Hump Day MLB 100% Highest Rated Blowout System Wins by average 4 runs. NHL in a Big run. Tonight a Double System Dominator in Game 1. Afternoon Soccer and The French Open Semifinals play in Tennis. MLB Totals Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Under 7.5 runs in the Minnesota at Detroit game at 7:10 eastern, The game applies to the powerful 78% totals system below which pertains to home dogs off a home dog win scoring 4 or less runs and a Prior home dog loss scoring 3 or less if the opponent, the Twins in this case scored 1 or no runs on less than 4 hits. The Twins have gone under 4 of 5 vs a lefty and have Ober going and he has a solid Era and has allowed 1 or less earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Skubal for the Tigers has a 2.44 Era and in his last 3 home starts has allowed just 3 earned runs spanning 19 innings. Detroit has gone under in 7 of 9 a home vs a righty. Look for this game to stay under. On Wednesday a powerful card is up with a 6* MLB Blowout from a Perfect system winning by over 4 runs on average. We also have the Double system NHL Game 1 Power System Play as well as Afternoon Soccer and the Ladies Semifinal at the French Open in tennis. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the Hump day play. Go under in the Twins at Tigers game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
O/U: 2-9-0
Jul 10, 2005 recap Sun 2005 home Giants Noah Lowry-L Cardinals Jeff Suppan-R 3-4 -1 L -2.0 U 13-10 1-0 1-3 145.0 9.0 9
Jul 22, 2007 recap Sun 2007 home Nationals Tim Redding-R Rockies Josh Fogg-R 3-0 3 W -6.0 U 6-7 0-0 3-0 110.0 9.0 9
Apr 03, 2014 recap Thu 2014 home Reds Homer Bailey-R Cardinals Lance Lynn-R 6-7 -1 L 5.5 O 10-11 0-1 3-4 -110.0 7.5 9
Apr 25, 2015 recap Sat 2015 home Phillies David Buchanan-R Braves Shelby Miller-R 2-5 -3 L -0.5 U 6-9 0-1 2-3 105.0 7.5 9
May 31, 2016 recap Tue 2016 home Mets Steven Matz-L White Sox Mat Latos-R 4-6 -2 L 2.5 O 8-9 2-2 4-2 -175.0 7.5 9
Aug 02, 2017 recap Wed 2017 home Padres Luis Perdomo-R Twins Ervin Santana-R 2-5 -3 L -1.5 U 4-7 1-0 0-4 -105.0 8.5 9
Jun 28, 2018 recap Thu 2018 home Phillies Aaron Nola-R Nationals Tanner Roark-R 4-3 1 W -1.0 U 9-7 0-1 3-1 -130.0 8.0 9
Aug 25, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Marlins Wei Yin Chen-L Braves Anibal Sanchez-R 3-1 2 W -3.5 U 6-9 1-0 3-0 155.0 7.5 9
Sep 15, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Giants Madison Bumgarner-L Rockies German Marquez-R 3-0 3 W -4.0 U 8-7 1-0 3-0 125.0 7.0 9
Sep 22, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Marlins Jose Urena-R Reds Anthony DeSclafani-R 5-1 4 W -1.5 U 7-6 0-2 5-0 100.0 7.5 9
Apr 12, 2019 recap Fri 2019 home Giants Drew Pomeranz-L Rockies Chad Bettis-R 3-2 1 W -3.0 U 8-11 2-0 1-2 -140.0 8.0 10
Jun 01, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Tigers Tarik Skubal-L Twins Bailey Ober-R 100.0 7.5
It’s fucking June, let’s goooo! Bikinis, hot dogs, summer baseball, and a lot more wins! Added 2 NBA Finals series futures, too- let’s get it.
NBA Finals, Game 1 (and futures):
Full Game Over 211, 1.5 units
Warriors 1Q -0.5, 1.5 units
Curry wins MVP (+110), 1 unit
Warriors win series 4-3 (+400), 1 unit
Game 1 is at the Chase Center and the Warriors will be WELL RESTED heading into this contest. The best way for them to take advantage of the Celtics’ lack of rest and get a win? Up the pace, small-ball the hell out of their defense and space them out, and run the floor in transition. I lean Warriors full game, too, and like them even more early. I may have more plays on this game -settling into these two wagers for now. Let’s go!
