Game one conquered, onto game two! That’s exactly why we didn’t take the Warriors full game as a premium pick – Boston is as legit as their position suggests and they’ll give Golden State everything they can handle in this series. Predictably, the books are trying to bait us in game two. I have some early bets I like and HEY – not a bad day in MLB Thursday. If only the Twins didn’t choke, again, but maybe this is the day to play on them… (na, not against the Jays in Toronto).
Happy Friday, everyone!
NBA Finals Game 2:
Parlay: Warriors ML win + Over 215.5, 1 unit to win 1.94 units
Over 215.5, 1 unit
Celtics 1H +3, 1 unit
Lean Warriors -4
Defenses tend to not settle into these long series until later in the contest. Nerves, pressure, and physicality increase as the series goes on, too. We may consider some unders later but for now, I still really like the over. Golden State and Boston are A-okay pushing the pace and both are extremely efficient in transition offense. As the series goes on, we should expect significant regression from beyond the arc, too. Both teams had exceptional shooting nights from the perimeter, but I favor GS to win and I lean the full game -4 because I don’t think Boston can sustain that kind of 3-point success. I mean, Smart/Horford/White went 15/23 from beyond the arc – that’s insane. Golden state rallies, points are scored, but they won’t get there until the 3rd QTR (as usual). Taking Boston early; giving 3 points to the Celtics feels criminal.
MLB Picks:
Orioles ML (+117), 1 unit to win 1.17 units
Something is weird about this line. The Guardians have been hitting well and haven’t been as bad against lefties, but that always feels like fake-news with the lineup they have and how inconsistent that can be. I believe in Bieber but I’m still not sure he’s set in his command. Taking the home dog on a Friday at one of the best ballparks in the majors!
Yankees -6.5… joking but, may actually hit.
Padres/Brewers First 5 under 3.5 (-130), 1.3 units to win 1
I’m taking the bait! Two aces take the mound in a big-time pitcher’s dual and like the Giants/Marlins contest yesterday, 3.5 still feels too big for the first half.
MLB Parlay – Rays + Jays (again), 1 unit to win 1.18 units
French Open Picks:
Ruud/Cilic over 39, 1.5 units
Cilic is looking like the best version of himself in this tournament and he should give the favorite everything he can handle. I expect a 4-5 set match like Cilic had against Rublev.
San Diego vs Milwaukee 8:10 PM EST, June 3, 2022 This is game-2 of a four-game series between these two National League teams. The betting line prices the Milwaukee Brewers as -145 home favorites over the San Diego Padres.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove starts for the Padres and is off to a terrific start to the season with a 5-0 record I nine starts and posting a 1.86 ERA and a 0.963 WHIP including 11 walks and 58 strikeouts spanning 58 innings of work.
The Brewers will have right-hander Corbin Burnes on the hill and is 3-2 over 10 starts with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP including just 11 walks and 78 strikeouts spanning 62 2/3 innings of work. He ranks 5th in MLB with 10.86 strikeouts per nine innings worked and third overall in total strikeouts. Padres are 12-22 losing 15 units per unit wagered after losing six or seven of their last eight games ion games played over the last two seasons.
I am betting on the Milwaukee Brewers boxed with Burnes (he MUST start) in this Friday NL showdown at -145 on the moneyline as offered by the BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Rangers took Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals by a score of 6-2 behind an incredible performance from Igor Shesterkin. The Bolts had 4.45 xGoals compared to New York’s 2.48. However, as I mentioned in my article yesterday the game came down to goaltending. Vasilevskiy had his worst performance of the playoffs with a -3.52 GSAx compared to Igor’s +2.45 GSAx.
We now move onto Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. Pavel Francouz takes over the netminder duties for Colorado tonight. Darcy Kuemper was injured in Game 1 and his timetable for return is unknown. Francouz does have some playoff experience this post season. As you recall, Kuemper was injured in Game 3 of the first round and Francouz finished that game and started Game 4. During that span he had a .902 SV% and a 2.97 GAA.
Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 1-0)
The Avalanche and Oilers combined for 14 goals in the first game of the series. Thirteen different skaters recorded a goal with Colorado’s J.T. Compher being the only player to tally multiple goals. Twenty-five players also registered at least one point with McDavid and Makar finishing with a game high three points a piece.
