By Ron Marmalefsky – June 4, 2022

Starting with the NFC East, here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule.

DALLAS: All NFC East teams play the NFC North and the AFC South.  Also, most NFC teams will play nine home games in 2022.  With all that factored in, the four teams in this Division, along with Indy from the relatively soft AFC South have the five easiest schedules in 2022.  Because Dallas plays on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have an exciting three times where they have ten days between games.  Overall, that contributes to a +8 rest day differential.  Dallas opens hosting Tampa, a team they lost to on opening day, 2021.  Tom Brady is 6-0 vs. the Cowboys in his career, but the game last year was close.  Twice, Dallas will have three road games in a four-game stretch.  After playing on MNF at the NYG, they come home to play Washington.  Two tough road games follow, at Philly and at the LA Rams.  Games 7-10 has Dallas playing all four NFC North teams.  The Lions will be fully rested, but the Bears will be off MNF, and Dallas will be rested before traveling to play at GB, who will have just been on the road for three straight games.  After playing at Minny, Dallas is home for three straight weeks.  Games 11-15 are home to the NYG, Colts and Texans, a road game at the Jags, and back home to face Philly.  Considering they have ten days before hosting Indy, while the Colts are off a MNF game, Dallas could go 4-1 or better in this stretch.  Closing games are at Tennessee in a rare Thursday Night December game and at Washington, again with extra preparation time.  Yes, Dallas lost a few players this offseason but is still the likely favorite in the Division.  The season win total is 10.5.  My opening Power # is set at 29.

NEW YORK GIANTS: The NYG thankfully have a new coaching staff, and even better, have a new GM that oversaw a solid 2022 draft.  The next step is simple: Finding a way to actually win games early in the season.  Designated the road team in London (vs. GB), they will have just seven true road games in 2022.  The 1^st important game is week two hosting Carolina.  Win that, and the record is (likely) 1-1.  Amazingly, after their opener on 9/11 at Tennessee, the NYG do not have a true road game until 10/23.  Games 2,3,4, and 6 are at home, and game #5 is in London.  The opponents won’t be easy.  They host Dallas on SNF, and play a Baltimore team in its 2^nd visit to the stadium, having earlier played the NYJ.  In that Cowboy game, it’s been reported that QB Jones is 0-8 in prime time.  Luckily, it’s the only night game on the NYG schedule.  The “easiest” game in this part of the schedule is hosting Chicago.  This is the 5^th year in a row they will play, but both teams have new coaches and GM’s.  In another tidbit, new defensive coordinator Wink Martingale will face his former team (Baltimore).  The softer part of the schedule is games 7-10, when they go to Jacksonville and Seattle, have a week off, and then host Houston and Detroit.  I don’t like THIS team not having a bye after the London game, so beginning week six (Baltimore), I expect a 1-2 ceiling before their bye week.  That makes the two home games essential wins if they are to compete in 2022.  Five of the NYG last seven games are vs. Divisional rivals.  The other two games are at Minny and home to Indy.  Those games are #15 and #16, and could be meaningful.  Not expected to be fully contenders in 2022, wins here would change the dynamic.  The NYG close the season at Philly, where they last won in 2013.  I’ve seen mostly 7.5 as their opening season win total, juiced to the under.  I think some 7 sets may be available.  It’s a new staff, and still Daniel Jones at QB, so my opening Power # is set at 21.5.

PHILLY: I continually discuss how new coaches benefit from having early bye weeks.  Philly’s the 2021 example.  As noted in various podcasts, they adjusted offensively after their early bye week, and rocketed to the playoffs playing to their offensive strengths.  Here comes year #2.  Yes, the opponents are not overly tough, but the schedule layout is challenging.  Here are the negatives.  Philly is the only team that will have four road games with less preparation time.  They are at Washington week three after playing on MNF, at Texas on Thursday night after a Sunday game, at Indy week 11 after playing Divisional rival Washington on MNF, and at Dallas on Saturday after a Sunday game in week 16.  Yes, Dallas also has the short week, but for Philly, it’s their 3^rd road game in a row, which is a disadvantage when considering the reduced time span.  The good news is that the six games before the bye week are not that difficult.  The goal is 3-1 (at Detroit, home to Minny on MNF, at Washington, home to the Jags) before playing at Arizona (no WR Hopkins) and home to Dallas on SNF.  A win hosting the Cowboys “could” give Philly a nice early lead in the Division.  The record could slip a bit after the bye with the game hosting a rested GB (mini-bye) a bit tricky.  Right after that (week 13) Philly and new WR Brown hosts Tennessee and his former team.  Up next is their three-game road stand (NYG, Chicago, Dallas on Saturday).  Philly is 7-2 the last nine at Chicago, but 2-1 would certainly seem the ceiling in this stretch.  Philly might hope for inclement weather when they host dome team New Orleans on 1/1.  They close hosting the NYG.  Philly’s seasonal win total is 8.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that moves up.  My opening Power # set is 27.

WASHINGTON: Washington had erratic QB play in 2021 and the back end of the defense badly regressed.  Is Carson Wentz the answer?  Like the rest of the Division, the schedule is on the soft side, but there are some tricky parts to it.  Washington’s bye week is week 14.  Playing 13 straight weeks, including three road games in weeks 10-13 cries out fatigue!  Can they steal a win at Detroit week two?  Every win will matter before they get to those midseason road games.  We’ll know plenty about Washington by the time October ends.  Games three and four are home to Philly (emotional for Wentz) and at Dallas.  Hosting Tennessee after the two Divisional games won’t be easy.  Going to Chicago for a Thursday night game is likely a tossup at best.  They have extra rest after that, but GB is a formidable opponent.  Going to Indy pits Wentz against his 2021 teammates.  As fatigue sets in, Washington must play at Philly on MNF and then travel to Houston on a short week, and their 11^th straight game.  Game placement matters.  Houston may be the worst team in the NFL, but this situation greatly favors them.  For their 13^th straight game, Washington faces a NYG team who will be home and off ten days rest.  The good news is that after the bye week, they host the NYG once again.  The final three games are at SF (SF nine days off, Washington six), home to Cleveland, and home to Dallas (Dallas three extra days rest).  It would seem like Washington is better than in 2021, but I don’t like the layout of the schedule enough to endorse them.  Their opening season win total is 7.5.  My opening Power # is set at 24.