As far as the Curry MVP add, if the Warriors win, it’s VERY likely that he’ll be the MVP. The talk is already all over the media; things like, “How important is it to Curry’s legacy that he wins an MVP?” Shit like that. The table is set and GS winning it straight up is juiced up to -150 at most books. We also like the 4-3, seven game series scenario for the Warriors. They have home-court advantage, haven’t lost at home, they have a significant experience edge, and this is an important moment for their dynasty and its legacy. The Celtics are extremely feisty so I have little doubt that they’ll push GS to their limits.
MLB Picks:
Mets -1.5 (-126), to win 2 units
The Mets are on a tear and Washington’s limping lineup will be backed by a minor-leaguer today, against NYM’s best thrower. Yea, that ain’t fair. Some may call it square, we’re fucking betting on it.
Yankees -1.5 (+110), 1 unit to win 1.1 units
This is a similar situation than the one above, only Reid Detmers might be even worse than a minor-leaguer right now. His LOB rate, HR allowance, subpar fastball and fading FIP (5.01) are not ideal marks against a confident Yankees lineup and Nestor Cortes, who’s been LIGHTS OUT so far this season.
White Sox ML (+117), 1 unit to win 1.17 units
Michael Kopech (1.29 ERA, 78.4% LOB rate, 0 HRs allowed in 42 IP) has been a nice early surprise for Chicago thus far. Ryu is dealing with elbow issues and his command has really dropped. We expect him to improve his marks as the season wanes on but this isn’t the spot – taking the road dog.
What a start to the Western Conference Finals with Colorado beating the Oilers 8-6 in an absolute barn burner. The Avalanche looked to have a comfortable lead heading into the third when the Oilers scored twice to made it a one goal game late. Colorado was able to hold on and take a 1-0 Series lead. The total was set at 7.0 in that matchup which is something I’ve only seen once before, and that was earlier in the post season this year.
The New York Rangers, who I’m still not sold on, advance to the Eastern Conference Finals to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Rangers have won two Game 7’s to start the playoffs beating Pittsburgh and most recently Carolina. Igor Shesterkin has been unbelievable following some struggles in the first round. He leads the playoffs with a +11.4 GSAx barely edging out none other than Andrei Vasilevskiy (+11.0).
The Lightning had some struggles in the first round but were able to beat the Leafs in 7 games. In the second round they only needed four games to beat their interstate rival and come into the Eastern Conference Finals well rested. Despite missing Brayden Point in their last series, the Bolts showed no signs of slowing down and look to be a serious contender for winning their third Stanley Cup in a row.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers
The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to New York to take on this young Rangers squad. These teams have matched up three times during the regular season. Shockingly, the Rangers won every one of those games. In all three of those games, the Lightning went off as the favorite with the total being set at 5.5 in the majority of those matchups. Despite the low total, the under hit in two of those three games.
The main storyline for this series is Igor Shesterkin vs Andrei Vasilevskiy. After going 1-2 to start the post season, Shesterkin is now 7-3 with a 2.09 GAA and .939 SV%. Just like Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy struggled a bit in the start of the playoffs. Since game seven in the first round, Andrei Vasilevskiy is undefeated going 5-0 with a 0.80 GAA and .978 SV%. Shesterkin looks to be the clear winner of the Vezina Trophy this season with Vasilevskiy looking to repeat as the Conn Smythe winner.
When I look at Game 1 of this series it’s a tale of two stories. The Rangers last Eastern Conference Finals appearance came back in 2015 and oddly enough it was against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts would go on to defeat the Blue shirts that year before losing in the Stanley Cup. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been in this spot the past two seasons and advanced to the finals both times.
The Lightning one of those teams that have been to the playoffs enough and know when to turn it on. Their a veteran group with plenty of depth that just seems to know how to win when it matters.
New York on the other hand has a young core led by a netminder who’s only in this third season. The Rangers kind of remind me a little bit of Montreal last year but with more offensive firepower. Despite their lack of experience in the post season, they’ve proven they can handle the bright lights winning a pair of seven-game series.