In Game 1 the total closed at 7.0 and now we see it moved to a playoff high of 7.5. Edmonton and Colorado lead the post season in terms of total goals and goals for per game. The over is 4-0 for Edmonton on the road and 4-1 in Colorado’s last five overall. So while this movement is justified, it’s still crazy to see a post season game have this high of a total. Traditionally we’ve seen lower totals in the playoffs but that trend has certainly been reversed this year. Over the course of the last three NHL season’s there have been 12 games with a total of 7.5 or higher, the Under is 11-1!
In terms of the side’s, Colorado was the home favorite with -195 odds in the first game. However, in Game 2 the line has shifted to -175. The Avalanche opened Game 2 around those same odds in Game 1 but even with most of the wagers and money coming in on them, that line has dropped. The Oilers have only lost back to back games once this post season and that was back in their first series against Los Angeles. Colorado won back to back games at home during their first series with Nashville but split the first two games against St. Louis in the second round.
Mike Smith will get the start for the Oilers tonight after a getting pulled in the first game of the series. He finished that game with a -3.49 GSAx, stopping 19 of 25 shots against. As I previously mentioned, Pavel Francouz will get the start for the Avalanche. Francouz had never played against the Oilers prior to making a relief appearance in Game 1. He had a -0.24 GSAx in that game 5.62 GAA and .857 SV%. Pavel Francouz also struggled in his relief appearance in the first round but played better when he started in the next game. We’ll see if he continues that trend here with him facing a much more offensively gifted team.
PICK: [1U] EDMONTON OILERS TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 INCL OT (+115) – DRAFTKINGS
Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers are averaging the second most goals per game in the playoffs with 4.46. In Game 1 of this series they had 4.37 expected goals and managed to record 6 against Kuemper. Now, in Game 2, they face Pavel Francouz who has only started on game in this post season. In that game he allowed 3 goals to Nashville who during the regular season ranked 12th in GF/GP compared to Edmonton who ranked 7th. Also, after every loss in the post season the Oilers have scored four or more goals the next game and I see that trend continuing here.
PLAYER PROP: [0.5U] NAZEM KADRI OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL (-104) – FANDUEL
Over the course of the regular season, Nazem Kadri averages 3.5 Shots on Goal overall but 3.9 at home. He has gone over this total in 3 of his last 5 games at home which includes last game when he recorded 9 shots on 11 attempts. Kadri played against the Oilers twice during the regular season and went 1/2.
PLAYER PROP: [0.5U] CONNOR MCDAVID OVER 1.5 POINTS (-135) – DRAFTKINGS
From the start of the post season, Connor McDavid has put on an absolute show averaging 2.23 points per game. He leads the NHL in playoff points with 29. His line mate Leon Draisaitl is right behind him with 28. We’ve seen some of McDavid’s best performances come after a loss. During the playoffs, the Oilers have only lost three games. After each one of those games, McDavid has recorded over 1.5 points. The Avalanche showed no sign of being able to slow him down in Game 1 and with a bit of extra motivation, I think we see him put on a show again tonight.
PLAYER PROP: [0.5U] LEON DRAISAITL OVER 1.5 POINTS (+110) – DRAFTKINGS
I don’t trust Draisaitl as much as McDavid but Draisaitl over 1.5 is also worth a look. He’s their main shooter on their powerplay and has recorded over 1.5 points in their last five games. Looking a larger same size of data, he has gone over this number in eight of his last ten games. Draisaitl is also averaging 2.15 points per game this post season.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Thursday card has the 2022 100% NBA Playoff Game of the Year backed with a 14-0 and 26-2 system, there is a big 5* 13-0 MLB Totals System, the 2X System NHL Play and afternoon soccer. Wednesday card sweeps going 4-0. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on Atlanta at 8:40 eastern. The Braves are 6-0 vs a lefty and 5-0 vs a pitcher with a WHIP that is 1.30 or higher. They will face Gomber for Colorado who has a 2-5 record with a 5.57 Era tonight and we like Anderson for the Braves to out pitch him tonight. Colorado is 0-8 off a win and 1-8 in game 1 of a series. Colorado also applies a to a 132-312 play against system and we also note that home dogs off a home favored win scoring 13 or more runs are 0-6 vs a team like the Braves who are off a road favored win. Look for Atlanta to take the opener. On Thursday we are coming off a 4-0 sweep and have the 2022 NBA Playoff Game of the Year with 26-2 and 14-0 systems. We also have a 5* 13-0 MLB Totals system and a double system NHL Playoff selection along with a powerful Afternoon Soccer total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Braves. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
The NBA Finals have finally arrived and we’re pretty STOKED. Limiting my MLB plays today – annoyed by that Yankee game being postponed because now LAA is starting Ohtani against Cortes (so that bet gets voided). Regardless, I’m feeling better and better about our takes in the majors – expect significant improvement in our plays moving forward.
