitchers across the league. Both his ERA and FIP have settled in the 3.50-3.60 range in the last 2 seasons, and he’s been just as steady on the road as he is at home. This Cubs offense has scored just 6 runs over their last 4 games and have not figured out lefties up to this point in the season; it’s hard for me to see Manaea giving up more than 2 runs in this spot. While there is a slight wind blowing out tonight, I don’t think that is enough to cure what both of these offenses are going through at the moment. I feel good enough about this pitching matchup to play this one under the F5 total.
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(-120) vs Royals–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Logan Webb has not been as dominant as he was in 2021, but holding a sub-2.00 ERA in your home ballpark was going to be hard to repeat. I still believe this is his role, and he’ll get one of the easier matchups you can ask for tonight. While the Royals offense went on a recent little run, they came back down to earth last night after getting shut down by Alex Wood. Webb has yet to allow a home run at Oracle Park this season; if the Giants defense can not make 3 errors in a row like they did in Webb’s last start(still not over it), then I think Webb has a pretty good chance of controlling this game. Royals SP Kris Bubic very well may be the worst SP in the big leagues at the moment. Bubic holds an atrocious 9.13 ERA and 2.03 WHIP, which makes sense considering he’s walking over 6 batters per 9 innings and giving up 2 HR/9. He has also yet to go more than 5 innings in a start, which spells trouble considering the Royals have far and away the worst bullpen in the league right now. One of the big improvements the Giants have made this season is hitting LHP in their home ballpark. While they are still without a few key lefty bats, those don’t figure to be as big of a burden when facing a lefty. I think this is a total mismatch across the board, and it helps to know that the Giants have won 4 straight. Even at -120, I see some value on the Giants RL tonight.
The Circa NFL football contests are back, and bigger than ever! If you are a sports bettor, and are unfamiliar with these betting games, then I urge you to check it out immediately and ask yourself why you are not included in all of the fun. The Circa Millions is an NFL 18 week contest where you pick five games on fixed numbers against the spread and see if you can come out a big winner of $1 million dollars at the end with a guaranteed 6 million dollars in total payouts as well as a nice blue jacket. The Circa survivor is an 18 week 20 pick contest where your team must win every week to take home a massive 6 million dollars this year, or in case of a tie, at least a share of it. I must say that Derek Stevens has really stepped up his game by adding a massive 2 million extra in payouts to make a total of $12,000,000.00 in contest payouts with no rake whatsoever. The Circa NFL contests are literally blowing everything else way. Here are some of the highlighted changes for 2022. For more information, please see Circasports.com or FootballContest.com for details.
Circa Millions now has 6 million dollars in guaranteed payouts! Derek Stevens has stepped it up to pay out the top five instead of the top three places in quarterly prizes. He is also paying out 3.5M to the top 2-100 entries compared last year paying the top 2-50. There is now a second place booby prize for $50,000.00 and $25,000.00 booby prizes that are paid out every quarter. Talk about stepping it up! Here are the highlights below courtesy of Circa Sports.
$1,000 TO ENTER, 3 ENTRIES PER PERSON, MAX.
MAKE 5 NFL PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD EACH WEEK
GET ONE POINT FOR EACH CORRECT SELECTION AND ONE-HALF POINT FOR EACH PUSH
$1 MILLION FIRST PRIZE AND THE COVETED BLUE JACKET
OVER $3.5 MILLION IN CASH PRIZES FOR ENTRIES 2 THROUGH 100 (SEE BELOW)
$300,000 IN “QUARTER” PRIZES AWARDED EVERY 4-5 WEEKS (SEE BELOW)
$100,000 LAST PLACE BOOBY PRIZE
$50,000 FOR 2ND TO LAST PLACE
NO RAKE! ANY EXTRA ENTRY FEES GO INTO THE QUARTER PRIZE POOL
Circa Survivor now has a guaranteed 6 million dollars in total payouts! Derek has also added a nice little twist in adding an additional 1 Million dollars for entries that go 20-0 without using the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals! Here are the highlights below.
$1,000 to enter, 6 entries per person, max.
Up to 20 picks in 2022: NFL Weeks 1 through 18, plus Thanksgiving Day and Christmas
Each NFL team can only be selected once by each entry during the contest
NO RAKE! – The last remaining entry wins the entire survivor pool: $6M guaranteed, plus more if entries exceed $6M
Entries are eliminated from the contest by selecting a team that subsequently loses or ties its NFL game that week and continues until a single entry remains
If more than one entry remains after all 20 legs, the pool is split equally among all remaining entries
If all remaining entries are eliminated during a given leg, the pool is equally split among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
If an entry wins before the 20th leg of the contest they will have the opportunity to continue making selections every week to try to achieve the perfect 20-0 record.