PICK: [1U] TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-125) – BETMGM
PICK: [1U] NYR/ TBL UNDER 5.5 (-110) – BETMGM
Despite losing all three games against the Rangers in the regular season, the Lightning transform into a different team in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s veteran lineup had the ability to rest up for a few extra days and should be ready to go. New York on the other hand only had one day off but the Rangers young lineup should be able to handle the quick turn around. This is a tough game to predict as New York has continuously proven people wrong in the playoffs however, I think their run ends here. They should give Tampa Bay a good series but I think they’re outmatched in every area and Tampa Bay goaltender that can matchup with Shesterkin.
By no means do I think this game will be a blowout which why I also like the Under 5.5. Given the recent run these netminders had, it’s hard to imagine we see a Game 1 like Colorado/ Edmonton. The Rangers faced sub-par goaltenders in the first two series but have their work cut out for them against Vasilevskiy in this matchup.
Tampa Bay is only averaging 2.45 GA/GP with New York not far behind averaging 3.00 GA/GP. The Rangers have had some solid offensive production but again, I don’t think will see that against this Lightning team who plays very solid defensive hockey. The Rangers have relied on their Power Play to propel them past the first two rounds but the Lightning have one of the best penalty kills this post season and should be able to limit their production.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
After Scottie Scheffler’s first missed cut of the season, he followed it up with a great performance at the Colonial despite losing to Sam Burns in a playoff. Burns captured his third victory of the season with Scheffler just missing out on grabbing his fifth win in ten starts. If Scheffler had won, he would have become the first player since Tom Watson in 1980 to win five PGA Tour events before June.
Last year we saw chaos unfold on the 18th green on Saturday as Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID test. Rahm was six strokes clear of the field and looked to be on his way of winning back to back titles here. Instead, we saw Patrick Cantlay defeat Collin Morikawa in a Playoff to win his second title at Muirfield Village. There’s plenty of storylines this week so we should be in for a great event.
Tournament Information:
Dates: June 2nd, 2022 – June 5th, 2022
Location: Dublin, Ohio, United States
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,533 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 120 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Bentgrass .090″
Fairways: Bentgrass .375″
Rough: Kentucky bluegrass / ryegrass / fescue 4”
Stimpmeter: 11.0
Purse: $12,000,000 / Winner $2,160,000
FedEx Cup Points: 550
Bunkers: 68
Water Hazards: 13 (In-Play on 13 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Scoring Average:
2021: 72.97 (+0.97), Rank 10 of 51
2020: 74.01 (+2.01), Rank 2 of 41
2019: 72.08 (+0.08), Rank 13 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus/ Desmond Muirhead (1974)
Sunday: Partly Cloudy 72 F, 6 mp/h SE, 50% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Memorial Tournament was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus, who was also one of the original architects of the course. Nicklaus spent his early years in Columbus so this course, which is just 20 miles north, holds a special place in his heart.
Muirfield Village has hosted the tournament since its debut. In 2020, Muirfield Village hosted two back to back tournaments due to COVID scheduling conflicts. The first event was the Workday Charity Open and the following tournament was the Memorial Tournament. Collin Morikawa defeated Justin Thomas in a playoff in the Workday Charity Open and then lost to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff a week later.
Following those two events, the course underwent a rather large renovation. They lengthened the course from 7,392 yards to the current yardage of 7,533. In addition to length, they also increased the difficulty by adding some new greenside and fairway bunkers. Most of the greens have reconstructed as well with new bentgrass.
The Memorial Tournament is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
Most tournament wins: Tiger Woods (1999, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012)
72-Hole Record: 268, Tom Lehman (1994)
18-Hole Record: 61, John Huston (Round 2, 1996)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Muirfield Village is one of the tougher courses on Tour as seen by the previous years scoring average. Like most Nicklaus designs the fairways are a little wider than Tour average. However, the rough is very penal as it’s 4″ long which can make those approach shots that much tougher.
The difficulty of this course comes into play on the second shot. The greens are extremely small compared to the Tour average which makes scrambling one of the key stats this week as players are bound to miss more the green more than normal.