Onto today’s picks!
NBA Finals, Game 1 (and futures):
Full Game Over 211, 1.5 units
Warriors 1Q -0.5, 1.5 units
Curry wins MVP (+110), 1 unit
Warriors win series 4-3 (+400), 1 unit
Game 1 is at the Chase Center and the Warriors will be WELL RESTED heading into this contest. The best way for them to take advantage of the Celtics’ lack of rest and get a win? Up the pace, small-ball the hell out of their defense and space them out, and run the floor in transition. I lean Warriors full game, too, and like them even more early. I may have more plays on this game -settling into these two wagers for now. Let’s go!
As far as the Curry MVP add, if the Warriors win, it’s VERY likely that he’ll be the MVP. The talk is already all over the media; things like, “How important is it to Curry’s legacy that he wins an MVP?” Shit like that. The table is set and GS winning it straight up is juiced up to -150 at most books. We also like the 4-3, seven game series scenario for the Warriors. They have home-court advantage, haven’t lost at home, they have a significant experience edge, and this is an important moment for their dynasty and its legacy. The Celtics are extremely feisty so I have little doubt that they’ll push GS to their limits.
MLB Picks:
Twins -1.5 (+135), 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Alex Michael Faedo has a few marks that are worrisome, particularly a 5.79 xERA, and there’s not a ton of upside in his profile, and the Twins are WAY overdue to explode on offense.
Rays + Blue Jays M parlay, 1 unit to win 1.67
Kluber (TB, 4.03 xERA) is coming into his own after a great showing against NYY. Hearn (TX, 6.44 xERA) isn’t on the same planet and has little command to speak of. The Rays’ wouldn’t mind even-ing up this series after a poor start, either. As far as the Blue Jays, we’ll continue to trust in Manoah (2.74 xERA) at home, who hasn’t missed a beat, against a cold White Sox offense.
We have a great show for you today! Las vegas Matty @FootballContest, @Vegas_Matty comes on to discuss some of the huge football handicapping contests in Las Vegas! First, Kiev talks about membership packages and some promotions that we are putting on here at The OddsBreakers! Next, Kiev gets into the NFC South and East previews with some great info and FREE PLAYS. Then, we discuss UFC Vegas 56 with a play and some leans. Next, Matty comes on to discuss some massive improvements that the Circa has made to this years contest! How much will the payouts be? What are the side contests and what is included? What kind of early-bird specials is FootballContest.com offering! Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreeakers.
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Chris provides a full preview of the NBA Finals matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. Tune in for his analysis, betting tips, and his thoughts on Game 1 tomorrow night at the Chase Center.
Chris is 68-52 (57%) for +11 units in the NBA playoffs – check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
Coming off a 1-1 split last night, I still sit at +13.26u over the last 23 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the new month off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Athletics TT UNDER 2.5(-110) vs Astros–2:37 PM CT
The Athletics are a putrid offense that doesn’t have much hope of flipping the script given the lack of talent on their roster. On the year, the A’s rank just 27th in runs and dead last in OPS vs right-handed pitching. They will be completely overmatched today facing Justin Verlander of the Astros. Verlander holds a brilliant 2.03 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, and the only knock on him is that he gives up a few more home runs than you’d like. Fortunately, the A’s rank second-to-last in slugging% this season. I also trust an Astros ‘pen in the later innings that ranks 1st in bullpen ERA this year and 3rd in bullpen WHIP. I expect Verlander to go pretty deep in this game and for the A’s to have no answers for this Houston pitching staff.
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 4.5(-130) @ Diamondbacks–2:40 PM CT
The Braves have dropped each of the first 2 games of this series, but they have failed to lose 3 straight games this season. In yesterday’s loss, the offense still put up 14 hits and 7 runs, and they’ll get a very favorable matchup today. DBacks SP Madison Bumgarner is well past his prime; while a 3.35 ERA might look impressive, a 5.27 FIP is a strong indicator that Bumgarner is due to fall flat on his face. This year, Bumgarner is striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings, giving up 1.7 HR/9, and allowing a hard-hit rate above 30%. The Braves hold a .792 OPS vs lefties on the road this year and should have an opportunity to creep above .800 after today. In addition, I feel comfortable going against a D-Backs bullpen that ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP and has seen their closer Mark Melancon throw each of the past 2 days. Bumgarner’s early season success is not sustainable, so getting a standard TT at a reasonable price when we know the Braves will have 27 outs to work with is very generous.
