Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals 7:05 PM ET
The Rockies are visiting DC after coming off a disappointing series loss to the Pirates. The Nationals continue their home stand after losing 2 of 3 to the Dodgers. Both of these teams are looking for a rebound, and I think they could get it here, especially with the bats.
This matchup is all about the pitching, or lack thereof. German Marquez and Patrick Corbin have both struggled mightily to start the season.
Marquez comes into this game with a .375 BAA, .378 wOBA, and .394 BABIP on the road so far this year. His FIP is a little more respectable at 3.01, but the xFIP is at 4.03.
On the other hand, Corbin hasn’t been any better. Corbin comes into this game with a .278 BAA, .380 wOBA, and .350 BABIP. His 5.10 FIP and 4.54 xFIP aren’t anything to write home about either.
Marquez has yet to give up a home run on the road, but that’s in a small sample size with just over 9 IP. With that being said, he’s giving up a lot of medium and hard contact at 63.6% and 21.2% respectively. He also gives up a lot of walks (4.66/9 IP), and not a lot of strikeouts on the road (7.45/9 IP).
Corbin is allowing 14.3% of his fly balls to leave the yard. He’s also giving up 45.3% medium contact and 40.6% hard contact rates. His strikeout rate goes up at home (10.32/9 IP), but so does his walk rate (5.16/9 IP).
I’m expecting both of these guys to get hit around the yard tonight as Cron, Soto, and Cruz can put up some crooked numbers, especially if they start walking guys.
While I saw a dip yesterday, I still remain +12.71u over the last 17 days. I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays tonight looking to add to what’s been a great month. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Royals F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Twins–6:40 PM CT
Twins SP Devin Smeltzer will be making his second straight start against the Royals, a spot I believe favors the opposing offense greatly. While Smeltzer did allow only 1 run in 5.1 IP against these Royals last week, he failed to strikeout a single Kansas City bat in that outing. With a fastball that seldom reaches 90 mph, Smeltzer leaves himself little room for error, which explains why he has failed to establish himself at the big league level. The Royals aren’t a good offense by any means, but they did score 11 runs in their 2 game set in Arizona earlier this week and should be fresh coming off an off day. I think the full game TT should come through as well, but I want to isolate the matchup I like most and trust the Royals offense to get some quick revenge on a vulnerable Smeltzer tonight.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals ML(-120) vs Brewers–6:45 PM CT
While these teams match up very evenly, the stars seemed to be aligned for the Cardinals to take care of business tonight. Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has been nails at home throughout the entirety of his career, and that has carried over into 2022. The Brewers have been mediocre against right-handed pitching on the road this year and mustered together only 8 runs in their 3 game set in San Diego earlier this week. While they faced some high-caliber arms in that series, things won’t get any easier for them facing Wainwright tonight. Brewers SP Eric Lauer has looked lights out in 2022(2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP), but this is a nightmarish matchup for the young lefty. The Cardinals lead the league in OPS vs left-handed pitching, and that OPS skyrockets to .908 at Busch Stadium. While Lauer is a swing-and-miss arm, the Cardinals have the 4th lowest K% against left-handed pitching this year. I also think this particular situation heavily favors the Cardinals bullpen, who had yesterday off. In contrast, the Brewers have needed Devin Williams to throw each of the past 3 days and in general dug deep into their ‘pen in that San Diego series. Closer Josh Hader is away from the team for personal reasons, and I have seen no indication he’ll rejoin the team tonight. I want to back St Louis when Wainwright is pitching at home or when they’re facing a lefty arm; we happen to be getting both tonight. Throw in the fact the Brewers will be without Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader(as of now), and I think all signs point towards St Louis starting this 4 game set off with a bang.