Last year we saw the majority of the scoring come from the Par 5’s. All four of the Par 5’s played under par along with just one other hole, #14.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Par 5 Scoring
Scrambling
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The Field/ Odds:
As usual, we have a great field for this weeks event. Seven of the top-10 players in the OWGR are set to take on Muirfield Village. Patrick Cantlay, who has won this event twice, looks to join Tiger as the only other player win this event in back to back years.
If you’re looking at props, I would look at taking this week to end in a playoffs. Five of the last eight Memorial Tournaments have ended in a playoff.
Jon Rahm (+1000), headlines the field as he should be looking for this third win in a row here. He was forced to withdraw here last year due to a positive COVID test so we’ll see if the Golf Gods redeem themselves this year. Rahm recently won his first event of the year at the Mexico Open but struggled in the PGA Championship a few weeks later finishing T48.
Rory McIlroy (+1100), is next in line in terms of odds. McIlroy has been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top-10 in his last three tournaments. He’s played here numerous times but his best finish came back in 2016 when he finished 4th. In his past two appearances at Muirfield he finished 32nd in 2020 and 18th the following year.
Patrick Cantlay (+1700), is a two time winner here but enters this event off a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Despite his poor recent form, Cantlay seems to love this course. He’s played in the Memorial six times and has finished inside the top-10 in four of those appearances.
Xander Schauffele (+2000), who won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Patrick Cantlay a little over a month ago has been playing some great golf. Following that win, he finished T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and T13 at the PGA Championship. He also has had some success at Muirfield Village. Schauffele made his debut at the Memorial in 2018 when he missed the cut. Since then he has finished 14-13-11 in this event.
Previous winners in the field; Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Dufner, David Lingmerth, Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar.
Notable Withdraws: Harry Higgs
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Morikawa had a great run at Muirfield Village last year. He won the Workday Charity Open then finished runner up in the Memorial the following week. Morikawa has yet to win on Tour this season but has finished second twice. He’s made the cut in his last seven starts headlined by a 5th place finish at the Masters. Given the course comp to Augusta along with his course history, he should have a great shot to win his first event of the season.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick is another guy this year that hasn’t won an event on Tour. He’s really found his game finishing T2 and T5 in his last two starts. Fitz has made played at Muirfield Village four times headlined by his T3 at the Memorial in 2020. His approach play and short game make him an ideal candidate for this course. When looking at his strokes gained, there’s no real weakness in his game. He’s not particularly long off the tee but does hit a ton of fairways and should set himself nicely for his approach shot.
Will Zalatoris (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Zalatoris hasn’t been the model of consistency but when he’s on, he’s on. He missed the cut at the Charles Schwab last week but finished T2 at the PGA Championship the week prior. In his last five solo starts on Tour he has missed the cut twice and finished T6 or better in the other three events. He checks the box in every major category this week with his putting being the lone concern. Based off of strokes gained he seems to be turning things around and if he can get the flat stick going this week, he should be a contender come Sunday.
Mito Pereira (+5000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Mito followed up his collapse at the PGA Championship with a T7 finish at the Charles Schwab. He hasn’t played Muirfield Village before but we’ve seen several players win their debut here. The main concern for Mito this week is his short game and putting. That being said, he’s gained strokes around the green in his last five starts and when he does gain strokes putting he has a shot of winning as we saw at Southern Hills.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.12 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Jordan Spieth (+115) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
These odds are under priced based on every other major book who has this line at -105/-110. Spieth has found his form as of late and returns to Muirfield Village, a place he’s had moderate success at in the past. Jordan struggled a bit at the PGA Championship after finishing 1-2 in his two events prior. However, he rebounded well at the Charles Schwab last week finishing T7. He’s played in this event nine times before and has finished inside the top-20 six of those times.
Patrick Reed (+220) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.50 to win 1.10 Units
Patrick Reed has struggled a bit this year after his return from injury/pneumonia. However, he mentioned last week that he’s felt better about his game and the results have reflected that. In his last two events he finished T34 at the PGA Championship and T7 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Reed finished 10th in 2020 and 5th in 2021 at the Memorial which was his best finish at this event in six appearances.