*MLB(1u): Giants/Phillies F5 UNDER 4(-110)–5:05 PM CT
This is a grade A pitching matchup with Aaron Nola taking the hill opposite of Carlos Rodon. Nola’s 0.94 WHIP is incredibly impressive, and as has become custom, Nola pitches better in his home ballpark. He’s also sustained a very high strikeout rate that should play well against a Giants lineup that is still without Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade, and Austin Slater. Carlos Rodon has had a shaky last few starts, but I don’t think that amounts to much in the long term. Coming off a career best season, all this lefty has done is strike out 11.5 batters per 9 innings, allow just 0.54 HR/9, and hold a FIP at 2.62. While the Phillies have hit lefties well on the road, that has yet to translate to their home ballpark. Getting a F5 total with this good of a pitching matchup is generous, especially when neither offense is in great current form. F5 Under is the play.
Hump Day MLB 100% Highest Rated Blowout System Wins by average 4 runs. NHL in a Big run. Tonight a Double System Dominator in Game 1. Afternoon Soccer and The French Open Semifinals play in Tennis. MLB Totals Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Under 7.5 runs in the Minnesota at Detroit game at 7:10 eastern, The game applies to the powerful 78% totals system below which pertains to home dogs off a home dog win scoring 4 or less runs and a Prior home dog loss scoring 3 or less if the opponent, the Twins in this case scored 1 or no runs on less than 4 hits. The Twins have gone under 4 of 5 vs a lefty and have Ober going and he has a solid Era and has allowed 1 or less earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Skubal for the Tigers has a 2.44 Era and in his last 3 home starts has allowed just 3 earned runs spanning 19 innings. Detroit has gone under in 7 of 9 a home vs a righty. Look for this game to stay under. On Wednesday a powerful card is up with a 6* MLB Blowout from a Perfect system winning by over 4 runs on average. We also have the Double system NHL Game 1 Power System Play as well as Afternoon Soccer and the Ladies Semifinal at the French Open in tennis. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the Hump day play. Go under in the Twins at Tigers game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
O/U: 2-9-0
Jul 10, 2005 recap Sun 2005 home Giants Noah Lowry-L Cardinals Jeff Suppan-R 3-4 -1 L -2.0 U 13-10 1-0 1-3 145.0 9.0 9
Jul 22, 2007 recap Sun 2007 home Nationals Tim Redding-R Rockies Josh Fogg-R 3-0 3 W -6.0 U 6-7 0-0 3-0 110.0 9.0 9
Apr 03, 2014 recap Thu 2014 home Reds Homer Bailey-R Cardinals Lance Lynn-R 6-7 -1 L 5.5 O 10-11 0-1 3-4 -110.0 7.5 9
Apr 25, 2015 recap Sat 2015 home Phillies David Buchanan-R Braves Shelby Miller-R 2-5 -3 L -0.5 U 6-9 0-1 2-3 105.0 7.5 9
May 31, 2016 recap Tue 2016 home Mets Steven Matz-L White Sox Mat Latos-R 4-6 -2 L 2.5 O 8-9 2-2 4-2 -175.0 7.5 9
Aug 02, 2017 recap Wed 2017 home Padres Luis Perdomo-R Twins Ervin Santana-R 2-5 -3 L -1.5 U 4-7 1-0 0-4 -105.0 8.5 9
Jun 28, 2018 recap Thu 2018 home Phillies Aaron Nola-R Nationals Tanner Roark-R 4-3 1 W -1.0 U 9-7 0-1 3-1 -130.0 8.0 9
Aug 25, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Marlins Wei Yin Chen-L Braves Anibal Sanchez-R 3-1 2 W -3.5 U 6-9 1-0 3-0 155.0 7.5 9
Sep 15, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Giants Madison Bumgarner-L Rockies German Marquez-R 3-0 3 W -4.0 U 8-7 1-0 3-0 125.0 7.0 9
Sep 22, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Marlins Jose Urena-R Reds Anthony DeSclafani-R 5-1 4 W -1.5 U 7-6 0-2 5-0 100.0 7.5 9
Apr 12, 2019 recap Fri 2019 home Giants Drew Pomeranz-L Rockies Chad Bettis-R 3-2 1 W -3.0 U 8-11 2-0 1-2 -140.0 8.0 10
Jun 01, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Tigers Tarik Skubal-L Twins Bailey Ober-R 100.0 7.5