Continuing with the NFC North here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule

CHICAGO: All NFC North teams play the NFC East and the AFC East.  Chicago is still a TV draw, but after going 0-4 in prime time in 2021 they are down to three such affairs in 2022.  The pacing for 2021 was not good.  This one seems better, especially late in the season.  Hosting SF week one could be interesting.  They might want to steal a win in this spot, as they will play four of five on the road between weeks four and eight.  The road games are at the NYG, Minny, NE on MNF, and Dallas with Chicago having the shorter preparation time.  The home game in the middle of these contests is a Thursday night one with Washington.  The full bye week is not until after week 13.  How tired will the Bears be during the “easier” part of the schedule when they host Detroit, and go to Atlanta and the NYJ?  The goal is a 3-5 start (I can’t see any better), and 3-2 or hopefully for them 4-1 before the bye, which in addition to the three games listed, also includes home games vs. Miami and GB.  I don’t think the roster is good enough for even 6-7, but if I’m wrong, the final four games are not that daunting.  Completing a stretch in which Chicago is at home for four of their final five games (plus the bye), the Bears host Philly and Buffalo, go to Detroit and finish by hosting Minny.  Chicago’s season win total has not matched the late schedule optimism.  They opened at 7.5, dropped to 7, and most of the current numbers are down to 6.5.  My opening Power # set is 21.

DETROIT: I’m not a big fan of QB Goff, but the team surrounding him is getting better, and the coaching staff has a year under their belts.  There are several reasons why the 2022 schedule is quite favorable.  1^st, they travel the 2^nd fewest miles of any NFL team.  2^nd. They have a +11 rest day differential.  3^rd, the scheduling pacing is nice, with NO NIGHT GAMES, and just the one annual Thanksgiving game.  They are the only NFL team without a prime-time game.  Finally, their bye week placements are perfectly spaced out, and they even have a three-game home stretch beginning on Thanksgiving.  If they underachieve, it certainly won’t be because of the schedule.  The goal is 3-2 early, with home games vs. Philly, Washington and Seattle, and road games at Minny and NE.  The 1^st five games after the full bye week have Miami and GB coming to Detroit, and road games at Dallas, Chicago and the NYG.  No game is going to be easy for this still incomplete roster, but I expect many a close game, so strategy and kicking will be of the upmost importance.  The late homestand starts out with Buffalo, and continues with Jacksonville (Lions rested) and Minny.  If the Lions and Goff can start fast (in the season and in the games themselves), the closing stretch is also manageable.  Games 14-16 are at the Jets and Panthers, and home to Chicago.  Again, I like it when a team visits the same stadium twice, and the Lions will have played at the NYG four weeks earlier, before returning to play the Jets.  Detroit closes at GB.  As Chicago’s season win total moves down, the Lions win total has moved up, from an opener of 6 to 6.5 in many shops.  I also have set my opening Power # above what I used for Chicago, with the number set at 22.

GREEN BAY: GB let a 2^nd straight Super Bowl berth get away (as the #1 seed) in 2021 and tries to avoid the hat trick as the favorite again in the weaker NFC.  Three issues concern me with this schedule.  1^st, they have only eight “true” home games, with the 9^th one in London.  2^nd, they have a league worst -13 rest day differential.  Finally, the bye week is in December, creating fatigue situations.  The overall Power # of their opponents however, is on the softer side.  Games 1-4 feature early Divisional affairs, plus a road game at Tampa and a home game vs. NE.  3-1 is possible, but not a guarantee.  GB chose not to have a week off after going to London, but hosting the Jets after that trip isn’t the worse thing to have.  After that however, GB has five of their next seven games on the road, including three road games in a row (Washington, Buffalo on SNF), Detroit).  All seven of these games are before their bye week, so I look for fatigue during this period.  In further notes for these games, Washington will have ten days to prepare, Buffalo will be off their full bye week, the Lions will be in their 2^nd of back-to-back home games, Dallas will be off their full bye week, and when they play the short week, Thursday game hosting Tennessee, it will be their 11^th game in a row without any rest.  The good news is this: Even if they underachieve and go 8-5 or even 7-6 early on, the late bye may still find them leading the NFC North!  Three of their final four games are at home, potentially in cold weather conditions.  They host the Rams on MNF (GB off full bye, but Rams also have a mini-bye), go to Miami on short rest, host Minny (Minny off a Saturday game, so they get an extra day) and close hosting Detroit.  I’m not in love with this pacing, but the Division is not that strong.  GB opened with a seasonal win total of 11, but 10.5 is more common now.  My opening Power # is set at 30.

MINNESOTA: Minnesota has been a good team for several years running, but never a true Super Bowl contender.  They enter 2022 with a new GM and staff, this after the last combination proved dysfunctional at the end, with little to no dialogue.  Contrary to GB’s situation, Minny’s London game finds them as the designated road team (New Orleans), meaning Minny has only seven true road games.  I find it interesting that Minny’s uncommon opponents (the teams the rest of the Division will NOT play) are Arizona, Indy and the Saints).  At 1^st glance, these all look like tossups to me.  I think the pre-bye week schedule is tricky.  The new staff hosts GB week one and then goes to Philly for a MNF affair.  The two offenses are vastly different in scheme.  Hosting the Lions doesn’t seem overwhelming after that, but it’s a short week for the new staff.  Again, Minny is another team that chose not to have their bye week after playing in London.  They host Chicago and their new coach, so a win is still quite possible, but hardly a guarantee.  The next game is at Miami and their new staff.  I show 3-3 as the absolute ceiling for these games, and it could be worse.  The goal is 2-1 after the bye (Arizona, at Washington, at Buffalo), but is that also a stretch?  5-4 would be ideal, as five of their next seven games are at home.  The Thursday night game is hosting NE.  I think it’s a plus facing Belichick when he has less time to prepare.  There won’t be a letdown with ten days to prepare to host the Jets.  Even at 3-6, Minny could still be in playoff contention with a strong showing in this set of games, but with road games at GB and Chicago to end 2022, I’m not sure they can completely rebound if 3-6 is indeed the record.  Maybe it’s not horrible, but I do not find it ideal that their three Divisional games down the stretch (last five weeks) are all road games.  Games 1-6 are incredibly important for this team.  Minny’s season win total is 9, a number I think is too high, at least for now.  My opening Power # is set at 26.5

Continuing with the NFC South here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule

ATLANTA: Atlanta and the rest of the Division plays games vs. the tough NFC West and the AFC North.  My initial look at the schedule pacing finds me thinking Atlanta has some nice advantages.  Their only night game is on a Thursday, meaning their Sunday schedule has the routine all coaches love.  The negative is that the mini-bye is after week ten, and the full bye after week 13.  It’s not a new staff, but it is a new QB, and adjustments will have to wait.  The toughest part of the schedule is early, coming in weeks 2-7.  The opener vs. New Orleans will find them as an underdog as well.  After that, it’s road games at the LA Rams and Seahawks, home to Cleveland, at Tampa, home to SF, and at Cincy.  Maybe they are favored vs. Cleveland (my opening Power #’s say no), but that’s it.  They’ll play the Panthers twice in the next three weeks, including hosting them on that Thursday night game.  Atlanta went 2-0 vs. Carolina a year ago.  I think this year 1-1 is far more likely, obviously assuming injuries are not one-sided either way.  Games 11-13 are home to Chicago, at Washington and home to Pitt.  If Atlanta avoids fatigue, this is the part of the schedule (along with the games vs. Carolina) that is favorable.  To reiterate, the pacing is fine, but how good is the roster?  Both Atlanta and New Orleans are off bye weeks when they play in December.  This is typically a tossup series no matter who seems like the better team.  The closing three games are not easy, reading at Baltimore, and home to Arizona and Tampa.  Atlanta has to hope that Arizona is in yet another late season swoon, and that Tampa might rest their 85-year-old QB, some guy named Tom Brady.  Atlanta’s season win number opened at 5.5 (even 6 reportedly in one spot) but is now mostly seen at 5.  I went under 5.5.  My opening Power # is set at just 19.

CAROLINA: I went 7-2 in season over-unders a year ago (not counting profitable middle tries and arbs).  My one OVER play was with Carolina, and it lost.  The combination of Darnold and McCaffrey went 4-1 when both started, but Carolina was a putrid 1-11 otherwise.  Like Atlanta, this team plays only one night game, and it’s the one they play at the Falcon’s home site.  Just like Atlanta, they have a late mini-bye, and a December full bye.  But unlike Atlanta, Carolina has a shot to make some noise early, with a favorable 1^st five games.  They open vs. Cleveland, a good team with complete uncertainty at QB.  After going to play at the NYG, Carolina stays home to face New Orleans, Arizona and SF.  SF will be off a huge revenge MNF game at the LA Rams.  Last year Carolina started 3-0 (then McCaffrey was injured).  4-1 is achievable, although of course hardly a guarantee.  Three of the next five games are inside the Division, including two vs. Atlanta.  The other three are far tougher, reading at the LA Rams, home to Tampa and at Cincy (Cincy off a rare MNF game).  If they stay healthy, I think 6-5 is possible before they host Denver.  Is that realistic?  Maybe not, but the pacing is nice.  I do find the Denver game tricky because of potential fatigue.  Games 13-15 after the bye week are manageable.  They go to Seattle, and host Pitt and Detroit.  2-1 absolutely has to be the goal.  I like Matt Ruhle as a program builder, but these days no Head Coach gets time to build a program.  Carolina closes at Tampa and at New Orleans, which isn’t ideal.  I’ve seen their season win total at 6 and 5.5.  Carolina is NOT a public team.  My search to find one seasonal OVER win total includes the Panthers, even though I got burned on them a year ago.  We’ll see what happens right before the season starts.  My opening Power # is set at 22.5.

NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans has a nasty habit of drafting about five players per season, but the players drafted usually are good, and the veterans they have added are also good.  With QB Winston healthy, this could be an underrated team, but can Dennis Allen manage Winston like former coach Sean Payton, who was masterful in offensive scheming?  Unlike the 1^st two teams in this Division, I don’t like the pacing of this schedule.  Games 1-3 are all inside the Division.  That can be tricky for a new staff, although promoting in-house may make this a moot point.  They lose a home game, with the London game vs. Minny the “9^th” home game.  They won’t take the week off, but will be home to face Seattle.  They’ll stay at home to face Cincy, who will be off a physical SNF road game at Baltimore.  Amazingly, 4-2 is in play as long as Winston and the offense stays relatively decent without Payton.  Also note that the status of RB Kamara (off-field issue) must be monitored.  I think the week seven Thursday night game at Arizona is tricky, and WR Hopkins return from suspension.  The Saints host Baltimore on MNF with the Ravens off their mini-bye.  That makes them dangerous.  It also sets up a short week road game at Pitt, who will be off a full bye!  See what I mean about the schedule pacing?  Games 11-13 are interesting.  They host the Rams (1^st host since the blown PI call that cost New Orleans a Super Bowl appearance), go to SF and go to Tampa, who has had all kinds of issues vs. New Orleans and will be fully focused.  Cold weather could await the Saints 12/24 (Cleveland) and 1/1 (Philly).  This looks like a split at best.  The Saints close by hosting Carolina.  Not noted above is that New Orleans has a -8 rest day differential.  A perplexing team for me to handicap at the present time, the season win total is 8.5, and at least one 8 set.  My opening power # set is at 26.

TAMPA BAY: Tampa has a new coach, but like New Orleans, the hire was in-house.  Unlike the Saints, their rest day differential comes in at +8.  In other good news, they are home weeks 3-5 (GB, KC, Atlanta), and later they have a stretch that includes two home games, a game in Munich, and a bye week.  They’ll have ten days to plot out playoff revenge before facing the LA Rams, and other than 11/27 at Cleveland, avoid any potential bad weather games.  Not all the news is positive.  Games 1-4 are at Dallas, at the Saints, home to GB and home to KC.  The three teams Tampa faces that the rest of the Division will not face are GB, KC and Dallas.  The Munich game has them the designated home team, so they lose that 9^th true home game.  The five games right after their week 11 bye are tricky, with road games at Cleveland, SF and Arizona, and home games vs. New Orleans and Cincy.  Both the OL and the position of WR are weaker, and Tom Brady is not getting any younger.  Maybe this has an effect, but Brady looks great thus offseason, and there’s still plenty of WR talent.  The pacing of four of the five prime-time games is just fine.  Only once do I have a concern, that being traveling to SF after playing a Divisional MNF game.  Tampa’s win total is 11.5.  I initially set their opening Power # at 29.5, but am strongly considering moving it up to 30, although I do think they will take a loss or two early, having to play a trio of veteran/elite QB’s, (Dallas, GB, KC).