Chris Kirk (+230) – Pointsbet/ DraftKings
Risk 0.50 to win 1.15 Units
Kirk has been in form lately finishing inside the top-20 in his last two starts. He’s finished T5 at the PGA Championship and T15 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Chris Kirk ranks well in terms of SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green. His putting isn’t great but he has gained strokes in that category in the past two events. Kirk finished T26 last year at Memorial but given his recent play, I like for him to improve on that placement this year.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Unit
Just missed the card but I also really like Max Homa Top 20 (+165) – PointsBet. He finished T6 here last year and has really found his game. Homa has the distance off the tee and a great iron game. His short game play hasn’t been as consistent this year but gained strokes in that category last week.
Picks (Top 40):
Anirban Lahiri (+140) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Anirban Lahiri has really found his form as of late making the cut in five of his last six starts on Tour. His lone missed cut was the PGA Championship but, over the course of those six starts he finished inside the top-20 in four times. During that stretch he placed lone 2nd at the Players Championship and T6 at the Wells Fargo Championship. Lahiri has played at Muirfield Village four times before, making the cut every time. Starting in 2016 when he made his debut these were his finishes; 61-2-37-52. He hasn’t played here since 2019 but his 2nd place finish in 2017 proved he can have success here.
Danny Willet (+260) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 1.30 Units
Prior to missing the cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Danny Willet was playing some pretty good golf. Even with that missed cut, he has finished inside the top-40 in three of his last five starts. Willet isn’t a bomber or approach specialist by any means but he is great around the greens which is crucial this week. In his three appearances at Muirfield Village he has finished T32nd or better in every start.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.50 Unit
Total Risk on The Memorial Tournament: 4.62 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
A 2-0, +2u Monday brings me to +13.26u over the last 22 days! I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays for tonight looking to put a bow on what’s been a great month. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays -1.5(+130) vs White Sox–6:07 PM CT
Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman is having a Cy Young caliber season for the Jays; while his ERA at 2.25 is a good indicator of that, a FIP at 1.31 is better proof Gausman is pitching at that elite level. In addition to striking out 10.5 batters per 9 innings, Gausman has issued just 5 walks this season while only allowing 1 home run. The White Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching all season and will be without their 3 most important bats tonight(Anderson, Jiminez, Robert). White Sox SP Lucas Giolito is a steady arm, but he’s facing a Blue Jays lineup that seems to be rounding into form. Over their last 5 games, the Jays are averaging 7 runs/game, which included an 11 run output against the Angels on Sunday. Toronto’s bullpen might be only slightly above average, but they have a clear advantage over a White Sox ‘pen that ranks just 25th in Bullpen WHIP. In addition, the Sox are without 2 key bullpen pieces in Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly. I think Gausman deserves the “Corbin Burnes treatment” given his excellence dating back to last year, and I’m not afraid to play against a White Sox team that is really beaten up at the moment. I like the Jays to make it 6 straight and win this game comfortably.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 ML(-120) vs Padres–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright is simply a guy I want to back in his home ballpark. The veteran righty held a 2.74 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Busch Stadium last year, and even at 40 years old, I think his pitching style will continue to yield good results in that ballpark. While the Padres pitching has held them up this year, their offense ranks just 27th in OPS vs righties and is averaging just 2.6 runs/game over their last 7. Padres SP Blake Snell has had a ton of success pitching in Petco Park, but he held some of the worst road numbers in the league last season(6.12 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 in 60.1 innings). In his lone road start this year, the lefty allowed 3 runs in 3.2 innings in Philadelphia; until we see a strong reversal in this trend, I’m going to continue to look to play against Snell in his road starts. To make matters worse, the Cardinals rank 1st in OPS vs left-handed pitching this year. This will remain a F5 play for me given the Padres do hold the bullpen advantage, but this is the exact spot I’m looking to back St. Louis in. I’d play this up to -130.
