Hey all! We’re taking the day off from baseball after another solid day – 3/4 of those dog leans I mentioned hit. I only took one personally (the Cubbies), dumb.
Sticking with our bets on the NBA – enjoy your Sunday!
Celtics/Heat Game 7:
1Q under 48.5, 1 unit
Full game over 197.5, 1.5 units
Heat Win Eastern Conference Future (+475), Alive and Well
Remember when I took that future on Miami to win the East? Well she still has a heartbeat! What an amazing turnaround performance by the Heat. Lowry, Strus, PJ, Bam, and most of all Jimmy Butler came out on fire in Boston. And when Butler plays with that sort of confidence and aggression, he’s absolutely elite. I hope he can put on a repeat performance Sunday.
I think the totals are the best bets in this one, though. The early parts of these contests have started tremendously slow as of late, and nothing gets more contentious than a Game 7 in Miami. Expect a ton of turnovers, blocks, and physical play that prevents much scoring in the first 12 minutes. For the full game, with the amount of foul calls we’re seeing and the desperation of the moment, I think the second half pushes it over this crazy low full game total.
Sunday card has the NBA 100% Eastern Conf. PLAYOFF Game of the Year backed with an Undefeated Historical system. Headlining the MLB Card is the 100% ESPN Total of the Month. MLB Comp play below
The MLB Comp platy is on Minnesota at 2:10 eastern. The Twins will look to get the finale here and they fit a powerful game 4 of a series system that pertains to divisional home favorites off a home favored loss. The Twins are 5-0 on Sundays and 14-3 as a home favorite. KC has lost 19 of 26 off a win and 6 of 8 on Sundays. KC has lost 23 of 30 vs a team that allowed 5 or more runs. Greinke goes for the Royals and he is 0-3 with a 4.53 Era. Gray for the Twins has been solid. They have won his last 4 starts and he has a 2.60 Era. Look for the Twins to win. On Sunday the Highest Rated NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year headlines in Game 7 action with a huge historical system. A powerful MLB Card is also up along with the ESPN Total of the Month from a Perfect totals system. Both Top plays cashed out on Saturday. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on Facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the MLB Comp play. Make it Minnesota. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Seeing majority of money to the over in this lower totaled division matchup which is surprising given Logan Gilbert is pitching well and Urquidy only allowing 1 ER in his last outing against the Rangers. I do like the Astros RL in this game but won’t hit that too hard as Urquidy is only 1-3 against the Mariners, but will note that Gilbert is only 1-2 against HOU. So I’ll look to the over in this primetime game tonight. SEA is 12-7-1 O/U so far at home this season. HOU has been profitable to the under on the road where they are 7-19 O/U. Gilbert against HOU is 2-1 O/U and Urquidy is 3-1 O/U facing SEA. Mariners are getting healthier getting Kyle Lewis and Haniger back into the outfield with something to prove and Astros off a 6-1 loss. I expect offense from both of these teams tonight and will take the chance this one gets over.
Two plays going in TOR/ LAA game tonight and some looks on the Davis/ Romero fight at the Patreon.
TEMPE, AZ - FEBRUARY 25: Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels smiles during the Spring Training game against the Cincinnati Reds at Tempe Diablo Stadium on February 25, 2020 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Masterpress/Getty Images)
Toronto Blue Jays vs LA Angels -112 O/U 8.5
This should be a fun Saturday game in Orange County California and the line says that both of these teams have about a 50% chance of winning. The Angles on paper look to be the better team at 27-20 with a +45 run differential while the Blue Jays are 25-20 at -3. For some reason the betting market is still holding on to Toronto. I think part of this reason is that Shohei Ohtani wasn’t in the lineup on Friday with a soar back, and Anthony Rendon went on the DL with a wrist injury. Even with one or both of these guys out, I think that there will be some hits here. Both pitchers are pretty equal in FIP with Toronto’s Kikuchi at 4.35 and LA’s Lorenzen at 4.08. Pretty mediocre. I think that the Angles side might have some value here but the total looks more appealing. Both of these bullpens are below average with Toronto’s ranking 18th in the league in FIP while LA ranks 20th. Both teams hit very well with the Angels ranking 2nd in wRC+ and Toronto, even being at average this year, has plenty of power in this lineup. The wind today at Angels stadium is blowing out to left center at about 8 MPH. Take the over 8.5 runs.
The Miami fucking Heat, huh? Unreal. The table was SET for Boston. We’re getting a nice break in NBA action today, but we already have our play. A nice Friday in MLB- ya love to see it! Let’s get to it:
Celtics/Heat Game 7:
1Q under 48.5, 1 unit
Full game over 197.5, 1.5 units
Heat Win Eastern Conference Future (+475), Alive and Well
Remember when I took that future on Miami to win the East? Well she still has a heartbeat! What an amazing turnaround performance by the Heat. Lowry, Strus, PJ, Bam, and most of all Jimmy Butler came out on fire in Boston. And when Butler plays with that sort of confidence and aggression, he’s absolutely elite. I hope he can put on a repeat performance Sunday.