Continuing with the NFC West here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule

ARIZONA: All NFC West teams play the NFC South and the top Division in the entire NFL, the AFC West.  Both Arizona and the LA Rams have tough opponents in 2022 as compared to SF and Seattle.  Games 1-3 are vs. Pat Mahomes and KC, at former Cardinal Chandler Jones and the Raiders, and home to the Rams.  Games 4-9 are where Arizona can make some noise, even though WR Hopkins will miss the 1^st six games of the season.  Only the Eagles made the playoffs from these six opponents (Seahawks counted twice).  The Saints have to come to Arizona for the Thursday night game, while Arizona then gets extra rest before going to Minny (Vikings off a full bye).  I don’t think fatigue will be a factor with the mini-bye nicely paced, but the three games right before Arizona’s full bye are tough.  They visit the Rams, go to altitude (Mexico City) to “host” SF on MNF, then come home to face the LA Chargers with less time to prepare.  That game vs. SF is the 5^th of their six Divisional games, which is a bit of an issue if they need to make up some ground.  It’s also a bit unfair that a Divisional game is picked for the “neutral” site, which in this case favors SF.  Arizona hosts NE off the bye week (Pats also off a mini-bye), which seems like an unusual, but interesting prime-time game.  That again gives the Cardinals less time to prepare to go to Denver the following Sunday.  Closing games are vs. Tampa, and on the road at Atlanta and SF.  For a team that hasn’t played well late in recent seasons, I don’t like the setup.  The talent is fine, but this is an important season for both the Head Coach and the defensive coordinator.  Arizona’s season win total is mostly 9, with a couple places at 9.5.  My opening Power # set is at 27.

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Rosters don’t matter in LA.  During 2021, LA added Von Miller, Odell Beckham, Sony Michel and Eric Weddle, all critical pieces to get them over the hump.  LA has nine home games and seven “true” road games.  They are the designated “visiting” team vs. the Chargers.  As Super Bowl champs, LA opens the year at home vs. Buffalo.  SF will host LA week four (MNF).  SF will be out for revenge, which carries modest weight given that the game is a) early in the season and b) in prime-time as a standalone affair.  There could be a slight focus issue with a short week of preparation before hosting a decent Dallas team.  Following the bye, LA stays home again, wrapping up the 49er series with still ten games to go.  This is the tricky part of the schedule, with LA’s next three games at Tampa, home to Arizona, and at New Orleans, their 1^st return visit to the site where a bad referee call put LA, and not New Orleans in the Super Bowl.  LA’s uncommon opponents (teams the other Division rivals do not play) are Buffalo, Dallas, and GB, who they play on 12/19, at night, in potentially cold weather conditions.  The good news is that they have ten days to prepare, as they will have hosted Vegas on a Thursday night.  But these opponents contribute to LA having my 3^rd toughest schedule, based on Power #’s as they stand right now.  LA hosts Denver next, with once again a shorter time to prepare.  The final games are “at” the LA Chargers and at Seattle.  Note that Bobby Wagner is now an LA Ram, and he has already noted how he’s looking forward to playing his old team (12/4, and this one, back in Seattle).  How many other new Rams will be signed between now and next December?  LA’s season win total is 10.5.  My opening Power # set is 30.

SAN FRANCISCO: Is Trey Lance the starting QB?  Is Deebo Samuel a happy camper?  SF was unlucky vs. the LA Rams, and must refocus in order to take the next step.  My 1^st glance at their schedule reveals more positives than negatives, even with games vs. the tough AFC West.  1^st, the road game vs. Arizona will be played in Mexico City.  In the amazing, but true column, SF plays at the LA Rams on 10/25, and then does NOT have another true road game until 12/15 (Thursday night in Seattle).  This includes a week nine bye, four home games, and the game in Mexico City.  SF is likely to be favored vs. all three uncommon opponents they play (opening day at Chicago, and home games vs. Miami and Washington).  QB Lance can “ease” into 2022 with games 1-2 at Chicago and vs. Seattle.  As noted in the LA Ram section, SF will be raring to go with revenge on the minds for the week four MNF host of the Rams.  They may catch a small break hosting KC, with the Chiefs off an interesting game vs. Buffalo.  Their only two-game road stand is at Carolina and Atlanta, two teams not expected to be playoff contenders.  Note also that the game in Mexico City (game #10) is the last time SF will leave the West Coast!  That’s rare.  When SF hosts Miami (week 13), they will face their former offensive coordinator (now Miami’s head Coach) as well as RB Mostert.  Their last four games present no schedule traps.  They play at Seattle on a Thursday night, have extra time to prepare to host Washington, have one extra day before going to Vegas, and close the season hosting Arizona.  This really isn’t bad, so watch the roster leading up to the start of 2022.  SF’s season win total is mostly 10, with a couple shops at 9.5.  My opening Power # is set at 27.  Maybe that seems low, but QB Lance is raw.  My #’s project where a team is at on opening day, not at a later point.

SEATTLE: Things are different in Seattle now with Russell Wilson out of the building.  Of course, he will be IN the building week one, as his new team, Denver, comes here on MNF.  That should be exciting.  Like SF, the overall schedule is easier than Arizona’s or the LA Ram’s.  In fact, Seattle’s uncommon opponents are the NYG, the NYJ and the Lions.  In other good news, the game in Munich vs. Tampa was a scheduled road game, so Seattle maintains its nine-game home schedule.  Also, their week 15 Thursday night game is at home (vs. SF).  The only back-to-back road games are at Detroit and at New Orleans, which takes place 10/2 and 10/9.  The game before that is hosting Atlanta.  Games after the road outings are home to Arizona, at the LA Chargers and home to the NYG.  Pete Carroll is relishing the challenge post Russell Wilson and the early slate gives him a fighting chance to prove prognosticators wrong.  The trip to Munich is a long one, so the bye week will be welcomed.  Five of the last seven games look challenging.  They face the Rams twice, host Vegas and SF, and travel to KC.  Perhaps 2-3 isn’t bad in these games, as long as they played well in the 1^st half of the season, plus take care of business late hosting Carolina and the Jets.  In total, Seattle stays home four of the last five weeks.  Two other notes.  1^st, Seattle faces a few ‘softer” QB’s weeks 2-5 in Lance, Mariota, Goff, and Winston.  2^nd, the suspect OL might have some issues with the many very good pass rushers they will face, especially early in the year including Gregory (Denver, week one), Bosa (SF, week two), Cam Jordan (Saints, week five), J.J. Watt (Pitt, week six) and both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack (Chargers, week seven).  I’m pretty sure Seattle’s season win total opened at 6.5, but all I see now is 5.5.  Could that be my one OVER play?  We’ll see.  My opening Power # is set at 22.