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox/White Sox OVER 9(-120)–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Dallas Keuchel is absolutely atrocious. With an ERA at 6.60, a WHIP at 2.00, a H/9 at 12.6, and a K/9 at 4.8, you cannot convince me Keuchel deserves to be getting starts at the major league level. The Red Sox offense came back down to earth last night, but a matchup against Keuchel is incomparable to a bout with Lucas Giolito. Prior to last night, the Sox were one of the hottest offenses in the league; I don’t think one off night against an All Star caliber arm is enough to keep me off of them tonight. In addition, the White Sox dug deep into their bullpen to close out last night’s game. Liam Hendricks will almost certainly be unavailable tonight, which spells trouble for a ‘pen that ranks 23rd in bullpen WHIP and has seen little effectiveness from their middle relievers. With all that said, I think we’re going to see Red Sox SP Michael Wacha regress in a major way in tonight’s start. While Wacha holds a 1.76 ERA, a FIP of 4.32 is much more reflective of the quality of pitcher he is. Away from Tropicana Field last year, Wacha held a 5.61 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and allowed 1.8 HR/9. The White Sox have failed to figure out right-handed pitching this year, but given their effectiveness in that role last season, I still trust them facing an arm I think is due for a blowup start. While the Red Sox bullpen has been more effective as of late, they are certainly capable of blowing any lead you give them. I believe getting this total below 10 is an absolute bargain. While weather is a concern tonight, I want action on this Over if this game is played in its entirety.
Trying to come up with savvy ways to say how annoying baseball is but my morning brain ain’t working – I’d curb stomp MLB if I could. How’s that?
2-0 in the NBA is nice, though. Today’s game is hard.
NBA Picks:
Parlay: Warriors 1Q ML and 1Q under 55.5, 1 unit to win 1.94
I found a few angles to consider betting tonight; I just don’t feel very confident in any of them as single plays. But I do like the above parlay. Firstly, the fact that Golden State is rightly predicted to win this game by some margin means that the tempo and production will be set by the home-team Warriors. In other words, Dallas will likely play catch-up throughout this contest. That being said, I’m not overly confident that Golden State can blow them out. Once the Mavericks find a rhythm they tend to keep it – just look at what they did in multiple elimination games against the Suns. So I think this game could be closer than people realize. What the Warriors have been consistent at is getting off to a hot start after they blow one of those road games where they could’ve ended the series. The Dubs defeated Denver and Memphis by margins of 4-5 points in the 1Q of those next games. Steph Curry sounded LOCKED in in his post game conference after their last defeat, admitting that they need more urgency in these situations. That’s especially true at the start of a game. I think the total is still too high – these two talented defenses (and the Mavericks slow pace) in a crucial game should be tenacious from the jump, and so far only one 1Q has eclipsed that mark, which was much more due to an absurd Dallas’ shooting start in game 2. The average total 1Q score: just over 50 ppg. Let’s get a parlay and get the hell out of dodge!
MLB Picks:
Yankees (3-way) First 5 ML (+116), 1 unit
I’m gonna keep believing in Nestor Cortes – he’s been sensational – and love em or hate em, these Yankee-hitters are a top 5 offense for a reason. I don’t think Tampa can hang early if Nestor continues his rampage.
Braves ML (-110), 1.1 units to win 1
The Braves lineup has settled in at home and Nola hasn’t found his groove just yet. I love ATL to keep sluggin’ and winnin’ on their turf.
We have a great show for you today! Steve Norman @BohBohBets comes on to break down the UEFA Champions league finals between Real Madrid and Liverpool. First, Kiev talks a little bit about his vacation in Cabo San Lucas and what to expect if you go there yourself. Next, he gets into a huge NFC North preview going over his numbers on season wins as well as where each team is power rated. Which teams are losing the most in free agency? Which programs had the best drafts? How are the schedule’s shaping up? There is a nice FREE PLAY in there as well. After that, Steve comes on to talk about his love for soccer and some of the plays that he has made in the premier league. Next, Steve talks about the HUGE Champions league finals and gives us a strong lean on a side that he might be playing. Finally, Steve talks about his favorite team the Philadelphia Eagles and his early thoughts on how the line is shaping up for their vs game at the Lions. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreeakers.