$1 MILLION undefeated bonus prize for entries that go 20-0 without selecting the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals during the contest
Now just because you might not live in Nevada is no reason to not get into all of the fun. You are STILL ABLE to play in these contests by getting a football proxy. A proxy is a service that puts your plays in every single week being that you can’t be in town to do it yourself. This exception allows people all over the world to be able to get in for a chance to prove that they have what it takes to win thousands to millions of dollars. All you need to do is be there to sign up or even have a friend or family member in Las Vegas to do it for you. Should you need a proxy, look no farther than www.FootballContest.com @FootballContest who is the most experienced football proxy in all of Las Vegas! Not only does this great company put in your plays, they also take the responsibility of getting the picks in just in case you forget. These great people will send you a message before the deadline and just in case you do not respond, they will actually make some plays for you that might actually turn out better than the consensus.
Sign ups are happening in these contests RIGHT NOW and with all of the money that Derek Steven’s has put up, there even might be an overlay that will switch the value of your participation in your favor. Please see footballcontest.com for details and may the football gods be with you this year!
Chris recaps game five of the NBA Finals and gives a betting preview of game six – check it out and subscribe to his podcast!
Chris is 76-59 (56%) for +12 units in the NBA playoffs – check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
A 2-0 day in MLB is supplemented by a pedestrian response from Boston and therefore, 3/4 of our bets are losers in Game five. Yay!
Boston averaged 35% from the floor in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters and went 0-12 from beyond the arc in the 1st half. Steph Curry made zero 3 pointers for the first time in 233 games, so that’s all you need to know about the first half over not hitting, too.
ANYWHO, annoying, but we move on! Treading lightly for Game 6 at this juncture but it’s likely we’ll have more plays before Thursday.
NBA Finals, Game 6:
Celtics 1H -2, 1.5 units
Well, here I go playing on Boston again. Are we stupid? Maybe. But Golden State has been consistently flawed on the road when they can close out a series, and you’d think the Celtics would light many a fire under their collective asses before game 6 so they don’t see the same results as Monday. Again, the aggressiveness I expected in game 5 just didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean Boston is done. Ime Udoka has his kids fighting and clawing and playing resiliently all year. I think Boston takes it early by margin – don’t be surprised when that title wave of scoring comes from Dub City in the 3rd, though. If the Celtics start slow and let Golden State take another big early lead, this series is over and they know it.
MLB Picks:
Braves first five -1 (-120), to win 1 unit
Braves/Nationals over 9 (-120), to win 1 unit
This gives us an out if Atlanta is only up by 1 at the end of five innings, but there’s little to no reason for us to believe that the Braves won’t spank the Nationals once again. Fried has been solid all season and newcomer Jackson Tetreault, coming up from the minors, is very unlikely to contain Atlanta’s bats in humid DC. Good luck, Nats.
Orioles/Jays over 9 (-110), to win 2 units
We’ve seen Kikuchi blow his command over and over again and Toronto just doesn’t take him out. The Jays looked realllllly comfortable killin’ the Orioles’ pitches last night – this feels like a sure-fire over. The recipe is intact.
Guardians/Rockies over 10.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Everyone falters at Coors Field and it’ll be a beautiful day in Denver for some big slugs. Bieber is elite, Senzatela is not, and the environment and spot favors both offenses. We like that Colorado has been on the road almost 2 weeks, too – their hitters are considerably more skilled in Denver.
Foreign Basketball Picks: (added another over * because the total dropped – can’t say I’m an ace at predicting German basketball line movement just yet…)
Alba Berlin +5.5, 1 unit and
Alba Berlin vs. Bayern Munich over 158, 1 unit
Alba Berlin vs. Bayern Munich over 155, 1 unit *
This is another rematch between two of the best teams in the German pro league and we got pretty lucky that the last game didn’t go over. Scoring REALLY slowed down in the 4th but live lines had this game projected to finish around 165. We think it gets closer to that total today and Alba Berlin, while they won last time and they’re on the road today, is still the better team. +5.5 is a little too many points.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
The Stanley Cup Finals begin Wednesday between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to win their third consecutive Stanley Cup. If they do succeed, they would be the first team to win three times in a row since the New York Islanders won the Stanley Cup four straight seasons from 1980-83. On the other hand, the Colorado Avalanche return to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2001.