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By Ron Marmalefsky – June 4, 2022

Starting with the AFC East, here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule.

BUFFALO: All AFC East teams square off vs the AFC North and the NFC North.  In addition, AFC teams will have only eight home games in 2022.  As a reminder, each Divisional team will play three uncommon opponents.  Buffalo’s three are not easy, as they travel to LA on opening night to face the defending champs in the LA Rams, host Tennessee, and play at KC, all in the 1^st six weeks!  Von Miller returns to LA to face the team he helped get to and win the Super Bowl.  Buffalo has the short week disadvantage when they play at Miami off MNF (9/25), but will travel to KC on 10/16 with the Chiefs off MNF, although KC stays at home for both games.  The bye week comes early, giving them an edge in game #7 when hosting a GB team who will be in their 2^nd of three consecutive road games.  Games 8-11 are vs. four teams that did not make the playoffs in 2021.  Notable here is that WR Diggs will host the team he began his career with (Minny).  The most “veteran” QB’s Buffalo will face in games 11-15 will be Tua of Miami and Goff of the Lions.  The other three games are vs. 2^nd year QB’s, which has to be a perk for this veteran team.  In an interesting twist, Buffalo will host all three Divisional rivals in three of the last five weeks of the season.  The other two games are at Chicago on a Saturday and at Cincy on MNF.  Despite the relatively tough schedule, the Bills have a +12 or +13 rest differential, best in the NFL.  They face ZERO teams off of a bye week.  Buffalo’s win total has held fairly firm at 11.5.  I HAVE set my Power #’s, which of course may change by September.  For now, Buffalo’s power # is 33, best in the NFL.

MIAMI: Miami was busy in the offseason, gutting their coaching staff, and reshaping the roster, especially offensively.  They were less active in the draft, adding only four players.  Games 1-4 are tough for the new staff.  They open vs. NE and former Dolphin WR Parker, travel to Baltimore, host Buffalo, and then go to defending AFC champ Cincy for a short week Thursday Night game.  How ready will the new staff and rebuilt offense be?  Miami is 0-7 their last seven games vs. Buffalo.  Having an early mini-bye might enable the staff to take a breath and regroup.  Up next are the Jets, Vikings and Steelers.  For Miami to contend, this has to be at least a 2-1 outcome.  The Steeler game has Minkah Fitzpatrick returning to Miami, the team that traded him after just one season.  Games 8-10 are at the Lions and Bears, and home to Cleveland.  Counting a host of Houston after the bye week, Miami has a top five “easy” schedule in games 5-11.  The going gets rough after that, beginning with three consecutive road games.  Head Coach McDaniel and RB Mostert 1^st travel to SF, the team he played for in 2021.  They stay out west to face the Chargers before heading to Buffalo to face the Bills.  With games 15-16 vs. GB and at NE, Miami’s staff will be severely tested.  The finale is hosting the Jets.  Miami’s win total is a steady 8.5.  My opening Power # is 26.5.

NEW ENGLAND: NE was the perfect team for a rookie QB to land with, and Mac Jones had a solid rookie season.  Year #2 will be interesting, with tape on Jones, a new offensive coordinator for the 1^st time in over a decade, and a tricky schedule.  The good news is that weeks 5-11 has them facing Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Indy, and the Jets twice, once after their bye week.  The toughest opponent might be Indy, and that’s a home game.  The short week game is at the Jets, with NE having hosted Chicago on MNF the week before.  The bad news is the rest of the schedule, plus a not so ideal -10 rest day differential.  Games 1-4 are at Miami (NE not a great history there), at Pitt, home to physical Baltimore, and at GB.  I think 2-2 is the ceiling.  NE also is on the road three of four weeks after they host the Jets on 11/20.  They play at Minny on Thanksgiving night, host the Bills exactly one week later, go to Arizona (MNF) with extra time to prepare and then stay on the coast with short rest to face Vegas on Sunday Night.  That’s four prime time games in a row, which has to create mental fatigue.  Somehow, that also feels like 2-2.  NE closes with home games vs. Cincy and Miami and a road game at Buffalo.  Expectations are not unusually high here, with their win total set at a modest 8.5.  I’m using 27.5 as their opening Power #.

NEW YORK JETS: Based on my opening Power #’s the Jets have the AFC East’s toughest schedule (5^th overall).  That, coupled with a -8 rest day differential might be a reality check for a team with a year two Head Coach and QB, and by all accounts, a top tier 2022 NFL draft.  The schedule is unusual in many ways.  At least five, and maybe six opponents will have extra preparation time before facing the Jets.  New York is also 0-12 lately in September, which has to change if they are to become relevant.  In another rarity, games 1-4 are all vs. the relatively tough AFC North.  At BEST, I see a 1-2 start.  Perhaps Pitt is the “easiest” of the four games, but that game is at Pitt, and the Steelers will be off their mini-bye.  So will Miami, their opponent in week five.  Games 6-9 are no easier.  They go to GB and Denver, then host NE and Buffalo.  This has a strong 2-7 ceiling look to it, and despite roster improvement, the Jets could be underdogs in all nine games!  The bye week will be welcome, but even then, NE has the same bye week, so the Jets get no rest differential edge.  After hosting Chicago, they go to Minny with the Vikings off a mini-bye, and stay on the road to face Buffalo, with the Bills avoiding complacency thanks to their own mini-bye.  HELP!  Finally, there’s good news, as games 14-17 are “easier”.  Does that come too late to have any real meaning?  These games are home vs. the Lions and Jaguars, and on the road at Seattle and at Miami.  For once the Jets have a scheduling edge with extra time before facing Seattle (and former safety Jamal Adams).  The Jets have lost their last six games at Miami.  The Jets opened with a win total of 5, but that number is rising (5.5 with juice).  My opening Power # is 20.5.