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The Brewers and the Padres will be wrapping up their series in San Diego today. Left handed Aaron Ashby will be the starter for the Brewers, it is worth noting that Ashby has pitched 14.2 innings out of the BP and 13.2 innings as a starting pitcher with three starts. The lefty owns a 4.71 ERA on the road and a 3.12 FIP with a .327 BABIP; Ashby more than likely will not pitch deep into this game. Yu Darvish is one of the best home pitchers in all of baseball, 1.37 ERA at home this year versus 5.81 on the road. Yu owns a low home WHIP of 0.66 and opponents are only hitting .145 off of him at Petco Park and in nearly 20 innings pitched, Darvish has only given up one walk. The Brewers offense ignited for a little bit but are now back to struggling with their bats over the last three games where they are in the bottom half of the league for scoring. Over the last thirty days the Milwaukee bullpen has been outstanding as they rank in the upper third in the MLB for K/9, HR/9, and FIP. The Padres offense has been underperforming as of late but do see lefties a bit better than they do right handed pitching. Overall, the pitching should prevail. Take under 7.5
The Oakland Athletics and the Seattle Mariners are meeting for an AL West battle. These two teams are towards the bottom of the divisional standings and both teams are starting one of their more reliable starters today. Oakland is 18-27 this season overall while the Mariners are 18-26. Paul Blackburn is starting for the Athletics and has been elite on the road, he owns a 1.37 ERA as the visiting pitcher. On top of a strong ERA, Blackburn has a 0.95 WHIP on the road as well as a 1.91 FIP on the road. Robbie Ray, a left handed pitcher, is starting for Seattle. Ray is not the Cy Young pitcher we saw last season but he has been seeing some positive regression as of late and is a solid home starter while averaging 2.00 less runs at home than he does on the road. Robbie Ray owns a 2.84 FIP on the year, more positive regression should be coming his way. Both of these offenses have been cold as of late and honestly have just struggled all year long. Oakland gets a downtick in production when facing a left handed pitcher. Both bullpens are average but the Mariners BP has struggled a lot at times, so we will be leaving them out of the equation today. Take F5 under 3.5
Ben Katz, resident of South Florida and Miami Heat expert, joins me on Laying the Points to talk about Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals! Check out the pod!
Chris is 64-49 (57%) for +10.25 units in the NBA playoffs – check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
Coming off a 3-1, +2.2u Tuesday, I am now +14.7u over the last 16 days! I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to add to what’s been a great month for us. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners TT OVER 3.5(-125) vs Athletics–3:10 PM CT
The Mariners are in very good current form offensively; over their last 7 games, the M’s are averaging 5 runs/game. While A’s SP Paul Blackburn looks dominant on paper, I do not suspect that to hold up for much longer. He showed signs of regression in his last start against the Angels(8 baserunners in 4.2 IP), and he carries an alarming hard-hit rate of 36.4% while only striking out 7.23 batters per 9 innings. T-Mobile Park tends to favor pitchers, but with a wind of 15 mph blowing out to CF on a sunny afternoon, I think hitters will hold the advantage today. 3.5 is the wrong number to begin with in this matchup when you contextualize Blackburn’s hot start and account for the Mariners’ current form offensively. I’m willing to lay a little extra juice at this number.
Braves SP Charlie Morton is a guy I’ve been able to trust routinely for the last few years, but he hasn’t impressed me this year. In addition to holding a 1.45 WHIP through 8 starts, Morton is striking out 2 batters less per 9 innings than he did last year. The Phillies are a “boom or bust” type of offense, but they are scoring 5 runs/game over their last 4 and put up 10 hits in Atlanta last night. Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has seemingly identical numbers to Morton, but the lefty holds a hard-contact rate under 20% and has run into some tough luck early in the season. Last year, Suarez held a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP; while he’s almost assuredly not going to match those numbers in 2022, I think he’ll start trending more in that direction over the rest of the season. The Braves offense is inconsistent(if not mediocre) against left-handed pitching and rely very heavily on the long ball to produce runs. Unlucky for them, Suarez allowed just 0.34 HR/9 last year and, as I mentioned, limits hard contact. Given the Braves hold a significant bullpen edge, I will isolate the F5 here and sprinkle on the Phillies in a spot that I think should be much closer to a pick’em price.