These teams took to different roads to the Stanley Cup. The Lightning have had all two of their three series go at least six games, while the Avalanche have swept two of their three series. Colorado took down Edmonton in four games in Western Conference Finals and will not have played for nine days before Game 1. The Bolts defeated the Rangers in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals and will only have three days rest.
I’ll breakdown both teams and offer my best bets for who I think will take home the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche
Schedule:
Game 1: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 15, 8 PM ET)
Game 2: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 18, 8 PM ET)
Game 3: COL Avalanche @ TB Lightning (June 20, 8 PM ET)
Game 4: COL Avalanche @ TB Lightning (June 22, 8 PM ET)
Game 5*: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 24, 8 PM ET)
Game 6*: COL Avalanche @ TB Lightning (June 26, 8 PM ET)
Game 7*: TB Lightning @ COL Avalanche (June 28, 8 PM ET)
* if necessary
Tampa Bay Lightning
Path to Finals
1st Round: Tampa Bay Lightning def. Toronto Maple Leafs (7 Games: 4-3)
2nd Round: Tampa Bay Lightning def. Florida Panthers (4 Games: 4-0)
3rd Round: Tampa Bay Lightning def. New York Rangers (6 Games: 4-2)
Unlike Colorado, Tampa Bay has had to go through several tough teams to make it to the Finals. In the first round, they took down Toronto in seven after being down 3-2 heading into Game 6. The Maple Leafs threw everything they had at Tampa Bay but ultimately the play of Vasilevskiy was the difference in the last two games of that series. In round two, they took down Florida with ease in the Battle of Florida. Tampa Bay’s playoff experience reigned supreme as they won every game in regulation. Most recently, the Lightning defeated the New York Rangers in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Igor Shesterkin but up a hell of a fight and leads the post season in GSAx.
The Avalanche have had a pretty non-threating run to get to the Stanley Cup Finals. In round 1 they faced a Nashville team without Vezina nominee Juuse Saros. Without Saros the Predators just weren’t able to compete with the David Rittich/ Connor Ingram combination. In the second round, the Blues gave them a tough challenge but after losing Jordan Binnington they were only able to win one additional game. Most recently, in the Western Conference Finals, they faced Mike Smith who had a negative GSAx in every game. Colorado hasn’t had to face a goalie as talented as Vasilevksiy which should make it their most difficult challenge yet.
Statistics:
Category
Playoffs
Goals For per Game
4.64
SOG For per Game
40.7
Goals Against per Game
2.86
SOG Against per Game
28.2
Shooting %
11.4 %
Power Play %
31.1 %
Penalty Kill %
75.7 %
Team Leaders – Points:
Player
Goals
Assists
Points
Shots per Game
Cale Makar
5
17
22
3.64
Nathan MacKinnon
11
7
18
5.86
Gabriel Landeskog
8
9
17
3.00
Team Leaders – Goalies:
Goalie
Games Played
Record
GAA
SV%
GSAx
Darcy Kuemper
10
6-2
2.65
.897%
-4.4
Pavel Francouz
6
6-0
2.86
.906%
+0.0
Projected Line Combinations:
Gabriel Landeskog
Nathan MacKinnon
Valeri Nichushkin
Artturi Lehkonen
Mikko Rantanen
Andre Burakovsky
Alex Newhook
J.T. Compher
Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Andrew Cogliano
Darren Helm
Logan O’Connor
Devon Toews
Cale Makar
Jack Johnson
Josh Manson
Bowen Byram
Erik Johnson
Darcy Kuemper
Pavel Francouz
Injuries: Samuel Girard (sternum), Nazem Kadri (upper body)
Previous Meetings:
October 23, 2021
Colorado Avalanche (4) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3) – SO
COL -110, TBL -110, O/U: 6.0 (-110/ -110)
COL xG: 2.91, TBL xG: 2.82
Vasilevskiy: -0.09 GSAx
Darcy Kuemper: -0.18 GSAx
December 18, 2021: Postponed
February 10, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) @ Colorado Avalanche (3)
TBL -105, COL -115, O/U: 6.0 (-125/ +105)
TBL xG: 3.17, COL xG: 2.91
Vasilevskiy: -0.09 GSAx
Darcy Kuemper: 1.17 GSAx
Series Odds:
Tampa Bay Lightning (+155)
Colorado Avalanche (-180)
Series Preview & Picks
The Avalanche come into the Stanley Cup as heavy favorites to knock off Tampa Bay, a feat that no team has accomplished in the past three post seasons. All season long, Colorado has been the Cup favorite to win and the odds reflect that here.