*MLB(1u): Rockies ML(-125) vs Marlins–7:40 PM CT
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a disastrous start to the 2022 season, but his reputation across the last 5 seasons is enough for me to overlook that. Marquez has acclimated himself to pitching at Coors Field in recent seasons, and he gets a relatively easy matchup tonight. The Marlins put up just 1 run in a pretty favorable matchup against these Rockies yesterday and rank just 25th in runs this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies are averaging 6 runs/game in their home ballpark and will face a very vulnerable arm in Edward Cabrera. Cabrera had horrible numbers across 7 starts last year(5.61 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) and will make his season debut in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. While the talent is there, Cabrera has major control issues and also allowed 2 HR/9 at the big league level last year. While Miami has a better bullpen in most spots, we saw them completely implode in this unique environment yesterday. Additionally, the Rockies ‘pen has performed better in their home ballpark this year. I want to buy low on Marquez today and back this Rockies team in a role they’ve become accustomed to excelling in.
NFC NORTH: The NFC North might be the worst division in the whole NFL this year thanks to massive regression from the Chicago Bears and the bad play last year of the Detroit Lions. The Packers sit a top of everything for now, but the Vikings are going to make a case this year if Kevin O’Connell can get them going. There is two brand new coaching staffs in this division creating a lot of uncertainty. The good news is that the NFC North has it easier getting the NFC East and the AFC East in their schedule. The division should be able to feed off of the Jets, Commanders, and the Giants, but there is a chance that the bottom of this division could be as bad or worse.
1. Green Bay Packers Win Total: 11
2021 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 9.79
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs LA Rams, @ Tampa Bay and vs Tennessee
Schedule last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: WR Davanta Adams, WR Marquez Valdez Scantling, Edge Za’Darious Smith, G Lucas Patrick, CB Kevin King
Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, DT Jarren Reid, P Pat O’Donnell,
Who they drafted: ILB Quay Walker, DL Devonte Wyatt, WR Christian Watson and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: I see that Rogers should be somewhat happy now that he got super-paid again, but it did cost his team Davanta Adams who had to be traded to the Raiders along with a few other studs. Green Bay lost a decent amount of talent this year to free agency, but at least Za’Darius Smith only played 2 games last year anyways. One thing that I really like from the Packers is their draft. Green Bay got the wide receiver that I thought that they might pick in the 1st round and ended up scoring him with their 3rd pick in the draft. The Green and Gold also got the best linebacker in the draft in Quay Walker, and maybe even the best three technique in Georgia’s Devonte Wyatt. Packers might not miss a beat if their receiving core re-develops. Also, keep in mind that TE Robert Tonyan will be back from injury.
MY Season Number: 11.4
Action: No Play
Packers Power Rating: 5.75
2. Minnesota Vikings:
Win Total 9
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.96
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs @ Philadelphia, vs Arizona, vs Indianapolis
Schedule Last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: Coach Mike Zimmer and staff. TE Tyler Conklin, C Mason Cole, S Xavier Woods, OLB Nick Vigil
Key Additions: Coach Kevin O’Connell, DC Ed Donatell, Edge Za’Darious Smith, DT Harrison Phillips, ILB Jordan Hicks, G Chris Reed, T Jesse Davis
Who they drafted: S Lewis Cine, CB Andrew Booth, G Ed Engram and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Minnesota will be a very interesting team to me. New head coach Kevin O’Connell had enough time to learn under Sean McVey of the Rams. The problem is that we still remember the 3-13 season that he had as OC with the 2019 Redskins. Was his time with McVey enough to turn the corner? New DC Ed Donatell is a career assistant but has also been in the Fangio System since 2009. Lots of upside here. The Vikings drafted defensive secondary help in Georgia safty Lewis Cine, and Clemson’s cornerback Andrew Booth. Let’s not forget what they got in edge rusher Zadarious Smith from free agency. Love that! Also, Daniel Hunter should finally be healthy and he missed most of last year’s season so that will be huge. It’s all about what we get with QB Kirk Cousins who tends to disappoint, but this is the year he has to make it happen with a plethora of weapons. I will be cautiously optimistic on this team and I think that they make the playoffs.