Continuing with the AFC North here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule

BALTIMORE: All AFC North teams play the AFC East and the NFC South.  Baltimore enters 2022 with three years of unfinished business.  Injuries ruined 2021 but the Ravens have to do a better job of finishing games.  No team has a bigger edge vs. their Divisional rivals than do these Ravens.  Their 4^th place schedule enables them to face Denver, Jacksonville and the NYG, teams that the rest of the AFC North will not face.  Baltimore opens with four straight games vs. the AFC East.  All four are regular Sunday starts.  The goal is 3-1, and a potential leg up on their rivals.  NBC picked a good game for week five, as Baltimore hosts Cincy.  The Ravens have double revenge, with Joe Burrow throwing for 525 yards in the December game.  I call it a perk when a team plays two games in the same road stadium.  Baltimore goes to the NYG week six, which is where they were week one when they faced the Jets.  While it’s not ideal to face Tom Brady and Tampa on a short week Thursday Night, it does give the Ravens eleven days to prepare for another road game, this one on MNF vs. the Saints, who will field a veteran team, but do so without Sean Payton.  The bye week is next, meaning there won’t be a short week off MNF.  If Baltimore plays well, they will be “flexed” to Sunday Night later in the year, but for now, the rest of the schedule is very nicely paced.  In fact, all road games are close in distance and they have just one set of back-to-back road games after the bye week.  Four of their last five games are vs. Divisional rivals.  They play at Pitt and at Cleveland, host Atlanta and Pitt, and close at Cincy.  Baltimore has a significant schedule edge over their Divisional rivals, and I have them to win the Division at +240 and +225.  Their win total remains 9.5, but it’s now juiced.  My opening Power # has been set at 29.

CINCINNATI: After going 6-25-1 in his 1^st two seasons Zac Taylor and Cincy had a breakthrough season, and the chemistry was clearly evident.  This is an ascending team with a good to great QB, but 2022 will be an enormous challenge in many ways.  1^st, Super Bowl losers have had difficulty the following season.  2^nd, expectations have been raised.  3^rd, forget about schedule pacing, as Cincy will have five night games (one last year).  Playing with less rest might be a challenge.  The challenge is even tougher as Cincy is the only NFL team that plays three Sunday Night games on the road.  Games 2-6 feature four road games.  The good news is after they host Miami on a Thursday, Cincy gets ten days to prepare for a Sunday Night game at Baltimore.  That’s a Divisional game, and Cincy has to regroup as they stay on the road to face New Orleans.  QB Burrow played in Louisiana (LSU) and has fond memories from that experience.  I’m not sure I’ve seen a team play three Divisional games on the road in prime time, but Cincy will play at Cleveland on MNF, and after a week ten bye, play at Pitt on SNF.  Again, that means Cincy has to refocus in a hurry, staying on the road to face a Tennessee team that has playoff revenge on their minds, and ten days to prepare to host the Bengals.  This starts a closing stretch with absolutely ZERO easy games.  After facing Tennessee, Cincy hosts another team with (double) revenge in KC.  Games 13-15 are hosting Cleveland, at Tampa, and at NE.  How does the season close?  They host Buffalo on MNF, and then have a short week to prepare for rival Baltimore.  In total, their final eight games are vs. teams that went a combined 83-52-1 last year.  I love how the team has been built, not with a quick fix, but with careful draft planning, targeting areas of need.  But I hate the schedule.  Cincy has win totals of both 9.5 and 10, and for me, asking Cincy to go 11-6 is perhaps too much.  My opening Power # is set at 28, and that’s consistent with peak 2021 levels.

CLEVELAND: Cleveland has had trouble when expectations are high, as evidenced by both 2019 and 2021 performances.  No one knows what realistic expectations will be for 2022.  The good news is that the roster is fairly deep, and it’s hard to find many, if any soft spots.  The bad news is what’s going on at QB, and who will start game one.  One thing is for sure: Cleveland has a golden opportunity to get off to a great start.  Games 1-4 are at Carolina, home to the Jets, home to Pitt on Thursday Night, and at Atlanta with ten days to prepare.  Cleveland reportedly has not started 2-0 since 1993!  Anything less than 3-1 would be a letdown no matter who is the opening day QB.  The nice schedule continues with home games vs. the LA Chargers and vs. NE.  Divisional games at Baltimore and home to Cincy (MNF) follow, right before the full bye week.  If they block out the noise, this could be in the neighborhood of 6-2.  Cleveland has no SNF or MNF games on the schedule unless they get flexed.  The pacing is ideal but I have concerns about each of their three sets of back-to-back road games.  For each trip, game #2 is the “marquee” affair.  Is there a letdown for the initial road game?  They travel to Miami before Buffalo, travel to Houston before Cincy, and travel to Washington before a week 18 game at Pitt.  I really can’t trust this team to be focused at all times.  The three home games in the 2^nd half of the season are vs. Tampa (Bucs off a bye), vs. Baltimore (Ravens off their usual tough affair vs. Pitt) and vs. New Orleans.  All eyes will be on this team in September, on the field as well as off the field.  There is no season win total for them at the present time (one place opened at 9, another was 10).  My extremely tentative opening Power # is set at 25.

PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh starts the post Big Ben era with either the toughest or 2^nd toughest 2022 schedule.  Here’s four interesting tidbits about their schedule.  1^st, this is the 8^th year in a row Pitt opens on the road.  Mike Tomlin is a veteran coach who can handle that, but why should he have to?  2^nd, all 17 of their games are in the eastern time zone.  That’s a nice perk.  3^rd, that means Pitt travels the fewest miles of any team, by far.  Finally, despite the absence of Big Ben, Pitt is still slated to play five prime time games.  Mike Tomlin’s remade offense (see 2022 NFL draft report) will open at Cincy, who swept them a year ago.  After hosting NE, Pitt goes to Cleveland for a short week Thursday Night game.  We don’t know who will be Cleveland’s QB but the situation won’t be easy for the Steelers either way.  The bye week is in early November, after Pitt travels to Miami on SNF and then goes to Philly, where they haven’t posted a road win since 1965.  They host Cincy on 11/20 on SNF and then play at Indy on MNF.  After that, the pacing is not in their favor.  They remain on the road to face Atlanta, a short week game that could see them in vintage “trap” mode, with rival Baltimore up next.  Any game after Baltimore is not easy.  Going on the road to face a Panther’s team likely out of the playoffs could become another focus issue.  The final three games are vs. Vegas, at Baltimore, and vs. Cleveland.  Always a great rivalry, the two Baltimore games this year are late, not beginning until 12/11.  Pittsburgh’s win total has been set at 7.5.  It’s a strange thing to say, but my opening Power # is just 23 for this great organization.