Tampa Bay on the other hand was an underdog just once this post season and that was in their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. In the Stanley Cup last year, they defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-1 and in the previous season they knocked off the Dallas Stars in 6 games.
For me, I like Colorado in this series just based off their talent but their goaltending is a major concern. Kuemper has had some injury woes in the post season and Francouz has been played well but nothing exceptional. Nazem Kadri status is still up in the air for if he’ll return but Colorado said they remain hopeful. He recorded his most points ever during the regular season and had 14 points in 13 playoff games. Without Kadri, the Avalanche still have a ton of talent as they have four skaters inside the top 10 in scoring this post season. Cale Makar has been exception in these playoffs as leads the team with 22 points. He’s one of the best defensemen the NHL has seen and his ability to generate offense is otherworldly.
The Lightning have the best goaltender in net over the course of the past three seasons in Andrei Vasilevskiy. When the playoffs start he elevates his game that makes him nearly impossible to beat. He did struggle at the start of the playoffs but since Game 6 of the first round, he’s been unbelievable. Bryaden Point has missed the majority of the post season and according to Jon Cooper,, he is “extremely probable” for Game 1. With the addition of Point the Lightning get one of their best players back.
This should be an incredible series that goes the distance. The Lightning struggled a bit out of the gate but have since been dominant. I think they’ll be the toughest challenge Colorado has faced all post season. We saw them take down the Avalanche in both regular season games and based off that, this series goes 6 or 7 games. They key for Tampa Bay this series will be their ability to limit Colorado offensively. They have the lowest goals against per game this post season and will need Andrei Vasilevskiy to continue his strong play. If Colorado is going to win, they’ll need to have some better goaltending whether from whoever is starting. While Francouz is 6-0, he’s been able to rely on the Avalanche’s ability to put the puck in the net. He has a 2.65 GAA with a save percentage below .900. These two teams play very different styles of hockey so it’ll be a great series to watch. If I had to pick a winner, I think Colorado ultimately gets it done. They’ve been bounced from the playoffs in the second round the past few seasons but this looks like a team on a mission that I’m not sure even the back to back Stanley Cup winners can stop.
Series Total – 6 Games (+210) – 0.5 Units
Series Total – 7 Games (+210) – 0.5 Units
BONUS – Conn Smythe Breakdown
The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the most valuable player of his team during the NHL Stanley Cup PLayoffs. Last season Andrei Vasilevskiy won the award with a +26.6 GSAx during the playoffs. In 2020 season, Victor Hedman took home the hardware leading all defenseman in the post season with 22 points in 25 games. The last four seasons have featured a different Conn Smythe winner of different positions.
If you’re looking to place a future bet on the Conn Smythe, you’re also going to need to decide which team is going to win. The last player to win the Conn Smythe trophy in a losing effort was Jean Sebastian Giguere in 2003 with Anaheim. Besides J-S Giguere, only four other players have accomplished the same feat.
If you think Colorado is going to win, I would suggest backing the current favorite Cale Makar at +180. In the Western Conference Finals, he recorded 5 points in a single game which ranks 2nd all time in terms of most points by a defenseman in a single playoff game. Currently Makar has 22 points this post season which ranks 14th all time for most points by a defenseman in a single playoff year. If he was able to just get four more points in the Stanley Cup finals he would move up to third all time. Besides his offensive ability Makar has shown his defensive ability as well shutting down Connor McDavid last series. He’s only been on the ice for 14 goals against at even strength this post season. If he does win, he will become just the third defenseman in the last 10 years to win the Conn Smythe. If you’re looking for a Colorado player with larger odds, I think Mikko Rantanen has a shot at +1500.