I think the totals are the best bets in this one, though. The early parts of these contests have started tremendously slow as of late, and nothing gets more contentious than a Game 7 in Miami. Expect a ton of turnovers, blocks, and physical play that prevents much scoring in the first 12 minutes. For the full game, with the amount of foul calls we’re seeing and the desperation of the moment, I think the second half pushes it over this crazy low full game total.
MLB Picks:
Guardians/Tigers first 5 under 3.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Bieber is coming into his own and this Faedo dude has real potential. Although not all of his marks are exceptional, Faedo has a big 6’5″ frame, throws a 93 mph fastball, and has a 88% LOB rate over 21 innings. The mediocre Cleveland offense can be stifled, lord knows, and I like Bieber to dominate the porous lineup of Detroit, too.
Watch out for the Marlins, Cubs, Rays, and Diamondbacks today
All 4 of these dogs are a part of games with funny lines, in my opinion, and I think there’s a good chance we could see quite a few winning straight up.
Parlay: Giants/Mets ML, 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Two better teams, one coming off a bad loss and the latter with a superior pitcher at home – I’ll capitalize on both to win + money.
UCL Final:
Liverpool in Reg (+180), 1 unit
This is a @BohBohBets special and I’m tailing. Liverpool has been on a rampage all year and now their opponent is talking shit – just like Boston, the table is set for Liverpool to put an emphatic exclamation point on a fantastic season. Let’s go!
Happy Memorial Day weekend everyone. We have finally made it to the UEFA Champions League Final, which takes place Saturday 3pm Est. between Liverpool and Real Madrid. I personally always call this the Super Bowl of European soccer, so needless to say I am beyond amped. Had a decent run this soccer season ending slightly over +5 Units. With this Finale let’s press that action and hit big!
Current Soccer Record: 67-74 +5.74 Units
Liverpool ML (+107) 1 Unit
Liverpool To Lift the Cup -170 2 Units
Over 2.5 (-130) 2 Units
As stated previously this week, I believe Liverpool is on a MISSION. They were recently edged out by the impressive Man City for the Premier League Championship, finishing just 1 point below them on the table. Liverpool was able to obtain the Carabao Cup and FA Cup Final. The clean sweep of the 4 championships this season is off the table, but 3 out of 4 is nothing to bat an eye at. Of all the championships this is the cherry on top for Liverpool, the best in all of Europe. It is a must win, anything less is a disappointment for the talent of this club.
It is no secret that Real Madrid does not shy away from the UCL final, as they have lifted the cup 13 times dating back to it’s European Cup days. They are certainly up to the task and already showed they can handle any adversity thrown their way. Coming from behind in the 90th minutes scoring 2 goals in a minute span to tie Man City in aggregates, forcing extra time. Ultimately winning in extra time, you have to feel this type of battle-tested club will not shy away in the moment.
I think we are going to see a heavyweight style-boxing match if you will; both teams exchanging blows. The pace will be fast and scoring will not be limited. We recently saw Liverpool against Chelsea in the FA Cup Finals, although it ended in a 0-0 score the opportunities were in abundance. Liverpool presses the issue, but allows them to be vulnerable on the counter, which plays well into Madrid’s hands. With this fast pace, level of talented goal scorers on both sides, and nothing to hold back for either club. I really like the OVER to hit in this spot.
By this point it is no secret I like Liverpool to win this match, but I do believe in leaving us an out. Just like we did for the FA Cup, hoping to double dip by taking Liverpool in both regular time and just incase it does go to extras we are still live to lift the cup. Match prediction 3-2 Liverpool.
Still +11.36u over the last 18 days, I’m rolling with a pair of plays tonight looking to start the weekend off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox TT OVER 5.5(+100) vs Orioles–6:10 PM CT
It’s not too hard to see why the Red Sox are an easy team to back at the moment. After a sluggish start, this team has scored 7.5 runs/game over their last 15 games. They put up 16 last night against the White Sox and also put up 16 on Tuesday in Chicago. Tonight, they’ll return back home to hitter-friendly Fenway Park and will be greeted by a favorable 16 mph wind blowing out to LCF. Orioles SP Kyle Bradish has allowed at least 1 HR in each of his 5 starts this year and holds a poor 5.05 FIP. While the righty was effective in his start against Boston earlier this year, he only managed to strike out 2 Red Sox batters in 6 innings. The lineup he’ll face tonight is almost incomparable to the lineup he faced earlier this season. While the Orioles bullpen has been above average this year, I don’t think that’s sustainable. In any case, the Red Sox are a clear “bet on” team at the moment, and I’m not sure even the best pitching staff in the league could hold this lineup down in their current form. Rather than trust Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock in a role he’s yet to settle into or a shaky Red Sox pen, I’m going to isolate the Red Sox offense and expect their success to continue tonight.
Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson might hold a 3.60 ERA, but that is extremely misleading. Hudson holds a shaky 1.35 WHIP, has a high hard contact rate above 35%, and is striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings. His FIP near 5.00 is much more reflective of the quality of pitcher he is. The Brewers managed to rack up 10 hits against Adam Wainwright last night, and I expect them to carry over that success into tonight against a very attackable arm. While I like the way the Cardinals stack up against left-handed pitching, their effectiveness plummets against righties. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff has held a WHIP below 1.00 each of the past 2 seasons and has allowed just 2 ER over his past 2 starts. Woodruff also strikes out well over a batter per inning and has good career numbers against the meat of this Cardinals lineup. I think the SP disparity is far more sizable than this line would indicate. Rather than lay a huge price, I’ll take the Brewers on the F5 run-line.
Friday card has a Rare MLB Executive LEVEL TIER 1 Play, an NBA Platinum Supreme Play and the N.L. Total of the Month. NHL Play below.
The NHL play for Friday is on St. Louis at 8:00 eastern. We will take a shot with the Blues here tonight as they cashed for us as a big road dog on Wednesday. Now tonight they will look to even up the series at home. We note that road teams that have won game 1 and lost game 2 at home while winning games 3 and 4 on the road followed by a game 5 home loss are just 1-4 in game 6 in round 2 historically. Also of note is that playoff road favorites off a home favored loss at -220 o r more are under .500 if they were off a prior road favored win. Look for St. Louis to play hard and get a break through win at home. On Friday Rob Storms into Memorial Day weekend with an Executive Level TIER 1 in MLB Action along with his 100% N.L. Total of the Month and an NBA Platinum Supreme move. Rob cashed out in NBA and MLB Last night. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we get the weekend off fast. For the NHL Ply. Go with St. Louis at +150. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLWWL @ HHVVH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLWWL with site order HHVVH (Colorado) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2022 NBA Quarterfinals and NHL Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 21-4 (.840)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Quarterfinals round: 6-2 (.750)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 15-3 (.833)
series record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 4-1 (.800)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 11-14 (.440)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Quarterfinals round: 1-7 (.125)
Game 6 record, NHL only, all rounds: 8-10 (.444)
Game 6 record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 1-4 (.200) Colorado
FINALLY, the return of @BohBohBets on Laying the Points! My best bud and fellow Circa winner Steve Norman joins me on today’s pod to not talk about baseball, basketball, or any other sport – it’s ALL NFL baby! Check out our initial thoughts on the Week 1 lines and look forward to another wild year of NFL betting action with your two favorite dudes!
Chris is 67-49 (58%) for +14 units in the NBA playoffs – check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
Happy Friday, good people! Our NBA hot streak continues – let’s do the same in MLB today too, eh?
NBA Picks:
Celtics -8.5, 1.5 units and
Heat/Celtics over 201, 1 unit
Welp, I think this series is over. Miami looks banged up, slow, and not nearly as confident as they should be. Jimmy Butler isn’t aggressive enough on offense, Bam reluctantly drives into the paint, and it’s uncertain if their 6th man of the year Tyler Herro can play tonight. Boston’s defense and offense was locked in Wednesday and I don’t see any reason why I shouldn’t expect the same tonight. Ime Udoka deserves sooooo much credit for the turnaround of this team, especially their mentality. Boston is turning into a squad that knows they can beat any team in the association, and that’s a dangerous, dangerous thing. Since I think this has blowout potential, I like the over, too. Miami chases, they might even lead early, but the Celtics should conquer in the long run and cover.
MLB Picks:
Reds TT over 19.5 – just kidding
Guardians/Tigers first 5 under 3.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Bieber is coming into his own and this Faedo dude has real potential. Although not all of his marks are exceptional, Faedo has a big 6’5″ frame, throws a 93 mph fastball, and has a 88% LOB rate over 21 innings. The mediocre Cleveland offense can be stifled, lord knows, and I like Bieber to dominate the porous lineup of Detroit, too.
Red Sox -1.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Boston’s offense has been red hot and in May they lead MLB in wRC+ (weight runs created plus, a stat that accounts for weighted factors like venue, ERA, etc.). Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish is young and able but he’s allowing way too many slugs – not a great thing in a ballpark like Fenway. All Sox for me.
Mets (-155), to win 1 unit
Bailey Falter is built for relieving duties and we still don’t trust the Philly bullpen. Carrasco has been used like an ace, averaging nearly 6 innings per start and returning solid numbers for today’s home-team Mets (0.58 HR/9 innings, 2.94 FIP, 73% LOB rate). This is a great setup for New York.
Blue Jays ML (-120), to win 1 unit
We were big fans of Alek Manoah since the jump and now I’m feeling a little genius for it. Check out his stats and you’ll see why. The commanding big man leads his team off a really impressive win against Ohtani last night. Now they face the young Chase Silseth, who’s shown good skill in the early going but his lack of experience against the big-hitting-power of the Jays? – I’ll bet on the away team.