My season number: 9.48
Action– Lean over but bet them to make the playoffs
Vikings Power Rating: 2
3. Detroit Lions: Win Total – 6.5 juiced to the over
2021 Wins: 3.5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.24
Schedule: – Easy – At large games vs Seattle, @ NY Giants, vs Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Jalen Reeves-Mabin
Key additions: S Deshawn Elliot, WR DJ Chark, LB Chris Board
Who they drafted: Edge, Aiden Hutchinson, WR Jameson Williams, Edge Josh Pachal
Summary: Year two for the fiery coach Dan Campbell. The Lions were very quiet in free agency in both gaining, and losing guys. According to football outsiders, this Lions team was the 3rd most injured last year and I expect some positive regression. One thing that worries me some is that even though this was a pretty good draft class for Detroit, they really missed out in getting some good linebackers, and another needed defensive tackle to help stop the run in which they ranked 25th in opponent rush EPA and 28th in rushing yards per game. They also won’t get Alabama Wide Receiver Jameson Williams until closer to October which won’t help them at the start. The good news for this team is that they should have a pretty easy fourth place schedule with fellow tomato cans such as Seattle, The NY Giants, and Jacksonville to play against. The Lions really should have won about 5.5 games last year according to their Pythagorean win total. I think they get about 7 wins this year. Goff better make something of those make shift receivers until Jameson is up and running.
My season number: 6.87 wins
Action: Lean over 6.5 wins
Detroit’s power rating: – -4.5
4. Chicago Bears – Vegas Win Total 6.5
2021 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 6.56
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games San Francisco, @ Atlanta, Houston
Key Losses: Coach Matt Nagy, LB Danny Trevathian, Edge Kahlil Mack, DT Akiem Hicks, G James Daniels, WR Allen Robinson, QB Andy Dalton, WR Jakeem Grant, DT Bilal Nichols
Who they drafted: CB Kyler Gordon, S Jaquan Brisker, WR Velus Jones and a bunch of dudes
Summary: No team has went through quite as many big changes as the Bears did this year. This team has a new coaching staff, new GM, young quarterback and they traded the face of the franchise in Khalil Mack. I would really love to be optimistic for this team, but it’s hard to do so when the guys at the top are still the same guys that failed over the last 50 or so years. The Bears got rid of their best offensive piece in Allen Robinson and quarterback Andy Dalton who basically ended up being just a distraction. Six wins is what the Bears had last year and I am not optimistic that they can even match that with much less to work with. The Bears signed a bunch of below average guys in free agency, and drafted a bunch of no-names. This Bears team could be the Houston Texans from last year. I see a very low floor and a low ceiling here. I have them at 5.73 wins.
The Memorial Day Comp Play is on Houston at 4:10 eastern. The Astros fit a powerful divisional system that pertains to road favorites off a road favored win vs an opponent like Oakland that is off a home dog win and scored more than 5 runs. In fact the Astos are 6-1 vs a team that just scored 5 or more runs and they have won 20 of 26 as a favorite. Oakland is 7-19 as a home dog and 7-17 vs divisional teams. Valdez is pitching for the Astros and has a solid 2.83 Era and they have won his last 4 starts. Blackburn has allowed 7 runs in 7 innings in 2 starts vs the Astros. Look for Houston to take the opener. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
I have netted +11.26u over the last 3 weeks and am looking to start the new week off strong with 2 winners. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers TT OVER 5.5(-120) @ Cubs–12:05 PM CT
Cubs SP Matt Swarmer will be making his major league debut in some brutal conditions today; the wind will be blowing out 15 mph to left-center field on a sunny day in Chicago. The Brewers offense doesn’t step up in competition very well, but this offense routinely takes advantage of mediocre right-handed pitching. Dating back to last season, this is an offense that also swings the bat well on the road. While Swarmer held a sub-1.00 WHIP in Triple-A this year, we know that doesn’t mean much as to how he’ll fare at the big-league level. The Brewers put up 8 runs in St. Louis yesterday, 6 of which came off Miles Mikolas(who held a sub-2.00 ERA entering that start). Additionally, the Cubs used 3 of their back-end arms(Effross, Givens, Robertson) each of the past 2 days, so none of those guys are likely to be available this afternoon. The Cubs bullpen has overperformed this year to begin with, and without 3 key pieces, I don’t trust some of their lesser arms in this matchup. I’ll overpay a bit and isolate the Brewers offense on a day where the ball should be flying out of Wrigley with relative ease.