Hump Day Card has a TOP MLB Platinum Supreme Move, a Double Perfect NBA Side, top Total cashed big in NBA Last night and another NHL Historical system. MLB Comp play below
The MLB Comp Play for Wednesday is on the Cincy Reds at 6:40 eastern. The Reds are 6-2 at home vs a team under .500 on the road and have Castillo going. The Cubs fit a play against system for road dogs that are off a road win scoring 10 or more runs and a prior road favored win scoring 6 or more runs. These road teams lose 75% of the time long term. Hendricks has lost 4 of 5 here and has a 4.89 era. Look for the Reds to take this one. On Wednesday Rob brings the Bang with a TOP MLB Platinum Supreme move, an NHL Historical System play and after last nights Top Totals Winner in the NBA We have the 2X Perfect Game 5 Side. See us on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the Comp Play. Take Cincy. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Nice night Tuesday! Brunson decided to stop scoring but our NBA ATS plays went 2-1 and we had a 2-1 night in MLB, too. Ya love to see it.
As we near the end of the NBA season, a friendly reminder to consider future season passes – don’t miss out on this discount! PS: we included a French Open parlay at the end of this email.
NBA Picks:
Heat 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
Full Game under 203.5, 1 unit
This is a really tough game to handicap, but as always we look for patterns of group behavior and I think we found a few. Firstly, the Heat are at their best when they win in the 1st quarter; they’ve won 7/10 of their postseason games when they’re victorious after the first 12 minutes, and that’s not something they’ve practiced well against the Celtics. Boston has led at the end of the 1st quarter in 3/4 contests so far. Miami isn’t built for gigantic comebacks and they know it. Expect Spoelstra to have an attacking game plan from the start of this game. Herro or no Herro, I expect Jimmy Butler, Bam and a crew of starters that only totaled 18 points in game 4 to start off with ruthless aggression. And when the Heat play at their best early, they usually set the tone for the majority of the game. Combined with the nerves and pressure that this game will present, along with the many nagging injuries and the talent of these two defenses, this screams under. I’m only going for a 1 unit win, though. The foul calls have been so disparate (Last 2 games = Boston: 68 FTs, Miami: 28 FTs) that it’s hard to ever feel overly secure in an under play. I do like how they’re guarding Tatum, however, and the up/down nature of Tatum’s developing offensive prowess should lead to a down performance tonight. That shouldn’t hurt the Heat or our under play, that’s for sure.
MLB Picks:
Tigers/Twins over 7.5, 1.1 units to win 1
Both Rony Garcia and Dylan Bundy have a tendency to gift their batters with power opportunities, and while Bundy’s marks should improve, the young Garcia is likely due for some negative regression (4.19 xERA). I have this total at 8.5-9, I’ll take an over.
Dodgers over 5.5 runs (+110), 1 unit
Erick Fedde is allowing way too many walks per 9 innings (4.76), which has been a narrative throughout his 5 year pro career. His proclivity to permit walks is at an all-time high so far this season, and his 4.54 FIP doesn’t exactly give us hope that ol’ Fedde can fend off the bats of the Dodgers, who from what I’m seeing, seem awfully cozy smackin’ balls in the nation’s capital.
Brewers/Padres under 7.5 (-120), 1.2 units to win 1
Ashby and Darvish both got annihilated by Atlanta’s lineup in recent starts, but overall they’ve both been extremely efficient the past month. Ashby is particularly skilled at preventing big hits (0.64 HR/9 innings), though he’s allowed way too many walks. As long as neither gets exposed early, each thrower should be able to carry their team into later innings against two formidable bullpens.