Continuing with the AFC South here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule

HOUSTON: All AFC South teams play the tough AFC West and the easier NFC East.  Houston is not expected to challenge for a playoff spot so they get a stable slate of afternoon game times, plus one Thursday night affair.  New Coach Lovie Smith has seven games scheduled vs. other new coaches.  Amazingly, six of those games are on the road, with only the home and home series vs. Divisional rival Jacksonville taking place on their own field.  I have more bad news for them.  1^st, only once will they play back-to-back home games.  That happens games eight and nine when they host Tennessee and Philly, with the Philly game being the short week Thursday night affair.  Not only will Houston play three teams off rest, their entire slate finds them with a -10 rest differential.  I don’t like that doubly, since this is a team that for the 2^nd season in a row has had over 50% roster turnover.  Chemistry will not be achieved all season long.  In “good news”, Houston will have six games vs. teams who, like them, come off a season with ten or more losses.  I do like the fact that both the full bye and the mini bye comes early, giving the staff a chance to make some adjustments.  On 9/25, Houston goes to Chicago, where Smith used to coach.  The home NYG will have a full bye week before hosting Houston on 11/13 (Houston has the mini bye).  Miami will have a full week off before hosting Houston on 11/27.  The 12/4 Cleveland game “could” be interesting.  It’s a home game, potentially vs. ex-Houston QB Deshaun Watson.  The toughest stretch of games will follow.  Houston will travel to Dallas, host KC, and travel to Tennessee.  Closing games are vs. the Jags and at Indy.  Houston has a win total of 4.5.  My opening Power # is the NFL’s lowest, at just 17.

INDY: Like Baltimore, Indy has the edge when it comes to scheduling as compared to its Divisional rivals.  Based on my opening Power #’s for each team, the Colts have one of the easier 2022 schedules.  What’s strange about their schedule is playing five of their six Divisional games in the first seven weeks, including the two games vs. last year’s top AFC team, the Titans.  They lost both games a year ago and will be out for revenge.  I’m a tad surprised that neither game is in prime time.  Indy and former QB Carson Wentz laid an egg in the finale vs. Jacksonville last year.  They have early revenge (week two), but must erase their 0-6 record at their place of late.  One bad aspect of Indy’s schedule is playing three road games on a short week.  They play at Denver on a Thursday night, at Dallas on a Sunday night, right after a MNF game vs. Pitt, and play at the NYG after playing the LA Chargers on MNF.  That seems a bit unfair.  Going back to the game at Denver, is that somewhat dangerous, sandwiched around three Divisional affairs?  Games nine through thirteen are dangerous for a number of reasons.  They start with a trip to NE, followed by a west coast trip to Las Vegas.  Remember that last year, Vegas upset Indy late in the year with Wentz feeling “sluggish” from Covid (his words).  Hosting dangerous Philly follows, before a MNF game vs. Pitt and the short week SNF game at dangerous Dallas.  What compounds matters is that Indy’s bye week is week 14, meaning fatigue could easily set in during this five-game stretch!  They key to this season is winning early inside the Division, and ensuring that games 14-17 remain meaningful.  If they are, the week 14 rest will be nice.  Indy closes at Minny, home to the LA Chargers on MNF, at the NYG with that 3^rd short week road game, and hosting Houston in the finale.  Indy and Tennessee have the same season win total of 9.5, maybe thanks to the easier Indy schedule, but for a variety of reasons, I have Indy with the higher opening Power # (28.5).

JACKSONVILLE: The Jags will have just seven home games by choice thanks to their annual London game.  This means they do not have back-to-back home games, will open the year with three of four on the road, and will have four of five on the road very late in the season.  They chose NOT to have a week off after the London trip, so their 1^st bye comes after week ten, which is not ideal for a new coaching staff, even if the coach has prior experience.  The mini-bye is even later, after 12/22.  At least Urban Meyer is gone, which for the players is refreshing.  Is 1-3 the ceiling at the start?  They go to Washington, host Indy (Indy week 18 revenge), go to play the LA Chargers, and stay on the road, heading to Philly, where Peterson used to coach and where he won a Super Bowl.  Games 5-8 are easier.  They host Houston, travel to Indy, host the NYG, and play Denver in London.  The seven games after the week 11 bye will be challenging.  The home games are vs. Baltimore, Dallas and Tennessee.  The four road games in that five-game stretch are at Detroit and Tennessee, and later, at the NYJ and Houston.  How much is the subtraction of Urban Meyer worth?  The team has more talent now and QB Lawrence is in year #2, but the schedule and all the road games (and the multiple game road trips) might be too much to handle.  The win total for the Jags has been set at 6.5.  In what may be a surprise to some, my opening Power # set is at 21, four full points above Houston.

TENNESSEE: Tennessee has been a model of consistency with all of their consecutive winning seasons but 2021 ended on a sour note.  They’ve played well under the lights (3-0 in 2021) and have four such games this year, beginning with an interesting game at Buffalo on MNF in week #2.  I expect a close game the following week hosting Vegas.  That’s a more important game then people may think, as up next is a game at Indy.  Translated, that means the Titans could start 1-3 if they don’t watch out.  The game at Washington is also tricky (especially coming off rival Indy), but certainly winnable.  I like the placement of the bye week next, which can get Tennessee back in focus, just in case there is a rough start.  Coach Vrabel is 4-0 off the bye week and the game happens to be vs. Indy, again.  Weeks 9-13 are challenging.  They play at KC on SNF, host Russell Wilson and Denver, who will be fully rested off their bye week, travel to GB for the short week Thursday Night affair, get extra rest before hosting Cincy, and finally, head to Philly.  Tennessee is recently 0-6 playing on the road on Thursday, so the game at GB will be tough.  The good news is that Vrabel is 4-0 after a Thursday game.  With playoff revenge as well (which only matters this late IF the team with revenge has time off to think about it), I expect maximum effort.  Here’s two additional notes about this stretch of games.  1^st, note that the Titan pass defense will face Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Burrow, all in a row!  Also, former WR A.J. Brown will be waiting after that when Tennessee travels to Philly.  Weeks 16-17 represent the only back-to-back home games for Tennessee.  Those games are vs. Houston and then Dallas in a rare, short week Thursday Night December game.  Tennessee closes at Jacksonville.  The Titan’s season win total is 9.5.  My opening Power # is “just” 27.5, at least for now.