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Marlins–3:10 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has been lights out over the last 2 seasons at home, but those numbers plummet drastically on the road. He held a 4.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP away from home last year and now enters arguably the toughest matchup this league offers a starting pitcher. Coors Field is a well-known hitters park, and today, the wind will be blowing out nearly 20 mph towards RF. Because of these conditions, the Rockies offense holds the best home numbers in the league, scoring nearly 6 runs/game at Coors this year. While they tend to struggle mightily on the road, the Rockies mustered together 18 runs across their 4 game set in Washington over the weekend. By their standards, they enter this game in good current form. Lopez has also struggled in each of his last 2 starts, allowing 3 HR’s against the Rays last week after lasting only 3 innings against the Nationals before that. After a hot start to the year, the Marlins bullpen(like the rest of their team) has proven to be a pretty mediocre unit; in this tough of a spot, I don’t mind being against them one bit. Throwing out 4.5’s on a Rockies TT when they’re at Coors Field is borderline ridiculous. I’ve made over 8u on my action in Rockies games this year, and I expect to add to that after a good offensive performance from them today.
Happy Memorial Day, people! Well last night’s game 7 was frustrating for a number of reasons, but the NBA Finals should be a damn good battle. In short, I think Boston might not know what they’re in for. The Heat gave them a lot of those games – let’s see how the small-ball offense of Golden State does against the swarming defense of the Celtics. I’m definitely leaning towards another title for the Dubs. Onto today’s picks:
NBA Finals Game 1:
Full Game Over 211, 1.5 units
Warriors 1Q -0.5, 1.5 units
Game 1 is at the Chase Center and the Warriors will be WELL RESTED heading into this contest. The best way for them to take advantage of the Celtics’ lack of rest and get a win? Up the pace, small-ball the hell out of their defense and space them out, and run the floor in transition. I lean Warriors full game, too, and like them even more early. I may have more plays on this game -settling into these two wagers for now. Let’s go!
MLB Picks:
Giants/Phillies under 9 (-120), to win 1 unit
The Giants pitching talent is too good to allow this kind of offense consistently – we expect regression from their defense and Gibson hasn’t been terrible. I think this game flies way under.
Athletics (+148), 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Oakland got off the proverbial schneid last night and now they welcome the commanding Valdez and the Astros to their ballpark. Houston is the favorite for a reason but Blackburn (1.70 ERA) has been fantastic over 47 innings. Value on the home dog.
Red Sox/Mets ML Parlay – 1 unit to win 1.42 units
The Red Sox are in a groove and Rich Hill is steady, Peterson has been excellent and ya know, fuck Fedde.
NHL Picks:
Rangers/Hurricanes under 5.5 (-140), 1.4 units to win 1
This is mega-juiced but for a reason – it’s win or go home and only game 6 eclipsed 5 goals in this series. After a melee of scoring by New York, I expect Carolina’s defense, and the pressure of the moment, drives this way under. An alt total under it’s a bad look, either.
Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks +103 O/U 8.5
Well I must say that this line smells. Feels kind of short with one of the lesser teams close to even money against the world series champions. I think all that you need to know is written in this line. Zac Gallen takes the helm for the snakes today boasting a 2.22 ERA and a 2.8 FIP over 44 innings. 8.66 K/9 innings. That is some darn good stuff. On the other hand, Spencer Strider has sliced his way into the league like he is some king in the Lord of The Rings boasting a massive 2.22 ERA and a 1.45 FIP over 24 innings. 13.44 K/9 innings is quite impressive for the young lad. Atlanta’s hitting has fallen off this year only ranking 17th in wRC+ while Arizona ranks 24th respectively. This game is played in a controlled climate at Chase Field so it’s all about the pitching today. Now Arizona’s bullpen is 4th worst in the league in FIP so I do not trust them, but what I do trust is these pitchers to get to the 6th inning with a pretty good performance and a very low score. I am taking the 1st 5 under the 4.5
1st 5 under 4.5 -110 – 2 stars
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