French Open- We’ve been hitting parlays on big favorites early in the French Open. Here’s the one I like for tomorrow morning, March 26:
Moneyline Parlay – 1 unit to win 2 unit – (Men’s) Ruud + Medvedev + Kecmanovic + (Women’s) + Kudermetova + Pliskova
Justin Thomas pulled off an improbable comeback on Sunday to capture the PGA Championship after having just a 1.2% chance of winning heading into the final round. Mito Pereira just need to par 18 in order to win but, would end up putting his drive in the water and making double bogey. With that we had a three hole aggregate playoff between Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris, with JT coming out victorious. If you had Mito last week I’m truly sorry as the was an awful loss.
In terms of our card we wound up finishing +0.06 units which isn’t great but given our position going into Sunday, I’ll take it. We just missed out on Shane Lowry Top 20 with him finishing T23.
We now head to Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. It’s a solid field that should make for some exciting golf. The course itself is challenging despite it’s length. I’ll breakdown the event and offer a few picks this week, lets get into it.
Tournament Information:
Dates: May 26th, 2022 – May 29th, 2022
Location: Fort Worth, Texas, United States
Course: Colonial Country Club
Course Type: Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,209 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 120 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Bermudagrass
Rough: Bermudagrass 3.00″
Stimpmeter: 12.0
Purse: $8,400,000 / Winner $1,512,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 84
Water Hazards: 3 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Scoring Average:
2021: 70.21 (+0.21), Rank 18 of 51
2020: 69.57 (-0.43), Rank 13 of 41
2019: 70.86 (+0.86), Rank 7 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell (1936)
The tournament was founded 76 years ago in 1946. It’s the longest-running non-major on TOUR to be contested on the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation became the title sponsor of the event for a four-year deal starting in 2019.
The course hosted the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS. Like Southern Hills, Colonial is another Maxwell design that is set to undergo a Gil Hanse renovation. It was scheduled for this year but due to supply chain issues, the process will begin after the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
Colonial also has a unique tradition known as the Champion’s choice in which the former champions select two deserving young players, who otherwise would be ineligible, to compete in the tournament. In addition to the $1.5 million dollar purse the winner also receives an official Scottish tartan plaid jacket.
Most tournament wins: Ben Hogan (5); 1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Colonial Country Club is a Par 70 course that plays just over 7,200 yards. The course itself isn’t that long as it ranks around Tour average. However, it does have other aspects that make it one of the tougher courses on Tour as seen by the historic scoring averages.
Accuracy off the tee will be one of the main paths to success this week at Colonial. Most of the fairways are extremely narrow and tree lined. The bombers will not have the advantage that we saw last week at Southern Hill. Setting up your approach shots will be crucial this week as these greens rank 7th smallest on Tour. Greens in Regulation will be a key stat that you also want to look at this week. Putting is also something to note as five of the past six winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Putting for the week.
In terms of the course, we see a majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The two Par 5’s play over 550 yards with the first hole being the only one reachable in two. The four Par 3’s all play 190 or over with holes 13 and 16 being the only two that played under par last year.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Driving Accuracy
Greens in Regulation %
Par 3 Efficiency: 175-200 Yards
Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards
Course History
The Field/ Odds:
We have a solid field for the Charles Schwab Invitational. The quality of the field is always a little questionable after a major championship. Out of this field of 120, we have five of the OWGR top 10 players.
Jordan Spieth (+1200), is one of the favorites this week and deservedly so. After missing the cut at the Masters Spieth has turned his game around. He won the RBC Heritage Classic and finished 2nd at the AT&T Byron Nelson before finishing T34 at the PGA Championship last week. Spieth won this event back in 2016 and finished runner up in 2015 and 2017. In his nine appearances at this event he has only finished outside the Top 10 twice.