Continuing with the AFC West here is my first look at each team’s 2022 schedule

DENVER: All AFC West teams play the AFC South and the NFC West.  Denver underachieved under former Head Coach Fangio, but spirits are high now with a new staff, a top tier QB, and a 4^th place schedule.  The networks certainly noticed the arrival of Russell Wilson, as Denver is on prime time in an amazing four of the first six weeks.  Why not start 2022 at Seattle on MNF, where the crowd will be electric?  Luckily, an emotional Wilson and Denver will host Houston next, but even with one less day to prepare, that’s the best opponent they can hope for.  Next comes SF on SNF, followed by a game at Vegas, who is on a winning streak vs. the Broncos.  Denver hosts Indy on Thursday night, enabling them to have extra time off before playing at the LA Chargers on MNF.  Once again, Denver is lucky that the short week which follows not only is for a home game, but is also vs. a supposed lower tier opponent in the NYJ.  Designated the road team in London helps, as does the opponent, Jacksonville.  Denver is off after the London trip, giving the new staff both the mini bye and the full bye early enough in the season that adjustments can be made.  The pacing is better after the bye, although the opponents are challenging.  Games 12-17 are difficult.  It starts with a trip to Baltimore, which comes after a road game at Carolina.  Next up is KC.  It’s at home, on SNF, and the 1st of two vs. the multiple year AFC West champs.  For Denver, it’s an opportunity to erase a 13-game losing streak vs. KC.  Staying home after that helps, but they must remain focused as they face Arizona.  The final three games are at the LA Rams, at KC and home to the LA Chargers.  Denver has a legit QB and a likely upgrade at Head Coach, but the challenges on the field include navigating that top heavy opening prime time schedule as well as facing the toughest closing schedule in all of the NFL.  Denver’s season win total is mostly 10, but there is a stray 10.5 or two, which seems high.  My opening Power # set is at 27.

KANSAS CITY: KC has had an outstanding four-year run, but 2021 ended on a sour note as the Chiefs blew a big lead and allowed Cincy to win the AFC title.  The AFC West got much stronger in the offseason, but the staff is intact and Mahomes is the QB, so let’s not write this team off.  Still, the parade of QB’s KC will face in 2022 is quite daunting.  Just in games 1-6 they will face Murray of Arizona, Herbert of the LA Chargers (Thursday Night), Matt Ryan and his new Indy team, Tom Brady and Tampa at their place on SNF, Derek Carr and Vegas and finally, Josh Allen and the revenge-minded Buffalo Bills.  They’ll also travel to SF after playing Buffalo.  This feels like 4-3 or even 3-4, not unlike a year ago when KC opened a (predictable) 4-4 before asserting themselves after that.  The week eight bye is ideally placed, enabling KC to refocus.  In the past, KC’s defense has had issues stopping Tennessee’s ground game.  Andy Reid is masterful with rest, and I give KC the edge in this Sunday Night affair.  Games 10-13 are vs. four more stout QB’s (Herbert and Wilson again, plus Stafford and Burrow).  No wonder KC’s schedule grades out as either the toughest or 2^nd toughest based on my Power #’s.  KC is “blessed” with a three-game road stretch that includes playing Burrow, Wilson (SNF) and then Houston.  Will playing Houston in that 3^rd game be somewhat distracting?  KC closes by hosting Seattle and Denver, and then going to Vegas.  Often streaky, KC will be tough to beat if the Divisional title is on the line.  Their win total is at 10.5 and in some places, 11.  My opening Power # is set at 31.

LAS VEGAS: Vegas had a nice run in 2021, which not so ironically happened after Jon Gruden was fired.  Under Gruden, there were too many highs and lows.  The roster is clearly better, but the schedule is rough, and last year’s record was somewhat misleading with all their close wins.  The start is immediately tricky.  The five games before their bye week begins with a date at the LA Chargers, who will be out for revenge from that crazy final regular season game this past January.  Can they focus the next week when Chandler Jones and the Raiders face Arizona, his former team?  Games 3-5 are at Tennessee, home to Russell Wilson and Denver, and at KC on MNF.  I feel as of 6/1 that 2-3 is the ceiling, despite the roster improvement.  The early bye week once again is a nice thing to have for a new staff.  Following Houston, Vegas plays four of their next five games on the road.  Do they stay on the road after playing New Orleans, with Jacksonville up next?  Later, they play at Denver and then at Seattle.  Occasionally better playing on the road than at home, Vegas must live up to that mantra to remain alive in the playoff race.  The schedule however remains unforgiving.  After hosting the Chargers, Vegas plays three straight prime time games.  They are at the LA Rams on Thursday Night, have ten days to prepare to face Josh McDaniel’s old team (NE) on SNF, and finally travel to Pitt for a Saturday Night game.  Their closing games are at home, but the opponents are SF and KC, certainly no slouches.  The good news is that only the game at Pitt on 12/24 might be played in cold weather.  The bad news is that there is no easy stretch in the entire schedule.  Most places show Vegas with a season win total of 8.5, with the outlier being a stray 8.  The brutal scheduling start to the season has to be concerning.  My opening Power # is set at 26.5.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Is this the year LA stops shooting themselves in the foot (think special teams) and reaches the playoffs, perhaps by winning the AFC West?  The roster looks good, but will the coaching staff make the right game winning decisions in crunch time, something that did not happen a year ago?  Opening with two Divisional games is interesting.  Game #1 is immediate revenge vs. the team that eliminated the Chargers in overtime last year (Vegas).  Game #2 finds them heading immediately to KC for a Thursday Night game.  LA has a win opportunity in each of the next five games, with the toughest two of the group being a date at Cleveland, followed by hosting Denver on MNF.  LA plays four of the 1^st five games after their bye week on the road.  Like Las Vegas, LA has played well on the road.  The goal is to achieve at least a record of 3-2 in this stretch, which includes road games at Atlanta and SF (SNF), a home game vs. KC, and road games at Arizona and Vegas.  One thing that has to change is their home performance.  Too many times the stadium is filled with more fans rooting for their opponents.  Games 13 and 14 are home vs. playoff contenders Miami and Tennessee.  Going just 5-4 at home (and worse than that in the past) can no longer be an option.  The final three games are very tricky.  They travel to Indy for a MNF game, have the short week of preparation before “hosting” the Rams on SNF, and close the year at Denver.  For the Ram game, it’s not a true home field advantage as the two teams share the same stadium.  The Denver game could be played in inclement weather.  At least that’s probably the only threat of bad weather on their schedule.  LA has a season win total of 10, but a handful of shops are at 10.5.  My opening Power # is set at 28.5, a full two points higher than Vegas.

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