If you think Tampa Bay is going to win, I would start with either Nikita Kucherov (+400) or Andrei Vasilevskiy (+400). As I mentioned earlier, Vasilevskiy won this award last year and would become the first goalie to win this award in back to back years since Bernie Parent in 1974-75 with the Philadelphia Flyers. The last player to win the Conn Smythe in back to back seasons was Sidney Crosby in 2016-17. Kucherov finished second in the 2021 Conn Smythe voting. His linemate Bryden Point went down in the first round but that hasn’t stopped his offensive production at all. Without Point, he has 15 points in the playoffs and has been a huge part of Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup run. If Tampa Bay does win their third straight we could see a scenario where voters award Kucherov the Conn Smythe even if Vasilevskiy is the MVP given the results last season. If you’re looking for a Tampa Bay player with larger odds, I think captain Steven Stamkos has a shot at +1500.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I enjoyed a +3.7u weekend and now find myself +13.11u over the last 5 weeks. I’m rolling with 4 plays to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(+115) vs Marlins–6:05 PM CT
We’ll see a dandy of a pitching matchup tonight with Sandy Alcanatara squaring off against Aaron Nola. Nola’s 3.50 ERA is one of the most deceiving stats in baseball; he holds the 3rd best WHIP in the league(0.88) and sees that WHIP drop all the way to 0.78 in his home ballpark. The Marlins offense is about as mediocre as they come, and they were gifted 6 unearned runs in their series in Houston over the weekend, which can make their “current form” seem better than it really is. They tallied just 3 hits vs Justin Verlander yesterday and will have just as tall of a task in this one. Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara has been nothing short of incredible here in 2022, but he greatly benefits from pitching at LoanDepot Park. Last year, Alcanatra held an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.20 on the road, and his road WHIP this year is 0.21 points higher than it is at home. The Phillies are 9-1 over their last 10 are scoring 6.5 runs/game in that span. In that span, they’ve beaten two top-of-the-line pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen. Some might see yesterday’s blowout loss as a sign of regression, but one off day is not going to keep me off a team that is still one of the hottest in baseball. I like Nola matching up with the mediocre Marlins offense and think the Phillies can continue their streak of dominance against top-of-the-line pitching. Rather than have to lay juice on the F5 ML, I’ll defer to the F5 run line.
*MLB(1u): White Sox/Tigers F5 UNDER 4.5(-115)–6:10 PM CT
Tigers SP Rony Garcia has been subject mostly to the bullpen early in his career, but he’s been quite effective as a starter. He held the Yankees to just 2 runs through 5 innings(in Yankee Stadium) his last time out and holds a very good 1.00 WHIP in 28 innings this season. While the White Sox put up 23 runs over the weekend, virtually all of their success came against left-handed pitching. Against righties this season, the White Sox rank just 28th in OPS and are still without Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiminez, and likely Yasmani Grandal. Righty Jon Gray was able to dominate the White Sox yesterday, so I expect Garcia to be effective in this one. White Sox SP Lance Lynn will make his season debut today looking to build off a sub-3.00 ERA season. Lynn threw a complete-game shutout in his second start of 2021, so it shouldn’t take him long to get integrated into the swing of the season. The Tigers lineup has been atrocious all season(last in OPS vs righties) and followed that up by scoring just 4 runs in their weekend series against the Blue Jays. Considering Comerica Park does hitters no favors, I don’t see why this number is not set at 4; if I had to guess, the White Sox are being priced for their overall offensive numbers and not accounting for how poor they’ve been vs right-handed pitching. In any case, I see a lot of value on this F5 Under.
The Cardinals might’ve taken 2 out of 3 vs Cincinnati over the weekend, but they just as easily could have lost that series if not for a heroic comeback on Saturday. Today, they’ll send rookie Zack Thompson to the hill to make just his 2nd career start. To put it simply, I’m very low on Thompson; he allowed 5 or more runs 3 separate times in the minors this year and held a brutal 7.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP across 19 starts in AAA last year. The Pirates are not a great offense, but they remained competitive in their weekend series in Atlanta despite facing the likes of Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright. There is some major blowup potential for Thompson entering tonight’s start. While Pirates SP Mitch Keller’s numbers won’t wow you, he has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his past 4 starts. The Cardinals crush left-handed pitching but are a very beatable lineup against righties(18th in OPS vs righties this year). I price these bullpens as equals, although I think the Pirates poor middle-relief arms have weighed down some of their overall numbers. The Pirates have a road sweep at the Dodgers to their name this year; facing a vulnerable young arm, they are more than capable of winning this game. I will sprinkle on the full game ML to win a full unit.
*MLB(1u): Mariners SERIES(-115) vs Twins
My series play on the Rays didn’t work out over the weekend, but I still remain adamant in my belief that the Twins are going to struggle in the month of June. At basically a pick’em price, I will fire on the Mariners to win this series.
Derek has also added a nice little twist in adding an additional 1 Million dollars for entries that go 20-0 without using the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals! Here are the highlights below.