Justin Thomas (+1200), is coming off a win at the PGA Championship last week. This was his first win on Tour this season. Despite only winning once this year, he has finished inside the top 10 in seven of his last ten tournaments. He has only played in this event twice, finishing 10th in 2020 and 40th in 2021.
Scottie Scheffler (+1200), is coming off his first missed cut of this season. With already four wins under his belt this season the odds clearly indicate that they expect him to bounce back. He has played in this event twice before finishing 55th in 2020 and missing the cut in 2021.
Collin Morikawa (+1800), returns to Colonial a place that he’s had moderate success. He was the runner up in 2020 and finished 14th in 2021. However, he’s not coming into this event in great form finishing outside the top 20 in his last three tournaments.
Previous winners in the field; Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, Zach Johnson, and Rory Sabbatini
Notable Withdraws: Bryson Dechambeau (wrist)
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
When you think of Colonial Country Club it’s hard not to think of Jordan Spieth. I usually try to avoid playing the favorites but he’s a must play this week given his recent form and course history. I talked about him in “The Field/ Odds” section but I’ll expand on him a bit more here. While his putting hasn’t been great lately, since 2016 he ranks 3rd in the field in SG: Putting at Colonial. His approach game has been unbelievable as of late and if he can putt even moderately well I think he gets his second win in four events.
Talor Gooch (+4100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units
Talor Gooch is one of the best approach players on the Tour ranking 20th in SG: Approach. He’s had an amazing year capturing his first win back at the RSM Classic earlier this season. As of late his games been pretty consistent making the cut in four of his last five events. In those four events, he never finished worse than T21. He’s played at Colonial three times before and is coming off his best finish of 14th last year. Gooch has struggled in terms of SG: Off the Tee but has gained strokes in that category in each of his last three events. His putting is also worry some but again has gained strokes in that category in four of his last five events.
Brian Harman (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
In Harman’s last eight appearances at Colonial Country Club he has never finished worse than 31st. Over the course of those eight appearances he has finished inside the top 10 three times. He’s coming off a T34 at the PGA Championship and T9 at the Wells Fargo.. Harman’s ranks highly in terms of accuracy off the tee which is needed for this week. Where he struggled is his approach but has gained +1.24 and +1.35 strokes on approach in his last two events. In those events he’s gained strokes in nearly every category which bodes well for an event he’s done well at in the past.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Abraham Ancer (+165) – Caesars
Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
Abraham Ancer is another guy that looks to be rounding into form. Since missing the cut at the Masters he has made the cut in three consecutive events. At the PGA Championship last week he finished T9. Ancer has had success at Colonial finishing inside the top 20 in both of his last appearances (2020, 2021). He’s extremely accurate off the tee and is a solid putter. The issue for him has been his ball striking but gained 1.23 strokes on approach last week. I’m hoping he builds on that performance and uses his course knowledge to excel here again.
Tony Finau (+170) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Tony Finau has made the cut in his last six events. In his last three appearances at Colonial Country Club he finished; 2-23-20. His accuracy off the tee is a concern but given the length he won’t need to pull out driver as much. He ranks 27th or better in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, and SG: Tee to Green. Finau’s putting has is also a bit of a worry but in his last two tournaments he has gained strokes. Last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished T30, he gained strokes in every major category. He’s been playing well and given his recent finishes here I like him to crack the top 20.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Emiliano Grillo (+200) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Grillo has struggled this season but looks to be turning it around. After The Genesis Invitational where he finished T21, he missed five consecutive cuts. However, in his last two events he finished T33 and T46. In those tournaments he gained strokes in four of the five major categories which is encouraging. Grillo has also had some success at Colonial in this past finishing T40 or better in four of his last five appearances, most notably finishing 8th here last year. Given his recent performances and course history, I like him to continue to trend upward and finish inside the top 40 here.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Charles Schwab Challenge: 4.03 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
